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The Impact of Kenya's Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children on Human Capital the Kenya CT-OVC Evaluation Team

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The Impact of Kenya's Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children on Human Capital the Kenya CT-OVC Evaluation Team This article was downloaded by: [University of Sussex Library] On: 05 April 2013, At: 04:48 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK Journal of Development Effectiveness Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rjde20 The impact of Kenya's Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children on human capital The Kenya CT-OVC Evaluation Team To cite this article: The Kenya CT-OVC Evaluation Team (2012): The impact of Kenya's Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children on human capital, Journal of Development Effectiveness, 4:1, 38-49 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19439342.2011.653578 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Full terms and conditions of use: http://www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and- conditions This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. The publisher does not give any warranty express or implied or make any representation that the contents will be complete or accurate or up to date. The accuracy of any instructions, formulae, and drug doses should be independently verified with primary sources. The publisher shall not be liable for any loss, actions, claims, proceedings, demand, or costs or damages whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with or arising out of the use of this material. Journal of Development Effectiveness Vol. 4, No. 1, March 2012, 38–49 The impact of Kenya’s Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children on human capital The Kenya CT-OVC Evaluation Team∗1,2 Kenya’s Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children (CT-OVC) is a national child-protection programme that provides a flat monthly transfer of Ksh 1500 to ultra-poor families with orphans and vulnerable children aged 17 years and younger. A cluster randomised social experiment was conducted in 2007–2009 to evaluate the impact of this programme. We use these data to provide an in-depth analysis of the effects of the programme on children’s human capital development. Because basic schooling is free in Kenya and enrolment rates are relatively high, the scope of an unconditional programme such as the CT-OVC may be small. We use data from the evaluation baseline as well as national survey data to make ex-ante predictions about where the programme is most likely to have a big impact. We compare these predictions with actual programme impacts as a way of assessing whether the programme has had the expected impact on children’s human capital development given the institutional environment. We find that the programme has had an impact on the margins we would expect, and the size of the impact on secondary school enrolment of this unconditional programme is comparable with those from conditional programmes in other parts of the world. The ex-ante analysis is crucial to understanding where to look to appropriately assess the impact of the programme. Keywords: Social Cash Transfers; Kenya; children’s schooling; Africa Introduction The Kenya Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children (CT-OVC) is the Government of Kenya’s flagship social protection programme, currently reaching 130,000 households and over 260,000 orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) across the country. The objective of the programme is to provide regular cash transfer payments to families living with OVC to encourage fostering and retention of children and to pro- mote their human capital development. Eligible households, those who are ultra-poor and contain OVC, receive a flat monthly transfer of Ksh 1500 (approximately US$20; this Downloaded by [University of Sussex Library] at 04:48 05 April 2013 was recently raised in the 2011/12 Kenya budget). OVC are defined as household resi- dents between zero and 17 years old with at least one deceased parent, or a parent who is chronically ill, or whose main caregiver is chronically ill. Beneficiary households are informed that the care and protection of the resident OVC is their responsibility for receiv- ing the cash payment. Currently there are no punitive sanctions for non-compliance with this responsibility, although several districts will test punitive conditions in an upcoming expansion of the programme scheduled for 2012. *Email: [email protected] Disclaimer: The views expressed in the Work are those of the Author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. ISSN 1943-9342 print/ISSN 1943-9407 online © 2012 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19439342.2011.653578 http://www.tandfonline.com Journal of Development Effectiveness 39 The Government of Kenya, with technical and financial assistance from UNICEF, designed and began implementing the CT-OVC as a pilot in 2004. After a three-year demonstration period, the programme was formally approved by Cabinet, integrated into the national budget and began expanding rapidly in 2007. Prior to programme expansion in 2007, UNICEF designed a social experiment to track the impact of the programme on a range of household welfare indicators including child health and schooling. The evaluation was contracted to a private consulting firm, Oxford Policy Management, and entailed a randomised longitudinal design, with a baseline household survey (and related community survey) conducted in mid 2007 and a 24-month follow-up in 2009 (Ward et al. 2010). The ethical rationale for the design was that the programme could not expand to all eligible locations at the same time, so locations whose entry would occur later in the expansion cycle could be used as control sites to measure impact. Thus within each of seven districts across the country (Kisumu, Migori, Homa Bay, Suba, Nairobi, Garissa and Kwale), four locations were identified as eligible, and two were randomised out of the initial expansion phase and served as control locations. Targeting of households was carried out in all four locations (per district) according to standard programme operation guidelines. This article reports results on the impact of the programme on children’s human capital. It is only the second published study that provides experimental impacts of an African unconditional cash transfer programme on children’s schooling. The experimental evidence to date on the relationship between schooling and cash transfer programmes is pri- marily based on evidence from conditional cash transfer programmes from Latin America (Schultz 2004, Handa and Davis 2006, World Bank 2009). But cash transfer programmes in Africa tend to be unconditional rather than conditional. That fact, along with the distinct sub-Saharan context (higher poverty, lower supply of services, higher prevalence of HIV), means that the evidence from Latin America and other countries on the impact of condi- tional cash transfers is unlikely to be valid for sub-Saharan Africa countries. Meanwhile cash transfers are expanding rapidly in the region, with national programmes or small government-led demonstrations now in place in Ghana, Burkina Faso, Liberia, Nigeria, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Lesotho and Uganda (plus the universal programmes already in existence in Namibia, South Africa and Botswana). Given the significant public funds now being devoted to such programmes in Africa, it is important to begin to understand their behavioural impact to assess whether they represent an effective development policy instrument in the region. In terms of impact evaluation, as mentioned earlier only one published study exists that provides experimental evidence on the impact of a national cash transfer in Africa on children’s human capital. This study, based on the Mchinji (Malawi) Social Cash Transfer Downloaded by [University of Sussex Library] at 04:48 05 April 2013 Scheme, reports a 4 percentage point increase in school enrolment among intervention households relative to experimental controls (Miller et al. 2010) although the sample size is small (400 households in each study arm) and the difference significant at 10 per cent only. On the other hand, a quasi-experimental evaluation of South Africa’s Child Support Grant, based on difference-in-differences (DD) propensity score matching, reports a statistically significant impact of 7 percentage points on primary school enrolment (Samson et al. 2010). The present study adds to the literature on the impact of cash transfers on schooling in Africa in several important ways. First, it is the only the second experimental impact assess- ment of a cash transfer in this context, and with a school-age sample of nearly 5000 children has much greater power to detect significant effects than the Mchinji evaluation reported in Miller et al. (2010). Second, we explore a range of schooling outcomes for different age groups to understand the complete behavioural impact of the programme on children’s 40 The Kenya CT-OVC Evaluation Team human capital. Finally, and unlike other impact evaluations we are familiar with, we use the baseline data to provide ex-ante predictions about expected impacts, and then use these as benchmarks to assess the success of the programme on schooling outcomes. This is especially important in the Kenyan context because primary schooling is free so money may not be the main factor inhibiting demand among younger children. We argue that this approach should be used by all evaluations, when possible, as a way of judging the success of a programme. Targeting in the CT-OVC The programme employs a three-stage targeting process to select eligible households. In stage one, districts are chosen for inclusion into the programme based on overall poverty levels and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS (directly related to OVC).
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