Residual Waste in London and the South East Where Is It Going to Go…?

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Residual Waste in London and the South East Where Is It Going to Go…? Residual Waste in London and the South East Where is it going to go…? October 2018 FULL REPORT Residual Waste in London and the South East INTRODUCTION In 2017, London and the South East generated just under 10 Million tonnes (“Mt”) of Residual Waste, exporting circa 1.7Mt as Refuse Derived Fuel (“RDF”) to Europe – a greater dependence on the export market than the rest of the UK. At the same time securing planning consent for new Energy from Waste (“EfW”) facilities is particularly challenging (as evidenced by the recent refusals of EfW developments in West Sussex and Cambridgeshire). By the end of 2019 there could be a total of just 3 remaining Non-Hazardous Landfills across the south coast from Hampshire to Kent. When combined with the potential impact of Brexit on RDF exports, there is greater uncertainty with respect to the adequacy of future Residual Waste treatment capacity in this market than any other in the UK. This report therefore considers in detail the future for Residual Waste in London and the South East through to 2025, with a particular emphasis on the availability of local landfill capacity. In this report Residual Waste is defined as non-hazardous, solid, combustible mixed waste which remains after recycling activities and is capable of being processed alongside Residual Household Waste. The Environment Agency term of Household, Industrial and Commercial (“HIC”) is wider and relates to all solid non-hazardous wastes permitted to be landfilled in a Non-Hazardous Landfill. This report has been derived primarily from Environment Agency data, Tolvik’s own market knowledge and through confidential discussions with the major landfill operators in the area - Biffa, FCC, Veolia and Viridor. We are grateful for their assistance. Where we have used commercially sensitive information in the preparation of the report we have aggregated the data so as to maintain confidentiality. Copies of this report can be downloaded via www.tolvik.com together with a 6-page summary extract. Third parties are entitled to freely use the contents of the report, subject to appropriately acknowledging its source. CONTENTS 1. LONDON AND THE SOUTH EAST ........................................................................................................... 3 2. RESIDUAL WASTE PROJECTIONS ........................................................................................................ 4 3. EFW CAPACITY ........................................................................................................................................ 6 4. RDF EXPORTS AND OTHER RESIDUAL WASTE TREATMENTS ........................................................ 9 5. RESIDUAL WASTE TO LANDFILL ......................................................................................................... 11 6. LANDFILL CAPACITY ............................................................................................................................. 13 7. SUMMARY OF ANALYSIS AND IMPLICATIONS ................................................................................... 23 APPENDIX 1: DATA TABLES ............................................................................................................................ 25 APPENDIX 2: GLOSSARY ................................................................................................................................. 27 APPENDIX 3: WASTE PLANNING OVERVIEW ................................................................................................ 28 APPENDIX 4: DATA SOURCES ........................................................................................................................ 29 Front Cover Image: Waste Transfer Courtesy: Veolia P a g e | 2 Residual Waste in London and the South East 1. LONDON AND THE SOUTH EAST Figure 1: London and the South East For the purposes of this report, London and the South East is defined as the area shaded green in Figure 1. It is comprised of London and South East regions (excluding Isle of Wight) together with the southern portion of the Eastern region including Cambridgeshire, which has historically received significant tonnages of waste from London and the South East. It is estimated that in 2017 the total tonnage of Residual Waste generated in London and the South East was 9.88Mt – around 35% of the total generated in the UK as a whole. Residual Residual Treatment Waste Sources Waste Mt Mt Residual Waste Treatment - 2017 UK EfW 4.19 1.72 LACW 5.86 RDF Export 36% EfW 42% RDF Export MBT Impact 0.26 MBT Co-Incineration 0.13 Co-Incineration C&I Landfill Landfill - L & SE 3.38 4.02 Waste 1% Landfill - Outside 0.20 3% 18% Total 9.88 Total 9.88 Figure 2: 2017 Residual Waste in London and the South East P a g e | 3 Residual Waste in London and the South East 2. RESIDUAL WASTE PROJECTIONS 2.1 Assumptions In this report Residual Waste tonnages have been projected under three scenarios – Limited Intervention, Central and Circular Economy (“CE”) Target. These have been informed by Tolvik’s own in-house analysis and our 2017 review of third-party Residual Waste projections/reports on behalf of the Environmental Services Association (“ESA Report”)(a). The scenarios assume a linear annual improvement towards the 2035 recycling targets set out in Figure 3, resulting in the average recycling rates in 2025 being modelled as shown. England Household Waste Municipal - like C&I Waste Scenario Recycling Rate Recycling Rate 2025 2035 2025 2035 Limited Intervention 46.7% 50.0% 61.5% 62.5% Central 49.0% 55.0% 62.0% 65.0% CE Target 51.4% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0% Figure 3: Recycling Rate Assumptions In projecting Household Waste recycling rates, the national recycling rates set out in Figure 3 have been applied and the performance of each local authority assumed to be relative to their 2016/17 recycling performance – i.e. low performing local authorities will remain low performing – rather than all local authorities achieving the same recycling rate. It has also been assumed that the recycling performance for any single local authority will be capped at 65%. The principle driver for Household Waste arisings has been assumed to be the projected number of households which, the Office of National Statistics projects, will grow in London and the South East by an average 1.23% pa through to 2025. This growth has been offset in Figure 4 by the assumed effects of resource efficiency (reduced waste production per household) on the arisings of waste per household. For C&I Waste, the assumed driver is GDP. However, as regional GDP projections are not generally available this report has used extrapolated national GDP growth projections compiled by HM Treasury(b) for the period to 2022 and adjusted at a regional level based on historic (2010-2016) GVA trends. Projections assume a GDP growth rate of 1.7% pa for the UK as a whole; the significantly higher historic growth rates seen in London and the South East means that this report assumes 2.04% p.a. headline growth for the region through to 2025. These have then been offset by the resource efficiency assumptions set out in Figure 4. Limited Central CE Target Intervention Growth in # Households to 2025 1.23% Household Reduction in Avge Waste per Household (0.25)% (0.50)% (0.75)% Waste Net Growth to 2025 0.98% 0.73% 0.48% GDP Growth 2.04% Municipal - like C&I Resource Efficiency (1.00)% (1.00)% (1.50)% Waste Net Growth to 2025 1.04% 1.04% 0.54% Figure 4: Waste Growth Assumptions for London and the South East P a g e | 4 Residual Waste in London and the South East 2.2 Projections Residual Waste in London and South East 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 Mt 7.0 6.0 5.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Limited Intervention Central CE Target Limited Central CE Target Mt Intervention Residual LACW 5.86 2017 Residual Municipal - like C&I Waste 4.02 Total Residual Waste 9.88 Residual LACW 5.97 5.81 5.67 2020 Residual Municipal - like C&I Waste 4.08 4.08 3.85 Total Residual Waste 10.05 9.89 9.51 Residual LACW 6.04 5.69 5.38 2025 Residual Municipal - like C&I Waste 4.27 4.21 3.71 Total Residual Waste 10.31 9.90 9.09 Figure 5: Projected Residual Waste in London and the South East In Figure 5, in the Central scenario, the drivers for growth in waste arisings are projected to be sufficient to offset the impact of modest increases in recycling. As a result, the projected tonnage of Residual Waste remains broadly unchanged from 2017. Meanwhile, a modest rise in Residual Waste is projected in the Limited Intervention scenario and an 8% decline in the CE Target scenario. P a g e | 5 Residual Waste in London and the South East 3. EFW CAPACITY 3.1 2017 Residual Waste Inputs Figure 6 details those EfWs which were operational in London and the South East in 2017. Residual Waste inputs to these facilities totalled 3.99Mt. Further details can be found in Appendix 1. Inputs (ktpa) EfW Location 2016 2017 1 Riverside Bexley 753 746 2 Edmonton Enfield 548 511 3 Allington Kent 513 484 4 SELCHP Lewisham 448 446 5 Lakeside Slough 436 456 6 Greatmoor Buckinghamshire 267 291 7 Ardley Oxfordshire 304 286 8 Newhaven East Sussex 233 223 9 Marchwood Southampton 204 202 10 Portsmouth Portsmouth 204 202 11 Chineham Hampshire 98 93 12 Lancing West Sussex 33 33 13 Milton Keynes ACT Milton Keynes - 17 Total to EfWs in London and South East 4,041 3,991 “Exports” of Residual Waste from London and the 132 267 South East to Severnside, South Gloucestershire Other “Exports” of Residual Waste from London 11 36 and the South East to EfWs Less: “Imports” of Residual Waste from outside
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