Industry Development Opportunities from developing Concentrating Solar Thermal Power in Australia
Authors: Giselle Rampersad and John Spoehr Research program for Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) Australian Industrial Transformation Institute April 27, 2018
Industry Development Opportunities from developing Concentrating Solar Thermal Power in Australia
Australian Industrial Transformation Institute College of Business, Government and Law Flinders University of South Australia 1284 South Road Tonsley South Australia 5042 www.flinders.edu.au/aiti
URL:http://www.flinders.edu.au/aiti/
CAT: AITI201801
Suggested citation:
Giselle Rampersad and John Spoehr. 2018. Industry Development Opportunities from developing Concentrating Solar Thermal Power in Australia. Adelaide: Australian Industrial Transformation Institute, Flinders University of South Australia.
The Australian Industrial Transformation Institute (AITI) has taken care to ensure the material presented in this report is accurate and correct. However, AITI does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability or responsibility connected to the use or interpretation of data or material contained in this report.
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...... 2 ABBREVIATIONS ...... 3 APPROACH ...... 4 1 AUSTRALIAN CAPABILITY AND CAPACITY TO ENGAGE IN THE CST INDUSTRY ...... 5
1.1 CST VALUE CHAIN MAPPING ...... 5 1.2 STATE BASED CAPABILITIES IN THE CST VALUE CHAIN ...... 6 1.3 HELIOSTAT INDUSTRY ...... 6 1.4 FABRICATION AND SUPPORT STRUCTURES INDUSTRY ...... 7 1.5 RECEIVER INDUSTRY ...... 8 1.6 CONTROL AND INTEGRATION INDUSTRY ...... 8 1.7 POWER BLOCK INDUSTRY ...... 9 1.8 PUMP AND BOILER INDUSTRY ...... 10 1.9 CIVIL WORKS INDUSTRY ...... 10 1.10 ENGINEERING PROCUREMENT AND CONSTRUCTION (EPC) INDUSTRY ...... 11 2 ENABLERS AND BARRIERS OF AUSTRALIAN BUSINESSES IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN ...... 12
2.1 LOCAL CONTENT AND INCENTIVES ...... 12 2.2 VISIBILITY AND COMMUNICATION ...... 13 2.3 RENEWABLE ENERGY HUBS: GRID CONNECTIVITY AND DEVELOPMENT APPROVALS ...... 13 2.4 COST REDUCTION ...... 13 2.5 CERTIFICATIONS AND SECONDMENT ...... 14 3 POTENTIAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM AUSTRALIAN CST DEPLOYMENT ...... 15
3.1 IDENTIFICATION OF SPILL-OVERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GROWTH OF THE CST INDUSTRY ...... 15 3.2 MODELLING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE CST INVESTMENT ...... 16 3.3 METHODOLOGY CONSIDERATIONS ...... 16 3.4 CORE ASSUMPTIONS ...... 16 3.5 MODELLING OF THE “BASE” CASE ...... 17 3.6 SUMMARY OF RESULTS – “BASE” CASE ...... 18 3.7 MODELLING OF THE “NO REGRETS” CASE ...... 20 3.8 SUMMARY OF RESULTS – “NO REGRETS” CASE ...... 20 4 COMMERCIALISATION OF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES: PATENT ANALYSIS ...... 23
4.1 HELIOSTATS ...... 24 4.2 HEAT TRANSFER FLUIDS ...... 25 4.3 SERVICE ELEVATORS FOR POWER TOWERS ...... 26 4.4 TURBINES ...... 27 4.5 BOILERS ...... 28 4.6 MIRROR COATINGS ...... 29 5 CST OPPORTUNITIES BY STATE ...... 30
5.1 SOUTH AUSTRALIA ...... 30 5.2 VICTORIA ...... 30 5.3 NEW SOUTH WALES ...... 31 5.4 QUEENSLAND ...... 31 5.5 WESTERN AUSTRALIA ...... 31 5.6 NORTHERN TERRITORY ...... 31 5.7 TASMANIA ...... 31 6 CONCLUSION ...... 32 REFERENCES ...... 34 APPENDIX A: AUSTRALIAN ORGANISATIONS WITH POTENTIAL TO ENGAGE IN THE CST SUPPLY CHAIN ...... 36 APPENDIX B: DETAILED ECONOMIC MODELLING RESULTS – “BASE” CASE ...... 39 APPENDIX C: DETAILED ECONOMIC MODELLING RESULTS – “NO REGRETS” CASE ...... 45
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List of Figures
FIGURE 1: CST VALUE CHAIN...... 5 FIGURE 2: INNOVATION NETWORK MAP OF POTENTIAL AUSTRALIAN PLAYERS IN THE CST VALUE CHAIN ...... 6 FIGURE 3: SUNDROP CST FARM, PORT AUGUSTA ...... 15 FIGURE 4: ESTIMATED ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF CST INVESTMENT – BASE CASE - CONTRIBUTION TO EMPLOYMENT - FTES ...... 19 FIGURE 5: ESTIMATED ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF CST INVESTMENT – NO REGRETS CASE - CONTRIBUTION TO EMPLOYMENT - FTES ...... 22 FIGURE 6: HELIOSTAT APPLICATIONS ACROSS AUSTRALIAN STATES ...... 24 FIGURE 7: TIMELINE SHOWING THE NUMBER OF HELIOSTAT IP APPLICATIONS IN AUSTRALIA ...... 24 FIGURE 8: TOP IP APPLICANT COUNTRIES FOR HELIOSTATS ...... 24 FIGURE 9: HTF IP APPLICATIONS ACROSS AUSTRALIAN STATES...... 25 FIGURE 10: TIMELINE SHOWING THE NUMBER OF HTF PATENT APPLICATIONS IN AUSTRALIA ...... 25 FIGURE 11: TOP IP APPLICANT COUNTRIES FOR HTF ...... 25 FIGURE 12: ELEVATOR IP APPLICATIONS ACROSS AUSTRALIAN STATES ...... 26 FIGURE 13: TIMELINE SHOWING THE NUMBER OF ELEVATOR IP APPLICATIONS IN AUSTRALIA ...... 26 FIGURE 14: TOP IP APPLICANT COUNTRIES FOR ELEVATORS ...... 26 FIGURE 15: STEAM TURBINE IP APPLICATIONS ACROSS AUSTRALIAN STATES ...... 27 FIGURE 16: TIMELINE SHOWING THE NUMBER OF STEAM TURBINE IP APPLICATIONS IN AUSTRALIA ...... 27 FIGURE 17: TOP IP APPLICANT COUNTRIES FOR STEAM TURBINES ...... 27 FIGURE 18: BOILER RELATED IP APPLICATIONS ACROSS AUSTRALIAN STATES ...... 28 FIGURE 19: TIMELINE SHOWING THE NUMBER OF POWER BOILER PATENT APPLICATIONS IN AUSTRALIA ...... 28 FIGURE 20: TOP IP APPLICANT COUNTRIES FOR POWER BOILERS ...... 28 FIGURE 21: MIRROR COATING IP APPLICATIONS ACROSS AUSTRALIAN STATES ...... 29 FIGURE 22: TIMELINE SHOWING THE NUMBER OF MIRROR COATING PATENT APPLICATIONS IN AUSTRALIA ...... 29 FIGURE 23: TOP IP APPLICANT COUNTRIES FOR MIRROR COATINGS ...... 29
List of Tables
TABLE 1: STATE-BASED CAPABILITIES IN THE HELIOSTAT INDUSTRY ...... 7 TABLE 2: STATE-BASED CAPABILITIES IN THE FABRICATION AND SUPPORT STRUCTURES INDUSTRY ...... 7 TABLE 3: STATE-BASED CAPABILITIES IN THE RECEIVER INDUSTRY ...... 8 TABLE 4: STATE-BASED CAPABILITIES IN THE CONTROL AND INTEGRATION INDUSTRY ...... 9 TABLE 5: STATE-BASED CAPABILITIES IN THE POWER BLOCK INDUSTRY ...... 9 TABLE 6: STATE-BASED CAPABILITIES IN THE PUMP AND BOILER INDUSTRIES ...... 10 TABLE 7: STATE-BASED CAPABILITIES IN THE CIVIL WORKS INDUSTRY ...... 10 TABLE 8: SUCCESSFUL INCENTIVES FOR DOMESTIC MANUFACTURING OF CSP COMPONENTS ...... 12 TABLE 9: SPILL-OVERS FROM CST GROWTH ...... 15 TABLE 10: ESTIMATED TOTAL CAPEX ON CST PROJECTS – BASE CASE - $ MILLION ...... 17 TABLE 11: ESTIMATED INVESTMENT EXPENDITURE LOCALLY SUPPLIED – BASE CASE - $ MILLION ...... 17 TABLE 12: ESTIMATED ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF CST INVESTMENT – BASE CASE - GSP - $M...... 18 TABLE 13: ESTIMATED ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF CST INVESTMENT – BASE CASE - EMPLOYMENT - FTES ..... 19 TABLE 14: ESTIMATED TOTAL CAPEX ON CST PROJECTS – NO REGRETS CASE - $ MILLION ...... 20 TABLE 15: ESTIMATED INVESTMENT EXPENDITURE LOCALLY SUPPLIED – NO REGRETS CASE - $ MILLION ...... 20 TABLE 16: ESTIMATED ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF CST INVESTMENT – NO REGRETS CASE - GSP - $M) ...... 21 TABLE 17: ESTIMATED ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF CST INVESTMENT – NO REGRETS CASE - EMPLOYMENT - FTES ...... 21 TABLE 18: TOP HELIOSTAT IP APPLICATIONS IN AUSTRALIA ...... 24 TABLE 19: TOP HTF APPLICATIONS IN AUSTRALIA ...... 25 TABLE 20: TOP ELEVATOR IP APPLICANTS IN AUSTRALIA ...... 26 TABLE 21: TOP STEAM RELATED TURBINE IP APPLICANTS IN AUSTRALIA ...... 27 TABLE 22: TOP STEAM RELATED BOILER PATENT APPLICATIONS IN AUSTRALIA ...... 28 TABLE 23: TOP MIRROR COATING IP APPLICATIONS IN AUSTRALIA ...... 29 TABLE 24: CST OPPORTUNITIES BY STATE ...... 30
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Executive Summary
Concentrated Solar Thermal (CST) power presents a new opportunity for Australia. This study focuses on the potential for Australian businesses to engage in the CST value chain in the provision of key components and services.
The CST value chain and Australian businesses The CST value chain comprises manufactured components such as solar collection systems (mirrors, heliostats, receivers, fabrication and support structures and control and integration systems), thermal conversion systems (pumps, boilers, storage, piping and valves) and the electrical conversion systems (power blocks, balance of plant and turbines). Additionally, the value chain involves R&D to reduce costs involved and to increase the safety, effectiveness and durability of components. Investment and financing form part of the value chain and also various service providers including developers; engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors; civil works businesses; and operation and maintenance (O&M) suppliers. While the industry is at an embryonic stage, a number of local organisations across Australia have capabilities to engage in the CST value chain, in particular around solar tower construction, integration systems, support structures, heliostats and services including EPC and civil works.
Spill-overs Spillovers occur from CST to other sectors including automotive, glass, metal, power and process heat, wires and cables, water, chemistry, electronic, cement and other renewables (Photovoltaic (PV) solar and wind). Regional development opportunities also arise from CST, particularly in areas with the presence of existing power network infrastructure, transport through rail and shipping facilities and transferable manufacturing capability. CST plants can result in a number of benefits around employment as it arguably involves the use of a higher proportion of local services compared to PV solar and wind, for instance via construction and assembly.
The Economic Model An economic impact model was developed for CST deployment by State under two scenarios: 1. Base” or “Business as Usual” Case: This assumes that CST will enter the market from 2031 if initiatives and policies in place today are maintained. Over the 10-year period 2031-2040, it involves capital expenditure (CAPEX) of $5.012B and local expenditure of $2.255B and results in a contribution to Gross State Product (GSP) of $823M (direct) and $1.6B (induced) and employment of 4,557full-time-equivalent (FTE) (direct) and 8,751FTE (induced) jobs.
2. “No Regrets” Case: In this case, CST investments are brought forward from as early as 2022 and there are higher expenditures in NSW, QLD, SA and VIC. Over the period 2022-2040, this scenario involves a CAPEX of $9.231B and local expenditure of $4.717B. It results in a GSP contribution of $1,721B (direct) and $3.512B (induced) and employment of 9,532 FTEs and 18,936 FTEs (induced). Deployment CAPEX Local Economic impact NSW QLD SA VIC Total Scenario ($B) Content ($B) Base Case 5.012 2.255 Contribution Direct 0 179 418 226 823 to GSP ($M) Induced 0 371 763 491 1,625 Employment Direct 0 992 2,314 1,251 4,557 (FTEs) Induced 0 2,012 4,097 2,642 8,751 No Regrets 9.231 4.717 Contribution Direct 243 653 510 315 1,721 Case GSP ($M) Induced 544 1352 931 685 3,512 Employment Direct 1,344 3616 2,826 1,746 9,532 (FTEs) Induced 2,914 7,333 5,002 3,687 18,936
While these estimates are conservative, it is clear that CST provides a considerable opportunity with a significant forecasted impact on the economy and employment.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
AITI would like to acknowledge the contributions and support from:
South Australia . Professor David Lewis, ASTRI researcher / Professor of Nanotechnology, Flinders University . Councillor Lisa Lumsden, Councillor, Port Augusta Council . Mark Wadewitz, Manager, Investment Attraction, Investment Attraction South Australia (Minerals & Energy), SA Government . Bettina Venner, Manager Industry Participation, Industry Capability Network (ICN), SA . Louise Foote, Communications and Government Relations Manager, Australia. Solar Reserve . Andrew Dickson, Business Development Manager, CWP Renewables . David Linder-Patton, CEO, HeliostatSA . Justin Kahl, General Manager – Central Western Region, Sage Automation . Ashley Manna, Network Relationship Manager, ElectraNet . Claire Weissman, CEO, Regional Development Australia
New South Wales . Craig Wood, CEO, Vast Solar . Klaus Baumgartel, Regional Manager Southern NSW, ICN . Steve Hollis, Director/CEO, Solastor
Victoria . Alan Atchinson, Chairman, AUSTELA/ Country Manager, Grupo Cobra . Benjamin White, Director, Renewable Energy Division, Department of Land, Water and Planning (DELWP). Victorian Government . Barbara Blake, Manager, Investment and Special Projects, Renewable Energy Division, DELWP. Victorian Government . David Oglesby, Manager, Strategy and Insight, Renewable Energy Division, DELWP Victorian Government . Peter Hansford, Business Development Manager, DELWP. Victorian Government
Queensland . Paget Hargreaves, Director, Industrial Energy Systems (Australia) Pty Ltd . Andrew Burnett, Director, Department of Energy and Water Supply, Queensland Government . Michael Swart, Executive Manager – Procurement and Supply Chain Services, Executive Director, ICN, QLD & Online Procurement Services
Western Australia . Charmaine Watkins, Project Coordinator, Grant Elevators
Australian Capital Territory . Professor John Hewson, Professor at Australian National University/ Chairman, Port Augusta Graphite Energy 200 Pty Ltd
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ABBREVIATIONS
ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics ANU Australian National University ARENA Australian Renewable Energy Agency ASC Australian Solar Corporation ASTRI Australian Solar Thermal Research Initiative AUD Australian Dollar AUSTELA Australian Solar Thermal Energy Association BoP Balance of Plant CAPEX Capital Expenditure CEC Clean Energy Council CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation CSP Concentrating Solar Power CST Concentrated Solar Thermal EPC Engineering, Procurement and Construction ESTELA European Solar Thermal Electricity Association EUR Euro GSP Gross State Product HTF Heat Transfer Fluid ICN Industry Capability Network IEA International Energy Association IP Intellectual Property LCOE Levelised Cost of Energy MW MegaWatt NSW New South Wales NT Northern Territory O&M Operations & Maintenance PPA Power Purchase Agreement PT Parabolic Trough PV Photovoltaic QLD Queensland RD&I Research, Development and Innovation RJIP Regional Jobs and Investment Packages SA South Australia SERREE South East Region of Renewable Energy Excellence TAS Tasmania UAE United Arab Emirates UniSA University of South Australia VIC Victoria WA Western Australia
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Approach
This report maps the CST value chain and explores the capability and capacity of Australian businesses to engage effectively. Following consultation with key stakeholders from business, government and research sectors, it provides examples of Australian organisations that can potentially engage in the CST supply chain (See Appendix A). It also discusses key enablers to develop the sector, most notably the creation of renewable energy hubs to expedite grid connectivity and development approvals as well as to foster regional development. It examines the economic impact on employment and Gross State Product for various States, under two scenarios. The first scenario is the “Base” or “Business as Usual” case, which forecasts the impact of CST deployment based on existing policies and initiatives. The second scenario is the “No Regrets” case, which projects the impact from earlier and higher levels of investment across States. It then conducts patent analysis to help validate the technological capability of Australian businesses to specialise their manufacturing efforts into CST. This analysis also assists in identifying opportunities for international partnerships in the commercialisation of Australian IP in each CST component category so that the next generation of technologies can be successfully integrated into future global plants, thereby increasing the market potential. The report discusses key opportunities for Australian businesses in the supply of integration systems, fabrication and support structures, heliostats and a range of services for Australian developers, EPC contractors, civil works businesses and O&M suppliers, by State.
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1 Australian capability and capacity to engage in the CST industry
1.1 CST Value Chain Mapping The CST value chain involves a wide range of components and services. Figure 1 illustrates the high-level, generic value chain for CST projects. Manufacturing components incorporate the solar collection system and the thermal and electrical conversion systems. The solar collection system includes mirrors such as heliostats, solar towers, and fabrication and support structures as well as control and integration systems. The thermal conversion system consists of pumps, boilers and storage, piping and valves. The electrical conversion system incorporates the power block and balance of plant, which includes all other components required to complete the solar system.
Figure 1: CST value chain.
Adapted from the Finnish Solar Cluster (2012, p. 16))
There are also various phases involved associated with design, development and operation of a CST plant. RD&I is essential in the design phase for a range of issues including reducing costs associated with the plant; increasing heat generated and therefore decreasing the related costs of energy output of the plant; improving the effectiveness of collection systems and the safety of heat transfer fluids; and developing coatings and materials of components which reduce the ongoing costs or maintenance and replacement of machinery in the plant. Investment and financing is also a key consideration in de-risking plants and there are a number of associated incentives and power buy back strategies that will be discussed further in Section 3. There are various service providers involved in project development and implementation. First, the developer is usually the lead firm or owner of the project. Second, developers then recruit EPC contractors who are responsible for the construction phase of the project and procuring components, service providers and skilled labour to implement the project. Third, EPC contractors procure services of civil works providers including engineering, tradespeople and project managers. In addition to construction, civil works may also include testing of soil and geotechnical testing. An important phase also pertains to linking CST with the built environment, for instance connection to the energy grid with energy utility companies or integration with industrial
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applications or the real estate sector. Finally, O&M is also an important phase, as components have to be maintained, replaced and monitored for safety and effectiveness.
1.2 State based capabilities in the CST Value Chain Within the Australian context, states have potential capabilities to engage in the CST value chain. Figure 2 provides a map of the innovation network including examples of potential Australian organisations in the CST value chain. These organisations are examples that arose from stakeholder engagement and do not preclude other businesses from engaging in the CST industry. Each component will be discussed further and states analysed for their potential CST capabilities in Section 1.3 to 1.10. Businesses are also itemised in Appendix A.
Figure 2: Innovation network map of examples of potential Australian players in the CST value chain
1.3 Heliostat Industry The Australian heliostat industry consists of businesses with current and potential capabilities to supply to the CST sector. Heliostats used in the CST industry are generally made of low-iron glass with a silver backing. While most of the glass used in heliostat manufacturing is currently imported, various states have been engaged in value-add associated with heliostat manufacturing, as outlined in Table 1.
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Table 1: State-based capabilities in the heliostat industry
State Capability
NSW NSW is home to CSIRO’s solar thermal research hub. CSIRO has commercialised its heliostat technology into China through partnership with Chinese company, Thermal Focus. It has also collaborated with Mitsubishi Hitashi Power Systems (MHPS) who is using CSIRO heliostat technology in a solar field in Japan. Additionally, it formed a relationship with the Cyprus Institute to install a solar field in Cyprus to generate electricity and power desalination plants (CSIRO, 2018). In addition to CSIRO, NSW CST developer, Solastor has advised that it is in partnership with NSW heliostat business, Heliosystems for the supply of heliostats.
SA SA provides examples of businesses involved in the heliostat industry. HeliostatSA through partnership with automotive manufacturer, Precision Components, has manufactured and supplied heliostats for a solar project in Yokohama, Japan (Spence, 2017). Other of its initiatives include Wi-fi controlled heliostats and automating the process for the assembly of heliostats. Additionally, RD&I with SMR Automotive has focused on plastic heliostats, with a solar park developed at the University of South Australia (Conventry et al., 2016, p.41; Spence, 2017). Flinders University also undertakes research into self-cleaning coatings for dust-free heliostats.
1.4 Fabrication and Support Structures Industry There are thousands of fabrication businesses throughout Australia. Due to the high level of customisation required for support structures in CSP plants, local fabrication firms may decrease the time to market and transportation costs associated with the supply of these components. Table 2 provides examples of fabrication capabilities in various states.
Table 2: State-based capabilities in the fabrication and support structures industry
State Capability
NSW Bluescope steel in NSW has supplied steel for CST business, HeliostatSA and also PV solar business, IXL Solar which has worked on a number of major solar projects. Additionally consultation with NSW stakeholders provided an example of a fabrication firm, Hutchins Bros Pty Ltd that specialises in structural steel fabrication and erection for large-scale projects.
QLD QLD has various fabricators that can engage in the CST supply chain. BendPro is an example of a QLD business that has prior experience in providing services to CST Developer, Vast Solar. It specialises in tube bending.
SA IXL Solar manufactures solar mounting frames, particularly for the PV solar sector. It has partnerships with a range of solar firms including PV business, Tindo Solar, and has worked on a number of major projects including the $450m Solar Flagship Project with the Federal Government in 2009 in NSW and QLD and other projects in SA’s Barossa and Riverland as well as in VIC. It therefore has the capacity to supply to major infrastructure projects. As previously mentioned, Precision Components is another example of a fabricator who has worked with HeliostatSA and Bluescope steel in manufacturing steel frames. Consultation with key SA stakeholders identified a number of additional businesses. Ottoway Fabrication, based in Whyalla, SA, manufactured the poles for the wind turbines used in Tesla’s Hornsdale wind farm in Jamestown, SA. They may have transferable capabilities to fabricate support structures and the solar tower needed for the anticipated CSP plant in Port Augusta, SA. Its close proximity coupled with the rail links between Whyalla and Port Augusta, may decrease transport costs and time to market. There are other businesses in the region that have capabilities, for instance, Gadeleta Steel Fabrication (with bases in Port Pirie and Whyalla) that provides steel fabrication for the energy sector including pipe, tank, furnace, structural and stainless steel fabrication. Another Whyalla based firm, Liberty OneSteel, previously Whyalla Steelworks has new ownership, GFG Alliance that is making a major cash injection into the facility and has transformation plans to significantly increase steel production. It should be able to supply
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steel needed for support structures in the proposed CST power station in Port Augusta.
VIC Consultation with key Victorian stakeholders provided examples of fabrication business including Thornton Engineering Australia, Ceramet and Hoffmann Engineering. Thornton Engineering specialises in the design and manufacture of heat exchangers and pressure vessels including carbon steel, stainless steels and exotic steels. Ceramet has capabilities in metal pressing and stamping. It acquired Ceramet Solar which specialises in solar metal pressing. Hoffmann Engineering has experience in wind turbine components and in energy power stations.
1.5 Receiver Industry The receiver industry includes solar tower firms. Examples exist of a few Australian firms with current capabilities to build solar towers, as outlined in Table 3.
Table 3: State-based capabilities in the receiver industry
State Capability
SA Sonnex manufactured the solar tower for a CST project for the University of South Australia in Edinburgh, South Australia. As previously mentioned, Ottoway Fabrication from Port Augusta could also build a solar tower given its capabilities in fabricating the poles for the Hornsdale wind farm.
TAS Haywards Pty Ltd specialises in steel fabrication and erection. It has experience in wind farm construction and tower fabrication. Since 2003, it has supplied towers for a number of wind farms in Tasmania, South Australia and Victoria.
VIC Keppel Prince has the capability to supply towers given its experience in other renewable sectors. Since 2001, it has been a major erector of wind towers for wind farms in Australia. It has also completed numerous PV solar projects in Portland and Shepparton (VIC) for companies, local government, education and medical organisations.
WA As a value-add to the manufacture of solar towers, elevators or lifts for larger solar towers may present an interesting opportunity, as some customisation may be necessary for the height of the tower. WA business, Grant Elevators designs, manufactures and installs elevators and service lifts. It created lifts for the mining sector and a research station in the Antarctic. It has several patents with IP Australia (See Section 4.3). While the CST sector may not require large quantities of lifts, they are also used in in other forms of renewable power initiatives such as wind farms (e.g. Hornsdale wind farm in Jamestown has a service lift in each of its 99 wind towers); other power stations, shipyards and ships; mining and oil and gas and therefore it provides an avenue to tap into existing and emerging industries including CST. There is an Australian Elevator Association and lifts need to meet the power industry standards (2018), ANSI A17.1 and EN-81.
1.6 Control and Integration Industry There are thousands of control and integration businesses in Australia. For instance, LogiCamms operates in various states throughout Australia (NSW, QLD, SA, VIC and WA). It provides a range of services including control systems to power and renewable energy projects including PV solar, wind and solar thermal. Table 4 provides a few other examples that have emerged through CST stakeholder consultation, but it should be noted that many others exist.
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Table 4: State-based capabilities in the control and integration industry
State Capability
NSW Crossmuller Pty Ltd is a controls and information systems company providing automation solutions. It has prior experience in the solar industry particularly as it relates to solar robotics, for instance in a project for a customer, an American based designer and manufacturer of solar steam generators.
SA Sage Automation developed and supplied the integration systems for the Sundrop CST application in Port Augusta.
VIC Emerson Process Management manufactures, supplies and supports industrial process control automation systems and instrumentation for industries including power generation and renewables. National Electrical focuses on automation and industrial control, motor control drives.
WA Automation Alliance Services Pty specialises in system integration for control and automation, variable speed drives, motor control and the communication networks that link them together. Another WA business, Pressure Dynamics specialises in control systems and hydraulic electro- mechanical services. It offers services to the renewable energy sector.
1.7 Power Block industry The power block can include turbines, generators and cooling systems. The majority of turbines used in Australia comes from overseas, from businesses such as Siemens, Mitsubishi and Toshiba. Nevertheless, consultation with CST plant developers has indicated that improving the efficiency of the turbine is critical to increasing the cost effectiveness of a CST plant. Unlike conventional turbines, CST turbines have to withstand frequent load variations, start-ups and shut-downs. Therefore, part load and transient operations are vital as well as short start-up times to decrease the down time of a plant (The World Bank, 2013). Future RD&I and international partnerships in this area will allow Australian organisations to contribute towards this industry domestically and internationally in countries such as India where imports of turbines exceed exports, with a long lead time of 16-24 months to obtain a turbine from when the order is placed due to limited supply (The World Bank, 2013). CSIRO has partnerships with Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems in setting up a CST farm in Yokohama Japan and therefore this relationship may be instrumental in exploring further opportunities. Table 5 provides discussion of power block capabilities in Australia.
Table 5: State-based capabilities in the power block industry
State Capability
QLD ASTRI researchers at the University of Queensland and Queensland University of Technology have been investigating supercritical CO2 systems and the power block as well as alternative power blocks respectively. QLD business, Mhps Plant Services Pty Ltd provides turbine and generator services.
VIC BHP Billiton Innovation engaged in RD&I and filed power generation/ turbine related patents (See IP Australia). For instance, its patent (WO2005031136) focused on the use of CO2 produced from a gas turbine to drive a steam turbine.
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1.8 Pump and Boiler Industry Similar to turbines, industry experts have also advised that the majority of high-tech pumps in Australia are also imported. However, a number of firms may have potential capabilities to supply to the CST sector. One example is Rheem Manufacturing Co (Australia) Proprietary Ltd which manufactures gas and electric storage, heat pump and solar water heaters including for large- scale project applications in Australia (operates in NSW, NT, QLD, SA, VIC and WA). Other examples can also be found in various states, as discussed in Table 6.
Table 6: State-based capabilities in the pump and boiler industries
State Capability
NSW Aussie Fluid Power is involved in pump and pipe system manufacturing.
QLD Australian Water Systems manufactures tanks and has an industrial technology arm. It filed a patent around water treatment apparatus by heating (See IP Australia).
SA Quantum Energy has capabilities in heat pump water heating.
VIC Consultation with key Victorian stakeholders identified a number of examples. Hunt Engineering provides tanks and boilers for power stations. Greenland Systems provides boilers and ultra-high heat solar thermal equipment for industrial use. Union Hydraulics PL has a focus on industrial pumps and hydraulic systems. Furphy’s Engineering manufactures stainless steel tanks and vessels.
WA Dynapumps manufactures pumps.
1.9 Civil works industry There are thousands of civil works providers throughout Australia and they are not project specific. This section identifies a few examples of Australian businesses that have arisen through CST stakeholder consultation. Several of them operate in various states throughout Australia. Broadspectrum (NSW, QLD, SA, VIC and WA) was involved in the construction of the Sundrop’s Port Augusta plant. It has construction expertise for power stations, substations and transmission lines. McMahons (NSW, NT, QLD, SA, VIC and WA) provides construction and environmental services. Intract (NSW, NT, QLD, SA, VIC and WA) provides services to the civil and construction sector. Table 7 provides other examples from various states.
Table 7: State-based capabilities in the civil works industry
State Capability
QLD Highways Pty Ltd specialises in solar farm installations. Mcilwain Civil is involved in civil construction.
SA Cowell Electric has capability in the construction of power lines and substations. LAB SA Pty Ltd is an accredited material testing facility providing aggregate, concrete and geotechnical testing services to the construction industry. SMS Geotechnical Pty Ltd provides expertise in construction materials testing industry. Max Cranes provides specialist lifting, equipment hire and transport services.
VIC DDC Constructions specialises in solar thermal plant construction.
WA Indigenous Project Services specialises in the design and construction of multidisciplinary infrastructure projects for the Commonwealth and industry including fuels and substations. Monford Group supplies teams of project managers, estimators, engineers and tradesmen for the provision of construction and civil works.
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1.10 Engineering Procurement and Construction (EPC) Industry There are several international and local EPC contractors operating in multiple states throughout Australia. John Holland (NSW, QLD, SA, VIC and WA) served as the EPC contractor for the Sundrop Port Augusta plant. Downer Group (NSW, QLD, SA and WA) is an EPC contractor for power and renewable projects. Similarly, RCR Tomilson (NSW, SA and WA) is an EPC contractor for power generation plants including renewable projects such as solar farms and it has a boiler section. UGL Pty Limited (NSW, QLD, SA, VIC and WA) provides power generation, transmission and distribution solutions and has prior experience in solar and hydro projects. Lendlease (ACT, QLD, SA, VIC and WA) is a major EPC contractor and has prior experience in industrial projects e.g. Mount Piper & Wallerawang Power Station, Loy Y and A Boiler Outage Program and Bayswater Power Station. There are also state based EPC contractors such as GPA Engineering in SA that is involved in the construction of power lines and substations; and Monadelphous in WA that provides construction services to the energy sector.
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2 Enablers and barriers of Australian businesses in the supply chain
2.1 Local content and incentives Setting local content requirements should be a cooperative, ongoing process including developers, manufacturers and LOCAL CONTENT government. Some industry insiders argue that local content is a REQUIREMENTS benefit of CSP as such plants require higher levels of construction, assembly and O&M services compared to PV “Recognising CSP’s potential solar and wind farms. This local content rate is typically around for local manufacturing, 40-45% and is associated with the provision of local services. engineering and skills For countries and governments seeking to develop a development, many countries – including Morocco, manufacturing base for CST components, local content Saudi Arabia, South Africa and requirements have been set at higher levels. For CST market the United Arab Emirates leader, Spain, around 75 – 80% of CSP components come from continued to promote or national manufacturing, with subsidies enabling the enforce local content requirements in development of domestic manufacturing capabilities (The World their CSP programmes during Bank, 2013). Table 8 illustrates the successful application of 2015” (Renewables Global incentives to boost domestic manufacturing in Spain, the United Status Report, 2017, p. 69) States and Germany. Additionally, in emerging CSP markets “India's Jawaharlal Nehru such as Saudi Arabia, Morrocco, UAE and South Africa, local National Solar Mission content requirements are enforced (Renewables Global Status (JNNSM) includes measures for Report, 2017). For India, a World Bank (2013) report rapidly expanding the use of photovoltaic and solar recommended the local share in manufacturing in the range of thermal systems, in order to 76% (pessimistic scenario), 83% (moderate scenario) to 90% drive down costs and (optimistic scenario). In Australia, the South Australia encourage domestic solar government has set a 60% local content requirement for the manufacturing.” (The World Bank, 2013, p. 2) proposed Aurora CST plant. The Victorian Government has also placed a 64% local content requirement on renewable projects. Setting local content levels is an important negotiation so that agreed levels are workable and sustainable for key stakeholders, employment and industry growth.
Table 8: Successful incentives for domestic manufacturing of CSP components in Spain, United States and Germany Plant Rioglass Rioglass Rioglass Schott Total Solar 1 Solar 2 Solar Inc (Local IP) Component PT mirrors PT receiver tubes
Country Spain Spain USA Spain Germany
Investment EUR 23 EUR 11 USD100 EUR 40 EUR 15 M M M M M Subsidies Regional Regional Local Reg. & NA funds funds subsidies nat. EUR 8 M EUR 2.2 funds M EUR 9 M Job 120 200 109 109 creation Production 1.3 M mirrors/ yr NA 100,000 NA units/ yr
Source: The World Bank (2013)
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2.2 Visibility and communication VISIBILITY AND Consultation with industry revealed an interest in industrial heat applications that will create a steady COMMUNICATION pipeline of projects to build capacity in the industry. Some CST suppliers and developers indicated that “There is a huge market in industry that government can help to create an integrated does not know that the CST technology communication strategy to increase the visibility of exists and what it can do for them. We CST and its benefits to industry for industrial created a CST field in Northern Adelaide applications for heat generation and locking in a stable that people could see. energy price. This communication can target industry associations including those involved in oil and gas, Government can help in creating an mining, farming and dairy. It can involve public media, integrated communication strategy to increase visibility of CST and its benefits political advocacy and publication of results from initial to industry for industrial applications for projects. heat generation and locking in a stable energy price. 2.3 Renewable energy hubs: Grid connectivity and development approvals David Linder-Patton, CEO, Heliostat SA. Consultation with developers revealed that the grid connection approval process needs to be expedited, indicating that it can take over a year to obtain approval. On the other hand, some indicate that this is quicker than the 2-year average time to connect coal power plants. With changing technology, such as PV solar and batteries, expectations are changing towards shorter connection lead times. While connection to the grid is controlled by independent companies, the Australian Energy Regulator, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and Council of Australian Governments (COAG) could have a role in facilitating a solution. Additionally, there were calls to expedite development approval and awareness of CST within Local Government Councils. Examples were given of land approval delays due to questions around potential hazards given glare and the death of birds. Awareness would assist Councils in undertaking required environmental evaluations including the loss of animal habitat, water use, visual impact and effects on endangered species (IEA, 2010). Industry stakeholders expressed the need for renewable energy hubs or solar parks, citing Morocco as a useful case study of successful implementation. Morocco has designated five major sites to boost CST and PV solar projects with a view to increase solar energy generation by 14% and add capacity of 2,000MW by 2020 (Government of Morocco, 2018). In these hubs, there is a streamlined and decisive process for grid connectivity and development approvals. Companies can bid for space and access suitable financing and incentives.
2.4 Cost reduction Developers suggested that it would be helpful for government to facilitate cost reduction studies, particularly involving Australian component suppliers. Related to this, there is likely to be considerable benefit from the CST industry being an early adopter of the Industry 4.0 agenda (TMI, 2018) which can help to deliver significant improvements in productivity and performance within the sector. Industry 4.0 involves the use of various digital technologies to streamline the manufacturing process including sophisticated sensors; advanced robotics; artificial intelligence; the Internet of Things; data capture and analytics; and digital fabrication. It can improve the efficiency of the overall CST plant and the manufacturing of various components.
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Government could facilitate the provision of a ‘Design for Manufacture’ review of Australian developed technologies to further increase the rate of cost reduction.
2.5 Certifications and secondment Industry consultation uncovered shortfalls in required certification of tradespeople needed for major projects. Costs associated with obtaining required specialised certifications was deemed a barrier for engaging particular groups such as electricians. Up-skilling support may have to be offered to CST job-seekers in target regions. Consultation with industry also revealed competition, scarcity and lack of affordability for certain skilled workers in regional areas, particularly when competing for these workers with high-paying industries such as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). There were calls for experienced pressure welders, and workers with skills in power stations operations, turbines, specialised fabrication, mechanical and structural design to improve heliostats, thermal expertise and effective project management. Secondment programs for technical and engineering workers from competing industries or with leading international CST firms may help generate knowledge transfer, training and capacity building for new CST players. For contributing firms, the Australian CST segment may provide an opportunity for market or product diversification and therefore, participation in the program may be mutually beneficial.
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3 Potential Economic Benefits from Australian CST Deployment
3.1 Identification of spill-overs associated with the growth of the CST industry Spill-overs associated with the growth of the CST industry can occur for various existing industries as shown REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT CASE STUDY in Table 9. They can also be location specific due to the presence of “The mid-North and iron triangle regions of South Australia have the existing power transmission network ingredients to be a renewable energy hub. They are home to major completed and upcoming renewable projects, including the Sundrop infrastructure, transport through rail CST farm and the proposed CST power plant in Port Augusta, the and shipping facilities and Tesla ‘big battery’ Hornsdale wind farm in Jamestown and the transferable manufacturing capability upcoming renewable projects through the partnership between GFG as highlighted in the regional Alliance and Zen Energy across the iron triangle. It has various enabling conditions. First, given the prior power station, there are development case study. existing network infrastructure and cables. Second, there are opportunities for reverse brain drain as it was a thermal coal power Table 9: Spill-overs from CST growth station and highly skilled people who once worked in the region will like to return. Third, there are opportunities to increase up-skilling Existing CST Component programs with the presence of various universities in Port Augusta industry and Whyalla. Fourth, there might also be opportunities to reclaim our Glass Mirrors shipping history, as I believe the now closed power station site is Metal Support structures for suitable for port development. Fifth, it has raw materials for mirrors and solar tower manufacturing such as steel that can be used in the fabrication and Power and Power block, balance of support structures in CST. Whyalla’s Ottoway Fabrication process heat plant, heat exchangers, manufactured the posts for the wind turbines at Hornsdale. Sixth, it receivers, turbines, has an operational rail system. Port Augusta used to be the boilers Commonwealth Railways Headquarters and we would manufacture Wires and Power cables and repair carriages for the railways right up until the 90s. Five major cables rail operators are still here - EDI Rail, Downer Rail, Pacific National, Water Pumps, pipes, valves Bowmans Rail and ARTC. The buildings, some equipment and some of Chemistry Heat transfer fluid, the skills are still here so it makes sense to see the manufacturing storage fluid, coatings facilities reinvigorated and repurposed from rail manufacturing to Electronic Integration and control renewable manufacturing. Components can also be easily transported system anywhere in Australia using the rail network that connects the nation Cement Solar tower, foundations in all directions from here. Therefore, the mix of renewable projects, Lifts Service lifts for large network infrastructure, rail, shipping, training, raw materials, towers manufacturing capabilities that can be re-activated by way of skills Other Support frames and and facilities provides ideal conditions to transition into a renewable renewable fabrication, and mirrors energy hub.” (PV solar and Councillor Lisa Lumsden, Port Augusta Council wind)
Figure 3: Sundrop CST farm, Port Augusta
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3.2 Modelling the Economic Impact of the CST Investment This section presents an evaluation of the economic impact of the investment expenditure expected in the planned developed of CST. It is based on input values from network modelling contractor, Energeia, that have modelled CST deployment under various scenarios. The economic modelling is provided for two cases in this report. The first is a “base” or “business as usual” case with “normal” expectations and activity based on policies and initiatives in place. The second “No Regrets” case is a more aggressive scenario with a higher level of investment across all states and expenditures that are brought forward.
3.3 Methodology considerations An Input Output (IO) model has been used as the base economic model in this study. Such models are a very prominent process for translating directly created expenditure (a final demand stimulus) of industries or projects into jobs and incomes, and for establishing the extent of the flow-on impact. An IO model is a whole of economy model that estimates all the linkages in an economy. Therefore, for new expenditures (those created by an event), it measures the value added and jobs in the activity itself (the initial or direct effect) and the flow through or multiplier effects. It has two major inter-related assumptions in this context – that the impact by industry is based on the average production function for that industry (in economics terms, constant returns to scale) and that the economy is unconstrained – it can expand proportionally to the new activity.
An alternative approach would be to use a Computable General Equilibrium (GCE) model – which is a more sophisticated model that builds in constraints – the aggregate or macro level and at the industry level. Thus, in general it allows that in the short run, the expansion of activity puts demand on resources and pushes prices up which crowds out some of the impact. However, CGE models include additional relationships that reduce the impact of those constraints (e.g. investment will respond to the increased activity and profits, and as such the economy will expand from that) – meaning that in the long run, and especially at the regional or state level, the results of CGE model are very similar to those of an IO model.
In short, the use of these input-output based multipliers allow a reporting with respect to the estimated outcomes of the activities in terms of the effect of expenditure or turnover on value added across a regional economy and in terms of job creation – which is consistent with national accounting frameworks.
3.4 Core Assumptions To undertake the modelling, an indicative input output table for each of the states in Table 10 has been created. This has been developed using the location quotient method, which uses the national input output table produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (the latest table is for 2014/15) and uses state employment data for each state (taken from the Labour Force Survey for 2014/15) to mathematically derive an input output table for each state) – which is then updated using inflation outcomes and estimates of labour productivity to provide indicative tables for 2017/18.
Of the locally supplied inputs from the capital expenditure, it is assumed that it mainly provided by firms in the construction sector (40%), and manufactured product (20%), while also drawing demand from services including property services (10%), professional, scientific and technical services (10%), transport (10%) and financial services (10%). It is noted that the overall magnitude of results is not affected materially by variations in these allocations.
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3.5 Modelling of the “Base” Case In the “base” case scenario, CST is expected to enter the market in 2031, based on existing policies and initiatives. Table 10 provides the estimated capital expenditure (CAPEX) of $5.012B and local expenditure of $2.255B over the 10 year period (2031-2040): 50% of the spend for South Australia, Queensland and Victoria.
Table 10: Estimated total Capex on CST projects – Base case - $ million Capex ($M) 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total NSW $0
QLD $246 $231 $217 $204 $192 $1,091
SA $334 $314 $288 $267 $261 $246 $225 $215 $204 $192 $2,545 TAS $0
VIC $266 $250 $235 $221 $208 $196 $1,376 Total $334 $314 $288 $267 $527 $742 $691 $653 $617 $580 $5,012
Table 11 provides an estimate of the expenditure that will occur locally within each state, and is forecasted at 45% in 2031 and gradually increasing to 60% by 2040.
Table 11: Estimated investment expenditure locally supplied – Base Case - $ million Local Spend 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Local Content 45.0% 46.7% 48.3% 50.0% 51.7% 53.3% 55.0% 56.7% 58.3% 60.0% NSW $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 QLD $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $111 $104 $98 $92 $86 $491 SA $150 $141 $129 $120 $118 $111 $101 $97 $92 $86 $1,145 TAS $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 VIC $0 $0 $0 $0 $120 $113 $106 $100 $94 $88 $619 Total $150 $141 $129 $120 $237 $334 $311 $294 $277 $261 $2,255
An economic impact evaluation looks at the broad level impact of this investment expenditure. The spend links into the local economy, purchasing inputs and services. These flow through effects mean that the overall contribution of the activity goes beyond the direct activity and employment itself.
This next section of the report provides a broad level estimate of the total impact on the various state economies, by modelling the flow-on impacts based on indicative assumptions.
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3.6 Summary of Results – Base Case
Tables 12 and 13 indicate the results of the modelling. Using the sector allocations as described above, and tracing these AUSTRALIAN JOBS through the relevant state input output table provides estimates of: • Impact in terms of the contribution to Gross State “The CST sector has enormous job and training opportunities Product. This is measured as the value added for Australians in areas of associated with the project – or its returns to capital manufacturing, fabrication, (gross operating surplus and returns to labour – gross specialised control systems, wages and salaries. The direct impact is the value- installation, servicing, added component of the companies and business operations and maintenance. working on the project. The induced is the flow through Essentially an entirely new effect of this activity.) industry can be established”. • Impact in terms of jobs contribution (measure as full time equivalent jobs) Paget Hargreaves, Sundrop CST farm Developer/ Director, Industrial Energy Systems In short, the projected investment is responsible for contributing (Australia) Pty Ltd. in the order of $550m for Queensland, $1,181m for South Australia and $717m for Victoria (See Table 12). This is a conservative estimate in that it treats every state as a separate economic unit, not allowing for feedback effects between state and also includes some adjustment for supply side constraints, while not including macroeconomic linkages such as second round investment (e.g. by supplying companies). Table 13 presents the contribution to employment in terms of FTEs and also provides an indication of the total person years in full-time employment through the 10-year period in the final column. The detailed modelling outcomes are included in Appendix B – showing the impact by industry sector. Figure 4 illustrates graphically the modelled outcomes on employment in each state.
Table 12: Estimated economic contribution of CST investment – Base Case - Contribution to Gross State Product - $m 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total NSW Direct $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Induced $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Total $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Queensland Direct $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $40.4 $38.0 $35.7 $33.6 $31.6 $179.1 Induced $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $83.6 $78.6 $73.9 $69.5 $65.3 $370.8 Total $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $123.9 $116.5 $109.6 $103.0 $96.9 $549.9 Sth Aust Direct $54.9 $51.6 $47.2 $43.8 $42.9 $40.3 $36.9 $35.2 $33.5 $31.5 $418.0 Induced $100.1 $94.1 $86.2 $79.9 $78.3 $73.6 $67.4 $64.3 $61.2 $57.5 $762.6 Total $155.0 $145.7 $133.4 $123.7 $121.2 $113.9 $104.3 $99.5 $94.7 $89.1 $1,180.6 Tasmania Direct $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Induced $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Total $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Victoria Direct $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $43.7 $41.1 $38.6 $36.3 $34.2 $32.1 $226.0 Induced $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $95.0 $89.3 $84.0 $79.0 $74.3 $69.8 $491.3 Total $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $138.6 $130.4 $122.6 $115.3 $108.4 $101.9 $717.2 National Total $155.0 $145.7 $133.4 $123.7 $259.8 $368.2 $343.5 $324.4 $306.2 $287.9 $2,447.8
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Table 13: Estimated economic contribution of CST investment – Base Case - Contribution to Employment – FTEs Person 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 years NSW Direct 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Induced 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Queensland Direct 0 0 0 0 0 224 210 198 186 175 992 Induced 0 0 0 0 0 453 426 401 377 354 2,012 Total 0 0 0 0 0 677 636 598 563 529 3,004 Sth Aust Direct 304 286 262 242 238 223 205 195 186 175 2,314 Induced 538 506 463 429 420 395 362 345 329 309 4,097 Total 842 791 725 672 658 619 567 541 514 484 6,411 Tasmania Direct 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Induced 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Victoria Direct 0 0 0 0 242 227 214 201 189 178 1,251 Induced 0 0 0 0 511 480 452 425 399 376 2,642 Total 0 0 0 0 753 708 666 626 588 553 3,894 National Total 842 791 725 672 1,411 2,003 1,869 1,765 1,666 1,566 13,308
Figure 4: Estimated economic contribution of CST investment – Base Case - Contribution to Employment - FTEs
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3.7 Modelling of the “No Regrets” Case The “No Regrets” case involves a higher level of expenditure in the States of QLD, SA and VIC and also the introduction of CST in NSW. Additionally, expenditures are brought forward with the implementation of smaller systems from as early as 2022. Table 14 provides the estimated capital expenditure over the years 2022-2040 – with the total expenditure estimated at $9.231 billion with $4.717billion to be spent on local content. 38% of the spend is planned for QLD, 30% for SA, 14% for NSW and 18% for VIC.
Table 14: Estimated total Capex on CST projects – No Regrets case - $ million Capex ($M) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total NSW $0 $0 $0 $22 $272 $117 $19 $18 $44 $142 $96 $54 $203 $13 $74 $12 $49 $104 $120 $1,357 QLD $93 $8 $44 $256 $112 $106 $98 $161 $131 $168 $391 $165 $203 $52 $425 $283 $261 $368 $239 $3,565 SA $0 $0 $0 $11 $11 $10 $10 $9 $9 $364 $322 $295 $273 $268 $264 $245 $220 $209 $197 $2,717 TAS $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 VIC $0 $0 $0 $11 $11 $10 $101 $9 $9 $8 $8 $7 $7 $273 $256 $241 $227 $213 $200 $1,592 $93 $8 $44 $301 $406 $244 $228 $197 $193 $682 $817 $522 $686 $606 $1,019 $781 $757 $895 $756 $9,231 Total
Table 15: Estimated investment expenditure locally supplied – No Regrets case - $ million Local Spend ($M) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Local Content 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 42.0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% 45.0% 45.0% 46.7% 48.3% 50.0% 51.7% 53.3% 55.0% 56.7% 58.3% 60.0% NSW $0 $0 $0 $9 $120 $52 $8 $8 $20 $64 $45 $26 $101 $7 $39 $7 $28 $61 $72 $665 QLD $37 $3 $17 $108 $49 $47 $43 $71 $59 $76 $183 $80 $101 $27 $227 $156 $148 $215 $143 $1,789 SA $0 $0 $0 $5 $5 $5 $4 $4 $4 $164 $150 $143 $137 $138 $141 $135 $125 $122 $118 $1,398 TAS $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 VIC $0 $0 $0 $5 $5 $4 $44 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $141 $137 $133 $128 $124 $120 $864 Total $37 $3 $17 $126 $179 $107 $100 $87 $87 $307 $381 $252 $343 $313 $543 $430 $429 $522 $453 $4,717
An economic impact evaluation looks at the broad level impact of this investment expenditure. The spend links into the local economy, purchasing inputs and services. These flow through effects mean that the overall contribution of the activity goes beyond the direct activity and employment itself.
3.8 Summary of Results – “No Regrets” Case Tables 16 and 17 indicate the results of the modelling. In summary, it is anticipated that there will be a contribution to GSP of $786M for NSW, $2,004M for QLD, $1,441M for SA and $1,001M for VIC. Additionally, there is a projected contribution of 1,344 (direct) and 2,914 (induced) jobs in NSW, 3,616 (direct) and 7,333 (induced) jobs in QLD, 2,826 (direct) and 5,002 (induced jobs) in SA, and 1,746 (direct) and 3,687 (induced) jobs in VIC (in terms of person years in full-time employment).
Figure 5 illustrates graphically the modelled outcomes on employment in each state.
The detailed modelling outcomes for this scenario are included in Appendix C – showing the impact by industry sector.
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Table 16: Estimated economic contribution of CST investment – No Regrets Case - Contribution to Gross State Product - $m) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total NSW Direct $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $3.4 $43.7 $18.8 $3.0 $2.9 $7.2 $23.3 $16.3 $9.5 $37.0 $2.5 $14.4 $2.4 $10.1 $22.2 $26.3 $242.8 Induced $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $7.5 $97.9 $42.1 $6.7 $6.4 $16.1 $52.1 $36.4 $21.3 $82.8 $5.5 $32.2 $5.3 $22.6 $49.6 $58.8 $543.5 Total $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $10.9 $141.7 $61.0 $9.8 $9.3 $23.4 $75.3 $52.7 $30.7 $119.8 $8.0 $46.6 $7.7 $32.7 $71.8 $85.0 $786.3 Queensland Direct $13.5 $1.1 $6.4 $39.3 $18.0 $17.1 $15.8 $25.8 $21.6 $27.6 $66.7 $29.2 $37.0 $9.8 $82.7 $56.8 $54.0 $78.4 $52.2 $653.0 Induced $28.0 $2.3 $13.2 $81.3 $37.3 $35.4 $32.6 $53.5 $44.7 $57.1 $138.0 $60.4 $76.6 $20.3 $171.2 $117.6 $111.7 $162.2 $108.1 $1,351.7 Total $41.6 $3.4 $19.6 $120.6 $55.3 $52.5 $48.4 $79.3 $66.3 $84.7 $204.6 $89.6 $113.7 $30.1 $253.9 $174.5 $165.7 $240.6 $160.3 $2,004.7 Sth Aust Direct $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $1.8 $1.7 $1.7 $1.6 $1.5 $1.5 $59.8 $54.8 $52.0 $49.9 $50.5 $51.3 $49.2 $45.5 $44.6 $43.1 $510.3 Induced $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $3.2 $3.2 $3.0 $2.9 $2.7 $2.6 $109.0 $100.1 $94.9 $91.0 $92.1 $93.6 $89.7 $83.0 $81.3 $78.7 $931.1 Total $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $4.9 $4.9 $4.7 $4.4 $4.2 $4.1 $168.8 $154.9 $146.9 $140.9 $142.6 $144.9 $138.9 $128.5 $125.9 $121.8 $1,441.3 Tasmania Direct $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Induced $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Total $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Victoria Direct $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $1.7 $1.7 $1.6 $16.2 $1.5 $1.4 $1.3 $1.3 $1.3 $1.3 $51.4 $49.9 $48.4 $46.9 $45.4 $43.9 $315.3 Induced $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $3.7 $3.7 $3.5 $35.3 $3.2 $3.1 $2.9 $2.9 $2.8 $2.8 $111.8 $108.5 $105.2 $101.9 $98.7 $95.4 $685.4 Total $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $5.4 $5.4 $5.1 $51.5 $4.6 $4.5 $4.3 $4.2 $4.1 $4.1 $163.2 $158.4 $153.6 $148.8 $144.1 $139.3 $1,000.7 National Total $41.6 $3.4 $19.6 $141.8 $207.2 $123.3 $114.1 $97.4 $98.2 $333.1 $416.5 $271.4 $378.4 $343.9 $603.8 $474.7 $475.7 $582.3 $506.5 $5,233.0
Table 17: Estimated economic contribution of CST investment – No Regrets Case - Contribution to Employment - FTEs Person 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 years NSW Direct 0 0 0 19 242 104 17 16 40 129 90 53 205 14 80 13 56 1,344 145 2,566 Induced 0 0 0 40 525 226 36 34 87 279 195 114 444 30 173 29 121 -955 315 1,693 Total 0 0 0 59 767 330 53 50 126 408 286 167 649 43 252 42 177 389 461 4,259 Queensland Direct 75 6 35 218 100 95 87 143 120 153 369 162 205 54 458 315 299 434 289 3,616 Induced 152 13 72 441 202 192 177 290 242 310 749 328 416 110 929 638 606 880 586 7,333 Total 227 19 107 659 302 287 264 433 362 463 1,118 489 621 164 1,387 953 905 1,314 876 10,949 Sth Aust Direct 0 0 0 10 10 9 9 8 8 331 304 288 276 280 284 272 252 247 239 2,826 Induced 0 0 0 17 17 16 15 15 14 586 538 510 489 495 503 482 446 437 423 5,002 Total 0 0 0 27 27 25 24 23 22 917 841 798 765 774 787 754 698 684 661 7,827 Tasmania Direct 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Induced 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Victoria Direct 0 0 0 9 9 9 90 8 8 7 7 7 7 285 276 268 260 251 243 1,746 Induced 0 0 0 20 20 19 190 17 17 16 16 15 15 601 584 566 548 531 513 3,687 Total 0 0 0 29 29 28 279 25 24 23 23 23 22 886 860 834 808 782 756 5,432 National Total 227 19 107 774 1,125 670 621 531 535 1,810 2,267 1,476 2,057 1,868 3,286 2,583 2,588 3,168 2,754 28,467
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Figure 5: Estimated economic contribution of CST investment – No Regrets Case - Contribution to Employment - FTEs
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4 Commercialisation of next generation technologies: Patent analysis
The commercialisation of next generation technologies provides an economic opportunity for exports and the use of Australian technology in CST plants and applications domestically and internationally. Once these technologies are commercialised, an economic impact can be felt through product sales domestically or via exports, licenses, patent sale or start-ups including job creation. The Australian Solar Thermal Research Institute (ASTRI) undertakes research aimed at reducing capital expenditure of CSP plants (e.g. heliostat cost reduction and receiver performance), increasing capacity (e.g. low-cost phase change material thermal storage systems), improving efficiency (solar supercritical carbon dioxide system development) and adding product value (e.g. mirror cleanliness and cleaning). Its research is conducted with a number of US research partners (the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories and Arizona State University) and it has relationships with businesses including CST company, Abengoa Solar (Spain) and Mitsubishi Hitashi Power Systems (Japan). This section presents a patent analysis of the major components of a CST plant. It reviews intellectual property applications (including patents and trademarks) lodged with the Australian patent office by both Australian businesses and international firms. In doing so, it identifies key players with intellectual property (IP)/technology and knowhow who can be useful collaborators as opportunities for the development of key components are explored. Both local and international players are identified, as partnerships with major international CST businesses would be instrumental in commercialising products overseas and integrating in the design processes of future CST plants worldwide and in global supply chains. It also provides the timeline showing IP activity for each component and the countries that are most active in lodging IP applications for each component in Australia. Data for this section is sourced from IP Australia (IP NOVA, 2018).
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4.1 Heliostats Overall 50 IP applications around heliostats have been lodged in Australia which demonstrates an emerging capability in this area in Australia. Key Australian applicants include CSIRO, HeliostatSA and Heliosystems, thereby reflecting the higher number of patents in ACT and NSW (Figure 6). The lodging of heliostat IP applications has increased between 2013 and 2016 with Vast Solar lodging the most recent patent application in 2016. Japan and the US are the most active countries in lodging heliostat patents in Australia.
Table 18: Top heliostat IP applications in Australia Top 10 Worldwide Applicants Top 10 Applicants in Australia Mitsui engineering & shipbuilding co (8) CSIRO (4) CSIRO (4) HeliostatSA (1) Solarcity corp (4) Heliosystems (1) Qbotix (3) Strand lighting (1) MITAKA KOHKI CO (2) University of Sydney (1) ORSELLO, ROBERT (2) Vast solar (1) Solarreserve (2) Solarreserve tech (2) Tokyo institute of tech (2) Abengoa solar new tech (1)
Figure 6: Heliostat applications across Australian States
VIC SA
ACT
NSW
Figure 7: Timeline showing the number of heliostat IP applications in Australia
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 8: Top IP applicant countries for heliostats
Japan United States Australia Israel Spain South Africa Unknown
15 15 9 3 2 2 2
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4.2 Heat Transfer Fluids Developments in heat transfer fluids (HTF) are important for the cost effectiveness and safety of CST solutions. Top patent applicants in Australia around HTFs include Rheem Australia and Quantum Energy Tech. Other firms such as 1414 Degrees have been conducting research into the use of silicon as a phase change material.
Table 19: Top HTF applications in Australia Top Worldwide Applicants Top Applicants in Australia EI Du Pont De Nemours & Co (14) Rheem Australia (11) Shell Internationale Research Maatschappij (13) CSIRO (5) Innercool Therapies (12) Quantum Energy Tech (5) General Electric Co (11) FF Seeley Nominees (3) Rheem Australia (11) Idalex Tech (3) BOC Group (10) SET Holdings (2) Handylab (9) Woodside Energy (2) Carrier Corp (7) World Environmental Solutions (2) Honeywell Intl (6) ACT 6 (1) Imperial Chemical Industries (6) Agroteknik (1)
Figure 9: HTF IP applications across Australian States
SA ACT
WA NSW
QLD VIC
Figure 10: Timeline showing the number of HTF patent applications in Australia
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 11: Top IP applicant countries for HTF
United States Australia Wales Japan France Canada Netherlands
337 84 49 28 26 22 18
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4.3 Service Elevators for Power Towers Service elevators are a value-add for power towers. While demand for elevators in CSP plants may be limited, elevators represent a considerable opportunity as it is used in other sectors such as windfarms (e.g. Hornsdale windfarm in Jamestown has service lifts in each of its 99 wind towers), power stations and shipyards. Overall 1,041 IP applications around elevators have been lodged in Australia. The market is dominated by international players. However, Grant Elevator Sales has lodged patents, conducts R&D and manufactures elevators. The US, Switzerland and Finland are the most active countries in lodging elevator patents in Australia.
Table 20: Top elevator IP applicants in Australia Top 10 Worldwide Applicants Top 10 Applicants in Australia Otis Elevator Co (246) Grant Elevator Sales (9) Inventio (207) Eastern Elevators (4) Kone Corp (176) Elevator Logistics (3) Kone (45) Elevator Sales (3) Kone Elevator (31) Link Elevator Co (3) Non-Entity 473695 (26) Non-Entity 812516 (2) Thyssen Elevator Capital Corp (18) Amiata Holdings (1) Westinghouse Electric Corp (11) Austoft Industries (1) Gannett Satellite Information Network (10) Australian Elevator & Gondola Co (1) Shuffle Master (10) Australian Elevator Co (1)
Figure 12: Elevator IP applications across Australian States
TAS
SA WA NSW QLD
VIC
Figure 13: Timeline showing the number of elevator IP applications in Australia
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 14: Top IP applicant countries for elevators
United States Switzerland Finland Australia Unknown China Germany
418 241 223 92 65 27
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4.4 Turbines There are various types and sizes of turbines. In terms of power turbines, a cluster analysis of patents in this sub-category includes steam, gas, wind, electric, power plant and generation. Drilling in further, 194 applications around steam turbines have been lodged in Australia. The key Australian applicant is BHP Billiton. One of its patents focused on the use of exhaust fluid produced from a gas turbine to drive a steam turbine. Siemens dominates the international players. The US, Germany and Japan are the most active countries in lodging steam turbine patents in Australia.
Table 21: Top steam related turbine IP applicants in Australia Top 10 Worldwide Applicants Top Applicants in Australia Siemens (29) BHP Billiton Innovation (2) Toshiba (11) Monash University (1) Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7) Power Rail Road (1) Westinghouse Electric Corp (7) Stanwell Corp (1) General Electric Co (6) Hitachi (6) Alstom Tech (5) Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems (4) Air Products & Chemicals (3) General Electric Tech (3)
Figure 15: Steam turbine IP applications across Australian States
WA QLD NSW
VIC
Figure 16: Timeline showing the number of steam turbine IP applications in Australia
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 17: Top IP applicant countries for steam turbines
United States Japan Germany Unknown Australia Wales Switzerland
74 63 56 21 19 12 11
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4.5 Boilers While there are various types of boilers, this analysis focuses on power boilers. There has been 215 associated patent applications filed in Australia. International players from the US and Japan dominate the market. Australian researcher Professor Gus Nathan (University of Adelaide) is conducting research into integrating combustion technology into the CST receiver. He has a patent pending in this field.
Table 22: Top steam related boiler patent applications in Australia Top 10 Worldwide Applicants Top Applicants in Australia Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems (26) Australian Water Systems (1) Babcockhitachi (20) It1 Energy (1) Alstom Tech (12) Melanesia Intl Trust Co (1) Babcock Power Services (12) Newcastle Innovation (1) Babcock & Wilcox Co (11) Non-Entity 101473 (1) Babcock & Wilcox Power Generation Group (10) Non-Entity 22910 (1) Electric Power Development Co (9) Non-Entity 346351 (1) General Electric Tech (9) Non-Entity 350524 (1) Ishikawajimaharima Heavy Industries Co (9) Non-Entity 455685 (1) Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (9) Non-Entity 457217 (1)
Figure 18: Boiler related IP applications across Australian States
QLD
VIC
NSW
Figure 19: Timeline showing the number of power boiler patent applications in Australia
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 20: Top IP applicant countries for power boilers
United States Japan Germany Switzerland Finland Australia China
62 61 20 14 10 9 7
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4.6 Mirror Coatings Relevant CST coatings include highly reflective coatings for mirrors and dust-repellent coatings. Pilkington Glass is one of the key international players. It did have an Australian operation in Victoria but with the downturn of the automotive sector, it was acquired by CSR in 2007, resulting in a new business, Virdian.
Table 23: Top mirror coating IP applications in Australia Top Worldwide Applicants Top Applicants in Australia Pilkington Glass (5) Enviro & Energy Tech Intl (2) AGC Glass Europe (3) Bluescope Steel (1) Aluminium Co Of America (2) Carl Zeiss Vision Australia Holdings (1) Enviro & Energy Tech Intl (2) Enviro & Energy Technolgies Intl Ptyltd (1) Gunnar Optiks (2) Prestige Aluminium Window Restorations (1) IDC (2) Sola Intl Holdings (1) Nippon Paper Industries Co (2) Northlight (2) Ppg Industries Ohio (2) Siemens Concentrated Solar Power (2)
Figure 21: Mirror coating IP applications across Australian States
VIC
SA NSW
Figure 22: Timeline showing the number of mirror coating patent applications in Australia
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 23: Top IP applicant countries for mirror coatings
United States Japan Australia Wales Belgium France Austria
25 8 7 7 4 3 2
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5 CST Opportunities by State
This report identifies State specific opportunities to assist States in the development of sectoral industry support strategies. Table 21 summarises these opportunities, which will be discussed through this section.
Table 24: CST opportunities by State Focus area SA VIC NSW QLD WA NT TAS Upper
Spencer Gulf West North Policy Interconnector Renewable Hubs
Heliostats Support structures
Solar Towers System Collection Control & Integration
Components Power block Manufactured Manufactured Electric Electric Thermal & Thermal Conversion Pumps & boilers
Developer EPC Contractors
Service Service Civil works Providers Maintenance RD&I
5.1 South Australia South Australia has an opportunity to develop a renewable hub in the Upper Spencer Gulf region as discussed in Section 3.1. Its businesses also have capabilities particularly related to the manufacture of components such as heliostats, support structures, towers and integration systems (See Sections 1.3 – 1.6). It is also home to three contributing ASTRI universities with Flinders University researchers undertaking research in self-cleaning coatings and industry 4.0, the University of Adelaide into combustibility technology in the tower and the University of South Australia researchers investigating the development of plastic mirrors. The State has capabilities to supply components for projects in the short term as well as to build university-industry partnerships in the development of next generation technologies for use in the longer term.
5.2 Victoria Victoria has various opportunities to develop renewable energy hubs. First, the interconnector between VIC, SA, NSW and QLD around Horsham can connect on the SA side up to about Port Augusta (Electranet, 2016). Second, consultation with key stakeholders indicate that the western half (including north-west and south-west) is a prime region to develop into a renewable energy hub for industrial heat CST applications given the presence of dairy and farming industries. Victorian businesses also have capabilities to engage in the CST value chain across a variety of components and services needed. The Victorian Government will provide $5.36m over 4 years to establish the Centre for New Energy Technologies (C4NET, 2018) with Victorian universities. It
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will include the modelling of network data. This may provide an opportunity to determine regions in Victoria where industrial heat applications for instance may be best placed, based on demands on regional electricity networks.
5.3 New South Wales New South Wales has various CST technology developers such as Vast Solar and Solastor that focus on modular CST applications that are flexible in scale. Their designs both involve the use of multiple, relatively small towers based on the needs of the application. The modular approach may provide opportunities for a range of scenarios including (but not limited to) industrial applications. Solastor and its NSW suppliers such as Heliosystems have capabilities in the provision of various components including control systems, graphite storage technology and heliostats.
5.4 Queensland Queensland has a number of opportunities for the development of the CST industry. First, the planned renewable energy hub in North Queensland may provide an opportunity for the integration of CST. Second, the Renewables 400 program and the upcoming $50M CST fund will provide opportunities for firms seeking to engage in the sector as discussed in Section 2.2. Third, University of Queensland and Queensland University of Technology also have ASTRI researchers. Such research includes developing the next generation of turbine and power block technology.
5.5 Western Australia Western Australia is somewhat unique in Australia in its capability to manufacture lifts as a value- add to towers and to undertake associated RD&I as evidenced by patent applications from one of its businesses, Grant Elevators. It has manufactured service lifts for the mining industry and also a research station in the Antarctic. As discussed in Section 1.5, service lifts are used in larger CST towers as well as a range of industries such as wind farms, power stations, shipyards and ships, mining and oil and gas and may provide an attractive opportunity given the range of prospective market segments.
5.6 Northern Territory Similar to most other Australian States, the Northern Territory has the presence of fabricators, EPC and civil works contractors which provides opportunities for the construction of CST plants and applications there. There may be opportunities for the use of CST in mining, in particular in regional clusters such as McArthur River Mine, Ranger Mine, Northern Territory Gold Mines, and Tanami Operations (Baig et al., 2015).
5.7 Tasmania Tasmania has capabilities in the construction of towers given its prior experience in the fabrication and construction of wind towers by its business, Haywards Pty Ltd. The State also has capabilities in providing a range of services associated with CST.
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6 Conclusion
There is considerable economic benefit to be derived from the development of a robust domestic CST industry and value chain. This includes the important role that the technology can play in grid stabilization and dispatchability. The industry can make important contributions to employment, advanced manufacturing, technology commercialisation and exports. In summary, the report concludes that: Renewable energy hubs can be useful in providing a streamlined processes for grid connectivity and acquiring permits. A number of these hubs may be instrumental throughout Australia, for instance in regions where there is existing network infrastructure such as the Upper Spencer Gulf/Iron triangle region in South Australia; and the interconnector between South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland needed for grid stability. Additionally, the integration of CST can be explored in regions earmarked for transmission infrastructure development such as North Queensland where the $150 million will be committed to unlock 2,000 MW of renewable energy projects (Queensland Government, 2017). Other regions may be applicable that have local investment priorities for renewables and energy, for instance those aligned to the Regional Jobs and Investment Packages: Local Investment Plans, led by the Australian Commonwealth Government, Department of Industry, Innovation and Science. Such regions also include the Upper Spenser Gulf given its existing transmission infrastructure (RJIP, 2017). Upskilling of job seekers in target regions can assist in acquiring certifications and skills required in the construction, operation and maintenance of CST plants to promote the employment of domestic workers. Liaising with the South East Region of Renewable Energy Excellence (SERREE, 2018) can be useful in facilitating these efforts as it has 1,000 members throughout Australia including education and training providers that specialise in skills needed for the renewables sector; and several Regional Development Australia (RDA) nodes. For advanced engineering and technical skills, industry secondment to international CST businesses or others from related domestic industries will be useful. RD&I efforts can be focused on locally manufactured components. First, consultation with industry indicated that cost reductions studies will be useful for various CST components, particularly focused on Australian suppliers. Existing cost reduction studies have predominantly included overseas suppliers (for instance, Coventry et al, 2016; World Bank, 2013). A concerted effort should be made to determine solutions (technical, materials, engineering and process) to assist Australian suppliers to provide competitive, cost-effective CST components. Second, strengthening the integration of Australian researchers with global design teams of large international CST businesses can promote the commercialisation and industry-based development of the next generation of CST technologies. Third, industry 4.0 approaches can be incorporated to improve the cost effectiveness, efficiency and productivity of the manufacturing process, through the use of innovative digital technologies (TMI, 2018). Such advanced processes can be included in the implementation of CST plants and also in the manufacture of components such as heliostats, support structures for mirrors, elevators and control systems that can involve advanced sensors and real-time feedback to recalibrate mirror positioning automatically, given wind and sun positioning, thereby improving operational efficiency and effectiveness of CST plants. Cooperation and coordination in setting local content requirements between industry and government will be helpful in encouraging the use of Australian manufactured components.
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Coordinated, collaborative and ongoing consultation is needed with industry to successfully implement local content requirements. Communication strategies can be useful in promoting the benefits of CST and Australian suppliers. Consultation with industry indicated that the benefits of CST for industrial heat applications can be promoted to facilitate a stable energy price to industry associations including those involved in oil and gas, mining, farming and dairy. Such communication may span media, political and data publication avenues. The visibility of Australian businesses can also be facilitated through the provision of a value chain map and businesses through websites such as ASTRI, SERREE, Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), Australian Solar Council (ASC) and Clean Energy Council (CEC). Such maps of local suppliers are available in international solar thermal associations such as the German Association for Concentrated Solar Power. Another strategy is to liaise with ICN to promote the supply specific CST components and services and other State based industry advocacy groups as the Industry Advocate Office.
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Appendix A: Australian organisations with potential to engage in the CST Supply Chain
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Appendix B: Detailed Economic Modelling Results – “Base” Case
Value Added Impact ($m) Queensland 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 0 0 0 0 0 Direct Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mining and mining services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Manufacturing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.39 6.01 5.65 5.32 5.00 28.38 Utilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.40 2.26 2.13 2.00 1.88 10.67 Construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.08 12.30 11.57 10.88 10.23 58.07 Wholesale Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Retail Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Hospitality & Food Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.74 4.45 4.19 3.94 3.70 21.02 Communication Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Finance and Insurance 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.31 3.11 2.93 2.75 2.59 14.70 Property Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.12 4.81 4.53 4.26 4.00 22.72 Ownership of Dwellings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.31 5.00 4.70 4.42 4.16 23.59 Other administrative services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Public admin & safety 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Health and Social Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Culture & Recreation Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Personal Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.37 37.96 35.69 33.56 31.56 179.14 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.48 2.33 2.20 2.06 1.94 11.02 Mining and mining services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.06 2.88 2.71 2.55 2.40 13.60 Manufacturing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.72 11.96 11.25 10.58 9.95 56.46 Utilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.23 5.86 5.51 5.18 4.87 27.64 Construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.90 19.65 18.48 17.38 16.34 92.76 Wholesale Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.57 3.36 3.16 2.97 2.79 15.84 Retail Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.52 4.25 4.00 3.76 3.53 20.06 Hospitality & Food Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.56 2.41 2.26 2.13 2.00 11.37 Transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.05 9.45 8.88 8.35 7.86 44.59 Communication Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.06 1.94 1.82 1.71 1.61 9.15 Finance and Insurance 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.43 10.74 10.10 9.50 8.93 50.71 Property Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.20 8.65 8.13 7.65 7.19 40.82 Ownership of Dwellings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.19 8.64 8.13 7.64 7.19 40.79 Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.06 12.28 11.55 10.86 10.21 57.97 Other administrative services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.99 3.76 3.53 3.32 3.12 17.72 Public admin & safety 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.11 1.05 0.98 0.92 0.87 4.93 Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.26 2.13 2.00 1.88 1.77 10.04 Health and Social Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.65 2.49 2.34 2.20 2.07 11.75 Culture & Recreation Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 2.84 Personal Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.23 2.10 1.97 1.85 1.74 9.89 Total 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 123.92 116.53 109.57 103.04 96.89 549.94
39 AITI (2018)
Value Added Impact ($m) South Australia 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Direct Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mining and mining services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Manufacturing 8.69 8.17 7.48 6.94 6.80 6.39 5.85 5.58 5.31 5.00 66.21 Utilities 3.27 3.07 2.81 2.61 2.55 2.40 2.20 2.10 2.00 1.88 24.89 Construction 17.78 16.72 15.31 14.19 13.90 13.07 11.97 11.42 10.87 10.22 135.48 Wholesale Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Retail Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Hospitality & Food Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Transport 6.44 6.05 5.54 5.14 5.03 4.73 4.33 4.14 3.94 3.70 49.05 Communication Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Finance and Insurance 4.50 4.23 3.88 3.59 3.52 3.31 3.03 2.89 2.75 2.59 34.30 Property Services 6.96 6.54 5.99 5.55 5.44 5.12 4.68 4.47 4.25 4.00 53.00 Ownership of Dwellings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 7.22 6.79 6.22 5.77 5.65 5.31 4.86 4.64 4.42 4.15 55.03 Other administrative services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Public admin & safety 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Health and Social Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Culture & Recreation Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Personal Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total 54.86 51.59 47.24 43.79 42.89 40.34 36.94 35.24 33.54 31.54 417.96 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 3.96 3.72 3.41 3.16 3.09 2.91 2.66 2.54 2.42 2.27 30.13 Mining and mining services 3.40 3.19 2.92 2.71 2.66 2.50 2.29 2.18 2.08 1.95 25.87 Manufacturing 17.49 16.45 15.06 13.96 13.68 12.86 11.78 11.23 10.69 10.05 133.26 Utilities 8.15 7.67 7.02 6.51 6.38 5.99 5.49 5.24 4.98 4.69 62.12 Construction 25.91 24.36 22.31 20.68 20.26 19.05 17.44 16.64 15.84 14.89 197.39 Wholesale Trade 3.48 3.28 3.00 2.78 2.72 2.56 2.35 2.24 2.13 2.00 26.54 Retail Trade 5.64 5.30 4.85 4.50 4.41 4.14 3.80 3.62 3.45 3.24 42.95 Hospitality & Food Services 2.97 2.80 2.56 2.37 2.32 2.19 2.00 1.91 1.82 1.71 22.65 Transport 12.62 11.87 10.87 10.07 9.87 9.28 8.50 8.11 7.72 7.26 96.15 Communication Services 2.89 2.71 2.49 2.30 2.26 2.12 1.94 1.85 1.76 1.66 21.99 Finance and Insurance 15.60 14.67 13.44 12.45 12.20 11.47 10.51 10.02 9.54 8.97 118.88 Property Services 10.31 9.70 8.88 8.23 8.06 7.58 6.94 6.62 6.30 5.93 78.57 Ownership of Dwellings 11.42 10.73 9.83 9.11 8.93 8.39 7.69 7.33 6.98 6.56 86.97 Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 15.22 14.31 13.11 12.15 11.90 11.19 10.25 9.78 9.31 8.75 115.98 Other administrative services 4.91 4.62 4.23 3.92 3.84 3.61 3.31 3.16 3.00 2.82 37.43 Public admin & safety 1.37 1.29 1.18 1.10 1.07 1.01 0.92 0.88 0.84 0.79 10.47 Education 2.86 2.69 2.46 2.28 2.23 2.10 1.92 1.84 1.75 1.64 21.77 Health and Social Services 3.30 3.11 2.85 2.64 2.58 2.43 2.22 2.12 2.02 1.90 25.17 Culture & Recreation Services 0.81 0.76 0.70 0.64 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.52 0.49 0.46 6.15 Personal Services 2.65 2.49 2.28 2.11 2.07 1.94 1.78 1.70 1.62 1.52 20.15 Total 154.96 145.72 133.44 123.69 121.16 113.93 104.33 99.53 94.73 89.08 1180.58
40 AITI (2018)
Value Added Impact ($m) Victoria 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Direct Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mining and mining services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Manufacturing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.92 6.51 6.12 5.75 5.41 5.09 35.80 Utilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.60 2.45 2.30 2.16 2.03 1.91 13.46 Construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.16 13.31 12.52 11.77 11.07 10.41 73.25 Wholesale Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Retail Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Hospitality & Food Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.13 4.82 4.53 4.26 4.01 3.77 26.52 Communication Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Finance and Insurance 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.58 3.37 3.17 2.98 2.80 2.64 18.54 Property Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.54 5.21 4.90 4.61 4.33 4.07 28.66 Ownership of Dwellings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.75 5.41 5.09 4.78 4.50 4.23 29.75 Other administrative services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Public admin & safety 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Health and Social Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Culture & Recreation Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Personal Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 43.68 41.08 38.62 36.32 34.15 32.12 225.97 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.32 3.13 2.94 2.76 2.60 2.44 17.19 Mining and mining services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 0.60 0.56 0.53 0.50 0.47 3.29 Manufacturing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.45 13.59 12.78 12.01 11.30 10.62 74.75 Utilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.77 6.36 5.99 5.63 5.29 4.98 35.01 Construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.71 20.42 19.20 18.06 16.98 15.97 112.33 Wholesale Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.41 4.15 3.90 3.67 3.45 3.24 22.81 Retail Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.03 4.73 4.45 4.18 3.93 3.70 26.03 Hospitality & Food Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.79 2.62 2.46 2.32 2.18 2.05 14.42 Transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.97 10.31 9.70 9.12 8.57 8.06 56.73 Communication Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.35 3.15 2.97 2.79 2.62 2.47 17.35 Finance and Insurance 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.43 15.45 14.53 13.66 12.85 12.08 85.01 Property Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.45 8.89 8.36 7.86 7.39 6.95 48.90 Ownership of Dwellings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.28 9.67 9.09 8.55 8.04 7.56 53.18 Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.07 14.17 13.33 12.53 11.79 11.08 77.98 Other administrative services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.52 4.25 3.99 3.75 3.53 3.32 23.36 Public admin & safety 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.94 0.89 0.84 0.79 0.74 5.20 Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.58 2.43 2.28 2.15 2.02 1.90 13.35 Health and Social Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.88 2.71 2.55 2.40 2.25 2.12 14.92 Culture & Recreation Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.73 0.69 0.65 0.61 0.57 4.02 Personal Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.21 2.07 1.95 1.83 1.73 1.62 11.41 Total 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 138.65 130.38 122.60 115.28 108.40 101.94 717.24
41 AITI (2018)
Employment Impact (FTE's) Queensland 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Direct Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mining and mining services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 35 33 31 29 27 155 Utilities 0 0 0 0 0 8 7 7 6 6 34 Construction 0 0 0 0 0 86 81 76 71 67 380 Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Retail Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hospitality & Food Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transport 0 0 0 0 0 30 28 26 25 23 132 Communication Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Finance and Insurance 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 7 6 6 33 Property Services 0 0 0 0 0 19 18 17 16 15 83 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Serv 0 0 0 0 0 39 37 35 33 31 174 Other administrative services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Public admin & safety 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Health and Social Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Culture & Recreation Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Personal Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 0 0 224 210 198 186 175 992 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 16 15 14 13 13 72 Mining and mining services 0 0 0 0 0 6 5 5 5 4 25 Manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 69 65 61 58 54 308 Utilities 0 0 0 0 0 20 19 18 17 16 88 Construction 0 0 0 0 0 137 129 121 114 107 607 Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 0 0 18 17 16 15 14 79 Retail Trade 0 0 0 0 0 50 47 44 41 39 221 Hospitality & Food Services 0 0 0 0 0 30 29 27 25 24 135 Transport 0 0 0 0 0 63 59 56 53 49 281 Communication Services 0 0 0 0 0 8 7 7 6 6 34 Finance and Insurance 0 0 0 0 0 26 24 23 21 20 115 Property Services 0 0 0 0 0 34 32 30 28 26 150 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Serv 0 0 0 0 0 96 91 85 80 75 427 Other administrative services 0 0 0 0 0 23 21 20 19 18 101 Public admin & safety 0 0 0 0 0 7 6 6 6 5 31 Education 0 0 0 0 0 19 18 17 16 15 83 Health and Social Services 0 0 0 0 0 22 21 20 19 18 100 Culture & Recreation Services 0 0 0 0 0 7 6 6 5 5 29 Personal Services 0 0 0 0 0 27 25 23 22 21 118 Total 0 0 0 0 0 677 636 598 563 529 3,004
42 AITI (2018)
Employment Impact (FTE's) South Australia 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Direct Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mining and mining services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Manufacturing 47 45 41 38 37 35 32 30 29 27 362 Utilities 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 80 Construction 116 109 100 93 91 86 78 75 71 67 887 Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Retail Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hospitality & Food Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transport 41 38 35 32 32 30 27 26 25 23 309 Communication Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Finance and Insurance 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 78 Property Services 26 24 22 20 20 19 17 16 16 15 195 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Serv 53 50 46 42 42 39 36 34 33 31 406 Other administrative services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Public admin & safety 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Health and Social Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Culture & Recreation Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Personal Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 304 286 262 242 238 223 205 195 186 175 2,314 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 26 24 22 21 20 19 17 17 16 15 196 Mining and mining services 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 47 Manufacturing 96 90 82 76 75 70 64 61 58 55 728 Utilities 26 25 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 199 Construction 170 159 146 135 133 125 114 109 104 97 1,292 Wholesale Trade 17 16 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 133 Retail Trade 62 58 53 50 49 46 42 40 38 36 473 Hospitality & Food Services 35 33 30 28 28 26 24 23 22 20 268 Transport 79 75 68 63 62 58 53 51 49 46 605 Communication Services 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 81 Finance and Insurance 35 33 30 28 28 26 24 23 22 20 269 Property Services 38 36 33 30 30 28 26 24 23 22 289 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Serv 112 106 97 90 88 82 76 72 69 64 855 Other administrative services 28 26 24 22 22 21 19 18 17 16 213 Public admin & safety 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 65 Education 24 22 20 19 19 17 16 15 14 14 181 Health and Social Services 28 26 24 22 22 21 19 18 17 16 213 Culture & Recreation Services 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 64 Personal Services 32 30 27 25 25 23 21 20 19 18 240 Total 842 791 725 672 658 619 567 541 514 484 6,411
43 AITI (2018)
Employment Impact (FTE's) Victoria 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Direct Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mining and mining services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Manufacturing 0 0 0 0 38 36 33 31 30 28 196 Utilities 0 0 0 0 8 8 7 7 7 6 43 Construction 0 0 0 0 93 87 82 77 72 68 479 Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Retail Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hospitality & Food Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transport 0 0 0 0 32 30 29 27 25 24 167 Communication Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Finance and Insurance 0 0 0 0 8 8 7 7 6 6 42 Property Services 0 0 0 0 20 19 18 17 16 15 105 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Serv 0 0 0 0 42 40 37 35 33 31 219 Other administrative services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Public admin & safety 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Health and Social Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Culture & Recreation Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Personal Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 0 242 227 214 201 189 178 1,251 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 0 0 0 0 22 20 19 18 17 16 112 Mining and mining services 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Manufacturing 0 0 0 0 79 74 70 66 62 58 408 Utilities 0 0 0 0 22 20 19 18 17 16 112 Construction 0 0 0 0 142 134 126 118 111 104 735 Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 0 22 21 20 18 17 16 114 Retail Trade 0 0 0 0 55 52 49 46 43 41 287 Hospitality & Food Services 0 0 0 0 33 31 29 27 26 24 171 Transport 0 0 0 0 69 65 61 57 54 51 357 Communication Services 0 0 0 0 12 12 11 10 10 9 64 Finance and Insurance 0 0 0 0 37 35 33 31 29 27 192 Property Services 0 0 0 0 35 33 31 29 27 26 180 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Serv 0 0 0 0 111 104 98 92 87 82 575 Other administrative services 0 0 0 0 26 24 23 21 20 19 133 Public admin & safety 0 0 0 0 6 6 6 5 5 5 32 Education 0 0 0 0 21 20 19 18 17 16 111 Health and Social Services 0 0 0 0 24 23 22 20 19 18 126 Culture & Recreation Services 0 0 0 0 8 8 7 7 6 6 42 Personal Services 0 0 0 0 26 25 23 22 21 19 136 Total 0 0 0 0 753 708 666 626 588 553 3,894
44 AITI (2018)
Appendix C: Detailed Economic Modelling Results – “No Regrets” Case
Value Added Impact ($m) New South Wales
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Direct Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mining and mining services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Manufacturing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 6.93 2.98 0.48 0.45 1.14 3.68 2.58 1.50 5.86 0.39 2.28 0.38 1.60 3.51 4.16 38.46 Utilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 2.60 1.12 0.18 0.17 0.43 1.39 0.97 0.57 2.20 0.15 0.86 0.14 0.60 1.32 1.56 14.46 Construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.09 14.18 6.10 0.98 0.93 2.34 7.54 5.28 3.08 11.99 0.80 4.66 0.77 3.27 7.19 8.51 78.69 Wholesale Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Retail Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Hospitality & Food Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 5.13 2.21 0.35 0.34 0.85 2.73 1.91 1.11 4.34 0.29 1.69 0.28 1.18 2.60 3.08 28.49 Communication Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Finance and Insurance 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 3.59 1.54 0.25 0.24 0.59 1.91 1.34 0.78 3.03 0.20 1.18 0.19 0.83 1.82 2.15 19.92 Property Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 5.55 2.39 0.38 0.36 0.91 2.95 2.06 1.20 4.69 0.31 1.82 0.30 1.28 2.81 3.33 30.79 Ownership of Dwellings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Professional, Scientific & Tech Se 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 5.76 2.48 0.40 0.38 0.95 3.06 2.14 1.25 4.87 0.33 1.89 0.31 1.33 2.92 3.46 31.96 Other administrative services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Public admin & safety 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Health and Social Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Culture & Recreation Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Personal Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.36 43.74 18.83 3.01 2.86 7.21 23.26 16.28 9.49 36.98 2.47 14.38 2.37 10.09 22.17 26.26 242.77 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 2.82 1.21 0.19 0.18 0.46 1.50 1.05 0.61 2.38 0.16 0.93 0.15 0.65 1.43 1.69 15.65 Mining and mining services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 1.57 0.68 0.11 0.10 0.26 0.84 0.59 0.34 1.33 0.09 0.52 0.09 0.36 0.80 0.94 8.72 Manufacturing 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.10 14.34 6.17 0.99 0.94 2.36 7.62 5.34 3.11 12.12 0.81 4.71 0.78 3.31 7.27 8.61 79.57 Utilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 6.22 2.68 0.43 0.41 1.03 3.31 2.31 1.35 5.26 0.35 2.04 0.34 1.43 3.15 3.73 34.52 Construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.73 22.57 9.71 1.56 1.48 3.72 12.00 8.40 4.90 19.08 1.28 7.42 1.23 5.21 11.44 13.55 125.25 Wholesale Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 4.49 1.93 0.31 0.29 0.74 2.38 1.67 0.97 3.79 0.25 1.47 0.24 1.03 2.27 2.69 24.90 Retail Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 5.03 2.17 0.35 0.33 0.83 2.68 1.87 1.09 4.26 0.28 1.66 0.27 1.16 2.55 3.02 27.95 Hospitality & Food Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 2.92 1.26 0.20 0.19 0.48 1.55 1.09 0.63 2.47 0.16 0.96 0.16 0.67 1.48 1.75 16.20 Transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.85 11.13 4.79 0.77 0.73 1.83 5.92 4.14 2.42 9.41 0.63 3.66 0.60 2.57 5.64 6.68 61.77 Communication Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 3.42 1.47 0.24 0.22 0.56 1.82 1.27 0.74 2.89 0.19 1.13 0.19 0.79 1.73 2.05 19.00 Finance and Insurance 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.28 16.69 7.19 1.15 1.09 2.75 8.88 6.21 3.62 14.11 0.94 5.49 0.91 3.85 8.46 10.02 92.65 Property Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 10.18 4.38 0.70 0.67 1.68 5.41 3.79 2.21 8.61 0.58 3.35 0.55 2.35 5.16 6.11 56.51 Ownership of Dwellings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 10.51 4.52 0.72 0.69 1.73 5.59 3.91 2.28 8.88 0.59 3.46 0.57 2.42 5.33 6.31 58.33 Professional, Scientific & Tech Se 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.17 15.30 6.58 1.05 1.00 2.52 8.13 5.69 3.32 12.93 0.86 5.03 0.83 3.53 7.75 9.18 84.91 Other administrative services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 4.55 1.96 0.31 0.30 0.75 2.42 1.70 0.99 3.85 0.26 1.50 0.25 1.05 2.31 2.73 25.28 Public admin & safety 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 1.07 0.46 0.07 0.07 0.18 0.57 0.40 0.23 0.91 0.06 0.35 0.06 0.25 0.54 0.64 5.95 Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 2.63 1.13 0.18 0.17 0.43 1.40 0.98 0.57 2.22 0.15 0.86 0.14 0.61 1.33 1.58 14.59 Health and Social Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 3.06 1.32 0.21 0.20 0.50 1.63 1.14 0.66 2.58 0.17 1.01 0.17 0.71 1.55 1.84 16.97 Culture & Recreation Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.65 0.28 0.05 0.04 0.11 0.35 0.24 0.14 0.55 0.04 0.22 0.04 0.15 0.33 0.39 3.63 Personal Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 2.51 1.08 0.17 0.16 0.41 1.33 0.93 0.54 2.12 0.14 0.82 0.14 0.58 1.27 1.51 13.92 Total 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.87 141.65 60.98 9.76 9.27 23.35 75.32 52.73 30.75 119.77 8.01 46.58 7.69 32.69 71.80 85.04 786.26
45 AITI (2018)
Value Added Impact ($m) Queensland 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Direct Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mining and mining services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Manufacturing 2.14 0.18 1.01 6.22 2.85 2.71 2.50 4.09 3.42 4.37 10.56 4.62 5.87 1.55 13.10 9.00 8.55 12.41 8.27 103.45 Utilities 0.81 0.07 0.38 2.34 1.07 1.02 0.94 1.54 1.29 1.64 3.97 1.74 2.21 0.58 4.93 3.39 3.22 4.67 3.11 38.89 Construction 4.39 0.36 2.07 12.73 5.84 5.54 5.11 8.37 7.00 8.95 21.61 9.46 12.00 3.18 26.81 18.42 17.50 25.40 16.93 211.68 Wholesale Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Retail Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Hospitality & Food Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Transport 1.59 0.13 0.75 4.61 2.11 2.01 1.85 3.03 2.53 3.24 7.82 3.42 4.35 1.15 9.71 6.67 6.34 9.20 6.13 76.63 Communication Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Finance and Insurance 1.11 0.09 0.52 3.22 1.48 1.40 1.29 2.12 1.77 2.26 5.47 2.39 3.04 0.81 6.79 4.66 4.43 6.43 4.29 53.59 Property Services 1.72 0.14 0.81 4.98 2.28 2.17 2.00 3.28 2.74 3.50 8.45 3.70 4.70 1.24 10.49 7.21 6.85 9.94 6.62 82.81 Ownership of Dwellings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Professional, Scientific & Tech Se 1.78 0.15 0.84 5.17 2.37 2.25 2.08 3.40 2.84 3.63 8.78 3.84 4.88 1.29 10.89 7.48 7.11 10.32 6.88 85.97 Other administrative services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Public admin & safety 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Health and Social Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Culture & Recreation Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Personal Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total 13.54 1.12 6.37 39.28 18.00 17.10 15.77 25.83 21.59 27.60 66.66 29.18 37.03 9.81 82.72 56.84 53.99 78.36 52.23 653.02 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 0.83 0.07 0.39 2.42 1.11 1.05 0.97 1.59 1.33 1.70 4.10 1.79 2.28 0.60 5.09 3.50 3.32 4.82 3.21 40.16 Mining and mining services 1.03 0.08 0.48 2.98 1.37 1.30 1.20 1.96 1.64 2.10 5.06 2.22 2.81 0.74 6.28 4.31 4.10 5.95 3.96 49.57 Manufacturing 4.27 0.35 2.01 12.38 5.67 5.39 4.97 8.14 6.80 8.70 21.01 9.20 11.67 3.09 26.07 17.91 17.01 24.70 16.46 205.82 Utilities 2.09 0.17 0.98 6.06 2.78 2.64 2.43 3.99 3.33 4.26 10.29 4.50 5.71 1.51 12.76 8.77 8.33 12.09 8.06 100.77 Construction 7.01 0.58 3.30 20.34 9.32 8.85 8.17 13.38 11.18 14.29 34.52 15.11 19.17 5.08 42.83 29.43 27.95 40.57 27.04 338.12 Wholesale Trade 1.20 0.10 0.56 3.47 1.59 1.51 1.39 2.28 1.91 2.44 5.89 2.58 3.27 0.87 7.31 5.03 4.77 6.93 4.62 57.74 Retail Trade 1.52 0.13 0.71 4.40 2.02 1.92 1.77 2.89 2.42 3.09 7.47 3.27 4.15 1.10 9.27 6.37 6.05 8.78 5.85 73.14 Hospitality & Food Services 0.86 0.07 0.40 2.49 1.14 1.09 1.00 1.64 1.37 1.75 4.23 1.85 2.35 0.62 5.25 3.61 3.43 4.97 3.31 41.43 Transport 3.37 0.28 1.59 9.78 4.48 4.26 3.93 6.43 5.37 6.87 16.59 7.26 9.22 2.44 20.59 14.15 13.44 19.51 13.00 162.55 Communication Services 0.69 0.06 0.33 2.01 0.92 0.87 0.81 1.32 1.10 1.41 3.40 1.49 1.89 0.50 4.23 2.90 2.76 4.00 2.67 33.35 Finance and Insurance 3.83 0.32 1.80 11.12 5.10 4.84 4.46 7.31 6.11 7.81 18.87 8.26 10.48 2.78 23.41 16.09 15.28 22.18 14.78 184.83 Property Services 3.08 0.25 1.45 8.95 4.10 3.90 3.59 5.89 4.92 6.29 15.19 6.65 8.44 2.24 18.85 12.95 12.30 17.86 11.90 148.80 Ownership of Dwellings 3.08 0.25 1.45 8.94 4.10 3.89 3.59 5.88 4.91 6.28 15.18 6.64 8.43 2.23 18.83 12.94 12.29 17.84 11.89 148.68 Professional, Scientific & Tech Se 4.38 0.36 2.06 12.71 5.83 5.53 5.10 8.36 6.98 8.93 21.57 9.44 11.98 3.17 26.77 18.39 17.47 25.36 16.90 211.31 Other administrative services 1.34 0.11 0.63 3.89 1.78 1.69 1.56 2.56 2.14 2.73 6.60 2.89 3.66 0.97 8.18 5.62 5.34 7.75 5.17 64.61 Public admin & safety 0.37 0.03 0.18 1.08 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.71 0.59 0.76 1.84 0.80 1.02 0.27 2.28 1.57 1.49 2.16 1.44 17.98 Education 0.76 0.06 0.36 2.20 1.01 0.96 0.88 1.45 1.21 1.55 3.74 1.64 2.08 0.55 4.64 3.19 3.03 4.39 2.93 36.61 Health and Social Services 0.89 0.07 0.42 2.58 1.18 1.12 1.03 1.69 1.42 1.81 4.37 1.91 2.43 0.64 5.43 3.73 3.54 5.14 3.43 42.83 Culture & Recreation Services 0.21 0.02 0.10 0.62 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.41 0.34 0.44 1.06 0.46 0.59 0.16 1.31 0.90 0.86 1.24 0.83 10.36 Personal Services 0.75 0.06 0.35 2.17 0.99 0.94 0.87 1.43 1.19 1.52 3.68 1.61 2.04 0.54 4.57 3.14 2.98 4.33 2.88 36.05 Total 41.56 3.43 19.57 120.59 55.26 52.50 48.41 79.31 66.26 84.73 204.65 89.59 113.67 30.11 253.94 174.48 165.73 240.56 160.33 2004.69
46 AITI (2018)
Value Added Impact ($m) South Australia 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Direct Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mining and mining services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Manufacturing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.23 9.47 8.69 8.24 7.90 8.00 8.13 7.79 7.21 7.06 6.83 80.83 Utilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 3.56 3.27 3.10 2.97 3.01 3.06 2.93 2.71 2.65 2.57 30.39 Construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.56 0.54 0.51 0.48 0.47 19.37 17.78 16.86 16.17 16.37 16.63 15.94 14.74 14.45 13.97 165.40 Wholesale Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Retail Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Hospitality & Food Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.17 7.01 6.44 6.10 5.85 5.92 6.02 5.77 5.34 5.23 5.06 59.88 Communication Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Finance and Insurance 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.12 4.90 4.50 4.27 4.09 4.14 4.21 4.03 3.73 3.66 3.54 41.87 Property Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.18 7.58 6.95 6.60 6.33 6.40 6.51 6.24 5.77 5.65 5.47 64.71 Ownership of Dwellings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Professional, Scientific & Tech Se 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.19 7.87 7.22 6.85 6.57 6.65 6.75 6.47 5.99 5.87 5.68 67.18 Other administrative services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Public admin & safety 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Health and Social Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Culture & Recreation Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Personal Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.75 1.74 1.66 1.57 1.49 1.45 59.75 54.84 52.02 49.88 50.49 51.30 49.17 45.49 44.57 43.11 510.27 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.10 4.31 3.95 3.75 3.60 3.64 3.70 3.54 3.28 3.21 3.11 36.79 Mining and mining services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 3.70 3.39 3.22 3.09 3.12 3.18 3.04 2.82 2.76 2.67 31.58 Manufacturing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.56 0.53 0.50 0.48 0.46 19.05 17.49 16.58 15.90 16.10 16.36 15.68 14.50 14.21 13.74 162.69 Utilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.23 0.22 0.22 8.88 8.15 7.73 7.41 7.50 7.62 7.31 6.76 6.62 6.41 75.84 Construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.83 0.82 0.78 0.74 0.71 0.69 28.22 25.90 24.57 23.56 23.84 24.23 23.22 21.48 21.05 20.36 240.99 Wholesale Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.09 3.79 3.48 3.30 3.17 3.21 3.26 3.12 2.89 2.83 2.74 32.40 Retail Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.15 6.14 5.64 5.35 5.13 5.19 5.27 5.05 4.67 4.58 4.43 52.44 Hospitality & Food Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 3.24 2.97 2.82 2.70 2.74 2.78 2.66 2.47 2.42 2.34 27.65 Transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.40 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.33 13.75 12.62 11.97 11.47 11.61 11.80 11.31 10.46 10.25 9.92 117.39 Communication Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 3.14 2.89 2.74 2.62 2.66 2.70 2.59 2.39 2.34 2.27 26.85 Finance and Insurance 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.47 0.45 0.42 0.41 16.99 15.60 14.79 14.19 14.36 14.59 13.98 12.94 12.68 12.26 145.13 Property Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.33 0.31 0.30 0.28 0.27 11.23 10.31 9.78 9.38 9.49 9.64 9.24 8.55 8.38 8.10 95.92 Ownership of Dwellings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.36 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.30 12.43 11.41 10.82 10.38 10.51 10.68 10.23 9.47 9.27 8.97 106.18 Prof, Scientific & Tech Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.48 0.46 0.44 0.41 0.40 16.58 15.22 14.43 13.84 14.01 14.24 13.64 12.62 12.37 11.96 141.59 Other administrative services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.13 5.35 4.91 4.66 4.47 4.52 4.59 4.40 4.07 3.99 3.86 45.70 Public admin & safety 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 1.50 1.37 1.30 1.25 1.26 1.28 1.23 1.14 1.12 1.08 12.78 Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 3.11 2.86 2.71 2.60 2.63 2.67 2.56 2.37 2.32 2.25 26.58 Health and Social Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 3.60 3.30 3.13 3.00 3.04 3.09 2.96 2.74 2.68 2.60 30.73 Culture & Recreation Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.88 0.81 0.77 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.72 0.67 0.66 0.63 7.51 Personal Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 2.88 2.64 2.51 2.40 2.43 2.47 2.37 2.19 2.15 2.08 24.60 Total 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.95 4.92 4.68 4.44 4.22 4.10 168.78 154.91 146.93 140.88 142.61 144.91 138.88 128.49 125.89 121.76 1441.34
47 AITI (2018)
Value Added Impact ($m) Victoria 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Direct Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mining and mining services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Manufacturing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.27 0.26 2.57 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.20 8.14 7.91 7.67 7.43 7.19 6.95 49.94 Utilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.97 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 3.06 2.97 2.88 2.79 2.70 2.61 18.78 Construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.55 0.52 5.26 0.47 0.46 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.42 16.67 16.18 15.69 15.20 14.71 14.23 102.20 Wholesale Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Retail Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Hospitality & Food Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.19 1.90 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 6.03 5.86 5.68 5.50 5.33 5.15 37.00 Communication Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Finance and Insurance 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.13 1.33 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 4.22 4.10 3.97 3.85 3.72 3.60 25.87 Property Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.22 0.21 2.06 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 6.52 6.33 6.14 5.95 5.76 5.57 39.98 Ownership of Dwellings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Prof, Scientific & Tech Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.22 0.21 2.13 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 6.77 6.57 6.37 6.17 5.98 5.78 41.51 Other administrative services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Public admin & safety 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Health and Social Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Culture & Recreation Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Personal Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.71 1.70 1.62 16.22 1.46 1.42 1.35 1.33 1.31 1.28 51.41 49.91 48.39 46.89 45.39 43.90 315.28 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.12 1.23 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 3.91 3.80 3.68 3.57 3.45 3.34 23.99 Mining and mining services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.24 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.75 0.73 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.64 4.59 Manufacturing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.56 0.54 5.36 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.42 17.01 16.51 16.01 15.51 15.01 14.52 104.29 Utilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.26 0.25 2.51 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20 7.97 7.73 7.50 7.27 7.03 6.80 48.85 Construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.85 0.85 0.80 8.06 0.73 0.71 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.64 25.56 24.81 24.06 23.31 22.56 21.82 156.73 Wholesale Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.17 0.16 1.64 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 5.19 5.04 4.88 4.73 4.58 4.43 31.82 Retail Trade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.19 1.87 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 5.92 5.75 5.57 5.40 5.23 5.06 36.31 Hospitality & Food Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.10 1.03 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 3.28 3.18 3.09 2.99 2.90 2.80 20.12 Transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.43 0.41 4.07 0.37 0.36 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.32 12.91 12.53 12.15 11.77 11.39 11.02 79.14 Communication Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.12 1.25 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 3.95 3.83 3.72 3.60 3.49 3.37 24.21 Finance and Insurance 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 0.64 0.61 6.10 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.48 19.34 18.78 18.21 17.64 17.07 16.51 118.61 Property Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.37 0.35 3.51 0.32 0.31 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 11.13 10.80 10.47 10.15 9.82 9.50 68.22 Ownership of Dwellings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.40 0.38 3.82 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.30 12.10 11.75 11.39 11.03 10.68 10.33 74.20 Prof, Scientific & Tech Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.59 0.56 5.60 0.50 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.44 17.74 17.22 16.70 16.18 15.66 15.15 108.79 Other administrative services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.18 0.17 1.68 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 5.31 5.16 5.00 4.85 4.69 4.54 32.59 Public admin & safety 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.37 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 1.18 1.15 1.11 1.08 1.04 1.01 7.25 Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.96 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 3.04 2.95 2.86 2.77 2.68 2.59 18.63 Health and Social Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.11 1.07 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 3.39 3.29 3.19 3.09 3.00 2.90 20.81 Culture & Recreation Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.29 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.92 0.89 0.86 0.83 0.81 0.78 5.61 Personal Services 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.82 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 2.60 2.52 2.44 2.37 2.29 2.22 15.93 Total 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.43 5.41 5.14 51.47 4.64 4.50 4.28 4.22 4.15 4.08 163.19 158.40 153.61 148.82 144.06 139.33 1000.71
48 AITI (2018)
Employment Impact (FTE's) New South Wales Person 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 years Direct Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mining and mining services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Manufacturing 0 0 0 3 38 16 3 2 6 20 14 8 32 2 12 2 9 19 23 210 Utilities 0 0 0 1 8 4 1 1 1 4 3 2 7 0 3 0 2 4 5 46 Construction 0 0 0 7 93 40 6 6 15 49 35 20 78 5 31 5 21 47 56 515 Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Retail Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hospitality & Food Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transport 0 0 0 2 32 14 2 2 5 17 12 7 27 2 11 2 7 16 19 179 Communication Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Finance and Insurance 0 0 0 1 8 3 1 1 1 4 3 2 7 0 3 0 2 4 5 45 Property Services 0 0 0 2 20 9 1 1 3 11 8 4 17 1 7 1 5 10 12 113 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Ser 0 0 0 3 42 18 3 3 7 23 16 9 36 2 14 2 10 22 25 236 Other administrative services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Public admin & safety 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Health and Social Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Culture & Recreation Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Personal Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 19 242 104 17 16 40 129 90 53 205 14 80 13 56 1,344 145 1,344 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 0 0 0 1 18 8 1 1 3 10 7 4 16 1 6 1 4 9 11 102 Mining and mining services 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 2 0 1 0 1 1 2 16 Manufacturing 0 0 0 6 78 34 5 5 13 42 29 17 66 4 26 4 18 40 47 435 Utilities 0 0 0 2 20 9 1 1 3 11 7 4 17 1 7 1 5 10 12 110 Construction 0 0 0 11 148 64 10 10 24 79 55 32 125 8 49 8 34 75 89 820 Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 2 22 10 2 1 4 12 8 5 19 1 7 1 5 11 13 125 Retail Trade 0 0 0 4 55 24 4 4 9 29 21 12 47 3 18 3 13 28 33 308 Hospitality & Food Services 0 0 0 3 35 15 2 2 6 18 13 8 29 2 11 2 8 18 21 192 Transport 0 0 0 5 70 30 5 5 12 37 26 15 59 4 23 4 16 36 42 389 Communication Services 0 0 0 1 13 5 1 1 2 7 5 3 11 1 4 1 3 6 8 70 Finance and Insurance 0 0 0 3 38 16 3 2 6 20 14 8 32 2 12 2 9 19 23 210 Property Services 0 0 0 3 37 16 3 2 6 20 14 8 32 2 12 2 9 19 22 208 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Ser 0 0 0 9 113 49 8 7 19 60 42 24 95 6 37 6 26 57 68 626 Other administrative services 0 0 0 2 26 11 2 2 4 14 10 6 22 1 9 1 6 13 16 144 Public admin & safety 0 0 0 1 7 3 0 0 1 4 2 1 6 0 2 0 2 3 4 37 Education 0 0 0 2 22 9 2 1 4 12 8 5 18 1 7 1 5 11 13 121 Health and Social Services 0 0 0 2 26 11 2 2 4 14 10 6 22 1 9 1 6 13 16 144 Culture & Recreation Services 0 0 0 1 7 3 0 0 1 4 3 1 6 0 2 0 2 3 4 38 Personal Services 0 0 0 2 30 13 2 2 5 16 11 6 25 2 10 2 7 15 18 166 Total 0 0 0 59 767 330 53 50 126 408 286 167 649 43 252 42 177 389 461 4,259
49 AITI (2018)
Employment Impact (FTE's) Queensland 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Direct Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mining and mining services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Manufacturing 12 1 6 34 16 15 14 22 19 24 58 25 32 8 72 49 47 68 45 155 Utilities 3 0 1 7 3 3 3 5 4 5 13 6 7 2 16 11 10 15 10 34 Construction 29 2 14 83 38 36 33 55 46 59 141 62 79 21 175 121 115 166 111 380 Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Retail Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hospitality & Food Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transport 10 1 5 29 13 13 12 19 16 20 49 22 27 7 61 42 40 58 39 132 Communication Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Finance and Insurance 3 0 1 7 3 3 3 5 4 5 12 5 7 2 15 11 10 15 10 33 Property Services 6 1 3 18 8 8 7 12 10 13 31 14 17 5 39 26 25 37 24 83 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Se 13 1 6 38 17 17 15 25 21 27 65 28 36 10 80 55 52 76 51 174 Other administrative services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Public admin & safety 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Health and Social Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Culture & Recreation Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Personal Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 75 6 35 218 100 95 87 143 120 153 369 162 205 54 458 315 299 434 289 992 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 5 0 3 16 7 7 6 10 9 11 27 12 15 4 33 23 22 31 21 72 Mining and mining services 2 0 1 5 2 2 2 4 3 4 9 4 5 1 11 8 7 11 7 25 Manufacturing 23 2 11 68 31 29 27 44 37 48 115 50 64 17 142 98 93 135 90 308 Utilities 7 1 3 19 9 8 8 13 11 14 33 14 18 5 41 28 27 39 26 88 Construction 46 4 22 133 61 58 53 88 73 94 226 99 125 33 280 193 183 266 177 607 Wholesale Trade 6 0 3 17 8 8 7 11 10 12 30 13 16 4 37 25 24 35 23 79 Retail Trade 17 1 8 48 22 21 19 32 27 34 82 36 46 12 102 70 67 97 64 221 Hospitality & Food Services 10 1 5 30 14 13 12 19 16 21 50 22 28 7 62 43 41 59 39 135 Transport 21 2 10 62 28 27 25 40 34 43 104 46 58 15 130 89 85 123 82 281 Communication Services 3 0 1 7 3 3 3 5 4 5 13 6 7 2 16 11 10 15 10 34 Finance and Insurance 9 1 4 25 12 11 10 17 14 18 43 19 24 6 53 36 35 50 33 115 Property Services 11 1 5 33 15 14 13 22 18 23 56 24 31 8 69 48 45 66 44 150 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Se 32 3 15 94 43 41 38 62 51 66 159 70 88 23 197 136 129 187 125 427 Other administrative services 8 1 4 22 10 10 9 15 12 16 38 16 21 6 47 32 30 44 29 101 Public admin & safety 2 0 1 7 3 3 3 4 4 5 11 5 6 2 14 10 9 13 9 31 Education 6 1 3 18 8 8 7 12 10 13 31 14 17 5 38 26 25 36 24 83 Health and Social Services 8 1 4 22 10 10 9 14 12 15 37 16 21 5 46 32 30 44 29 100 Culture & Recreation Services 2 0 1 6 3 3 3 4 4 5 11 5 6 2 14 9 9 13 9 29 Personal Services 9 1 4 26 12 11 10 17 14 18 44 19 24 6 54 37 36 52 34 118 Total 227 19 107 659 302 287 264 433 362 463 1,118 489 621 164 1,387 953 905 1,314 876 3,004
50 AITI (2018)
Employment Impact (FTE's) South Australia 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Direct Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mining and mining services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Manufacturing 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 1 1 52 47 45 43 44 44 43 39 39 37 362 Utilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 80 Construction 0 0 0 4 4 4 3 3 3 127 116 110 106 107 109 104 96 95 91 887 Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Retail Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hospitality & Food Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transport 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 44 41 38 37 37 38 36 34 33 32 309 Communication Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Finance and Insurance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 10 10 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 78 Property Services 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 28 26 24 23 24 24 23 21 21 20 195 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Se 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 1 1 58 53 50 48 49 50 48 44 43 42 406 Other administrative services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Public admin & safety 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Health and Social Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Culture & Recreation Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Personal Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 10 10 9 9 8 8 331 304 288 276 280 284 272 252 247 239 2,314 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 28 26 24 23 24 24 23 21 21 20 196 Mining and mining services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 47 Manufacturing 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 104 96 91 87 88 89 86 79 78 75 728 Utilities 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 28 26 25 24 24 24 23 22 21 20 199 Construction 0 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 4 185 170 161 154 156 159 152 141 138 133 1,292 Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 19 17 17 16 16 16 16 14 14 14 133 Retail Trade 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 68 62 59 56 57 58 56 52 50 49 473 Hospitality & Food Services 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 38 35 33 32 32 33 32 29 29 28 268 Transport 0 0 0 3 3 2 2 2 2 87 79 75 72 73 74 71 66 65 62 605 Communication Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 81 Finance and Insurance 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 38 35 33 32 32 33 32 29 29 28 269 Property Services 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 41 38 36 34 35 35 34 31 31 30 289 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Se 0 0 0 4 4 3 3 3 3 122 112 106 102 103 105 101 93 91 88 855 Other administrative services 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 31 28 27 25 26 26 25 23 23 22 213 Public admin & safety 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 65 Education 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 26 24 22 22 22 22 21 20 19 19 181 Health and Social Services 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 31 28 27 25 26 26 25 23 23 22 213 Culture & Recreation Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 64 Personal Services 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 34 32 30 29 29 29 28 26 26 25 240 Total 0 0 0 27 27 25 24 23 22 917 841 798 765 774 787 754 698 684 661 6,411
51 AITI (2018)
Employment Impact (FTE's) Victoria 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Direct Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mining and mining services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Manufacturing 0 0 0 1 1 1 14 1 1 1 1 1 1 44 43 42 41 39 38 196 Utilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 9 9 9 9 8 43 Construction 0 0 0 4 4 3 34 3 3 3 3 3 3 109 106 103 99 96 93 479 Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Retail Trade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hospitality & Food Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transport 0 0 0 1 1 1 12 1 1 1 1 1 1 38 37 36 35 34 32 167 Communication Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Finance and Insurance 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 9 9 9 8 8 42 Property Services 0 0 0 1 1 1 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 24 23 23 22 21 20 105 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Se 0 0 0 2 2 2 16 1 1 1 1 1 1 50 48 47 45 44 43 219 Other administrative services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Public admin & safety 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Health and Social Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Culture & Recreation Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Personal Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 9 9 9 90 8 8 7 7 7 7 285 276 268 260 251 243 1,251 Direct plus Induced Agriculture 0 0 0 1 1 1 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 25 25 24 23 22 22 112 Mining and mining services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Manufacturing 0 0 0 3 3 3 29 3 3 2 2 2 2 93 90 87 85 82 79 408 Utilities 0 0 0 1 1 1 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 25 25 24 23 22 22 112 Construction 0 0 0 6 6 5 53 5 5 4 4 4 4 167 162 157 153 148 143 735 Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 1 1 1 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 26 25 24 24 23 22 114 Retail Trade 0 0 0 2 2 2 21 2 2 2 2 2 2 65 63 61 60 58 56 287 Hospitality & Food Services 0 0 0 1 1 1 12 1 1 1 1 1 1 39 38 37 35 34 33 171 Transport 0 0 0 3 3 3 26 2 2 2 2 2 2 81 79 76 74 72 69 357 Communication Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 14 14 13 13 12 64 Finance and Insurance 0 0 0 1 1 1 14 1 1 1 1 1 1 44 42 41 40 39 37 192 Property Services 0 0 0 1 1 1 13 1 1 1 1 1 1 41 40 38 37 36 35 180 Ownership of Dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Professional, Scientific & Tech Se 0 0 0 4 4 4 41 4 4 3 3 3 3 131 127 123 119 115 112 575 Other administrative services 0 0 0 1 1 1 10 1 1 1 1 1 1 30 29 29 28 27 26 133 Public admin & safety 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 7 7 6 6 32 Education 0 0 0 1 1 1 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 25 24 24 23 22 22 111 Health and Social Services 0 0 0 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 29 28 27 26 25 25 126 Culture & Recreation Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 8 8 42 Personal Services 0 0 0 1 1 1 10 1 1 1 1 1 1 31 30 29 28 27 26 136 Total 0 0 0 29 29 28 279 25 24 23 23 23 22 886 860 834 808 782 756 3,894
52 AITI (2018)
Australian Industrial Transformation Institute College of Business, Government and Law Flinders University GPO Box 2100 Adelaide SA 5001 P: + 61 8 8201 5083 E: [email protected]