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Amendment C125 Surf Coast Planning Scheme Cape Otway Road Australia Expert Evidence Statement Matt Ainsaar Managing Director, Urban Enterprise Pty Ltd

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Amendment C125 Surf Coast Planning Scheme Cape Otway Road Australia Expert Evidence Statement Matt Ainsaar Managing Director, Urban Enterprise Pty Ltd AMENDMENT C125 SURF COAST PLANNING SCHEME CAPE OTWAY ROAD AUSTRALIA EXPERT EVIDENCE STATEMENT MATT AINSAAR MANAGING DIRECTOR, URBAN ENTERPRISE PTY LTD COESR PTY LTD | JANUARY 2020 CONTENTS 1. QUALIFICATIONS 5 2. ENGAGEMENT 6 3. BACKGROUND 10 4. ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 14 4.1. INTRODUCTION 14 4.2. GENERAL OVERVIEW 14 4.3. COMMENTARY ON THE METHOD USED IN THE EIA 15 4.4. ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT OUTCOMES 22 4.5. CONCLUSIONS REGARDING ECONOMIC IMPACT 23 5. ACCOMMODATION ASSESSMENT 24 5.1. INTRODUCTION 24 5.2. STRATEGIC REVIEW 25 5.3. ACCOMMODATION SUPPLY 26 5.4. ACCOMMODATION DEMAND 28 5.5. CONCLUSIONS REGARDING ACCOMMODATION DEMAND AND SUPPLY 33 6. SUBMISSIONS 35 7. CONCLUSIONS 38 APPENDICES 39 APPENDIX A REQUIREMENTS OF PLANNING PANELS VICTORIA – EXPERT EVIDENCE 39 APPENDIX B PROPOSED CHANGES TO CORA PROPOSAL BETWEEN ERNST & YOUNG BUSINESS CASE AND EXHIBITED PROPOSAL 43 APPENDIX C SUMMARY OF SUBMISSIONS TO AMENDMENT RELATING TO ECONOMIC IMPACT AND TOURISM MATTERS 46 FIGURES F1. CORA CONCEPT MASTERPLAN ......................................................................................................................................... 11 F1. OPERATIONAL PHASE MODELLING APPROACH .............................................................................................................. 16 F2. VICTORIA’S TOURISM REGIONS ....................................................................................................................................... 24 TABLES T1. PROPOSED CORA LAND USES AND QUANITITIES ............................................................................................................ 10 T2. ASSUMPTIONS DRIVING OVERNIGHT VISITATION (EY REPORT) ................................................................................... 17 T3. REVISED ASSUMPTIONS DRIVING OVERNIGHT VISITATION (URBAN ENTERPRISE ESTIMATES) ................................. 18 T4. ASSUMPTIONS DRIVING OVERNIGHT VISITOR SPEND (CORA BUSINESS CASE VS URBAN ENTERPRISE) ................. 19 T5. ESTIMATED RETAIL TURNOVER (PER ANNUM) ............................................................................................................... 20 T6. ECONOMIC IMPACT – CONSTRUCTION PHASE ............................................................................................................... 22 T7. ECONOMIC IMPACT – OPERATION PHASE (ANNUAL) .................................................................................................... 22 T8. ESTIMATED COMMERCIAL ROOM STOCK ........................................................................................................................ 27 T9. PROFILE OF ACCOMMODATION - GREAT OCEAN ROAD REGION ..................................................................................... 28 T10. PROFILE OF ACCOMMODATION - GEELONG AND THE BELLARINE REGION 2018 ........................................................ 28 T11. VICTORIAN TOURISM ACCOMMODATION MONITOR 2018-19 ....................................................................................... 29 T12. GREAT OCEAN ROAD REGION VISITATION SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 29 T13. FORECAST COMMERCIAL TOURIST ACCOMMODATION DEMAND - GREAT OCEAN ROAD REGION –2016-17 TO 2026- 27 .................................................................................................................................................................................... 30 T14. FORECAST DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL TOURIST ACCOMMODATION – GEELONG AND THE BELLARINE - 2027 ..... 30 T15. ACCOMMODATION PROPOSALS ..................................................................................................................................... 32 T16. NUMBER OF SUBMISSIONS RECEIVED BY TYPE ........................................................................................................... 35 T17. NUMBER OF ECONOMIC / TOURISM RELATED SUBMISSIONS IN SUPPORT OR OPPOSING AMENDMENT C125 ....... 35 1. QUALIFICATIONS 1. My name is Matt Jacques Ainsaar and I am the Managing Director and founder of Urban Enterprise Pty Ltd, with offices situated at Level 1, 302-304 Barkly Street, Brunswick, Victoria. 2. Urban Enterprise is a firm of urban planners, land economists and tourism planners based in Melbourne. The firm has 30 years’ experience providing consultancy services to all levels of Government and a wide range of private sector organisations in Victoria and in other States of Australia. 3. I am a qualified planner and land economist with more than 40 years’ experience. 4. I have expertise in relation to development economics, land demand and supply, economic impact assessments and tourism assessments. I have appeared as an expert witness at Planning Panel hearings and VCAT hearings for both developers and Councils in respect of economic and tourism issues associated with planning applications and amendments. 5. My educational qualifications and memberships of professional associations include: a. Bachelor of Town and Regional Planning, University of Melbourne b. Graduate Diploma of Property, RMIT University c. Member, Planning Institute of Australia d. Member, Victorian Planning and Environmental Law Association e. Member, Economic Development Australia f. Fellow, Australian Property Institute (Certified Practising Professional). 5 AMENDMENT C125 SURF COAST EXPERT EVIDENCE –PLANNING PROPERTY PARTNERS 2. ENGAGEMENT 6. I was instructed by Planning and Property Partners (PPP) on behalf of COESR Pty Ltd, to prepare an expert evidence statement to present at this Advisory Committee hearing in relation to this matter. 7. My written instructions from PPP, dated 1 November 2019, as they relate to Amendment C125 to the Surf Coast Planning Scheme, Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) were as follows: a. “Review the material provided to you and following engagement prepare an expert witness statement in respect to the CORA development proposal and Amendment C125, which: i. Provides an independent review of the Cape Otway Road Australia Business Case (the business case) prepared by Ernst & Young (EY) and the September 2019 Economic Assessment prepared by Urban Enterprise having regard to the current CORA development proposal; ii. provides an independent ‘first principles’ analysis of accommodation supply and demand trends as relevant to the proposal; iii. provides an independent ‘first principles’ analysis in relation to any aspect of the proposal you consider necessary to form your overall opinion; iv. considers your own opinions, within the limits of your expertise, with respect to the economic benefits of proposed development; v. considers your own opinions, within the limits of your expertise, in relation to any economic and retail impact of the proposed development; and vi. provides a response to any submissions received from other parties arising from public exhibition, as relevant.” 8. I have reviewed the materials provided in my brief from Planning and Property Partners and other relevant documents and policies. Documentation that I have reviewed includes: a. 10 Connies Lane Title; b. 50 Connies Lane Title; c. 155 Batsons Rd Title; d. 1300 Cape Otway Rd Title; e. 1280-1320 Cape Otway Rd Title; f. 1300 Cape Otway Rd Title; g. 1340 Cape Otway Rd Title; h. Surf Coast Planning Scheme Amendment C125 Explanatory Report, October 2019; i. Surf Coast Planning Scheme Amendment C125 Draft Instruction Sheet, October 2019; 6 AMENDMENT C125 SURF COAST EXPERT EVIDENCE –PLANNING PROPERTY PARTNERS j. Proposed Schedule 3 to Clause 37.02 Comprehensive Development Zone, Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA); k. Surf Coast Planning Scheme Amendment C125 Comprehensive Development Zone Map (Part of Planning Scheme maps 10 and 26); l. Proposed Clause 21.01 Municipal Strategic Statement; m. Proposed Clause 21.04 Tourism; n. Proposed Clause 21.06 Rural Landscape; o. Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) Elite Sports Training facility, Accommodation and Retail Village in the Surf Coast, Victoria Business Case, prepared by Ernst & Young (EY) on behalf of the Department of Regional Development Victoria, 1 January 2018; p. Cape Otway Road Australia Community and Stakeholder Engagement Findings, Final Report, prepared by Capire Consulting Group, 31 January 2018; q. Cape Otway Road and Connies Lane Modewarre Geotechnical Investigation, prepared by A.S. Hames Pty Ltd, 28 November 2017; r. Phase I Site History Assessment Cape Otway Road, Batsons Road and Modewarre VIC, prepared by Compass Environmental, 7 March 2018; s. Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA), Cape Otway Road, Modewarre, Victoria: Desktop Cultural Heritage Assessment, prepared by Ecology and Heritage Partners Pty Ltd 14 May 2018; t. Land Capability Assessment for Sustainable Irrigation of Recycled Water at the CORA development in Modewarre for Out Task Environmental, prepared by Ag Challenge Consulting, August 2018; u. Cape Otway Road Australia: Waste Water Treatment and Recycled Water Land Capability Assessment Overview, prepared by Out Task Environmental, 2 August 2019; v. Concept Masterplan CORA – Cape Otway Road Australia, Tract, 18 December 2019; w. Final Landscape Masterplan CORA – Cape Otway Road Australia, Tract, 18 December 2018; x. Precinct Plan CORA – Cape Otway Road Australia, Tract, 18 December 2018; y. Technical Memorandum: Acoustic Review Re: Cape Otway Road Australia (CORA) prepared by Enfield Acoustics Pty Ltd, 27 August 2019; z. Cape Otway Road Australia Economic Assessment prepared by Paul Shipp, Director, Urban Enterprise 11 September 2019; aa.
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