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Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences 2016 Annual Report COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES University of Colorado Boulder 216 UCB Boulder, CO 80309-0216 303-492-1143 [email protected] http://cires.colorado.edu CIRES Director Waleed Abdalati Annual Report Staff Katy Human, Director of Communications, Editor Laura Krantz, Editor Robin L. Strelow, Designer Agreement No. NA12OAR4320137 Cover: “Early Season Snow” The first snow of the year in the White River National Forest above Vail. Photo: Gijs de Boer/CIRES Table of Contents Executive Summary & Research Highlights 2 Project Reports 58 From the Director 2 Air Quality in a Changing Climate 59 CIRES: Science in Service to Society 3 Climate Forcing, Feedbacks, and Analysis 62 This is CIRES 6 Earth System Dynamics, Variability, and Change 68 Organization 7 Management and Exploitation of Geophysical Data 73 Governance 8 Regional Sciences and Applications 84 Finance 9 Scientific Outreach and Education 88 Space Weather Understanding and Prediction 90 People & Programs 10 Stratospheric Processes and Trends 94 Fellows 11 Systems and Prediction Models Development 98 CIRES Centers 26 Center for Limnology 26 Appendices 107 Center for Science and Technology Policy Research 28 Publications 107 Earth Science and Observation Center 30 Active NOAA Awards 133 National Snow and Ice Data Center 32 Personnel Demographics 134 Institutional Programs & Teams 34 Project Goals for 2016–2017 135 Western Water Assessment 34 CIRES Education and Outreach 36 Visiting Fellows 38 Innovative Research Program 43 Graduate Student Research Awards 44 Integrated Instrument Design Facility 45 Communications 46 Diversity & Undergraduate Research 48 Selected 2015 Awards 51 Events 54 2016 Annual Report 1 Executive Summary & Research Highlights From the Director Fiscal year 2016 marks my third year as Director of CIRES. As I look back at this past From deep within the Earth to the top had won a Presidential Early year, and look forward to those ahead, I continue to feel an enormous sense of privilege Career Award in Science and to be Director of an institute with such a talented workforce engaged in such important of the atmosphere and beyond, CIRES Engineering. De Boer’s in- and high-impact activities. At CIRES, we not only conduct and support research that is of continues to explore and understand novative and bridge-building the highest quality, we also carry out research and related activities that are of tremendous the world in which we live. work on Arctic atmospheric societal value through our partnership with NOAA, as well as our contributions to the processes and their impact on University mission. climate is partly funded by the In FY 2016, our expenditures were nearly $85 million, which comprised nearly a fifth U.S. Department of Energy. Clearly our work with NOAA is having far reaching impacts of the University’s research funding. Approximately half of our funding was from our in Colorado, the nation, and the world. cooperative agreement with NOAA—our core support base—and we One additional indication of the strength of the CIRES-NOAA relationship is the fact continued to leverage this investment and the support from the that our scientists continue to occupy leadership roles in the Divisions and Centers at university to secure nearly $37 million in additional funding NOAA, and our scientists are viewed favorably as strong candidates when civil servant from a diverse array of other sources. Among these were positions become available at NOAA. During the 2016 federal fiscal year so far, NOAA NASA and the National Science Foundation. With support Boulder groups reported nine new hires, seven of whom were CIRES employees. All of from these and other sources, CIRES scientists published this indicates the partnership is working well. On main campus, we welcome the arrival of more than 700 publications across the full spectrum of our newest faculty member, Michael Willis, who strengthens our capabilities and expertise environmental disciplines in many of the world’s most in remote sensing and geodesy. All are leaders among their peers and will no doubt make prestigious journals. Four of CU Boulder’s seven “highly significant contributions to CIRES and its mission. cited researchers” (top 1% of citations in their fields) are From deep within the Earth to the top of the atmosphere and beyond, CIRES continues CIRES scientists. We have played a critical role in the to explore and understand the world in which we live, often turning those discoveries into University’s educational mission through our 20 faculty and useful and actionable information. We advance science, and we improve lives. I am very our 210 graduate and undergraduate students in a wide range proud of the work we do at CIRES, and as you read through this report, I am confident of departments across campus. you will agree. Just as we are proud of our achievements in research and ed- ucation, we are also proud to be valued partners in the execution of NOAA’s mission. With 380 scientists and science support personnel located at the David Skaggs Research Center, and dozens more on campus conducting NOAA-related re- search, we are an integral part of the important work being done at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory, the National Weather Service’s Space Weather Prediction Center and Weather Forecast Office, and the National Centers for Environmental Information. Waleed Abdalati The success of these partnerships is evident in the numerous publications co-authored by CIRES Director CIRES and NOAA personnel, as well as various awards from NOAA and the U.S. Depart- ment of Commerce recognizing the outstanding achievements realized by NOAA/CIRES teams. CIRES researchers were key members of teams that won Department of Commerce Gold and Bronze medals and the NOAA Technology Transfer Award last year. In addition, two groups of CIRES and NOAA scientists won the COLABS/Governor’s High Impact Award. We are also delighted to report that in February, the White House informed Gijs de Boer, a CIRES researcher who works in NOAA’s Physical Sciences Division, that he 2 2016 Annual Report Photo: Glenn Asakawa/CU Boulder CIRES: Science in Service to Society The Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental improve fundamental understanding of the changing world reports of the Protocol’s three assessment panels: scientific, Sciences (CIRES) is an international leader in research, and to produce applications that are useful and used by technology and economic, and environmental effects. addressing some of the most pressing challenges facing decision-makers. Here we highlight a few of the past year’s • Used research aircraft and an instrumented van to measure the planet. Many of these challenges are priorities for activities and successes as they align with NOAA’s priorities: methane, ammonia, nitrous oxide, and other chemicals NOAA, such as adapting to and mitigating climate change the overarching goals and enterprise objectives outlined in released from animal feedlots and dairies. and conducting research that aids decision makers from NOAA’s Next Generation Strategic Plan. • Conducted aerosol measurements in the Brazilian state of the local to the international level. Since its inception as Amazonia to study the evolution of pollution aerosol from NOAA’s first cooperative institute––now, almost 50 years Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Goal Manaus in the Amazon rainforest and its impact on cloud ago––CIRES has been helping NOAA meet these and other CIRES scientists (often with NOAA and other colleagues): formation. strategic goals by hiring and supporting some of the best • Developed an inventory for vehicle (gasoline- and die- • Updated the NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index to and brightest Earth scientists and students, and leverag- sel-powered) emissions that relies on intensive roadside include 2015 GHG measurements and infer the direct ing NOAA investments with partnerships and funding monitoring programs and tunnel studies to derive emission impact of different gases on global radiative forcing. from other institutions around the world. Our researchers factors. • Presented a large-scale assessment of the observed occur- use time-honored and cutting-edge approaches to study • Completed the Synthesis Report of the United Nations rences of extreme daily rainfall (such as the flash-floods diverse aspects of Earth system science, with a focus on Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone in Texas in May 2015) over the entire contiguous United “use-inspired” research. That is, CIRES science seeks to Layer, which synthesizes the major findings from the 2014 States during 2015. Flares burn at sunset in the Bakken oil and gas fields near New Town, North Dakota. Photo: Jeff Peischl/CIRES 2016 Annual Report 3 • Investigated the impact of El Niño on surface pH and to better document ozone transport mechanisms with code. This HWRF configuration underwent realtime dissolved oxygen in California Current System. important implications for ground-level air quality, such as testing during the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, and is a stratospheric intrusions and long-range transport of ozone candidate for 2017 operational implementation. Weather-Ready Nation Goal from Asia. CIRES scientists (often with NOAA and other col- • Brought together the Forecast Impact and Quality As- Engagement Enterprise leagues): sessment Section (FIQAS) with National Weather Service CIRES scientists (often with NOAA and other
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