Factors Affecting the Willingness of Tourists to Visit Cultural Heritage Sites in Jordan

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Factors affecting the willingness of tourists to visit cultural heritage sites in Jordan

Ismaiel Naser Abuamoud, James Libbin, Janet Green & Ramzi ALRousan

To cite this article: Ismaiel Naser Abuamoud, James Libbin, Janet Green & Ramzi ALRousan (2014) Factors affecting the willingness of tourists to visit cultural heritage sites in Jordan, Journal of Heritage Tourism, 9:2, 148-165, DOI: 10.1080/1743873X.2013.874429

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1743873X.2013.874429

Published online: 20 Jan 2014.

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Download by: [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] Date: 05 April 2016, At: 01:55 Journal of Heritage Tourism, 2014 Vol. 9, No. 2, 148–165, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1743873X.2013.874429

Factors affecting the willingness of tourists to visit cultural heritage sites in Jordan ∗ Ismaiel Naser Abuamouda , James Libbinb, Janet Greenc and Ramzi ALRousand

aDepartment of Tourism Management, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan; bCollege of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, USA; cSchool of Hotel, Restaurant, and Tourism Management (HRTM), New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, USA; dDepartment of Sustainable Tourism, Hashemite University, Zarqa, Jordan (Received 31 January 2012; accepted 5 December 2013)

This study examined the factors affecting the willingness of tourists to visit the cultural heritage sites (CHS) located in the Northern Badia of Jordan, and estimated expenditures for their visit to the CHS. A questionnaire was developed to collect demographic and economic information about tourists during their visit to Jordan. Three hundred tourists were included in the survey at nine different sites during the summer of 2010. A logistic regression model was employed in the analyses. Factors that affected tourism at CHS included: education, variety of sites, multiple destinations, cost, and reasons for the visit. These factors had a signiﬁcant impact on tourists’ willingness to travel to CHS in the Northern Badia. This study recommends improving CHS and working closely with local communities to expand training and funding. Keywords: heritage tourism; economic development; Jordan; Bedouin; logistic model

Introduction The economic beneﬁts derived from tourism are tremendous and therefore often provide an attractive form of economic development through improving local communities’ economic situations by creating new jobs, new investments, and increasing government earnings through foreign exchange (Chandler & Costello, 2002). Worldwide growth in the tourism industry was recorded as one of the most signiﬁcant achievements over the last 50 years with an annual growth rate of 9%, generating 10% of the global gross domestic

Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016 product (GDP) (Honey & Krantz, 2007; Yeoman & Lederer, 2005). According to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) annual reports, worldwide arrivals grew by 5.5% in 2006. The Middle East attained the highest growth rate between 2000 and 2006 of 9%. It has been estimated that the Middle East will achieve an annual growth rate of 7.1% over the period 1995–2020 (UNWTO, 2004). The tourism sector contributed about US $622 billion and 210 million jobs to the global economy in 2004. These numbers are estimated to reach US $2 trillion and 305 million jobs in 2020 (Reid & Schwab, 2006).

∗Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

# 2014 Taylor & Francis Journal of Heritage Tourism 149

Cultural heritage is a topic that has recently attracted the attention of economists (Laplante, Meisner, & Wang, 2005). Cultural heritage tourism has become a major source of income, strengthening and diversifying a community’s economic base of several developing countries due to the strong linkage with several industries (Brink, 1998; Lee & Han, 2002; Mazimhaka, 2007). The demand for cultural heritage sites (CHS) by tourists is influenced by the availability of services provided by the government, as well as the willingness and viability of the local community to cooperate to stimulate tourism of historical sites (Lazrak, Nijkamp, & Rietveld, 2009; Maskey, Brown, Collins, & Nassar, 2007). The purpose of this study was to develop a model that identifies factors affecting the willingness of tourists to visit the CHS in Jordan’s Northern Badia, and the marginal impact of each of those factors. This study is designed to assess non-Arab tourists, because Arab culture shares significant commonalities among international lines and differences are not clearly demarcated by borders. Consequently, the CHS will likely not attract them, as the goal of these sites is to appeal to people looking for new attractions. This study will try to answer the following questions: what is the percentage of tourists arriving in Jordan who are willing to visit CHS, and what will be the anticipated economic return on local communities in the targeted region? The results of the study are expected to assist decision-makers in Jordan before implementing tourism projects in the Northern Badia. Willingness to travel (WTT) measures the values of what individuals report and is an attitudinal approach. It measures what they say, not what they do (Hanemann, 1991;Ng & Mendlesohn, 2006). This method helps economists and decision-makers estimate the impact of economic decisions and activities, as well as estimate the monetary value of all economic benefits that a society derives from public goods like cultural heritage resources (Poor & Smith, 2004; Nuva, Shamsudin, Radam, & Shuib, 2009). This technique helps to estimate the number of potential visitors to the region before any action is taken with respect to investment at the sites. WTT is also called the contingent activity method. It is a travel forecasting model and is a key component of estimating the volume of tourists who will travel to a certain site/sites (Heyes & Heyes, 1999). WTT assumes that the value of the site or its recreational services is reflected in how much people are willing to travel to visit the site (Navrud & Ready, 2002). The WTT models allow researchers to estimate the costs and benefits of adding or removing recreational activities to an existing or new site, because it helps determine whether people are willing to travel to the site before the public bears additional costs to implement a project (Samdin, 2008). On the other hand, this method assumes that respondents understand that what they

Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016 receive will reﬂect their preferences exactly. Also, respondents may answer the questions based on their feeling (positive or negative) at the time of the interview which might not always be right, or might be based on their understanding of the question (Holvad, 1999). Nevertheless, contingent methods are still one of the most useful and successful methods used to provide decision-makers the best picture about the importance of recreation on a site, especially with public goods which are not traded on the market (Alberini & Cooper, 2000).

Tourism indicators in Jordan The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is located in the Middle East, northeast of Saudi Arabia, south of Syria, west of Iraq, and east of Israel and the West Bank (Figure 1). The total area of Jordan is approximately 89,000 km2, including 540 km2 of surface water (Department of 150 I.N. Abuamoud et al. Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016

Figure 1. Location of Jordan. Source: http://travel-image.org/tag/jordan-map.

Land and Survey, 2009). In 1946, Jordan became an independent country and was ruled from 1953 to 1999 by King Hussein. It is now ruled by his son, King Abdullah II. In the early 1970s, the outward migration of young, highly qualiﬁed Jordanians, as well as the need for talented people in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, created an economic boom in Jordan that lasted until the early1980s (Piro, 1998). With the economic downturn in the Gulf countries in the mid-1980s, however, demand for Jordanian workers declined and remittances dropped. These factors, in addition to the ﬁrst and second Gulf wars and the number of refugees associated with the wars, lowered GDP Journal of Heritage Tourism 151

growth rates from an annual average of 10% over the period 1973–1980 to 3.2% for 2010 (CBJ, 2010a, 2010b; Knowles, 2005). During the 1990s, these events led the Jordanian government to implement liberalization policies, including privatization of public sector areas, such as the elimination of subsidies for animal feed. This policy had a negative impact on the income of herders and has led to an increase in poverty around the Badia. These policies also had a negative impact on poor communities, especially the Bedouin people, who have been the first to be hurt by financial crises and the last to benefit from economic prosperity. The economic and political events that swept the globe beginning in 2008 led to a decline in global tourism by approximately 7% (UNWTO, 2009). According to the UNWTO, in the first four months of 2011, international tourist arrivals grew by 4.5%, with the exception of the Middle East. Due to recent political developments, the Middle East has not seen the same growth. However, according to the Jordan Tourism Board (JTB), Jordan has witnessed a 23.4% increase in tourist arrivals between January and Sep- tember 2010, compared to the same period in 2009 (JTB, 2011). Tourism can be a critical component of the economy for a country with limited natural resources like Jordan (Table 1). According to the Central Bank of Jordan, tourist activity accounts for 13% of GDP and is one of the most important foreign exchange sources for the Jordanian economy with a figure at $1.3 billion in 2007 (UNWTO, 2005, 2006, 2008). The total revenue generated from entrance fees from all tourist sites in Jordan from January to September of 2010 was $10.2 million compared to $10.2 million for the same period in 2009. The Ministry of Tourism projects that more than 20 new hotels will be built in Petra and the Dead Sea within the next five years. As a direct result, these new investments are expected to create 12,000 jobs and 36,000 jobs indirectly. Jordan’s National Tourism Strategy for 2004–2010 was to add 50,000 new jobs through partnerships with private sector entities (MoT, 2011). Jordan’s CHS are considered as some of the most powerful draws for international visitors to the country (Dixon, 1998). Researchers have found that providing cultural and heritage sites with basic infrastructure, such as roads, appropriate hotels, restaurants, parking lots, souvenir shops, and sufficient information, is one of the most important components of a tourist attraction in any tourist region (Kweka, 2004; Montiuçon, 2002). During 2010, the tourism sector in Jordan achieved an income of $3.4 billion (CBJ, 2010a, 2010b). Revenues from the tourism sector increased by 25.7% compared to 2009.

Table 1. Number of employees in different tourism activities, 2007–2010. Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016 Activity 2007 2008 2009 2010 Hotels 13,193 13,994 14,690 15,080 Travel agencies 3408 3680 3981 4351 Tourism restaurants 13,472 15,498 16,517 17,345 Rent-a-car ofﬁces 1417 1500 1520 1520 Tourist shops 637 732 772 791 Tourist guides 686 803 855 988 Horses guides 613 713 713 713 Transportation comp. 814 881 879 939 Diving centers 45 45 45 48 Water sports 120 120 120 125 Total 34,405 37,966 40,092 41,900

Source: Ministry of Tourism & Antiquities. 152 I.N. Abuamoud et al.

According to the Central Bank of Jordan, the ﬁrst three months of 2011 showed that income from tourism increased 0.9% compared to the same period in 2010. Total revenue for the ﬁrst two months increased from US $414 million in 2010 to US $430 million in 2011, an increase due to a 4% increase in arrivals to Jordan for the same period. The cultural heritage tourism model is currently being applied to areas of the South Badia such as Petra and Wadi Rum. Therefore, we suggest that the same model can be applied in the Northern Badia as an economic development tool.

Northern Badia – a unique region In Jordan, the Northern Badia1 contains several attractive features including historical, environmental, and cultural sites around the region, including Umm Al Jimal, Umm Al- Qittayan, Dayr Al-Kahf, Jawa, and Qasr Asaykhm. The majority of these sites are slowly deteriorating due to negligence and lack of protection. In addition, there has been little marketing activity for these sites. Rehabilitating CHS in the Northern Badia may restore these unique cultural assets and help create jobs that can address poverty issues in the region. The study area has been a conduit for various civilizations over thousands of years. Human settlement in the region has existed for more than 5000 years in Jawa, a mysterious city originally settled by unknown people, and occupied by Roman and Byzantine civilizations during the third and fourth centuries, as well as the Islamic period during the seventh century (Helms, 1981). Residents of the Badia region (Bedouin) are known for their hospitality and their simplistic lifestyle, and have a great respect for the traditions that have been handed down through the generations (Bin-Mohammad, 1999). The Northern Badia is located in the Northeast corner of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan (Figure 2). The climate is dry and hot in the summer, with temperatures exceeding 388C. There is very little rain in the winter (between 50 and 200 mm on average). The study area lies within the boundaries of al-Mafraq and al-Zaraq governorates and includes 35 villages (Badia Research Program [BRP], 2000). Badu or Bedouin2 historically moved from place to place seeking grazing areas for their livestock. Successive drought seasons, along with rapid development in government services such as education, health, transportation, and telecommunications during the 1980s Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016

Figure 2. Map of study area. Modiﬁed by the author. Journal of Heritage Tourism 153

and 1990s, led to a decline in their dependence on livestock as their main source of income. In 2008, the total population in the study area was only 28,619 (Department of Statistics [DoS], 2008), with a growth rate of 3.1% per annum and average family size of 7.3 compared to 5.5 nationwide. The census of 2008 shows that 40.3% of the region’s population was under 15 years of age, compared to 35.9% for the whole country. Approximately 55% of the Northern Badia population are of school age (elementary to high school); however, the percentage of illiteracy in the region is roughly 15.8%, compared to 7.9% in the whole Kingdom. The number of individuals holding a Bachelor’s degree and higher is about 5.9%, compared to 11.2% for the entire country (DoS, 2008). Northern Badia residents depend on varying sources of income including retirement pensions, government employment, business ownership, or agriculture. The median annual income in the study in 2008 was approximately US $1204. Poverty rates within the Northern Badia range between 39.6% in Dayr Al-Kahf and 69.3% in Rewash. The unemployment rate is roughly 32% compared to 12.9$% among Jordanians as a whole (DoS, 2009). Previous statistics indicate that the study area is in urgent need of intervention to create jobs and ensure that local communities participate in the decision-making process (BRP, 2008).

Literature review No previous studies have been conducted in Jordan to answer the questions this study poses. In addition, very few studies have discussed tourism as a potential economic development tool in the Badia of Jordan. Al-Oun and Al-Homoud (2008) proposed a cultural heritage pilot project to be implemented in the Northern Badia of Jordan with an emphasis on the uniqueness of the region’s cultural assets. This included Bedouin hospitality and cultural materials such as Bedouin spinning using handmade natural dyes and wool weaving. The study also mentioned the potential importance of historic sites in the area, which would add an additional attraction for tourists. The Jordanian government has already targeted several heritage sites as potential tourism attractions and for local community development. According to Al-Oun and Al-Homoud (2008), the local community has had no role in decision-making regarding investing in these sites. Therefore, they suggested implementing a pilot project emphasizing cooperation between the local communities as an none government organization entity and a public–private partnership. The US Department of Commerce (Craine 2005) reported that the importance of cultural heritage tourism grew rapidly over the last decade and that the economy in some

Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016 states depends on cultural and heritage tourism as a tool for community economic development. The Department of Statistics report focused on the importance of the distinctive cultural and historical characteristics of each region and how to maximize the benefits of the unique characteristics of each area. The top 10 travel and tourism trends reported in the USA (Randall, 2007) show that at least 55.1 million Americans could be classified as cultural and heritage tourists; those tourists who were interested in discovering unique historical and cultural sites. Mandala (2009) reported that 78% of American tourists experienced cultural heritage events during their holiday travels. Local food, craft fairs, and festivals are at the top of the list. Tourism has a significant impact on destination communities and countries. These impacts, typically classified as economic, sociocultural, and environmental, may be both positive and negative. As a result, the focus should be on developing sustainable tourism. Communities can utilize heritage and cultural assets by sharing them with tourists 154 I.N. Abuamoud et al.

(Hawkes & Kwortnik, 2006). For example, tourism has the potential to impact neighbor- hoods, as well as property values in a positive way (Caton & Santos, 2007). These economic benefits come from rehabilitation and adaptive reuse of heritage buildings and cultural characteristics embodied in the place (Chen, 2001; Mark, Mathews, Dai, Hayes, & Cave, 2007). Cultural heritage tourism is promoted in many places in the world as an economic development tool. In Jacmel, Haiti, before the devastating earthquake in 2010, local communities produced handmade paper, wood arts, and organized festivals that hosted more than 300,000 national and international visitors each year. After 2010, local communities in Jacmel planned to use cultural heritage tourism to rebuild their town (Turgeon & Divers, 2011). In Kurokawa Onsen, Japan, the uniqueness of the area encourages local entrepreneurs to implement flexible and long-lasting social and economic benefits around the heritage assets of the region (McMorran, 2008). A recent project established a series of heritage routes in the Eastern Cape of South Africa which generated additional income as a result of increased visitor spending within the local economy. Furthermore, the project helped protect the heritage sites for future generations (Snowball & Courtney, 2010). In Gaborone and Maun, Botswana, tourism has grown rapidly. Seventy-seven percent of residents in these areas reported that tourism has generated employment opportunities for local communities and improved infrastructure and social services (Moswete, Thapa, Toteng, & Mbaiwa, 2008). The cooperation and participation of local communities in the tourism development process are vital; community participation in decision-making has a significant impact on sustainability of tourism projects (Landorf, 2009; Timothy, 1999). Because of the enclave characteristics of tourism, local communities need to learn the skills necessary to run tourism businesses (Hayes & MacLeod, 2007; Mbaiwa, 2005). While it is often pursued for its economic development potential, the impact of tourism is not limited to an economic impact (Tanaka, Tanaka, Yamaguchi, & Tamagawa, 2005); tourism has a sociocultural impact as well (Dadswell & Beyers, 2007). The human interaction that frequently occurs between tourists and host populations may help improve regional economics and reduce conflict through enhancing friendliness among people (Jamieson, 2000). Tourism also has social and political implications that can bridge the distance between people and expand the community horizon; improving a community’s economic situation will encourage people to stay in the area (Picard, 2008). On the other hand, other studies suggest that foreign tourists may have a negative impact on the host culture (Al-Oun & Al-Homoud, 2008). Perhaps, the greatest concern regarding the development of cultural heritage tourism is that the increased numbers of

Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016 tourists can lead to problems with maintaining the environment. There is a strong connec- tion between tourism and the environment; tourism, more than any other business, depends on a healthy environment (Munro & Yeoman, 2005). However, a negative environmental impact can occur if tourism is not well managed (Honey & Krantz, 2007). Overcrowding, misuse of natural resources, haphazard and unplanned construction of buildings and infrastructure, and other activities associated with tourism impact the environment (Ceballos, 1996). Aitchison (2001) notes that “Tourism contains the seeds of its own destruction. Tourism can kill tourism, destroying the very environmental attractions which visitors come to a location to experience”. Some of the impact, however, can be controlled, regu- lated, or directed. If properly managed, tourism has the potential for maintaining, or even enhancing the natural resource base. If mismanaged, or allowed to expand with only short- term goals and objectives, it has the capability of destroying the very resources upon which tourism is built. Journal of Heritage Tourism 155

In recent years, the demand for cultural heritage destinations has become a major force in global tourism (Skuras, Dimara, & Petr, 2006). Poria, Butler, and Airey (2004) addressed two important questions: Do the heritage attributes of the site encourage people to visit? Do people perceive it as part of their own heritage? Zeppel (2002) studied the characteristics of those interested in visiting CHS. She found that retirees and teachers are the most likely to visit heritage and cultural sites. Silberberg (1995) also found that education level and income are associated with people who travel to cultural heritage destinations. A study by the US Department of Commerce (Craine 2005) found that 62% of US travelers like to learn about other cultures when they travel and 52% prefer to travel to areas with a wide variety of cultural attractions. Approximately 77% of British tourists agree that they like to discover new cultures and try local foods when they travel to new areas. In addition, most travelers are willing to pay for accommodations run by local communities. Several factors that inﬂuence tourists’ behavior have been studied, including location, climate, landscape, environment, tourism facilities, and amenities. Cultural and historical factors all play an important role in the decisions that tourists make (Aro, Vartti, Schreck, Turtiainen, & Uutela, 2009; Hadwen, Arthington, Boon, Taylor, & Fellows, 2011). Kruger and Saayman (2009) studied the factors that motivate tourists to visit speciﬁc sites. The study found that destination criterion that increased tourist relaxation was one of the most important factors. Characteristics of the tourist (socioeconomic factors) and destination are the attributes examined as factors that drive visitors to CHS (Willis, 2009). Several key determinants were developed in the previous literature to study tourist behavior, including socioeconomic indicators such as education, age, income, marital status, family size, and visitor satisfaction (Khodaverdizadeh & Kelas, 2009; Lee, Lee, & Mjelde, 2009). The impact of distance and variety on tourist behavior has been studied as well (Nicolau, 2006). Relatively few studies have examined the factors that cause tourists to visit heritage sites. Likewise, no previous study has investigated the factors that affect tourist decisions to visit Jordan. This study attempts to identify the factors that affect the willingness of tourists to visit the CHS in Jordan’s Northern Badia region, as well as estimating the number of tourists to anticipate the economic impact on the local communities.

Data and method A survey instrument was created to search out factors that affect tourists’ willingness to visit CHS in Jordan’s Northern Badia region. Primary data were collected through a survey administered to tourists at nine different sites in Jordan: Petra, Azraq, Ajlun, Um Qais,

Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016 Wadi Rum, Amman, Jerash, Aqaba, and Madaba. Several key determinants in previous studies have been used, such as age, income, education, multi-destination, and variety seeking, for improvement of service quality in CHS (Reynisdottira, Songb, & Agrusa, 2008). The survey was developed to address the study objectives and to answer the study questions. Three hundred respondents were asked 32 questions in the summer of 2010. The questions were designed in a way to measure the variables used in the study model. Participants were asked if they were willing to travel additional distances in response to availability of some environmental, cultural, and historical amenities, as well as availability of accommodations. In this survey, respondents were informed of the CHS in the region by providing them with maps showing the place and the distance between their current location and the newly listed sites. They were also provided with brief information about the history of these sites in addition to pictures of the archeological sites in the study area. Throughout the survey 156 I.N. Abuamoud et al.

process, the researcher was available to answer respondents’ questions. Tourists were encouraged to complete the survey either individually or in a group;3 some readily completed the survey, while others declined to answer the questions. Study participants were asked questions regarding characteristics such as gender, education, and age. Another group of questions pertained to the characteristics of the place they were willing to visit, such as local food, crafts, and cultural amenities. The third group of questions were related to the regional factors such as where the respondent came from and, if he or she visited other countries during the same trip to Jordan. The fourth group asked about the purposes for the tourist’s visit (e.g. holiday or business trip). The respondents were also given an option of providing their suggestions and comments about their visit to Jordan. Secondary data for this study were secured from the Ministry of Tourism. Information gathered from the Ministry of Tourism’s website, such as the number of tourists over the past ﬁve years, the average nights stayed per tourist, and the average daily expenditure per tourist, contributed to estimate the “Anticipated Economic Return” of developing CHS in the Northern Badia. Logistic regression is a common method used to examine the marginal impact of explanatory variables on the probability that a particular result for a dichotomous dependent variable is observed. Logistic models are predictive models that can be used when the target variable is a categorical variable with two categories, for example, yes/no or male/female and with continuous variables with values between 0 and 1. Logistic models are often the most preferred models used in the ﬁeld of recreation studies (Capps & Kramer, 1985). The marginal effect of each explanatory variable Xi will be a factor in the total probability value. The general form of the logistic formula is given in Equation (1) below: 1 P = , (1) i (1 + exp ( − (Z)))

where Pi denotes the probability that individual i will say “yes” for the question related to traveling an additional distance to visit the CHS. Z = b1 + b2X2i + b3X3i +···+ bnXni+ui. The subscript i refers to the ith respondent. Xs represents the predictor variables such as income, education, and age that determine Pi, and b is the vector of the coefﬁcient of the descriptive variables. Zi can be calculated along with Pi for each individual, given the respondent’s socioeconomic characteristics (e.g. income, age, and education). Using Equation (1) guarantees that the value of Pi will be between 0 and 1. The marginal effect of Xs can be computed by the logistics model and then, using the following equation:

Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016 dp = B ∗ (P ) ∗ (1 − P ). (2) dx i i

The marginal effect of each explanatory variable Xs shows how the probability Pi will change for one unit change in speciﬁc X,(dp/dx). Including the variable in the model will yield: 1 ln = b1 + b2x(gender) + b3x(income) + b4x(education) + b5x(age) 1 − pi (3) + b6x(history) + b7x(region) + b8x(cost) + b9x(visocount)

+ b10x(vseekng) + b11x(rfv).

The dependent and independent variables are deﬁned as Journal of Heritage Tourism 157

Dependent Variable (WTT): Probability of WTT additional distance to visit the newly listed sites identified in the Northern Badia. The input data for response will have the value 1 if the answer is “yes” and 0 if the answer is “no”. The response value predicted by the model represents the percentage of tourists who would be willing to visit the CHS in the Northern Badia. The predicted probability will be between 0 and 1, but cannot be outside of these values. This is an advantage of using the logistic model as opposed to a linear regression model where there would be no limit on the values. Independent variable Region: Region the visitor is from, i.e. Europe, North America, South America, and Asia. Gender, income, education, and age: Socioeconomic characteristics of the respondent. Cost: Cost in Jordan. It is a continuous variable, “extremely satisfied” to “extremely unsatisfied”. Visocount: Asked if the tourist visited other countries during his or her visit to Jordan. This is a dummy variable with 1 if the answer is “yes” and 0 if the answer is “no”. Vseekng: WTT further distances to experience new types of attractions (for example, trying Bedouin food). This is a dummy variable with 1 if the answer is “yes” and 0 if the answer is “no”. Rfv: Reason for the visit of individual i to site j (holiday, business, wildlife watching, and religious reason). For the purposes of this study, only (holiday) was included as a dummy variable in the analysis, with value 1 if the person was visiting Jordan for leisure and 0 otherwise. To assess the overall goodness of fit of the model, the study hypothesis is Ho: the data do not fit the model well. With Ha: the model fits the data well. To test this hypothesis, the Hosmer–Lemeshow H–L goodness of fit test was used. This test is used in SPSS and rec- ommended for a binary logistic regression model (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 2000).4 The insig- nificant result with 0.888 indicated that the model adequately fits the data at an acceptable level. The correct classified prediction percentage of the model (classified ¼ 77%) is acceptable as well; which means that the predicted outcomes matched the observed outcomes with 77% accuracy (Schinka, 1999).

Results A total of 300 questionnaires were completed and included in the analyses. The results show that 74% of the respondents are willing to visit the CHS by answering yes to the question “are you willing to visit the cultural heritage sites in the Northern Badia?” and 68% of

Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016 those who answered afﬁrmatively are willing to stay overnight in CHS. While 56% of these respondents prefer to stay only one night, the rest are willing to stay longer in the CHS. These percentages will be used to estimate the anticipated return later. The results also indicated that 13.4% of the multi-destination visitors came through Egypt and 15.4% mentioned Syria, while about 14% mentioned two to three different countries they planned to visit in addition to Jordan including Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, West Bank, and Israel were the most common destinations for arrivals to Jordan. This result is important for decision-makers in Jordan; regional collaboration between these countries is essential to building a comprehensive marketing plan. The study found that 73% of the tourists came for holiday/leisure, 13% for business, 2% for wildlife watching, 2% for religious reasons, and 10% for other reasons. Table 2 shows the demographic characteristics of the study sample. The demographic characteristics show that 14.7% of the study sample earned below $40,000 in annual income and 61% earned $71,000 or more. More than 158 I.N. Abuamoud et al.

Table 2. Demographic proﬁle of respondents. Characteristic Category Frequency Percent Gender Female 144 48.0 Male 156 52.0 Age Less than 20 years 13 4.3 20–29 years 51 17.0 30–39 years 76 25.3 40–49 years 54 18.0 50–59 years 47 15.7 Above 60 years old 59 19.7 Marital status Single 100 33.3 Married 182 60.7 Widowed/divorced 18 6.0 Income Less than $30,000 29 9.7 $31,000–$40,000 15 5.0 $41,000–$50,000 26 8.7 $51,000–$60,000 20 6.7 $61,000–$70,000 24 8.0 $71,000–$80,000 65 21.7 More than $80,000 118 39.3 Education Less than high school 8 2.7 High school 29 9.7 Some college 40 13.3 BA 101 33.7 Vocational 12 4.0 MS 84 28.0 Ph.D., MD 26 8.7 Area of study Education 40 13.3 Physical science 33 11.0 History 159 53.0 Other 66 22.0 Party Alone 36 12.0 Group visiting 173 57.7 Family visiting 78 26.0 Group and family 13 4.3

70% of the study sample hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, while only 13% have a high school diploma or less. The majority of the study sample ages ranged from 30 to 59 years old, with only 21.3% of the study sample less than 30 years old, and only 19.7% above 60; 60.7% of the individuals were married.

Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016 Table 3 presents the demographic characteristics of the respondents willing and unwilling to travel to the CHS. Table 3 shows that female respondents tended to be less likely to travel to the CHS. In addition, people between the ages of 20 and 59 were more willing to travel than older individuals. The result of the logistic model analysis and the marginal impact of each explanatory variable are given in Table 4. By applying Equation (1), Pi ¼ 0.78, given the explanatory variables included in this model, the estimated probability of respondents’ willingness to visit the CHS is approximately 78%. The next step is to apply Equation (2) to find the marginal impact of each explanatory variable in Pi (Table 4). Table 5 shows the significant variables and the marginal impact of each variable on Pi. It was found that income, education, visiting another country, variety seeking, and reason for the visit were the determinants of respondents’ WTT and have significant impact on Pi. Income was found to be significant at a Wald statistic of 4.76 and a p-value of 0.03. Journal of Heritage Tourism 159

Table 3. Demographic characteristics of tourists willing and unwilling for traveling. Willing Unwilling Description n % n % Gender Male 119 53 37 48 Female 104 47 40 52 Education Less than HS 3 1 5 6 HS 22 10 7 8 Some collage 31 15 9 10 BA 67 31 34 39 MS 69 32 15 17 Ph.D. 21 10 5 6 Region North America 61 28 12 15 South America 2 1 5 6 Asia 15 7 6 7 Australia 9 4 0 0 Europe 132 60 49 60 Income Less than $30,000 19 9 10 13 $31,000–$40,000 9 4 6 8 $41,000–$50,001 17 8 9 11 $51,000–$60,002 13 6 7 9 $61,000–$70,003 18 8 6 8 $71,000–$80,004 51 23 14 18 More than $80,000 93 42 25 31 Age Less than 20 years 8 4 5 6 20–2936161519 30–3961271519 40–4938171621 50–5932141519 Above 60 years 48 22 11 14

This indicated that income is signiﬁcantly different at the 0.05% level. Table 5 shows that while other variables are controlled, the marginal effect of income is estimated at 3%. This indicated that for a change in income of one unit, the probability of WTT to the CHS will be

Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016 changed by 3%. Gender is not statistically significant with a Wald statistic of 0.18 and a p-value of 0.665. The variable North America has no significance with the Wald statistics at 0.3% and a p-value of 0.58%. A visitor from South America is statistically significant at a p-value of 1%, but has a negative marginal effect on the probability of WTT to the CHS of 33%. Visi- tors from Europe and Asia were not found to be statistically significant but had a negative marginal effect of probability between 25% and 213% (Table 5). Areas of study (history) were not significant with a p-value of 0.41%. The age of respondents was not statistically significant at a p-value of 0.05%. The variable cost in Jordan was significant at a p-value of 1% and a negative impact on marginal probability of 28%. Purpose of the visit (business) was found to be significant at a p-value of 0.023, with 216% in marginal probability. About 12% of the study sample visited Jordan for business reasons. This group of people comes to Jordan for a specific purpose, so they 160 I.N. Abuamoud et al.

Table 4. Descriptive statistics for the independent variables’ levels used in the model. Variables Min Max Mean SD Gender 0 1 0.52 0.50 Income 1 7 5.23 2.05 Education 1 7 4.45 1.58 Age 1 6 3.83 1.50 Area of study (history) 0 1 0.08 0.27 Visocount (visit other country) 0 1 0.54 0.50 Vseekng (try Bedouin food) 0 1 0.93 0.26 Costinjo (cost in Jordan) 1 4 2.56 0.64 Region (Europe) 0 1 0.60 0.49 Region (North America) 0 1 0.24 0.43 Region (South America) 0 1 0.02 0.15 Region (Asia) 0 1 0.07 0.26 Rfv (holiday) 0 1 0.03 0.33 Dependent variable – WTT 0.00 1.00 0.74 0.44

Table 5. Parameter estimation results. Variables B SE Wald Sig. dp/dx Gender 0.13 0.30 0.19 .66 .02 Income 0.15 0.07 4.76 .03∗∗ .03 Education 0.18 0.10 3.43 .06∗ .03 Age 0.11 0.10 1.13 .29 .02 Area of study (history) 0.50 0.60 0.69 .41 .09 Visocount (visit other country) 20.64 0.32 4.07 .04∗∗ 2.11 Vseekng (try Bedouin food) 1.26 0.53 5.71 .02 .22 Costinjo (cost in Jordan) 20.44 0.24 3.35 .07∗ 2.08 Region (Europe) 20.31 0.61 0.25 .62 2.05 Region (North America) 0.38 0.68 0.31 .58 .07 Region (South America) 21.91 1.10 3.04 .08∗ 2.33 Region (Asia) 20.76 0.80 0.90 .34 2.13 Rfv (business) 20.95 0.42 5.14 .02∗∗ 2.16 Constant 0.26 1.10 0.06

∗When p value , 0.05. ∗∗When p value . 0.05.

are less likely to visit the CHS. Regarding those who visited other countries on the same trip Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016 as their visit to Jordan, multi-destination visitors (Table 5) show that this variable has a negative effect with a Wald statistic of 4.07, a p-value of 0.044, and a marginal probability of 211%. The negative signs of the marginal probability indicate that tourists visiting other countries on the same trip are less likely to visit the CHS. Since a multi-destination trip involves more time, money, and planning, tourists may not be willing to travel to new sites. The independent variable “variety seeking” was found to be signiﬁcant with a Wald statistic of 5.71, a p-value of 0.017, and a marginal effect of 22% on the probability of WTT to the CHS.

Anticipated economic return The anticipated economic impact refers to the overall changes in sales, income, employment, and other activity generated by this project in the targeted area. One of the end Journal of Heritage Tourism 161

Table 6. Anticipated economic return. Average Based on the study 68% of the 56% of the 68% 441,812 number of results, 74% of 74% willing willing to stay visitors∗average visitors to the respondents say to stay one night/and expenses/person/ surveyed sites they are willing overnights in this is the night ($361) during the to visit the CHS the CHS percentage last ﬁve years used 1,567,866 1,160,221 visitors 788,950 441,812 visitors About $160 million visitors visitors

goals of this study was to generate economic benefits for communities by introducing different CHS to tourists. In such areas, even a few jobs may have a significant impact on the communities since population densities are low and employment alternatives are scarce, which leads to a high poverty rate in the Northern Badia. The impacts of this project can be divided into three main outcomes: direct, indirect, and induced. Direct impact results from visitors’ spending on services associated with the site itself, such as restaurants, transportation, and local handcrafts. Such businesses will hire local people and buy local raw materials, thus generating indirect impacts. Induced impacts are results of economic prosperity of the local community, where they will spend some of their earnings within their own community for various services. The anticipated economic return for the Northern Badia community can be estimated based on the results of the percentage of those who are willing to stay one night in the Northern Badia (56%). The average number of tourists who visited the surveyed area during the last five years was 1,567,866 per year. These results suggest that 441,812 tourists are willing to stay one night in the CHS (Table 6). According to information released by the Ministry of Tourism and the Central Bank, the average expenditure per tourist per night in Jordan is approximately US $361. This includes entrance fees, hospitality services (restaurants and hotels), camel back tours, handicraft sales, and lodging, which are all direct sources of revenue for local communities. Given this information, we estimate that the expenditure will be about US $160 million5 in the national economy, not just in the Badia area. Impacts of the project will enhance both the social and financial status of the Northern Badia inhabitants at various levels. Economic returns associated with cultural heritage tourism tend to be tangible. When visitors spend money on lodging, food, handicrafts, and other services, they create new jobs for local and non-local residents. Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016 Management implications and conclusions The tourism industry is complex partially because of the competition between countries in the Middle East to attract a large number of tourists. The picture painted by a tourist through his or her first impression is very important. These are an essential marketing tool after they return home. The results show that many respondents considered a return to Jordan and more than 90% would encourage their friends to visit Jordan. Therefore, essential services such as signs, restaurants, rest rooms, parking lots, and local products must be provided to tourists at destination sites. A significant shift in tourism patterns has occurred in the last few years (Shdeifat, Kassinos, & Amarin, 2007). Tourists seek to understand the authenticity of local communities. In this study, it was found that 86% of respondents most enjoyed the cultural and historical aspects of Jordan. For that reason, decision-makers must think seriously about 162 I.N. Abuamoud et al.

how to invest in the cultural heritage assets of local communities and provide opportunities for tourists at a reasonable price, as well as provide high-quality services. This cannot happen without the participation of local communities in the process of hosting and managing the sites, as well as strengthening their interaction with tourists. Providing sufficient information online, and creating a tourism assets inventory of Jordan, will be helpful in attracting additional tourists and new money. To achieve this goal, all information about the historical and cultural sites in Jordan, as well as information about cost, hotels, attractions, and activities, needs to be combined into one website for easy access online. Extending tourist stays in Jordan should be the main goal of both the Department of Tourism and the private sector, as this means that additional money will be spent. Developing the CHS in the Northern Badia to encourage tourists to stay longer in the country should be an objective of future tourism development plans. The Badia area is rich in cultural assets and Bedouin people are well known for their hospitality, as are all Jordanian areas. Helping locals re-establish and re-affirm their cultural heritage via cultural museums and short movies on Bedouin culture will help promote the Badia area. Additional funding, assistance from experts, hospitality training, and the building of a Bedouin tourist village in the Northern Badia can all pay great dividends. These types of projects will create job opportunities and improve the economy both locally and nationally. An additional overnight stay at the new sites will greatly impact tourists’ WTT to the CHS. Therefore, the new sites should accom- modate tourists. Simple, environmentally friendly lodging using solar energy and recycled materials, as well as American/European-style hotels, is essential. Entrance fees for some historical sites should also be examined. For most attractions, such as the Desert Castles, entrance fees are far below what they should be. For entry into three historical sites, it costs the tourist less than $1.50 to visit all three, whereas the entrance fees to Petra are approximately $50 for international tourists. Some Petra visitors complained that the entrance fee to the site is high, compared to the services that are provided. The revenue from entrance fees should be directly applied to improving services at the sites. Tourism is an important contributor to the Jordanian economy, yet there is room for improvement. Improving services in the Badia cultural areas will attract additional tourists and improve the economy. However, no previous specialized study has been done in Jordan to affirm this. This is the first study designed to examine the willingness of tourists to travel to these CHS that will benefit local communities by developing tourism services, as well as site conservation. The results of this study are important in understanding the key factors needed in implementing an economic development plan in the targeted area. Downloaded by [Jordan Univ. of Science & Tech] at 01:55 05 April 2016

Notes 1. Badia, or badiya, which means desert. From the Arabic root bada, meaning “to be obvious, clear” (Bin-Mohammad, 1999). 2. People who live in the Badia. 3. Most of the tourists who come to Jordan come in groups. The researcher met with some of the groups and talked to them about the study. Several agreed to complete the survey. 4. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test groups the observations into 10 groups and compares observed groups with the number predicted by the logistic regression. The non-signiﬁcant outcome indicated that the model prediction does not signiﬁcantly differ from the observation. 5. The average expenditure/day/tourist∗estimated number of tourists willing to visit the CHS ¼ $361× 441,812 ¼ $159,494,208. Journal of Heritage Tourism 163

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