Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC)
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Jollibee Foods Corporation FRI 11 MAY 2018 1Q18 results were robust, as expected Earnings up by 17.3% y/y, in line with estimates. JFC’s earnings for the first quarter of the year surged by 17.3% y/y, in line with estimates as it accounted for 24.2% and 23.1% of COL and HOLD consensus full-year forecasts, respectively. Operating profits grew at a slower pace of 7.7% y/y to Php2.0 Bil but was still in line with expectations at 26.3% of our full-year forecast. Note that TICKER: JFC we expect operating profits to grow at a slower pace for the rest of the year since Smashburger FAIR VALUE: 280.00 (which is operating at a loss) will already be consolidated in JFC’s books starting 2Q18. According CURRENT PRICE: 283.00 to JFC, the consolidation of Super Foods Group (Highlands Coffee) in 1Q18 resulted in a much UPSIDE: -1.06 higher operating expense. SHARE PRICE MOVEMENT Revenues for the period remained robust since it grew by 18.8% y/y to Php34.8 Bil. This was likewise in line with both COL (22.3% of full-year estimate) and consensus (22.6% of full-year 110 estimate) forecasts. Growth in revenues was driven by the healthy 7.6% same-store sales growth, a 10.0% incremental growth from store expansions, and a 1.7% impact from foreign currency 100 exchange rates. 90 Maintain HOLD rating. We are maintaining our HOLD rating for JFC with a fair value estimate of Php280.0/sh. At its current price of Php283.0/sh, JFC is trading at 41.1X 2018E P/E, significantly 80 above the average valuation of its local and global peers. The stock is also trading at a premium to 70 our fair value estimate. Nevertheless, we continue to like JFC fundamentally given its dominant 11-Feb-18 11-Mar-18 11-Apr-18 11-May-18 position in the domestic quick service restaurant industry as well as the improving profitability JFC PSEi of its international business. We believe that pullbacks are opportunities to buy the stock. ABSOLUTE PERFORMANCE 1M 3M YTD JFC -1.38 -2.19 12.89 FORECAST SUMMARY PSEi -2.46 -8.88 -9.47 Year to December 31 (Php Mil) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Revenues 90,671 100,780 113,987 131,573 156,195 183,827 % change y/y 12.9 11.1 13.1 15.4 18.7 17.7 Gross Prot 16,943 17,888 21,221 23,924 28,115 33,273 MARKET DATA %change y/y 13.0 5.6 18.6 12.7 17.5 18.3 Market Cap 310,339.00Mil Gross Prot Margin (%) 18.7 17.7 18.6 18.2 18.0 18.1 Operating Income 6,137 5,355 6,449 7,075 7,497 9,559 Outstanding Shares 1,086.62Mil %change y/y 3.5 -12.7 20.4 9.7 6.0 27.5 52 Wk Range 198.10 - 305.40 Operating Margin (%) 6.8 5.3 5.7 5.4 4.8 5.2 3Mo Ave Daily T/O 232.51Mil Net Income 5,362 4,929 6,140 7,089 7,445 9,092 %change y/y 14.8 -8.1 24.6 15.5 5.0 22.1 Net Margin (%) 5.9 4.9 5.4 5.4 4.8 4.9 EPS (in Php) 4.96 4.53 5.61 6.48 6.89 8.41 %change y/y 13.6 -8.6 23.9 15.4 6.3 22.1 RELATIVE VALUE P/E(X) 57.1 62.5 50.4 43.7 41.1 33.6 ANDY DELA CRUZ P/BV(X) 11.3 10.1 9.2 7.7 6.8 6.0 ROE(%) 21.6 17.0 19.1 19.3 17.6 18.9 SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 [email protected] *Source: JFC, COL estimates Disclaimer: All content provided in COL Reports are meant to be read in the COL Financial website. Accuracy and completeness of content cannot be guaranteed if reports are viewed outside of the COL Financial website as these may be subject to tampering or unauthorized alterations. EARNINGS ANALYSIS I JFC: 1Q18 RESULTS WERE ROBUST, AS EXPECTED FRI 11 MAY 2018 1Q18 revenues up 18.8% y/y to Php34.8 Bil Revenues of JFC continued to be strong in the first quarter of 2018 as it rose by 18.8% y/y to Php34.8 Bil. This was driven by the healthy 7.6% same-store sales growth, a 10.0% incremental growth from store expansions, and a 1.7% impact from foreign currency exchange rates. For the quarter, its Philippine restaurant systemwide sales grew by a robust 16.5% y/y to Php36.0 Bil (SSSG around 8%). Meanwhile, its international restaurant systemwide sales grew by 16.7% y/y to Php8.9 Bil (+30.8% growth with SuperFoods). JFC’s international business continued to grow rapidly, thanks to the strong performance of EMEAA (Europe, Middle East, and Asia ex- SuperFoods Group, +22.6% y/y), China (+17.9% y/y), and North America (+8.5% y/y). Exhibit 1: Results Summary % of full year forecast in PhpMil 1Q17 1Q18 % Change COL Consensus Revenues 29,289 34,800 18.8 22.3 22.6 Gross Prot 5,227 6,147 17.6 21.9 22.0 Gross Margin (%) 17.8 17.7 - - - Operating Income 1,829 1,969 7.7 26.3 24.5 Operating Margin (%) 6.2 5.7 - - - Net Income 1,533 1,799 17.3 24.2 23.1 Net Margin (%) 5.2 5.2 - - - source: JFC Operating income up by 7.7% y/y to Php2.0 Bil As discussed earlier, JFC’s operating income in 1Q18 grew at a slower pace of 7.7% y/y to Php2.0 Bil. Nevertheless, the slower growth is in line with COL estimates. As discussed earlier, we already expected JFC’s EBIT growth to slow down starting 2Q18 due to the consolidation of Smashburger which was already 85% owned by JFC starting March 8, 2018. More importantly, domestic EBIT growth remained robust at 18% y/y. JFC attributed its lower EBIT growth in part to rising raw material costs which slightly pulled down gross profit margin. What was largely responsible for the drop in EBIT growth was the consolidation of Super Foods Group (Highlands Coffee) in 1Q18. Since Highlands Coffee in Vietnam is still on a rapid expansion phase, operating expenses are most likely elevated. To acquire master franchise of Tim Ho Wan in Asia Pacific JFC recently disclosed that it is investing SG$45 Mil (around Php1.75 Bil) in Titan Dining Partners LP, a private equity that will acquire the master franchise of Tim Ho Wan in the Asia Pacific COL Financial Group, Inc. 2 EARNINGS ANALYSIS I JFC: 1Q18 RESULTS WERE ROBUST, AS EXPECTED FRI 11 MAY 2018 region excluding Hong Kong. JFC will sit in the Investment Committee of Titan. This provides JFC the opportunity to acquire a substantial ownership in Tim Ho Wan’s master franchise in the Asia Pacific region when the term of the fund ends in 7 years, through a purchase mechanism that is provided for in the agreement with Titan Dining LP. To prepare for this eventuality, JFC will operate as a franchisee of Tim Ho Wan in Shanghai, People’s Republic of China. Maintain HOLD rating We are maintaining our HOLD rating for JFC with a fair value estimate of Php280.0/sh. At its current price of Php283.0/sh, JFC is trading at 41.1X 2018E P/E, significantly above the average valuation of its local and global peers. The stock is also trading at a premium to our fair value estimate. Nevertheless, we continue to like JFC fundamentally given its dominant position in the domestic quick service restaurant industry as well as the improving profitability of its international business. We believe that pullbacks are opportunities to buy the stock. COL Financial Group, Inc. 3 EARNINGS ANALYSIS I JFC: 1Q18 RESULTS WERE ROBUST, AS EXPECTED FRI 11 MAY 2018 Jollibee Foods INCOME STATEMENT (IN PHPMIL) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Corporation (JFC) Revenues 9 0,671 1 00,780 1 13,987 1 31,573 1 56,195 1 83,827 % Growth - 11.1% 13.1% 15.4% 18.7% 17.7% COMPANY BACKGROUND Gross Prot 1 6,943 1 7,888 2 1,221 2 3,924 2 8,115 3 3,273 Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC) is % Growth - 5.6% 18.6% 12.7% 17.5% 18.3% EBITDA 9 ,323 8 ,781 1 0,434 1 1,799 1 1,520 1 5,168 the largest and leading quick service % Growth - -5.8% 18.8% 13.1% -2.4% 31.7% restaurant in the Philippines. It has Operating Prot 6 ,137 5 ,355 6 ,449 7 ,075 7 ,497 9 ,559 around 2,645 stores in the Philippines % Growth - -12.7% 20.4% 9.7% 6.0% 27.5% and 611 stores abroad as of end-2016. Key Interest expense ( 152) ( 226) ( 262) ( 405) ( 516) ( 614) Other Income/Expense 7 75 1 ,305 1 ,502 1 ,729 1 ,911 2 ,223 brands of JFC include Jollibee, Chowking, Pretax Income 6 ,759 6 ,435 7 ,689 8 ,399 8 ,892 1 1,167 Mang Inasal, Greenwich, and Burger King, Tax Expense 1 ,271 1 ,389 1 ,626 1 ,685 1 ,878 2 ,345 among others.