Israel and Middle East News Update

Wednesday, August 11

Headlines: ● Records 6,275 New COVID-19 Cases ● Lapid to Visit Morocco to Cultivate Ties ● Minister: Israel Holds Direct Contacts With Saudis ● Israel Investigating May Barrage That Killed 6 in Gaza ● Hamas Expel UN Staff Following Exposure of a Tunnel ● Palestinian Official: CIA Director Visit Aims to Strengthen PA ● Iranian Media: Israeli Submarine Passed Through Suez ● Ethiopia PM Urges Civilians to Join Armed Forces

Commentary: ● Yedioth Ahronoth: “They’ve Learned Nothing’’ - By Ben-Dror Yemini

● Yedioth Ahronoth: “Facing Three Fronts’’ - By Amos Gilad & Michael Milstein

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts August 11, 2021 I24 News Israel Records 6,275 New COVID-19 Cases Israel registered 6,275 new daily COVID-19 infections, marking the highest number since the peak of the pandemic in February, according to Health Ministry data. The percentage of coronavirus tests that returned a positive result was 4.84 percent out of 130,669 people tested for the disease on Monday. Nearly 400 patients were listed in serious condition with 87 critical and 64 on respirators. Israel is currently home to approximately 35,000 active COVID-19 patients with 6,559 people having died of the virus, including 16 people dying on Sunday. The government is struggling to contain an outbreak of the highly contagious delta variant that started in late June. Despite introducing a third vaccine dose to older adults and approving tighter restrictions for the general public, the daily numbers continue to rise. Dig Deeper ‘‘Israel’s Tight Grip on Pandemic Slips’’ (Al-Monitor)

Ynet News Lapid to Visit Morocco to Cultivate Ties Foreign Minister Yair Lapid will fly to Morocco for a visit that will help cement ties between the two countries. The Israeli top diplomat will head of a delegation of lawmakers and officials who will meet with Moroccan officials and inaugurate the Israeli Liaison Office in the capital, Rabat, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. It’s the first visit to Morocco by an Israeli minister since 2003. Israel and Morocco had low-level diplomatic relations in the 1990s, but Morocco cut them off after the Second Intifada erupted in 2000. The two countries maintained informal ties, with thousands of Israelis traveling to Morocco each year. Many Israeli Jews have lineage that traces back to Morocco, which is still home to a small community of several thousand Jews. Dig Deeper ‘‘Bahrain Envoy: Abraham Accords Helped Keep Lid on Gaza War in May’’ (Times of Israel)

Times of Israel Minister: Israel Holds Direct Contacts With Saudis Israel is in direct contact with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states combating the influence of Iran in the region, Regional Cooperation Minister Issawi Frej said. “When it comes to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, there’s direct communication and understandings” regarding how to confront Iran, Frej said to Al-Hurra, an Arabic-language channel funded by the US government. Asked for further information about the nature of the contacts, Frej demurred, saying it was outside the scope of his office. The Regional Cooperation portfolio deals with Arab states with which Israel shares normalization accords, Frej said. Saudi Arabia has no official ties with Israel. But two of its close regional partners — Bahrain and the UAE — normalized relations with Israel last year. Former prime minister allegedly visited Saudi Arabia last November to hold covert discussions with Saudi crown prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MbS). The Saudi government denied the meeting publicly. Dig Deeper ‘‘Israeli, Egyptian Energy Ministers Discuss Natural Gas Trade Plans’’ (Jerusalem Post) 2 Associated Press Israel Investigating May Barrage That Killed 6 in Gaza After initially finding no grounds for disciplinary action, the Israeli military later opened an investigation into an artillery bombardment that killed six Palestinian civilians, including an infant, in the in May. To date, no soldiers or senior officers have been punished for the errant fire, which witnesses say came without warning. Human rights groups have long accused the Israeli military of having a poor record of investigating the conduct of its troops. The shelling during the latest war between Israel and Hamas militants in Gaza took place in the night of May 13. It came ahead of an Israeli bombardment targeting Hamas’s underground tunnel network. Ahead of the tunnel strikes, Israeli artillery bombarded the northern Gaza Strip and struck near a cluster of dilapidated homes belonging to a community outside the town of Beit Lahia. In a statement, the army said an “operational inquiry” was immediately conducted. It declined to provide details, but acknowledged the probe found no signs of criminal negligence. Dig Deeper ‘‘Despite Calm, Israeli Town Copes With Scars of Rocket Fire’’ (Associated Press)

I24 News Hamas Expel UN Staff Following Exposure of a Tunnel Hamas prevented a team of UN experts from operating in the area of a tunnel shaft under a UNRWA school and removed the team from the area, Kan reported. The tunnel in the Zeitoun neighborhood, part of Hamas’ military urban infrastructure. Bomb disposal staff from the United Nations Mine Action Service (UNMAS) arrived at the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) school several days ago. The specialists were requested to attend to ensure the safety of the educational building in preparation for the start of the new school year. As a result the UNMAS team cancelled plans to examine the viability of a second UNRWA school in Rafah, where another tunnel was suspected of being. UNRWA informed the Hamas administration that neither school would open with 4,000 students subsequently missing schooling. Dig Deeper ‘‘US Hails Egypt’s ‘Constructive’ Role in Gaza, Elsewhere Despite Rights Concerns’’ (Times of Israel)

Jerusalem Post Palestinian Official: CIA Director Visit Aims to Strengthen PA The Palestinian Authority (PA) welcomes the decision of the Biden administration to dispatch CIA director William Burns to Israel and the , according to a Palestinian official in Ramallah. “The visit shows that the Biden administration is serious about restoring Washington’s relations with the and strengthening the Palestinian leadership under President Mahmoud Abbas,” the official said. The official added that Burns was expected to meet with Abbas and Majed Faraj, head of the PA General Intelligence Service. Faraj and senior Palestinian official Hussein al-Sheikh, head of the General Authority of Civil Affairs, are seen by many Palestinians as the de facto rulers of the PA. An unconfirmed report in the Arab media outlet Arabi 21 claimed that the PA, Israel and the Biden administration recently reached a “secret agreement” that allows formation of an American-Israeli committee that would work on all corruption files in the PA in order to restore and improve its image among the Palestinians.

3 Times of Israel Iranian Media: Israeli Submarine Passed Through Suez Amid increased naval tensions between Israel and Iran, Iranian state media claimed that an Israeli dolphin-class submarine had entered the Red Sea via the Suez Canal, accompanied by two battleships. Nour News said that sources in Iran’s Supreme Council of National Security had confirmed the submarine’s passage into the Red Sea, but believed the move was “mostly just for show.” The sources were quoted as saying that Israel had “failed to create a consensus against Iran” following the recent attack on an Israeli-linked ship off the coast of Oman but “continues to try to create tension” in the region. Two crew members, a Briton and a Romanian, were killed in last month’s attack on the MT Mercer Street. The ship is operated by Zodiac Maritime, a London-based company belonging to Israeli tycoon Eyal Ofer. Iran has denied responsibility for the blast, but analysts have described the operation as part of a shadow war between Iran and Israel. In December last year, an Israeli submarine reportedly openly crossed the Canal in a show of force directed at Iran. The move was approved by Egypt, according to Kan. That submarine reportedly surfaced and faced the Persian Gulf, which lies on the other side of Saudi Arabia. The intelligence sources said the move was meant to “send a message” to Iran. Dig Deeper ‘‘Gantz, Herzog Threaten Israel Will Step up Responses if Iranian Attacks Continue’’ (Times of Israel)

I24 News Ethiopia PM Urges Civilians to Join Armed Forces Ethiopian Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy issued a call for all eligible civilians to join the armed forces as fighting raged in multiple regions of Africa's second most populous nation. Northern Ethiopia has been wracked by fighting since last November, when Abiy sent troops to topple the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), then the ruling party of the Tigray region. The move came in response to TPLF attacks on federal army camps, said Abiy, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, and has triggered a deepening humanitarian crisis in Tigray, where 400,000 people are facing famine-like conditions, according to the UN. Although Abiy promised a swift victory, the war took a stunning turn in June when Tigrayan forces recaptured the regional capital Mekele and the Ethiopian army largely withdrew. The TPLF has repeatedly said it does not have designs on holding territory and is instead focused on facilitating aid access and preventing pro-government forces from regrouping. Abiy's government, meanwhile, says a unilateral ceasefire it announced in late June was intended to allow aid deliveries, and that the TPLF's subsequent offensive undermined that effort. Dig Deeper ‘‘Ethiopia-Sudan Tension Rises Over Tigray Conflict’’ (Al-Monitor)

4 Yedioth Ahronoth – August 11, 2021 They’ve Learned Nothing By Ben-Dror Yemini ● “An anti-Jewish and an anti-national government has been formed in Israel,” asserts a public letter that was signed by dozens of . They do not call for violence. They are opposed to anarchy. But we’ve seen already how this plays out. Their language is violent, since if they describe the government as being “anti-Jewish,” then that is the clearest possible call on the public to take violent action. The rabbis’ letter is emphatically against several plans, such as “privatizing kashrut,” changing “conversion proceedings,” and “desecrating the Western Wall with Reform [Jews’] ‘prayers,’” and so on. All of these changes, which might and hopefully will take place, will in fact be important for all the people who are Jewish and patriotic. Nobody has undermined the Jewish identity of Israel more than these rabbis, who hail from the nationalist-Haredi school of thought. ● For years they have been distancing the public from Judaism. For years they have been forcing their views on the majority. For years they have been working hard to turn Israel into a benighted country. All the changes that the current government wishes to make, including in the sphere of conversion, kashrut and the Western Wall arrangement, enjoy broad support in Orthodox circles. Past polls indicate that a majority of Zionist Orthodox Israelis support these changes. They are not changes that will undermine Israel’s Jewish identity. They are changes that might save something from the rubble and destruction that the signatories wish to visit on us: Dov Lior, Zvi Yisrael Tau, Shlomo Aviner and Yigal Kaminsky. They’ve become used to being the bosses. The defamatory manifesto known as The King’s Torah was interpreted by many people as rabbinic a seal of approval for racism and killing non-Jews. ● Many rabbis took exception to that awful essay. But Dov Lior stood up and supported it. When having the police question him became necessary, thousands of people showed up to prevent that from happening. This has nothing to do with which government is in power. After all, way back then, a decade ago, Binyamin Netanyahu was prime minister. In fact, any Zionist, patriotic and Jewish government is unfit, as far as he is concerned. Woe to the Jewish people, to Judaism, if these are its religious teachers. The same is true for the Western Wall arrangement, which sets aside a small prayer area for the streams of Judaism that represent the majority of Jews in the world. This arrangement was drafted by Natan Sharansky when he was the Jewish Agency chairman. It was approved by Netanyahu’s government. It enjoyed the support of a majority of the national-religious Israeli Jews. But the Haredim were opposed. Now they are being joined by the nationalist-Haredim. We must tell them: Judaism belongs to all of us. You have no monopoly over it. Even worse, they have learned nothing. Incitement leads to actions, even if a call “against violence” is aired at the same time. The lies that define the government as “anti-Jewish” foster hatred and encourage people on the fringes of society to take action. We must hope that blood does not get spilled. But if, God forbid, it does—that blood will on the hands of the people who signed this venomous letter.

5 Yedioth Ahronoth – August 11, 2021 Facing Three Fronts By Amos Gilad & Michael Milstein ● Israel has had to cope in the last few months with three central areas of tension: the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Iran (mainly in the Persian Gulf). The tension on these three fronts developed separately, but nonetheless have a common denominator, namely the growing boldness of Israel’s enemies and a cautious attempt by them to reshape the rules of the game against Israel. The first expression of this was in Operation Guardian of the Walls, when Hamas for the first time initiated a large-scale military clash without there having been prior tension in the Gaza Strip but, rather, did so in response to events in Jerusalem. With Iran, there have been attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf, some of them Israeli- owned, the most major one the attack on the cargo ship in which two civilians (British and Romanian) were killed. ● The most recent expression of this was Hizbullah’s rocket fire at northern Israel after the IDF air strike (which was in retaliation for earlier rocket fire from southern Lebanon), for the first time since 2006. This string of incidents may attest to a change in the mindset of Israel’s enemies, who in the last few years had shown a lot of restraint for fear of being dragged into large-scale fighting. This is the result of regional and international changes, first and foremost so, a new administration in the US which many in the Middle East view as being less eager than its predecessor to use force in the region; Israel’s focus on the coronavirus crisis and its ongoing domestic muddle; the weakness and the trepidation felt by the Sunni Arab world, among other reasons, due to its belief that Washington is not providing it with stable support, as it did in the past. ● The boldness that Hamas, Hizbullah and Iran have shown does not mean that Israel’s power of deterrence is completely gone and does not indicate that they are eager for large-scale warfare. This is a matter of trial and error for them, with the purpose of seeing how far they can strike at Israel and respond to its actions without reaching the point of an all-out clash. This is part of the war-between-wars and it is different in each of the theaters of operations: in the Gaza Strip, this has been done by means of balloon terrorism; in the Persian Gulf, it has been done by means of attacking ships; and in Lebanon it has been done by means of sporadic rocket fire. It is still unclear whether that rocket fire was exceptional or it if will become a recurring pattern. ● These three organizations are carefully monitoring Israel’s responses and the regional and international responses. They appear to have received the impression that those responses are not as robust as they used to be in the past. While it is true that Hamas suffered a major military blow in Operation Guardian of the Walls, it also chalked up strategic achievements in that it strengthened its image domestically and agitated Arab society in Israel. Iran has not suffered any major damage as a result of its acts of aggression in the Persian Gulf (and the dialogue between it and international community on its nuclear program is still underway, and EU representatives attended the swearing- in ceremony for the new president).

6 ● The rocket fire from Lebanon was not met with any major Israeli attack or with fierce international criticism (although Hizbullah was severely criticized inside Lebanon). This aggregate of events obliges Israel to review its understanding of the logic animating its enemies and how it evaluates their actions. In this context, a gap has become evident in the last few months between the Israeli assessment—namely, that they are deterred and are doing their best to maintain the quiet with Israel, among other reasons, because of their domestic problems (civilian distress in the Gaza Strip; the collapse of the state of Lebanon; the Iranian attempt to improve its position vis-à-vis the international community), and a reality in which, in practice, they are acting with greater boldness that has surprised Israel, such as the Hamas’s initiative in attacking Israel or Hizbullah’s retaliation for the IDF’s air strikes in Lebanon. ● Israel’s basic assumption about them being deterred and wanting to avoid a large-scale confrontation is indeed correct, but it ignores their willingness to take military measures that they believe fall short of the threshold that would precipitate a major conflagration. This gap must be understood, instead of relying on easy solutions such as the explanation that the enemy has lost its good judgment and has become unpredictable, as was recently said about Yahya Sinwar. Israel must take note of the axis that connects all the theaters that, as noted, have different backgrounds but whose major players share a similar mindset and who talk to one another and share what they learn. Israel must realize that its enemies are still deterred from starting a large-scale war but are trying to see if they can rewrite the red lines. This dynamic is liable to steer Israel—but also its enemies—toward a general escalation of the situation, without this being planned and as opposed to all the parties’ fundamental interests.

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