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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted in Romania the Bucharest University of Economic Studies CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted in Romania The Bucharest University of Economic Studies CFA Research Challenge | 21 Feb 2015 S.N.G.N RomGaz S.A. | BVB symbol: SNG | LSE symbol: SNGR Price (BVB Close 18 Feb 2015): 34.01 Action: HOLD End-2015 target price: 38.5 Report currency: RON Analysts: Theodora Alexe, Carmen Dobrescu, Carmen Dima, Cosmin Popa Sector: Oil and Gas/Romania Radu Lupu (Faculty Advisor), Sorin Dumitrescu, CFA (Industry Mentor) Faculty of International Business and Economics, ASE Bucharest Key stock statistics (Thomson Reuters, BSE, LSE, company reports) 52 weeks Price Range (RON/sh) 32.1- 36.4 Market cap.(£m) 222.78 Debt/Equity 0 P/NAV 0.3% Average daily volume 255,252 Free Float 20% Gearing 0 DPS 2.57 Shares Outstanding (m) 385.4 Beta 0.85 EPS 0.88 Closing price BVB 34.01 Market cap.(RON) 13,069 NAV (RON) 9736.6 P/E ratio 7.73 Closing price LSE £8.5 Highlights Price performance chart Romgaz is the leading natural gas supplier in 37 3000 Romania, involved in exploration and 36 2500 production of natural gas, storage and 35 technological transport. The regulated market 2000 protects its competitive position, while 34 1500 strategic partnerships with international 33 1000 players sustain its stronghold in both local 32 and external operations. 31 500 As a state-owned company, Romgaz 30 0 performance depends on positive macroeconomic outlook and industry trends. 9-Jul-14 1-Oct-14 In the context of declining global and regional 2-Apr-14 8-Jan-14 7-Jan-15 5-Feb-14 5-Mar-14 4-Feb-15 6-Aug-14 3-Sep-14 23-Jul-14 16-Apr-14 30-Apr-14 15-Oct-14 29-Oct-14 22-Jan-14 11-Jun-14 25-Jun-14 21-Jan-15 19-Feb-14 19-Mar-14 11-Dec-13 25-Dec-13 20-Aug-14 17-Sep-14 12-Nov-14 26-Nov-14 10-Dec-14 24-Dec-14 28-May-14 gas reserves, Romania’s exposure to Russia 14-May-14 as its main gas supplier puts it at risk, though High-Low Volume (rhs) 10-day MA 30-day MA the risk for Romgaz is capped due to production and sales operations being 10% Returns focused extensively on the local market. In addition, the development of the Black Sea 0% area and AGRI interconnector are an -10% opportunity for Romgaz in the mid- and long- D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14 J-14 A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14 J-15 F-15 term. Source: Bucharest Stock Exchange Financials Valuation Investment Risk 2014 2015e Given limited risk exposure and good One major risk for the company is Profitability business development prospects, we represented by the limited exploitable Profit margin 36.7% 31.1% recommend HOLD on Romgaz, with a 12- reserves, which cause the gas production of Dividend yield 8.4% 8.5% 13% upside on the current stock price. Romgaz to decline with more than 1 % per Liquidity Countering production decline, developing year. The company’s profitability for the Working capital turnover 5.44 5.00 new resources and continuing to establish forthcoming years will also be influenced by a Solvency key partnerships in exploitation will affect the new taxation system that could include higher Total Debt to Total Assets 0.0% 0.0% prospects of the company further on. royalty rates. Free Cash Flow 1,448 928 Financials and valuation are indicative of a Key strengths relate to the intent of the Valuation HOLD recommendation. We established a company to mitigate financial risks through Price to Earnings 8.7 7.3 target price of RON 38.50, a 13% growth the introduction of a risk management The 2014 financial profitability ratios highlight from the current price of RON 34.00 and department, to the significant work interest in an impressive 42.11% y-o-y increase in expect low stock price volatility due to the the Black Sea offshore discoveries and to the earnings before interest and taxes. This high price liberalization calendar. Our valuation 25% interest in the Azerbaijan-Georgia- profit margin of 36.7% reflects the effect of approach relies on Discounted Cash-Flow Romania Interconnector regional project. the gas price liberalisation for non-household Model, Net Asset Value and Multiples model. With a high probability of materializing, consumers. The latter is computed on the stock market operational risks represent a serious concern The relatively high dividend yields of 8.5% in trading of peer companies. for the company. However, regulatory risks 2015e compared to Romgaz peers would The main share price triggers are the should not be overlooked by the risk offer potential investors a significant return reshuffle of the tax system, the gas demand department as they may have a significant for their investment. and the depressed oil prices which act as a impact on the profits of Romgaz. The capital structure of Romgaz is benchmark for import gas. underleveraged, with an atypical zero debt level. On the upside, Romgaz can attract 48 Financial more debt in the future with no risk of default. Risks 46 18% However, this implies lower returns on equity Operational which can hamper the competitive advantage 44 Risks of the company. 42 13.40% Regulatory Risks The actual free cash flows for 2014 are 40 significantly high at 1,448 million RON, Environmen Price 38 8.30% tal Risks enabling Romgaz to halt the production Potential decline and to pursue other opportunities that 36 Probability Corruption Risks enhance shareholders’ value. 34 General 32 Country 30 Risks DCF Peers NAV Valuation method Target Price Current price Upside Impact Source: team estimation Source: team assessment 1 | P a g e CFA Research Challenge | 21 Feb 2015 Business Description Natural gas exploration and production are the core business of the company Company info The focus of the company is on exploitation of current reserves and discovery of new sites. Address: Piata Constantin Motas, No. 4, Romgaz currently operates 3257 gas producing wells which access 147 commercial fields, as Medias, Sibiu; Romania, 551130 well as 29 exploration wells in nine on-shore exploration blocks. As of June 2013, the company Website: www.romgaz.ro held net proved reserves of 62.1 billion m3 of gas and additional net probable reserves of 13.2 FTSE Sector: Oil &Gas Producers billion m3. The use of modern specialized software and specific surface exploration methods for Shares listed on: identification of areas with accumulations of hydrocarbon led to a maximum reserves replacement Bucharest Stock Exchange(BVB) ratio of 298% in 2012. Going forward annual investments of approximately RON 600 million have since 12/11/2013, code: SNG been announced for projects aimed at discovering new gas reserves and enhancing production London Stock Exchange (LSE) output through improvement of equipment performance and redevelopment of mature fields. since 12/11/2013, code: SNGR Strategic partnerships sustain Romgaz’s stronghold in local and international operations ISIN number: ROSNGNACNOR3 Romania has the largest natural gas market in Central and Eastern Europe and was the first Share denomination: RON country to use natural gas for industrial purposes, allowing Romgaz to develop early expertise and transform it into a competitive advantage. To sustain its advance in know-how, Romgaz has established strategic partnerships covering 15 petroleum concessions in Romania. The company Shareholder structure has joint-ventures with Wintershall in the exploration and development of the RG 03 Transilvania South Block, with Falcon Oil & Gas in the exploitation of the Brodina and Cuejdiu Blocks, with Natural BNY persons, Amromco Energy in the rehabilitation of 11 gas fields and with Schlumberger for the rehabilitation Mellon 2.04% of Laslău Mare gas field. Moreover, as of 2008 Romgaz has been expanding internationally DRS, becoming co-titleholder of petroleum rights and obligations in 3 blocks from Slovakia(25 % 5.37% Legal persons, interest share) and 2 blocks from Poland(30% interest share) 12.58% Romanian state holds 70% A 15% stake in Romgaz was offered through the October 2013 IPO on both Bucharest Stock Exchange through shares listed and on London Stock Exchange through Global Depository Receipts (GDRs). The IPO made Romgaz the most valuable state-owned company in Romania Romanian and was therefore a success: the offer was oversubscribed nearly seven times, the share price of State, the sale – at RON 30/unit, was close to the maximum offer price of RON32/unit, and as a result Fondul 70.01% Romgaz raised EUR 390 million. As of September 30, 2014 the shareholder structure entitled a Proprietat ea S.A., majority stake of 70,01% to the Romanian State through the Ministry of Economy, 10% to Fondul 10.00% Proprietatea S.A. which works as a Romanian investment fund, 17,69% to various legal persons and 2,30% to natural persons. A long-term strategy to counter Romgaz’s main challenges Source: Romgaz The decline in natural gas production, the costs of discovering new resources and the difficulty of establishing key partnerships for exploitation are the main challenges that Romgaz plans to Projects Companies overcome. Finding new proven reserves is crucial to maintain investors’ confidence on the long term. Romgaz’s already proven reserves of natural gas will ensure internal production for the Participation agreement following 12 to 15 years. for exploration and OMV Petrom and exploitation of the Black ExxonMobil The company has planned to partner with strategic players, in accordance with its expansion Sea area strategy. As it targets development in the Black Sea, Romgaz signed a participation agreement with OMV Petrom and ExxonMobil whereby it will hold a 10% of the exploration and exploitation SC Sutech SRL Building a natural gas of the area.
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