OBESITY AND NATURE’S THUMBPRINT How Modern Waistlines Can Inform Economic Theory August 23, 2002 Trenton G. Smith University of California, Santa Barbara Department of Economics e-mail:
[email protected] http://www.econ.ucsb.edu/~tsmith OBESITY AND NATURE’S THUMBPRINT How Modern Waistlines Can Inform Economic Theory* Abstract The modern prevalence and negative consequences of obesity suggest that many people have a tendency to eat more than is optimal. This paper examines the biological underpinnings of mammalian feeding behavior in an attempt to reconcile the “self-control problem” with the normative tradition of neoclassical economics. Medical, genetic, and molecular evidence suggest that overeating is a manifestation of the fundamental mismatch between ancient environments—in which preferences for eating evolved—and modern environments. The phenomenon can be described with a simple optimal foraging model in which both the utility function and the Bayesian prior are generated endogenously in the distant past. The implied disparity between subjective probabilities and actual probabilities has potentially broad implications for welfare economics. JEL Classification System codes: B41, D11, D60, D81, D91 * Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the 16th Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Lausanne, Switzerland, September 1, 2001; at the Economic Science Association North American Regional Conference, Tucson, Arizona, November 3, 2001; and at departmental seminars at the University of California, Santa Barbara; the University of California, Irvine; and California State University, Long Beach. Thanks are due to participants in these seminars and to Ted Bergstrom, Jack Hirshleifer, Bob Deacon, Charlie Stuart, Kelly Bedard, Antonio Bento, Karl Englert, Anita Gantner, Ted Frech, Darwin Hall, Bob Schillberg, Dottie Smith, and Chris Stoddard for helpful comments.