Canada Research Published by Raymond James Ltd. Centerra Gold Inc. May 16, 2018 | 5:16 am EDT CG-TSX Company Report - Initiation of Coverage Brian MacArthur CFA | 416.777.4914 |
[email protected] Chris Law (Associate) | 416.777.7144 |
[email protected] Market Perform 3 Mining | Precious Metals - Gold C$9.50 target price Initiating Coverage of Centerra Gold Current Price ( May-11-18 ) C$7.25 Total Return to Target 31% Recommendation 52-Week Range C$9.35 - C$5.90 Suitability High Risk/Growth We are initiating coverage of Centerra Gold Inc. (CG) with a Market Perform rating and a C$9.50/share target price. CG operates two cornerstone assets—Mt Milligan and Market Data Kumtor—which offer investors exposure to gold and copper while generating solid FCF. Market Capitalization (mln) C$2,153 Centerra also has a flexible balance sheet to support its robust project pipeline (Öksüt, Current Net Debt (mln) C$284 Kemess, Hardrock, Gatsuurt) led by Öksüt which could increase production by 25% in Enterprise Value (mil.) C$2,437 2020. CG also owns a royalty portfolio which provides FCF and three molybdenum assets Shares Outstanding (mln, f.d.) 297.0 10 Day Avg Daily Volume (000s) 844 which offer optionality on molybdenum prices. Either/both of these may be sold to Dividend/Yield C$0.00/0.0% surface value. Finally, CG trades at a discount to the intermediate peer group. However, with about 45% of its NAV in the Kyrgyz Republic, Turkey and Mongolia, CG has higher Key Financial Metrics jurisdictional risk and given the recent change in the Kyrgyz Republic government, we 2017A 2018E 2019E rate the shares Market Perform.