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Strategic Roadmapping for University Planning Case Studies in Strategic Roadmapping for University Planning James Duderstadt © 2017 The Millennium Project, The University of Michigan All rights reserved. The Millennium Project The University of Michigan 2001 Duderstadt Center 2281 Bonisteel Boulevard Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2094 http://milproj.dc.umich.edu Case Studies in Strategic Roadmapping for University Planning James Duderstadt i Chapter 1 Preface Today our world has entered a period of rapid and the status quo. Instead, it is important that we consider profound economic, social, and political transformation more expansive visions that allow for truly over-the- driven by new knowledge and innovation. It has horizon challenges and opportunities, game changers become increasingly apparent that the strength, that dramatically change the environment in which our prosperity, and welfare of region or nation in a global institutions must function. knowledge economy will demand a highly educated Yet, as many leaders in higher education have citizenry enabled by development of a strong system come to realize, our changing environment requires of education at all levels. It will also require institutions a far more strategic approach to the evolution of our with the ability to discover new knowledge, to institutions. It is critical for higher education to give develop innovative applications of these discoveries, thoughtful attention to the design of institutional and transfer them into the marketplace through processes for planning, management, leadership, and entrepreneurial activities. governance. The ability to adapt successfully to the Throughout most of our history, education in profound changes occurring in our society will depend America has been particularly responsive to the a great deal on our collective ability to develop and changing needs of society during early periods of major execute appropriate strategies. Key is the recognition transformation, e.g., the transition from a frontier to an that in a rapidly changing environment, it is important agrarian society, then to an industrial society, through to develop a planning process that is not only capable the Cold War tensions, and to today’s global, knowledge- of adapting to changing conditions, but to some degree driven economy. As our society changed, so too did capable of modifying the environment in which higher the necessary skills and knowledge of our citizens: education will find itself in the decades ahead. We from growing to making, from making to serving, must seek a progressive, flexible, and adaptive process, from serving to creating, and today from creating capable of responding to a dynamic environment and to innovating. With each social transformation, an an uncertain—indeed, unknowable—future. increasingly sophisticated world required a higher level My experience as a scientist, engineer, and of cognitive ability, from manual skills to knowledge university president at the University of Michigan management, analysis to synthesis, reductionism to the led to the roles of chairing a broader range of higher integration of knowledge, invention to research, and, education policy activities at the institutional, regional, today, innovation and entrepreneurship. Our nation’s national, and international level. Hence it seemed an challenge today is to understand that once again it is interesting exercise to attempt to look back over these time to challenge current public policy and make new many projects and studies to assess their impact–what commitments to education to enable our nation to was recommended, what gained traction, and what achieve prosperity, health, and security. sank beneath the waves without making a ripple– More generally, it is clear that as the pace of change i.e., to assess from this set of case studies of policy continues to accelerate, our schools, colleges, and assignments what worked and what failed. Put another universities will need to become more adaptive if they way, were these policy efforts simply a series of quixotic are to survive. It is not enough to simply build upon quests, tilting at one windmill after another, or did they ii actually accomplish something, recognizing that while this could be a rather frustrating and disappointing exercise, perhaps it would at least be amusing if not educational. Of particular interest in this collection of case studies is application of a common technique in technology planning, strategic roadmapping, to a broad array of issues in higher education policy. In strategic roadmapping exercises, one uses expert panels to assess needs, then constructs a map of existing resources, performs an analysis to determine the gap between what currently exists and what is needed, and finally develops a plan or roadmap of possible routes from here to there, from now to the future. Although sometimes confused with jargon such as environmental scans, resource maps, and gap analysis, in reality the roadmapping process is quite simple. It begins by asking where we are today and where we wish to be tomorrow, then assesses how far we have to go, and concludes by developing a roadmap to get from here to there. The roadmap itself usually consists of a series of recommendations, sometimes divided into those that can be accomplished in the near term and those that will require a sustained effort. This report contains a series of case studies from personal experience, either as a member or, in some cases, chair of major studies of higher education policy. While several of these concern the challenges and future of higher education at the institutional, regional, national, or even global level, others consider the complexities of professional disciplines (engineering) and regional economies. Here it should be noted that these roadmap exercises were conducted over a period of two decades. Their descriptions characterize the years they were conducted and have not been updated to the present. However it is the hope that such case studies will demonstrate both the power of this approach as well as provide insight concerning some of the major national and international challenges of our times. Ann Arbor, MI 2017 iii Strategic Roadmapping Table of Contents Preface i Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Chapter 2: Environmental Scan 8 Chapter 3: A Roadmap for the State of Michigan 20 Chapter 4: A Roadmap for the Midwest States 63 Chapter 5: A Roadmap for the Future of Higher Education in the United States 113 Chapter 6: A Roadmap for the Global University 137 Chapter 7: A Roadmap for the American Research University 170 Chapter 8: A Roadmap for the University of Michigan 191 Chapter 9: A Roadmap for Engineering 231 Chapter 10: Strategy, Tactics, and Transformation 255 iv 1 Chapter 1 Strategic Roadmapping Strategic planning in higher education has had educational needs of returning veterans and then mixed success, particularly in institutions of the size, to a rapidly expanding population of young adults. breadth, complexity, and culture of the contemporary Although most institutions simply grew as rapidly university. Even the word “strategic” sends shivers as resources allowed, there were important planning up the spine of some faculty members and triggers efforts such as the California Master Plan for higher vitriolic attacks against bureaucratic planners on education. Most institutions had formal planning units, the part of many others. Yet all too often universities generally lodged in the office of the chief academic tend to react to—or even resist—external pressures officer and staffed by professionals. Typically these and opportunities rather than taking strong, decisive efforts were more focused on the gathering of data for actions to determine and pursue their own goals. So supporting the routine decision process than providing too, they frequently become preoccupied with process a context for longer-term issues. These university rather than objectives, with “how” rather than “what.” planning activities were decidedly tactical in nature Yet as many leaders in higher education have and usually did not play a significant role in the key come to realize, our changing environment requires strategic decisions at the executive officer or governing a far more strategic approach to the evolution of our board level. institutions. It is critical for higher education to give The marginal role of institutional planning changed thoughtful attention to the design of institutional in the 1980s as universities first began to grapple with processes for planning, management, leadership, and a more constrained resource base and increasingly governance. The ability to adapt successfully to the frequent financial crises. Planning was used to profound changes occurring in our society will depend determine institutional priorities for investment or a great deal on our collective ability to develop and identify candidate activities for possible downsizing execute appropriate strategies. Key is the recognition or elimination. Planning units became active, if that in a rapidly changing environment, it is important sometimes reluctant, participants in support of actions to develop a planning process that is not only capable adapted from the business world such as reengineering of adapting to changing conditions, but to some degree processes and restructuring activities. As the pace of capable of modifying the environment in which higher change in the environment of the university began education will find itself in the decades ahead. We to accelerate during the 1980s, these formal planning must
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