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Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in ZIMBABWE Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Zimbabwe

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Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in ZIMBABWE Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Zimbabwe RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in ZIMBABWE Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Zimbabwe Funded by ‘Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme’ (ASAP) Phase 2. International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) Produced by the University of Cape Town Undertaken in support of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) by: African Climate & Development Initiative (www.acdi.uct.ac.za) Climate System Analysis Group (www.csag.uct.ac.za) Environmental Policy Research Unit (www.epru.uct.ac.za) Recommended citation: Hunter. R., Crespo. O., Coldrey, K, Cronin, K, New, M. 2020. Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Zimbabwe. University of Cape Town, South Africa, undertaken in support of Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme’ (ASAP) Phase 2. International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Rome. The content and presentation of material in this report is the sole responsibility of the Authors and does not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Fund for Agricultural Development of the United Nations. The project team gratefully acknowledges the support of IFAD towards this research, and in particular the staff of the SIRP project. In addition, the diverse contributions by Mr Tawanda Mutyambizi of Taonabiz Consulting towards the study’s stakeholder consultations are noted with appreciation. The project team thanks the various stakeholders and contributors who have shared their knowledge and time during this study. CONTENTS Background and context . 1 Summary results . 2 Method and Approach . 3 Impacts........................................................................................3 Figure 1. Demonstration example of the distribution of crop suitability index. generated using EcoCrop ........4 Adaptive Capacity ...............................................................................5 Table 1. Ranked Adaptive Capacity (AC) indicator scores for all regions of Zimbabwe........................5 Climate projections . 6 Projected changes to Temperature in Zimbabwe by 2050 . 6 Table 2. Projected influence of climate change on mean monthly temperature (°C) in Zimbabwe at Historical and Mid-Century periods, and monthly anomalies between the two time periods ..............................6 Climate – projected changes to rainfall in Zimbabwe by 2050 . 7 Table 3. Projected influence of climate change on mean monthly precipitation (mm/month) in Zimbabwe at Historical and Mid-Century periods, and monthly anomalies between the two time periods ..................7 Climate change and its effect on crops: BEANS . 8 Climate change and its effect on crops: GROUNDNUTS . 10 Climate change and its effect on crops: MAIZE . 12 Climate change and its effect on crops: MILLET . 14 Climate change and its effect on crops: SORGHUM . 16 Summary of findings, recommendations, adaptation strategies and climate-resilient alternative for smallholder farmers . 18 Appendix tables . 20 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN ZIMBABWE BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT The Adaptation for Smallholder potential change in the suitability provinces and distribution of agro- Agriculture Programme (ASAP) is of various crops under projected ecological regions is provided in the a flagship programme within the climate changes; and iii) potential Appendix section (Figure 1). International Fund for Agricultural risks and economic impacts related Zimbabwe’s agricultural production Development’s (IFAD’s) portfolio to climate change, as well as is mainly characterised by relatively of activities aimed at channelling potential adaptation options and low productivity of a small selection climate and environmental finance opportunities to increase climate of staple cereal and legume crops to smallholder farmers, and which resilience. The following report (including maize, sorghum, millet, allows IFAD country programmes provides a brief summary of beans, groundnuts and soyabeans). to design projects which integrate highlighted results for Zimbabwe, Rainfed agriculture, practiced by considerations of the impacts of including: i) projected changes smallholder farmers, accounts for climate change on smallholder to temperature and precipitation the vast majority of the planted area. farmers. To support the integration as a result of climate change; and In addition to rainfed production of climate information and improved ii) impacts of climate change on of staple crops, cash crops such knowledge of climate related risks the future suitability of several as tobacco and to a lesser degree to the smallholder agriculture major crops and resulting impacts cotton are widely grown. In certain sector, IFAD commissioned a on production across each of the areas, horticultural vegetable crops Climate Risk Analysis to assess the country’s ten Provinces. are an important contributor to potential impacts of climate change agricultural households, while on several crops and commodities AGRICULTURE IN relatively small areas of higher in Zimbabwe. rainfall such as in the Eastern The full Climate Risk Analysis report ZIMBABWE Highlands supports various high- (accessible via the IFAD Country Zimbabwe is geographically value sub-tropical plantation crops page 1 provides an analysis of inter divided into six distinct Agro- such as citrus, avocado, tea and alia i) the current and future climate Ecological regions across a total of coffee. characteristics of Zimbabwe; ii) the 10 provinces. A map of Zimbabwe’s 1 https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/country/id/Zimbabwe SUMMARY RESULTS The likely effects of climate change predicted to experience increasing seasons, or alternatively a decrease are not fully consistent between delays or inconsistencies in the in the effective duration of the rainy each of Zimbabwe’s ten provinces onset of rainfall, and an overall season. Overall, the predicted trend or the crops assessed, however, decrease in the annual and seasonal for annual precipitation is a long- several general observations precipitation between the present term trend of decreasing rainfall, can be made. However, several day and the ‘Mid-Century’ future as well as possible shifts in the general observations can be (defined by the period 2040–2069). timing of rainy seasons. Modelled made. For example, all provinces Average monthly rainfall is predicted predictions for national average in the study area are predicted to to decrease in all provinces, precipitation indicate a decrease experience increasing temperatures including during the months of of mean annual rainfall from 620 throughout the year, indicated September, October and November mm to 526 mm, representing a by increased average monthly which are considered to be the start decrease of 95 mm or 15% - the ‘Mean Temperature’ as well as of the rainy season. These results predicted decrease of rainfall across average ‘Minimum Temperature’. may be indicative of a delay in the country’s provinces and Natural CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN ZIMBABWE 1 Furthermore, all provinces are the onset of the traditional rainy Regions ranges from 14-19%. The full study includes analyses of the result of lost production is estimated of each community to manage predicted effect of climate change to be USD 88.8 million per year. and respond to climate risks. on various crops, including inter alia Matabeleland North is consistently In the case of other staple crops cereals such as maize, sorghum and among the provinces predicted such as beans and groundnuts, it pearl millet, and legumes such as to experience the largest crop is predicted that households will common beans and groundnuts in production impacts for all five crops experience a minor or moderate each of Zimbabwe’s ten Provinces. assessed. These crop production decrease in annual production. The combined effects of reduced impacts are of particular concern Mashonaland Central and precipitation and increased given that Matabeleland North Mashonaland West are likely to temperatures are likely to result in was also identified as the province be particularly vulnerable to the negative impacts on all of the crops with the second lowest adaptive predicted changes on production of assessed. The annual production capacity score out of eight provinces beans, as a result of the combined of beans, groundnut, maize and (excluding Harare and Bulawayo), effect of their large exposure to sorghum is expected to be negatively based on a number of socio-economic climate related impacts as well impacted by increased temperatures and agronomic characteristics, and is as their relatively low adaptive and reduced or delayed rainfall, therefore anticipated to be one of capacities. However, all provinces thereby causing a reduction in the the least able to respond to climate are expected to experience negative extent of suitable production areas change-related impacts. As a result, impacts. In total, it is estimated that as well as reducing the productivity Matabeleland North is particularly the annual production of beans of remaining areas. Pearl millet vulnerable and should be prioritised across all provinces will be reduced is likely to be comparatively less for adaptation interventions. affected by the predicted climate by 3,300 tonnes, and the resultant It is important to note that the changes, and may serve as an annual cost of climate-related following analyses are based on appropriate alternative staple to impacts
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