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US Midterm Elections 2018: What Is at Stake for the Middle East?

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US Midterm Elections 2018: What Is at Stake for the Middle East? INFO PACK US Midterm Elections 2018: What is at Stake for the Middle East? INFO PACK US Midterm Elections 2018: What is at Stake for the Middle East? Mary SALIBA Merve KESKİN Humza AZAM US Midterm Elections 2018: What is at Stake for the Middle East? © TRT WORLD RESEARCH CENTRE ALL RIGHTS RESERVED WRITTEN BY Mary Saliba * Merve Keskin ** Humza Azam *** PUBLISHER TRT WORLD RESEARCH CENTRE November 2018 PHOTO CREDIT ANADOLU AGENCY TRT WORLD İSTANBUL AHMET ADNAN SAYGUN STREET NO:83 34347 ULUS, BEŞİKTAŞ İSTANBUL / TURKEY TRT WORLD LONDON PORTLAND HOUSE 4 GREAT PORTLAND STREET NO:4 LONDON / UNITED KINGDOM TRT WORLD WASHINGTON D.C. 1819 L STREET NW SUITE, 700 20036 WASHINGTON DC / UNITED STATES www.trtworld.com researchcentre.trtworld.com * Mary Saliba Mary Saliba is an Istanbul based journalist with TRT World. She has special expertise in Middle East political, security, legal and humanitarian affairs. Mary contributed extensively to Al Jazeera’s global news coverage of the “Arab Spring” and has moderated several intergovernmental panels on peace-building and the eradication of violence. She has provided international commentary on religious affairs and cultural diversity. ** Merve Keskin Merve Keskin is an Associate Researcher at TRT World Research Center. She holds a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science and International Relations from the Marmara University. She is currently a post graduate student at Istanbul Sehir University in the same department. Her research interests are non-state actors, political violence and terrorism, proxy wars, Iranian foreign policy. *** Humza Azam Humza Azam is an intern at the TRT World Research Centre. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in History from the İstanbul Şehir University. He is currently a post graduate student at the Boğaziçi University. His research interests include South Asia, Ottoman history, and the contemporary politics of Pakistan. 4 US Midterm Elections 2018: What is at Stake for the Middle East? Overview he November 2018 mid-term The Trump administration has been success- elections in the United States ful in revoking nearly 130 policies (concerning (U.S.) have been the subject health care, environmental laws, governmental of global attention, and for reforms, and immigration), failed to do so on good reason. Almost two 22, and currently is in the process of reviewing years after the election of another 37. Given the slim majority held by the Donald Trump as President, Republicans, the mid-term election results not Tthe elections are an important indicator of how only reflect the popularity of these changes, but well Republican policies have been faring in the will also impact the future approval or rejection eyes of the public. of these reforms. The stakes were high from the beginning: a As of November 7th 2018, the Democrats have continued Republican majority in both hous- succeeded in wresting a 223-seat majority in the es would mean an overall acceptance of the House of Representatives, leaving the Republi- administration’s existing policies (subjecting cans in the minority with only 197 seats. While much of the policies instated by the Obama the Republicans succeeded in retaining their 51- administration to Congressional review, an in- seat majority in the Senate, the loss of their ma- wards-looking “America First” foreign policy, and jority in the House of Representatives will have anti-immigration measures, among others). On lasting consequences for the domestic policies the other hand, they also presented the outnum- of the US. bered Democrats with a golden opportunity to restrict Republican policy-making and legisla- With this new majority, the Democrats have tion not just in rhetoric, but also in practice. greater power to block new Republican legisla- tion, turn back potential reversals of Obama-era The mid-terms affect the composition of both policies, as well as impeach and prevent the houses of Congress: the Senate and the House of appointment of Republican-selected officials to Representatives, where the Republican held ma- key posts in the federal government. The mid- jorities. Until the beginning of November 2018, terms have also led to greater representation of the 435-seat House of Representatives was com- minority groups and women: Ayanna Presley posed of a 235-seat Republican majority and became the first black female representative a 193-seat Democrat minority. In the 100-seat from Massachusetts in Congress, while Rashida Senate, the Republicans very narrowly outnum- Tlaib and Ilhan Omar (who is a Somali refugee) bered the Democrats 51-49. While the potential became the first Muslim women to be elected to margin for change was relatively small - approx- Congress representing Michigan and Minnesota imately 30 seats were estimated to be shaken up respectively. Deb Haaland of New Mexico and in the House of Representatives, and nearly 6 in Sharice Davids of Kansas, both became the first the Senate – in both cases there existed a poten- Native American Congresswomen. tial to break the Republican majority and consid- erably strengthen the Democrat’s hand The impact of the mid-terms extends beyond dissatisfaction with the Trump administration’s Since 2017, the Republican administration under domestic policies and greater representation of Donald Trump has made efforts to repeal many minorities in Congress. Many across the globe of President Obama’s domestic reforms, which have been watching carefully to assess whether has been met with great ire by the Democrats. the “America First” doctrine of increased protec- Trump’s populist rhetoric has left an increas- tionism, unilateral sanctions and increasing dis- ingly polarized electorate in its wake, which has engagement from international cooperation will butted heads on key issues, such as abortion, remain a lasting feature of the US government’s immigration laws, health care, and employment. foreign policy. 5 US Midterm Elections 2018: What is at Stake for the Middle East? The Democratic victory in the House of Represent- Nevertheless, the Republicans continue to hold atives also means that the Republicans may face a majority in the Senate, and the foreign policy is a number of investigations and probes in to cases likely to remain faithful to the “America First” doc- which ignited controversy last year: the accusa- trine. While Democrats may repeal anti-immigrant tions of Russian meddling in the 2016 elections, as legislation, advocate a stronger US stance on hu- well as the Trump family’s business dealings in Chi- manitarian catastrophes such as in Yemen, and in- na and Saudi Arabia. In light of the murder of Saudi vestigate the legality of the international business journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Congress has already dealings of the Trump family, their general focus prompted the Trump administration to put greater appears to be on curtailing Republican influence pressure on the Saudi government. Similarly, the in domestic policy issues. There appears to be no defeat is a symbolic blow for states pursuing sim- serious intention to revoke the fresh sanctions on ilar populist, anti-immigrant policies throughout Iran, or to otherwise bring in any major change in Latin America and the Middle East, as it was their the US’s policies towards the Middle East or China, popularity in the US which gave them increased le- among others. gitimacy in the international political arena. Muslim Women in Congress Rashida Tlaib Ilhan Omar Rashida Tlaib is a daughter Ilhan Omar is a of a Palestinian immigrant Somali American family and is now one of politician from the first Muslim Woman Minnesota who to be elected in Congress. won the general She won the Democratic election for US primary in Michigan’s 13th Congressional Districts Representatives made up of portions of Detroit and its suburbs. In in Minnesota’s 5th 2008 she became the first woman to serve in the congressional district, becoming one of first Michigan Legislature. She served three terms in Muslim woman to be elected in the US con- the House, becoming the Democratic leader of gress. Ilhan was born in Mogadishu, Somalia, the powerful Appropriations Committee, where and after the civil-war broke out her family she provided transformative constituent services. lived as refugees for four years in Kenya and Her campaign biography emphasizes working on then moved to the US in 1997. In 2016 Ilhan education, universal health care, after-school pro- became the first Somali-American Muslim grams for children, and Meals on Wheels nutrition legislator in the United States and through her programs for senior citizens. After serving three advocacy worked on and advanced pressing terms in the state legislature, she worked as an at- issues, including support for working families, torney and advocate for the non-profit Sugar Law educational access, environmental protec- Center and Economic and Social Justice in Detroit, tion, and racial equity. In 2018, Omar filed to and held a strong stance on campaigning against run for U.S. Representative after Keith Ellison the anti-Arab and Anti Muslim sentiments in the US. announced that he would not seek reelection. During the elections for House of Representatives During the midterm elections, Ilhan achieved she ran in succession of John Conyer’s seat in the a breakthrough victory against Republican Congress and on 6th November, she defeated Bren- party’s Jennifer Zielinski by receiving 78.2 da Jones and Bill Wild by receiving 84.8% of votes. percent votes 6 US Midterm Elections 2018: What is at Stake for the Middle East? 1. How will Trump Lead the Country with a Divided Congress? Before the midterm elections, the legislative and executive The numbers also validated the existence of an ever- bodies were in the hands of a single party, namely the deepening gulf that separates urban and suburban Republican Party. Now that the Democratic Party has won America on the one hand, and rural America on the other.
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