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Inox Leisure | BUY 25 February 2021 India | Media | Company Update Inox Leisure | BUY Strong content lined-up; will we get a full house? An interesting development in Multiplex industry at present is that the much awaited Vicky Punjabi Bollywood content release calendar is now firming up with a great line-up (see Exhibit 1 for [email protected] | Tel: (91 22) 66303065 details) despite few regions seeing a spike in pandemic. A part of it is attributable to better Nikita Maheshwari consumer sentiment and positive impact from the vaccine rollouts that is currently underway [email protected] | Tel: (91 22) 66303077 but, in our view, this also signifies that content owners continue to believe that exhibition Richard Liu [email protected] | Tel: (91 22) 66303064 through cinemas remains the best way for monetisation of content. Our analysis indicates that, in case of a blockbuster movie, exhibition through cinemas can help content provider achieve a disproportionately high ROIC despite high cost of production (analysis of War movie implies 100% ROIC). With release of Bollywood content, we expect investor sentiment to turn positive for multiplexes especially given it could be one of the many beneficiaries of increased discretionary consumption. We reiterate Inox Leisure as our favoured pick given its Recommendation and Price Target attractive valuation (discounting c.75% of its current stores in operation), conservative stance Current Reco. BUY on growth financing and single-minded focus on screen expansion. Steady releases should Previous Reco. BUY Current Price Target (12M) 450 also ensure that cash burn from operations would have peaked at around INR 850mn in Dec- Upside/(Downside) 42.4% Q. Risks here, in the near term, relate to the extent of resurgence in the pandemic. Previous Price Target 450 Change 0.0% Bollywood movie release calendar getting firmed up; disproportionate returns on blockbuster movies through theatrical platform quite possible: With the lack of content Key Data – INOL IN releases over the past 12 months, we are seeing a bunching-up of movie releases over Current Market Price INR316 the next 6-12 months with quite a few of them having a strong star cast. This should help Market cap (bn) INR36.5/US$0.5 attract audiences in large numbers, in our view, and could be one of the best years for Free Float 38% the multiplexes unless we see a sharp resurgence in the pandemic. Compression of Shares in issue (mn) 112.5 theatrical windows and changes in profit sharing remains the near-term risk but, given Diluted share (mn) 112.5 the high monetisation potential through theatrical exhibition, we see these normalising to 3-mon avg daily val (mn) INR391.8/US$5.4 52-week range 512/158 levels seen pre-Covid. For this purpose, we have tried to work out economics of a Sensex/Nifty 50,890/14,982 blockbuster movie like ‘War’. Its world wide box office collections stood at INR4.8bn INR/US$ 72.7 implying production house share of INR 1.9bn which coupled with INR 1.5bn earnings through sale of digital and satellite rights (earnings here gets bumped up by strong Price Performance performance at the box-office) ensured that content providers realised INR 3.4bn. Given % 1M 6M 12M the total cost of production of INR 1.7bn, ROIC was a disproportionate 100% Absolute 2.1 6.7 -33.5 Relative* -2.0 -19.4 -46.2 establishing the importance of theatrical releases (refer exhibit 2 for details). * To the BSE Sensex Inox Leisure remains our preferred pick given lean cost structure and healthy balance sheet: A part of the sharp cost reduction achieved by Inox Leisure during lockdown should be sustainable and help improve the margin outlook for the company in a normalised environment, in our view. Even on operating cash burn, while it did increase from INR 340-380mn in Jun-Q and Sep-Q to INR 855mn in Dec-Q on resumption of rental payments, it remains well-below average SG&A of INR 2.4bn per quarter in FY20. With movie releases now firming up, we expect the cash burn to be near peak levels and with INR 2.3bn in liquidity as on Jan’21 (can suffice atleast for six months), Inox is well- positioned to capture the benefits from content releases. Inox Leisure’s prudent capital allocation, conservative funding of growth and reasonable valuation (discounting c.75% of the screens in operation at CMP) makes it one of our preferred picks in the discretionary space. Financial Summary (INR mn) Y/E March FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Sales 16,796 18,871 675 15,754 24,054 Sales growth (%) 26.1 12.4 -96.4 2,232.9 52.7 JM Financial Research is also available on: EBITDA 3,092 5,968 -2,000 4,536 7,618 Bloomberg - JMFR <GO>, EBITDA (%) 18.4 31.6 -296.2 28.8 31.7 Thomson Publisher & Reuters, Adjusted net profit 1,328 833 -3,596 -576 1,407 EPS (INR) 12.9 8.1 -32.0 -5.1 12.5 S&P Capital IQ, FactSet and Visible Alpha EPS growth (%) 75.4 -37.3 -494.1 -84.0 -344.3 ROIC (%) 14.4 1.7 -10.4 3.2 8.3 Please see Appendix I at the end of this ROE (%) 16.3 10.5 -63.4 -11.9 26.8 report for Important Disclosures and PE (x) 24.4 38.9 -9.9 -61.7 25.3 Price/Book Value (x) 3.4 5.2 6.9 7.8 6.0 Disclaimers and Research Analyst EV/EBITDA (x) 10.8 5.6 -18.7 8.4 4.7 Certification. Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Company data, JM Financial. Note: Valuations as of 25/Feb/2021 JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Inox Leisure 25 February 2021 Exhibit 1. Strong pipeline of Bollywood movies lined-up over next six months Release Date Movie Name Star cast 11-Mar-21 Roohi Rajkummar Rao, Janhvi Kapoor, Varun Sharma 12-Mar-21 Fauji Calling Sharman Joshi 19-Mar-21 Mumbai Saga John Abraham 19-Mar-21 Sandeep Aur Pinky Faraar Arjun Kapoor and Parineeti Chopra 02-Apr-21 Sooryavanshi Akshay Kumar, Katrina Kaif, Anupam Kher 23-Apr-21 Bunty aur Babli 2 Rani Mukherji, Saif Ali Khan, Siddhant Chaturvedi, 30-Apr-21 Chehre Emraan Hashmi and Amitabh Bachchan 13-May-21 Satyameva Jayate 2 John Abraham, Divya Khosla Kumar 13-May-21 Radhe Salman Khan, Disha Patani 04-Jun-21 83 Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone 18-Jun-21 Jhund Amitabh Bachchan 25-Jun-21 Shamshera Ranbir Kapoor, Vaani Kapoor, Sanjay Dutt 02-Jul-21 Shershaah Siddharth Malhotra 09-Jul-21 Chandigarh Kare Aashiqui Ayushmann Khurana and Vaani Kapoor 30-Jul-21 Gangubai Kathiawadi Alia Bhatt 06-Aug-21 Atrangi re Dhanush, Sara Ali Khan, Akshay Kumar 13-Aug-21 Attack John Abraham, Jacqueline Fernandez, Rakul Preet 27-Aug-21 Jayeshbhai Jordaar Ranveer Singh, Shalini Pandey 10-Sep-21 Bhoot Police Saif Ali Khan, Arjun Kapoor, Jacqueline Fernandez, Yami Gautam 17-Sep-21 Anek Ayushmann Khurana Source: Company, Media articles, JM Financial. Note: Strong star cast movies that could receive healthy openings are marked in bold. Exhibit 2. War movie earned ROIC of 100% which reflects that blockbuster movies can drive disproportionate earnings through theatrical release Particulars INR mn Cost of Production 1,700 Worldwide Box office Collections 4,755 Share of Production house 40.0% Earnings from box office 1,902 Satellite and Digital Rights Sale 1,500 Total Earnings for Production House 3,402 Net Earnings for Production House 1,702 ROIC 100.1% Source: Company, Media articles, JM Financial JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 2 Inox Leisure 25 February 2021 Exhibit 3. Cash burn for Inox was stable in Jun-Q / Sep-Q while spiked Exhibit 4. Inox’s stable debt levels over Fy09-20 despite acquisitions up in Dec-Q on partial resumption of rental costs and capex is a testimony to its prudent capital allocation policies Cash burn - INR mn Inox capital allocation - INR bn 0 25.0 13.8 2.6 13.1 20.0 -300 15.0 -338 -379 10.0 2.7 -600 5.2 1.6 5.0 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 -900 -855 Net debt - Acquisitions Capex Interest paid CFO Sale of Preferential Others Net debt - 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 FY09 treasury issue FY20 shares Source: Company, JM Financial Source: Company, JM Financial Exhibit 5. Operational fixed cost steadily increasing with resumption of operations but still remain well below pre covid levels; some sustainable cost-savings here could drive improved profitability in future Source: Company, JM Financial JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 3 Inox Leisure 25 February 2021 Exhibit 6. At current market price, the company is discounting mere 75% of its screens in operation Inox Per Screen Economics INR Mn Capex cost per screen 27.5 No. of seats per screen 230 Occupancy 28% No. of shows per day 4.8 No. of days 365 No. of admits per annum 112,829 Average ticket realisation - INR 167 Exhibition revenue 19 F&B spends per head (net) 75 F&B Revenue 8 Online Ticket booking - % 55.0% Fees per ticket 19 Convenience Fees 1.2 Advertisement spends per screen - FY19 3.3 Total Income per screen 32 Gross margin in Exhibition 55.1% Gross Margin in F&B 74.6% Gross Profit 21 GPM - % 66.6% Employees per screen 16 Average Employee Cost - INR 143,562 Employee cost per screen 2.3 Rentals per screen 5.9 CAMS per screen Electricity & Water charges per screen 1.9 Repairs & Maintenance 0.7 Movie distribution & Print Other expenses 4.6 EBITDA 5.8 EBITDA margin 18.1% Depreciation 2.8 EBIT 3.0 Tax - 25% 0.8 NOPAT 2.3 FCFF 5.0 Enterprise Value 106 EV net of capex 79 No.
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