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The Covid-19 Pandemic: A Global Outlook Edited by Dr Tarek Cherkaoui The Covid-19 Pandemic: A Global Outlook Edited by Dr Tarek Cherkaoui Essays by Assoc. Prof. Şener Aktürk Michael Arnold Mustafa Metin Başbay Dr Serkan Birgel Dr Tarek Cherkaoui Ravale Mohydin 2 The Covid-19 Pandemic: A Global Outlook © TRT WORLD RESEARCH CENTRE ALL RIGHTS RESERVED PUBLISHER TRT WORLD RESEARCH CENTRE May 2020 EDITED BY Dr Tarek Cherkaoui AUTHORS Assoc. Prof. Şener Aktürk Michael Arnold Mustafa Metin Başbay Dr Serkan Birgel Dr Tarek Cherkaoui Ravale Mohydin DESIGNED BY Erhan Ağırgöl COVER PHOTO Abdullah Coşkun - ANADOLU AGENCY PHOTO CREDIT ANADOLU AGENCY TRT WORLD İSTANBUL AHMET ADNAN SAYGUN STREET NO:83 34347 ULUS, BEŞİKTAŞ İSTANBUL / TURKEY TRT WORLD LONDON 200 GRAYS INN ROAD, WC1X 8XZ LONDON / UNITED KINGDOM TRT WORLD WASHINGTON D.C. 1819 L STREET NW SUITE, 700 20036 WASHINGTON DC / UNITED STATES www.trtworld.com researchcentre.trtworld.com The Covid-19 Pandemic: A Global Outlook 3 Table of Contents 05 Foreword 07 Preface 08 Editor’s note 10 Contributors 12 Part 1: A Global Outlook 14 Brace for Impact: The Coronavirus Pandemic and the Brave New World to Come 30 Covid-19 and the US Economy: Global Ramifications 40 After the Deluge: A Post-Pandemic Comparative Perspective on Politics and Society 51 Part 2: Responses to the Covid-19 Pandemic: Global Case Studies 52 Managing the Pandemic: Turkey’s Multi-Pronged Response to Covid-19 84 Between Economics, Epidemiology, and Social Behaviour: Europe’s War Against Coronavirus 92 The Coronavirus Pandemic in South Asia: Challenges and Responses 102 Under the Weather: Healthcare Systems in an Age of Pandemics 4 The Covid-19 Pandemic: A Global Outlook The Covid-19 Pandemic: A Global Outlook 5 Foreword İbrahim Eren Director General and Chairman, TRT Cov- his edited book, The igation of the most severe impacts of the id-19 Pandemic: A Global virus. However, in the majority of cases Outlook , is a praiseworthy across the globe, this crisis has laid bare and timely effort by the many other predicaments. The conse- TRT World Research Cen- quences of years of underfunded health- tre during these difficult care systems have been stark. Hospitals times. I am proud to present this work, are overwhelmed, personal protective which has analysed various dynamics of equipment stock is insufficient, and many the Covid-19 pandemic, ranging from its emergency plans have proven to be de- economic ramifications to its impact on ficient. the world order. More research on Covid-19 still remains While domestic responses are still on- to be carried out. With the strong demand going, it is important to examine how the by an anxious population worldwide, I am virus has caused a dramatic change in positive that editors around the globe will the lives of billions of people. With climate be prioritising publications of coronavi- change only worsening, this pandemic rus-related papers, and that the publica- perhaps provides a snapshot of the sac- tions on this subject will quickly grow. It is rifices that may be necessary to save our indeed critical that nations know where planet. weaknesses in their respective defences lie and address them accordingly. A few countries, such as Turkey, have been blessed to have proactive govern- Overall, the TRT World Research Centre ments and were able to provide an ade- has put forward this collection of essays quate response to the pandemic. These in a timely manner. This edited book, with nations have been privileged to have its insightful and far-reaching global out- proper planning, robust health infrastruc- look, is a valuable contribution to the liter- ture, and a competent body of medical ature currently available on the Covid-19 personnel, which has allowed for the mit- pandemic. 6 The Covid-19 Pandemic: A Global Outlook The Covid-19 Pandemic: A Global Outlook 7 Preface Pınar Kandemir Director of Research and Training, TRT he TRT World Research Centre World Research Centre includes seven contri- has compiled this edited book butions from its researchers and senior fellows, from the contributions of a writing from diverse perspectives. This book select group of distinguished offers a multi-disciplinary approach, ranging authors. Its main scope con- from international relations to economics. It also cerns the Covid-19 pandemic highlights various angles, such as the role of and its implications on a global neoliberalism in the post-pandemic world, Tur- level. It is divided into two main key’s multi-pronged response, and challenges parts - namely, macro and micro-level analyses in South Asia. While it is a collection of contribu- of some of the most important dynamics of the tions, the whole offers a more exhaustive picture pandemic to emerge thus far. than the sum of its parts. Covid-19 has thrown a spanner in the works for TRT World Research Centre has produced this national governments across the world. Econ- book on the repercussions of Covid-19 while omies have ground to a halt due to a virus that it is still in its formative stages. The multi-disci- is one ten-thousandth of a millimetre in size. In plinary perspective utilised also allows readers the meantime, various domestic priorities have to engage with the concepts discussed from a had to be suspended in light of the pandemic. variety of pertinent angles. The latter includes This makes these circumstances ample ground examining the new world yet to emerge; one in for an in-depth analysis, with the pandemic hav- which people accept national boundaries are ing ramifications on wide-ranging areas such as artificial, that chains are only as strong as their economic policy, supply chain diversification, weakest link, and that epidemic preparation is and national budgets. worthwhile. Additionally, increased surveillance may be normalised, and the strength of the na- Think tanks are an important resource and have tion-state may be boosted. Indeed, the world is a fundamental role in keeping fast-developing set to face turbulent times in the months and affairs in perspective. They shape national pol- years to come. icy agendas, bringing together new ideas and specialised knowledge with policymaking. The TRT World Research Centre is proud to present TRT World Research Centre is a think tank that this valuable contribution to the currently limit- produces multifaceted research to facilitate the ed literature on the Covid-19 pandemic and its development of more effective policy options repercussions. There is much for policymakers while looking at the whole picture in order to ad- to tackle, and we hope that our analyses can be vance pragmactic solutions. enlightening and instructive in that regard. The world will come out of this crisis more resilient; With respect to the Covid-19 pandemic, the pandemic preparation will be emphasised, and TRT World Research Centre has put forward healthcare systems will see their funding in- this collection of essays, which examines the creased. Nevertheless, it is unfortunate that current environment and arrives at actionable a crisis of this magnitude was required to fast conclusions. This special publication of the TRT track these inevitable changes. 8 The Covid-19 Pandemic: A Global Outlook Editor’s note Dr Tarek Cherkaoui The Covid-19 pandemic has taken the ing to understand the pandemic from a world by surprise, subjecting polities, global point of view. In the first chapter economies, healthcare systems, and so- titled ‘Brace for Impact: The Coronavirus cial structures to significant upheavals. Pandemic and the Brave New World to At the time of writing, four months after Come’, Dr Tarek Cherkaoui and Michael the outbreak started, the pandemic has Arnold examine the systemic causes already caused hundreds of thousands behind the spread of the virus, including of fatalities and infected millions of peo- the role of the World Health Organisation, ple around the globe. Moreover, tens of the impact of neoliberal approaches to millions are being laid off, while hundreds healthcare and the detrimental impact of millions have been confined to their of the politicisation of the pandemic. The homes. Subsequently, many experts authors go on to examine potential polit- started to assess the costs politically, ical and social developments in the wake economically, and health-wise. Some of the pandemic through a discussion on foreceasts have even gone so far as to the role of the state, the allure of authori- expect state failures, mass unemploy- tarianism and the risks of increased soci- ment, class warfare, civil wars and inter- etal surveillance. national conflicts. In the second chapter, titled ‘Covid-19 This book from the TRT World Research and the US Economy: Global Ramifica- Centre is an endeavour to search for tions’, Mustafa Metin Başbay discusses meaning through an examination of pos- the impact of the coronavirus pandemic sible implications of the pandemic from on the US economy thus far and provides a variety of angles and perspectives. On a trajectory about what to expect in terms the micro-level, specific case studies of economic damage in the short to me- are used in order to get a perspective of dium term. Başbay proceeds to examine various responses from the four corners the global ramifications of coronavirus of the world. The book is a collection of pandemic. Cautiously optimistic, the au- seven contributions from the centre’s thor expects that most of the economic senior fellows and researchers, offering a damage can be short-lived, and the glob- fascinating overview and diverse vantage al economy will probably bounce back points regarding the dynamics arising towards the end of 2020. However, the from the pandemic. country-level effect will depend on gov- ernments’ effectiveness in impeding the The book is divided into two parts.

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