NORTH PACIFIC ANADROMOUS FISH COMMISSION Special Publication No. 2 CLimatE impacts on pacific saLmon: BIBLIOGraphY Climate Impacts on Pacific Salmon: Bibliography EDITORS : R.J. Beamish, K.L. Lange, B.E. Riddell, and S. Urawa SP E CIAL CR E DITS : Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (principal support), North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission CR E DITS : Bering Sea Fishermen’s Association, North Pacific Research Board NORTH PACIFIC AN ADROMOUS FISH COMMISSIO N SPECIAL PUBLICATION 2 Climate Impacts on Pacific Salmon: Bibliography Edited by: R.J. Beamish, K.L. Lange, B.E. Riddell, and S. Urawa Technical Editors: M. Johnson and D. McGrann-Pavlovic Published by: North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission Tel: (604) 775-5550 Suite 502, 889 West Pender Street Fax: (604) 775-5577 Vancouver, BC, V6C 3B2 E-mail: [email protected] Canada Website: www.npafc.org © 2010 North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission NPAFC Special Publication No. 2 (2010) Preface Climate affects the dynamics of Pacific salmon through changes in the ocean and freshwater habitats. The freshwater habitat of Pacific salmon has been studied extensively, but substantially less attention has been paid to the ocean. Studies of Pacific salmon in the ocean were difficult until suitable trawl gear was developed as recent as over a decade ago. The studies provided new insights into the processes that regulate early marine survival as well as overall marine survival. Recently-developed stock identification techniques can be linked to climate and ocean data to determine how stocks that rear in different areas of the North Pacific are affected by regional variability in ocean habitat. It is finally possible to combine information on Pacific salmon production in fresh water with an understanding of how ocean conditions regulate marine survival. The understanding of these processes will provide regional fisheries managers with new models which more accurately link climate and physical processes to recruitment, abundance and distribution. These studies must be conducted as soon as possible, because over the next 50 years the climate change will greatly increase uncertainty in the management of Pacific salmon. A task team of North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission (NPAFC) developed the Long-term Research and Monitoring Plan (LRMP) that synthesized past research and identified critical areas for new research to un- derstand impacts of future climate and ocean changes on the population dynamics of Pacific salmon (Beamish et al. 2009, NPAFC Special Publication No. 1, available at www.npafc.org). This issue (NPAFC Special Publication No. 2) supplements the LRMP with a bibliography that lists literatures associated with climate and ocean change impacts on Pacific salmon. The bibliography covers literatures published up to 2009 most of them with abstracts. An electronic version is available at www.npafc.org. The editors would like to thank many colleagues who kindly provided information for this bibliography. Climate Impacts on Pacific Salmon 1 Adkison, M.D., and B.P. Finney. 2003. The long-term outlook for salmon returns to Alaska. Alaska Fish. Res. Bull. 10(2): 83–94. With the exception of some western Alaska stocks, Alaska’s salmon populations are numerically healthy. How- ever, even fisheries on abundant stocks are suffering economically due to sharp declines in the value of the catch. The abundance of Alaskan salmon stocks has fluctuated greatly, both in modern times and prehistorically. These fluctuations are thought to be caused by multi-decadal changes in environmental conditions over large areas that affect many other species as well as salmon. Forecasts of salmon returns are not very reliable, and the potential for significant improvement in their accuracy is low in the short term. A viable fishing industry must be able to adapt to dramatic, persistent, and unanticipated changes in harvest levels. Nonetheless, Alaska’s salmon stocks should continue to produce healthy harvests for the foreseeable future, barring significant damage to their habitat either via local activities or global warming. Adkison, M.D., R.M. Peterman, et al. 1996. Alternative models of climatic effects on sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) productivity in Bristol Bay, Alaska, and the Fraser River, British Columbia. Fish. Oceanogr. 5(3/4): 137–152. We compare alternative models of sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka, productivity (returns per spawner) using more than 30 years of catch and escapement data for Bristol Bay, Alaska, and the Fraser River, British Columbia. The models examined include several alternative forms of models that incorporate climatic influences as well as models not based on climate. For most stocks, a stationary stock-recruitment relationship explains very little of the interannual variation in productivity. In Bristol Bay, productivity covaries among stocks and appears to be strongly related to fluctuations in climate. The best model for Bristol Bay sockeye involved a change in the 1970s in the parameters of the Ricker stock-recruitment curve; the stocks generally became more productive. In contrast, none of the models of Fraser River stocks that we examined explained much of the variability in their productivity. Anderson, D.M., S.A. Shankle, et al. 1993. Valuing effects of climate change and fishery enhancement on Chinook salmon. Contemporary Policy Issues 2: 82-94. This paper represents a continuing multidisciplinary analysis of species preservation and global change. It explores the economic cost of a potential regional warming’s effect on the spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshcaw- ytscha). Climate change and planned habitat improvements impact the production and economic value of spring Chinook salmon in the Yakima River tributary of the Columbia River in eastern Washington. A Chinook salmon’s total economic value includes the summation of the existence, commercial, recreational, andcapital values. The analysis here applies currently available data on these four components of value to estimated changes in Chinook salmon population resulting from regional warming. Results show that the estimated change in economic value per fish associated with reducing one fish run is significant. Anderson, J. 1998. Decadal climate cycles and declining Columbia River salmon. Sustainable Fisheries Conference Proceedings. 22 pp. (Available at http://www.cbr.washington.edu/papers/jim/victoria.pdf). This paper explores the effects of the interaction of anthropogenic trends and climate cycles on salmon declines in the Columbia and Snake river basins. A basic population model, including anthropogenic and environmental factors, is discussed and literature relating decadal scale climate patterns and the response of the North Pacific ecosystem is reviewed. From this background a ratchet-like decline in Columbia and Snake river salmon production resulted from the interactions of human activities and climatic regime shifts. These interactions are illustrated using hundred year patterns in spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) catch, the Columbia River hydroelectric generating capacity, and a climate index characterizing the shifts between a cool/wet regime favorable to West Coast salmon and a warm/dry regime unfavorable to West Coast salmon. A half century correlation of the climate index and Chi- nook catch suggest that a favorable climate regime counteracted detrimental impacts of hydrosystem development between 1945 and 1977, while an unfavorable climate regime negated beneficial effects of salmon mitigation efforts after 1977. This hypothesis is elaborated by a comparison of changes in the climate index relative to changes in Snake River salmon survival indicators. Anderson, J.J., and R.A. Hinrichsen. 1996. Climate indicators of salmon survival. Presnted at PICES Meeting, Nanaimo, BC. (Available at http://www.cbr.washington.edu/papers/jim/draft.pdf). Using studies from the Columbia River, salmon survival and catch measures were correlated with several Pacific Northwest climate indices. Spring Chinook survival rate and catch were varied with the Pacific Northwest climate index (PNI), which characterizes temperature and precipitation cycles in the Pacific Northwest. Cool/wet condi- tions were associated with higher survival and catch while warm/dry conditions were associated with lower stock measures. At a finer temporal scale, the survival of spring Chinook from smolt to adult was correlated with the ar- 2 NPAFC Special Publication No. 2 (2010) rival time of smolts into the estuary and the spring transition date, which signals the beginning of spring and coastal upwelling. A match/mismatch hypothesis is suggested to explain how variation in spring transition and estuary entry dates can effect stock survival. The effects of hatchery production and hydrosystem passage on year class strength is also considered in terms of the match/mismatch mechanism. Anderson, P.J., and J F. Piatt. 1999. Community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska following ocean climate regime shift. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 189: 117–123. A shift in ocean climate during the late 1970s triggered a reorganization of community structure in the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem, as evidenced in changing catch composition on long-term (1953 to 1997) small-mesh trawl surveys. For- age species such as pandalid shrimp and capelin declined because of recruitment failure and predation, and popula- tions have not yet recovered. Total trawl catch biomass declined > SO% and remained low through the 1980s. In contrast, recruitment of