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Trends in Housing Affordability: Minnesota

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Trends in Housing Affordability: Minnesota Trends in Housing Affordability: Minnesota Thriving communities require a range of housing opportunities. Minnesota is recognized as a national leader for its commitment to ensuring that all families can afford ownership and rental homes. Nevertheless, housing has become too costly for growing numbers of low- and moderate-income Minnesotans. As housing affordability erodes, the number of Minnesotans burdened with excessive housing costs grows as well. Low- and moderate-income families are forced to choose between housing and other essentials like health care and nutrition. Local economies are negatively impacted as workers are forced to live outside of the communities that employ them due to the affordable housing shortage. All Minnesotans are affected when low- and moderate-income families cannot find affordable homes. Housing affordability is related to both to the cost of housing and income. The figure below demonstrates that increases in home values have far outpaced income increases in recent years. Trends in rent and income mirror each other more closely. Housing Cost and Income, Minnesota Median Home $200,000 Sale Price $150,000 $100,000 Median Household $50,000 Inc ome Median Rent $0 (annual) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Sources: MHP tabulation of home sales price, MN Department of Revenue; Household income and annual rent, American Community Survey. Note: Median rent in this figure includes utilities only when paid for by the landlord and included in the rent. With this information as a backdrop, the Trends in Housing Affordability gauge Minnesota's progress towards achieving homes for all. The charts illustrate changes over time with regards to rental and ownership affordability, housing costs relative to employment, homelessness, and foreclosures. All trend and technical information can be found at www.mhponline.org. 1 of 8 Households that spend more than 50 percent of household income on housing are considered “extremely cost burdened” by HUD. These households devote too much of their budget to housing, rather than to other necessities, like food or health care. Number of Households Spending at Least Half of Income on Housing, MN 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 Renters 80,000 Owners 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: MHP tabulation of American Community Survey (2001-2006) data. Share of Households Spending at Least Half of Income on Housing, MN 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: MHP tabulation of American Community Survey (2001-2006) data. 2 of 8 These charts compare income levels with housing costs for full time-workers in the four most common occupations and in essential service occupations in Minnesota. It illustrates the gap between what many people earn and what they can afford to pay for their homes. Housing Affordability by Most Common Occupations, Minnesota $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Retail salesperson median earnings Cashier median earnings Office clerk median earnings Food prep worker median earnings Income needed to rent median priced apt Income needed for median priced home Housing Affordability by Essential Service Occupations, Minnesota $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Childcare worker median earnings Registered nurse median earnings Middle school teacher median earnings Nursing aide median earnings Income needed to rent median priced apt Income needed for median priced home Sources: MHP tabulation of data from Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development Occupational Employment Statistics Data Tool; HUD Fair Market Rents; Minnesota Revenue Department Sales Ratio Study; Federal Housing Finance Board Monthly Interest Rate Survey (MIRS). 3 of 8 Households that spend more than 30 percent of household income on housing are considered “cost burdened” by HUD. These households devote too much of their budget to housing, rather than to other necessities, like food or health care. This chart shows that cost burden disproportionately affects lower income households. Distribution, by Income, of Households Paying at Least 30% of Income for Housing, Minnesota Homeowners Renters Zero or negative income Less than $20,000: $20,000 to $34,999: $35,000 to $49,999: $50,000 to $74,999: $75,000 or more: MN Median Income: $54,023 Source: MHP tabulation of American Community Survey (2001-2006) data. 4 of 8 In order to be affordable, housing should cost no more than 30% of income. This renter index compares what renters should pay (no more than 30% of their household income) to what renters actually do pay (median gross rent). If the median renter household is spending more than it should, the ratio will be less than one. Increases in the index indicate that housing costs are taking up less of a household’s budget, while decreases indicate that rental costs are consuming a greater share of income. The dashed line indicates that median rental housing for a median-income renter family has dropped to unaffordable levels. Renter Affordability Ratio, Minnesota 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: MHP tabulation of American Community Survey (2001-2006) data. 5 of 8 The Ownership Affordability Index measures whether or not a typical family can afford a median priced home, and is modeled after a similar index developed by the National Association of REALTORS®. This chart compares the upper limit of what a family can affordably pay for housing with what a median priced home actually costs. An index result of one indicates that a family earning the median area income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. A result that is greater than one means that a family earning the median area income earns more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a home at the median price. Declines in the index indicate that housing is becoming less affordable for a typical family. Owner Affordability Ratio, Minnesota 1.80 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Sources: MHP tabulation of HUD Income Limits, Minnesota Revenue Department Sales Ratio Study, and Federal Housing Finance Board Monthly Interest Rate Survey (MIRS), 2001-2006. 6 of 8 As fundamental as housing is, it is not available to many Minnesotans. Since 1991, when the Wilder Research Center first conducted its count of Minnesotans without permanent shelter, the number of people experiencing homelessness has more than doubled. Minnesota also has experienced large increases in the number of homeless children since that time. Without stable housing these individuals and families are among the state’s most vulnerable, facing enormous challenges on a daily basis. The hash marks for 2006 indicate increased outreach efforts by Wilder researchers over previous years to locate people not in shelters—please use caution when comparing counts of unsheltered people to previous years. People Experiencing Homelessness on a Single Night, Minnesota 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 All People in Shelters & Transitional Housing All People Not in Formal Shelters Children in Shelters & Transitional Housing Children Not in Formal Shelters Source: MHP tabulation of data from the Wilder Research Center surveys of Minnesotans without permanent housing (1991-2006). 7 of 8 The increase in foreclosures in Minnesota and across the nation has far reaching effects for families, neighborhoods, and our economy. Foreclosures displace both home owners and renters, thereby increasing the demand for affordable rental homes as families look for new places to live. Properties vacant due to foreclosure also decrease property values and reduce public safety, with economically vulnerable communities disproportionately shouldering the burden. For 2007, the projected number of sheriff’s sales in various metro areas were: 440 in Duluth; 14,900 in Twin Cities; 500 in Rochester; 580 in St. Cloud. Please note that most, but not all, sheriff’s sales ultimately result in foreclosure. Sheriff's Sales, Minnesota 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 (Projected) Percent Increase in Sheriff's Sales, 2005-2007 (projected) 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Minnesota Duluth Twin Rochester St. Cloud Other Cities Counties Source: MHP tabulation of Greater Minnesota Housing Fund and HousingLink data in “Foreclosures in Greater Minnesota,” October 31, 2007 supplement. 8 of 8 .
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