AMENDMENT C125 SURF COAST PLANNING SCHEME CAPE OTWAY ROAD AUSTRALIA EXPERT EVIDENCE STATEMENT MATT AINSAAR MANAGING DIRECTOR, URBAN ENTERPRISE PTY LTD

COESR PTY LTD | JANUARY 2020

CONTENTS

1. QUALIFICATIONS 5 2. ENGAGEMENT 6 3. BACKGROUND 10 4. ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 14 4.1. INTRODUCTION 14 4.2. GENERAL OVERVIEW 14 4.3. COMMENTARY ON THE METHOD USED IN THE EIA 15 4.4. ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT OUTCOMES 22 4.5. CONCLUSIONS REGARDING ECONOMIC IMPACT 23 5. ACCOMMODATION ASSESSMENT 24 5.1. INTRODUCTION 24 5.2. STRATEGIC REVIEW 25 5.3. ACCOMMODATION SUPPLY 26 5.4. ACCOMMODATION DEMAND 28 5.5. CONCLUSIONS REGARDING ACCOMMODATION DEMAND AND SUPPLY 33 6. SUBMISSIONS 35 7. CONCLUSIONS 38 APPENDICES 39 APPENDIX A REQUIREMENTS OF PLANNING PANELS VICTORIA – EXPERT EVIDENCE 39 APPENDIX B PROPOSED CHANGES TO CORA PROPOSAL BETWEEN ERNST & YOUNG BUSINESS CASE AND EXHIBITED PROPOSAL 43 APPENDIX C SUMMARY OF SUBMISSIONS TO AMENDMENT RELATING TO ECONOMIC IMPACT AND TOURISM MATTERS 46

FIGURES F1. CORA CONCEPT MASTERPLAN ...... 11 F1. OPERATIONAL PHASE MODELLING APPROACH ...... 16 F2. VICTORIA’S TOURISM REGIONS ...... 24

TABLES T1. PROPOSED CORA LAND USES AND QUANITITIES ...... 10 T2. ASSUMPTIONS DRIVING OVERNIGHT VISITATION (EY REPORT) ...... 17 T3. REVISED ASSUMPTIONS DRIVING OVERNIGHT VISITATION (URBAN ENTERPRISE ESTIMATES) ...... 18 T4. ASSUMPTIONS DRIVING OVERNIGHT VISITOR SPEND (CORA BUSINESS CASE VS URBAN ENTERPRISE) ...... 19 T5. ESTIMATED RETAIL TURNOVER (PER ANNUM) ...... 20 T6. ECONOMIC IMPACT – CONSTRUCTION PHASE ...... 22 T7. ECONOMIC IMPACT – OPERATION PHASE (ANNUAL) ...... 22 T8. ESTIMATED COMMERCIAL ROOM STOCK ...... 27 T9. PROFILE OF ACCOMMODATION - GREAT OCEAN ROAD REGION ...... 28 T10. PROFILE OF ACCOMMODATION - GEELONG AND THE BELLARINE REGION 2018 ...... 28 T11. VICTORIAN TOURISM ACCOMMODATION MONITOR 2018-19 ...... 29 T12. GREAT OCEAN ROAD REGION VISITATION SUMMARY ...... 29 T13. FORECAST COMMERCIAL TOURIST ACCOMMODATION DEMAND - GREAT OCEAN ROAD REGION –2016-17 TO 2026- 27 ...... 30 T14. FORECAST DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL TOURIST ACCOMMODATION – GEELONG AND THE BELLARINE - 2027 ..... 30 T15. ACCOMMODATION PROPOSALS ...... 32 T16. NUMBER OF SUBMISSIONS RECEIVED BY TYPE ...... 35 T17. NUMBER OF ECONOMIC / TOURISM RELATED SUBMISSIONS IN SUPPORT OR OPPOSING AMENDMENT C125 ...... 35

1. QUALIFICATIONS

1. My name is Matt Jacques Ainsaar and I am the Managing Director and founder of Urban Enterprise Pty Ltd, with offices situated at Level 1, 302-304 Barkly Street, Brunswick, Victoria. 2. Urban Enterprise is a firm of urban planners, land economists and tourism planners based in Melbourne. The firm has 30 years’ experience providing consultancy services to all levels of Government and a wide range of private sector organisations in Victoria and in other States of Australia. 3. I am a qualified planner and land economist with more than 40 years’ experience. 4. I have expertise in relation to development economics, land demand and supply, economic impact assessments and tourism assessments. I have appeared as an expert witness at Planning Panel hearings and VCAT hearings for both developers and Councils in respect of economic and tourism issues associated with planning applications and amendments. 5. My educational qualifications and memberships of professional associations include: a. Bachelor of Town and Regional Planning, University of Melbourne b. Graduate Diploma of Property, RMIT University c. Member, Planning Institute of Australia d. Member, Victorian Planning and Environmental Law Association e. Member, Economic Development Australia f. Fellow, Australian Property Institute (Certified Practising Professional).

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2. ENGAGEMENT

6. I was instructed by Planning and Property Partners (PPP) on behalf of COESR Pty Ltd, to prepare an expert evidence statement to present at this Advisory Committee hearing in relation to this matter. 7. My written instructions from PPP, dated 1 November 2019, as they relate to Amendment C125 to the Surf Coast Planning Scheme, Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) were as follows: a. “Review the material provided to you and following engagement prepare an expert witness statement in respect to the CORA development proposal and Amendment C125, which: i. Provides an independent review of the Cape Otway Road Australia Business Case (the business case) prepared by Ernst & Young (EY) and the September 2019 Economic Assessment prepared by Urban Enterprise having regard to the current CORA development proposal; ii. provides an independent ‘first principles’ analysis of accommodation supply and demand trends as relevant to the proposal; iii. provides an independent ‘first principles’ analysis in relation to any aspect of the proposal you consider necessary to form your overall opinion; iv. considers your own opinions, within the limits of your expertise, with respect to the economic benefits of proposed development; v. considers your own opinions, within the limits of your expertise, in relation to any economic and retail impact of the proposed development; and vi. provides a response to any submissions received from other parties arising from public exhibition, as relevant.” 8. I have reviewed the materials provided in my brief from Planning and Property Partners and other relevant documents and policies. Documentation that I have reviewed includes: a. 10 Connies Lane Title; b. 50 Connies Lane Title; c. 155 Batsons Rd Title; d. 1300 Cape Otway Rd Title; e. 1280-1320 Cape Otway Rd Title; f. 1300 Cape Otway Rd Title; g. 1340 Cape Otway Rd Title; h. Surf Coast Planning Scheme Amendment C125 Explanatory Report, October 2019; i. Surf Coast Planning Scheme Amendment C125 Draft Instruction Sheet, October 2019;

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j. Proposed Schedule 3 to Clause 37.02 Comprehensive Development Zone, Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA); k. Surf Coast Planning Scheme Amendment C125 Comprehensive Development Zone Map (Part of Planning Scheme maps 10 and 26); l. Proposed Clause 21.01 Municipal Strategic Statement; m. Proposed Clause 21.04 Tourism; n. Proposed Clause 21.06 Rural Landscape; o. Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) Elite Sports Training facility, Accommodation and Retail Village in the Surf Coast, Victoria Business Case, prepared by Ernst & Young (EY) on behalf of the Department of Regional Development Victoria, 1 January 2018; p. Cape Otway Road Australia Community and Stakeholder Engagement Findings, Final Report, prepared by Capire Consulting Group, 31 January 2018; q. Cape Otway Road and Connies Lane Modewarre Geotechnical Investigation, prepared by A.S. Hames Pty Ltd, 28 November 2017; r. Phase I Site History Assessment Cape Otway Road, Batsons Road and Modewarre VIC, prepared by Compass Environmental, 7 March 2018; s. Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA), Cape Otway Road, Modewarre, Victoria: Desktop Cultural Heritage Assessment, prepared by Ecology and Heritage Partners Pty Ltd 14 May 2018; t. Land Capability Assessment for Sustainable Irrigation of Recycled Water at the CORA development in Modewarre for Out Task Environmental, prepared by Ag Challenge Consulting, August 2018; u. Cape Otway Road Australia: Waste Water Treatment and Recycled Water Land Capability Assessment Overview, prepared by Out Task Environmental, 2 August 2019; v. Concept Masterplan CORA – Cape Otway Road Australia, Tract, 18 December 2019; w. Final Landscape Masterplan CORA – Cape Otway Road Australia, Tract, 18 December 2018; x. Precinct Plan CORA – Cape Otway Road Australia, Tract, 18 December 2018; y. Technical Memorandum: Acoustic Review Re: Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) prepared by Enfield Acoustics Pty Ltd, 27 August 2019; z. Cape Otway Road Australia Economic Assessment prepared by Paul Shipp, Director, Urban Enterprise 11 September 2019; aa. CORA (Cape Otway Road Australia) Infrastructure Servicing Report, prepared by SMEC, September 2019; bb. Agricultural Land Quality Assessment, CORA – Cape Otway Road Modewarre Victoria, prepared by Phillips Agribusiness, September 2019;

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cc. Traffic Engineering Assessment CORA – Cape Otway Road Australia at Cape Otway Road and Connies Lane, Modewarre, prepared by TraffixGroup, August 2019; dd. Bushfire Development Report for the rezoning and subsequent development of an elite sports and tourism facility at ‘CORA’ Cape Otway Road, Modewarre VIC 3240, prepared by Terramatrix, September 2019; ee. Flood Report Cape Otway Road Australia, prepared by Water Technology, September 2019; ff. Cape Otway Road Australia Project – Social Impact Assessment, prepared by K2 Planning, September 2019; gg. Integrated Water Management Plan, Cape Otway Road Australia, prepared by Water Technology, 18 September 2019; hh. Biodiversity Assessment; Cape Otway Road, Australia, prepared by Ecology and Heritage Partners Pty Ltd, September 2019; ii. Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) Baseline Landscape and Visual Values Study, prepared by Tract, 20 September 2019; jj. Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) Town Planning Report, prepared by Tract, 20 September 2019; kk. Cape Otway Road Australia Comprehensive Development Plan, prepared by Tract, 17 September 2019; ll. Visitor and accommodation forecast Great Ocean Road, Deloitte Access Economics, September 2018; mm. Surf Coast Shire Visitor Insights 2018, Surf Coast Shire; nn. Regional Tourism Review, Discussion Paper, July 2019; oo. Strategic Masterplan for the Great Ocean Road Region Visitor Economy 2015 to 2015; pp. Great Ocean Road Regional Tourism Submission to Regional Tourism Review, prepared August 2019; qq. 2019 Priority Projects, G21 Regional Plan Implementation, prepared by G21 Geelong Region Alliance, October 2019; rr. Geelong and Bellarine Tourism Development Plan 2019 to 2022, prepared by Urban Enterprise, February 2019; ss. Development Advisory Committee Stage 1 Report, Cape Otway Road Australia 17 August 2019; tt. Cape Otway Road Australia Development Advisory Committee Terms of Reference; and uu. Submission to Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment – Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA), Modewarre, Agenda – Ordinary Council Meeting, Surf Coast Shire Council, 26 November 2019.

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vv. Correspondence from PPP to the Chair, Cape Otway Road Australia Development Advisory Committee, dated 20 December 2019 which incorporates a Memorandum from Tract Consultants to PPP dated 19 December 2019 outlining changes to the concept masterplan and access plan. 9. I have been assisted in preparing this evidence statement by Todd Ainsaar, Director, in respect of the tourism accommodation assessment and Jonathan Rochwerger, Senior Associate/Economist in respect of economic modelling.

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3. BACKGROUND

CORA PROPOSAL 10. Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) is a proposed elite sport training, tourism and accommodation development to be located in Modewarre, Victoria. 11. The proposal includes the following as outlined in the exhibited Concept Masterplan: a. Commercial uses, including a retail village, micro-brewery and restaurants; b. Educational and health uses, including a childcare centre, wellness practitioners and a sports science hub; c. Recreational facilities including an elite sports training facility, gymnasium and art galleries; and d. Tourism uses, including a 4 and 5 star visitor accommodation in a hotel and eco-lodges. 12. A summary of the proposed land uses and areas/quantities, as exhibited, is provided in Table T1 below.

T1. PROPOSED CORA LAND USES AND QUANITITIES

AREA Use Size 1 Retail village 1a Design Studio 200sqm 1b Art Gallery 150 patrons 1c Shop 1,220sqm 1d Food & Drink 610sqm Child care centre 90 places 1e Distribution Centre 450sqm 1f Micro-brewery 425sqm 2 Hotel 128 rooms 3 Wellness centre 12 practitioners 4 Media centre 200 patrons Elite sports facilities 5 Office 860sqm 6 Sports science hub 8745sqm 7 Gymnasium 975sqm 8 Manager’s residence 1 dwelling 9 Farm 10 Eco Lodges 61 Lodges 11 Main entry 12 Secondary entry 13 Sculpture garden - 14 Staff accommodation 28 rooms Bus parking and Car 15 Parking 16 Depot 17 Waste Water Source: CORA Economic Assessment, Urban Enterprise, September 2019. 13. However, changes have been made to the proposed concept since exhibition. Furthermore, there have been changes to the concept since the EY business case was prepared. The

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changes since EY prepared its business case are summarised in Appendix B. The key changes that affect the economic impact assessment are: a. Removal of the wave pool; b. Removal of the 48 rural residential lots; c. Removal of the Retreat Homestead (24 rooms); d. Increase in the number of eco-lodges by 24; e. Removal of the caretakers’ residences; and f. Reduction in retail area. 14. Figure F1 shows the revised proposed concept masterplan prepared by Tract in December 2019 and provided to me by PPP. The revised concept plan reflects the changes outlined above.

F1. CORA CONCEPT MASTERPLAN

Source: Tract, 18 December 2019.

AMENDMENT C125 15. Amendment C125 to the Surf Coast Planning Scheme was prepared by Surf Coast Shire Council at the request of Tract Consultants on behalf of COESR Pty Ltd. 16. Amendment C125 proposes to: a. Update the Municipal Strategic Statement to remove any existing policy conflict with the proposal and to recognise the benefits and opportunities of CORA.

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b. Rezone the land to facilitate the integrated mixed-use CORA (Cape Otway Road, Australia) development. c. More specifically, the Amendment updates: i. Clause 21.01 with an amended Clause 21.01 Map 2 to identify the CORA project location and include a new dot point in the Settlement Built Environment and Heritage section of Clause 21.01-3 stating “Support the use and development of the world class Cape Otway Road, Australia (CORA) sports, tourism and accommodation precinct at Modewarre.” ii. Clause 21.04 with an amended Clause 21.04 to include: (1) a new dot point in the Strategies section of 21.04-3 stating “Support the use and development of the world class Cape Otway Road, Australia (CORA) sports, tourism and accommodation precinct at Modewarre.” (2) an amended dot point in the Strategies section of 21.04-3 to include “strategically justified non-urban areas”. (3) an amended dot point in the Strategies section of 21.04-3 to include “key strategic rural areas shown in the Municipal Strategic Framework Plan”, “key strategic tourist destinations” and other general drafting changes. (4) a new dot point in the Reference documents section of 21.04-5 to include “Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) Comprehensive Development Plan (2019)”. iii. Clause 21.06 with an amended Clause 21.06 to include: (1) an amended dot point in the Strategies section of 21.06-3 to ensure tourism facilities “outside of the Cape Otway Road, Australia (CORA) Sports, Tourism and Accommodation Development” are limited in their intensity and scale. (2) an amended dot point in the Strategies section of 21.06-3 to direct tourism and other commercial facilities “outside of the Cape Otway Road, Australia (CORA) Sports, Tourism and Accommodation Development” to land within settlement boundaries. (3) an amended dot point in the Strategies section of 21.06-3 to discourage uses not associated with an agricultural activity in any rural area outside of the Rural Activity Zone “and the Comprehensive Development Zone 3 - Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) Comprehensive Development Plan.” (4) a new dot point in Applying zones and overlays to include reference to the “Comprehensive Development Zone 3 - Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) Comprehensive Development Plan”. (5) a new dot point in the Reference Documents section of 21.04-5 to include “Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) Comprehensive Development Plan (2019).” 17. The Amendment introduces the need for a Comprehensive Development Plan to be prepared and approved via an Incorporated document prior to a planning permit being issued for specific uses, buildings and works and subdivision. In correspondence to the

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CORA Development Advisory Committee dated 20th December 2019, PPP confirmed the intention of COESR to include the CDP as an incorporated document as part of Amendment C125. 18. The Amendment rezones land from Rural Conservation Zone (RCZ) and Farming Zone (FZ) to Comprehensive Development Zone Schedule 3 (CDZ3) to control use, buildings and works and subdivision of the land. The CDZ3 provides for Application requirements, Decision guidelines, and Exemption from notice and review for buildings and works and subdivision. 19. The Amendment replaces maps 10 and 26 - Zones in the Surf Coast Planning Scheme.

TIMEFRAME 20. In October 2018 the Minister for Planning (the Minister), as Planning Authority in respect to Amendment C125, appointed an independent Advisory Committee pursuant to s151 of the Planning and Environment Act 1987. The purpose of the Committee is to consider the CORA development proposal in accordance with the eventual Terms of Reference dated 17 March 2019. 21. The Committee undertook a Stage 1 Assessment and released its Stage 1 Report on 17 April 2019. 22. Following the release of the Advisory Committee’s report, the Minister decided that the CORA proposal was suitable for Public Exhibition subject to 16 recommendations which were responded to. Exhibition of the Amendment occurred between 21 October 2019 and 19 November 2019.

ECONOMIC BENEFITS 23. The Explanatory Report identifies that the economic benefits of the proposal are: a. $350 million in investment over 2-3 years coupled with 1000 construction jobs and 280 full time jobs. b. An improved visitor experience for the Great Ocean Road Region (GORR) generating increased visitor numbers and yield to the GORR. New investment and tourism infrastructure are required to realise the products and services available in GORR and to help achieve Victoria’s tourism potential. c. A development that will act as a platform for tourists to explore neighbouring regional areas and the hinterland within the GORR energising the regional areas as both domestic and international tourists are drawn inland to stay and spend, more equally distributing the benefits of tourism.

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4. ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

4.1. INTRODUCTION 24. My peer review of the EY business case focuses on the Economic Impact Assessment (EIA), which is included in Chapter 6.3 of the business case. The peer review includes: a. A general overview of the EIA; b. Commentary on the method used in the EIA; and c. Identification and analysis of the EIA outcomes. 25. The focus of my peer review was the preferred Option 1 – CORA development, incorporating both a tourism offering and elite sports training facility. However, as the current concept does not include the wave pool and residential development, my peer review excludes these elements from the outcomes (in particular, total visitation, visitor expenditure and economic impact). 26. As I have previously outlined, the accommodation component has also changed since EY prepared its business case, as outlined in Appendix B. The key changes are: a. Increase in the number of eco lodges from 47 to 61; and b. Removal of the Retreat Homestead (24 rooms). 27. The result of these changes is that there is no net change in the number of accommodation units in the CORA proposal.

4.2. GENERAL OVERVIEW 28. I consider that the EIA applies principles and approaches that are highly considered, methodological and clearly demonstrate the impacts of the development at a disaggregated level, taking into account the key components of CORA, as well as the impact on the broader economy. 29. I agree with the method adopted in the EIA, which lend weight to the outcomes, including: a. Consideration of the key economic indicators (economic output, value-added and job creation) using the input-output modelling technique, based on REMPLAN software; b. Identifying the economic impacts over two distinct phases – construction and operation; c. Identifying the types of economic impacts – direct benefits and indirect (flow-on) benefits; d. The adoption of visitor scenarios (low and high) to identify the effect of the key economic indicators of different levels of visitation; e. Calculating the economic impacts of the operational impact after occupancy has stabilised (in 2024-25 following a five-year ramp up); and

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f. Identifying the net impact of the development only by considering new visitors only (and new visitor expenditure). This was achieved by discounting residents from within the Region, existing visitors to the Region and eliminating double counting of visitors that would participate in multiple activities on the CORA site. 30. I am satisfied with the approach and method to the EIA. However, I consider the approach and some of the assumptions to be conservative in nature, which leads to a lower economic impact than might be expected.

4.3. COMMENTARY ON THE METHOD USED IN THE EIA

4.3.1. ECONOMIC IMPACT REGION 31. In the EY report, I note that the economic impact of the development does not consider the total impacts to Victoria. Instead, the EIA created a targeted ‘Economic Impact Region’ (the Region), inclusive of the four closest LGA areas to the CORA site (Surf Coast, Colac- Otway, Corangamite and Golden Plains). Notably, this Region excludes the Greater Geelong area so as to capture the impact of visitors from this population centre. On balance, I consider that the creation of the Region appears to be a reasonable catchment as the surrounding LGAs represent the eastern portion of the Great Ocean Road, of which CORA is considered to be a complementary inland tourism product offering that can attract new visitors to this Region (and induce economic benefits). 32. However, I consider that the Geelong LGA could be included within the Region – which will increase the scale of flow-on economic benefits – as many of the CORA suppliers and labour force are likely to come from this area.

4.3.2. MODELLING APPROACH (OPERATIONAL PHASE) 33. In Figure F1, I provide the following overview of the economic modelling approach and definitions used in the EY report for the operational phase. Based on this approach, it is clear that the analysis of economic impact by EY is driven by the level of visitation attracted to the development, specifically new visitors (ie visitors not currently attracted to the region). Therefore, the model is sensitive to any assumptions that influence visitation. EY use certain assumptions relating to average occupancy, average room density, average length of stay and ratios of daytrippers to overnight visitors to estimate visitation to the CORA site. I will explain these later in my evidence.

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F1. OPERATIONAL PHASE MODELLING APPROACH

1. Number of unique visitors (a unique visitor represents any individual that visits CORA) Unique overnight visitors to CORA Accommodation Unique daytrip visitors to the retail facility

2. Proportion of unique visitors that are new visitors to the region (new visitors exclude residents of the Region as well as existing visitors)

3. Direct new visitor spend (refers to net additional spend generated by new visitors only) Average spend generated by overnight visitors Average spend generated by daytrip visitors

4. Economic Impact of visitor spend Direct impact on output, value-add and employment Indirect impact on output, value-add and employment

DEFINITIONS 34. I have provided a list of relevant definitions to the economic impact modelling below: a. Unique visitor– any individual that visits CORA (this could include residents, existing visitors or new visitors). b. New visitor – a new visitor to the region (excluding residents of the region and existing visitors). c. Output – represents the gross revenue generated in each of the industry sectors in a defined region (represented by visitor expenditure in the EY report). d. Value added – represents the marginal economic value that is added by each industry sector in a defined region. e. Job creation – creation of jobs within a defined region, including jobs taken by those who live outside the region. f. The direct effect – involving the direct changes in net expenditure within a defined region (i.e. construction costs, visitor expenditure, etc). g. The indirect effect – typified by subsequent flow-on impacts on other sectors of the economy, particularly the supply-chain.

4.3.3. ACCOMMODATION IMPACT 35. I consider that the economic benefits of the accommodation are likely to be significant, driven by the impact of overnight visitation to CORA and subsequent direct overnight visitor spend in the Region. I broadly agree with the method and assumptions uses to determine the impact of the accommodation. However, my examination of the approach and outcomes indicates the following: a. The report provides relatively conservative assumptions to estimate the number of visitors and visitor nights for the tourism elements of the accommodation (including hotel, eco lodges and retreat homestead), which contributes to an overall underestimation of the potential impacts.

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b. For the visiting athletes/teams using the elite sports hub, additional information that I have reviewed (provided by the proponent through PPP) shows that forecast market demand is significantly greater than that outlined in the EY business case. c. There is substantial latent demand for additional accommodation within the Great Ocean Road Region, which I will examine in more detail later in my evidence. The accommodation typologies proposed in the CORA development will only account for 15% of the identified need for additional accommodation.1 d. The accommodation types will fill a market gap in the region, which is lacking in high- quality resort and boutique accommodation facilities to meet consumer preferences. Hence, the accommodation facilities and product offering at CORA is likely to attract a higher proportion of new visitors to the region.

UNIQUE OVERNIGHT VISITATION 36. I agree with the approach used to determine the number of unique visitors staying overnight at CORA, which is based on key variables such as: a. Average guest density; b. Occupancy rates; and c. Average Length of Stay. 37. However, I consider that the assumptions used by EY for occupancy are conservative. Tables T2 and T2 below compare the approach used in the EY report, versus my assumptions and estimates, which include: a. Adopting the average occupancy rate for the Great Ocean Road Region (64.4%)2 for the accommodation components, which is higher than the EY Business Case; and b. Using the additional information provided to me through PPP regarding visiting international athletes/sports teams that estimates at least 2,500 visitors per annum. 38. As shown in the tables below, my approach generates 8,800 more visitors p.a. (26% increase).

T2. ASSUMPTIONS DRIVING OVERNIGHT VISITATION (EY REPORT)

Visitor nights Unique Rooms Density Occupancy ALOS p.a. visitors p.a. Hotel 128 1.7 56% 44,477 2.5 17,791 Eco Lodge 22 2.3 54% 9,973 2.5 3,989 Lakeside Surf Eco Lodge 15 2.3 54% 6,800 2.5 2,720 Retreat Homestead 24 5.5 48% 23,126 2.5 9,251 Visiting teams 128 1 6% 2,803 4.9 568 Total 87,180 34,319 Source: CORA Business Case, p.89

1 Great Ocean Road Regional Tourism Submission to Regional Tourism Review, 2019 2 Australian Accommodation Monitor, prepared by STR, 2018-19

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T3. REVISED ASSUMPTIONS DRIVING OVERNIGHT VISITATION (URBAN ENTERPRISE ESTIMATES)

AVERAGE Visitor nights Unique Rooms Density REGIONAL ALOS p.a. visitors p.a. OCCUPANCY Hotel 128 1.7 64% 50,831 2.5 20,333 Eco Lodge 22 2.3 64% 11,820 2.5 4,728 Lakeside Surf Eco Lodge 15 2.3 64% 8,059 2.5 3,224 Retreat Homestead 24 5.5 64% 30,835 2.5 12,334 Visiting international 12,250 4.9 2,500 athletes/teams Total 113,796 43,118 Source: CORA Business Case, p.89 (adapted by Urban Enterprise)

NEW OVERNIGHT VISITATION TO THE REGION 39. The EY business case also converts the number of unique overnight visitors into new visitors to the Region, by assuming that 75% of overnight visitors are considered to be ‘new’. This is important to the modelling approach as the level of visitor expenditure that is applied to the economic impact is generated by new visitors only (i.e. excluding residents and existing visitors to the Region). 40. I agree with the principles applied here, as it is reasonable to assume that a relatively high proportion of overnight visitors are new (i.e. not residents or visitors passing through the Great Ocean Road). In addition, although there is no clear explanation behind the assumptions, on face value, I consider that the outcomes – in terms of new visitors for the low (24,643) and high (25,739) scenarios3 – appear to be within a reasonably conservative scale, as they comprise approximately 1% of total overnight visitation to the Region4. 41. However, adopting my estimates and applying a 26% increase (in Table T2) will increase the level of new visitation as follows: a. Low Scenario – 31,050 new visitors (increase of 6,407); and b. High Scenario – 32,341 new visitors (increase of 6,692).

OVERNIGHT DIRECT VISITOR SPEND 42. I agree with the approach used to calculate overnight direct visitor spend, by applying the average length of stay and average spend per night to the number of new overnight visitors. I have examined the average daily spend per overnight visitor ($340 for low and $349 for high scenario) and judged this to be a reasonable and conservative range. This is based on the following: a. For the high scenario, the average daily spend of $349 includes the room rate. If we discount the 2024-25 hotel published room rate of $283 this leaves around $66

3 CORA Business Case, p.91 4 TRA, National Visitor Survey & International Visitor Survey, 2018-19

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remaining for additional daily visitor spend on other tourist items (e.g. retail, food, entertainment etc.); b. This figure is more conservative than the average daily visitor spend of $114 (excluding accommodation) within the Great Ocean Road Region5. 43. Therefore, I am satisfied that the total overnight direct visitor spend is based on conservative assumptions – for both visitation and average spend – resulting in a reduced level of expenditure than what would reasonably be expected. 44. In addition, the Table T3 below shows that by adopting my new visitor estimates, the level of new visitor expenditure will increase by $5.5 million (low scenario) to $5.9 million (high scenario).

T4. ASSUMPTIONS DRIVING OVERNIGHT VISITOR SPEND (CORA BUSINESS CASE VS URBAN ENTERPRISE)

CORA BUSINESS CASE URBAN ENTERPRISE ESTIMATES Low scenario High scenario Low scenario High scenario Overnight visitors (new) 24,643 25,739 31,050 32,341 Average length of stay 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 Daily spend per night $340 $349 $340 $349 Day direct spend $21,270,000 $22,787,000 $26,814,780 $28,669,003 Source: CORA Business Case, p.82 (adapted by Urban Enterprise)

ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT VISITATION AND SPEND 45. The EY business case also identifies the additional visitation and expenditure impact of the development, as a portion of daytrips to CORA are expected to convert into overnight visitors within the Region (staying elsewhere). I agree with this proposition and the approach used to calculate the impact, noting that the overall outcomes in terms of visitation and expenditure are relatively small and do not materially affect the overall conclusions regarding economic impact.

4.3.4. RETAIL, COMMERCIAL & WELLNESS FACILITY 46. I have examined the assumptions behind the impact of the retail, commercial and wellness facility and found the approach to be reasonable and logical. 47. I note that EY appear to derive the level of visitation by the estimated gross retail turnover of $18.2 million per annum, as outlined in the Business Case (p.90), which assumes a rent to revenue ratio of 15% against 2023-24 estimated retail income. 48. I note that this broadly aligns with the retail assessment undertaken by Urban Enterprise6, albeit using a different approach. This retail assessment was undertaken by Paul Shipp, Director, assisted by Asaf Cohen and Madeleine Hornsby. I did not have any involvement

5 Business Victoria, Domestic Visitor and Expenditure Estimates, 2019 (escalated by 2,5% p.a. from the 2019 value of $98 to represent 2024-25 values). 6 Urban Enterprise, Cape Otway Road Australia: Economic Assessment, September 2019

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in the preparation of the report. As shown in Table T5, I estimated the annual retail turnover to be $19.9 million in 2023-24 values, based on: a. The allowable retail floorspace permitted at the development without a permit (3,200 sqm); and b. Industry benchmarks for retail turnover. 49. I therefore consider the retail turnover estimates in the EY report to be within a reasonable and conservative range. 50. However, I note that the CORA retail turnover estimates were developed based on the assumption that some wave pool visitors will contribute to retail spend. Therefore, future estimates will need to discount the impact of the wave pool on retail. As the retail model is not demand driven, this will require additional analysis.

T5. ESTIMATED RETAIL TURNOVER (PER ANNUM)

Indicative turnover Maximum as of right Use Estimated annual turnover density floorspace Shop $6,000/sqm 1,200 sqm $7.2m Food and Drink premises $5,000/sqm 2,000 sqm $10.0m UE Total (2018 values) 3,200 sqm $17.2m UE Total (2023-24 values) $19.9m7 EY Report (2023-24 values) $18.2m Source: Urban Enterprise. 51. I found the process used to subsequently derive annual visitation to the retail facilities to be reasonable and conservative, which leads to a reduced impact on visitor spend and the broader economy than might be expected. Key points I have noted include: a. The number of new unique visitors attracted to the retail facilities (49,367 for low and 74,344 for high) are daytrip visitors. This correctly eliminates any double counting and crossover with overnight visitors; and b. The level of average daily visitor spend generated by each retail visitor ($104) is consistent with the Great Ocean Road regional average of $1148. I also note this figure includes spend on all expenditure categories (e.g. transport), not just retail, which will increase the economic impact of the retail facility. 52. Finally, I have reviewed the potential impacts of the retail facilities on other retailers in the region and found that there will be no material disbenefit to the existing retail industry. This is based on the following analysis: a. The trading impact of CORA by new visitors to the Region results on new spend that would otherwise not have taken place, which, therefore, does not impact existing retailers;

7 The 2018 values have been escalated by 2,5% p.a. to represent 2023-24 values 8 Business Victoria, Domestic Visitor and Expenditure Estimates, 2019 (escalated by 2,5% p.a. from the 2019 value of $98 to represent 2024-25 values).

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b. The trading impact of CORA by residents and existing visitors will impact existing retailers, however this will be offset by: i. Overnight visitors spending outside CORA but in existing businesses within the Region; and ii. Daytrips to the facility spending a portion of daily spend outside CORA but within the Region. 53. Overall, CORA will benefit all retailers in the Region over the long-term, as it will contribute to growing visitation and increase the pool of visitor and retail expenditure.

4.3.5. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS 54. The Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) in Section 6.3.5 of the EY business case provides a clear and reasonable approach in terms of method and results by examining the present value of costs versus the present value of benefits over a 20-year period. This approach generally aligns with Department of Treasury and Finance (DTF) guidelines. However, there are several issues that require further consideration/clarification: a. The discount rate of 9.7% incorporates the inflation rate used in the CORA financial model. Whilst a 7% discount rate is typically used by DTF, specific commercial investment proponents can consult with DTF to determine the appropriate rate to use. However, adopting the higher discount rate is a conservative approach as this will reduce the net present value (NPV) and benefit-cost ratio (BCR). b. Incorporating the operating revenue, as well as the direct expenditure from visitation and value-add from visitation into the project benefits, has the potential to be double and triple counting9. However, I am not sure if this is actually the case or if EY accounted for this in their approach. 55. To examine this potential impact, I removed any potential double counting from the EY analysis. Whilst, this reduces the Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), the BCR would still be greater than 1, which demonstrates positive financial outcomes.

9 Double counting may be present as the revenue received by the development (e.g. for accommodation, retail, food & beverage, other categories) is also typically included as a visitor expenditure item.

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4.4. ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT OUTCOMES 56. I have provided a summary of the economic impact of the proposed development, based on the information provided in the EY business case, but excluding the wave pool and residential development.

CONSTRUCTION PHASE 57. Excluding the wave pool and residential components is expected to decrease the construction costs from $352.7 million to $322.6 million (a decrease of $30.1 million). Table T7 shows the estimated economic benefits for the Region from the revised construction estimates, which I have re-calculated using the multipliers in EY’s report (based on REMPLAN software). Although the revised estimates reduce the impact on total output, value-add and job creation, I note that the overall economic benefits from construction are still significant.

T6. ECONOMIC IMPACT – CONSTRUCTION PHASE

Total difference Direct Indirect Total from report Output $322.6 million $293.5 million $616.1 million -$57.1 million Value added $71.5 million $120.1 million $191.6 million -$17.9 million Jobs 134 298 432 -40 Source: CORA Business Case, p.88 (adapted by Urban Enterprise)

OPERATION PHASE 58. In Table T7, I show the revised low and high scenario annual operational impact of the development – excluding the wave pool and residential development – and the differences compared to the outcomes of the EY report. The revised outcomes were re-calculated by removing the impact of wave pool visitors (including visitation numbers and visitor expenditure levels), and applying the same multipliers used in EY’s report to the revised figures. The data below is based on the first full year following ‘ramp up’ of occupancy, which is assumed to be year 6 of operation (2024-25).

T7. ECONOMIC IMPACT – OPERATION PHASE (ANNUAL)

Difference from Difference from Low Scenario High Scenario Report Report New Unique Visitation Overnight (accommodation) 24,643 - 25,739 - Daytrip (retail) 49,367 -52,085 74,344 -116,366 Total new unique visitors 74,009 -52,085 100,084 -116,366 New Visitor Spend Daytrip direct visitor spend $5.1 million -$5.5 million $7.7 million -$12.2 million Overnight direct visitor spend $21.3 million - $22.8 million - Additional overnight visitor spend $1.3 million -$1.4 million $1.9 million -$3 million Total direct visitor spend $27.7 million -$6.8 million $32.5 million -$15.2 million Economic Impacts Direct Output $27.7 million -$6.8 million $32.5 million -$15.1 million Indirect Output $19 million -$4.6 million $22.3 million -$10.3 million Total Output $46.7 million -$11.4 million $54.8 million -$25.4 million Direct Value-add $11.6 million -$2.9 million $13.7 million -$6.3 million

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Difference from Difference from Low Scenario High Scenario Report Report Indirect Value-Add $8.8 million -$2.1 million $10.3 million -$4.8 million Total Value-Add $20.4 million -$5 million $24 million -$11.1 million Direct Jobs 99 -25 117 -54 Indirect Jobs 63 -16 74 -35 Total Jobs 163 -40 191 -89 Source: CORA Business Case (adapted by Urban Enterprise) 59. As demonstrated in the table above, without the wave pool and residential components, the overall economic benefits are reduced. However, the project will still generate significant positive financial and economic benefits. If my assumptions and estimates are adopted, the financial and economic benefits would increase.

4.5. CONCLUSIONS REGARDING ECONOMIC IMPACT 60. My conclusions regarding the assessment of the economic impact of the CORA proposal are as follows: a. The approach and method used in the EY Business Case is logical, using sound assumptions and evidence, and generates projected financial and economic outcomes that, in my view, are conservative. b. There is an identified need for more high-quality accommodation in the Region, demonstrated by visitor demand, which I will explain in more detail in the following section. c. The economic impact of the overnight accommodation market is within a reasonable scale and more moderate than my estimates for visitation and spend. However, even with these conservative outcomes the accommodation still generates a positive contribution to the tourism industry and the economy. d. The retail facilities are also likely to generate economic benefits, driven by their positive impact to visitation and visitor spend. However, this will not adversely impact existing retailers in the region and should even create long-term benefits for the wider retail industry. e. Even accounting for the exclusion of the wave pool, the CORA development will still generate significant economic benefits in terms of job creation, economic output and value-add to the economy. f. The EY business case adopts conservative assumptions that lead to a conservative (lower) assessment of the likely economic impacts.

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5. ACCOMMODATION ASSESSMENT

5.1. INTRODUCTION 61. I provide the following assessment in regard to the factors relevant to the supply and demand for accommodation relevant to the CORA proposal. 62. Relevant to this assessment is the proposed tourist accommodation within the CORA project. I have outlined the accommodation proposal below, based on the information contained within the CORA Economic Assessment (Urban Enterprise, 2019) and consistent with the latest concept plan. The proposed accommodation includes a mix of 4 and 5 star visitor accommodation in a hotel and eco-lodges. Room provision in the latest concept includes: a. Hotel – 128 rooms; b. Eco-Lodges – 61 lodges. 63. I note that the CORA site is located within the far eastern section of the Great Ocean Road tourism region, within the Winchelsea Statistical 2 Area (SA2) and that this region is adjacent to the Geelong and Bellarine Tourism Region. I have shown Victoria’s Tourism Regions in Figure 2. Given CORA’s site location, I consider that these tourism regions to both have relevance to the supply and demand factors for the accommodation proposal, therefore analysis of these regions has formed the basis of my assessment.

F2. VICTORIA’S TOURISM REGIONS

Source: Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, 2017

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64. I consider the supply of, and demand for, tourist accommodation in the Great Ocean Road Region (GORR) and the Geelong and The Bellarine Region (GTBR) separately in this section of my evidence.

5.2. STRATEGIC REVIEW 65. I have reviewed all of the strategic documents and strategic plans relevant to the CORA accommodation proposal for the Great Ocean Road Region (GORR) and for the Geelong and The Bellarine Region (GTBR). I have found that there is strong policy support for the provision of new commercial accommodation both within the Geelong and Bellarine Tourism Region and the Great Ocean Road Region. Below, I have referenced a number of key strategic documents and their relevant findings in regard to accommodation needs and gaps, these are as follows: a. The Great Ocean Road Regional Tourism Submission to the Regional Tourism Review (2019) identifies new products and experiences, including accommodation, as critical to shifting visitors from day trips to overnight10. The submission notes that accommodation proposed for the Great Ocean Road region will only account for 15% of the identified need.11 One of the recommendations is for the State Government to develop a visitor economy strategic plan for regional Victoria to drive investment in accommodation.12 b. The Strategic Masterplan for the Great Ocean Road Region Visitor Economy 2015-2025 (2016) notes that further product development and investment is required to match visitor demand and that there is a lack of high quality and large-scale accommodation to meet demand.13 One of the key objectives/actions of the Masterplan is to increase public and private investment to address current product gaps14. c. The Regional Tourism Review Discussion Paper (2019) identified that there are opportunities to facilitate the development of more high-end and boutique accommodation in some areas of regional Victoria.15 d. The Visitor and Accommodation Forecast for the Great Ocean Road (2018) identified the need for an additional 1,173 to 1,432 hotel rooms in the Great Ocean Road region by 2026-27 to meet current and forecast demand for the Great Ocean Road region16. e. The Greater Geelong and The Bellarine Tourism Development Plan (2019) (GBTDP) forecasts need for an additional 1,175 to 2,409 rooms in Greater Geelong and Bellarine Region between 2018-2027. The Plan identifies required accommodation typologies to

10 Great Ocean Road Regional Tourism, Submission to Regional Tourism Review, p.4, 2019 11 Great Ocean Road Regional Tourism, Submission to Regional Tourism Review, p.4, 2019 12 Great Ocean Road Regional Tourism, Submission to Regional Tourism Review, p.18, 2019 13 Great Ocean Road Regional Tourism, Strategic Masterplan for the Great Ocean Road Region Visitor Economy, p.8, 2015-2025 14 Great Ocean Road Regional Tourism, Strategic Masterplan for the Great Ocean Road Region Visitor Economy, p.12, 2015-2025 15 Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions, Regional Tourism Review Discussion Paper, p. 20, 2019 16 Deloitte Access Economics, Visitor and Accommodation Forecast Great Ocean Road, p. 12, 2018

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meet demand and includes opportunity for an integrated resort (80-120 rooms), a 4.5- 5 star branded hotel (up to 324 rooms).17 f. The Great Ocean Road World Class Tourism Investment Study Product Gap Audit (2011) identified that an additional 3,440 commercial guest rooms would be required across the Great Ocean Road Region by 2030 (high growth scenario). The types of accommodation identified to meet the forecast demand included large resorts of 4.5 star standard (up to 4), farm stay accommodation establishments (up to 90), large backpacker hostels (up to 5), caravan and tourist parks (up to 5), hotels/motels including budget and internationally branded 5 star accommodation (up to 12), guest houses and B&Bs, self-contained apartments and houses.18. g. The 2019 Priority Projects G21 Regional Plan Implementation notes the CORA proposal as a priority project stating “the $350 million Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) will transform 240ha of land at Modewarre into a sport, leisure and tourism community, predicted to set a new global benchmark for sport and wellbeing… G21 provides in principle support to CORA as it moves through the planning approval process.”19

5.3. ACCOMMODATION SUPPLY 66. I have reviewed various sources of information relating to accommodation supply relevant to the accommodation proposal at CORA, including consideration of accommodation in the Geelong and The Bellarine Region (GTBR) and the Great Ocean Road Region (GORRR). I have provided an outline of these sources and the results below: a. I have reviewed Australian Accommodation Monitor data prepared by STR and published by Austrade and Tourism Research Australia, which reports on supply and accommodation performance for commercial accommodation establishments across Australia with 10 or more rooms. The data is available for both the Great Ocean Road and Geelong and Bellarine Tourism regions. I provide the following key findings relevant to accommodation supply: i. The Great Ocean Road Region has an estimated commercial accommodation supply of 2,566 rooms equating to approximately 936,590 available room nights as of 2018-19 (establishments with 10 or more rooms). ii. The Geelong and The Bellarine Region has an estimated supply of 1,318 rooms equating to approximately 481,070 available room nights as of 2018-19 (establishments with 10 or more rooms). 20 67. Deloitte Access Economics prepared a visitor and accommodation forecast for the Great Ocean Road (2018). The research provides an estimate of the number of commercial accommodation rooms utilised across the region as of 2016-17. The research estimated

17 Urban Enterprise, Tourism Greater Geelong and the Bellarine, Geelong and The Bellarine Tourism Development Plan, p.55-56, 2019-22 18 Urban Enterprise, Great Ocean Road World Class Tourism Investment Study, A Product Gap Audit, p.46, 2011 19 G21, 2019 Priority Projects – G21 Regional Plan Implementation, October 2019, p. 61 20 Australian Accommodation Monitor, STR & Tourism Research Australia, 2018-19.

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that there were approximately 9,262 commercial accommodation rooms utilised across the Great Ocean Road region, including 2,784 hotel rooms and 3,495 rooms as part of holiday parks.21 68. The Geelong and Bellarine Tourism Development Plan (2019) prepared by Urban Enterprise included an audit of tourist accommodation within the region. The audit identified 257 accommodation establishments, equating to a total of 5,590 rooms (including caravan sites), of which 788 rooms were hotel/motel rooms. 69. I have provided the following which summarises estimated commercial accommodation room stock across the Great Ocean Road Region and the Geelong and Bellarine Tourism Region drawing on available sources (Table 7).

T8. ESTIMATED COMMERCIAL ROOM STOCK

Estimated Supply of Commercial Rooms Estimated Total Commercial Accommodation (Establishments with 10 or more Room Supply rooms)* Great Ocean Road 2,566 9,262^ Geelong and the Bellarine 1,318 5,590** Sources: *Australian Accommodation Monitor, STR, Tourism Research Australia and Austrade, 2018-19 ^Deloitte Access Economics, Visitor and Accommodation Forecasts Great Ocean Road, 2018 **Urban Enterprise, Geelong and Bellarine Tourism Development Strategy, 2019

ACCOMMODATION TYPES 70. I have summarised the primary accommodation typologies across the Great Ocean Road region based on an accommodation audit completed as part of the Great Ocean Road World Class Tourism Investment Study – A Product Gap Audit (2011). The accommodation types are shown in Table T8. I note that the majority of establishments were self- contained/holiday homes (58%), followed by B&B/Guest houses (15%) and Hotel/motels (14%). Only 1% of establishments were identified as resorts. 71. In terms of room supply, I note the audit showed that 36% of room supply was in hotels/motels, followed by self-contained/holiday homes (31%). Only 9% of room supply was in resort style establishments. 72. I note that the report states that “there are very few, large, high quality, internationally branded tourist accommodation establishments in the Great Ocean Road region”22 Examples of quality branded hotels and resorts in the Great Ocean Road region include: a. Wyndham Resort Torquay (Wyndham); b. RACV Torquay Resort (Torquay); c. Peppers the Sands Resort (Torquay); d. Lady Bay Resort (Warrnambool);

21 Deloitte Access Economics, Visitor and Accommodation Forecast Great Ocean Road, p. 12, 2018

22 Urban Enterprise, Great Ocean Road World Class Tourism Investment Study, A Product Gap Audit, p.84, 2011

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e. Mantra (Lorne); f. Deep Blue Hotel and Hot Springs (Warrnambool).

T9. PROFILE OF ACCOMMODATION - GREAT OCEAN ROAD REGION

Type of Accommodation Number of Establishments % of Total Rooms % of Total Self-contained/holiday homes* 505 58% 2,160 31% B&B/Guesthouse 132 15% 396 6% Hotel/Motel 124 14% 2,447 36% Caravan Park 63 7% 630 9% Backpacker/Group Accommodation 22 3% 568 8% Farm Stay 13 1% 39 1% Resort 9 1% 639 9% Total Establishments 868 100% 6,879 100% Urban Enterprise, Great Ocean Road World Class Tourism Investment Study, A Product Gap Audit, p.84 2011 73. I have reviewed the accommodation audit completed as part of the Greater Geelong and The Bellarine Tourism Development Plan 2019-22 (Urban Enterprise, 2019) (G&TBTDP), which identified 257 accommodation establishments across a range of accommodation types, with a total of 3,075 rooms (excluding caravan sites). The report notes that “across Greater Geelong and The Bellarine region, there is a low supply of Resort, Farm Stay and Backpacker accommodation establishments”.23

T10. PROFILE OF ACCOMMODATION - GEELONG AND THE BELLARINE REGION 2018

Number of % of Total % of Total Type of Accommodation Rooms Sites Establishments Establishments Rooms Camping/Caravan 21 8% 935 30% 2,515 Park/Cabin Park Self-contained 130 51% 844 27% 0 Hotel/Motel 37 14% 788 26% 0 B&B/Guest House 36 14% 192 6% 0 Apartment/Cottage/Unit 27 11% 203 7% 0 Resort 1 0% 80 3% 0 Farm Stay 2 1% 4 0% 0 Backpacker 3 1% 29 1% 0 Total 257 100% 3,075 100% 2,515 Source: Urban Enterprise, Tourism Greater Geelong and the Bellarine Development Plan, 2019, p.55

5.4. ACCOMMODATION DEMAND

ACCOMMODATION PERFORMANCE 74. Accommodation in the Geelong and The Bellarine Region achieved occupancy rates of 80% in the 2018/19 financial year, up from 76.9% in the 2017-18 financial year. Accommodation attracted an average daily rate of $172.61 in 2018/19, up from $166.32 in the previous

23 Urban Enterprise, Tourism Greater Geelong and the Bellarine Development Plan, p. 32, 2019

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financial year.24 I note that high and increasing occupancy rates and room rates are an indicator of increasing demand for commercial accommodation. 75. I note that occupancies across the Great Ocean Road Region were more modest at 64.4% in 2018-19, likely as a reflection of the type of accommodation supply. However, occupancies were up 1.3% on the previous year. The average daily rate for accommodation across the Great Ocean Road Region remained consistent between 2017-18 and 2018-19 at $168.92.25 76. More broadly, accommodation occupancies for hotels and resorts across Victoria performed well in 2017-18 and 2018-19. Luxury hotels and resorts attracted the highest occupancy rates at 85%, followed by upscale hotels and resorts (79%) and midscale hotels and resorts (78%)26, as shown in Table 10.

T11. VICTORIAN TOURISM ACCOMMODATION MONITOR 2018-19

Occupancy Accommodation type Occupancy 2018-19 2017-18 Hotels & Resorts - Luxury 85.2% 84.6% Hotels & Resorts - Upscale 78.3% 79.2% Hotels & Resorts - Midscale 78% 77.6% Source: Australian Accommodation Monitor, STR & Tourism Research Australia, 2018-19

FORECAST VISITOR GROWTH- GREAT OCEAN ROAD REGION 77. I have summarised recent and forecast visitation and visitor nights to the Great Ocean Road Region prepared by Deloitte Access Economics (Table 11). There are estimated to be an additional 2.8 million visitor trips to the Great Ocean Road Region by 2026-27 of which 752,700 are expected to be overnight visitor trips. This equates to an estimated additional 2.3 million visitor nights per annum.

T12. GREAT OCEAN ROAD REGION VISITATION SUMMARY

Trips Forecast (2026- Trip Type Change (2016-17) 27)

Day Trip Visitors 3,543,400 5,581,100 +2,037,700

Overnight Trip Visitors 2,280,300 3,033,000 +752,700

Total Trips 5,823,700 8,614,100 +2,790,400

Visitor Nights 6,992,000 9,284,800 +2,292,800

Source: Deloitte Access Economics, Visitor and Accommodation Forecast – Great Ocean Road, p. 4 Summary table prepared by Urban Enterprise, 2019

24 Australian Accommodation Monitor, STR, Tourism Research Australia and Austrade, 2018-19 25 Australian Accommodation Monitor, STR, Tourism Research Australia and Austrade, 2018-19 26 Australian Accommodation Monitor, STR, Tourism Research Australia and Austrade, 2018-19

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FORECAST COMMERCIAL TOURIST ACCOMMODATION DEMAND - GREAT OCEAN ROAD REGION 78. I have summarised the total estimated forecast room nights required in Great Ocean Road region by 2026-27 prepared by Deloitte Access Economics. This was forecast based on two scenarios, including a baseline forecast which holds existing occupancy rates constant and an improved utilisation situation. Key results include: a. The constant occupancy scenario results in an estimated requirement for an additional 4,458 commercial accommodation rooms by 2026-27. This includes an additional 1,432 hotel rooms as shown in Table 12. b. The improved utilisation forecast results in an estimated requirement for an additional 3,394 rooms by 2026-27. This includes an additional 1,173 hotel rooms as shown in Table 12.

T13. FORECAST COMMERCIAL TOURIST ACCOMMODATION DEMAND - GREAT OCEAN ROAD REGION –2016-17 TO 2026-27

Baseline Rooms utilised 2016-17 Rooms required 2026-27 Additional rooms CAGR Scenario 1: Constant Occupancy 2016-17 to 2026-27 Hotel 2,784 4,216 1,432 4.20% Holiday park 3,495 4,051 557 1.50% All commercial 9,262 13,720 4,458 4% accommodation Scenario 2: Improved Utilisation 2016-17 to 2026-27 Hotel 2,784 3,957 1,173 3.60% Holiday park 2,544 2,949 405 1.50% All commercial 8,200 11,594 3,394 3.50% accommodation Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics STA, Deloitte Access Economics, STR Global and Tourism Research, Australia IVS and NVS

FORECAST DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL TOURIST ACCOMMODATION - GEELONG AND THE BELLARINE REGION 79. I note that the G&TBTDP estimates that there were over 1 million visitors staying in commercial accommodation across the Geelong and Bellarine region. The report forecasts that an additional 157,795 to 304,575 visitors will be staying in commercial accommodation by 2027 (mid-point of 197,645), equating to an additional demand for 1,564 commercial accommodation rooms (at 60% occupancy)(Table T13).

T14. FORECAST DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL TOURIST ACCOMMODATION – GEELONG AND THE BELLARINE - 2027

Low Growth High Growth Mid-Point Growth Rate Rate Rate Additional Visitors Utilising Commercial 157,795 304,575 197,645 Accommodation to 2027 Visitor nights (average length of stay 3.3 nights) 520,722 1,005,099 652,230 Room Nights (average 1.7 visitors per room) 306,307 628,187 407,644 Rooms 839 1,721 1,117 Supportable Rooms at 60% Occupancy 1,175 2,409 1,564 Source: Urban Enterprise, Tourism Greater Geelong and the Bellarine Development Plan, 2019, p.55

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FORECAST DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL TOURIST ACCOMMODATION – BOTH REGIONS 80. In summary, there is forecast to be strong demand for additional tourist accommodation in both the Great Ocean Road and Greater Geelong and The Bellarine tourism regions, including: a. Forecast demand for an additional 3,394 to 4,458 commercial accommodation rooms across the Great Ocean Road Region by 2026-27, including between 1,173 and 1,432 hotel rooms; and b. Forecast demand for an additional 1,175 to 2,409 commercial accommodation rooms across the Greater Geelong and Bellarine Region by 2027. c. Total demand across both regions of between 4,569 and 6,867 commercial accommodation rooms.

TYPES OF ACCOMMODATION REQUIRED TO MEET DEMAND 81. I have reviewed the Great Ocean Road World Class Tourism Investment Study Product Gap Audit (2011) which identified the types of accommodation required to meet the forecast demand, most relevant to CORA. The report notes accommodation development priorities to include nature-based accommodation, large scale resort, boutique accommodation and farm stays. Specifically, this includes large resorts of 4.5 star standard (up to 4 establishments) and hotels/motels including budget and internationally branded 5 star accommodation (up to 12 establishments)27. 82. I have reviewed the Greater Geelong and Bellarine Tourism Development Plan (2019) for the types of accommodation required to meet forecast accommodation demand in Greater Geelong and the Bellarine. The Plan notes opportunity for an integrated resort of 80-120 rooms, which includes quality hotel style or self-contained accommodation as well as a number of other uses such as restaurant, conference centre, recreation, and spa and wellness (either on the edge of urban area on in rural zones).28

ACCOMMODATION PROPOSALS 83. I have undertaken desktop research into known planned or proposed accommodation developments in the region which I have summarised in Table T4. There are a number of accommodation developments in the development pipeline, however all proposals are planned and awaiting investment or yet to commence construction for various reasons. 84. Based on preliminary information, proposed or potential accommodation developments could yield an estimated 960 rooms (excluding Port Campbell West and Moonlight Head). This represents approximately between 14% and 21% of projected commercial accommodation demand to 2026. Furthermore, the likelihood and timing of development of many of these proposals remains unclear.

27 Urban Enterprise, Great Ocean Road World Class Tourism Investment Study, A Product Gap Audit, p.13, 46, 2011 28 Urban Enterprise, Tourism Greater Geelong and the Bellarine, Geelong and The Bellarine Tourism Development Plan, p.56, 2019-22

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85. In my view, the proposed development at CORA would assist in meeting some of the gap in forecast room provision.

T15. ACCOMMODATION PROPOSALS

No. of Name Overview Location Region Status rooms/units Potential development of an Port Campbell integrated resort on a strategic Site zoned and West Resort site to the west of Port Port Great Ocean NA awaiting Accommodation Campbell. Features may Campbell Road investment. Site include hotel, restaurant and eco-accommodation. Development of a rural education and retreat centre ay Wattle Hill Farm near Moonlight Head moonlight head. Key features Moonlight Great Ocean Master Plan Rural Education NA including a chapel, educational Head Road complete and Retreat Centre hub, student accommodation, retreat, staff accommodation, eco-tourism accommodation. Integrated eco-tourism facility Princetown Eco (hotel, group accommodation, Great Ocean 20 cabins + 20 Permit Princetown Tourism Resort restaurant and pleasure boat Road room eco lodge Approved facility). The 12 Apostles Hot Springs and Resort is a proposal which 12 Apostles Hot 150 eco- includes a natural geothermal Port Great Ocean Awaiting Springs and accommodation spa facility, diner, restaurant, Campbell Road Investment Resort rooms café, public amphitheatre and 150 eco-accommodation pods. A $70 million resort development proposed for Apollo Bay hinterland includes Great Ocean 180 rooms + 82 Permit Apollo Bay Resort Apollo Bay 180 rooms, 82 villas, a wellness Road villas Refused* centre, pool, bar and restaurants. Barnes Capital proposed $60 Application Great Ocean Torquay Hotel million 128-room hotel in Torquay 128 rooms rejected in May Road Torquay. 2019

Geelong Provision for a 4-star hotel of at Geelong Geelong and Convention and least 200 rooms as part of the (urban The 200 Project Funded. Exhibition Centre complex. area) Bellarine $150 million mixed-use project in Geelong, which is set to include a $75 million Holiday Geelong Geelong and Under Holiday Inn Inn & Suites - being the first in (urban The 180 bed hotel construction. Australia and the largest new area) Bellarine hotel project in the region in almost 20 years. Source: Urban Enterprise, 2019 – information sourced from various online sources. *Planning permit rejected by Minister for Planning, January 2019

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5.5. CONCLUSIONS REGARDING ACCOMMODATION DEMAND AND SUPPLY 86. I have summarised the key findings relevant to the supply and demand for accommodation as it relates to the CORA proposal below: a. I find that there is strong policy support for the establishment of quality commercial accommodation in the Great Ocean Road and the Geelong and Bellarine tourism regions. b. Below, I have summarised the relevant points relevant to demand for accommodation: i. Commercial accommodation (establishments with over 10 rooms) has been performing well in Geelong and the Bellarine in terms of occupancies (80%) and average daily rates ($173), suggesting strong demand for investment in commercial accommodation in this region. ii. Commercial accommodation (establishments with over 10 rooms) performance in the Great Ocean Road region has also performed satisfactorily, however, has experienced lower occupancies (64%) compared to the Geelong and Bellarine region (80%), which is likely a reflection of the proportionate supply of accommodation by type currently available. iii. Growth in visitation is expected to lead to increased demand for commercial accommodation including a forecast requirement of between 3,394 – 4,458 in the Great Ocean Road region and between 1,175 and 2,409 rooms in the Greater Geelong and Bellarine region. c. Based on existing research, I provide the following findings in relation to accommodation supply: i. There is a supply of approximately 14,852 commercial accommodation rooms across the Great Ocean Road region (9,262 rooms) and Geelong and Bellarine region (5,590 rooms). ii. A high proportion of accommodation supply in the Great Ocean Road region consists of self-contained accommodation units, hotels and/or resort accommodation. iii. There is an undersupply of 4.5 to 5 star branded hotel and resort accommodation in the Great Ocean Road region. iv. Across the Greater Geelong and the Bellarine Tourism Region there is a high proportion of self-contained units, hotel/motel accommodation and cabin accommodation at caravan/tourist parks. However, there is a clear lack of quality resort accommodation in the Geelong and Bellarine region. v. I note that there are a number of accommodation proposals (at various stages of planning and development) in both regions. The proposed supply, however, is not adequate to cater to forecast commercial room demand (catering to between 14% and 21% of forecast demand).

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d. In light of the above, I provide the following findings in relation to the suitability of the proposed accommodation at CORA: i. The proposal for a high-quality integrated resort, including a mix of accommodation typologies (hotel and eco-lodges) will meet an identified accommodation market gap for both tourism regions. ii. The scale of the development is appropriate and will contribute to meeting some of the supply ‘gap’ in commercial accommodation in both regions.

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6. SUBMISSIONS

87. In response to the exhibition of Amendment C125 (Cape Otway Road Australia), 245 submissions were received by the Cape Otway Road Australia Advisory Committee. 2 of these submissions were incorrectly submitted and then resubmitted. A further 4 late submissions and one updated submission were received and forwarded to me by Planning and Property Partners on 24th December 2019. 88. Of the 249 submissions, 136 opposed the proposal, 93 submissions support the proposal, 16 submissions support the proposal subject to conditions and 4 submissions were not relevant or applicable because they were asking questions or were not relevant to the amendment.

T16. NUMBER OF SUBMISSIONS RECEIVED BY TYPE

Type Number of Submissions Opposed 136 Supports 93 Supports subject to conditions 16 N/A 4 Total 249 Source: Urban Enterprise, 2019. 89. Of the 249 submissions, I have assessed that 176 relate to economic and/or tourism related matters. My assessment is that 87 of these submissions are opposed to the proposal, 84 are in support of the proposal and 5 are supportive subject to conditions as outlined in Table T16. 90. I have summarised the submissions that relate to economic impact or tourism matters at Appendix C. This includes my responses to each of the submissions that oppose the proposal.

T17. NUMBER OF ECONOMIC / TOURISM RELATED SUBMISSIONS IN SUPPORT OR OPPOSING AMENDMENT C125

Supports subject to Opposed Supports Total conditions Number of Submissions 87 84 5 176 Source: Urban Enterprise, 2019. 91. I summarise the main themes of the 87 submissions opposed to the proposal on economic and/or tourism grounds as follows: a. The proposal is not viable or needed; b. The business case is outdated and the proposal has changed since it was prepared; c. There is no justification or need for the accommodation components; d. The sports facilities will duplicate existing and proposed facilities; e. The proposal will adversely impact existing child-care facilities;

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f. The proposal will have limited or no community benefits; g. The proposal will impact existing retail and tourism businesses in surrounding towns; h. The proposal will not provide employment for local residents. 92. I summarise the main themes of the 84 submissions supporting the proposal on economic and/or tourism grounds as follows: a. The proposal will create employment for the local area and region; b. The proposal will attract international visitors. It will assist in increasing the number of international visitors to the region including elite sports visitors and visitors from China; c. The proposal will provide much-needed accommodation in the region; d. The proposal will have significant economic benefits for the region, including employment and flow on economic benefits from construction and operation; e. The proposal will have significant tourism benefits for the region, including providing an iconic tourist attraction, increased visitation, increased length of stay, increased visitor expenditure, broadening of market segments visiting the region and encouraging dispersal of tourists through the region; f. The proposal will promote tourism to the region, provide opportunities to showcase local tourism product, facilitate branding of the region as a food and wine tourism destination and create a destination for visitors to the region. 93. My responses to the themes of those submissions opposing the proposal are as follows: a. The proposal is not viable or needed. The Ernst and Young Business Case for the proposal demonstrates that the project would be viable. I have reviewed the business case and updated it to exclude the components that have since been removed from the proposal, primarily the wave pool. My assessment is that the methodology adopted for the business case is sound and the conclusions are valid. Whilst the economic benefits will be reduced as a result of removing the wave pool, the project will still have significant economic and tourism benefits for the region, as outlined in my evidence. b. The business case is outdated and the proposal has changed since it was prepared. My assessment updates the economic impacts outlined in the business case as a result of changes to the proposal, primarily the removal of the wave pool. c. There is no justification or need for the accommodation components. My evidence clearly demonstrates that there is significant demand for additional accommodation in the region and this is supported by a number of strategic assessments undertaken over recent years. The proposal will meet existing market gaps in accommodation in the region. Furthermore, the proposal itself, principally the elite sports hub will create its own demand for accommodation, which will add to the overall accommodation needs in the region. d. The sports facilities will duplicate existing and proposed facilities. The Ernst and Young Business Case for the proposal demonstrates that the project would be viable. The elite sports hub is expected to target international athletes and their support teams, as

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well as national athletes/teams and Melbourne/regionally based athletes and teams. The proposal to accommodate this facility within a fully integrated rural resort setting cannot be compared to facilities at Deakin University. e. The proposal will adversely impact existing child-care facilities. The priority of the child care centre is to support the needs of staff working on site who require these facilities as outlined in the Draft Management Plan prepared by Tract, December 2019. I would expect that athletes and support teams travelling with children would also utilise the child care facilities. Consequently, I consider the impact on the existing child care facility in Winchelsea will be limited, albeit the Draft Management Plan states that spare capacity in the facility will be available to the public. f. The proposal will have limited or no community benefits. My evidence concludes there will be significant economic and tourism benefits of the proposal for the region. g. The proposal will impact existing retail and tourism businesses in surrounding towns. My evidence concludes the impact on existing businesses in surrounding towns will be marginal. I consider that the proposal will substantially add to the visitor base in the region and will encourage visitors to CORA to explore the surrounding area which will benefit existing businesses in the surrounding towns. h. The proposal will not provide employment for local residents. My evidence concludes that direct employment from the ongoing operation of CORA will generate between 99 and 117 jobs. Obviously employment is merit-based, but a range of job types would be required at CORA, some of which could suit local residents. Nevertheless, I consider that it is highly likely that most, if not all, jobs would be sourced from residents of the region or the adjoining Geelong/Bellarine region.

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7. CONCLUSIONS

94. My conclusions in respect of the proposed Amendment C125 Surf Coast Cape Otway Road Australia are as follows: a. The estimated economic impact of the CORA proposal is significant, in terms of direct and indirect economic output and the creation of jobs for the region, both through the construction and ongoing operational phases of the project; b. The estimated economic impacts as outlined in the EY business case are conservative and most likely understated; c. Any negative impact of the retail components of the CORA proposal on existing businesses is likely to be marginal, and following ramp up of the operational phase, it is expected that CORA will provide a new and increased visitor base for these existing businesses; d. There are significant gaps in tourist accommodation in both the Great Ocean Road Region and the Geelong and The Bellarine Region, in terms of the amount of commercial tourist accommodation required and the type of accommodation that is needed. The CORA proposal will make a contribution to meeting these significant gaps, in terms of the amount and the type of accommodation proposed.

DECLARATION I have made all the inquiries that I believe are desirable and appropriate and that no matters of significance which I regard as relevant have to my knowledge been withheld from the Panel.

Matt J Ainsaar Managing Director, Urban Enterprise Pty Ltd BTRP, Grad Dip Prop, MAPI, FAPI, CDP

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APPENDICES

APPENDIX A REQUIREMENTS OF PLANNING PANELS VICTORIA – EXPERT EVIDENCE

NAME: Matt Jacques Ainsaar, Managing Director, Urban Enterprise

ADDRESS: Level 1, 302-304 Barkly Street, Brunswick, Victoria, 3056

QUALIFICATIONS: • Bachelor of Town and Regional Planning, University of Melbourne • Graduate Diploma of Property, RMIT University • Professional Affiliations: Member, Planning Institute of Australia • Member, Victorian Planning and Environmental Law Association • Fellow, Australian Property Institute

EXPERIENCE I have more than 40 years’ experience as a planner and land economist and have extensive expertise in tourism assessments and economic impact assessments over the past 30 years. I have appeared as an expert witness at Planning Panel hearings and VCAT hearings for both developers and Councils in respect of economic and tourism issues associated with planning applications and planning scheme amendments.

AREAS OF EXPERTISE Areas of expertise include strategic urban planning, development contributions, land economics, property and tourism planning.

EXPERTISE TO PREPARE THIS REPORT I have a track record over 30 years of successfully preparing economic impact assessments and tourism assessments for both Councils and developers/owners. I am therefore qualified to prepare this report and expert witness statement.

INSTRUCTIONS My written instructions from PPP, dated 1 November 2019, as they relate to Amendment C125 Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) were as follows: 95. “Review the material provided to you and following engagement prepare an expert witness statement in respect to the CORA development proposal and C125, which:

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a. Provides an independent review of the Cape Otway Road Australia Business Case prepared by Ernst & Young and the September 2019 Economic Assessment prepared by Urban Enterprise having regard to the current CORA development proposal; b. provides an independent ‘first principles’ analysis of accommodation supply and demand trends as relevant to the proposal; c. provides an independent ‘first principles’ analysis in relation to any aspect of the proposal you consider necessary to form your overall opinion; d. considers your own opinions, within the limits of your expertise, with respect to the economic benefits of proposed development; e. considers your own opinions, within the limits of your expertise, in relation to any economic and retail impact of the proposed development; and f. provides a response to any submissions received from other parties arising from public exhibition, as relevant.”

FACTS, MATTERS AND ASSUMPTIONS RELIED UPON: I have relied on the following for my assessment: a. 10 Connies Lane Title; b. 50 Connies Lane Title; c. 155 Batsons Rd Title; d. 1300 Cape Otway Rd Title; e. 1280-1320 Cape Otway Rd Title; f. 1300 Cape Otway Rd Title; g. 1340 Cape Otway Rd Title; h. Surf Coast Planning Scheme Amendment C125 Explanatory Report, October 2019; i. Surf Coast Planning Scheme Amendment C125 Draft Instruction Sheet, October 2019; j. Proposed Schedule 3 to Clause 37.02 Comprehensive Development Zone, Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA); k. Surf Coast Planning Scheme Amendment C125 Comprehensive Development Zone Map (Part of Planning Scheme maps 10 and 26); l. Proposed Clause 21.01 Municipal Strategic Statement; m. Proposed Clause 21.04 Tourism; n. Proposed Clause 21.06 Rural Landscape; o. Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) Elite Sports Training facility, Accommodation and Retail Village in the Surf Coast, Victoria Business Case, prepared by Ernst & Young (EY) on behalf of the Department of Regional Development Victoria, 1 January 2018;

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p. Cape Otway Road Australia Community and Stakeholder Engagement Findings, Final Report, prepared by Capire Consulting Group, 31 January 2018; q. Cape Otway Road and Connies Lane Modewarre Geotechnical Investigation, prepared by A.S. Hames Pty Ltd, 28 November 2017; r. Phase I Site History Assessment Cape Otway Road, Batsons Road and Modewarre VIC, prepared by Compass Environmental, 7 March 2018; s. Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA), Cape Otway Road, Modewarre, Victoria: Desktop Cultural Heritage Assessment, prepared by Ecology and Heritage Partners Pty Ltd 14 May 2018; t. Land Capability Assessment for Sustainable Irrigation of Recycled Water at the CORA development in Modewarre for Out Task Environmental, prepared by Ag Challenge Consulting, August 2018; u. Cape Otway Road Australia: Waste Water Treatment and Recycled Water Land Capability Assessment Overview, prepared by Out Task Environmental, 2 August 2019; v. Concept Masterplan CORA – Cape Otway Road Australia, Tract, 18 December 2018; w. Final Landscape Masterplan CORA – Cape Otway Road Australia, Tract, 18 December 2018; x. Precinct Plan CORA – Cape Otway Road Australia, Tract, 18 December 2018; y. Technical Memorandum: Acoustic Review Re: Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) prepared by Enfield Acoustics Pty Ltd, 27 August 2019; z. Cape Otway Road Australia Economic Assessment, prepared by Urban Enterprise 11 September 2019; aa. CORA (Cape Otway Road Australia) Infrastructure Servicing Report, prepared by SMEC, September 2019; bb. Agricultural Land Quality Assessment, CORA – Cape Otway Road Modewarre Victoria, prepared by Phillips Agribusiness, September 2019; cc. Traffic Engineering Assessment CORA – Cape Otway Road Australia at Cape Otway Road and Connies Lane, Modewarre, prepared by TraffixGroup, August 2019; dd. Bushfire Development Report for the rezoning and subsequent development of an elite sports and tourism facility at ‘CORA’ Cape Otway Road, Modewarre VIC 3240, prepared by Terramatrix, September 2019; ee. Flood Report Cape Otway Road Australia, prepared by Water Technology, September 2019; ff. Cape Otway Road Australia Project – Social Impact Assessment, prepared by K2 Planning, September 2019; gg. Integrated Water Management Plan, Cape Otway Road Australia, prepared by Water Technology, 18 September 2019;

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hh. Biodiversity Assessment; Cape Otway Road, Australia, prepared by Ecology and Heritage Partners Pty Ltd, September 2019; ii. Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) Baseline Landscape and Visual Values Study, prepared by Tract, 20 September 2019; jj. Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) Town Planning Report, prepared by Tract, 20 September 2019; kk. Cape Otway Road Australia Comprehensive Development Plan, prepared by Tract, 17 September 2019; ll. Visitor and accommodation forecast Great Ocean Road, Deloitte Access Economics, September 2018; mm. Surf Coast Shire Visitor Insights 2018, Surf Coast Shire; nn. Regional Tourism Review, Discussion Paper, July 2019; oo. Strategic Masterplan for the Great Ocean Road Region Visitor Economy 2015 to 2015; pp. Great Ocean Road Regional Tourism Submission to Regional Tourism Review, prepared August 2019; qq. 2019 Priority Projects, G21 Regional Plan Implementation, prepared by G21 Geelong Region Alliance, October 2019; rr. Geelong and Bellarine Tourism Development Plan 2019 to 2022, prepared by Urban Enterprise, February 2019; ss. Development Advisory Committee Stage 1 Report, Cape Otway Road Australia 17 August 2019; tt. Cape Otway Road Australia Development Advisory Committee Terms of Reference; and uu. Submission to Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment – Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA), Modewarre, Agenda – Ordinary Council Meeting, Surf Coast Shire Council, 26 November 2019.

DOCUMENTS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT: See above.

IDENTITY OF PERSONS UNDERTAKING THE WORK: Matt J Ainsaar, Managing Director, assisted by: Todd Ainsaar, Director – tourism accommodation Jonathan Rochwerger, Senior Associate/Economist – economic modelling.

SUMMARY OF OPINIONS: Refer to Section 7: Conclusions.

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APPENDIX B PROPOSED CHANGES TO CORA PROPOSAL BETWEEN ERNST & YOUNG BUSINESS CASE AND EXHIBITED PROPOSAL Table 1

Exhibited CORA Proposal – September 2019 TRACT Concept Masterplan (Ver_15) The Retail and Tourism Precinct • a hotel • a sculpture park • a design studio • an art gallery • shops • food and drink premises • a childcare centre • a distribution Centre; and • a microbrewery. The Elite Sports Precinct • outdoor sports fields: o 2 AFL ovals. o 2 soccer tablets. o 6 tennis courts. • a gymnasium • indoor training facilities • an indoor swimming pool • a media centre • a sports science hub • a wellness centre; and • staff accommodation. The Accommodation Precinct • 61 eco lodges; • a wastewater treatment facility; and • substation.

The Rural Conservation Precinct • floodplain wetlands to be restored; and • an organic farm and manager’s residence.

Table 2

EY Business Case (Option 1) – November Current Proposal – exhibited September 2017 2019 TRACT Concept Masterplan (Ver_07) TRACT Concept Masterplan (Ver_15) Accommodation • Hotel (128 Rooms) • Retained, but relocated to the southeast • 48 rural residential lots • Removed • 22 eco-lodges • Increased to 61 and relocated to north- eastern portion of the site • 15 lakeside surf eco-lodges • Removed

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• Staff accommodation • Retained • 6 caretaker dwellings • Removed • Manager’s residence • Retained Elite Sports & Training • MCG oval • Retained & additional AFL oval added • Soccer pitches • Retained • Cricket field • Retained on AFL oval • Rugby pitch • Retained within AFL oval

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• Tennis courts • Retained • Aquatic centre • Retained • Indoor sports hall • Retained • Gymnasium • Retained • Athletics track • Removed • Beach volleyball sandpit • Removed • Cycling paths • Removed • Running and fitness paths • Removed • Media centre • Retained • Sports science hub • Retained • Wave pool • Removed • Wellness centre • Retained, but relocated to the southeast Retail & Commercial • Food & beverage • Retained (area reduced) • Shops • Retained (area reduced) • Art gallery • Retained • Sculpture park • Retained, but relocated to southwestern portion of the site. • Microbrewery • Retained • Design studio • Retained • Distribution centre • Retained • Childcare centre • Retained Conservation area • Wetland conservation area • Retained and increased in size Other • Helipad • Removed • Wastewater Treatment Plant added to accommodation precinct in north- eastern portion of the site. • Organic farm • Retained, but relocated to 50 Connies Lane (not previously part of CORA) and reduced in size. • Depot • Retained

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APPENDIX C SUMMARY OF SUBMISSIONS TO AMENDMENT RELATING TO ECONOMIC IMPACT AND TOURISM MATTERS

Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? It is most likely that the labour force will be drawn from the local area and surrounding region. The retail assessment indicates States jobs will not be for locals and that the development will not be that the retail and hospitality components 5 Opposed Yes accessible to locals. Questions how the retail shops proposed will make Economic Impact will be viable. The elite sports hub will money. provide a baseload of customer demand for these facilities, supplemented by tourists passing through and staying overnight. 6 Supports Yes Believes that it is great for the area and jobs for the community Economic Impact The retail component includes the States that the development is not related to agri-food or agritourism. States opportunity to showcase local produce. that the development would be better suited to a town or on a highway such Economic Impact, 8 Opposed Yes The food and beverage outlets also provide as in Geelong or Colac. Believes it does not provide the type of tourism that Tourism the opportunity for the use of local is preferred in region i.e. 'country living style of tourism'. produce on the menu. The retail assessment concludes that the States that local businesses will be impacted with the development taking impact on existing local businesses will be customers from existing small shops such as the Moriac Shop or Ravens Economic Impact, marginal. The proposal will attract visitors 10 Opposed Yes Creek. Identifies that the development will aid the economy and bring more Tourism that currently do not visit the region, which tourists to the area but will harm the environment. in turn will benefit the local businesses in surrounding towns. The proposal will provide hospitality services that will be used by locals but 11 Opposed Yes States locals would drive to Waurn Ponds if want shopping and a coffee Tourism these are predominately aimed at visitors to the site and to the region. States the proposal will have state, regional and local benefits including Economic Impact, 12 Supports Yes attracting international visitors. Other benefits include economic, social and Tourism environmental.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? States proposal is not in line with branding or style of tourism for the See response to submission 10. My hinterland region. States that CORA is larger than retail precincts in modified economic assessment based on Winchelsea and Moriac, will monopolise retail in the area and will threaten 14 Opposed Yes Economic Impact the business case indicates that the the economic growth and function of surrounding community centres and proposal will generate between 99 and 117 replicates products and services already available. Questions employment ongoing jobs. opportunities for the local community. Questions the need for the facility. My accommodation assessment clearly 17 Opposed Yes Does not believe that the accommodation precinct is appropriate or needed Accommodation indicates that there is a need for additional accommodation in the region. 19 Opposed Yes Identifies that farming land will be lost Economic Impact Identifies there is employment opportunities associated with the 20 Supports Yes Economic Impact development 23 Supports Yes States that the development will give locals the ability to work and live here. Economic Impact I assume that infrastructure required to Believes there will be a rise in tax for a bitumen road that don’t want and 25 Opposed Yes Economic Impact support the development would be funded can’t afford by the development. I assume that staff would be employed on Questions if locals will be given preference for arising employment 26 Opposed Yes Economic Impact merits, but clearly there are advantages in opportunities. employing people who live close by. Believes will have benefits however roads must transport surrounding the 27 Supports Yes Economic Impact See response to submission 25. precinct must also be upgraded. Believes that the proposal well provide accommodation that is currently Accommodation, lacking across the Great Ocean Road. In addition believes that the retail 28 Supports Yes Economic Impact, stores will attract further visitors and local businesses will benefit. Also Tourism states that the development will generate employment. 29 Supports Yes States the proposal will generate community benefits including tourism. Tourism Identifies that the Government has given money to Deakin Uni to upgrade 31 Opposed Yes Economic Impact elite training facilities. Questions why you would destroy rural farm land.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related?

States that CORA will have a range of economic benefits. States that CORA will support growth in visitors to the region, particularly from China. Identifies other benefits to include opening new commercial opportunities Economic Impact, 32 Supports Yes between Asia and Victoria in sport, tourism and agribusiness, provide new Tourism employment opportunities and innovative business development. Also states that CORA will provide basis for significant growth in international sporting activity and sport related tourism.

States that the unique project will attract visitors to the region and the 33 Supports Yes Tourism benefits of tourism can be more evenly distributed. Questions the financial viability of the project and the cost to taxpayers. The business case shows that the project Opposes the initial state expenditure of $30 million. Questions the number of would be viable. The elite sports hub is visitors which will visit the site and surrounding area. Identifies that Deakin 34 Opposed Yes Economic Impact aimed at elite athletes, including University (10 minute drive) has sporting facilities already. Identifies that the international athletes, for extended periods facilities seem to put at risk a major association with Deakin University as a of training and recovery. partner. Opposes proposal however states that the some of the proposed CORA The proposal integrates a number of ideas may be suitable (small, boutique food and drink experiences) but mutually supporting components, including overall the scale of the project does not fit in with the needs or wants of the 36 Opposed Yes Economic Impact accommodation, retail, hospitality, community. States that the large hotel, retail complex and housing wellness and elite sports hub, to attract development are unsuitable. Acknowledges that the Surf Coast Hinterland elite athletes and visitors to the region. has a role to play in the local economy. Supports Can see positives including employment opportunities for the small 38 subject to Yes Economic Impact community. conditions Believes that the proposal will have positive impact upon tourism to the 39 Supports Yes region and is of scale that will be of major economic significance in the Economic Impact region. Believes proposal will provide ongoing employment opportunities both during 40 Supports Yes Economic Impact construction and operation States owner just wants to make money and there is no other reason for the 41 Opposed Yes development - states that it will fail if approved. States Deakin has the sport Economic Impact See response to submission 34. venues and accommodation required for the region.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? States the proposal is not needed, do not want to pay for it and that it 42 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See response to submissions 17 and 34. doesn’t have the infrastructure. The business case sets out the economic 43 Opposed Yes States there will be no benefit to the community Economic Impact and tourism benefits of the proposal. 44 Supports Yes States that CORA will provide employment opportunities Economic Impact 45 Supports Yes Believes proposal will have economic benefit. Economic Impact Believes the project will have community benefits and note the possibility of 46 Supports Yes Economic Impact presentations from world class athletes and coaches during their visits. Believes that the development will have an adverse impact upon their farm Economic Impact, 47 Opposed Yes and will negatively impact tourism further down the Coast through the loss See response to submission 17. Tourism of bed occupancy and tourist dollar. Believes that it will be a drawcard for tourism but for local residents. States Economic Impact, 49 Supports Yes that the proposal offers employment opportunities to locals. Tourism Will promote tourism, particularly in the Hinterland in comparison to Surf / Otway coastline. Also states that will provide employment / job market Economic Impact, 50 Supports Yes participation for an increasing local population, will create development with Tourism positive socio-economic legacies. Believes will bring jobs to the area and will be a connection between Geelong 51 Supports Yes Economic Impact and Melbourne. Will have flow on effect to the local economy. Will provide employment opportunities and will led to benefit from tourism Economic Impact, 52 Supports Yes generated. Tourism States the development will undermine the region and have serious impact My assessment indicates that there will be on the natural environmental, cultural and economic values of the region. Economic Impact, 54 Opposed Yes substantial positive economic and tourism Does not believe athletes would travel to CORA. Believes that the existing Tourism benefits for the region. infrastructure will not be able to service the increased tourism visitors. 56 Supports Yes States the development will support growth and development of the region. Economic Impact 57 Supports Yes States the development will provide people employment opportunities. Economic Impact 58 Opposed Yes Location inappropriate Economic Impact 59 Supports Yes States will generate employment opportunities Economic Impact States will impact local small business, believes if developer cannot self-fund 60 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See response to submission 10. the project then it should not proceed.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? Believes the location of the development is wrong in a quiet farming 62 Opposed Yes Economic Impact community. Opposed to the future subdivision of farmland and outlines belief that many of the diverse uses proposed are unlikely to succeed or be constructed. Economic Impact, The business case demonstrates that the 63 Opposed Yes Believe will compromise agricultural activities and have adverse effects on Tourism project would be viable. nearby farmland. Will encourage tourists to visit the region and states local businesses will be Economic Impact, 64 Supports Yes promoted within the proposed retail and tourism village. Tourism 65 Supports Yes States that the project can offer to the tourism economy of Victoria. Tourism 67 Supports Yes States will have community benefits. Economic Impact Identifies that the development will generate local employment and business Supports opportunities which is highly likely to have a positive flow on effect to 68 subject to Yes Economic Impact Moriac. States government funding ($29 million) should be spent on conditions infrastructure. 69 Supports Yes States will have community benefits Economic Impact 71 Supports Yes Offers employment opportunities Economic Impact States visitors will stimulate the local economy and also enhance the Economic Impact, 72 Supports Yes probability of other destinations being visited. Believes that tourism to the Tourism region will become destination based rather than transient.

73 Supports Yes Provide employment and career opportunities to the local community. Economic Impact

Does not believe will be a viable venture - identifies there are facilities located at Deakin University Waurn Ponds and at the Geelong Football Club. Believes 74 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See response to submissions 34 and 54. it is a money making exercise and "back door entry to subdivision with no benefit to the community, Will allow people to travel and stay longer with the focus being on local Economic Impact, 76 Supports Yes producers in the retail and tourism village. Led to overall positive community Tourism impact. Believes that CORA has potential to contribute to the economic future of the 77 Supports Yes Economic Impact region. States will provide employment in an appropriate setting and that the 78 Supports Yes Economic Impact commercial aspects seem to have been treated in a sympathetic manner.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? Identifies that the CORA development sounds wonderful but also states the 80 Opposed Yes proposal is located on agricultural land. Believes CORA is located in the Economic Impact wrong place. Believes proposal will deliver hundreds of jobs both during construction and Economic Impact, 81 Supports Yes operation. Will provide an alternative tourist facility and will benefit the local Tourism community. Need for developer contributions. States that the strategic justification relies 82 Opposed Yes on tourism, and states that any tourism aspects of CORA are minor in Tourism See response to submission 54. context. Creates no meaningful skilled jobs and has no benefit. Will negatively impact upon the transport connector of existing businesses (predominantly agricultural). The retail, tourism and hotel precinct will negatively impact upon local businesses in surrounding areas including Moriac and Winchelsea. Identifies that tourists and day-trippers are unlikely to stop at Moriac. Questions how tenants at CORA will survive over quiet months. No demonstrated need for additional hotel style beds in the hinterland area. Accommodation, Questions the childcare centre and if places to be available will be filled. See responses to submission 10, 14, 17, 86 Opposed Yes Economic Impact, States that the development is likely to on create low skilled, low paid 34, 54. Tourism seasonal retail and cleaning jobs. Also identifies construction jobs are likely to be filled by existing Multiplex employees. Identifies there is no demand for additional housing in the area and local infrastructure is insufficient to meet current demand. States that an internationally accredited elite sports facility, covering a broader range of sports than CORA is located at Deakin University. States there are wellness facilities and gyms located throughout Geelong, Torquay, Winchelsea and the Great Ocean Road. Does not see any community or financial benefit and is not in the correct 87 Opposed Yes location which is farming land. Concerned about the staging of the proposal Economic Impact See response to submission 54. (i.e. houses first). Concerned if the project fails the land will be subdivided. Opposed 88 subject to Yes Questions the business sustainability of the project. Economic Impact See response to submission 63. conditions Unclear about what the final proposal may be and has concerns about the 89 Opposed Yes development alongside sensitive wetlands in an area which is valuable Economic Impact productive farmland.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? Questions community benefits, concerned about if employment 90 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See responses to submission 5, 14 and 54. opportunities will be provided to locals. States the proposal will be a great asset to the region and tourism infrastructure. States that the proposal will boost the supply of tourism Accommodation, 91 Supports Yes accommodation on the coast which is needed. Believes it will provide Economic Impact, economic benefit to the local community and international visitors would Tourism benefit from its proximity to the Great Ocean Road.

States that the proposal will provide much needed infrastructure to promote 92 Supports Yes Tourism the region to international visitors.

States the accommodation will be available to athletes and the general Accommodation, 93 Supports Yes public which will support local and regional tourism. Will provide economic Economic Impact, benefits including the creation of hundreds of jobs. Tourism States will be good for tourism and provide jobs. Will have significant Economic Impact, 94 Supports Yes economic benefit. Tourism

Believes will be a spectacular development for the Geelong region and put 95 Supports Yes Economic Impact Geelong on the international map for sports.

96 Opposed Yes Questions the need for CORA Economic Impact See response to submission 17 and 34. 98 Opposed Yes Questions cost to build facility Economic Impact See response to submission 34. Will provide ongoing employment opportunities which will spin off to local 99 Supports Yes Economic Impact communities. States will be beneficial for tourism, employment and Geelong locals. The Economic Impact, 100 Supports Yes retail shops will provide move convenient retail shops. Would add to the Tourism development and growth of the region. Will be an addition to the tourism sector on the Great Ocean Road and 101 Supports Yes believes Victoria needs new developments to compete nationally and Tourism internationally. My assessment confirms the validity of the 102 Opposed Yes Questions the business case Economic Impact business case and its conclusions. 104 Supports Yes Will bring opportunities to the area. Economic Impact 105 Supports Yes Will create progress and local opportunities. Economic Impact

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? States local people are unlikely to use the facility. States that the area is not Economic Impact, 107 Opposed Yes See response to submission 63. suitable for tourist buses / coaches etc. Tourism Believe there will be an upskilling or direct involvement and indirect 111 Supports Yes Economic Impact involvement in the project.

States the proposal will be fantastic their club and community and would 112 Supports Yes Economic Impact help the club recruit and retain players.

States will have large economic benefit to the region and will create jobs Economic Impact, 113 Supports Yes both during construction and ongoing operations. Will promote the region Tourism and tourist attractions. States will have large economic benefit to the region and will create jobs Economic Impact, 114 Supports Yes both during construction and ongoing operations. Will promote the region Tourism and tourist attractions. Believes cost to the local area and its inhabitants outweighs the local 115 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See response to submission 54. benefits. States that CORA will benefit tourism in the region by attracting and servicing new markets, meet growing market demand, increase dispersal into the region's hinterland, defuse the primary visitor journey, supports 116 Supports Yes Tourism diversification of the tourism product offer and supports meeting the region's visitor economy objectives of increasing the length of stay, dispersal, expenditure and yield. States that the proposal does not offer any attraction to Great Ocean Road visitors as does not offer natural environment or man-made historic sites (which are the most popular destinations on the Great Ocean Road). Also lacks any boutique food production the site or the land which is the second See response to submissions 17, 34, 54, 117 Opposed Yes most successful drawcard for Great Ocean Road tourists. Does not see why Tourism 63. visitors would stay in Modewarre overnight. Believes the wetland should be protected and promoted as visitors to the region like nature. Does not believe the project has economic substance and should not be financially supported by the Government.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? Identifies that the CORA proposal has potential to stimulate the local and regional economy. States Council considers that the proposal has potential Supports to bring additional tourism product and increased employment opportunities Economic Impact, 119 subject to Yes to the Surf Coast and acknowledges the economic benefit that the facility Tourism conditions could bring to the region. Based on the economic assessment undertaken by Urban Enterprise states that the retail impact on tourism related retailers in Torquay, Winchelsea is low and less in Moriac. States that the proposal will have a negative impact upon the Moriac general 120 Opposed Yes store which relies on locals and travellers. States that the store is likely to Economic Impact See response to submission 10. close due to the increased retail at CORA. States that CORA will have positive impact upon Moriac and will provide 121 Supports Yes Tourism 'much needed' tourism dollars. States the proposal provides needed infrastructure for Victoria and will 123 Supports Yes Economic Impact compliment and enhance the region. Questions if the proposal will create jobs and increase more visitors to retailers in Winchelsea and Moriac. Questions how CORA will compete with 125 Opposed Yes the Boral redevelopment plan at Waurn Ponds which will provide new Economic Impact See response to submission 10, 13 and 34. employment area and commercial precinct. States will duplicate existing world class facilities at Deakin University. Identifies that the proposal is aligned with the Victorian Visitor Economy Strategy. States it will provide an iconic attraction that support the changing 126 Supports Yes visitor economy of Victoria and the Great Ocean Road. It will grow Victoria's Tourism sporting reputation and provide an alternative journey to the Great Ocean Road - aligning with market needs of global travellers. 128 Supports Yes States will support the local economy. Economic Impact States that the development is out of place for the area (as it is a farming 129 Opposed Yes community) and that world class elite sporting facilities are available at Economic Impact See response to submission 34. Deakin University which is close to transport and accommodation. States CORA has poor accessibility to user groups and an unproven business model which cannot guarantee success. States the development shadows and out scales every other business and activity centre in the area. 130 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See response to submission 17, 34 and 54. States that the development 'robs' the local community of opportunities to develop small scale privately owned and operated businesses. Believes the proposal will not capture and retain visitors with too many options and

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? extreme level of competition for the market. No proven need for the residential development.

131 Supports Yes States the development will provide construction employment. Economic Impact

States the development will contribute to the economic transformation of the 132 Supports Yes Greater Geelong region. States the model is inclusive of wider community Economic Impact interests and future growth.

Believes that the proposal will create economic benefits and offers an opportunity to capitalise on the economic benefits of tourism in the Great Ocean Road region and will market Australia. Will further promote tourism Economic Impact, 133 Supports Yes and accommodation which are identified to be drivers of the local economy. Tourism Will create short term construction jobs and longer term tourism related jobs. Will bring tourism to the area and jobs to locals. Also believes that the Economic Impact, 134 Supports Yes accommodation will support surrounding areas at peak times Tourism Supports Believes development will bring opportunities to the region but is located on 135 subject to Yes Economic Impact viable agricultural land and therefore in the wrong spot. conditions Questions if the project is necessary and may become only a hotel if the sports complex is dropped as only raises 10% of revenue from the proposal. 136 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See response to submission 17, 34 and 54. States Deakin have just finished the construction of a high ends sport complex and another is planned / approved. States that the project will generate job opportunities amongst the local 138 Supports Yes Economic Impact community and will provide them with work locally not currently available. See response to submission 17, 25, 34 and 139 Opposed Yes Duplication of existing facilities available at Deakin University in Geelong. Economic Impact 54.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? States that the tourism development has not been proven to be of State or National significance and has no proven business model. Questions the economic sustainability of the project. Questions if jobs required will meet the availability and suitability of the local employment market, believes cost of upgrades to infrastructure should not be meet by tax payer dollars, believes the accessibility to the niche market is poor and limiting and therefore questions the sustainability of financial success. Believes agricultural land should be protected as the hinterland area is highly productive and agriculture contributes significantly to the local economy. Economic Impact, 140 Opposed Yes States that shifting the tourism market focus away from local produce will Tourism have negative impact and believes that the proposal is not in line with current tourism trends. Believes that local land use prices will be impacted by the proposal and that local businesses and townships (Modewarre and Winchelsea) will be adversely impacted due to visitors going to CORA rather than stopping the towns. Questions the sustainability and viability of the proposal. Questions the chosen site and outlines the facility will duplicate facilities available in Geelong. States that there are world class facilities located at Deakin University and Skilled Stadium Geelong. Does not believe that CORA would generate employment for local trades - as 141 Opposed Yes large development companies let contracts out. No proven need for 61 Economic Impact See response to submission 14 and 17. lodges. Retail and tourism precinct already exists in Geelong, elite sporting facility 143 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See response to submission 34. exists at Geelong Football Club and Deakin University Believe that the proposal is more suited to tourist areas such as the Great Economic Impact, See response to submission 5, 10, 17, 25, 144 Opposed Yes Ocean Road. Tourism 34 and 54.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? Overall questions the need and benefit of the proposal including economic and tourism benefits. Questions what the reasoning or what is for the need for 128 rooms and 61 lodges within the development. Questions if the economic study has been carried to sufficiently ascertain the impact on neighbouring businesses including accommodation and township retailers. Questions how the planning authority can guarantee a net benefit of the success and sustainability of CORA. Questions if the surf coast tourism market has demonstrated any need or interest for elite sports facilities. Believes that the claim that CORA will provide the local employment opportunities is weak because the region has a relatively low unemployment rate and jobs created are likely to be filled by people living outside of the area and local residents may not hold needed qualifications. In addition considers jobs will be seasonal. Believes that CORA will cluster and duplicate highly accessible products and services and is an ill-sited satellite development Economic Impact, 145 Opposed Yes outside of township boundaries. Believes this will have a negative impact on Tourism existing businesses and facilities. In addition believes that CORA will have a monopolising impact on surrounding townships and retailers leading to the local businesses having little opportunity to compete. Questions how CORA will impact local existing and future accommodation in the Hinterland. States that the proposal will lead to the loss of agricultural land which should be retained due to their contribution to the regional economy including jobs (states that agriculture accounts for 26% of jobs in the Hinterland). Questions the cost of infrastructure and states that the Government should not fund infrastructure. Believes that local retailers will stock tourist products and therefore decrease everyday items stocked needed by the local community. Questions if the surf cost tourism market has a need or interest in an elite sport facility within the Hinterland. States there is no housing need identified at Modewarre. Believes the proposal duplicates existing facilities at Geelong football club and Deakin University. Has concerns regarding the economic and financial viability of CORA including the tourist / accommodation facilities proposed and the elite Economic Impact, See response to submission 5, 17, 25, 34 146 Opposed Yes sporting complex. Questions who is going to fund the required infrastructure Tourism and 54. (believes that it should not be taxpayers)

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? Questions the commercial viability of the proposal and identifies that Modewarre is not attractive to tourists. States that the hotel will never Economic Impact, 147 Opposed Yes See response to submission 17, 34 and 54. profitably operate. Does not believe the site will be attractive to sporting Tourism teams or events. States that Modewarre is located 15 minutes away from Waurn Ponds where 148 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See response to submission 34. great sport facilities are already located. Believes the proposal will bring employment opportunities for locals and 150 Supports Yes Economic Impact opportunities for local businesses. States that the proposal will be prosperous, offering jobs and economic Economic Impact, 151 Supports Yes growth. Believe it will bring tourists to travel through Cape Otway Road (via Tourism CORA). Identifies that the site to be developed for CORA is agriculturally productive and this will be lost. Questions need for the facility as Deakin University has 152 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See response to submission 34. an elite sports facility at Waurn Ponds. In addition, Boral are looking to regenerate their quarry as a tourist and adventure sports destination. States the shopping hub may hurt existing local operators and notes that the CORA proposal notes $9 million will be stripped from local tourism operators revenue and a further $1 to $2 million from local businesses. Believes local businesses in Moriac and Winchelsea will be adversely affected by bypassing Economic Impact, 153 Opposed Yes See response to submission 5, 10, 17, 34. traffic going to the facility. Questions what jobs will be on offer to locals Tourism when the facility is functional. Believes that the Boral Quarry site in Waurn Ponds will be a better site for the CORA development. States that CORA will duplicate sporting facilities already available at Deakin Geelong. Believes that CORA presents opportunity for Geelong Region Olives to leverage from visitors to CORA, including supply products to food and retail providers at CORA and products the Farmers and Makers Market. The supply Economic Impact, 154 Supports Yes of products could exceed 5000L of Olive Oil annually. Believe that CORA is an Tourism "anchor" enterprise in the region and from which visitors will seek other high value experiences including reaching out to artisanal producers. States that CORA will have a positive impact on the region through creation Economic Impact, 155 Supports Yes of jobs, promoting the region internally and offer new facilities and be a new Tourism retail and tourism destination.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? Questions why State Government should provide $30 million for a private development. Questions what the influence on local property prices will be and states that the hotel is more than adequate. Questions what the 156 Opposed Yes employment benefits will be (how many, how many will be locals employed). Economic Impact See response to submission 17, 34 and 54. Questions if the elite sporting facility is needed with others nearby (Deakin University and Wyndham). Outlines Deakin University already have sporting facilities proposed at CORA. Questions that business case (which is identified to have significant flaws and assumptions). This includes the 20% revenue from the wave pool which 160 Opposed Yes is now excluded and assumes an average stay of 2.5 nights when the Economic Impact See response to submission 17, 34 and 54. regional average is identified to be 1 night. States there is no need for CORA which duplicates facilities available at Deakin University. Believe the proposal is a great opportunity to bring growth to the surrounding Economic Impact, 162 Supports Yes rural communities and will help businesses thrive and provide an economic Tourism boost by bringing more people to the region. Believes the proposal will brand Victoria and the Greater Geelong area as a food destination, identifying a strong link between tourism activity and food and wine exports. Believes that CORA will provide a boost to the region's agri-food and wine tourism product and therefore drive visitor numbers and 164 Supports Yes lifting the average visitor spend by providing a four or five star Tourism accommodation, dining and services which is currently in demand. Identifies that Greater Geelong currently has a relatively low economic yield and low employment multipliers from tourism because of limited offer for high net worth tourists. Concerned about the cost to rate payers in regards to necessary road improvements. Concerned that the sports hub will not occur due to running See response to submission 17, 25, 34 and 165 Opposed Yes out of funds and then subdividing the land as residential lots. States Geelong Economic Impact 54. already has an elite sports facility at Deakin Waurn Ponds. Believes the facility is in the wrong location. Believes CORA puts the local areas economic assets at serious risk. States that the proposal does not stack up economically. States that the elements which were key to the proposal's economic viability have been removed or 166 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See response to submission 17, 34. significantly altered including the removal of the wave pool and the manipulation of the number of ecolodges. Questions where overseas teams are clamouring to use the facility and if there is a robust business market.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? Identifies that the proposal includes employment. Also states that believes CORA may create a more circuitous route and encourage visitors to stop for Economic Impact, 167 Supports Yes a night or two. Identifies that this would be beneficial to take pressure of the Tourism Great Ocean Road and revitalise inland communities which areas struggling. Believes that the development will provide opportunity to enhance Supports employment opportunities for the local community and provides sustainable 168 subject to Yes development. Ask that the development is protected from sale and break up Economic Impact conditions of residential units which would detract from the amenity and the lakeside community. Believes that CORA will generate needed economic activity that is different and complementary to the industries prevalent in the local economy. Believes will provide ongoing employment opportunities for the local Economic Impact, 170 Supports Yes community and will result in further business development in order to Tourism support the proposed facilities and / or to cater to increased tourism demand. States that the encouragement of the development by the government 171 Supports Yes Economic Impact stimulates the wider market. Believes that it will strengthen the local economy by being a drawcard for Economic Impact, 172 Supports Yes visitor activity including international visitors. Tourism States that the proposal is a suitable development in the context of increasing overuse of the coastline. States that the hinterland currently lacks sufficient opportunities to longer and enjoy the hinterland. Believes that the 174 Supports Yes Tourism development has the balance of increased human engagement for economic development and supports a distribution model that avoid further congregation in Torquay and Anglesea. States that the proposal will contribute to growth, place making and tourism and will be an economic driver and a place maker for the region. Believes CORA will boost employment for the region's population both during Economic Impact, 175 Supports Yes construction and in ongoing direct roles. Believes that CORA provides a Tourism catalyst to advance the region's resources and skills to create a centre of excellence in sport science. Believes the proposal will attract local, interstate and international visitors to the region and bring tourist dollars year round.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? Questions if the type of employment to be generated will benefit the local community as they require specific skills that the community may not have. In addition notes that there is no percentage of employment that will be set aside for locals. Questions how the shops and restaurants will benefit the community and how these will affect local businesses already operating in See response to submission 10, 14, 17, 34 176 Opposed Yes the area. Questions if the proposed childcare centre will cause the newly Economic Impact and 54. opened 70 place childcare centre in Winchelsea to fail. Identifies that $350 million is a large amount of money and that there is no guarantee that the development will be completed as property. Possibility it will be sold off. Identifies that similar elite facilities are available at Deakin University and Geelong Stadium. States the proposal will provide the Geelong area with significant new employment opportunities on the site and will provide spin off benefits to local businesses. This includes increased activity and additional employment 178 Supports Yes Economic Impact growth to support the facility. Believes that CORA will allow a slowing of the rate of increase of the average residential property rate and therefore benefit surf coast ratepayers. States the business case is out of date and refers to a previous iteration of My assessment updates the business case the project. Questions CORAs business model. Believes it is duplication of in light of the changes to the proposal. My 179 Opposed Yes other similar ones earmarked for more appropriate locations such as Boral Economic Impact assessment confirms the validity of the Waurn Ponds and Eden Anglesea. Disapproves of the dependency on business case methodology and taxpayers for all aspects of the proposal. conclusions. States that the proposal will create local jobs which will benefit the younger 180 Supports Yes Economic Impact generation. Believe the proposal will be beneficial to the local community and provide jobs and help divert the tourist dollar to Modewarre. Believes will be a facility Economic Impact, 181 Supports Yes that locals and international tourists can enjoy for years to come. Believes Tourism Modewarre will become a destination venue for all to enjoy. Believes will benefit residents with employment opportunities and as the population of Geelong is to double over the next 20 years developments that will provide job opportunities should be welcomed. Believes will also have Economic Impact, 182 Supports Yes benefits to tourism and keep Victoria in the spotlight as a must-see tourist Tourism destination and attract tourist dollars to the Barwon - South Western Victoria area.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? Believes the benefits of the proposal have no relevance to the majority of 183 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See response to submission 54. surrounding residents who will be negatively impacted. Believes the proposal will keep encouraging tourists to visit the region and Economic Impact, 184 Supports Yes boost the local economy. Look forward to seeing the majority of employment Tourism opportunities being awarded to local businesses and people. Does not understand sports component, no sporting team or organisation 185 Opposed Yes has made commitment to use the facility. Will result in the loss of productive Economic Impact See response to submission 34. farm land. Opposed to the childcare facility as have opened a new childcare centre in I understand that the child care centre is to Winchelsea. Currently at a 20% to 25% occupancy rate per week and would support the workers and visitors 186 Opposed Yes Economic Impact like to become fuller in next 2 years. Would like the childcare centre removed (predominately athletes and support staff) from the proposal. to the site. 187 Opposed Yes Opposed to the loss of farming land in favour of CORA Economic Impact Questions how the proposal is different to what is available at other nearby 188 Opposed Yes locations (Deakin University and Kardinia Park). Questions if the proposal is Economic Impact See response to submission 34. for subdivision "in guise of a tourism / sports development". Believes there are worrying impacts on the viability of existing tourism and retail businesses in the Moriac / Winchelsea area. States rates will be used See response to submission 10, 17, 34 and 189 Opposed Yes Economic Impact to upgrade Cape Otway Road. Questions what the greater good of the project 54. is to the Shire. Believes will create a destination for Australia (not just Victoria) Believes the tourism and hospitality industries will generate great economic benefit 191 Supports Yes Tourism including jobs and cash flow. State need more places to spend money around the area. Believes need places to stay in the area. Believes that the development is not needed and that there is questionable Economic Impact, 192 Opposed Yes sporting and tourism needs. States that Geelong AFL grounds, State league See response to submission 34 and 54. Tourism Baseball and Deakin Sports provide professional services and spaces. Questions the success of CORA as there are elite sporting facilities in Geelong and Melbourne. Does not believe people will stop in Modewarre. Believe the land should remain farming to allow farmers to make a living and 193 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See response to submission 17, 34 and 54. provide food. Believes the project is a waste of investment and there are other facilities in more appropriate places. Identifies there are large scale plans for The Eden at Anglesea and the Boral project in Waurn Ponds.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? Believes the proposal will create local jobs during construction and hospitality and other jobs once it is operational. Believes will allow the area to Economic Impact, 195 Supports Yes capitalise on tourism and redistribute tourism traffic across the whole area Tourism rather than just the Great Ocean Road. Believes the project can deliver similar uplift to MONA in Hobart such as 196 Supports Yes Tourism increased visitation and increased visitor spend per trip. Believes CORA will create opportunities for a local hospitality supplies business and the region including new businesses generating wealth. 197 Supports Yes Economic Impact Believes will improve the futures of communities living in regional areas (if done right). States that the proposal will have a detrimental effect on local towns (Modewarre, Anglesea and Winchelsea due to the large shopping centre, restaurants, accommodation, galleries, sculpture park and sports facilities. Identifies that the proposal is larger than the Winchelsea and Moriac retail See response to submission 10, 17, 34 and 198 Opposed Yes Economic Impact precincts. States that there is no proven need for the type of development 54. proposed. Questions the business model and the promise of employment for local residents. Believes the funding from the Federal, State and Local government would be better spent improving local sporting facilities. Will cause the loss of productive farm land. Does not believe the project will 199 Opposed Yes be a success and believes it is likely to become an isolated satellite shopping Economic Impact centre and hotel. States that the development will decrease their land value, questions the community benefits and states there is no need for the development. Fears 203 Opposed Yes that the development may turn into a residential one. Questions the Economic Impact See response to submission 34 and 54. community benefits and states that there are world class elite sporting facilities at Deakin University and Geelong Football Club. Cause loss of agricultural land. Questions the business case and the 204 Opposed Yes Economic Impact economic sustainability of the development. States the proposal will bring job opportunities and tourism opportunities. Economic Impact, 206 Supports Yes Believes CORA will offer another destination for visitors to visit and that the Tourism hotel will allow visitors to explore the hinterland. States that local businesses will benefit from the development and attract Economic Impact, 207 Supports Yes tourist visitors. Also states that the development will provide employment Tourism opportunities.

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related? Believes will have opportunities as identified in the Business Case and will make a contribution to regional Victoria. States will be a major asset 208 Supports Yes Economic Impact nationally and internationally. States will bring people to the region and that offers unique development opportunities. Believes it will bring global attention to Australia and benefit the immediate 209 Supports Yes Economic Impact community and country. 216 Opposed Yes Believes is located in the wrong location. Economic Impact 217 Opposed Yes Believes is located inappropriate. Economic Impact 218 Opposed Yes Believes it is located in the wrong location. Economic Impact Questions who will go to CORA as it is located in the middle of nowhere - 219 Opposed Yes Economic Impact disagrees with its location. Questions what clientele the development will attract. States the winter months will inhibit the training of athletes and questions if tourists will visit in 220 Opposed Yes Tourism See response to submission 17 and 34. the winter as there is no snow and it is too cold to relax, go to the beach, surf etc. Believes the proposal should not be located in a farming / rural location but 221 Opposed Yes Economic Impact closer to a capital city. 223 Opposed Yes Believes should be located in a non farming location closer to Melbourne. Economic Impact Productive farm land will be lost. Questions if will led to increased tourism Economic Impact, 227 Opposed Yes and "paddock to plate" enticement. Tourism Questions if money is suitable compensation for destroying the property and 228 Opposed Yes Economic Impact See response to submission 54. lifestyle of locals. 231 Opposed Yes Opposed to the loss of farming land for the proposal. Economic Impact Believes will create jobs for the local area during construction and in an 232 Supports Yes ongoing capacity. Believe negatives such as increased traffic will be minimal Economic Impact and outweighed by benefits. Believes it will be a modern international site. Believes it will have flow on benefits for generations to come. States that the staging needs to be regulated so that the sport and tourism facilities are built Economic Impact, 233 Supports Yes first. Believes that the accommodation buildings must not become Tourism residential to prevent it being a residential subdivision. Questions if the proposal and its identified tourism benefits outweigh 234 Opposed Yes Tourism See response to submission 54. potential negative impacts such as pressure on local infrastructure. 237 Opposed Yes States the proposal will led to the loss of agricultural land. Economic Impact

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Support / Economic / Sub No Oppose Tourism Summary Overarching Theme Response to Submission Category Related?

238 Opposed Yes Believes that the location is not right for the development. Economic Impact

Believes that the employment opportunities which will open up for young 239 Supports Yes Economic Impact residents is exciting for their future. Believes Modewarre is not a suitable location for CORA. Believe a 240 Opposed Yes concentrated tourist development is more suited for an area already subject Economic Impact to development such as Torquay / Armstrong Creek. Questions why the Sport complex is being built last, questions if the hotel 241 Opposed Yes Accommodation See response to submission 17 and 34. should be smaller if only going to be 30% occupied. States that the CORA development proposes to enhance the site, with infrastructure to attract tourists to the area, by way of an Elite Sports Training, Accommodation, Retail and Economic Impact, 244 Opposed Yes See response to submission 17, 34 and 54. Tourism Facility. The associated commercialism denies the intrinsic value of Tourism what already exists, purporting an instrumental and economic value that is absent. This is untrue.

245 Opposed Yes Believes development is focused on profit and not negative impacts Economic Impact See response to submission 54.

Believes that Hinterlands tourism in the future should be aligned with the region's landscape, environment and immersion in nature. States that the proposal has a weak business case and does not provide the community, general public or visitor a notable or interesting drawcard. Believes that the Economic Impact, 249 Opposed Yes proposal is excessive and will cost the taxpayer to establish and there is no Tourism proof of its sustainability. Believes that the local community already has access to facilities proposed (ie shopping, service and recreational centres) which cater to the community's needs.

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