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Evaluation of Interregional Input-Output Models for Potential Use in the Mcclellan-Kerr Arkansas River Multiple Purpose Project Impact Study 6

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Evaluation of Interregional Input-Output Models for Potential Use in the Mcclellan-Kerr Arkansas River Multiple Purpose Project Impact Study 6 "SUB m tiW TO CHANGE c - / EVALUATION OF INTERREGIONAL MODELS FOR POTENTIAL USE I McCLELLAN-KERR ARKANSAS RIVER PROJECT IMPACT STUD M ÏS S O t kp H O M A s|^^oOtOGAH « « mAMA\ReP°rt Subm«i INGINEER INSTITUTE FOR WATER RESOURCES Kingman Building White River IWR Contract Report 74-6 LIBRARY JUL 775 Bureau of Reclamation Denver, Colorado UNCLASSIFIED N BUREAU OF RECLAMATION DENVER LIBRARY SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (When Date Entered) 92069985 REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 92069985 s 1. REPORT NUMBER 2. G O V T A C C E S S IO N N O 3. R E U IWR Contract Report 74-6 5. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED 4. T I T L E (and Subtitle) & Evaluation of Interregional Input-Output Models for Potential Use in the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Multiple Purpose Project Impact Study 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 8. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBERS 7. A U T H O R (a) Ungsoo Kim, Ph. D. , Research Associate C on tract r No. DACW31 -72-C-0059 AME AND ADDRESS to. PROGRAM ELEMENT, PROJECT, TASK 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION N AREA & WORK UNIT NUMBERS Institute of Social and Behavioral Research The^ Catholic of A m e ric a Washington, D. C. 20017 _________________ , 11. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS ,12. REPORT DATE US Army Engineer Institute for Water Resources ^August 1974 __________ Kingman Building 13. NUMBER OF PAGES F o r t B e lv o ir, V a. 22060 ________________________ 102 14. MONITORING AGENCY NAME & ADDRESSfff different from Controlling Office) 15. SECURITY CLASS, (of this report) UNCLASSIFIED 15a. D E C L A S S I F IC A T IO N / D O W N G R A D IN G SCHEDULE 16. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of this Report) Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. 17. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of the abstract entered in Block 20, if different from Report) 18. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 19. KEY WORDS (Continue on reverse side if necessary and identify by block number) Input-Output Studies; Multiple Region Input-Output Studies; Impact A sse ssm e n t 20. A B S T R A C T (Continue on reverte elite If neceeeary end Identify by block number) This report critiques a number of operational multi regional and single region input-output models for application to the impact analysis of the completed McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Multiple Purpose Project. The use of a modified revision of the Harvard Univ. Multi-region Input-Output Model completed for the Economic Development Administration is recommended. DD , j2SM73 1473 EDITION OF t NOV 65 IS OBSOLETE UNC LASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (When Data Entered) UNCLASSIFIED____________________ SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE(HV>«a Dmtm Bntmrmd) SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE(TW**n Dmtm Bntmrmd) EVALUATION OF INTERREGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS FOR POTENTIAL USE IN THE McCLELLAN-KERR ARKANSAS RIVER MULTIPLE PURPOSE PROJECT IMPACT STUDY A Report Submitted to the U. S. Army Engineer Institute for Water Resources Kingman Building Fort Belvoir, Virginia 22060 b y Ungsoo Kim, Ph. D. , Research Associate Institute of Social and Behavioral Research The Catholic University of America Washington, D. C, 20017 Under Contract No. DACW31-72-C-0059 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. AUGUST 1974 IWR C ontract R eport 74-6 Copies may be purchased from: National Technical Information Service U. S. Department of Commerce Springfield, Virginia 22151 This report is not to be construed as necessarily representing the views of the Federal Government or of the Corps of Engineers, U. S. Army. TABLE OF CONTENTS Phase I Page Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION 1 Purpose of the Research 1 Organization of the Report 1 Chapter 2 THEORETICAL ASPECTS OF INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS 3 National Model 3 Regional Model 6 Interregional Model 7 Chapter 3 INVESTIGATION OF EMPIRICAL MULTIREGIONAL 18 I/O Models 18 The Harvard Study 19 The Appalachian Study 31 The Washington University Study 34 The Eleven Western States Study 36 Summary 37 Chapter 4 THE PROPOSED MODEL 39 Arkansas River Basin Survey: Industrial and Trade Patterns 40 Delineation of Regions and Industrial Classifications 46 Structural Coefficients 49 Level of Impacts to be Measured 52 Adaptability of the Model for Other Projects 54 Chapter 5 SUMMARY 56 Selected Bibliography INTRODUCTION 65 REQUIRED DATA 67 Transactions Table 67 Production Coefficients 69 Final Demands 73 Value Added 74 SURVEY VERSUS NON-SURVEY METHODS 76 DATA COLLECTION PLAN AND SOURCES OF DATA 82 1970 Transactions Table 89 Interregional Flows 91 Value Added 92 Foreign Trade 95 96 Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION Purpose of the Research The purpose of this research is (1) to critically re- examine and evaluate the current state of input-output models in use and (2) to recommend an empirically feasible inter­ regional I/O model for use by the McClelland-Kerr Arkansas River Multiple Purpose Project Impact Study (MKARMPPIS) It is not the intent of this study to actually construct a model, but rather to suggest a theoretically sound and empirically feasible model to analize the impact of the Arkansas River project. Organization of the Report Following the introduction some theoretical aspects of I/O analysis will be briefly surveyed in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 contains an investigation of some empirical works of inter­ regional I/O studies. In Chapter 4, a proposed interregional I/O model in terms of broad guidelines will be presented. Finally, the summary of this study will be included in Chapter 5- The McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Multiple Purpose Project consists of 17 locks and dams, several canals and 10 power houses along 450 miles of the Arkansas River between the junction of the Arkansas and Mississippi Rivers and Tulsa, Oklahoma. The projects cost 1.2 billion dollars in 1968 prices. The waterway to Tulsa was completed at the end of 1970. The principal benefits of the project are: water transportation, supply of water and electric power, and flood control. See Map 1, Arkansas River Basin. i f f j j y j T \J ] Neosho /, W W f J ? 0 O[K '- L S_ S 0 V( K S U'*>» , j Ropier Sluffi yus* . 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I jOL 5H A i* 0 U v • ; r \ / ^ ^ ...............- • ' ' .......- ~ L - . m r--n«: a.o 1 j , i •it e V A 0 A. *. I ! *■ AC a l h o u ft / 1 o » f. w t r* r a y r- o h » »* t ?> R I V E » I 3 ! r & L S | P O W i F 1 I . x, L , . , J 7 W i I ./ft J A TexArkAno'i V*/ i <i i i LEGEND , ^ i(llUs| .- r i ro is r 1 i - ( I J o 1. il M ■) . A I l , ^ Kite Tevark ■*1 •’ v 2 LXISTING . i ! J i > 1 -J - J 1 AMP ■( T 1 *■< <:• a •. ~ ~ > ~ T i \ ■ j , • • r r •j ' n ’I f " * CNDEr» CONSTRUCTION ' VJ --------- ^ t ' ' i • Delias ■ - " , ; m a n i r :. I 0 N • ) M > | AUTHORIZED ^ i rv I I I 1 ■k W A v ) ^ S h r 8V4;port - 3 - Chapter 2 THEORETICAL ASPECTS OF INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS National Model Since its introduction in the 1930’s by Professor Wassily Leontief, I/O analysis has been extensively utilized as a means of investigating structural interrelationships among industries and projecting: the level of change in the economy under a given condition of autonomous change in final demands.
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