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2020 Election Preview a Pandemic of Electoral Chaos Arizona Association of Health Underwriters Prepared by Dr 2020 Election Preview A Pandemic of Electoral Chaos Arizona Association of Health Underwriters Prepared by Dr. Marcus Osborn and Dan Romm Kutak Rock, LLP Arizona 2020 Key Election Dates Early Register to Request Last Day to Election Day Voting Vote an Early Mail Ballot Begins Deadline Ballot Deadline 2 Arizona 2020 Ballot Propositions “Pot and Schools Go together like Peas and Carrots” 3 Proposition 207 – Smart and Safe Arizona Act Proposition 207 would legalize recreational marijuana use in Arizona for people ages 21 and over. Under the proposal, purchases would be charged the regular sales tax plus an additional 16 percent, which would fund the government’s cost of administering the program. Any money left over will be allocated to community colleges, infrastructure, roads and highways, public safety and public health. This measure allows people who have been arrested or convicted of some marijuana offenses, such as possessing, consuming or transporting 2.5 ounces or less, to petition to have their records expunged. Additionally, this proposal clarifies that people can be charged with driving under the influence of marijuana. 4 Proposition 208 – Invest in Education Act Backed by the state’s teacher’s union, Proposition 208 calls for a 3.5 percent tax surcharge on income above $250,000 for an individual or above $500,000 for couples. This initiative hopes to raise about $940 million a year for schools. Under this ballot proposal, half of the new tax generated would be devoted to raises for credentialed teachers, 25 percent would go to increasing the wages for cafeteria workers, bus drivers and other support staff, and the remaining amount would be allocated for teacher training, vocational education and other initiatives. 5 Themes of the Campaign From Republican Stronghold to Swing State • “Blueing” of Arizona • 2020 (35% Republican) (32% Democrat) (33% Other) • 2016 (34.5% Republican) (30.4% Democrat) (34% Other) • Tech‐worker growth • Demographic changes • Californiacation of Arizona • Independents more Moderate • Moderate Democrats vs. Progressives • Republicans Hold‐on for Redistricting Politics of Division During a Crisis • COVID, COVID, COVID • Health uncertainty • Economic uncertainty • Work to Together? What? • Fear to the Left and Fear to the Right • Burning cities and forests • Madman President vs. Declining Joe • Socialist and Right wing radicals • Traditional Stuff • Anti‐Washington • Corruption Lots of Talks about Health Care • Sound Bites for All‐Substance for None • Medicare for All • Protect Pre‐existing Conditions • Drug Prices WHAT I’VE DONE… IMPORTANT LAWS I WROTE SB 1397: Insurance; preexisting condition exclusions’ prohibition (2020) Requires insurance companies to cover preexisting conditions. U.S. Senate Special Election 10 U.S. Senate Special Election KEY RACE – POTENTIAL SEAT CHANGE Senator Martha McSally (R-Arizona) Mark Kelly (D-Arizona) U.S. Senator Marth McSally assumed office on January 3, 2019 after Governor Ducey appointed her to the U.S. Senate to fill the vacated seat of the late Senator John McCain. She is a former Air Force combat pilot and U.S. Congresswoman. In 2018, she previously ran for an open U.S. Senate seat; however, she lost in the general election to Kyrsten Sinema (D). She now faces former NASA astronaut and U.S. Navy Captain, Mark Kelly, in this special election. Kelly is also the husband of former U.S. Congresswoman Gabby Giffords (D). This has been one of the most expensive Senate races in the country and could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Most polls have Kelly with a decent lead over McSally; however, things may tighten up in the next couple of weeks. Because this contest is a special election to finish John McCain’s term, the winner could be sworn into office as soon as the results are certified in November. Statewide Voter Registration: Democrats: 32%; Republican: 35%; Other: 33% 11 U.S. Congressional Races Nine Congressional Seats Are Up for Grabs 12 U.S House of Representatives District 1 Tiffany Shedd (R-Eloy) Congressman Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona) Congressman Tom O’Halleran is running for a 3rd term to the U.S. House of Representatives. He is a former member of the Arizona Legislature, bond trader, and a Chicago police officer. O’Halleran was a Republican up until 2014. He is running against the Republican nominee, Tiffany Shedd. Shedd and her husband began farming cotton and wheat in 1989 on their farm in Eloy, Arizona. Additionally, she has worked as a bi-lingual kindergarten teacher and natural resources attorney. Shedd previously ran for the CD 1 House seat in 2018, but lost in the Republican primary to Wendy Rogers. Congressman O’Halleran is expected to easily win his reelection bid. District Voter Registration: Democrats: 37%; Republican: 32%; Other: 31% 13 U.S House of Representatives District 2 Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Tucson) Brandon Martin (R-Tucson) Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick is running for a 2nd term in the U.S. House to represent CD 2. She previously represented Arizona’s 1st Congressional District from 2009 to 2011 and 2013 to 2017. In 2016, Kirkpatrick unsuccessfully challenged incumbent Senator John McCain(R) in the U.S. Senate race, losing by 7 percentage points. She now faces the Republican nominee, Brandon Martin in the general election. Martin served as an Intelligence Professional in the U.S. Army Reserves for 11 years and fought in Afghanistan, collecting intelligence information on enemy combatants. He is currently a substitute teacher and a youth football coach. Kirkpatrick is expected to easily win reelection in this race. District Voter Registration: Democrats: 37%; Republican: 33%; Other: 30% 14 U.S House of Representatives District 3 Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) Daniel Wood (R-Maricopa) Congressman Raul Grijalva is running for a 9th term in the U.S. House. In 2018, Grijalva became chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee. He also is the Chairman Emeritus of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, as well as a long-standing member of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. He will face off against the Republican nominee, Daniel Wood. Wood is a veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps. He participated in Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003 before being honorably discharged in 2005. Wood is also a former police officer. Congressman Grijalva is expected to easily win reelection in this heavily Democratic favored district. District Voter Registration: Democrats: 44%; Republican: 21%; Other: 35% 15 U.S House of Representatives District 4 Congressman Paul Gosar (R-Prescott) Delina DiSanto (D-Cave Creek) Congressman Paul Gosar is running for a 6th term in the U.S. House. Prior to serving in Congress, Gosar practiced dentistry for 25 years. He will face the Democratic nominee, Delina DiSanto in the general election. DiSanto was born and raised in New Jersey. She and her husband currently own a construction company. DiSanto previously worked for former U.S. Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell in Durango, CO before moving to Arizona. Congressman Gosar is easily expected to win reelection in this heavily GOP favored district. District Voter Registration: Democrats: 20%; Republican: 48%; Other: 32% 16 U.S House of Representatives District 5 Congressman Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) Joan Greene (D-Phoenix) Congressman Andy Biggs is running for a 3rd term in the U.S. House. Prior to his time in Congress, he served in the Arizona Senate as Senate President from 2013-2017. He will face the Democratic nominee, Joan Green in the general election. Greene is a native Arizonan. She owns and operates a promotional marketing company. She is a District Leader for the Humane Society of the United States, and has worked with rescue organizations all over the country. Congressman Biggs is expected to easily retain his seat in this heavily GOP favored district. District Voter Registration: Democrats: 24%; Republican: 43%; Other: 33% 17 U.S House of Representatives District 6 KEY RACE – POTENTIAL SEAT CHANGE Congressman David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) Hiral Tipirneni (D-Glendale) Congressman David Schweikert is is seeking a sixth term in the U.S. House of Representatives. He began his political career in the Arizona House of Representatives from 1991 to 1995. Schweikert also previously served as the Maricopa County Treasurer. He will face the Democratic nominee, Hiral Tiperneni in the general election. Tipirneni was the Democratic nominee in 2018 for the CD 8 seat; however, she is now running in the neighboring district of CD 6. Tipirneni is a former emergency room physician. She was 3 years old when her family immigrated from India to the United States. Congressman Schweikert recently admitted to a number of House ethics violations and is in jeopardy of losing his seat in what should be a fairly close race this November. District Voter Registration: Democrats: 28%; Republican: 39%; Other: 33% 18 U.S House of Representatives District 7 Congressman Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) Joshua Barnett (R-Phoenix) Congressman Ruben Gallego is seeking a 4th term in the U.S. House. Prior to his time in Congress, he was a member of the Arizona House of Representatives, representing District 27 from 2011 to 2014. In the general election, Gallego will face the Republican nominee, Joshua Barnett. Barnett attended Purdue University to play football. He currently owns Metroflex Gym which has franchises in multiple states. He is new to Arizona politics. Congressman Gallego is expected to easily win reelection in this heavily Democratic favored district. District Voter Registration: Democrats: 48%; Republican: 15%; Other: 37% 19 U.S House of Representatives District 8 Congresswoman Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) Michael Muscato (D-Peoria) Congresswoman Debbie Lesko is running for a 2nd term in the U.S. House after winning the special election to fill the seat left vacant by Trent Franks (R). Prior to her time in Congress, she was a member of the Arizona State Senate, representing District 21 from 2015 to 2018.
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