’s Usual Role in Presidential Politics | Robert F. Sanchez

Editor’s Note: A version of this article originally appeared on FloridaVerve.org, The Institute’s website devoted to Florida’s history and culture.

n the days prior to the Ides of March prominent pollsters and preening pundits 2016, Florida was briefly the center of found palmy vistas for the TV cameras to America’s political universe. As early capture in the background as they pondered Ivoting surged and Election Day for the state’s which of the candidates would win Florida’s presidential preference primary approached, large haul of convention delegates. On

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Election Day, several candidates even set up the menu of viable choices available for shop in Florida, using Sunshine State locales voters in other states. Being able to have a as the backdrop for their victory speeches or, say early in the process is not unimportant; in the case of Marco Rubio, for announcing just imagine a country in which you may that he was “suspending” his campaign. choose to dine anywhere you want, but each And then, just as suddenly as the and every restaurant, cafe, diner, and bistro polls, pollsters and pundits arrived, they has only the same two items on its menu: were gone. Although the attention was nice a McDonald’s Big Mac and a Burger King while it lasted, and most Floridians had Whopper. welcomed a chance to have a say at last in Because of the way the winnowing a typically front-loaded process favors states that process, the rarity of are far smaller and less this year’s circumstances “In the last 24 diverse than Florida, our also reminded politically presidential state’s voters, like backup savvy voters that in most elections, for quarterbacks, often don’t presidential election get to enter the game until years, their state’s role in instance, the two it’s garbage time, when a key phase of the process major political what they do won’t matter — narrowing the field parties have split anyway. of candidates — is best Sure, Florida’s 29 described by two terms the victories, with electoral votes usually are borrowed from the world each winning highly sought during the of sports: “garbage time” Florida a dozen run-up to each November’s and “backup quarterback.” general election. The As for “garbage times. In the last only states of comparable time,” the term was well six elections, political heft — California, defined a decade ago by each party has Texas, and New York — are NBC’s Roland Beech, predictably “Republican as cited in Wikipedia: three wins.” red” or “Democratic blue” “Garbage time is a term on the electoral map. used to refer to the period Florida, on the other hand, toward the end of a timed sporting event that has been a swing state for decades. In the has become a blowout when the outcome of last 24 presidential elections, for instance, the game has already been decided.” the two major political parties have split the Usually, by the time Floridians get a victories, with each winning Florida a dozen chance to have their voices heard, four other times. In the last six elections, each party has states — tiny and eccentric New Hampshire, three wins. Corn Ethanol Kingdom Iowa, Casino Then there’s this bit of solace: Once Hangover Capital Nevada, and “Too Small in a while, even a backup quarterback To Be a Country/Too Large To Be an Insane daydreaming on the bench early in the first Asylum” South Carolina — have streamlined quarter will suddenly be thrust into the

20 | The Journal, Fall 2016 The Journal of The James Madison Institute game well before garbage time because the George W. Bush. Even without the ballot starter got hurt or, say, suffered a head injury confusion, the accidental votes for these after which he was sacked twice, fumbled minor party candidates may have affected thrice, and threw 10 interceptions in a the outcome nationwide. row, thereupon getting yanked to undergo As for the statewide picture, the vote the NFL’s “concussion protocol.” Likewise, totals for Bush and Gore were so close that Florida has occasionally found itself playing a recount was ordered. During the recount an influential role as a significant way station in Palm Beach County, another problem somewhere along the long and winding road arose: hanging chads. On the antiquated to the White House — although not always computer punch card ballots used in that in conventional ways. Consider, for instance, county, voters were supposed to use a stylus some of these 10 episodes selected from to poke a hole in a circle beside the name Florida’s checkered history in presidential of the candidate of their choice. However, politics. some of the voters did not manage to punch a hole all the way through. That left a little 1. Bush v. Gore: Butterfly Ballots and piece of punched paper, a chad, dangling Hanging Chads The episode that is probably the best known nowadays is the most recent. In 2000, the nationwide race between George W. Bush and was extremely close, to say the least. In the end, it all came down to Florida, where getting a final tally was complicated by a number of problems statewide but nowhere as notoriously as in vote-rich Palm Beach County. There, the locally elected Supervisor of Elections, Democrat Theresa LePore, had Attorney General speaking at a news conference approved what became known with Governor on the initial Florida recount during the 2000 Presidential election. Courtesy of Florida Memory. as a butterfly ballot. This design reportedly confused some voters, particularly senior citizens who had in the hole. On other ballots, the hole was long been accustomed to a different ballot intact but there was a tiny indentation, as design. Some of the confused citizens may though a voter had attempted to make a hole have inadvertently voted for minor party there. On those ballots whose holes were not candidates or completely opened or were not opened at all, when they intended to vote for Al Gore or the recount officials who were conducting

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questions lingered. The Miami Herald decided to investigate. Executive editor Marty Baron dispatched a team of reporters to follow up. The Herald team, led by veteran reporter Martin Merzer, uncovered numerous problems with Florida’s decentralized system of elections. In some counties, for instance, there were numerous problems of “undervoting” — due to ballots that were improperly marked. In other counties there was “overvoting” — ballots disqualified because Attorneys leaving the Florida Supreme Court building during the of participation by felons, non- 2000 Presidential election. Courtesy of Florida Memory. citizens, and others who were ineligible to vote. The Herald’s the tally by hand were supposed to decide investigation — which in 2001 each voter’s intent. Did he or she start to the St. Martin’s Press published in a 302- punch a hole then have a change of heart? page book titled “Democracy Held Hostage” Who knew? How long could this go on? — led to numerous reforms in the state’s Worse, Palm Beach wasn’t the only county election laws, equipment and procedures, where problems had cropped up, leading to but it did not mount a convincing case a recount. for overturning George W. Bush’s narrow Famously the matter wound up in victory. the courts as Florida’s recount dragged on. The liberal-leaning Florida Supreme Court 2. Gary Hart’s Monkey Business essentially ruled that the recount ought A dozen or so years prior to Bush to continue until Al Gore somehow won. v. Gore, Florida was involved in events that Subsequently, the conservative U.S. Supreme deeply affected the race for the White House Court considered the case, Bush v. Gore, — and the Miami Herald was involved in ruling 7-2 that Florida’s recount was being that episode as well. Democrats in 1988 were conducted in a way that was constitutionally still smarting from a landslide loss in 1984, suspect and 5-4 that it was time for Florida when Ronald Reagan easily defeated the to declare a winner so that the Electoral liberal Walter Mondale to win a second term. College, due to meet Dec. 12, 2000, could Some in the party argued that the best bet to fulfill its Constitutional duty without delay. win back the White House was to nominate The recount stopped. Bush won. a “moderate” from the South or the West. Al Gore conceded with graciousness. A Colorado’s Sen. Gary Hart seemed to fit the constitutional crisis was averted. Still,

22 | The Journal, Fall 2016 The Journal of The James Madison Institute bill, and as a plus some said he even “looked been having an affair with a young woman presidential” and “had charisma.” Moreover, named Donna Rice, and that the affair may as if to attest to his political potential in the have included time spent on a Miami-based South, Hart had won Florida’s presidential yacht aptly named “Monkey Business.” Hart primary four years earlier, garnering nearly soon withdrew. The Democrats nominated 40 percent of the 1.16 million votes cast liberal Massachusetts Governor Michael compared to only 32 percent for the party’s Dukakis, who led for a while but ultimately eventual nominee, Walter Mondale. In managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of contrast to Hart, Mondale was a self-effacing victory by losing to the Republican nominee, Minnesotan whose lack of charisma led a Vice President George H.W. Bush. critic to quip, “He could light up a room just by leaving it.” 3. What Might Have Been Alas for Hart, by 1988 the rumors This year, five candidates who that he was cheating on his wife were are either full-time or part-time Florida intensifying, as was media scrutiny. In a residents were among the 17 hopefuls huff, he invited reporters to follow him initially seeking the Republican Party’s around. Miami Herald political editor presidential nomination. The five included Tom Fiedler — later Dean of the College not only the obvious — former Gov. Jeb of Communications at Boston University Bush and U.S. Senator Marco Rubio — but — took Hart up on his challenge. An also former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, investigation disclosed that Hart had indeed noted neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and businessman . In addition to this group of part-time residents, several Presidents — notably Harry Truman in Key West and Richard Nixon on Key Biscayne — have used Florida locales for their “winter White House.” However, sad to say, no Floridian has ever been elected President. Some observers still believe that the state’s best ever opportunity to send a native son to the White House arguably came and went in 1992. In that election cycle the Democrats, having been burned by nominating liberal candidates in 1984 and 1988, seemed determined to nominate a candidate who would be perceived as a moderate — and nominating a southerner was perceived as a plus that might also provide an opportunity to make some inroads below the Mason- U.S. Senator Gary Hart in 1987. Courtesy of Wikimedia. Dixon Line for the first time since Jimmy

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Carter won the White House in 1976. Then as now, given the necessity of One name that frequently popped up raising huge sums of money, the time to was that of Bob Graham. He had served two make a decision about entering the race for terms as Florida’s Governor. In 1986 he was the White House is many months prior to elected to the U.S. Senate by a wide margin Election Day. Unfortunately, even though — the same year that Republican Bob many urged the ever-cautious Senator Martinez won the governorship. Graham Graham to run for the White House instead was perceived as a centrist. He was from a of for re-election, as of 1991 president state that not only was in the South but was George H.W. Bush seemed unbeatable. The also a large and growing swing state. President’s unprecedentedly high approval After Graham’s impressive victory ratings in some polls topped 90 percent in the U.S. Senate race in 1986, some of his following the quick and decisive (though longtime associates envisioned the White arguably incomplete) victory in the Persian House as his logical next step. Not only did Gulf War. he have the characteristics that many in his So Bob Graham did not run. party were looking for, but alone among Another southern Governor, Bill Clinton of southern governors, he had an additional Arkansas, stepped in — quite possibly to get advantage: The Graham family had a his name known for the “open-seat race” four presence on the national stage through its years later. However, Clinton caught a break. ownership of The Post, Newsweek By the time November 1992 rolled around, magazine, and a collection of TV stations, President Bush’s popularity had plummeted including important network affiliates in as the nation’s economy sank into a post- Miami, Orlando, and Jacksonville. war recession, and the federal government’s fiscal woes were exacerbated by the savings-and-loan bailout. Then, to make matters worse for President Bush, independent Ross Perot entered the race. Perot arguably drained enough votes from Bush to allow Clinton to win, even though he failed to win a majority of the popular votes cast. Clinton won the presidency without carrying Florida, which Bush won with 40 percent of the votes compared to Clinton’s 39 percent and Perot’s 19 percent. Arguably the Democrats could Governor Bob Graham speaking to the Florida Senate, April 25, have carried Florida had Bob 1986. Courtesy of Florida Memory. Graham been the candidate.

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The fact that Graham was re- elected to the U.S. Senate that same year with 65.4 percent of the vote was a testament to his popularity — and his Presidential potential. Then again, in politics, timing is everything.

4. When FDR Decided Against Picking a Pepper Speaking of timing: In 1944, when a weary and badly ailing president Franklin D. Roosevelt was seeking a fourth term, a notable Floridian almost won a spot on the ticket as his running mate. Sen. U.S. Senator Claude Pepper on the campaign trail in 1938. Courtesy Claude Pepper had been of Florida Memory. one of Roosevelt’s strongest allies in the U.S. Senate, with the bosses’ preference: Missouri tirelessly supporting the President’s New Senator Harry S. Truman, who came with Deal legislation. Roosevelt reportedly the blessing of Kansas City’s notorious wanted Pepper to be his running mate in Pendergast Machine. place of the increasingly dovish and leftist This switch was probably a blessing Henry Wallace. Pepper was also considered for the nation. Roosevelt died four months popular; six years earlier he had won re- after being sworn in for his fourth term. nomination without a runoff in a Democratic Truman led the nation through the end of Party primary over a field of five candidates, World War II and a tumultuous postwar and he had won the general election in 1938 period. He was widely reviled by the end with 82.4 percent of the vote. of his second term, but now, upon further However, historians say that the review, he is widely regarded as one of Democratic Party’s “big city bosses” urged the nation’s better Presidents. Meanwhile, Roosevelt not to pick Pepper, whose old- Pepper was among those who naively failed style political demeanor bore an uncanny to understand the Soviet Union’s aggressive resemblance to the cartoon character intentions. His popularity waned, and in Foghorn Leghorn and his progenitor, radio 1950 he lost his bid for re-election after a comedian Fred Allen’s “Allen’s Alley” regular campaign that was one of Florida’s bitterest Senator Claghorn. Roosevelt, arguably too ever. Pepper was later elected to the U.S. weak to argue at this point, went along House of Representatives from a liberal congressional district centered in Miami

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Beach. The archives and artifacts from his bathtub there. long history in public office are housed at Also on the ballot was renegade Florida State University and are said to be on Republican Theodore Roosevelt, Taft’s par with the presidential libraries of some of predecessor, who was running on the the nation’s lesser presidents. Progressive or “Bull Moose” party label. Granted, the GOP schism probably didn’t 5. Could an Avowed Socialist Candidate make much of a difference; the Democrats Win in Florida? had been winning Florida ever since the end Could an avowed Socialist such as of a Reconstruction era in which Republicans Vermont’s Sen. Bernie Sanders win Florida? were credibly accused of rigging some of the Not necessarily, but at least once in history elections. the Socialist Party’s nominee for President The Democrats’ 1912 nominee of the managed to finish Woodrow Wilson easily won the election, becoming the first of his party to win the White House since Grover Cleveland 20 years earlier. Second place in Florida: Socialist Party candidate Eugene Debs. In third: Teddy Roosevelt. As for the Republican nominee, President Taft came in a rather humiliating fourth. He was spared from bringing up the rear by the presence on the ballot of the ’s candidate, Eugene Chafin. An avowed Socialist candidate never again has finished as high as second place in Florida, although several “closeted” Socialist Party candidate Eugene V. Debs in 1912. Courtesy of socialists have managed . respectable finishes. second in Florida. Granted, it didn’t happen 6. Antebellum Florida: The Lean Years recently. The year was 1912. As hard as it is Florida achieved statehood in 1845, to believe, the Republican Party was divided so the first four presidential elections in that year. The GOP nominee was the portly which it participated occurred in 1848, President William Howard Taft, who was 1852, 1856, and 1860. In those four seeking a second term in the White House elections, a grand total of 38,751 votes were despite reportedly getting stuck in the cast in Florida, a reminder that the state was

26 | The Journal, Fall 2016 The Journal of The James Madison Institute still more or less a primitive frontier with a minimal number of electoral votes. As a result, presidential candidates were not exactly knocking on doors in the Sunshine State, not even in the state’s more populated regions, which were clustered along the state’s northern border. It’s also safe to assume that in 1860, the year Abraham Lincoln was elected even though he didn’t even appear on the ballot in Florida, no presidential candidate went seeking votes in Dade County, population 83 — as in eighty-three — even though the sprawling county’s boundaries then encompassed all of the territory that now includes not only Miami-Dade County but also Broward, Palm Beach, and Martin counties. Almost 7 million people live there now, and some of them probably drive a Lincoln, a name now allowed in Florida. Portrait of President-elect Abraham Lincoln, November 1860. Courtesy of Library of Congress.

7. A Presidential Election Year With of each state’s electoral votes would be Absolutely No Florida Fiasco announced. In 1864, for once, the nationwide outcome At this point, Hayes was assured of of a presidential election did not hang on 184 of the 185 electoral votes he needed to the results in Florida. As a member of the sew up the election, so he needed only one Confederate States of America, Florida more. In three states with new Democratic was temporarily unable to participate. No governors supporting Tilden, but with election, no snafu. those states’ Reconstruction overseers still running things, the election results were 8. The First Time Florida Made a Difference extremely close — and bitterly disputed. A dozen years later, in 1876, came In the end, it was left to Congress, what is regarded as the first of Florida’s with the intervention and advice of an ad presidential election fiascos. At issue hoc commission, to sort things out. As a were Florida’s electoral votes in the race result of a backroom deal, Hayes finally got between Republican Rutherford B. Hayes that extra electoral vote (and then some) and Democrat Samuel J. Tilden, who won when Florida — alphabetically ahead of the the popular vote nationwide by a margin of other contested states, Louisiana, and South 254,000, but narrowly lost the popular vote Carolina — announced that the ‘Hayes in Florida. It all came down to a roll call in set’ of electors had prevailed. As another Congress during which the apportionment part of the backroom deal, Hayes ended

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Reconstruction in the South. This election control of a potentially volatile situation — would not be the last time Florida played and doing so without resorting to the heavy- a decisive role in determining the outcome handed tactics used by Mayor Richard of a hotly contested and heavily disputed Daley’s Chicago cops four years earlier. presidential election. Indeed, the stout Pomerance, who bore a physical resemblance to longtime 9. Florida’s Conventional Wisdom in 1972 South Florida resident Jackie Gleason, In 1968, with President Lyndon B. whose popular CBS-TV show originated Johnson having announced that he would from the same Miami Beach Convention not run, the Democrats were deeply divided. Center — was perceived as the creator of a LBJ’s Vice President Hubert Humphrey was kinder and gentler approach to police work, pitted against a dovish, anti-war candidate, carefully balancing the rights of protesters, Eugene McCarthy. The party’s national while also preserving law and order. When convention in Chicago that summer was Pomerance died in 1994 after a long and marred by violence so serious that it was distinguished career in law enforcement, the followed by the trial of alleged perpetrators obituaries still singled out his department’s dubbed the “Chicago Seven.” Although handling of security during the 1972 Humphrey won the Democrats’ nomination, political conventions as his finest hour. the schism led to a defeat at the hands of Republican Richard Nixon. 10. Problems With the Nominating By 1972, the unpopularity of the Process: Losers’ Sour Grapes or a Case for Vietnam War had further mobilized the Reform? Democrats’ anti-war faction, which united Anyone who moans about the behind George McGovern. The question process currently used to choose the was where to hold the national convention. presidential candidates who appear on the In the end, the Democrats selected Miami ballot each November will be accused of sour Beach, perhaps imagining that Biscayne grapes. Nonetheless, credible critics could Bay might form something of a defensive plausibly argue that there are numerous moat to hold protesters at bay — no pun problems with the current mix of caucuses intended. Meanwhile, the Republicans were and primaries — some winner-take-all well underway with plans to convene in and some with the convention delegates San Diego when that plan fell through. As apportioned in accordance with the popular a result, the GOP also wound up meeting vote. Moreover, letting four states — but in Miami Beach, creating the rarity of both especially New Hampshire and Iowa — parties staging their conventions in the same winnow the field is unfair to states such as city. Florida, which are much more diverse and, There were protests, to be sure, at thus, more representative of the nation as a both conventions. This was the ’70s, after all. whole. In the aftermath, however, the Miami Beach The old argument that starting the Police Department led by Chief Rocky process in relatively small states where Pomerance won high marks for maintaining “retail politics” can occur is no longer valid,

28 | The Journal, Fall 2016 The Journal of The James Madison Institute if it ever was. Hundreds of millions of dollars oversized role to polling organizations. In were spent in the run-up to these four the 2016 presidential race, which actually primaries and caucuses — contests deemed got well underway in 2015, the polls crucial because they can kill the campaign were frequently inaccurate in forecasting hopes of worthy candidates. the results of the various primaries and Meanwhile, the current process caucuses. Even so, poll results were used obviously gives an advantage to candidates to determine which candidates were to whose name recognition is greater, whether be taken seriously and given the spotlight because of incumbency in an important rather than the “under card” in the crucial political office or celebrity on TV and social “debates.” As for those “debates,” media media. The candidates start with an edge, organizations arguably played too intrusive even if their experience, qualifications, a role, verging on becoming participants and general fitness are not particularly in a process that they should have been impressive. objectively chronicling. The current process also gives an Is there any hope for reform? It’s a

Sign declaring Miami Beach home of the National Conventions in 1972. Courtesy of Florida Memory.

www.jamesmadison.org | 29 The Journal of The James Madison Institute long shot, but maybe there is. On April 4, in a series of rulings, the U.S. Supreme Court 2016, the U.S. Supreme Court unanimously invalidated a rule of the Texas Democratic upheld the well-established doctrine of Party. At that time the party did not allow “one person, one vote” when it comes to African Americans to vote in its primaries, drawing election districts’ boundaries which were then tantamount to elections in for Congress, state legislatures, and other heavily Democratic Texas. elected bodies. This principle would seem Perhaps the time has come for to make unconstitutional someone from Florida any political party’s rules and/or other major states that cut in half the number to challenge party rules of convention delegates “Meanwhile, the that penalize their states by from states that dare to current process yanking half the delegates move their primaries to obviously gives to which the size of their an earlier date in order population entitles them. to have the kind of clout an advantage Such rules are arguably enjoyed by Iowa and New to candidates a violation of the one- Hampshire. In the past the whose name person, one-vote principle. parties have invoked such If Florida and other rules in order to prevent recognition is large bellwether states the primary season from greater...” could have an enhanced starting even earlier than it role in the Presidential does as states tried to one- nominating process, voters up New Hampshire and in November might find Iowa. choices better than the political equivalent Granted, the courts have generally of Big Macs and Whoppers on their ballot’s been reluctant to intervene in political menu of presidential candidates. parties’ internal affairs, including disputes Robert F. Sanchez is a senior fellow at about their rules. However, there have been The James Madison Institute. exceptions. For instance, in the early 1940s,

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