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Grantham Institute's Tenth Anniversary Year
Each year, a distinguished speaker is invited to deliver the Grantham Annual Lecture to business- leaders, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, students and the public. Read how some of these past speakers reflect on ten years of environmental and climate action achievements, and catch up with their lectures at imperial.ac.uk/grantham Congratulations to the Grantham Institute on its tenth year in pursuit of a worthy goal of sustainable, resilient, zero carbon society. AL GORE, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 2017 ANNUAL LECTURER I was honoured to give the 8th Grantham Lecture, I loved that so many students attended as they are our hope to motivate future generations to challenge climate change and injustice. MARY ROBINSON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF IRELAND 2015 ANNUAL LECTURER It was an honour and pleasure to address the Grantham Institute due to its significance and all the people that contribute to its greatness. HIS SERENE HIGHNESS PRINCE ALBERT II OF MONACO Grantham Institute’s 2018 ANNUAL LECTURER tenth anniversary year The work that is being done by the Grantham Institute is absolutely key because it will keep Celebrating the past and looking to the future countries moving forward understanding that decarbonisation is actually a huge opportunity. CHRISTIANA FIGUERES, FORMER EXECUTIVE SECRETARY OF THE UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE 2016 ANNUAL LECTURER The Grantham Institute promotes inter-disciplinary The Grantham Institute’s vision is for a working to meet some of the greatest challenges faced by society. Over ten years, the Institute has built up sustainable, resilient, zero-carbon society successful programmes that drive forward discovery, convert innovations into applications, train future leaders The Institute seeks to achieve its vision by working and communicate academic knowledge to businesses, in the following ways: industry and policymakers to help shape their decisions. -
The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones
Current Climate Change Reports https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4 MID-LATITUDE PROCESSES AND CLIMATE CHANGE (I SIMPSON, SECTION EDITOR) The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones Jennifer L. Catto1 & Duncan Ackerley2 & James F. Booth3 & Adrian J. Champion1 & Brian A. Colle4 & Stephan Pfahl5 & Joaquim G. Pinto6 & Julian F. Quinting6 & Christian Seiler7 # The Author(s) 2019 Abstract Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes. Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures. Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones. Keywords Extratropical cyclones . Climate change . Windstorms . Idealized model . CMIP models Introduction These features are a vital part of the global circulation and bring a large proportion of precipitation to the midlatitudes, The way in which most people will experience climate change including very heavy precipitation events [1–5], which can is via changes to the weather where they live. -
The History Group's Silver Jubilee
History of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography Special Interest Group Newsletter 1, 2010 ANNUAL REPORT CONTENTS We asked in the last two newsletters if you Annual Report ........................................... 1 thought the History Group should hold an Committee members ................................ 2 Annual General Meeting. There is nothing in Mrs Jean Ludlam ...................................... 2 the By-Law s or Standing Orders of the Royal Meteorological Society that requires the The 2010 Summer Meeting ..................... 3 Group to hold one, nor does Charity Law Report of meeting on 18 November .......... 4 require one. Which papers have been cited? .............. 10 Don’t try this at home! ............................. 10 Only one person responded, and that was in More Richard Gregory reminiscences ..... 11 passing during a telephone conversation about something else. He was in favour of Storm warnings for seafarers: Part 2 ....... 13 holding an AGM but only slightly so. He Swedish storm warnings ......................... 17 expressed the view that an AGM provides an Rikitea meteorological station ................. 19 opportunity to put forward ideas for the More on the D-Day forecast .................... 20 Group’s committee to consider. Recent publications ................................ 21 As there has been so little response, the Did you know? ........................................ 22 Group’s committee has decided that there will Date for your diary .................................. 23 not be an AGM this year. Historic picture ........................................ 23 2009 members of the Group ................... 24 CHAIRMAN’S REVIEW OF 2009 by Malcolm Walker year. Sadly, however, two people who have supported the Group for many years died during I begin as I did last year. Without an enthusiastic 2009. David Limbert passed away on 3 M a y, and conscientious committee, there would be no and Jean Ludlam died in October (see page 2). -
Return Periods of Losses Associated with European Windstorm Series in a Changing Climate
Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate J.G. Pinto (a,b) M.K. Karremann (b) M. Reyers (b) M. Klawa (c) (a) Univ. Reading, UK (b) Univ. Cologne, Germany (c) Deutsche Rück, Germany Contact: [email protected] 1 Joaquim G. Pinto Bern 01 Sept. 2015 Motivation - European Storm Climatology, Top 15 Events Storm Storm Economic Damage Storm Name Fatalities rank Year Actual (USD) 1 1999 Lothar 137 11,350,000,000 2 2007 Kyrill 47 10,000,000,000 1990 season 3 1990 Daria 97 7,000,000,000 1999 season 4 2010 Xynthia 64 6,100,000,000 5 1999 Martin 90 6,000,000,000 6 2009 Klaus 28 6,000,000,000 7 2005 Erwin 18 5,505,000,000 8 1976 Capella 0 5,000,000,000 9 1987 Great Storm of 1987 23 4,000,000,000 10 1990 Vivian 50 3,500,000,000 11 1999 Anatol 27 3,000,000,000 12 2002 Jeanett 38 2,531,000,000 13 1995 Thalia 28 2,310,000,000 Multiple occurrences per year may be critical 14 1990 Wiebke 67 2,260,000,000 for contractual reasons 15 1990 Herta 30 1,960,000,000 Source: Perils 2 Joaquim G. Pinto Bern 01 Sept. 2015 Serial clustering of cyclones over North Atlantic / Europe Physical processes: a) Steering by large-scale patterns b) Secondary cyclogenesis (cyclone families) Jet stream, NAO++ Dispersion Dispersion statistics Ψ <0: serial regularity All P95 Ψ =0: serial randomness Ψ >0: serial clustering Sources: Pinto et al., 2009, Clim. -
Prof. Sir Brian Hoskins
Welcome! Agenda The Challenge of Climate Change What Reading is doing Reading Climate Action Network Reading Business Climate Action Network One business’ story – Field and Hawken Q&A Trees – why Thames Lido story Planting the first Tree for Reading Thank you to Blake Morgan for breakfast! Help us to make Reading a better place to live and work www.ethicalreading.org.uk The Challenge of Climate Change Brian Hoskins Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading Chair, Grantham Institute for Climate Change Imperial College London Measured Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Global Mean Surface Temperature 1850-2018 Ed Hawkins Arctic Sea ice Sep 2019 Global average sea level change 1992- 2018 1981-2010 average NSIDC Projections of surface temperature change 1986-2005 to 2081-2100 for a continued emissions growth scenario IPCC 2013 Global surface temperature changes Royal Society, November 2018 4 °C If emissions continue to increase at their present rate If current promises by countries are carried out 3 °C International target before Paris 2 °C Paris agreement below 2°C Basis for UK target in 2008 Climate Change Act Paris aspiration 1.5 °C 1 °C Today and increasing at rate 1°C per 50 years 0 °C Pre-Industrial The UK Climate Change Act Climate change mitigation • 80% reduction by 2050 • 5 year carbon budgets – legally binding • Requirement to develop policies and proposals to meet budgets Preparing for climate change • Established independent advisory body – Committee 5 yearly Climate Change on Climate Change (CCC) Risk Assessment (CCRA) & National Adaptation Plan www.theccc.org.uk Climate Change Committee June 2018 Progress Report to Parliament 1. -
I Don't Think I Need to Remind Anyone Here What a Catastrophic Event The
I don’t think I need to remind anyone here what a catastrophic event The Great Storm of 1987 was. In the build-up to its 30th anniversary last month we were treated to almost round the clock coverage in the media – on its meteorological back story - its violent trajectory across the southern half of the country - and everything from well-publicised and embarrassing forecasting failures - to the exponential loss of trees. I have a very personal reason for writing this book and this evening, I’d like to tell you how I came to write it, and where it all began; what I learned about storms and what this one, in particular, taught us and also how the themes of the title, Landscape, Legacy and Loss - came to define my own unique perspective - in the reframing and retelling of this powerful, collective national memory - 30 years on. 1 But let’s start with the weather… As our lifestyles change - as fewer of us work outdoors or have our livelihoods influenced by the weather – we’re much less affected by it than we used to be. This gradual disconnection from the outside world, means that weather events need to be truly exceptional before they stick in our minds - and that we quickly forget all but the most extreme, the most outrageous. If you were to ask a cross section of the population to give you their most vivid weather memories - each generation would be able to tell you about their own exceptionally hot or wet summer or their coldest, most severe winter. -
Pension News Dec 14.Pdf
Pearl Group Staff Pension Scheme December 2014 PENSION news INSIDE: • Club updates pages 4-6 • Lunch at High Holborn page 7 2 Pension news It is our sad duty to tell you that Lynne Coniff, who edited Pension News for the last 13 years, passed Hello… and welcome to away on 22 November 2014. As Lynne had already prepared this the December 2014 issue of Pension News. latest edition we thought it was It seems like no time at all since I The Editor, Pearl Pension News, fitting that it should be published as introduced you to the Summer issue! First Actuarial LLP, First House, Lynne had intended. Lynne will be I’m glad to report that you’re still Minerva Business Park, Lynch Wood, missed by everyone who had the enjoying stirring up old memories Peterborough PE2 6FT. privilege of working with her and of your time with the Pearl – we’ve our thoughts are with Mike, Lynne’s Wishing you a wonderful Christmas had a couple of replies to the ‘mighty husband, and the rest of her family and a happy New Year. oaks’ article in the last issue, which at this difficult time. Lynne Coniff celebrated the 150th birthday of Pearl, Editor and the 65th birthday of the Pearl 2015 pension pay dates Pension Scheme. We also have two more ‘add the name’ challenges – one The pension pay dates for 2015 in the form of a sketch, which should are as follows: prove interesting! 23 Jan 22 May 25 Sept 25 Feb 25 June 23 Oct As always, please keep your 25 March 24 July 25 Nov contributions coming: 24 April 25 Aug 22 Dec Pension news 3 Stirring up memories Mr Alan F Lankshear Allan G Cook from Halstead, Essex wrote: “I recognised several Following the article ‘From little acorns, mighty names but one in particular prompted memories of my early oaks grow’ in the last issue, we received two days at Pearl and that is of Mr Alan F Lankshear. -
Curriculum Vitae - Dr
Curriculum Vitae - Dr. Niklas Boers CONTACT Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Research Department IV - Complexity Science Future Lab “Artificial Intelligence in the Anthropocene” Telegraphenberg A31 14473 Potsdam email: [email protected] web: www.pik-potsdam.de/members/boers research gate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Niklas Boers ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-9034 CURRENT POSITIONS Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research since 09/2019 Leader Future Lab “Artificial Intelligence in the Anthropocene” Free University Berlin since 09/2019 Junior research group leader at the Department of Mathematics and Computer Science University of Exeter since 09/2019 Senior Lecturer at the Global Systems Institute and Department of Mathematics FORMER ACADEMIC Potsdam Institut fur¨ Klimafolgenforschung 09/2018–08/2019 POSITIONS Humboldt fellow at the Department “Complexity Science” Imperial College London 09/2017–08/2018 Associate researcher at the Grantham Institute Advisors: Joanna Haigh and Brian Hoskins Ecole Normale Superieure´ de Paris 09/2015–08/2017 Humboldt fellow at the Geosciences Department and the Laboratoire de Met´ eorologie´ Dynamique Advisors: Michael Ghil and Denis-Didier Rousseau Potsdam Institut fur¨ Klimafolgenforschung 10/2011–08/2015 Guest researcher at the Department “Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods” Advisor: Jurgen¨ Kurths Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat¨ Munchen¨ 03/2011–09/2011 Associate researcher and lecture assistant at the Department of Mathematics Supervisors: Detlef Durr¨ and Peter Pickl HIGHER EDUCATION Humboldt-Universitat¨ zu Berlin PhD in Theoretical Physics 11/2011–04/2015 • Title: Complex Network Analysis of Extreme Rainfall in South America • Supervisors: Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Jurgen¨ Kurths and Prof. Dr. Jose´ Marengo • Date of Defense: April 30th 2015 Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat¨ Munchen¨ Diploma in Physics 09/2004–03/2011 • Diploma Thesis: Mean Field Limits for Classical Many Particle Systems • Supervisors: Prof. -
The Potential for Skill Across the Range of the Seamless-Weather Climate Prediction Problem
2356-13 Targeted Training Activity: ENSO-Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate 30 July - 10 August, 2012 The Potential for Skill across the range of the Seamless-Weather Climate Prediction Problem HOSKINS Brian John University of Reading, Department of Meteorology 2 Earley Gate. Whiteknights, P.O. Box 243 RG6 6BB Reading UNITED KINGDOM The Potential for Skill across the range of the Seamless-Weather Climate Prediction Problem Brian Hoskins Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK Outline of talk 1. Introduction 2. The seamless weather - climate prediction problem & the basis for prediction 3. Increasing time-scales a) 1-day b) 1-day – 1 week c) 1 week – 1month d) 1 month – seasons e) 1 year- 1 decade f) 1 decade – 1 century 4. Concluding comments Introduction Lorenz model: chaos sensitivity to initial conditions Up-scale cascade and error doubling time ~ 1-2 days Forecast error ECMWF Dynamics can lead to predictable behaviour The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere 50km Pressure (hPa) Pressure 10km Year 1979 2003 Easterly winds Westerly winds The Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction Problem Ice sheets atmospheric chemistry land moisture vegetation ocean skin upper full region global atmosphere 1day 1week 1month 1season 1year 1 decade 1 century Fronts Cyclones MJO ENSO PDO Convective NAO AMO systems Blocks QBO The Prediction Problem t shorter time-scale of interest longer slave phenomena free external •Observations → initial conditions •Ensembles -
News and New IPRC Staff
IPRC NEWS The IPRC 10th Anniversary sea-level rise. In age, the students ranged from kindergarten to high school. They were fascinated by the images displayed The IPRC marked the completion of 10 years of scientific on the Magic Planet, as were their parents, and asked many achievements with a series of events in May 2008. The pre- questions about the animations displayed on this truly magi- vious issue of the IPRC Climate described the special IPRC cal sphere. Annual Symposium held on May 5 and 6 at the East-West A final event in our celebration was an informal review Center. In their invited symposium talks, University of To- workshop on May 16, in which younger IPRC scientists kyo Professor Toshio Yamagata remembered the history and showcased their research. evolution of the IPRC, and University of Maryland Profes- sor Antonio Busalacchi described the scientific accomplish- Bin Wang Elected AMS Fellow! ments of the IPRC over the last 10 years and speculated about IPRC’s future in the international climate research commu- IPRC Team Leader and Professor nity. In the evening of May 5, the IPRC staff held a reception of Meteorology Bin Wang has been and dinner to honor Jay McCreary’s service as IPRC Direc- elected Fellow of the American Me- tor and to mark Professor Yamagata’s 60th birthday. teorological Society (AMS) for his On May 9 the IPRC held an Open House for local school “outstanding contributions to the children and their parents. About 40 homeschooled stu- atmospheric and related oceanic dents and their parents came to watch animations with the and hydrologic sciences during a Magic Planet, a smaller version of the NOAA Science On a substantial period of years.” The Sphere. -
Volume 3: Process Issues Raised by Petitioners
EPA’s Response to the Petitions to Reconsider the Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act Volume 3: Process Issues Raised by Petitioners U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Atmospheric Programs Climate Change Division Washington, D.C. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 3.0 Process Issues Raised by Petitioners............................................................................................5 3.1 Approaches and Processes Used to Develop the Scientific Support for the Findings............................................................................................................................5 3.1.1 Overview..............................................................................................................5 3.1.2 Issues Regarding Consideration of the CRU E-mails..........................................6 3.1.3 Assessment of Issues Raised in Public Comments and Re-Raised in Petitions for Reconsideration...............................................................................7 3.1.4 Summary............................................................................................................19 3.2 Response to Claims That the Assessments by the USGCRP and NRC Are Not Separate and Independent Assessments.........................................................................20 3.2.1 Overview............................................................................................................20 3.2.2 EPA’s Response to Petitioners’ -
The Great Storm of 1987: 20-Year Retrospective
THE GREAT STORM OF 1987: 20-YEAR RETROSPECTIVE RMS Special Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Great Storm of October 15–16, 1987 hit northern France and southern England with unexpected ferocity. Poorly forecast, unusually strong, and occurring early in the winter windstorm season, this storm — known in the insurance industry as “87J” — has been ascribed negative consequences beyond its direct effects, including severe loss amplification, and according to one theory, the precipitation of a major global stock market downturn. Together with other catastrophic events of the late 1980s and early 1990s, the storm brought some companies to financial ruin, while at the same time creating new business opportunities for others. The global reinsurance industry in particular was forced to adapt to survive. In this climate, the way was clear for new capital to enter the market, and for the development of innovative ways to assess and transfer the financial risk from natural hazards and other perils. Twenty years following the 1987 event, this report chronicles the unique features of the storm and the potential impact of the event should it occur in 2007, in the context of RMS’ current understanding of the windstorm risk throughout Europe. The possible consequences of a storm with similar properties taking a subtly different path are also considered. In 1987, losses from the storm totalled £1.4 billion (US$2.3 billion) in the U.K. alone. RMS estimates that if the Great Storm of 1987 were to recur in 2007, it would cause between £4 billion and £7 billion (between US$8 billion and US$14.5 billion) in insured loss Europe-wide.