Singapore Financials 26 February 2016 CapitaLand (CAPL SP) CapitaLand Target price: SGD3.930 Share price (25 Feb): SGD2.880 | Up/downside: +36.5% Initiation: recurring income to back land replenishment Shane Goh (65) 6499 6546 China: earnings upside with malls/integrated development openings
[email protected] Singapore: rental and offices provide recurring income David Lum, CFA (65) 6329 2102 Initiate with a Buy rating and 12-month SOTP-based TP of SGD3.93
[email protected] Investment case: In our view, CapitaLand’s investment properties (malls, Share price performance offices, serviced residences) offer a resilient income source amid economic (SGD) (%) uncertainty and a depressed residential property market in Singapore. We 3.8 115 are positive on its forthcoming malls and integrated developments in China, 3.5 109 slated to open in 2016-18, coupled with positive rental reversions at 3.2 103 2.9 96 existing malls. We forecast a core China-led EBIT CAGR of 9% for 2015- 2.6 90 18, with the share of recurring income from investment properties seen Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 rising to 79% for 2018, from 64% in 2015. Capitaland (LHS) Relative to FSSTI (RHS) With most of CapitaLand’s China residential projects scheduled to be 12-month range 2.680-3.790 completed by 2019E, we expect it to replenish its landbank in 2016-17 to Market cap (USDbn) 8.74 ensure continuation of completed projects. China’s economic slowdown and 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 30.09 Shares outstanding (m) 4,261 market volatility could create investment opportunities for strong players like Major shareholder Temasek Holdings (39.6%) CapitaLand.