2020 Election Preview A Pandemic of Electoral Chaos Association of Health Underwriters Prepared by Dr. Marcus Osborn and Dan Romm Kutak Rock, LLP Arizona 2020 Key Election Dates

Early Register to Request Last Day to Election Day Voting Vote an Early Mail Ballot Begins Deadline Ballot Deadline

2 Arizona 2020 Ballot Propositions

“Pot and Schools Go together like Peas and Carrots”

3 Proposition 207 – Smart and Safe Arizona Act

Proposition 207 would legalize recreational marijuana use in Arizona for people ages 21 and over. Under the proposal, purchases would be charged the regular sales tax plus an additional 16 percent, which would fund the government’s cost of administering the program. Any money left over will be allocated to community colleges, infrastructure, roads and highways, public safety and public health. This measure allows people who have been arrested or convicted of some marijuana offenses, such as possessing, consuming or transporting 2.5 ounces or less, to petition to have their records expunged. Additionally, this proposal clarifies that people can be charged with driving under the influence of marijuana.

4 Proposition 208 – Invest in Education Act

Backed by the state’s teacher’s union, Proposition 208 calls for a 3.5 percent tax surcharge on income above $250,000 for an individual or above $500,000 for couples. This initiative hopes to raise about $940 million a year for schools. Under this ballot proposal, half of the new tax generated would be devoted to raises for credentialed teachers, 25 percent would go to increasing the wages for cafeteria workers, bus drivers and other support staff, and the remaining amount would be allocated for teacher training, vocational education and other initiatives.

5 Themes of the Campaign From Republican Stronghold to Swing State

• “Blueing” of Arizona • 2020 (35% Republican) (32% Democrat) (33% Other) • 2016 (34.5% Republican) (30.4% Democrat) (34% Other)

• Tech‐worker growth • Demographic changes • Californiacation of Arizona • Independents more Moderate • Moderate Democrats vs. Progressives • Republicans Hold‐on for Redistricting Politics of Division During a Crisis

• COVID, COVID, COVID • Health uncertainty • Economic uncertainty • Work to Together? What? • Fear to the Left and Fear to the Right • Burning cities and forests • Madman President vs. Declining Joe • Socialist and Right wing radicals • Traditional Stuff • Anti‐Washington • Corruption Lots of Talks about Health Care

• Sound Bites for All‐Substance for None • Medicare for All • Protect Pre‐existing Conditions • Drug Prices

WHAT I’VE DONE… IMPORTANT LAWS I WROTE SB 1397: Insurance; preexisting condition exclusions’ prohibition (2020) Requires insurance companies to cover preexisting conditions. U.S. Senate Special Election

10 U.S. Senate Special Election KEY RACE – POTENTIAL SEAT CHANGE

Senator Martha McSally (R-Arizona) (D-Arizona)

U.S. Senator Marth McSally assumed office on January 3, 2019 after Governor Ducey appointed her to the U.S. Senate to fill the vacated seat of the late Senator John McCain. She is a former Air Force combat pilot and U.S. Congresswoman. In 2018, she previously ran for an open U.S. Senate seat; however, she lost in the general election to (D). She now faces former NASA astronaut and U.S. Navy Captain, Mark Kelly, in this special election. Kelly is also the husband of former U.S. Congresswoman Gabby (D).

This has been one of the most expensive Senate races in the country and could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Most polls have Kelly with a decent lead over McSally; however, things may tighten up in the next couple of weeks. Because this contest is a special election to finish John McCain’s term, the winner could be sworn into office as soon as the results are certified in November.

Statewide Voter Registration: Democrats: 32%; Republican: 35%; Other: 33% 11 U.S. Congressional Races Nine Congressional Seats Are Up for Grabs

12 U.S House of Representatives District 1

Tiffany Shedd (R-Eloy) Congressman Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona)

Congressman Tom O’Halleran is running for a 3rd term to the U.S. House of Representatives. He is a former member of the Arizona Legislature, bond trader, and a Chicago police officer. O’Halleran was a Republican up until 2014. He is running against the Republican nominee, Tiffany Shedd.

Shedd and her husband began farming cotton and wheat in 1989 on their farm in Eloy, Arizona. Additionally, she has worked as a bi-lingual kindergarten teacher and natural resources attorney. Shedd previously ran for the CD 1 House seat in 2018, but lost in the Republican primary to Wendy Rogers.

Congressman O’Halleran is expected to easily win his reelection bid.

District Voter Registration: Democrats: 37%; Republican: 32%; Other: 31%

13 U.S House of Representatives District 2

Congresswoman (D-Tucson) Brandon Martin (R-Tucson)

Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick is running for a 2nd term in the U.S. House to represent CD 2. She previously represented Arizona’s 1st Congressional District from 2009 to 2011 and 2013 to 2017. In 2016, Kirkpatrick unsuccessfully challenged incumbent Senator John McCain(R) in the U.S. Senate race, losing by 7 percentage points. She now faces the Republican nominee, Brandon Martin in the general election.

Martin served as an Intelligence Professional in the U.S. Army Reserves for 11 years and fought in Afghanistan, collecting intelligence information on enemy combatants. He is currently a substitute teacher and a youth football coach.

Kirkpatrick is expected to easily win reelection in this race.

District Voter Registration: Democrats: 37%; Republican: 33%; Other: 30% 14 U.S House of Representatives District 3

Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) Daniel Wood (R-Maricopa)

Congressman Raul Grijalva is running for a 9th term in the U.S. House. In 2018, Grijalva became chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee. He also is the Chairman Emeritus of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, as well as a long-standing member of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. He will face off against the Republican nominee, Daniel Wood.

Wood is a veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps. He participated in Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003 before being honorably discharged in 2005. Wood is also a former police officer.

Congressman Grijalva is expected to easily win reelection in this heavily Democratic favored district.

District Voter Registration: Democrats: 44%; Republican: 21%; Other: 35% 15 U.S House of Representatives District 4

Congressman (R-Prescott) Delina DiSanto (D-Cave Creek)

Congressman Paul Gosar is running for a 6th term in the U.S. House. Prior to serving in Congress, Gosar practiced dentistry for 25 years. He will face the Democratic nominee, Delina DiSanto in the general election.

DiSanto was born and raised in New Jersey. She and her husband currently own a construction company. DiSanto previously worked for former U.S. Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell in Durango, CO before moving to Arizona.

Congressman Gosar is easily expected to win reelection in this heavily GOP favored district.

District Voter Registration: Democrats: 20%; Republican: 48%; Other: 32% 16 U.S House of Representatives District 5

Congressman (R-Gilbert) Joan Greene (D-Phoenix)

Congressman Andy Biggs is running for a 3rd term in the U.S. House. Prior to his time in Congress, he served in the as Senate President from 2013-2017. He will face the Democratic nominee, Joan Green in the general election.

Greene is a native Arizonan. She owns and operates a promotional marketing company. She is a District Leader for the Humane Society of the , and has worked with rescue organizations all over the country.

Congressman Biggs is expected to easily retain his seat in this heavily GOP favored district.

District Voter Registration: Democrats: 24%; Republican: 43%; Other: 33% 17 U.S House of Representatives District 6 KEY RACE – POTENTIAL SEAT CHANGE

Congressman (R-Fountain Hills) (D-Glendale)

Congressman David Schweikert is is seeking a sixth term in the U.S. House of Representatives. He began his political career in the Arizona House of Representatives from 1991 to 1995. Schweikert also previously served as the Maricopa County Treasurer. He will face the Democratic nominee, Hiral Tiperneni in the general election.

Tipirneni was the Democratic nominee in 2018 for the CD 8 seat; however, she is now running in the neighboring district of CD 6. Tipirneni is a former emergency room physician. She was 3 years old when her family immigrated from India to the United States.

Congressman Schweikert recently admitted to a number of House ethics violations and is in jeopardy of losing his seat in what should be a fairly close race this November.

District Voter Registration: Democrats: 28%; Republican: 39%; Other: 33% 18 U.S House of Representatives District 7

Congressman (D-Phoenix) Joshua Barnett (R-Phoenix)

Congressman Ruben Gallego is seeking a 4th term in the U.S. House. Prior to his time in Congress, he was a member of the Arizona House of Representatives, representing District 27 from 2011 to 2014. In the general election, Gallego will face the Republican nominee, Joshua Barnett.

Barnett attended Purdue University to play football. He currently owns Metroflex Gym which has franchises in multiple states. He is new to Arizona politics.

Congressman Gallego is expected to easily win reelection in this heavily Democratic favored district.

District Voter Registration: Democrats: 48%; Republican: 15%; Other: 37% 19 U.S House of Representatives District 8

Congresswoman (R-Peoria) Michael Muscato (D-Peoria)

Congresswoman Debbie Lesko is running for a 2nd term in the U.S. House after winning the special election to fill the seat left vacant by (R). Prior to her time in Congress, she was a member of the Arizona State Senate, representing District 21 from 2015 to 2018. She will face the Democratic nominee, Michael Muscato in the general election.

Muscato was born and raised in CD 8. He is a former professional baseball player, drafted by the New York Yankees in 2003. He is a small business owner and ran for the Arizona Senate in LD 22, losing to then incumbent Senator, .

Congresswoman Lesko is expected to easily win reelection in this heavily GOP favored district.

District Voter Registration: Democrats: 26%; Republican: 42%; Other: 32% 20 U.S House of Representatives District 9

Congressman (D-Phoenix) Dave Giles (R-Gilbert)

Congressman Greg Stanton is seeking a 2nd term in the U.S. House. Before entering Congress, Stanton served as mayor of Phoenix from 2012 to 2018. He also served on the Phoenix City Council from 2000 to 2009. He will face the Republican nominee, Dave Giles, in the general election.

Giles is an international businessman who served as Executive Advisor to the Saudi Oil Minister and President of Saudi Aramco. He also worked for Wells Fargo in their finance office for several years. Giles is the founder of Federal Firearms of Arizona.

Congressman Stanton is expected to retain his seat this November.

District Voter Registration: Democrats: 37%; Republican: 29%; Other: 34% 21 Arizona Senate Races All 30 AZ Senate Seats Are Up for Grabs

22 Current Balance of Power - AZ Senate

23 Arizona Senate – Legislative District 6 KEY RACE – POTENTIAL SEAT CHANGE

Felicia French (D-Pine) Wendy Rogers (R-Flagstaff)

The Democratic nominee, retired U.S. Army Colonel Felicia French is a third-generation Arizonan. French is a registered nurse, an Afghan War veteran and a former medical evacuation helicopter pilot. In 2018 she ran for the AZ House of Representatives, narrowly losing by only 577 votes. She will now face the Republican nominee, Wendy Rogers for the open LD 6 AZ Senate seat.

Rogers, a, retired Lieutenant Colonel was one of the U.S. Air Force’s first women pilots. Over the years, she has unsuccessfully run for a number of political offices in Arizona, most recently she ran for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018, losing in the General Election to incumbent Congressman Tom O’Halleran (D).

The outcome of this race may decide the balance of power in the Senate. It is expected to a very close contest.

Voter Registration: Democrats: 30%; Republican: 39%; Other: 31%

24 Arizona Senate – Legislative District 8 KEY RACE – POTENTIAL SEAT CHANGE

Representative T.J. Shope (R-Coolidge) Barbara McGuire (D-Kearny)

Representative T.J. Shope, the House Speaker Pro Tempore, is currently termed out of the House and is looking to make the switch to the Senate where he is hoping to replace Senator who will be running for the AZ House. Shope is a co-owner of Shope’s IGA Supermarket, in Coolidge. Additionally, he is a Community Sales Development Officer for the National Bank of Arizona. He will be facing former Arizona State Senator Barbara McGuire in the general election.

Barbara McGuire is a third-generation Arizonan. While in the Legislature, she was a moderate voice in the Democratic caucus, serving from 2012-2016. She also served in the AZ House from 2007-2011. McGuire lost her reelection bid to the Senate to Frank Pratt.

This race is expected to be close and could impact the balance of power in the Senate.

Voter Registration: Democrats: 31%; Republican: 34%; Other: 35% 25 Arizona Senate – Legislative District 17 KEY RACE – POTENTIAL SEAT CHANGE

Senator J.D. Mesnard (R-Chandler) A.J. Kurdoglu (D-Chandler)

Senator J.D. Mesnard is seeking a second term in the AZ Senate. He previously served in the AZ House of Representatives for eight years, including two years as Speaker. Mesnard is currently the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. He faces a very tough reelection campaign versus the Democratic nominee, A.J. Kurdoglu.

Kurdoglu is a first generation American and a small business owner. He is a graduate of the Thunderbird Graduate School of International Management.

The outcome of this race may impact the balance of power in the Senate. LD 17 had been a solid Republican district; however, the political makeup has shifted over the last few years.

Voter Registration: Democrats: 30%; Republican: 37%; Other: 33%

26 Arizona Senate – Legislative District 20 KEY RACE – POTENTIAL SEAT CHANGE

Senator Paul Bower (R-Glendale) Douglas Ervin (D-Phoenix)

Senator is running for a 2nd term in the AZ Senate. He previously served in the AZ House from 2012-2018. Boyer is a high school literature and history teacher. He faces a difficult reelection bid versus the Democratic nominee, Douglas Ervin.

Ervin is an accountant, corporate tax auditor, and financial systems architect. He ran against Boyer in the 2018 Election and lost by 5 points; however, this year’s race is expected to be much closer and the outcome could impact the balance of power of the Senate.

Voter Registration: Democrats: 30%; Republican: 34%; Other: 36%

27 Arizona Senate – Legislative District 28 KEY RACE – POTENTIAL SEAT CHANGE

Senator Kate Brophy McGee (R-Phoenix) (D-Phoenix)

Senator Kate Brophy McGee is seeking a 3rd term in the AZ Senate in perhaps the most competitive legislative district in the state. She is currently the Senate Health and Human Services Committee chairwoman.

In 2018, Brophy McGee only won reelection by 267 votes against the Democratic nominee, Christine Marsh. This election cycle, she will once again faceoff against Marsh.

Christine Marsh is a high school English teacher and the 2016 Arizona Teacher of the Year.

The outcome of this race may help determine the balance of power in the Senate and it is once again expected to be very close.

Voter Registration: Democrats: 33%; Republican: 35%; Other: 32% 28 Arizona House of Representatives Races All 60 AZ House Seats Are Up for Grabs

29 Current Balance of Power - AZ HOUSE

30 Arizona House – Legislative District 4 KEY RACE – POTENTIAL SEAT CHANGE

Representative (D-Yuma) Representative (D-Goodyear)

Joel John (R-Buckeye)

Representative Charlene Fernandez is expected to easily win a 4th term in the AZ House. She currently serves as the House Minority Leader; however, if the Democrats take control of the House, she will likely be the next Speaker. Her seatmate, Geraldine Peten, is also seeking reelection to the AZ House. She was first appointed to the seat on August 16, 2017, following the resignation of incumbent Reprsentative Jesus Rubalcava (D). Historically, Peten has not been a strong campaigner and she faces a tough Republican challenger in Joel John.

John is a fourth generation Arizonan from a farming family, and CEO of a small agricultural irrigation business. While he faces an uphill battle in this heavily Democratic favored district, he did receive more primary votes than Peten. A potential GOP upset here is not out of the of the question.

31 Voter Registration: Democrats: 40%; Republican: 24%; Other: 36% Arizona House – Legislative District 6 KEY RACE – POTENTIAL SEAT CHANGE

Representative (R-Snow Flake) (R-Payson)

Coral Evans (D-Flagstaff) Art Babbott (I-Flagstaff)

Representative Walt Blackman is seeking a 2nd term in the AZ House. He is an Army veteran and currently serves as the Vice Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. He is running as a team with former state Representative Brenda Barton. Barton previously served in the AZ House from 2013-2019. She was unable to run for re-election in 2018 because of term limits. Both Blackman and Barton will face a tough challenge in the general election from the Democratic nominee, Coral Evans and Independent candidate, Art Babbott.

Evans is currently the mayor of Flagstaff. She received more votes in her primary than both Blackman and Barton. Mayor Evans is seen as the current frontrunner in this race. Babbott currently sits on the Coconino County Board of Supervisors. The outcome of this race will help to determine the balance of power in the AZ House.

Voter Registration: Democrats: 30%; Republican: 39%; Other: 31% 32 Arizona House – Legislative District 18 Representative (D-Tempe) Representative (D-Chandler)

Bob Robson (D-Phoenix) Don Hawker (R-Tempe)

Representative Epstein and Representative Jermaine are the frontrunners to win reelection to the AZ House in LD 18. Epstein is seeking a 3rd term and Jermaine is seeking her 2nd. They will face the Republican nominees, Bob Robson and Don Hawker.

Robson is a former member of the AZ House, serving from 2001 to 2009 and 2011 to 2017. He served as speaker pro tempore from 2007 to 2009 and 2015 to 2017. Robson has worked as a teacher for Maricopa Community College and as owner and operator of an insurance/financial services firm. Hawker is a retired computer programmer and a Navy veteran. He has been active in local politics.

Robson may have had an opportunity to win this seat as a singe-shot candidate, but Hawker was able to get on the ballot as a write-in candidate in the primary, hurting Robson’s comeback chances. Voter Registration: Democrats: 35%; Republican: 33%; Other: 32% 33 Arizona House – Legislative District 20 KEY RACE – POTENTIAL SEAT CHANGE

Representative (R-Phoenix) Representative Anthony Kern (R-Glendale)

Judy Schwiebert (D-Phoenix)

Representative Bolick and Representative Kern are both seeking reelection to the AZ House. Bolick, the wife of AZ Supreme Court Justice, is seeking a 2nd term. Her seatmate, Kern is seeking a 4th term. He is currently the Chairman of the House Rules Committee. They face a difficult reelection campaign against the Democratic nominee and single-shot candidate, .

Schwiebert, a political newcomer was a public high school teacher for 27 years in the Glendale Union and Peoria Unified School Districts. She has a good chance of knocking off either Bolick or Kern in the general election.

The outcome of this election will likely impact the balance of power in the AZ House.

34 Voter Registration: Democrats: 30%; Republican: 34%; Other: 36% Arizona House – Legislative District 21 KEY RACE – POTENTIAL SEAT CHANGE Representative (R-Peoria) (R-Peoria)

Kathy Knecht (D-Peoria)

Representative Payne is seeking a 3rd term in the AZ House. He is a small business owner and operator of a food truck business. Payne is running as a team with Beverly Pingerelli. Pingerelli has served on the Peoria Unified School District Governing Board for the past five years. She works at Grand Canyon University, and occasionally part-time at St. Joseph's Hospital and Medical Center. They will be facing a tough challenger in the Democratic nominee, Kathy Knecht.

Knecht Knecht ran for the Senate in 2018 as an Independent candidate and narrowly lost by 4 points. She worked as an elementary school teacher in Arizona and Illinois. She was a member of the Arizona Town Hall Board of Directors, the Blue Blazer Squadron, and the Peoria Chamber of Commerce Board of Directors. She was also the treasurer of the Arizona School Boards Association. She has a very strong chance to win one of the two House seats this November.

35 Voter Registration: Democrats: 29%; Republican: 38%; Other: 33% Arizona Corporation Commission 3 out of the 5 AZ Corporation Commission Seats Are Up for Grabs

36 AZ Corporation Commission

Lea Marquez Petersen (R-Tucson) Eric Sloan (R-Scottsdale) Jim O’Connor (R-Scottsdale)

Anna Tovar (D-Tolleson) Bill Mundell (D-Paradise Valley) Shea Stanfield (D-Cave Creek)

Three out of the five seats on the Arizona Corporation Commission are up for grabs this election cycle; however the only incumbent running in the race is Lea Marquez Petersen. Petersen was appointed to the ACC by Governor Ducey in May 2019, to replace former member, . Also running on the Republican slate is Eric Sloan and Jim O’Connor. Sloan is a small business owner and former Legislative Liaison for the Arizona Department of Gaming. O’Conner has been active in Republican politics for the past 10 years.

On the Democratic slate, former Republican Commissioner Bill Mundell is looking to return to the ACC; however, this time as a Democrat. He is running as a team with former Cave Creek Councilwoman Shea Stanfield, and current Tolleson Mayor .

There are currently no clear frontrunners in the ACC race. Statewide Voter Registration: Democrats: 32%; Republican: 35%; Other: 33% 37 Questions