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The congestion challenge getting the most out of the UK’s and rail networks

November 2015 The Royal Academy of has published this ‘challenge paper’ to highlight a topic of policy interest on which the Academy has not formed a formal policy position. Challenge papers, which are authored by Fellows of the Academy, aim to provide informed analysis of an important issue, with the objective of promoting further discussion with policymakers and the public about the opportunities and challenges for the future.

© Royal Academy of Engineering November 2015

www.raeng.org.uk/congestion

ISBN: 978-1-909327-23-8

Published by Royal Academy of Engineering Prince Philip House 3 Carlton House Terrace London SW1Y 5DG

Tel: 020 7766 0600 www.raeng.org.uk

Registered Charity Number: 293074 Contents

Foreword...... 3

Executive summary...... 4

1. Introduction...... 6 1.1 Focus and structure of the paper...... 8 1.2 Defining the congestion problem...... 8 1.3 Current policy measures...... 9 1.4 Presenting the critical sectors for congestion reduction...... 9 1.4.1 Inter-urban and urban road transport...... 9 1.4.2 Inter-urban and urban rail passenger transport...... 10 1.4.3 Inter-urban and urban ...... 10 1.5 An overview of the strategies and that could reduce congestion...... 10 2. The range of solutions that could reduce congestion in the period to 2030...... 12 2.1 Methodology and structure of the paper...... 14 3. Congestion reduction measures...... 16 3.1 Reducing congestion in the inter-urban and urban road market...... 18 3.1.1 Efficient ...... 18 3.1.2 Reform of services...... 19 3.1.3 Parking control and enforcement...... 20 3.1.4 clubs...... 21 3.1.5 Smart Motorways...... 21 3.1.6 The Connected Car...... 22 3.1.7 Bus (BRT)...... 22 3.1.8 and ...... 23 3.2 Reducing crowding in the urban and inter-urban rail market...... 24 3.2.1 stock reform...... 24 3.2.2 Driver advisoryaystems...... 24 3.2.3 Control, command and (CCC) systems...... 25 3.3 Reducing congestion in the inter-urban and urban freight markets...... 25 3.3.1 Home and ‘last mile’ solutions...... 26 3.3.2 Retiming deliveries...... 27 3.3.3 Improved systems: urban consolidation centres (UCCs)...... 27 3.3.4 Horizontal collaboration between operators...... 27 3.3.5 Higher capacity urban delivery ...... 28 3.3.6 Higher capacity vehicles: long-haul operations...... 28 3.3.7 Restructuring of logistics networks...... 29 4. The potential contribution of a package of measures by sector...... 30

Acknowledgements...... 33

Appendix 1. Other measures considered as part of the study...... 34

Appendix 2. References and endnotes...... 35

The transport congestion challenge 1 2 Royal Academy of Engineering Foreword

Transport congestion matters. It creates cost and inconvenience for and people alike. At its most basic, congestion wastes people’s lives.

Our transport networks bring life to our country. They connect businesses together, join people with jobs, deliver all the goods those people and businesses need and enable all the myriad other journeys that people choose to make. Congestion is what happens when is there is an imbalance between demand and capacity.

Through the last three centuries the transport network has kept pace with, indeed made possible, the country’s growth with the creation of, successively, the waterway, rail, then road and air networks on which we depend. We now see a drive by government to create new transport to meet the needs of this century with investment in both modernising and developing completely new , conventional and high speed rail, and urban passenger lines.

Welcome as the major schemes such as Crossrail, HS2, light rail and trunk roads are in creating essential long-term new capacity, they are huge undertakings that will take many years to realise and challenge our available resources, particularly finance and skills. We simply cannot rely on new-build alone to provide the whole answer, especially in our major .

This is a major challenge for the UK that this paper seeks to examine, by considering the transport networks we already have and assessing the technical practicality of ways of getting more out of them, either to buy time before new infrastructure can be delivered or as the most effective means of achieving improvements. It is the work of a number of Fellows of the Royal Academy of Engineering with experience in the transport sector. The focus is on the short and medium term, with assessment of the realistic likely benefits against the costs and effort involved. ‘Frontrunners’ considered to offer the greatest potential to reduce congestion before 2030 are identified.

The paper also considers ways of managing and smoothing demand as well as increasing capacity.

Rather than present a formal policy position of the Royal Academy of Engineering, this paper aims to provide informed analysis of the potential of the various engineering solutions available, with the objective of promoting further discussion with policymakers and the public about the opportunities and challenges for the future.

Professor Andrew McNaughton FREng Chair of the Academy’s Transport CoP

The transport congestion challenge 3 Executive summary

The congestion problem Measures to tackle infrastructure should be built with both congestion capacity-enhancing and demand-side In the period from now to 2030, congestion measures in mind. throughout the UK’s transport system Within the context of this problem, the is set to become substantially worse. A working group conducted a study on the combination of population growth and available technologies and policy measures Assessment of per capita increases in GDP is likely to that are capable of reducing congestion individual technologies increase the demand for and generate in the most critical transport sectors by i and policy measures more . 2030. The scope was limited to domestic, The full range of potential technologies The latest predictions from the Department land-based passenger and freight transport and policy measures were considered by for Transport (DfT) estimate that, on the as these are the sectors that account for the working group and assessed in terms of English road network, this growth in traffic is the bulk of domestic transport. However, their cost, congestion reduction potential likely to translate to a 55% increase in road it is recognised that and shipping and overall value for money. Of these, congestion in the period to 2040. are both vital components of the national transport system and the , and 18 frontrunners were identified across the Of even more concern, congestion on the should be included in any future transport road, rail and freight sectors. Strategic Road Network — the portion of the strategy. The study ranged from capacity- Figure 1 shows how each of the network that carries a third of all road traffic maximising technologies designed to make frontrunners was graded in each of the and two thirds of freight traffic — is predicted the most of the available infrastructure, parameters (see Section 2 for details). ii to climb by 60% over the same period. On through to demand-side measures the rail network, total passenger miles are designed to reduce congestion, especially expected to increase by between 15% and at peak times. Congestion in the urban 50% on 2020 levels by 2033iii. Growth will and inter-urban road This is not to discount the government’s be broad-based, across each of the major passenger markets rail markets, although London and the South major programme of capital investment in East will continue to experience the most new infrastructure. Significant investment Efficient pricing offers the best value for widespread crowding. will certainly add to capacity. This includes money and strongest congestion reduction vi £15 billion on the strategic road network potential of any measure, across both the The UK already suffers some of the worst vii and £38 billion on rail over the next five inter-urban and urban road passenger congestion in Europeiv, with various years. Nevertheless, this existing supply markets. In an inter-urban context, the data demonstrating that the state of the pipeline is unlikely to meet the task of only other measure that offers significant country’s road and rail infrastructure is a keeping pace with demand growth and, potential is smart motorways (controlling relative disincentive for inward investmentv. because of the length of time it takes speeds and using the hard shoulder). In a more competitive global economy, to build new infrastructure, cannot be where future is likely to expected to offer the sole solution to In an urban road context, the following continue to be linked closely with greater congestion problems in 2030. This is measures offer value for money in reducing demand for physical travel, the quality of a compounded by the fact that, in the case of congestion, in order of descending value for country’s transport infrastructure becomes rail, investments plans are taking longer and money: parking controls, car clubs, reformed an increasingly important determinant of costing more than expected. bus services, , light rail and economic success. Congestion in road traffic the ‘connected car’ (vehicles that use radio also increases the levels of emissions of Demand-side measures are also vital as traffic information systems and dynamic both and pollutants that will they provide additional policy levers that navigation to reduce delays). They can all impact on the UK’s ability to meet climate are capable of more quickly responding support congestion reduction at a national change and air quality targets. This makes to and reducing excessive congestion. level. While fully automated vehicles are now reducing congestion a growing concern for It is therefore important that supply- being developed more intensively, we do not policymakers. side measures should be coupled with see them making a significant contribution demand management and that any new to congestion reduction in the next 15 years.

4 Royal Academy of Engineering Executive summary

Figure 1: value for money Car clubs Parking control E cient pricing grading of congestion cost Revenue neutral/ reduction measures very inexpensive

Horizontal Connected car Retiming Reform of bus Inexpensive collaboration deliveries services, Home delivery

Bus rapid transit Rolling stock Moderate cost reform, Driver excellent to limited advisory system value for money High capacity High capacity Light rail, Urban Smart Expensive long-haul urban consolidation motorways centres

Logistic Control, Very expensive restructuring command and communication

limited moderate good very good excellent congestion reduction potential

Congestion in the urban In the immediate future, capacity- inexpensive to administer and offers and inter-urban rail enhancement on the rail network could be excellent value for money. It could be offered through a package of measures supported by robust measures such as re- passenger markets including reforms to increase the supply timing deliveries to the off-peak, horizontal On the rail network, control, command of rolling stock and the utilisation of driver collaboration between operators (combining and communication (CCC) technologies — advisory systems (DAS). This would help deliveries to reduce ‘empty ’) and the encompassing the use of - relieve until CCC technologies can use of urban consolidation centres (UCCs). be delivered at scale. based train controls to locate on In an inter-urban context, horizontal the network more efficiently and enable collaboration is also applicable. In addition, advanced traffic management — could offer Congestion in the urban the adoption of high-capacity long-haul significant increases in capacity. However, and inter-urban freight vehicles and restructuring logistics (for while offering a viable solution to congestion example centric logistics, whereby reduction, these technologies require markets is unloaded, stored and distributed complementary investment in stations In an urban freight context, the home from the port itself) may offer some and other infrastructure, and the scope for delivery of goods bought via the internet congestion reduction potential but both are network-wide roll-out before 2030 is likely to stimulate the greatest gains likely to be quite expensive to implement. is limited. in reducing congestion, is relatively

Conclusions and coherent whole. Firstly, packaging can network offers the single best way recommendations produce synergistic gains, meaning that of tackling congestion. It represents the effect of a number of measures excellent value for money and is combined together is greater than the technically viable now. The main barriers The working group agreed sum of their individual contributions. to implementation relate to public the following conclusions and and political concerns that it restricts recommendations which are Secondly, packaging of measures can presented for discussion. allow the barriers to one measure to people’s ability to travel and adversely be compensated for by another, which affects low income groups; however, • Government should develop an is important in making them publicly empirical evidence shows that well- integrated strategy for tackling road acceptable. The greatest potential for designed pricing schemes can attract and rail congestion over the next 15 packaging of measures appears to be in popular support and achieve substantial years and beyond. Such a strategy the urban road passenger market. reduction in levels of congestion with must include continued infrastructure only small decreases in the volume of investment in conjunction with capacity- • The strategy should also ensure that traffic. maximising technologies and demand- approaches in each sector are compatible side policy levers aimed at managing less with each other and, in particular, that Of the individual technologies and time critical trips away from peak periods. freight measures contribute to, and take measures available, those that offer full advantage of, congestion relief on the best value for money in reducing • It is important to recognise that the the road network. congestion are listed in Table 2 and greatest impact on congestion will be considered in more detail in the paper. when technologies and other measures • Of all the available interventions are packaged together as part of a considered, efficient pricing on the road

The transport congestion challenge 5 1. Introduction

6 Royal Academy of Engineering The transport congestion challenge 7 1. Introduction

1.1 Focus and structure integrates all modes of transport, and the the road network, with prices set to reflect of the Paper omission of aviation and shipping from the costs imposed in terms of delay and this paper should not be considered as disruption to other road users. Such a pricing The Academy’s Engineering Policy questioning that conclusion.viii This paper regime should encourage those who benefit Committee invited Fellows from within the focuses on reducing congestion in the near least from travelling in congested conditions Academy’s Transport Community of Practice term, in those areas of the transport system to find alternatives. As a result, delays would (TCoP), a group of transport experts from that are most immediately jeopardising this fall, but speeds would still be lower than in and academia, to consider the country’s economic competitiveness. free-flow traffic. potential of a range of technologies and Different approaches to measuring road policy measures that are capable of reducing congestion result in different projections congestion in the most critical transport 1.2 Defining the of its economic costs. Earlier attempts sectors by 2030: congestion problem to measure the cost of congestion by • capacity-maximising measures designed Congestion is most often associated comparing it with free flow travel came to make the most of the available with and occurs when the up with a figure in the region of £20bn a infrastructure volume of traffic approaches the available year.ix More recently, the DfT’s Road User capacity. This leads to queuing, resulting in Pricing Feasibility study (2004), which used • regulation and management of journey times becoming longer and more marginal social cost pricing, suggested and transport companies unpredictable. Congestion also exists on that a national system of charging had the (often by government) the rail network with overcrowding arising potential to save around £10–12 billion a • demand-side measures designed to when the demand for a approaches year. The independent Case for Action report reduce congestion, especially at peak its capacity. The main impact is on journey (2006), conducted by Sir Rod Eddington, times, by displacing traffic to other times quality rather than delay, but this still exerts also used the marginal social cost approach of the day or less congested parts of the an adverse impact on the economy. to congestion to find that the direct GDP transport network. Congestion varies according to time of day, benefits of a system of pricing would be worth around £15 billion a year by 2025.x The brief was to publish this analysis in tending to be at its most pronounced during These studies have differed in the detail a ‘challenge paper’, designed to promote the morning and afternoon peaks as a result of their calculations, but provide a realistic informed discussion on the issues, rather of travel to and from work or school. indication of the scale of the problem and than setting out a formal policy position of It is most severe in larger urban areas of the potential benefits resulting from the Academy. The paper considers solutions and on the strategic long distance routes reduced congestion. within the context of currently planned connecting them. infrastructure provision. But, as discussed The purpose of this study is not to conduct further in this paper, it was accepted that Road congestion is a complex phenomenon an investigation into the relative merits of the newly planned infrastructure would and is difficult to define and measure different approaches to costing congestion. not be sufficient, on its own, to achieve precisely. The working group preferred Nor is it within its remit to precisely quantify significant reductions in congestion. the marginal cost approach to measuring the amount of congestion that could be congestion, which compares the cost reduced from the network by a range of It was decided that the scope of the analysis imposed by a journey with the benefit policy interventions. However, one must should be domestic, land-based passenger gained. The cost of congestion is the acknowledge the presence of congestion and freight transport — road and rail — given difference between the two, and would now, note that it undoubtedly imposes a that these sectors make up the bulk of the in theory be zero when all journeys made cost on the economy and observe that, by domestic market. However, as the Academy had benefits that at least equalled the all sensible interpretation of the available argued in its 2005 report Transport 2050, costs which they imposed. As can be seen evidence, this cost is likely to increase a systems approach is needed for the in Section 3, the working group proposes significantly in the period to 2030. management of all the nation’s transport a system of marginal social cost pricing for infrastructure, leading to a strategy that

8 Royal Academy of Engineering Introduction

Figure 2: passenger transport by mode, 900 1952 to 2013 800 Source: Department for Transport, Transport Statistics Great Britain 2014 700

600

, and taxis 500 rail and coaches 400

300 Billion passenger kilometres 200

100

0 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1.3 Current policy management of demand growth, to help 1.4.1 Inter-urban and urban road xiii measures reduce congestion in the near term. Not passenger transport only does this remove from the equation Road transport remains by far the most The working group recognises the significant a policy lever that could generate an dominant mode of travel in the UK. Road amount of capital investment that has been impact within this study’s time horizon, it transport carries 90% of passenger journeys committed by the government to improve also ignores a measure that is capable of and two thirds of freight movements. As the national road and particularly the rail preserving the economic gains accruing from can be seen from Figure 2, much of the infrastructure. This commitment includes new infrastructure in the long term continued rise in total passenger travel over continued and new rail investment including — thus risking some of these gains being the last 60 years results from the increase Crossrail (1 & 2) and the Thameslink upgrade, eroded by the effects of excess generated in distance travelled in cars, vans and taxis, High Speed 2 (HS2), the Northern Rail traffic. It remains important that any new with 68% of all commuter trips undertaken Hub, Great Western Electrification and a supply that does get built for the long term as either a driver or passenger in a car.xiv commitment to invest over £15 billion in the is planned and designed with demand-side strategic roads infrastructure by 2021.xi Yet measures in mind. The DfT’s central forecasts anticipate that this supply pipeline, even if fully operational road traffic in England will increase by 30% by 2030, would still be inadequate to the 1.4 Presenting the in the period to 2030. Under these forecasts, task of keeping pace with demand growth. traffic growth would translate to a 40% Such is the length of time it typically takes critical sectors for growth in congestion across all roads by for sizeable new infrastructure to be built congestion reduction 2030 and a 72% growth in congestion on that it is now too late to supplement this the Strategic Road Network specifically.xv pipeline with additional schemes that are This paper identifies three critical sectors The working group acknowledges wider capable of exerting a significant impact for congestion reduction: road passenger concerns that the DfT has historically within the next 15 years, although such transport (both urban and inter-urban), rail overestimated traffic growth. There is also schemes should be progressed vigorously to passenger transport (again, urban and inter- some evidence that travel by car may have provide longer-term congestion relief. This urban) and freight transport (comprising peaked in some socio-economic groups, leads to the conclusion that the supply- urban and inter-urban road and rail sectors). perhaps in response to changing social focused approach to congestion relief in the Congestion in other sectors, such as the behaviour brought about by growing virtual government’s National Policy Statement need for new aviation capacity in the South connectedness. However, the working group for National Networks is insufficient, and East, is not addressed, but its omission from sees no evidence that such social trends that constraining policy in this way the study should not be seen as an attempt will reduce the problem of congestion by escalating the country’s congestion problem to disregard the problem. Rather, the themselves. significantly by 2030.xii objective is to present targeted solutions to the sectors that play the most significant There has been a decline in the rate at which In terms of a demand-side response, the role in the domestic transport system, and road traffic has grown over the last 20 years National Policy Statement has explicitly to use that as a springboard from which to and the period between 2007 and 2010 ruled out the potential for pricing, or the achieve further progress. was unprecedented in yielding consecutive

The transport congestion challenge 9 Table 1: growth in rail passenger miles Year 2020 2026 2030 from 2011 London and South East 17–21% 28–34% 34–42% Long distance 22–28% 39–49% 50–63% Regional 8–10% 16–20% 19–24% Total (average) 17–21% 29–36% 36–46%

Source: Network Modelling Framework (NMF) — estimates based on model runs conducted in October 2011

annual falls in the total volume of traffic Government forecasts anticipate that each of Lorries account for approximately 5% on the roads. Yet traffic levels have been the three main rail markets (London and the of all road traffic, by miles, while growing since the beginning of 2013xvi, south east, long distance and ) vans account for approximately 14%. This in the wake of economic recovery, and will continue to grow in the period to 2030, compares with the roughly 80% of road appear to reinforce the DfT’s position that, expecting that total passenger miles on the traffic which is made up by cars and following historical trends, a restoration of rail network will increase by between 36 and taxis.xxiii Road freight makes up by far the per capita growth in GDP and increases in 46% above 2011 levels — see Table 1.xxii largest proportion of domestic freight population will combine to generate more movements, at approximately 68% of Congestion on the rail network is traffic.xvii The DfT accepts that there may be tonne-km. By contrast, rail takes a 9% experienced as overcrowding, describing a saturation point in car ownership in some market share, with waterborne (mainly a situation in which the demand for rail markets in the future, but maintains that coastal) freight movements at 19% and services exceeds the capacity of available there are plenty of other markets capable pipeline at 5%.xxiv trains. of faciliating continued demand for private, The trend in road freight traffic has differed motorised travel.xviii Meanwhile, a separate This is the product of capacity, between vans and lorries. In 2013, the study into the occurrence of ‘peak car’ found number of in a train and the number of lorries on the roads was smaller that, while it may have affected pockets of frequency of train services. The DfT than 2006, as was lorries’ share of total road the country’s population, as much as 70% captures overcrowding mainly through a traffic. traffic grew, on both measures, remain unaffected by it.xix measure known as passengers in excess of over the same period: increasing its share capacity (PiXC). This represents the number Road congestion is worst in large urban of total road traffic from 12% to 14%.xxv of standard class passengers on a service areas and some busy inter-urban corridors Despite this, government forecasts still in excess of the standard class capacity with figures showing that average traffic expect both van and lorry traffic to increase, at the critical load point. Overcrowding on flows on urban roads are significantly higher with vans expected to experience the the rail network does not produce delays in than those on rural roads.xx fastest rate of growth of all road vehicles.xxvi the same way that congestion does on the 1.4.2 Inter-urban and urban rail road network. Rail operators can control It is important to note that, just because the number of vehicles on the network lorry traffic is declining as a proportion of passenger transport and deliberately operate below maximum total road traffic, this does not necessarily In the period since privatisation in the capacity because of the reduced reliability mean that congestion is becoming a lesser mid-1990s, the number of journeys on the that full utilisation would create. Trains problem for the freight industry. On the rail network has more than doubled. During therefore become overcrowded rather than Strategic Road Network, for example, this period, has enjoyed the the network becoming congested. where congestion is forecast to be strongest percentage growth in passenger increasing stronglyxxvii, lorries still make up a usage (by miles travelled) of any mode of 1.4.3 Inter-urban and urban disproportionately large part of the traffic (at transport, despite the enduring dominance freight transport a 10% share, this is more than double lorries’ of automotive transport in providing the share of all trafficxxviii). Most freight transport operations have to largest modal share of all journeys. work alongside and in conjunction with road The vast majority of this demand for rail and rail passenger transport. Roads that 1.5 An overview of travel has been generated by new journeys, become congested with cars restrict the the strategies and rather than demand being displaced from flow of lorries and vans; the movement of other modes onto the rail network. This freight traffic from road to rail in order to technologies that could goes some way towards explaining the free up road passenger transport potentially reduce congestion relative lack of modal shift during the last restricts the capacity of the rail network for Policymakers have available to them a range decade, despite the surge in rail travel; public passenger travel. Any strategy to improve of policy levers that can be used to reduce transport’s share of all journeys only rose freight transport, and reduce congestion, transport congestion and crowding. These from 9% to 11% between the mid-1990s must be seen within the context of what include adding to infrastructure, managing and 2014, the period since rail it would do to passenger transport, and the way that existing infrastructure is used, privatisation.xxi vice versa. regulating the operation and use of the

10 Royal Academy of Engineering Introduction

transport system, pricing its use, promoting charged for but, with a few exceptions, the opportunities for more extensive use of behaviour change, and introducing new use of road space itself is not. and smart cards, ideally technologies that offer new forms of travel combined with those for road-based modes These policy levers are best applied as a or, by extension, alternatives to travel. of transport. package; many will complement each other. Digital systems can contribute in different For example, pricing the roads to discourage Freight transport is directly influenced ways to each of these types of policy private car use in favour of less congesting by the changes made to the supply, lever and also provide a vital platform in modes is best combined with measures that management and pricing of road and rail. integrating and enabling them. They can also bolster the supply of , such Increases in capacity, through new supply help reduce congestion by improving the as light rail or an efficient bus network, in or better management, will benefit road performance, and users’ perceptions, of less order to improve their attractiveness as a freight; new rail lines will potentially add congesting modes of transport. viable alternative to car travel. to freight capacity, and pricing of road use Between them, these policy levers can will affect the costs of road freight. Some In terms of urban and inter-urban rail be applied to influence congestion and measures could act differentially on freight, transport, conventional supply-side crowding through strategies that reduce such as the provision of specific regulations measures involve building new lines and the need to travel, especially during peak on lorry size or emission standards. More stations and adding additional tracks and periods; reduce the use of the car, which importantly, freight operators will respond reconfiguring junctions with signalling makes less efficient use of road space; differently from private travellers, since upgrades, lengthening trains and increasing improve the performance of the road they typically have fewer alternatives, and service frequency. While several such network; improve public transport in its their decisions are strongly influenced by projects are underway at present, the plans own right and as an alternative to private the place of transportation in the wider for HS2 demonstrate clearly that it will take transport; and directly improve the operation production and distribution chain. a substantial time for such measures to have of freight transport. a significant impact on overall capacity. In The main freight-specific policy levers The following paragraphs illustrate how urban areas, improvements from Crossrail, relate to vehicle size and design, the use of these types of policy lever might be applied the Thameslink upgrade and extensions to consolidation centres, the impact of tele- in each of the different transport markets. Manchester Metrolink will enhance capacity, shopping and the use of distribution centres. but it is questionable whether they will be at To improve urban and inter-urban road Although the major focus of this project sufficient scale. The other more immediate transport, supply-side measures would was to consider transport measures that response is to lengthen trains and stations include new road building and road widening can reduce congestion, it is important to to increase the capacity of each train schemes. However, there are other ways in recognise that there is a wider range of movement. which the capacity of the road network can policies that can be employed to reduce be enhanced. For example, management Among management measures, the most congestion that do not exclusively apply to of road space can include schemes such significant developments are control, the transport sector. For example, reforms as smart motorways, which increase command and communication (CCC) to planning, such as ensuring that capacity and reliability. Regulation is applied technologies, incorporating communication- new housing developments are designed principally to the ways in which roads can be based train control to locate from the outset with an integrated transport used (such as speed limits) but also to the trains more accurately on the network and system, could reduce congestion simply by operation of freight vehicles and, particularly, enable the available capacity to be improving people’s proximity to facilities. public transport. In public transport, pricing used more intensively. These technologies With four million new homes needed by and regulation are closely linked, with bus will begin to have an impact before 2030 2030, transport requirements should be a use being affected by service patterns but will not be fully operational until key consideration in the location, density and levels and by the ability of local around 2040. and layout of new residential and associated authorities to influence them. Pricing, as a and employment developments. Regulation and pricing are already widely policy tool, is much less developed for private applied in the rail sector, but there are transport. In urban areas, some parking is

The transport congestion challenge 11 2. The range of solutions that could reduce congestion in the period to 2030

12 Royal Academy of Engineering The transport congestion challenge 13 2. The range of solutions that could reduce congestion in the period to 2030 This section sets out a list of the ‘frontrunner’ technologies and policies that are considered to have the best potential to reduce congestion before 2030. They are drawn from a longer list of measures that were considered by the working group. Three measures — autonomous vehicles, and diverting more freight to the rail network — were considered to have potential to reduce congestion but not at sufficient scale in the timescale being considered and, as such, not given frontrunner status. Further details on these can be found in Appendix 1.

2.1 Methodology and necessarily broad as a strict, objective The barriers are given a rating to structure of the paper comparison of measures would be difficult indicate how important they are thought given the different characteristics of each to be. Each measure was assessed independently measure, for example variations in capital Section 3 considers each of the on the basis of cost of implementation versus operating costs, passenger or freight frontrunner measures in more detail. Policy (using a scale from very expensive to or technology versus logistical restructuring. recommendations are included concerning very inexpensive/revenue neutral) and Table 2 lists each of the frontrunners in their implementation and how the barriers on its potential to reduce congestion order of value for money grouped by road might be overcome by policymakers. (using a scale from limited to excellent). passenger, rail passenger and freight. The overall value for money of each Finally, Section 4 considers how The table also lists what the working measure was then assessed in the range combinations of the measures could be group considers to be the main barriers to from limited to excellent by comparing its packaged together in such a way as to implementation for each measure. Possible congestion reduction potential and cost of maximise congestion relief, find synergies barriers include those that would make it implementation. Figure 1 on page 5 gives between measures and help overcome harder to implement a measure effectively details of how each of the frontrunner barriers. — legal, political, institutional, public and measures was graded. It should be noted technical, and those that reflect a potential that the grading was the subjective weakness in the measure in terms of assessment of the working group based transport system goals — environmental, on their experience and expertise. It is safety and equity.

14 Royal Academy of Engineering The range of solutions that could reduce congestion in the period to 2030

Table 2: Frontrunner congestion Measure Value for money Main barriers reduction measures Efficient pricing Excellent • Legal, political public and stakeholder acceptability Reform of bus services Excellent • Political acceptability and institutional Parking control Very good • Political, public and stakeholder acceptability Car clubs Good • Legal, regulatory and institutional Smart motorways Good • Institutional and public and stakeholder acceptability Connected car Good • Legal, regulatory and institutional

Bus rapid transit Moderate Legal, regulatory and Inter-urban and urban road passenger sector • BRT institutional Light rail Moderate • Legal, regulatory and institutional Rolling stock reform Good • Institutional and political acceptability

Driver advisory systems Good Legal, regulatory and DAS • Institutional Control, command and Moderate • Institutional, technical rail passenger sector Inter-urban and urban communication technologies feasibility and

Home deliveries Excellent Legal, regulatory and public shop • and stakeholder acceptability Retiming deliveries Very good • Political, public and stakeholder acceptability Urban consolidation centres Moderate • Institutional

Horizontal collaboration Moderate • Institutional, technical feasibility and risk High-capacity urban Moderate • Institutional, public delivery vehicles and stakeholder acceptability

Higher capacity vehicles: Limited Legal, regulatory and Inter-urban and urban freight sector • long-haul operations political acceptability Restructuring the logistic Limited • Institutional and technical network feasibility and risk

The transport congestion challenge 15 3. Congestion reduction measures

16 Royal Academy of Engineering The transport congestion challenge 17 3. Congestion reduction measures

3.1 Reducing congestion Only small overall reductions in the level the application of discounts and exemptions, in the inter-urban and of overall traffic need to be generated funded by the revenues it accrues, and by a pricing scheme in order to produce packaging with alternative forms of urban road market disproportionately large effects in terms of transport, can ensure that it does not reducing congestion. disproportionately affect low income groups. Indeed, in its most efficient form road pricing Road pricing would stimulate a variety of 3.1.1 Efficient pricing could come with a radical reduction in other responses from road users other than simply road including fuel duty. Value for money : excellent not travelling. Improvements to digital systems over Costs : revenue neutral It would encourage some motorists to the last 10 years call for an update to the Congestion reduction potential : excellent pick alternative modes of transport; some government’s position, as contained in its would be discouraged from undertaking less Road Feasibility Study (2004), that a system important journeys, removing demand from The potential of road pricing applies of national pricing is technically feasible the system altogether; some would replace equally to the inter-urban and urban but potentially costly and hindered by the longer journeys by shorter ones; some would road market. inadequacies of available technology. Case either retime their journeys to the off-peak studies from overseasxxx should be used to This analysis concludes that efficient pricing period or use less congested areas of the help determine the best delivery system for of the road network is technically the best road network in order to avoid charges; applying charging in the UK. It is important instrument at the disposal of policymakers in and there would be some consolidation of that this decision encompasses assessment order to reduce congestion. By introducing journeys and more vehicle sharing. a charge to reflect the marginal cost of the risks of each of the choices, including imposed by an additional journey on the The effect of this targeted measure would the implications of the introduction of road network, it encourages those whose be to make substantial cuts in levels of pricing on safety. congestion while limiting the inconvenience benefits from travelling are less than this It is important to recognise that pricing to consumers; a particularly important cost to find alternatives. These charges would also apply to freight traffic, although point given that the major barriers to its would vary considerably by time and place, its impact on this sector would be likely implementation are seen as being public and with many roads being free of charge. to be more limited, since operators are political resistance. Efficient pricing should The annualised operating costs would be less flexible and driven, in part at least, by reduce the need for, and the scale of, new high, but more than offset by the revenue clients’ demands. The application of pricing road building, and should help avoid new generated; hence the assessment that this to freight would probably limit congestion roads becoming congested. measure is largely revenue neutral. Value for principally by reducing the occurrence of money is therefore excellent. Political antipathy to the measure is typically ‘empty running’ (see Section 3.1iv). But Efficient pricing should reduce the need based on the perception that the public goods traffic would receive substantial for, and the scale of, new road building, and the business community see road benefits from the reduction in congestion and should help new roads avoid becoming pricing as imposing an extra cost on the resulting from changes in car traffic levels. congested. The primary purpose of charging road user, and as having unfair impacts on road users is not to impede people’s ability to businesses and lower income motorists in Critical issues for implementation xxix travel; nor is it designed to produce dramatic charged areas. Yet international evidence • Surplus revenues should be used initially reductions in overall levels of road usage. indicates that a properly communicated to reduce or replace current vehicle Rather, its purpose is to promote an efficient and constructed road pricing strategy has ownership and fuel taxes, thus addressing level of road use: where the benefits the potential to overcome such resistance the perceived unfairness of current derived from each individual journey are at and tends to mobilise support for pricing regimes. Where appropriate, remaining least equal to the costs they impose, and among host populations in the medium term. revenues should be spent on wider a charging mechanism encourages drivers Road pricing has been characterised as a enhancements to the transport system. whose journeys do not meet this criterion to monolithic policy instrument that affects • Government should take account of choose alternatives. transport users indiscriminately. However, it can be flexed to suit local conditions and international evidence that suggests

18 Royal Academy of Engineering Congestion reduction measures

broad business and public acceptance The regulated nature of the market helps of well-designed pricing regimes which 3.1.2 Reform of bus services maintain a high level of service, with the

are seen to be transparent, fair and provision of integrated ticketing, real-time designed to avoid undue impacts on Value for money : excellent passenger information and frequent, good disadvantaged groups. Political resistance Costs : inexpensive quality vehicles bolstering the perception to road pricing is the single biggest of buses as an attractive alternative to car Congestion reduction potential : very good barrier to implementation, and needs and Underground use. The government a careful planning, communication and has recently recognised this by offering marketing effort. Good quality and affordable bus services can franchising powers to Greater Manchester help limit congestion by encouraging people and, potentially, to other , as • Any inter-urban charging regime should away from their cars. well as to Cornwall. be introduced nationally, and should apply to all areas and times where there is Evidence suggests that where these In the largely deregulated market outside significant congestion and in ways which services form part of an integrated transport London, there have been different attempts avoid transfer of problems to local roads. network, ridership figures will increase; to introduce more integrated bus services. whether through coordinated, multi- For example, there are cases where • National government and local authorities operator ticketing schemes or fully specified competing operators have coordinated should reassess their investment policies (potentially franchised) services, a planned their activity through multi-operator and to reflect the impacts of such pricing network can make bus travel more flexible multi-modal tickets.xxxii Some small cities regimes on travel patterns, and hence on and convenient for passengers. Its principal have managed to generate substantial the need for new capacity. benefit, however, is that it allows a local investment in their bus services, and • The government should update the transport authority to deploy resources to increased levels of bus use through effective review of technologies included in the match demand, satisfy unmet access needs, partnership with a single dominant bus Road Pricing Feasibility Study of 2004, and contribute to congestion reduction on operator. and promote the further development key corridors. The development of more integrated of those technologies which offer the The best example of the benefits of a closely networks, whatever the model and greatest potential for cost-effective specified, more integrated bus network wherever they occur, should be encouraged charging, payment and enforcement is London, where, between 1986/87 where they are better able to match systems. and 2014/15, bus journeys more than demand, serve unmet needs and contribute • Within the national context, local doubled, alongside a more than doubling to relief of congestion. However, in areas authorities should consider introducing in Underground use, in stark contrast to where greater integration is not possible urban pricing regimes, where additional the rest of England where bus journeys because independent operators anticipate congestion reduction is needed, with any decreased by a third.xxxi In London, bus profit in competing with one another rather additional revenue accruing to their urban services are provided through a franchising than coordinating their services, the local transport system. However, care will be scheme in which the local transport transport authority should be given powers needed to ensure that any local schemes authority (Transport for London) specifies to plan and specify the network in line are fully compatible with the national routes, , frequencies and service quality with the guiding principles of providing for scheme. and services are provided by commercial unmet needs and contribution to congestion bus operators on multi-year contracts reduction. after a process of competitive tendering.

The transport congestion challenge 19 The regulatory environment for change 3.1.3 Parking control and All forms of control are only likely to is complicated. Though there are already enforcement work effectively if they are appropriately powers in existence for local authorities enforced. to let services to private operators, Value for money : very good Parking controls offer a largely demand-side through Quality Contracts, the legislative Costs : revenue neutral application in terms of reducing congestion, requirements for these contracts are Congestion reduction potential : moderate though they can also increase the supply of demanding, as are restrictions imposed by road space by freeing up capacity previously the Competition and Markets Authority. used for on- parking. The costs Understandably, commercial operators also Parking is an important service for attached to their implementation are very have reservations about restrictions on their motorists and should not be discouraged low: because parking controls are already commercial flexibility. The government’s indiscriminately. However, in congested in place, the main costs are in intensifying current route of providing franchising conditions in urban areas, controlling the such measures and enhancing enforcement powers to local authorities offers a much availability and use of parking spaces can of them, costs for both of which should be more effective solution. contribute to congestion relief in three covered by the revenues they generate. The principal ways. Restricting on-street parking resulting value for money is excellent. Critical issues for implementation at critical points in an urban network (such as • The development of more integrated near road junctions or schools) can increase The most severe barriers for more intensive bus networks should be encouraged the capacity of that network. Charging and parking controls relate to the lack of political where they are better able to match restrictions on parking duration can ensure and public and stakeholder acceptability. demand, serve unmet needs and that there is always spare parking space Political resistance is based on a perception contribute to relief of congestion. Service available and so reduce the amount of that the public and the business community performance should be reviewed against traffic searching for parking spaces. More will see parking controls as an unnecessary these requirements, in order to assess generally, controls on supply, usage and price and aggressive imposition on the road user, the appropriateness of alternative can reduce the attractiveness of accessing and as having unfair impacts on businesses approaches to bus service management. a city centre by car, and therefore help in controlled areas. The recent government reduce congestion on roads in the vicinity decision to prohibit local authorities from • The government should extend the and encourage a switch to less congesting using CCTV to enforce parking controls application of franchising powers to those modes. facilities on city fringes reflects these perceptions. In practice, authorities that would benefit from them, can reinforce such city centre controls. evidence indicates that well-designed town as a marked improvement to the current centre parking controls, with charges set to Parking controls, both on- and off-street, procedures for Quality Contracts. discourage searching, improve access for can be implemented in a number of ways. those with greatest need to park and make • Local authorities should monitor the Overall supply can be reduced, restrictions the centre more attractive. impacts of the application of such can be placed on opening times, durations measures to identify lessons for other and permitted users, and users can be Critical issues for implementation authorities that might wish to pursue a charged to park. Charging is likely to be the similar approach. most effective of these but needs, as with • Parking control is a local issue so local road pricing, to relate to the costs imposed authorities need freedom to implement by the user. For example, evidence from local solutions. Government should Nottingham suggests that the Workplace not unduly constrain its ability to use Parking Levy there operates principally as a effective and efficient means of parking source of revenue, rather than as a means of control and enforcement. reducing car use. • Government needs to encourage the application of parking controls to all public and private off-street spaces, including new measures to control private parking.

20 Royal Academy of Engineering Congestion reduction measures

• Local authorities should make use of Evidence suggests that membership of a car 3.1.5 Smart motorways parking controls to reduce congestion, club reduces car ownership and mileage. In including the use of new parking guidance one of the best-documented schemes, in Value for money : good and location technologies. Bremen, 50% of users owned cars, and of Costs : expensive these, 74% replaced a car by car sharing. In • Local authorities should ensure, through Congestion reduction potential : very good this way it is estimated that each car club car charging, that at least one in every seven removed eleven privately owned cars.xxxiii on-street and one in every 20 off-street Smart (or managed) motorways increase spaces is available at peak times to reduce Car clubs offer quite a good impact in the supply of road space by making the hard searching. reducing congestion. Despite solid growth shoulder available for traffic when needed, of about 10% per year in the UK market, • Parking controls should be enforced and by using variable speed control to the concentration of members in London in ways that achieve a combination of reduce the likelihood of disruption. As the suggests niche application so far.xxxiv chance of detection and penalty sufficient name indicates, this is a largely inter-urban However, the low costs and few barriers to deter illegal parking. At the same solution that provides very good congestion attached to their implementation and time enforcement actions need to avoid reduction potential but is not universally expansion do point towards the good value appearing unduly confrontational and to applicable in the way that efficient pricing for money offered by this intervention. be cost-effective in their use of resources. (an urban and inter-urban solution) is. Evidence in Europe suggests that cities In particular, suitable technology should The capital costs associated with smart can actively encourage their development, be used to reduce the resource costs of motorways are substantial, limiting its and that there may therefore be potential enforcement. overall value for money. for them to grow in the UK outside the capital. Local authorities may have a role in There are various levels of operation; promoting their use, not least as a measure dynamic use of the hard shoulder involves 3.1.4 Car clubs by which to reduce pressure on residential requisitioning that part of the carriageway Value for money : good parking spaces. intermittently and only when use of variable speed limits is no longer able to maintain the Costs : very inexpensive Critical issues for implementation smooth and reliable flow of traffic. ‘All- Congestion reduction potential : limited running’, on the other hand, operates the • The development of car clubs in the UK hard shoulder like a conventional running and internationally should be monitored lane unless it is needed for emergency or Car clubs — where several people have on the basis of their impact to traffic and maintenance purposes. access to a commonly used and commonly congestion. owned or rented vehicle — provide an It is possible to install the necessary • Local authorities should encourage the alternative to the conventional model of enhancements without having to close development of operational models for private ownership of automobiles. There are motorways but the roadside infrastructure car clubs that best support local policy a variety of models, from Zip Car, where club still needs careful re-engineering in order objectives. members can reserve a car for a short period to provide emergency refuge areas, which from dedicated on- or off-street facilities drivers still require. in the club’s domain, to peer-to-peer rental schemes in which a central brokerage Existing evidence indicates that the matches private owners’ vehicles with users deployment of smart motorways has needing transportation. reduced congestion, improved journey time reliability and reduced fuel consumption, Car clubs help reduce congestion by emissions and the rate of personal injury encouraging motorists to use automobiles accidents on the roads. The latest statistics more sparingly than if they owned the also indicate that they are able to deliver vehicle themselves. much of the benefits of road widening at substantially lower costs.xxxv

The transport congestion challenge 21 Another benefit of smart motorways is that disparate actors in the field, it is not clear transport alternative. It is the latter which they take less time to implement than road- where responsibility for this investment will contributes to congestion reduction. Impacts widening schemes as they require no land lie. Replacing the existing fleet of vehicles on car use vary. On the Cambridgeshire acquisition and are likely to be able to deliver with more sophisticated connected cars, Busway, 24% of users are reported as being more benefit before 2030 than conventional which would achieve the maximum benefit former car drivers but, given the scale of this supply-side alternatives.xxxvi in driver performance, is also a long-term scheme, this is probably at the upper limit of aspiration; this limits the congestion what BRT can achieve. However, any in-principle decision to adopt reduction potential of this intervention all-lane running, as opposed to ‘dynamic BRT is not a nationwide urban solution; within the next 15 years. use of the hard shoulder’ when introducing in some corridors, light rail may be more smart motorways, should not be taken suitable. Nonetheless, BRT tends to be a Critical issues for implementation without a thorough assessment of all relatively quick public transport mode to the risks, including the intelligibility and • More rapid take-up of connected car install. Costs of implementation will vary, compliance by motorists, as well as the technologies in new vehicles would bring depending on the complexity of the system balance of the benefits and costs. benefits. being proposed.

• Policies for active traffic management, There are three key barriers to the Critical issues for implementation road safety and congestion management implementation of BRT: institutional • The programme to introduce further should keep abreast of developments in arrangements, use of road space and BRT smart motorways should be continued communication in the vehicle fleet, and identity. Institutional arrangements require and accelerated and, where possible, help stimulate further development. cooperation between the local authority and extended to expressways. • Standardisation of communication the private companies operating commercial protocols for key functions in connected bus services. Motorists will resist reallocation cars should be progressed. of road space, but evidence of a cooperative 3.1.6 Connected car approach between authorities • Local authorities should ensure that Value for money : good and operators, and the demonstrated policies for active traffic management, benefits of the scheme can help reduce Costs : inexpensive road safety and congestion management this. A further potential barrier to BRT is Congestion reduction potential : moderate keep abreast of developments in a lack of clarity as to the identity of BRT communication in the vehicle fleet, and as a mode, unlike light rail (LRT) which is a help stimulate further development. The ‘connected car’ involves electronic relatively well-understood concept. This in-vehicle communications. Developments can make it difficult to ‘sell’ BRT proposals to stakeholders, especially where measures in internet connectivity, smartphone 3.1.7 Bus rapid transit (BRT) technology, electronic tagging and BRT such as road space reallocation are required. navigation mean that the range of types and Value for money : moderate The available evidence points towards uses of communications is expanding rapidly Costs : moderate cost BRT systems having been successful — and becoming ever more sophisticated. Congestion reduction potential : moderate the Cambridgeshire Busway carried 2.5m Congestion reduction is principally achieved passengers in its first year of operation, by radio traffic information systems, dynamic some 43% above forecast — which suggests Bus rapid transit (BRT) is a generic term for xxxvii navigation and parking information systems that these barriers should be navigable. a bus-based mass transit system designed that can increase drivers’ ability to avoid to provide reliable, frequent, fast and high- delays and therefore reduce congestion. Critical issues for implementation quality services. BRT is normally presented These are combined with the light rail But as these facilities become more as a distinct ‘brand’ with a separate image recommendations in the following section. common, unless networks are adapted to from conventional bus services and may be suit, the spare capacity they access will considered to be a distinct transport mode. diminish: their effect is therefore likely to be The physical design of BRT services varies 3.1.8 Light rail and trams positive but limited. widely but is distinguished by the fact that vehicles operating on BRT routes tend to Value for money : moderate This mix of technologies offers the potential spend a significant portion of their journey for rich vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle- Costs : expensive within a fully dedicated , also to- infrastructure communications, which Congestion reduction potential : good known as a bus way. Their objective is to opens up the possibility for progression from combine the capacity, speed and reliability information to advice, to various stages of of a light rail system with the flexibility and Light rail and trams comprise a family of regulating and ultimately controlling vehicle lower costs of a bus system and BRT has technologies enabling railway operations operations (such as autonomous cars). proved popular, and effective, across cities in that can range from vehicles on separate The barriers to adoption are not small. In the emerging and developed world. rights of way to on-street operation where order to achieve system-wide connectivity, road space is shared with conventional The principal objectives of BRT are to significant investment will be needed traffic. These technologies combine to improve accessibility and to replace more in vehicle, infrastructure and servicing provide a high capacity and rapid form of congesting car trips with a viable public capabilities and, given the large number of urban transportation. Off-street operations

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enable maximum speeds of up to 50mph on UK schemes having previously Critical issues for implementation between stops, while on-street running travelled by car, demonstrating the net • Effective institutional models for the xxxix provides passengers with lower speeds reduction in traffic that trams stimulate. delivery of BRT and light rail should but convenient city-centre / The main barriers to implementation of be established, taking account of the alighting points. light rail in the UK are cost and physical proposals for reform of bus services Similarly to BRT, the ability of light rail to space. In many UK contexts, relatively above. reduce congestion rests on encouraging low residential density results in corridor • Government should commission a modal shift away from more congesting patronage demands that do not justify review of the relative costs of light rail car journeys. It is more expensive than the costs of light rail and are better suited in the UK and continental BRT, but also offers greater capacity and to BRT. Physical space is also a barrier, Europe and seek ways of reducing the attractiveness to car users, so achieves particularly in historic urban centres where unit costs of UK designs. In particular, the greater reduction in congestion. Value for narrow would prevent operation of potential for avoiding utility diversions money is therefore similar to that for BRT. modern light rail vehicles without significant should be reviewed. changes to the urban fabric which, in turn, Existing evidence is broadly positive; carries significant costs. • Local authorities should monitor the in the cities that do operate light rail in impact of bus priorities, BRT and light rail the UK, the results suggest a significant There is some evidence that the UK design systems and the effects of road space increase in patronage over time — with total requirements make light rail more expensive reallocation, and should provide evidence journeys on this mode more than doubling to implement than in continental Europe. to improve the design, assessment and between 1997/98 and 2009/10. However, Principal reasons include the requirement promotion of such measures. this increase is largely driven by system to relocate utilities from below the tracks, extensions, and patronage related to system more intensive measures to separate • Local authorities should adopt a more length grew by around 25% over the same trams from other road users, an absence of holistic approach for urban design period.xxxviii Research also points towards common standards and the lack of a steady to ensure that BRT and light rail are approximately 20% of peak hour passengers investment pipeline. integrated with the urban fabric and other transport modes.

The transport congestion challenge 23 3.2 Reducing crowding However, if new rolling stock was fast- tracked over the next 15 years, as part of DAS in the urban and inter- 3.2.2 Driver advisory a national strategy designed to reduce systems urban rail market congestion incorporating significant modal xli shift, these costs could well escalate. Value for money : good 3.2.1 Rolling stock reform If fast-tracking of rolling stock proved not to Costs : moderate cost Value for money : good be possible, an alternative option might be Congestion reduction potential : good to extend the deadline by which domestic Costs : moderate cost industry needs to comply with an EU Congestion reduction potential : good directivexlii on persons with reduced mobility Driver advisory systems (DAS) are (EU PRM-TSI) — pushing what is a voluntary technologies that use a simple cab interface to transmit information to train drivers on Overcrowding on the railway is not wholly rather than mandatory arrangement beyond the status of critical junctions or stations the result of a lack of train paths but also of its present 2020 deadline. This directive they are approaching, helping them to short services (trains with fewer carriages requires the replacement of old rolling stock optimise their speeds to reduce congestion. than required to meet demand). that does not meet accessibility criteria for people with reduced mobility. The downside They provide more information than is Increasing the supply of rolling stock on is that delaying replacement would have presently available through the observation the rail network to make trains longer is adverse implications on accessibility goals. of lineside signalling. a supply-side measure that can bolster However, it would boost capacity by At their simplest, DAS enable the network capacity in the short term. enabling old stock to operate alongside controller to advise a driver to reduce speed New carriages can be added quickly and its replacement stock, at least in the to a specified value in order for a vehicle to prior experience shows that small additions short-term. arrive at a at a time when it is clear to the number of carriages can yield of conflicting movements; this prevents disproportionately positive effects in terms Critical issues for implementation the need to break or halt severely, enabling of servicing demand growth: between 1994 • Measures should be employed to speed better throughput and therefore better and 2013, there was a 106% increase in up the procurement and deployment use of the theoretical junction capacity to passenger miles despite the overall fleet of new rolling stock and boost capacity be planned without reduction in service growing by only 11%.xl in the short-term. A business as usual reliability. approach to procurement is insufficient. Assessing the costs of this measure is Trains that mostly benefit from DAS are dependent upon the timeframe in which likely to be inter-urban fast services and, additional rolling stock would be distributed especially, freight services which currently onto the network. Under the rail industry’s take the most time to traverse a junction, long-term plans — and present trajectory and therefore use most capacity, if brought — to improve rolling stock, the costs could to a near or complete halt. It is also these be evenly spread over the next 30 years. trains that, once delayed, are likely to reduce

24 Royal Academy of Engineering Congestion reduction measures

the practical capacity of subsequent pinch- enables trains to be run with only the safe Critical issues for implementation points on the network. stopping distance between them and so • Government should work with the rail improves capacity by allowing more trains to A significant secondary benefit of DAS, operational and rail supply industry be run in a given period. which has underpinned plans for its future to enhance plans for a first main line installation on major freight networks in CCC also allows more accurate real-time introduction of CCC to gain earlier the USA, is the consequent reduction in control of trains approaching junctions knowledge of barriers and strategies to energy use through reduction in start- and stations, combining to optimise the more wide-scale implementation. stop movement, along with reduced costs throughput of services. • Lessons should be learned from countries of operation and maintenance of, for CCC systems offer a transformative impact such as Japan and China where these example, train braking systems. The major to capacity. Although more conventional technologies are already more widely beneficiaries are freight and higher speed capacity enhancers such as additional trains deployed. inter-urban services. or new lines still offer considerable potential To get the required benefits from DAS in the regions, the lack of space in London 3.3 Reducing congestion in high traffic areas the more complex and the South East, where crowding is most CDAS (C for Connected) is perhaps needed acute, requires technological solutions that in the inter-urban and requiring the installation of monitoring and make better use of existing infrastructure. urban freight markets decision support systems on the wayside However, CCC systems are complicated and There are two main categories of communicating directly with the on- costly to install. The process incorporates intervention in freight transport that can board DAS equipment. There is still some a high complexity of conversion: different have an impact for a given uncertainty around the exact configurations operating principles for new technologies freight task. These are measures that result needed to support particular layouts and require that a whole network section of the in use of higher-capacity vehicles requiring service patterns. railway needs to be adapted, as well as all fewer journeys and measures that alter the the trains traversing it, before the system logistics system and so result in fewer and/ Critical issues for implementation will function. The required investment in or shorter journeys. Those interventions • Given the divergent professional new or retrofitted train fleet, alteration that simply reduce the number of heavy judgement within the rail sector on of layout and the reconfiguration of key vehicles or number of journeys have a the ease of delivery and subsequent junctions produce considerable whole-life relatively weak effect on overall traffic impact of DAS in congestion alleviation, costs. A consequence of achieving higher congestion. However, those interventions an early pilot scheme should be funded throughput would be the need to invest in in the freight system that alter car traffic, and implemented on a representative increased station capacity, both platform particularly at congested times, can have a congested section of the network. and overall passenger space. This would relatively strong effect. This latter category be most expensive at the locations where includes home delivery and ‘last mile’ capacity is most needed, such as in London solutions, urban consolidation centres and 3.2.3 Control, command and the South East where additional land is retiming of deliveries. and communication (CCC) at a premium. The promotion of higher-capacity vehicles systems Industry is focusing on potential enables more productive road freight vehicle Value for money : moderate intermediate steps for the roll-out of trips, helping operators to minimise their costs at the same time as reducing the total Costs : very expensive CCC in which some of its benefits, such as knowledge of train position, could be number of freight vehicles on the road — but Congestion reduction potential : good overlaid onto existing fixed-block systems may attract some traffic from the railways. without the need to replace all trains There are three main opportunities for operating in the area concerned. Control, command and communication (CCC) improved logistics systems to reduce traffic systems comprise a mix of technologies that Despite the considerable costs attached congestion: modifications to urban logistics facilitate intelligent traffic management of to the introduction of this measure, it does systems, through use of urban consolidation trains and replace lineside infrastructure with appear to represent the best intervention centres (UCC); optimisation of the backbone communications based train control. They in the rail industry for the long term. As distribution network; and retiming of have a range of applications but ultimately, network-wide deployment would take 15- deliveries (delivering out-of-hours). for the purpose of reducing congestion, 30 years, there is a need for intermediate enable trains to be placed closer together measures to supply much needed critical on the track and for network capacity to be capacity in the short term. therefore used more intensively. It is important to recognise that CCC systems CCC enables the position of vehicles to be are not being developed in isolation. continuously monitored and updated, rather Although they stand out as offering the than changes in position being reported only single-best potential for capacity on the rail intermittently upon their entry into a ‘fixed network, they form only one component in block’ section of the track; the enhanced a system of interrelated technologies on accuracy and removal of uncertainty that course to be installed on the rail network this provides on vehicles’ relative positioning over the next 30 years.

The transport congestion challenge 25 Urban solutions car. The solution is particularly applicable requiring a repeat delivery or additional to grocery shopping. As well as replacing consumer journey to retrieve goods shop 3.3.1 Home delivery and multiple private shopping trips with one from a depot. Improved IT solutions and ‘last mile’ solutions consolidated trip, a further benefit of this communication between the delivery service measure for traffic reduction is that home and the consumer are central to reducing Value for money : excellent delivery can be done out of normal failure rates of home deliveries. Local Costs : inexpensive working hours. collection-and-delivery points (CDPs), where consumers can collect their failed home Congestion reduction potential : very good A market-driven solution that is already in deliveries, are another potential solution. widespread operation, it requires no public subsidy and is cheap to implement; this The private car is the least efficient Critical issues for implementation results in a measure that provides excellent ‘freight vehicle’ in common use. It weighs value for money. • Supermarkets, logistics service providers approximately 1.5t, carries less than 50kg of and parcel delivery companies should freight on a typical shopping trip and uses There are significant barriers that limit collaborate more to build an integrated substantial road space. wider adoption of home delivery. These solution for home deliveries, enabling a are inadequacy of the Almost any lorry running even partially compelling user experience experience, the problem of delivery failures, loaded has a much higher ratio of payload to barriers to service consolidation resulting • Research and development should be unladen weight and so is significantly more from competition law, and the need to trained on finding new integrated home efficient than a private car. orchestrate a change in consumer behaviour delivery systems. The effectiveness of this measure rests on so that efficient last mile delivery becomes • The aspects of competition law that replacing private car trips to retail outlets integrated and more pervasive. may have an impact on integrated home with online shopping and home delivery Notably, the case for home delivery is delivery system should be investigated, solutions using freight vehicles that are weaker if the first-time delivery fails, clarified and, if necessary, updated. larger and more efficient than the family

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3.3.2 Retiming deliveries 3.3.3 Improved logistics Critical issues for implementation • Incentives should be explored to Value for money : very good systems: urban consolidation centres (UCCs) encourage use of UCCs, including Costs : inexpensive subsidies during their start-up phase. Congestion reduction potential : good Value for money : moderate • Other measures range from allowing Costs : expensive UCC vehicles to use bus , through to A significant reduction in traffic congestion Congestion reduction potential : good major restrictions such as the can be obtained by widespread ‘retiming’ of all non-UCC vehicles from the specified delivery area; each of these should help of deliveries and collections to less busy The key purpose of urban consolidation to improve the efficiency of the UCC in times of the day and, where appropriate, centres (UCCs) is to avoid partially loaded question, enhancing the business case for nights. This displaces freight traffic to goods vehicles from making deliveries in investment. outside the peak. This was done successfully urban areas and thereby to reduce the xliii in London during the 2012 Olympics . total volume of goods vehicle traffic. This Retiming of deliveries can take large lorries objective can be achieved by transhipping 3.3.4 Horizontal out of congested areas at the worst times and consolidating goods at the UCC onto which also leads to less risk of collisions vehicles with high load factors for final collaboration between with cyclists and , less fuel delivery in the . operators consumption and better air quality. However, it should also be noted that ‘convenience This effectively means that a smaller number This measure is applicable to urban stores’ and other ‘just-in-time’ operations of higher-capacity vehicles can perform the and inter-urban markets usually do not have large back-up storage. same freight task as many partially-loaded, Value for money : moderate Consequently, the timing of deliveries is smaller vehicles. often critical to the availability of products on Costs : inexpensive There are a number of types of UCCs, such businesses’ shelves, meaning out-of- Congestion reduction potential : limited although the greatest potential to reduce hours deliveries are not an option in all cases. traffic appears to be where there are Re-timing of deliveries is only likely to many business users. The involvement If a freight vehicle returns to base empty, it reduce by a small amount the total volume of the local authority can be useful and is does two journeys instead of one for a single of journeys into city centres; they are being usually justified on the basis of wanting to freight task. Under some traffic conditions, displaced mainly to other times of the day, reduce traffic and environmental costs. The this unnecessary additional journey can rather than eliminated from the system decision to make use of the UCC is typically a significantly add to congestion, as well as altogether. The more significant gain is voluntary one and there is no single private increasing fuel consumption by as much likely to arise from the removal of stationary body that is responsible for financing the as 70%. Any measure designed to reduce freight vehicles on busy roads during the UCC or enjoying its benefits. The financial empty running will reduce the number of peak: significantly enhancing traffic flows costs tend to be shared unequally between freight vehicles on the road. and reducing urban congestion. the parties, with the local authority often taking on a disproportionate role. For In the UK, empty running decreased steadily There are low costs attached to this reasons pertaining to finance, a substantial from the mid-1980s to a low of 25% in xliv measure, such as modifications to signage. number of UCC trials operating the multi- 2001. Since then it has increased again, The overall value for money is excellent — but user principle have been abandoned. for reasons that are not evident. there may be cost to retailers in having to An effective way to reduce empty running employ staff outside normal working hours. The measure offers good congestion reduction potential by reducing the number is ‘horizontal’ collaboration between freight The main barriers to adoption of retimed of small freight vehicles and vans entering operators. There are various possible deliveries are public antipathy to large shopping streets (by consolidating their versions of this, but they all amount to heavy vehicles in cities during the night and loads at an out-of-town location) and two or more operators combining (part of) incompatibility with restrictions currently by reducing traffic congestion caused by their vehicle fleets in order to improve the imposed by local government. Curfews delivery vehicles parked in city streets. efficiency of the combined freight operation would need to be lifted in order to allow out- and reduce overall fuel consumption. of-hours deliveries and recent One of the challenges of generating further Because of operational constraints, it is that enable much quieter operations should use of UCCs is making them financially difficult to find individual opportunities be promoted. sustainable. A major factor is the extent to which the various participants (carriers, for one operator to provide a back load for another. Horizontal collaboration requires Critical issues for implementation receivers and local authorities) are willing and able to meet the financial costs. This operational synergy between partners in • Time restrictions should be lifted on out- approach has been successful when linked terms of product characteristics, types of of-hours deliveries in city centres. to downtown restriction on large goods vehicles used and regions serviced. • Local authorities should devise ways to vehicles such as the low emission ‘Zone In order to generate substantial savings promote best practice from operators, Verte’ in Paris. through collaboration, it is necessary to such as quiet operations, in order to make synchronise overlapping freight flows retiming more acceptable.

The transport congestion challenge 27 of multiple independent shippers, as is 3.3.5 Higher-capacity urban Inter-urban solutions proposed by the CO3 project (an EU-funded delivery vehicles research project into collaboration in 3.3.6 Higher-capacity Value for money : moderate freight, entitled Collaboration Concepts vehicles: long-haul for Co-modality)xlv. Information technology Costs : expensive operations solutions are central to this so that Congestion reduction potential : moderate participants can share information about Value for money : limited daily flow volumes, plan loads, manage or Costs : expensive coordinate delivery time windows between Increasing the capacity of urban delivery partners, and manage transport. vehicles decreases the volume of journeys Congestion reduction potential : limited that need to be undertaken and should Urban consolidation centres, described in reduce traffic in cities and town centres. Section 3.3.3, are a special case of horizontal The use of higher-capacity vehicles for long- collaboration. Deliveries to convenience and department haul operations increases the productivity of stores tend to originate from regional individual journeys to reduce the volume of The ‘physical internet’ proposed by Montreuil distribution centres and involve ‘multi-drop’ vehicles needed on the road, removing some (2011)xlvi has been suggested as an extreme deliveries in which the vehicle delivers traffic but with the primary application of version of horizontal collaboration that a partial load to a number of stores in lowering fuel consumption. attempts to ‘transform the way physical succession. The types of vehicles performing objects are handled, moved, stored, realised, There are a variety of different approaches, this freight task are often restricted in supplied and used; aiming towards global from the use of longer semi-trailers length, height, parking and turning space in logistics efficiency and ’. It to introducing modular long vehicle city centres, meaning that relatively small, achieves this by applying concepts from combinations. rigid delivery vehicles are often used. internet data transfer to real-world logistics Throughout Europe, the European Modular processes. Use of short semi-trailers instead of rigid System (EMS)xlviii has become accepted lorries can substantially increase vehicle Implementation of the measure would as the norm for higher capacity long-haul capacity and reduce vehicle trips. Trailer reduce empty running of vehicles and, by vehicles. This system provides for a number capacity can be increased further by use of extension, the volume of vehicles on the of modular longer vehicle combinations, with double-deck urban vehicle configurations, as road. As a market-led solution to congestion, two or more articulation joints, generally up implemented by Boots, and trailer length can it would come at little cost to the taxpayer to 25.25m in length. The principal benefit be increased further through application of while case studies already demonstrate of EMS vehicles is their larger volume, trailer axle steering technologiesxlvii. the business case in which substantial cost rather than increased weight. Such vehicles savings (driver hours, fuel consumption) The main barriers to the implementation operate freely in Scandinavian countries justify investment by industry. of higher-capacity, reduced frequency and the Netherlands, with an ongoing trial urban delivery journeys are physical space currently underway in Germany. The barriers to it are willingness of operators requirements in loading bays and parking to collaborate, and lack of IT systems that In the UK, such vehicles are prohibited on space restrictions at convenience stores. coordinate collaboration activities. This the grounds that they would exceed the legal intervention would have a stronger effect on This is a supply-side measure that offers maximum length. Instead, the government is fuel consumption and emissions than traffic good congestion reduction potential. The currently conducting a 10-year trial on ‘longer congestion. costs of providing better unloading facilities semitrailers’, which are 2.05m longer than for operators in updating their fleets mean conventional 13.6m long semitrailers and xlix Critical issues for implementation that this measure offers only quite good have an additional 15% payload capacity. These vehicles operate trailer axle steering • Research and pilots are needed that trial value for money. systems to enhance manoeuvrability and the development, at scale, of working satisfy turning circle requirements. systems of multilateral collaboration. Critical issues for implementation Business models that explain how costs • Local authorities can assist freight Higher-capacity long haul vehicles are and benefits of cooperation are shared operators by providing adequate parking technically feasible now, with the main equitably between competitors should be for lorry unloading at convenience stores. barrier to their implementation being public explored as part of this. resistance to the notion of longer vehicles on UK roads. has introduced • The aspects of competition law that may programmes to monitor the use of hinder collaboration between operators designated routes by high-capacity vehicles. should be investigated, clarified and, if This has had the effect of reassuring the necessary, updated. public on their performance and impact, although full road trains are reported as being less popular than ‘double bottom’ (dump trucks with double trailers).

The costs attached to implementation of this measure include legislation and

28 Royal Academy of Engineering Congestion reduction measures

enforcement costs and the need for road freight intensity of the UK economy At scale, it is likely to be market-led, at additional parking infrastructure. The (measured by the ratio of road tonne-kms little cost to the taxpayer, but would take congestion reduction impact on trunk to GDP). between 10–20 years to implement in light routes is likely to be moderate, resulting in of the major coordinated modifications About 90% of goods imported to the UK a measure that offers some potential but is to logistics infrastructure that would arrive by l, with some 75% containerised. poor value for money. be needed across the country. At best, The UK’s two major handle therefore, the measure is likely to be able to Critical issues for implementation more than seven million ‘20 foot equivalent deliver only limited benefit before 2030. In • Legislation should be explored that allows units’ (a type of container) per annum. the longer-term, the business case would be made principally on the basis of substantial higher-capacity vehicles to use the UK’s Only 30% of this volume is transported reductions in fuel consumption for operators trunk road network. inland by rail (a comparatively less rather than congestion reduction. Yet, congesting mode) and often the final • Government should consider it would still cause much disruption and movement of that volume is conducted implementing an ‘Intelligent Access require a great deal of upfront investment. Program’ (IAP), such as is used in Australia, by road: so the vast majority of container li to monitor use of designated routes by movements occur by road. At an aggregate level, a limited amount of congestion is likely to be saved from the high-capacity vehicles. This would give Port centric logistics (PCL) is a measure that introduction of the measure; at a local level, politicians, road asset owners and the manages demand more effectively to reduce particularly in and around ports, the effect general public the confidence that these the overall number of freight trips that need might be greater. high-capacity vehicles are travelling on to be undertaken. PCL bases distribution the correct routes at the correct times, centres at ports, with container loading Critical issues for implementation with allowable loads and travelling below and unloading in the port environment. a set speed threshold. This minimises the inland movement • Government should work with industry to of by removing the need for assess the costs and benefits associated journeys from ports to regional distribution with moving to a ports-centric model for 3.3.7 Restructuring of centres and back again (otherwise known as the UK and identify the most effective logistics networks ‘empty running’). It therefore reduces tonne- applications of this approach. km moved (which also reduces energy costs This measure is applicable to urban and emissions) and the total number of road and inter-urban markets journeys being made. Value for money : limited A combination of widespread use of PCL Costs : very expensive (moving distribution centres (DCs) from Congestion reduction potential : limited the centre of the country to the ports) with coastal shipping used to transfer freight between DCs located at ports could There are various ways that logistics potentially reduce road freight movements networks can be restructured to reduce the significantly.

The transport congestion challenge 29 4. The potential contribution of a package of measures by sector

30 Royal Academy of Engineering The transport congestion challenge 31 4. The potential contribution of a package of measures by sector

Packaging technologies and measures clubs measures are less central to such a in the evening. The use of larger, more together can serve two purposes. Firstly, package. However, a road network in which efficient urban vehicles to deliver freight packaging can offer synergistic gains, the vehicles using it are ’connected’ would to city stores and businesses would reduce meaning that the effect of a number of enable the traffic which continued to use lorry traffic and the retiming of deliveries measures combined together is greater than the network under efficient pricing to do so would take these lorries off the road during the sum of their individual contributions. even more efficiently. Where efficient pricing business hours. The combined effect of This applies to the reduction of congestion encouraged marginal users to reconsider these measures would reduce both the but can also relate to other public policy their ownership of a car, car clubs could offer numbers of cars and lorries on the road goals, such as reduction of carbon emissions an efficient alternative. during peak hours. or improvements to safety. Secondly, Within the inter-urban road sector, the Between the road and rail sectors, the packaging measures can allow the barriers most effective measures are efficient principal arguments for packaging are to one measure to be compensated for by pricing, managed motorways and, to a to ensure that rail offers an effective another. lesser extent, the connected car. The main alternative to road use where the latter is The use in London of congestion charging benefits of packaging are between the first most congested. revenues to enhance the bus network two: managed motorways would increase Efficient road pricing would send signals provides a useful illustration of both of the capacity of the most critical parts of the to drivers to encourage them to seek such these principles. An improved bus network network; efficient pricing could then ensure alternatives; it can also provide the finance made the impact of congestion charging on that traffic is diverted from less efficient necessary to support many of the rail reducing congestion more effective, because roads to use these enhanced routes, while measures. it became easier for more car drivers to avoiding the increase in overall demand switch to bus use. The availability of an which might otherwise occur. At the same Between the passenger and freight sectors, enhanced bus network helped reduce the time, the revenues from efficient pricing the most important consideration is that major barrier of public antipathy towards could help meet the costs of the managed freight, on both road and rail, can benefit pricing. At the same time, the availability motorway programme. significantly from congestion relief in of charging revenue made it possible to passenger transport. Freight measures Within the rail sector, rolling stock reform overcome the financial barrier to enhancing should thus be designed to ensure that and the application of CCC and DAS the bus network. they capitalise on these benefits. To technologies are to some extent appropriate a lesser extent, recommended freight These principles apply to all four of the to different contexts. Rolling stock reform is measures such as home deliveries and sectors considered by the working group the most appropriate solution in provincial freight consolidation would help relieve road and, to a lesser extent, to packaging settings where there is still scope to congestion; these benefits should be taken between the sectors. increase capacity, while CCC and DAS are into account in planning efficient pricing and principally needed in London and on inter- Within the urban road sector, efficient road enhancements to public transport. city routes where train capacity has already pricing and reformed bus services would been maximised. Even so, there will be Across all the sectors, digital systems support one another much as they did some parts of the network where the two technologies can provide an integrative with congestion charging in London. The approaches to capacity enhancement can framework. Perhaps the most important implementation of bus rapid transit and reinforce one another. message is that the maximum benefits light rail would go further in reinforcing the will only be gained if the solutions for the congestion-relieving impacts of pricing, Home delivery takes private car trips off different sectors are planned together — since they would provide high-quality the road during business (or peak) hours between urban and , between alternatives to the car. The main barrier and replaces them with approximately road and rail and between passenger to them is finance, which can again be 1/20 or 1/15 of the number of delivery and freight. overcome using the revenues from efficient vans. Such delivery trips tend to operate in road pricing. The connected car and car residential areas during timed slots, often

32 Royal Academy of Engineering Acknowledgements

This paper was produced by Lead authors The authors of the paper would also like to thank Professor Richard Allsop OBE FREng, the following members of the Professor Andrew McNaughton FREng Roger Ford, Professor Stephen Glaister CBE Academy’s Transport Community Chair of the Academy’s Transport CoP and Professor Rod Smith FREng for their of Practice (CoP) at the request of Professor Tony May OBE FREng helpful comments during the preparation the Academy’s Engineering Policy Emeritus Professor of Transport of the paper. Committee. Given that the paper Engineering, University of Leeds covers a wide range of technologies Contributing Fellows and policy measures, it should be noted that those listed do not Professor David Anderson FREng Emeritus Professor, University of Warwick necessarily concur with all the points made in the paper. David Bayliss OBE FREng Trustee, RAC Foundation

Clive Burrows FREng Group Engineering Director, First Group Plc

Professor David Cebon FREng Professor of , University of Cambridge

Dr Chris Elliott MBE FREng Director, Pitchill Consulting Ltd

Rod Muttram FREng Director, Fourth Insight Ltd

Tony Roche FREng Independent Railway and Engineering and Management Consultant

Derek Turner CBE FREng Visiting Professor, University College London

The transport congestion challenge 33 Appendix 1. Other measures considered as part of the study

Though the chief focus of this paper is mainly conventional and some autonomous more road freight on to the rail network, on ‘frontrunners’ considered to offer the vehicles, will endure. This would severely which uses fewer, higher-capacity and greatest potential to reduce congestion limit results. Furthermore, there are major energy-efficient vehicles to deliver the before 2030, there were a range of other infrastructural challenges attached to same volume of freight, would generate an measures scrutinised in the evidence discharging platoons of autonomous overall reduction in congestion. The problem gathering stage. In this section the group vehicles from free-flowing traffic conditions with this strategy, however, is that the provides a brief summary of some of these (like motorways) on to the rest of the road parts of the rail network most suitable for measures and explains why they were not network: as vehicles slow down on the the take-up of freight are also those parts given frontrunner status. approach towards intersections, bottlenecks of the network under most pressure from would occur unless major road-widening passenger transport. Given the need for schemes were undertaken. The scale of the rail network to absorb more passenger Autonomous vehicles investment needed for this to happen at a traffic, not least because of the partial modal Autonomous vehicles have received much national level is likely to take longer than the shift which efficient pricing would stimulate, publicity recently, not least because of the next 15 years to implement. this puts this measure in direct conflict with government funding for formal trials in four other recommendations in the paper. UK citieslii. But the concept of autonomy Telecommuting One option would be to retime rail freight in a vehicle is not new and encompasses delivery to the night time, so that it a spectrum of technological functionality; In the same way as the internet has the competes less with peak-time passenger ‘low autonomy’ cars are already in wide potential to reduce the volume of physical traffic. Nevertheless, the scale of modal commercial circulation and the driver shopping trips (see Section 3.3.1iv, home shift towards rail freight that would be by automating a range of tasks inside the delivery solutions), so too can virtual needed to make a significant national vehicle while ‘high autonomy’ vehicles, where conferencing and remote working replace contribution to congestion reduction the car can drive its entire journey without some physical trips and would require substantial investment in any involvement, are predicted for therefore lower congestion in the peak. infrastructure. Because freight tends to mass deployment in the next 15–20 years. This is an argument which has much wider be moved by road for the last mile of its implications and goes to the heart of In so far as congestion reduction is journey anyway, a national network of new the debate on future mobility, informing concerned, the most promising application multi-modal termini would still need to be concepts such as ‘peak car’ which suggest of the technology is the way it enables built at railway stations in order to transfer that the motor car is offering diminishing the platooning or convoying of a group palettes on to lorries. Such a network value for consumers. On the one hand, there of synchronised vehicles: this reduces would take a significant amount of time to is evidence, not least from the 2012 Olympic the amount of space needed between build and probably run up against the same Games in London, that telecommuting can successive cars and permits a more intensive investment challenges as restructuring have an impact on peak-time commuting. use of the existing road capacity. This towards ports-centric logistics. Yet, on the other hand, it is also worth application is seen as particularly relevant pointing out that the introduction of smart to motorways and therefore an inter-urban technologies (smartphones, laptops and Increased mobility context. There may also be benefits in an tablets) could potentially encourage workers urban context but more evidence will be There is now considerable investment in to travel more: the opportunity cost of needed that the UK trials should provide. improvements for and , spending unproductive time travelling to particularly in London. This should be However, autonomous vehicles are not the office can now be used meaningfully for encouraged when planning any urban likely to substantively reduce congestion in work purposes. environment but it will only help to reduce the period before 2030. In order for major congestion if a significant shift away from benefits to be achieved on the motorway, Diverting freight to the private car use can be realised. and capacity to be used more intensively, large portions of the vehicle fleet would rail network need to be platooned. Yet, in the short term, Rail only accounts for about 9% of domestic it seems far more likely that a mixed fleet, of freight movements. In theory, moving

34 Royal Academy of Engineering Appendix 2. References and endnotes

i Mayor of London (2014), London Infrastructure Plan: Transport HM Treasury (2014), National Infrastructure Plan. https://www. supporting paper (see list of useful documents). https://www. gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/ london.gov.uk/what-we-do/business-and-economy/better- file/381884/2902895_NationalInfrastructurePlan2014_acc.pdf infrastructure/london-infrastructure-plan-2050 p. 4ff ii Department for Transport (2015), Road traffic forecasts 2015. xii Department for Transport (2014), National Policy Statement https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/ for National Networks. https://www.gov.uk/government/ attachment_data/file/411471/road-traffic-forecasts-2015.pdf publications/national-policy-statement-for-national-networks — p. 6 2.56 iii Department for Transport (2014), National Policy Statement for xiii Department for Transport (2014), National Policy Statement for National Networks. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ National Networks, p.28. https://www.gov.uk/government/ system/uploads/attachment_data/file/387222/npsnn-print.pdf uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/387222/npsnn- p. 17 print.pdf iv Inrix (2014), Key Findings: Urban Mobility Scorecard Annual Report. xiv Department for Transport (2014), Transport Statistics Great Britain. www.inrix.com/scorecard https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/ attachment_data/file/389592/tsgb-2014.pdf v CBI and KPMG (2014), Connect more: infrastructure survey 2013. http://www.cbi.org.uk/media/2360768/cbi_kpmg_ xv Department for Transport (2014), National Policy Statement for infrastructure_survey_16_sept.pdf National Networks. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ system/uploads/attachment_data/file/387222/npsnn-print.pdf vi Department for Transport and Highways Agency (2014), Road investment strategy: 2015 to 2020. https://www.gov.uk/ xvi Department of Transport (2015), Quarterly road traffic estimates, government/collections/road-investment-strategy Great Britain April – June 2015. https://www.gov.uk/government/ uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/452396/road- vii Network Rail, Delivering a better railway for a better Britain: traffic-estimates-quarter-2-2015.pdf our plans for 2014 to 2019. http://www.networkrail.co.uk/ publications/better-railway/ xvii ibid viii Royal Academy of Engineering (2005), Transport 2050: the xviii Department of Transport (2015), Road traffic forecasts 2015. route to sustainable wealth creation. http://www.raeng.org.uk/ https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/road-traffic- publications/reports/a-50-year-vision-for-uk-transport forecasts-2015 p. 5 xix Le Vine and Jones (December 2012), On the move: making sense of ix Grant-Muller and Laird (2007), The cost of congestion, Association car and train travel trends in Britain, Office for Rail Regulation and for European Transport, p.1. RAC Foundation, p. 73. http://www.racfoundation.org/assets/rac_ foundation/content/downloadables/on_the_move-le_vine_&_ Feasibility study of road pricing in the UK — full report, Department jones-dec2012.pdf for Transport, p. 13, (December 2006) The Eddington Transport Study, The Case for Action: Sir Rod Eddington’s Advice to xx Table TRA0302, Road statistics, Department for Transport. https:// Government, p. 6 www.gov.uk/government/collections/road-traffic-statistics

See also Research Annexes (Vol 3) to the Eddington study — xxi Department for Transport (2015), National : England (December 2006) Transport Demand to 2025 and the Economic 2014, p.11. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/ Case for Road Pricing and Investment , p. 118 uploads/attachment_data/file/457752/nts2014-01.pdf

CBI (1989) Routes to the Future. London: Confederation of xxii Department for Transport (2014), National Policy Statement for British Industry. National Networks, p.17. https://www.gov.uk/government/ uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/387222/npsnn- x ibid print.pdf xi HM Treasury (2013), Investing in Britain’s future, p.6ff.https:// xxiii Table TRA0104, Road traffic by vehicle type and road class 2014, www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_ Road statistics, Department for Transport (DfT). https://www.gov. data/file/209279/PU1524_IUK_new_template.pdf uk/government/statistical-data-sets/tra01-traffic-by-road-class- and-region-miles

The transport congestion challenge 35 xxiv Transport Statistics Great Britain, Department for Transport 2014 xxxix Integrated Transport: The Future of Light Rail and Modern Trams in p. 8. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/ Britain. http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200405/ attachment_data/file/389592/tsgb-2014.pdf cmselect/cmtran/378/378we39.htm xxv Table TRA0104, Road traffic by vehicle type and road class 2014, xl Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy for the Rail Industry Road statistics, Department for Transport (DfT). https://www.gov. Third Edition, February 2015. http://raildeliverygroup.com/files/ uk/government/statistical-data-sets/tra01-traffic-by-road-class- Publications/2015-03_long_term_passenger_rolling_stock_ and-region-miles strategy_3rd_ed.pdf p. 11 xxvi Department for Transport, Road Traffic Forecasts 2015. https:// xli Ibid www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_ xlii Commission Regulation (EU) No 1300/2014 of 18 November 2014 data/file/411471/road-traffic-forecasts-2015.pdf on the technical specifications for interoperability relating to xxvii Ibid accessibility of the Union’s rail system for persons with and persons with reduced mobility. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal- xxviii Table TRA0104, Road traffic by vehicle type and road class 2014, content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv:OJ.L_.2014.356.01.0110.01.ENG Road statistics, Department for Transport (DfT). https://www.gov. uk/government/statistical-data-sets/tra01-traffic-by-road-class- xliii London City Hall, London 2012 and the Transport Legacy p.2 ff. and-region-miles xliv Freight on Rail, analysis of previous increases in HGV sizes and xxix CURACAO (2009), Coordination of Urban Road User Charging efficiency of existing sized lorries- MTRU. Organisational Issues, funded by the European Commission 6th http://www.freightonrail.org.uk/ Framework Programme http://www.isis-it.net/curacao/ NoMegaTrucksAnalysisPreviousIncreasesHGVSizesEfficiency.htm Figure 1C xxx CURACAO (2009), Coordination of Urban Road User Charging Organisational Issues, funded by the European Commission 6th xlv CO3 Position Paper (2012), Challenges of co-modality in a Framework Programme http://www.isis-it.net/curacao/ collaborative environment, EU seventh framework programme. http://www.co3-project.eu/wo3/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/ xxxi IPPR (2014), Greasing the : getting our bus and rail markets CO3-D-2-3-Position-Paper-on-Co-modality_def.pdf on the move, p.4. http://www.ippr.org/files/publications/pdf/ greasing-the-wheels_Aug2014.pdf?noredirect=1 xlvi Montreuil, B. (2011), Towards a Physical Internet: meeting the global logistics sustainability grand challenge, Logistics Research, xxxii Department for Transport (2013), Building better bus services: 3 (2–3), 71–87. https://www.cirrelt.ca/DocumentsTravail/ multi-operator ticketing. https://www.gov.uk/government/ CIRRELT-2011-03.pdf uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/141874/multi- operator-ticketing-guidance.pdf xlvii Odhams, A. M. C., Roebuck, R.L, Lee, Y.J., Hunt, S.W. and Cebon, D. (2010), Factors influencing the energy consumption of road freight xxxiii Glotz-Richter, M., (2014), How a city government can support the transport, Proc IMechE Part C, J Mech Eng Sci 224(9): 1995-2010. car-sharing development — the eight treasures for the successful implementation of car-sharing, private communication from the xlviii Also known as Eurocombi, http://www.modularsystem.eu/ Senior Project Manager, Sustainable Mobility, Free Hanseatic City xlix Department for Transport and Driver & Vehicle Standards Agency of Bremen, Germany (2015), Policy paper, 2010 to 2015 government policy: freight. xxxiv A Car Club Strategy for London Growing car clubs to support https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/2010-to-2015- London’s transport future. https://tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/ government-policy-freight/2010-to-2015-government-policy- documents/tfl-car-club-strategy.pdf freight xxxv Highways Agency Managed Motorways Portfolio Foresighting see also Department for Transport (2010), Longer semi-trailer Project. http://assets.highways.gov.uk/specialist-information/ feasibility study and impact assessment: final summary report. knowledge-compendium/2009-11-knowledge-programme/ https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/ HA_Foresighting_Project_-_Global_approach_to_managed_ attachment_data/file/3820/report.pdf motorways_and_research_activities.pdf p. 5 l Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Science and xxxvi Highways England, Road projects, M62 Junctions 25 to 30: Smart Research Projects, Resilience of the food supply to port disruption – motorway. http://www.highways.gov.uk/roads/road-projects/ FO0108. http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Default.aspx?Menu=Menu&M m62-junctions-25-to-30/ odule=More&Location=None&Completed=0&ProjectID=17782 xxxvii Atkins and Cambridgeshire County Council, Cambridgeshire Guided li International Transport Forum (2015), Port investment and Busway: what the public think. container shipping markets. http://internationaltransportforum. org/2015/free-publications/02.pdf p. 28 xxxviii Department for Transport (2013), Rail Trends, Great Britain 2012/13. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/ lii Innovate UK, News story December 2014, Driverless cars: 4 cities get attachment_data/file/252807/rail-trends-factsheet-2012-13.pdf green light for everyday trials. https://www.gov.uk/government/ news/driverless-cars-4-cities-get-green-light-for-everyday-trials Department for Transport (2014), Rail Trends, Great Britain 2013/2014. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ system/uploads/attachment_data/file/363718/rail-trends- factsheet-2014.pdf

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