Doctor of Philosophy in POLITICAL SCIENCE
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View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by AMU Repository (Knowledge Repository) NUCLEAR POLITICS IN SOUTH ASIA: A STUDY OF INDIA’S NUCLEAR PROGRAMME ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF Doctor of Philosophy IN POLITICAL SCIENCE BY LUBNA REHMAN UNDER THE SUPERVISION OF PROF. MIRZA ASMER BEG DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE ALIGARH MUSLIM UNIVERSITY ALIGARH (INDIA) 2016 Dedicated to My Loving Parents Dr. Jalis ur Rahman & Nafeesa Rahman ALIGARH MUSLIM UNIVERSITY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS “In the name of Allah the most beneficent and merciful” At the outset, I am highly indebted and greateful to my Lord “Almighty Allah” who blessed me with the innumerable favours to be able to complete to this study. I thank my Lord for giving me loving and caring parents (Dr. Jalees-Ur- Rahman & Mrs Nafeesa Rahman) whose care, sacrifice and sustained efforts enabled me to acquire knowledge. I would like to express my sincerest gratitude to my esteemed supervisor Professor Mirza Asmer Beg for his guidance and cooperation. Beside my supervisor, I am deeply thankful to my esteemed teachers Professor Arif Hameed, Professor Mohammad Abid, Dr. Mohibul Haque and Dr. Farhana Kausar. My deep sense of appreciation goes to my friends Sadia, Rabab, Dr Adil, Siddharth, and Shadab for their care, advice and support. My greatest debt of thanks must go to my husband Ahmed Rehan Siddiqui and my loving son Arslaan for their patience, love and care throughout my work. I am also thankful to all the non teaching staff of the Department of Political Science, Hammad bhai, Ikrar bhai, Asaf bhai, Suleman Bhai, Qamar Bhai (late), Muqeet bhai for their cooperation and help. Last but not the least I am deeply thankful to University Grant Commission for the financial support I received during the entire course of my study. Lubna Rehman i PREFACE This study investigates the stability of South Asia, after the overt display of nuclear explosion by Pakistan and in India in May 1998. Since independence both the countries have conflictual relationship with each other on the issue of Kashmir. Both the countries have fought three major wars. The specific emphasis was on the analysis of the South Asia nuclearization. The relationships of both the countries have been discussed with special emphasis on India’s nuclear programme. India’s nuclear doctrine and the domestic politics of India in regard of the nuclear policy have been discussed. The study tries to explain the problem areas like arms race and nuclearization of two countries. It also touches upon the reasons for non-observance of non-proliferation treaties in vogue by the two countries. This study also includes the geopolitical environments of South Asia including China in the region. The study advocates that the South Asia in general, and India and Pakistan in particular will remain under the clouds of nuclear threat due to India and Pakistan, unless Kashmir problem is cordially solved. The intervention by the world powers especially United States in this regard is extremely important. Both India and Pakistan failed to resolve their core issue of Kashmir by bilateral talks. The study also studies the superpower interest in South Asia. If India and Pakistan do not resolve their dispute and busy in arms race, both the countries will once again indulge in any crises, which may have a potential to turn into a nuclear war. Therefore, this thesis is an effort to focus on the India’s nuclear programme and politics behind the nuclearization of South Asia. The scope of the study is undoubtedly vast. The methodology used for collection of data and writing of thesis has been purely archival, historical and analytical, so that a complete record of events and their implications for the future could be visualized. This thesis is divided into five chapters. A large number of references are quoted throughout the thesis. The first chapter titled, ‘Historical Background’ deals with the history of nuclear proliferation. The first nuclear test conducted by United States and followed by the other countries of the word. The efforts for controlling and eliminating these weapons, the horizontal dimension of proliferation of weapons, the danger of vertical proliferation, superpower and discriminatory nuclear order. ii The second chapter entitled, ‘India’s Nuclear Programme I’ deals with nuclear policy during early years, Nehru’s Indian nuclear policy from 1960s, Shastri phase, Indira Gandhi phase, Pokhran I Explosion, Internal reaction after 18 May 1974, the Janta Era, Morarji Desai’s views on nuclear issue, the Charan Singh Government. The third chapter titled, “India’s Nuclear Programme II’ deals with Indias policy since 1980s, return of Indira Gandhi, the Rajiv Gandhi era, the salient feature of the action plans, V.P. Singh government, P.V. Narasimha Rao period, the extension of NPT, United Front Government, H.D. Deve Goda, I.K. Gujral, Bharatiya Janta Party, Atal Bihari Vapayee, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and Rajagopala after 1998 test. Operation Shakti: 1998 Formulation of India’s Nuclear doctrine, the NSAB’s draft doctrine, Indias no first use policy, the danger of nuclear war in region (Kargil war). UPA government in 2004, Indo-US nuclear deal, domestic politics and the nature of political leadership. The fourth chapter entitled, “Regional Conflicts, Nuclear Proliferation and Arms Control in South Asia” deals with Kargil conflict, India and Pakistan stand on NPT, Indo-Pak wars and crisis, the agreement on non-attack on each other’s nuclear installations and facilities of India and Pakistan. Joint declaration and complete prohibition of chemical weapons by India and Pakistan. India and Pakistan’s stand on CTBT, Disarmament and India’s nuclear doctrine draft and the reaction of Pakistan. The fifth chapter titled, “Superpower Interest in South Asia” studies the importance of South Asia to superpowers. This chapter focuses on the U.S. policy towards South Asia and its support to Pakistan, Russia as a factor in India’s security, how South Asia region has undergone changes since the big powers directed their attention to this region. The Conclusion is an attempt to evaluate the facts behind the politics of nuclearization in South Asia and examine the factor behind India’s nuclear policy and some measure to stop nuclear arms race in the region. This study also deals with the arms race and global nuclear politics going on in South Asia due to its strategic location and presence of conflictual relations in the region. CONTENTS Page No. Acknowledgement i Preface ii – iii Chapter 1 Historical Background 1 – 20 Chapter 2 Evolution of India’s Nuclear Programme 21 – 82 Chapter 3 India’s Nuclear Programme 83 – 119 Chapter 4 Regional Conflicts, Nuclear Proliferation and Arms Control in South Asia 120 – 146 Chapter 5 Super Powers Interest in South Asia 145 – 171 Conclusion 172 – 185 Bibliography 186 - 196 LIST OF TABLES Table No. Topic Page No. 1 India’s Missile Arsenal, Composition, Capabilities and 87 Characteristics 2 Indian sea-based nuclear-armed ballistic missiles 87 3 Showing India’s Missiles Possessions 98 4 Showing Pakistan’s Missile Arsenal: Composition, 99 Capabilities and Characteristics Chapter-1 Historical Background ALIGARH MUSLIM UNIVERSITY Chapter 1 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND The proliferation of nuclear weapons is one of the most pressing problems in world politics today. Now the world is a more dangerous place than ever before. In the history of modern world the year 1932 was marked as one of the fateful ironies of the brutal 20th century. The German talent was transferred to America due to Hitler’s anti-Jewish politics, which enriched the American scientific community and they gathered the best scientific talent from all over the Europe. All scientists gathered the knowledge outward on a grand scale in the pursuit of a weapon of mass destruction and succeeded in manufacturing the first ever nuclear device.1 In fact the first nuclear test conducted by United States under the Manhattan project at Alamagordo, New Mexico on 16th July 1945, proved its superiority to the world, with its first nuclear attack on Hiroshima and Nagasaki on 6th & 9th August 1945 respectively. USA remained the only superpower for four year. The attack by America on Japanese city of Hiroshima and Nagasaki brought ‘nuclear power’ to the attention of the world in a sudden and dramatic way. This incident started the beginning of efforts made by the former Soviet Union and produced its nuclear bomb in 1949. The Soviet nuclear test was code-named “First lighting”.2 The decision of Britain to develop nuclear weapons supports the realistic explanation of nuclear proliferation. Britain feared the possibility of US isolationism after the Second World War. There was a concern that America might lapse into a new isolationism from which it might emerge too late to benefit England.3 The first British device was tested in Monte Bello Island of Australia on Oct. 3, 1952.4 After that France had developed the Nuclear Device and even on UN General Assembly’s request not to proceed with a forthcoming test, the French government stood firm in its decision to test the device. The French representative to the UN declared that in the absence of a general agreement on disarmament, France would resist any form of discrimination against her interests and would go ahead with her test program. The First French test was conducted on February 13th, 1960, nearly 1000 miles from Algiers.5 1 Matin, Zuberi, “Nuclear Sacred Trust”, World Focus, vol. 16, No. 5, May 1995, p. 5. 2 Matin, Zuberi, “CTBT-Testing Times”, World Focus, vol. 17, No. 2, Feb. 1996, p. 3. 3 Burma, Shibdas, Strategic Nuclear Policy – Some issues, World Affairs, December 1995, p.15.