U.S.– China Relations: China Policy on Capitol Hill
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U.S.–China Relations With China’s rapid ascendance to great power status, the U.S.–China rela- tionship has become one of the most important international relationships in the world today. This book explores relations between the U.S. and China, focusing in particular on China policy-making in the U.S. Congress, which has been unusually active in the development of this relationship. Based on detailed analysis of China bills introduced in Congress over the past three decades, it provides detailed analysis of how Congressional policy-making works in practice, and explores the most controversial issues in U.S.–China relations: Taiwan, trade and human rights. It considers the voting patterns and party divisions on these issues, showing that liberals and conservatives often form an alliance concerning China because China’s authoritarian regime, human rights problems, soaring trade surplus with the U.S and rising military power attract criticism from both camps. It also argues that congres- sional committees, bicameralism and presidential veto make it virtually impossible for Congress to legislate on China, despite its intense preferences, and therefore Congress often turns to informal—but no less effective—means to exert influence on China policy, such as framing public opinion and gener- ating situations that result in anticipated reactions by the executive branch or Beijing. Tao Xie is Assistant Professor at the American Studies Centre, Beijing For- eign Studies University, China. He holds a Ph.D. in political science. His primary research interests are U.S. Congress and American electoral behavior. 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Marketos Regime legitimacy in contemporary China Institutional change and stability Edited by Thomas Heberer and Gunter Schubert U.S.–China Relations China policy on Capitol Hill Tao Xie U.S.–China Relations China Policy on Capitol Hill Tao Xie First published 2009 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 270 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2008. “To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.” © 2009 Tao Xie All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Tao, Xie, 1973– U.S.–China relations : China policy on Capitol Hill / Tao Xie. p. cm—(Routledge contemporary China series) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. United States—Foreign relations—China. 2. China—Foreign relations—United States. 3. United States—Foreign relations—1945– 1989. 4. United States—Foreign relations—1989-. 5. United States. Congress—Decision making. 6. Taiwan—Strategic aspects. 7. United States—Commerce—China. 8. China—Commerce— United States. 9. Human rights—China. I. Title. II. Title: United States—China relations. E183.8.C5T36 2008 327.73051—dc22 2008014023 ISBN 0-203-89014-0 Master e-book ISBN ISBN10: 0–415–77688–0 (hbk) ISBN10: 0–203–89014–0 (ebk) ISBN13: 978–0–415–77688–2 (hbk) ISBN13: 978–0–203–89014–1 (ebk) To Zhang Can Contents List of figures xi List of tables xiii Acknowledgments xv Introduction 1 Congress and foreign policy 2 Why China? 5 Contributions of the book 9 Structure of the book 10 1 The new institutionalism and legislative behavior 13 The new institutionalism 13 Determinants of roll call voting on foreign policy 19 Methodology 23 2 Congressional efforts to punish China 26 Collection of China bills 27 Number and nature of China bills 29 What influences the ebb and flow of China bills? 34 3Effects of congressional activism on China policy 43 Bicameralism 43 Congressional committees 48 Presidential veto 50 More bark than bite? 52 Why so many China bills? 54 Does Congress matter in China policy? 55 4 Congress and U.S.–China trade relations 60 Booming economic ties 60 x Contents Congress and U.S.–China Trade 63 Legislative battle over PNTR 65 5 Congress and Taiwan 78 Historical ties between Congress and Taiwan 79 Congressional attempts to enhance U.S.–Taiwan relations 82 6 Congress and China’s human rights 100 Before Tiananmen: China as the exception 101 Tiananmen: the dividing line 104 MFN renewal and congressional efforts to change human rights in China 108 7 Beyond the case of China 122 Selection of cases 123 Theoretical expectations 129 8 Conclusion 142 Legislative institutions and their impact on China policy 142 The international environment and Congress’s China policy 144 Determinants of roll call voting on foreign policy 145 Policy implications 149 A look into the future 154 Appendix: Sources 157 Source of China bills and coding scheme 157 Sources of other quantitative data 157 Notes 161 Bibliography 177 Index 199 List of figures 2.1 Classification of China bills (including amendments), 1973–2006 32 2.2 Time trend of China bills (including amendments), 1973–2006 33 2.3 Favorability ratings of China on 10-point scale, 1954–2001 37 2.4 Favorability ratings of China on four-category scale, 1977–2006 38 3.1 House–Senate ratios for China bills and bills in general (excluding amendments), 93rd–109th Congresses 44 3.2 Number of China bills (excluding amendments) by policy type and chamber, 1973–2006 45 5.1 Time trend of Taiwan bills introduced in each chamber, 1973–2006 82 6.1 Bills concerning China’s human rights, 1989–2006 106 6.2 Time trend of bills relating to China’s MFN status, 1973–2006 109 7.1 U.S. trade deficit with Japan, 1962–2006 125 List of tables 2.1 House China bills by policy and type, 1973–2006 29 2.2 Senate China bills by policy and type, 1973–2006 31 2.3 Determinants of the number of China bills (excluding amendments) introduced in the House, 1973–2006 39 2.4 Determinants of the number of China bills (excluding amendments) introduced in the Senate, 1973–2006 41 3.1 Frequency of the number of China bills (excluding amendments) by chief sponsor and chamber, 1973–2006 46 3.2 Members of Congress who introduced ten or more China bills (excluding amendments), 1973–2006 47 3.3 Freestanding China bills enacted into law, 1973–2006 53 4.1 U.S.–China trade in goods, 1973–2006 61 4.2 U.S. imports of selected commodities from China in 1989–2005 62 4.3 Logit analysis of the House vote on HR 4444 72 4.4 Increases in probabilities associated with one standard deviation increase in independent variables (HR 4444) 73 5.1 House roll call votes on the Taiwan Relations Act 85 5.2 Senate roll call votes on the Taiwan Relations Act 86 5.3 U.S.