Appendix 1 AREA PROFILE Land & Population Moray is the 8 th largest Council area in Scotland, covering an area of 2238 square kilometres, from the Cairngorm Mountains in the south to the coast of the Moray Firth in the north. However, in terms of its population, it ranks 25 th out of 32 with a population of just 86,870. The area is mostly rural comprising 70% open countryside and a further 25% woodland. The average population density is low at just 39 people per square kilometre. However, approximately 57% of the population live in the 5 main towns of Elgin, Forres, Buckie, Lossiemouth and Keith, where the population density is approximately 2500 people per square kilometre. Compared to the rest of Scotland, Moray has a much smaller proportion of its population living in urban areas – 24% compared to 70% for Scotland as a whole. Most of Moray residents live within a 60-minute drive of a settlement of at least 10,000 population, with less than 1% living in areas described as very remote. This contrasts with other parts of the Highlands & Island Enterprise area, where very remote small towns and very remote rural areas are home to a much higher proportion of residents. Mid-2007 population estimates suggest that 18% of the population of Moray is aged under 16yrs, 61% is of working age and 21% is of pensionable age. However, Moray is relatively short of young people in their late teens and early twenties, especially young women. Almost three quarters of those brought up in the area leave, often for work or education in the cities. Much of the population growth experienced in the region in the past twenty years has been fuelled by the in- migration of armed forces personnel and support staff, and more recently the significant increase in East European migrants to Moray. Deprivation Overall, Moray is one of the least deprived areas in Scotland, as defined by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), having no data zones in the 15% most deprived in Scotland and just 2 in the 20% most deprived areas, both of which are in Elgin. This represents just 1.7% of Moray’s data zones, the lowest in Scotland with the exception of the three island groups. However, the rural nature of Moray means that 27.6% of its data zones are within the 15% most access deprived in Scotland, due to the financial cost, time and inconvenience of travelling to basic services. There is some concern that the SIMD does not accurately measure the incidence of deprivation in rural areas, due to the lower concentration of the population. The ranking of an area within the 20% most deprived relies on there being a high proportion of the population in any one datazone experiencing deprivation of some kind. In rural areas, of which a large proportion of Moray is made up, the sparse distribution of residents can mean that pockets of deprivation are missed. Health The General Register Office from Scotland statistics show that, for the years 2005- 2007, the life expectancy at birth in Moray for males was 75.9 years, above the national average of 74.8 years, and for women was 80.2 years, above the national average of 79.7 years. Overall the life expectancy at birth in Moray at 78.0 years is above the national average of 77.4 years. 536895 1 General health in Moray is reported as being slightly better than nationally with nearly 93% of Moray’s population reporting good or fairly good health and just 7% reporting not good health. This compares with 90% & 10% respectively for Scotland. Around 1/6 of Moray’s population has a limiting long-term illness compared with 1/5 nationally. The number of deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD) in Moray has remained static since 2004/05 but has shown a decrease for the Grampian region during the same period. CHD and cancer continue to be two of the main causes of premature death for those under 75 in Moray. Economy & Employment The patterns of economic involvement in Moray are very different. Compared to Scottish norms more people work part-time and self-employment levels are higher in Moray. The area has fewer students due to young people moving away from the area to access Higher Education. In common with other rural authorities there are proportionally more retired people living in the region. There are fewer managerial and professional jobs (21%) compared with Scotland (26%) and many more people work in skilled trade and processing occupations. One third of all jobs are part-time. More than half of female workers work part-time (57%) compared with 47% of female workers who work part-time in Scotland. The structure of the economy and relative importance of primary sectors and others that offer low and semi-skilled employment also has an impact on average earnings Of those young people who leave Moray to enter higher education, there is a low return to the area to seek employment. Fewer graduates are employed compared to Scottish norms and business research and development is extremely low. In Moray there has been a small number of companies providing graduate employment. This has consisted of a total of 15 companies. Housing Between 2002 and 2007, the number of households in Moray increased by 6.3%, from 36,230 to 38,521. However, over the same period, the number of dwellings increased by 5.2%, from 39,123 to 41,172. Over 3% of dwellings are vacant, with a further 1.4% being second homes. Dwellings in council tax bands A to C represent 68% of total dwellings, while 26% are classified as bands D & E, the remaining 6% falling into bands F to H. 13% of dwellings are flats, 20% are terraced properties, 31% are semi-detached and the remaining 36% are detached, a surprising breakdown considering the council tax band breakdown. Environment Moray has a high quality environment, recognised by international, national and local designations. Much of the national environment of Moray is of national importance – the Cairngorms, the Spey and the Moray Firth’s rich marine ecosystem. There is an impressive diversity of often iconic species, such as capercaillie and wildcat and habitats such as threatened peatbog. There are protective designations for scenery, habitats and ecologically rich areas. Moray is also one of the most forested areas in Scotland (28% of land under forestry, Scotland’s total is 15%) The quality of Moray’s natural heritage has been recognised at the European level through the designation of the Cairngorm’s National Park, the Special Protection Areas, and Special Areas of Conservation. Moray contains 39 sites of Special 536895 2 Scientific Interest, which are sites of key nature conservation and wildlife importance. Moray also contains a number of Areas of Great Landscape Value and the Cairngorms National Scenic Area. The conservation, enhancement and promotion of Moray’s built heritage is therefore important. In particular, this will mean safeguarding listed buildings, ancient monuments, archaeology and designed landscapes and to retaining buildings, townscapes and artifacts, which are part of Moray’s character and identity. 1. HEALTH Figures for Moray using 5-year totals from 1983 to 2007, show an increasing trend for all persons and males, while the trend for female suicides is slightly decreasing. However, over the last 10 years, the number of suicides has decreased, both overall and of males. The number of female suicides has increased slightly over this period. The level of anti-depressant drugs prescribed continues to climb both nationally and locally. Since 2001/02 Grampian has seen an increase of 25% in the number of prescribed anti-depressants, this is compared to a national increase of 21%. The actual increase in the number of prescribed items in Grampian was 60,229, climbing from 236,928 in 2001/02 to 297,157 in 2006/07. 2. ALCOHOL The number of alcohol-related deaths has increased over recent years, with approximately 75% being male. Out of over 400 local authority areas in the UK, Moray was ranked 14 th for alcohol-related deaths in males between 1998 and 2004. Over the past three years in Moray, there has been a 10% reduction in the number of alcohol-related hospital discharges bringing the figure back to the level of five years ago. This compares with a 2% rise nationally. The ratio of hospital discharges (with an alcohol-related diagnosis) to patients is currently the same in Moray as nationally at 1.4. 3. ELDERLY/VULNERABLE Elderly - By 2011 the proportion of the population of Moray of pensionable age will increase from 20% to nearly 22%. Around 63% of the pensionable age group is female. By 2031 the projected percentage changes of the population who are pensionable age will increase to 39% and by 104% for over 75s. While Moray’s percentage change for pensionable age is higher than the Scottish projection (31%), Moray is also 1 of 18 local authorities who project a decrease in their working age population over this period. The combined effect of these demographic trends could mean that health and social care service providers will have difficulty in recruiting sufficient numbers of staff which will then place an additional burden on unpaid carers. There were approximately 3000 people with dementia in Moray in January 2007. By 2014 it is projected that there will be approximately 5500 people with dementia in Moray, an 83% increase. The estimated average cost per annum of a person with dementia is £25,472. Moray is focusing services on the more dependant elderly population through the provision of more intensive services to the same number of clients despite a rising older population.