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Digital, Media & Internet Monitor Digital, Media & Internet Monitor Q3 2020 Thomas Egli | Managing Director Tobias Schultheiss | Managing Director Sam Fuller | Managing Director Tel: +41 43 499 43 41 Tel: +49 69 20 434 64 16 Tel: +44 20 7484 40 40 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Alexander Grünwald | Managing Director Jonathan Norman | Managing Director Martin Larsson | Managing Director Communication regarding this Tel: +41 43 499 43 43 Tel: +44 20 7290 8130 Tel: +46 73 511 9411 newsletter should be directed to [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] GCA’S RECENT DIGITAL, MEDIA, INTERNET & TECHNOLOGY TRANSACTIONS RELEVANT TRANSACTIONS CLOSED IN LAST 3 QUARTERS 2 GCA’S GLOBAL TRACK RECORD IN THE DIGITAL, MEDIA & INTERNET SECTOR EUROPE NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA ASIA 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF ONLINE SUBSECTOR VALUATIONS MEDIAN TOTAL RETURN1) MEDIAN SALES MEDIAN EV/SALES -15MEDIAN 0 EBITDA5 10 15 MEDIAN EV/EBITDA (LAST 3 MONTHS) 2020 ESTIMATE 2020 VALUATION 2020 ESTIMATE 2020 VALUATION 1 Champions 2.5% 1.0% 6.4% 2.5% 1.3% 2 Inventory-based 31.4% 6.0% 21.2% 11.8% (4.4%) Marketplaces 11.5% 6.5% 3.6% 8.0% 7.8% Travel (0.8%) 5.8% 27.4% 2.1% 185.7% 3 Diversifieds & Portals 12.8% 2.5% 9.5% 1.1% 15.8% Content Monetization 7.9% (15.5%) 6.1% (10.5%) 2.0% Social Netw. & Cmtys 8.7% 2.9% 11.2% (2.8%) 24.6% Gaming (0.6%) 1.3% (0.1%) (1.7%) (1.1%) Gambling 16.3% 1.9% 7.1% 4.0% 4.8% 4 Classifieds 8.3% 6.0% 17.8% 6.5% 14.6% Customer Acquisition 2.6% 0.0% (4.0%) (0.4%) (3.8%) Oth. Online Marketing 0.7% (2.8%) 14.3% 0.0% 3.7% E-comm. & Mktg. Solutions 0.9% (3.5%) 7.6% (2.4%) (1.8%) 5 Consumer/B2C Services 7.4% 3.3% 5.8% (0.2%) (5.9%) Payment 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 7.4% 2.2% Note: Multiples with values over 50x deemed not meaningful and excluded from analysis; 1) Median total return based on share prices adjusted for cash dividends, stock splits, rights offerings and spin-offs Source: Capital IQ (01-Oct-2020) 4 SUMMARY – DIGITAL, MEDIA & INTERNET SECTOR (1/2) SECTOR PERFORMANCE & VALUATION M&A AND IPO ACTIVITY o Share price performance was positive / stable across almost all o The number of deals in Q3 2020 was of 346 compared to 673, subsectors over the past quarter. Inventory-based E-commerce still significantly below the previous year’s third quarter. continues to outperform the rest of the asset classes (+31.4%) as a result of a fundamental shift in consumer behavior due to o The total sector deal value (disclosed) at EUR 129.2bn was far the COVID-19 pandemic. Other positive performers were higher than the previous year’s third quarter of Gambling (+16.3%) and Diversified & Portals (+12.8%). Since EUR 25.2bn. The increase was driven by a handful of very large Jan-20, Inventory-based E-commerce has experienced the transactions, including the acquisition of eBay Classifieds Group strongest returns (+90.9%), followed by Marketplaces (+36.9%) by Adevinta for EUR 8.0bn, the acquisition of Ellie Mae by and Champions (+32.4%), while Travel (-46.4%) and Customer Intercontinental Exchange for EUR 9.3bn and the acquisition of Acquisition (-19.3%) still show negative returns to date. Cogeco by Altice for EUR 5.3bn. o EV/EBITDA valuations (2020) indicated positive performance o 9 sector-relevant IPOs were completed in Q3 2020 compared to for all subsectors, with Travel (+ 185.7%), Social Networks & 4 in last year’s third quarter. The most relevant IPO was the one Communities (+24.6%) and Diversified & Portals (+15.8%) of Allegro, Poland’s largest e-commerce firm, and that of The experiencing the highest gains from the rebound. Hut Group, the renowned British e-commerce. o EV/Sales valuations (2020) also pointed towards significant o Sector valuations have shown significant positive changes upwards trends for all sectors. Travel show the largest increases overall mainly driven by the Coronavirus pandemic rebound. (+27.4%), followed by Inventory-based E-commerce (+21.2%) Also M&A and IPO activities have shown strong rebounds from and Classifieds (+17.8%). the weak Q2 2020. o Please note that valuation metrics (EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales) are positively affected by downward adjustments of analysts’ consensus of the companies’ forward-looking financial profiles. This is clearly visible for the Travel space. Note: Multiples based on latest available financial statements Source: Capital IQ (01-Oct-2020); Mergermarket 5 SUMMARY – DIGITAL, MEDIA & INTERNET SECTOR (2/2) OFFERED TO ACQUIRED ACQUIRED ACQUIRED ACQUIRED ACQUIRE PROVIDER OF SOFTWARE FOR REAL-TIME DATA TELECOMMUNICATIONS BROADCAST TELEVISION ONLINE MARKETPLACES TELECOMMUNICATION MANAGEMENT OPERATOR AND MEDIA SERVICES Transaction Value: EUR 8.0bn Transaction Value: EUR 6.5bn Transaction Value: EUR 5.3bn Transaction Value: EUR 622m Transaction Value: EUR 523m Seller: eBay Inc. Seller: Private Seller: Public Seller: Public Seller: Private EV/Sales: 6.2x EV/Sales: 10.7x EV/Sales: n/a EV/Sales: 4.8x EV/Sales: 4.5x EV/EBITDA: 13.2x EV/EBITDA: 39.2x EV/EBITDA: n/a EV/EBITDA: 40.7x EV/EBITDA: 7.9x Announced: 21-Jul-20 Announced: 25-Aug-20 Announced: 02-Sep-20 (rejected) Announced: 20-Jul-20 Announced: 24-Sep-20 Note: Multiples based on latest available financial statements Source: Capital IQ (01-Oct-2020); Mergermarket 6 M&A AND IPO OVERVIEW IN THE DIGITAL, MEDIA & INTERNET SECTOR1) (1/2) TRANSACTIONS 737 740 Number of 750 694 673 647 642 3) transactions 610 Internet Software and Services 373 Internet Retail4) 500 425 376 316 389 355 346 346 229 28 250 364 39 331 315 318 284 287 318 264 190 0 18 Q3 18 Q4 19 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 20 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 500 Size of 408.15)) Internet Software and Services3) 400 transactions Internet Retail4) (in EURbn)2) 106.9 129.2 100 60.3 23.1 27.3 25.2 23.6 21.2 0 18 Q3 18 Q4 19 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 20 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 500 408.15) Over 1000m 400 500 - 1000m 129.2 106.9 250 - 500m 100 60.3 23.1 27.3 25.2 23.6 21.2 Under 250m 0 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 20 Q2 20 Q3 Note: 1) Target located in Europe or North America; 2) Includes only transactions for which financial details are publicly available; 3) Includes Cable and Satellite, Data Processing and Outsourced Services, Application Software, Internet Services and Infrastructure, and Interactive Media and Services; 4) Includes Broadcasting, Internet and Direct Marketing Retail, Publishing, and Advertising; 5) Includes large transactions such as the acquisition of Jio Platforms by consortium led by Facebook and the Virgin Media /O2 merger; Source: Capital IQ (01-Oct-2020) 7 M&A AND IPO OVERVIEW IN THE DIGITAL, MEDIA & INTERNET SECTOR1) (2/2) IPOs Number of 10 10 9 IPOs Internet Software and Services3) Internet Retail4) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 20 Q3 Value of IPO 10 Internet Software and Services3) proceeds Internet Retail4) (in EURbn) 6.9 3.2 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.02) 0.0 0.0 0 18 Q3 18 Q4 19 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 20 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 Note: 1) Company located in Europe or North America; 2) Excludes Slack’s IPO of USD 15.7bn; 3) Includes Cable and Satellite, Data Processing and Outsourced Services, Application Software, Internet Services and Infrastructure, and Interactive Media and Services; 4) Includes Broadcasting, Internet and Direct Marketing Retail, Publishing, and Advertising Source: Capital IQ (01-Oct-2020) 8 DIGITAL, MEDIA & INTERNET: HOW WE DEFINE THE UNIVERSE 1 Champions 2 E-commerce & Travel Champions Inventory based Marketplaces Travel # of companies 10 # of companies 24 # of companies 14 # of companies 11 Combined EV Combined EV Combined EV Combined EV (EURbn) 7,208.8 (EURbn) 1602.1 (EURbn) 829.2 (EURbn) 42.6 3 Content & Communities Social Network Diversified & Portals Content Monetization Gaming Gambling & Communities # of companies 14 # of companies 6 # of companies 12 # of companies 14 # of companies 13 Combined EV Combined EV Combined EV Combined EV (EURbn) 774.5 Combined EV (€bn) 20.5 (EURbn) 91.0 (EURbn) 178.3 (EURbn) 55.7 4 Marketing & Classifieds Customer E-commerce & Classifieds Other Online Marketing Acquisition Mrkt. solutions # of companies 13 # of companies 17 # of companies 9 # of companies 7 Combined EV Combined EV Combined EV Combined EV (EURbn) 69.4 (EURbn) 58.6 (EURbn) 27.4 (EURbn) 121.1 5 Consumer/B2C Services & Payment Consumer/ Payment Overall B2C Services # of companies 8 # of companies 4 # of companies 176 Combined EV Combined EV Combined EV (EURbn) 80.4 (EURbn) 314.9 (EURbn) 11,474.5 Notes: “Champions” are companies from all sectors with a market capitalization of over EUR 50bn Source: Capital IQ (01-Oct-2020) 9 ONLINE SUBSECTOR VALUATIONS 2020 AND 2021 MEDIAN EV/SALES MEDIAN EV/EBITDA MEDIAN SALES GROWTH YOY MEDIAN EBITDA MARGIN 8.5x 24.5x 12.3% 29.3% 1 Champions 6.4x 20.2x 18.8% 33.5% 1.7x 23.6x 23.8% 6.7% 2 Inventory-based E-commerce 1.5x 19.5x 13.1% 6.9% 7.2x 26.5x 27.1% 21.5% Marketplaces 5.2x 23.2x 15.4% 22.8% 3.8x 25.3x (54.4%) (3.0%) Travel 2.5x 12.8x 64.8% 14.9% 3.0x 14.4x (5.7%) 18.1% 3 Diversifieds & Portals 2.8x 13.3x 10.0% 20.3% 2.1x 17.5x 6.3% 18.0% Content Monetization 2.1x 15.9x 10.2% 20.9% 1.6x 16.3x (5.1%) 18.2% Social Netw.
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