2012 State Election Preview
The November 6, 2012 election is expected to bring unprecedented change to the makeup of the state legislatures. Not only will over 81 percent of the nation’s state legislative seats be up for grabs, but the once-in-a-decade convergence of term limits and redistricting changes is likely to produce unusually high levels of turnover. The election also comes on the heels of the 2010 midterm elections, which resulted in a turnover of almost 24 percent of lawmakers, and having two high-turnover cycles back to back makes it possible that the number of seats changing hands in 2012 will break records.1
These changes also make it likely that at the start of the 2013 legislative sessions, approximately half of all state legislators will have served for two years or less.2
The state-level elections could also feel a strong impact from the closely-contested race for the White House. Polling currently gives Democratic President Barack Obama a +1.2 advantage over his opponent, Republican Governor Mitt Romney, but by all accounts the race remains too close to predict.3
The Impact of Term Limits
Term limit restrictions will affect the 14 states that have adopted term limits and that hold legislative elections during even numbered years: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma and South Dakota. Louisiana also has term limits but does not have a general election for their legislature in 2012.
Altogether, 248 current state legislators will have to leave office after the November elections because of term limits. Depending on the number of incumbents that lose, the Florida Legislature could be one- quarter new, the Colorado Legislature could be at least one-third new and the California Assembly could be 40 or even 50 percent new.4
1 Governing, State Legislatures May Experience a Mass Exodus at: http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/state- legislatures-experience-mass-exodus.html (May 25, 2012); Ballotpedia, 2012 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index at: http://ballotpedia.com/wiki/index.php/2012_state_legislative_elections_analyzed_using_a_Competitiveness_Index (accessed June 21, 2012). 2 National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), A Majority of State Legislators May Have Two Years or Less of Experience in 2013 at: http://ncsl.typepad.com/the_thicket/2012/05/a-majority-of-state-legislators-may-have-two-years-or-less-of- experience-in-2013.html (May 25, 2012). 3 Real Clear Politics, General Election: Romney vs. Obama at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html (accessed July 23, 2012). 4 Governing, id., supra note 1; National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), The Term Limited States at: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/legisdata/chart-of-term-limits-states.aspx (accessed June 22, 2012); Ballotpedia, The Impact of Redistricting
Elections immediately following the decennial redistricting process historically have higher numbers of open seats and bring in more new legislators than in typical election years. In the 2010 cycle Republicans had a huge advantage, exclusively controlling redistricting in 202 districts, while Democrats held authority in 47, bipartisan or citizen commissions drew 92, control was divided in 87 and seven districts were in at-large states that did not require redistricting.
For the most part, Republican-controlled legislatures focused their redistricting efforts on shoring up vulnerable incumbents and cementing their control over important seats instead of trying to expand their majorities. The effect of this kind of nuanced change is hard to see on paper – the New York Senate is the only legislative chamber in the country that will be adding a seat due to redistricting – bringing the total number of seats in all state legislatures to 7,383 – and, factoring in all of the finalized new maps, Republicans were only able to pick up one seat from Democrats.5 However, Cook Political Report argues that the one seat gained from Democrats actually represents about 10 to 15 seats being fortified for the GOP, given that the majority of legislators who benefited from redistricting were Republicans.6
How Will Turnover Affect State Legislatures?
Having such a high number of new lawmakers is sure to have an effect on the operations and effectiveness of state legislatures. Governing Magazine highlighted the following as possible effects of this kind of change7:
Replacing experienced lawmakers with new ones can mean a loss of institutional memory, giving unelected officials such as aides and lobbyists greater influence and shifting the focus towards partisanship and ideology. Term limits may end up reinforcing a state’s majority party because minority parties – especially those in small-population states – may find it hard to produce enough credible candidates to replace their party members who are termed-out. New, term-limited lawmakers that aspire for leadership positions must ascend quickly, which makes them more likely to focus on ideology, personality and fundraising, instead of effectiveness or learning the procedural and substantive ropes.
Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2012 at: http://ballotpedia.com/wiki/index.php/Impact_of_term_limits_on_state_legislative_elections_in_2012 (accessed June 22, 2012). 5 NCSL, 7,383 at: http://ncsl.typepad.com/the_thicket/2012/06/7383.html (June 19, 2012). 6 Cook Political Report, 2012 Cook Political Report Redistricting Outlook at: http://cookpolitical.com/node/10516 (accessed June 22, 2012); Red State, Cook: State Republican parties gave national GOP 9 seats for 2012 at: http://www.redstate.com/moe_lane/2012/04/15/cook-state-republican-parties-gave-national-gop-9-seats-for-2012/ (April 15, 2012). 7 Governing, id., supra note 1. Experienced lawmakers have developed working partnerships with those across the aisle, while new lawmakers lack those relationships and may act aggressively or be less willing to cooperate.
Impact of Citizen’s United & Super PACs on state elections
On January 21, 2010, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission that the federal government may not prohibit direct corporate and union spending on advertising for candidates’ elections. The ruling blurs the lines between corporate and individual contributions in political campaigns and strikes down part of the 2002 McCain-Feingold campaign finance law that banned unions and corporations from paying for political ads in the final days of campaigns.8 The ruling does not directly affect state laws, but it is having a profound effect on the laws governing corporate political activity in the 24 states that, as of the ruling, prohibited or restricted corporate and/or union spending on candidate elections.9
Many of those states have or are considering repealing or re-writing their laws to avoid legal challenges under the new standard set by the Supreme Court; others have chosen to stop enforcing their laws. The ruling is also credited with and/or blamed for creating a new class of political action committees – known as Super PACs – which make no contributions to candidates or parties and therefore can accept unlimited contributions from individuals, corporations and unions. These Super PACs have to a degree replaced political parties as a conduit for large, often anonymous contributions, giving donors a way to exceed the $2,500 individual contribution limit and to circumvent the bar on corporate and labor contributions to federal candidates.10
A January 2012 Pew Center poll found that 78 percent of those who have heard a lot about these new rules on independent expenditures say they are having a negative effect on the 2012 presidential campaign.11
The impact of the ruling on state legislative races is not really known yet, though some expect the amount spent by Super PACs to be sizeable.12 A report from the National Institute on Money in State Politics recently found that donors who gave $25,000 or more to Super PACs in 2011 also donated $36.8 million to state campaigns during the 2008-2010 elections. The report says that the role Super
8 National Public Radio, Supreme Court Rips Up Campaign Finance Laws at: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=122805666 (January 21, 2010). 9 NCSL, Life After Citizens United at: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/citizens-united-and-the- states.aspx (accessed June 21, 2012); 10 Slate, Super-Soft Money at: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2011/10/citizens_united_how_justice_kennedy_has_pav ed_the_way_for_the_re.html (October 21, 2011). 11 Pew Research Center, Super PACs Having Negative Impact, Say Voters Aware of 'Citizens United' Ruling at: http://www.people-press.org/2012/01/17/super-pacs-having-negative-impact-say-voters-aware-of-citizens-united-ruling/ (January 17, 2012). 12 Columbia Journalism Review, Super PACs at the State Level: A Different Story, at http://www.cjr.org/the_kicker/super_pacs_at_the_state_level.php (April 16, 2012). PACs play in state elections will be uncertain until nearer the 2012 elections, but predicts that the donors supporting them are likely to continue giving at both the state and federal levels.13
The institute argues that it may be months before reporters have access to much data on that spending, because super PACs have historically mostly focused on federal races and because states’ reporting deadlines are generally much later than federal ones.14
Current State Legislative Party Control
Coming into the November 2012 elections, Republicans hold a strong advantage over Democrats. They control 59 legislative chambers, and have virtual control in unicameral Nebraska, which is nominally non-partisan but behaviorally Republican. Democrats control 37 chambers and two (the Alaska House and Oregon Senate) are evenly divided.
Republicans control both legislative chambers in 26 states, while Democrats control both chambers in 15 states. Party control is divided in the other eight.15
13 National Institute on Money in State Politics, Super PAC Contributors Impact State Campaigns, at http://www.followthemoney.org/press/ReportView.phtml?r=479 (February 10, 2012); NCSL, What Role will Independent PACs Play in State Legislative Races? http://ncsl.typepad.com/the_thicket/2012/05/what-role-will-independent-pacs-play- in-state-legislative-races.html (May 22, 2012). 14 Columbia Journalism Review, id., supra note 12. 15 State Net Capitol Journal, Dems seek comeback in legislative races but GOP holds edge at: http://www.statenet.com/capitol_journal/05-21-2012/html#sncj_spotlight (May 21, 2012); NCSL, 2012 Party Composition of State Legislatures at: http://www.ncsl.org/documents/statevote/2012_Legis_and_State.pdf (June 6, 2012).
Potential Shifts in Legislative Party Control
When examining which state legislative chambers may be vulnerable to changes in party control, pundits often focus on states where the presidential race is close and legislative control is already narrowly divided. These swing states usually have more concentrated political advertising leading up to the election, making it possible for there to be a spillover effect on congressional and state legislative races.
In May 2012, Gallup identified 12 states where the presidential race is expected to be closely contested: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.16 In the most populous of these – Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania – Republicans already have sizeable leads in the state legislature and are unlikely to lose them no matter what happens in the presidential race. Republicans are also expected to maintain power in the North Carolina legislature and they will retain power in Virginia, which does not hold state elections this year.
The remaining swing states – Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Wisconsin – are considered competitive to varying degrees. One or more chambers in Alaska, Arkansas, Maine, Minnesota, New York and Oregon could also be in play.17
An issue that could have a negative impact on Republican power is the conflict that several Republican governors and lawmakers have had with public employees in Midwestern states such as Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.18
There are eight Republican-controlled chambers currently considered vulnerable to Democratic takeover (the Colorado House, Maine House and Senate, Minnesota House and Senate, New Hampshire House, New York Senate and Wisconsin Senate); six Democrat-controlled chambers vulnerable to Republican takeover (the Arkansas House and Senate, Iowa Senate, Nevada Senate, New Mexico House and Oregon Senate); and two tied chambers vulnerable to change hands (the Alaska Senate and Oregon House). These states legislatures are discussed in more detail below.
16 Gallup, Obama-Romney Race Competitive in 2012 Swing States at: http://www.gallup.com/poll/154502/Obama-Romney- Race-Competitive-2012-Swing-States.aspx (May 7, 2012). 17 NCSL, 2012 State Legislative Election Preview and Other Tidbits from State Net at: http://ncsl.typepad.com/the_thicket/2012/05/2012-state-legislative-election-preview-and-other-tidbits-from-state- net.html (May 21, 2012); State Net Capitol Journal, id., supra note 15. 18 NCSL, A View of the 2012 Elections from 9 Months Out at: http://ncsl.typepad.com/the_thicket/2012/02/a-view-of-the- 2012-elections-from-9-months-out.html (February 20, 2012).
Vulnerable Republican-controlled chambers
Colorado House of Representatives
Democrats may have their best opportunity to take over a legislature by winning the Colorado House. President Obama carried the state in 2008 and Democrats were largely able to defy the Republican trend in 2010.19 Colorado Democrats currently control the 35-member Senate by five votes and are hoping to pick up the House, where Republicans currently hold a one-vote margin (33-32).
All 65 of the House seats will be up for election and 23 of these seats are open; 11 Democratic incumbents and 12 Republican incumbents are not running for reelection.20
Redistricting has also put Democrats in a favorable position. After the state Supreme Court rejected a bipartisan-compromise proposal, the state’s Reapportionment Commission had to go back to the drawing board and selected a Democratic-drawn map, which was then approved by the court. Republicans criticized the approved map as “unconstitutional” and “politically vindictive.”21
The new map includes seven instances where Republican incumbents, including House Majority Leader Amy Stephens and Senate Minority Leader Bill Cadman, were drawn into the same district, while Democratic incumbents were drawn together in just three districts. The new map makes 38 of the 100 legislative seats in both chambers competitive – 24 in the 65-member House and 14 in the 35-member Senate. Sixty legislative seats are considered to be safe – 35 for Republicans and 25 for Democrats.22
Maine State Legislature
In the 2010 election, Maine Republicans took control of both chambers of the legislature and the governor's office for the first time since 1966. But Mainers have a strong independent streak, and with 13 open seats in the Senate and a close margin in the House, the 2012 election could shift party control.23 The state is also expected to go Democratic in the presidential election, which could impact the state-level elections.24
19 State Net Capitol Journal, id., supra note 15. 20 Ballotpedia Colorado House of Representatives elections, 2012 at: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Colorado_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012 (accessed June 12, 2012). 21 CBS Denver, Colorado Supreme Court OKs New Legislative Districts at: http://denver.cbslocal.com/2011/12/12/colorado- supreme-court-oks-new-legislative-districts/ (December 12, 2011); the Denver Post, Colorado Supreme Court sides with Democrats, picks their maps for new legislative districts at: http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_19531225 (December 12, 2011); Reporter, Herald Colorado Supreme Court OKs Democrat-drawn state legislative districts at: http://www.reporterherald.com/news/larimer-county/ci_19530700 (December 12, 2011). 22 Ballot News, Two states alter 2012 primary dates at: http://ballotnews.org/2011/12/16/redistricting-roundup-two-states- alter-2012-primary-dates/ (December 16, 2011). 23 Portland Press Herald, Democrats, GOP set for big election year at: http://www.pressherald.com/news/democrats-gop- set-for-big-election-year-_2012-02-06.html (February 6, 2012). 24 The Huffington Post, 2012 Maine President: Romney vs. Obama at: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012- maine-president-romney-vs-obama (accessed June 18, 2012); Portland Press Herald, Poll: Obama favorability rating is lower Republicans control the House 77-72, with Independents controlling one seat and one seat vacant after the January 2012 resignation of Representative David Burns, R-Alfred.25 All 151 House seats will be up for reelection in November; 46 of these are open seats, with 24 Republicans, 21 Democrats and 1 non- partisan incumbent leaving office. 26
Republicans currently control the Senate 19-15, with Independents controlling one seat. All 35 Senate seats will be up for reelection and 13 of these are open; seven Democrats, five Republicans and one Independent are leaving office.
Minnesota State Legislature
Minnesota has long-been a Democratic-leaning state, but like so many others, it swung sharply to the right in the 2010 midterms. In that election, Republicans took control of the House and, for the first time since the early 1970’s, the Senate, but fell just short of taking over the governor’s mansion. Despite controlling each chamber by about 10 votes, the Liberal and Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Parties, which are affiliates of the Democratic Party, have a decent shot at taking back control of both houses of the legislature due to redistricting changes and spillover from the Democratic candidates at the top of the ticket.27
In the Senate, Republicans currently hold a 37-30 majority over the Liberal and DFL Parties, and all 67 seats are up for reelection. Republicans control the House by a 72-62 margin and all 134 seats are up for election.28
In March 2012, DFL State Chair Ken Martin said that, as a result of redistricting changes, the DFL has at least a slight advantage in 34 Senate districts and 73 House districts. If they win all of those seats, the DFL would have a substantial (73-61) majority in the House and a single vote majority (34-33) in the Senate. The Pioneer Press also reviewed the redistricting changes and predicted that if voters follow party lines, the DFL would gain a 73-61 majority in the House, but they predicted that the DFL would only pick up one Senate seat, leaving Republicans with a 36-31 majority in the House.29
The state races could also be impacted by the presidential election and the U.S. Senate race, which pits the wildly popular Democrat Amy Klobuchar against freshman Representative Kurt Bills. Polling
in Maine at: http://www.pressherald.com/news/maine-poll-tracks-reverse-trend-than-rest-of-nation_2012-05-12.html (May 12, 2012). 25 NECN, Maine lawmaker to serve 6 months for forgery at: http://www.necn.com/06/14/12/Maine-lawmaker-to-serve-6- months-for-for/landing_nation.html?&apID=29f078d548074deebbb3439149c20ac1 (June 14, 2012). 26 Ballotpedia, Maine House of Representatives Elections 2012 at: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Maine_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012 (accessed June 15, 2012). 27 Minnesota Post, Redistricting maps give DFL advantage in legislative races, but… at: http://www.minnpost.com/eric- black-ink/2012/03/redistricting-maps-give-dfl-advantage-legislative-races-%E2%80%A6 (March 14, 2012); NCSL, id., supra note 17. 28 NCSL, id., supra note 17. 29 Minnesota Post, id., supra note 27. currently gives Obama an 10.5-point advantage and Senator Klobuchar a 25-point advantage in the state.30
New Hampshire House Representatives
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), there is an “outside chance” that the New Hampshire House could be taken over by Democrats. Republicans control the chamber by a 290-104-6 margin. While it seems unlikely that such a power shift will happen, the chamber has 400 tiny districts, so a slight shift in the vote could have big consequences.31
The New York Senate
Republicans regained control of the New York Senate by two votes in 2010 (their current margin is 33- 29) and Democrats are fighting hard to win the chamber back. Republicans had controlled the Senate from 1965 to 2008 prior to Democrats grabbing a narrow majority for two years. The Senate is also the only chamber in the country adding a seat due to redistricting changes, which may help the GOP retain control.
Democrats in state races could benefit from spillover from the presidential and U.S. Senate races. Most polls have the state going to President Obama; and Democratic Senate incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand is currently polling more than 30 points above her opponent, though analysts expect the gap to narrow in the coming weeks, now that the primary has been settled. New York City attorney Wendy Long ran as a staunch conservative to win the Republican Senate primary on June 26. She must now raise money and gain name recognition in order to make the race against Senator Gillibrand more competitive.32
One race to watch will be that between Senator David Carlucci, D-Clarkstown, and Republican Janis Castaldi, the former Ossining deputy mayor. On June 26, the New York State Conservative Party announced that it was reviewing and could drop its support of Castaldi due to her being married to another woman. It appears that the GOP could essentially be conceding the race to Carlucci, who is one of four Senate Democrats that broke away from the party’s caucus to form the Independent Democratic Caucus, which has had an alliance with the Senate GOP on several issues and have received committee chairmanships from Republican leaders.33
30 Real Clear Politics, Minnesota: Romney vs. Obama at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mn/minnesota_romney_vs_obama-1823.html (accessed July 23, 2012); Real Clear Politics, Minnesota: Senate: Bills vs. Klobuchar at:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/mn/minnesota_senate_bills_vs_klobuchar-3230.html (accessed July 23, 2012); Reuters, In Wisconsin and Minnesota, lessons for Romney at: http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/15/us- usa-campaign-republicans-minnesota-idINBRE85E0K820120615 (June 15, 2012). 31 State Net Capitol Journal, Id., supra note 15. 32 Real Clear Politics, Long wins NY Senate GOP primary to face Gillibrand at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2012/Jun/27/long_wins_ny_senate_gop_primary_to_face_gillibrand.ht ml (June 27, 2012). 33 Huffington Post, Janis Castaldi, New York State Senate Candidate, May Lose Conservative Party Backing at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/26/janis-castaldi-new-york-senate-same-sex-marriage_n_1627435.html (June 26, 2012). Wisconsin State Senate
After the June 2012 recall election vote, Democrats regained control of the Wisconsin Senate and now have a one-seat majority.
Prior to the election, the 35-member chamber had been split 16-16 with one vacancy. Democrats essentially forced Republican Governor Scott Walker, Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch, Republican Senate Leader Scott Fitzgerald, GOP Senator Van Wanggaard and two other GOP senators into recalls earlier this year as retribution for supporting the governor’s contentious collective bargaining plan. The June recall election gave a one-seat advantage to Democrats when former Democratic state Senator John Lehman narrowly defeated Senator Wanggaard in a rematch of their 2010 race. Senator Wanggaard initially asked for a recount and indicated that he would pursue legal action for alleged voting irregularities if he did not win, but later decided to drop his recount appeal and conceded.34
In November, 16 of the Senate’s 35 seats will be up for election.35 Even though Democrats will head into that election with a majority, redistricting changes could allow Republicans to regain Senate control. GOP lawmakers were able to draw the state’s redistricting maps without any consultation with Democrats. Despite a federal legal challenge from Democrats and Hispanic groups, who unsuccessfully argued that the maps were unconstitutional and intentionally diluted Hispanic voting power, the Republicans appear to have consolidated power in some seats and may gain a handful of new ones in November.36
Vulnerable Democratic-controlled chambers:
Arkansas General Assembly
Arkansas is the only state in the South where Democrats currently control both chambers of the legislature. Democrats had dominated the political landscape in the state for more than a century.
34 Wausau Daily Herald, Democrats claim state Senate win at: http://www.wausaudailyherald.com/article/20120607/WDH010405/206070530/Democrats-claim-state-Senate-win (June 6, 2012); Journal-Sentinel, Racine Senate recount could wind up in court at: http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/racine-senate-recount-could-wind-up-in-court-7d5tj65-160448485.html (June 26, 2012); Huffington Post, Van Wanggaard, Republican Wisconsin State Senator, Drops Recount Appeal at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/10/van-wanggaard-wisconsin-state-senate-recount_n_1661876.html (July 10, 2012). 35 Talking Points Memo, GOP State Senator Demands Recount In Wisconsin Recalls at: http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/06/gop-state-senator-demands-recount-in-wisconsin-recalls----is-down-12- percent.php (June 15, 2012); Ballotpedia, Wisconsin State Senate Elections 2012 at: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Wisconsin_State_Senate_elections,_2012 (accessed June 15, 2012). 36 The Pioneer Press, Wisconsin's legal bill in redistricting suit nears $1M at: http://www.twincities.com/politics/ci_20755036/wisconsins-legal-bill-redistricting-suit-nears-1m (May 31, 2012); WSAU, Report: Taxpayers spent $925K to defend redistricting process in court at: http://wsau.com/news/articles/2012/may/31/report-taxpayers-spent-925k-to-defend-redistricting-process-in-court/ (May 31, 2012). When other Southern state legislatures started trending Republican after the 1994 midterm elections, weak GOP candidates and Arkansas Democrat Bill Clinton’s rise to the White House helped Democrats retain power.37
In recent years, however, the tide has started to turn. Arkansas voted Republican in the 2008 presidential election and is expected to do so again this fall. President Obama has never been popular in the state, even with many Democrats, and his recent announcement supporting gay marriage has magnified his unpopularity in some parts of the state.38
Democrats currently hold just a five-vote majority in the Senate (20-15) and an eight-vote majority in the House (54-46). Arkansas voters will vote for all 100 House seats and all 35 Senate seats on November 6. The state Republican Party plans to field the largest number of GOP candidates in more than 150 years for offices ranging from justice of the peace to Congress, making them hopeful that Republicans will achieve significant gains.39
Iowa State Senate
Political leaders from both parties predict that this will be one of the most spirited general election battles in recent Iowa history. Republicans hope to gain unified control of state government by capturing the Senate this fall; they currently control the governor’s mansion and hold 60 of 100 seats in the House. Democrats currently lead the Senate by just two votes, 26-24.40
In June, Republicans competed in 36 House and Senate primary contests, including two where Republican incumbents had to run against each other because of redistricting. Several of these primary races involved ideological challenges between conservative and moderate Republicans that “revealed a divide within the party,” according to the Des Moines Register.41
If they’re successful in winning the House, Republicans are expected to pursue a sharply conservative agenda that includes a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, further restrictions on 42 abortion, changes in labor relations and deep tax and spending cuts.
37 The Republican Party of Arkansas, Arkansas GOP aims for statehouse sweep at: http://www.arkansasgop.org/index.cfm?p=Articles&ContentRecord_id=df1be716-fded-4190-aabe- 212b6d2075a8&ContentType_id=8a63927c-ee30-4a43-9d7d-916aae00c80f&Group_id=010833ee-7ad8-40dd-a1a6- 9990dd99b22c (February 26, 2012). 38 National Public Radio, Negative Coattails: Could Obama Cost Arkansas Democrats the Legislature? at: http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/05/18/152995033/obama-won-t-carry-arkansas-but-could-he-cost- democrats-the-legislature (May 18, 2012). 39 The Republican Party of Arkansas, id., supra note 37. 40 NCSL, Primary Results in California, Iowa, Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota at: http://ncsl.typepad.com/the_thicket/2012/06/primary-results-in-iowa-montana-new-mexico-and-south-dakota.html (June 8, 2012); the Des Moines Register, Iowa legislative primaries a mixed bag for moderate, conservative Republican candidates at: http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/06/05/iowa-legislative-primaries-a-mixed-bag-for-moderate- conservative-republican-candidates/ (June 5, 2012). 41 NCSL and the Des Moines Register, id., supra note 40. 42 The Des Moines Register, id., supra note 40. Nevada State Senate
Democrats will also have to play defense in Nevada, where they control the Senate by just one vote, 11-10. Thirteen seats will be up for election; the two seats that are expected to ultimately determine party control are Districts 5 and 6, which are currently held by Democratic incumbents – Allison Copening and Shirley Breeden – who are not seeking reelection.43
Just how close the race may be was made evident when popular state Senator Sheila Leslie, who held the Democrats’ safest district in Northern Nevada, agreed to resign her seat and run against Republican state Senator Greg Brower in a much tougher district – SD-15 – where she bought a house more than a year ago. The move gives Democrats a shot at winning SD-15 that they otherwise would not have had. Even though the district is evenly split by voter registration, President Obama won 57 percent and Harry Reid won 54 percent of the vote in 2008, and Senator Leslie represented part of the district when she served in the Assembly.44
Nevada is considered a key swing state in the presidential election, and voters are expected to turn out in big numbers for the contested U.S. Senate race between Republican U.S. Senator Dean Heller and Democratic U.S. Representative Shelley Berkley. Interest in the Senate race is expected to keep growing – a group backed by former President George W. Bush’s Chief of Staff Karl Rove has already spent more than $300,000 on ads attacking Berkley’s record.
New Mexico House of Representatives
The New Mexico Legislature is poised for its most radical change in two decades, as near-record numbers of lawmakers have decided to retire or seek another office. The last time this many lawmakers left office voluntarily was 1992, which, like 2012, was the first election cycle after redistricting.45
All 112 seats in the Legislature are up for election; seven of 42 Senate seats are open and 12 of 70 House members are giving up their seats, though six of them are running for seats in the Senate. Democrats currently hold a 28-14 margin in the Senate and are expected to maintain control there, but they only lead Republicans in the House by four seats (36-33-1).
Republicans have also lost a seat due to redistricting. The new maps consolidated District 57 (then- represented by Republican Representative Dennis Kintigh) with District 66 (represented by Representative Bob Wooley). The two friends squared off in the June 2012 primary and Representative
43 FOX Reno, Today's primary election a warmup to November at: http://www.foxreno.com/news/news/state-regional- govt-politics/todays-primary-election-warmup-november/nPRgL/ (June 12, 2012). 44 The Daily Kos, Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Nevada state Sen. Sheila Leslie is my new hero at: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/17/1065692/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-Nevada-state-Sen-Sheila-Leslie- is-my-new-hero (February 17, 2012). 45 Santa Fe New Mexican, Elections bring major face-lift to N.M. Legislature at: http://www.santafenewmexican.com/localnews/Elections-bring-major-face-lift-to-N-M--Legislature (March 18, 2012). Wooley was able to maintain his seat.46 Redistricting also forced two Democrats into one district, though one of them opted to give up that seat to run for the Public Regulation Commission.47
At least one insider expects the GOP to pick up just one or two seats in November, which would leave the Democrats in control.
Oregon State Senate
In Oregon, 14 of 30 seats will be up for grabs in the Senate, where Democrats currently hold a 16-14 margin. Three incumbents – two Republicans and one Democrat – are retiring. It is possible that the 16-14 split favoring the Democrats will hold. Republicans will have to defend six seats they won from the Democrats in 2010, all of which have a Democratic edge in voter registration. Democrats are expected to successfully defend four open seats that Republicans are making a run at.48
The most competitive race appears to be for Senate District 25, where Democratic incumbent Laurie Monnes Anderson of Gresham is running for reelection against Gresham dentist Scott Hansen.49
Oregon has no U.S. Senate or gubernatorial elections in 2012, which could mean lower turnout or a less coordinated campaign season, though the New York Times thinks Oregon could be an important swing state in the presidential election. “If there is an unheralded state that could be in play this year, it might be Oregon. Oregon has been sparsely polled, but the most recent survey found a tight race there, and the state has been extremely competitive in the past – like in 2000 when Al Gore won it by less than a full percentage point,” they reported.50
Tied chambers that are vulnerable to change:
Alaska State Senate
While the 40-member Alaska House is expected to stay firmly in Republican hands, control of the evenly split Senate is up for grabs. The 10-10 split has fostered a bipartisan coalition since 2007. The bipartisan majority currently consists of 10 Democrats and six Republicans, with four Republican minority members. Three Democrats also caucused with the GOP last year.
46 Las Cruces Sun-News, 21 of 112 legislators leaving office this year, though 6 hope to jump to Senate at: http://www.lcsun- news.com/las_cruces-news/ci_20779762/21-112-legislators-leaving-office-this-year-though (June 4, 2012); Capitol Report New Mexico, Analysis of NM primary: Voters say they’ll make their own decisions at: http://www.capitolreportnewmexico.com/?p=9863 (June 6, 2012). 47 NM Politics, Park’s opponents raise ethical questions at: http://www.nmpolitics.net/index/2012/05/parks-opponents- raise-ethical-questions/ (May 28, 2012). 48 Oregon Live, The Legislative List: Oregon House Republicans on defense in fall elections at: http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2012/06/the_legislative_list_oregon_re.html (June 15, 2012). 49 Oregon Live, id., supra note 49; the Daily Kos, http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/15/1064937/-Oregon-Elections- in-2012 50 The New York Times, Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage at: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/07/election-forecast-obama-begins-with-tenuous-advantage/ (June 7, 2012); NCSL, id., supra note 17.
Democrats hope to capitalize on an apparent rift in the state GOP, focusing on infighting between the “new” Alaska Republican party – led by supporters of Tea Party candidate Joe Miller and Libertarian Republican Ron Paul – and outgoing party chairman Randy Ruedrich.51
Former Republican state Representative and blogger Andrew Halcro predicts that the GOP will hold a 14-6 advantage in the Senate, and pick up at least five seats in the House to give them a 28-12 advantage. These numbers would give Republicans an overall 42-18 super majority in both chambers of the Legislature, and give the GOP the necessary votes to override gubernatorial vetoes.52
Oregon House of Representatives
The Oregon House – which is currently evenly split 16-16 – could experience a shift in power when all 60 seats go up for election in November. In terms of voter registration, Democrats have a large advantage over Republicans, outnumbering them by about 170,000 voters, though seven incumbent Democrats are not running for reelection and only one Republican is giving up their seat.53
Governor Races
In 2012, gubernatorial elections are taking place in 11 states (Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia) and Republicans again hold the advantage. They have to defend three seats, while Democrats must defend eight. Six of the gubernatorial races include incumbent governors running for reelection, while five are open seats to replace governors who are term-limited or who are not seeking reelection.54
Gubernatorial elections are also taking place in two U.S. territories – American Samoa (where Democratic Governor Togiola T.A. Tulafono has been termed out) and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico (where Republican Governor Luis Fortuño is running for reelection).55
51 The Republic, Alaska Democrats seek to capitalize on apparent rift in state Republican party at: http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/70aab9ccf33c461ba4990db8d45145c2/AK--Alaska-GOP-Rift-Democrats (June 11, 2012). 52 Alaska Dispatch, Halcro: GOP will likely take over Alaska Legislature this fall at: http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/halcro-gop-will-likely-take-over-alaska-legislature-fall (June 10, 2012). 53 Daily Kos, The State of Oregon's 2012 Races at: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/31/1096131/-The-State-of- Oregon-s-2012-Races (May 31, 2012); Ballotpedia, Oregon House of Representatives elections, 2012 at: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Oregon_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012 (accessed June 25, 2012). 54 National Governors Association, 2012 Gubernatorial Elections at: http://www.nga.org/files/live/sites/NGA/files/pdf/2012ELECTIONFACTS.PDF (accessed June 18, 2012). 55 National Governors Association, id., supra note 55.
Delaware
Delaware’s Democratic Governor Jack Markell is expected to win a second term in the 2012 election. The incoming National Governors Association chairman and former Democratic Governors Association chair is a rising Democratic star, listed by the Washington Post as one of the nation’s 10 most popular governors. His approval ratings have consistently been in the high-50s and low-60s, even as he has tackled difficult issues, like raising taxes, pension reform and negotiating budget-cutting concessions from public employee unions.56
He is running against Republican Jeff Cragg, a Mailboxes Etc. storeowner and former New Castle County GOP Chair. He argues that the state needs to reduce regulations and lower taxes to create jobs.57
Indiana
Republicans are expected to retain the governorship in Indiana, though Democrats still have a fighting chance at a pickup.
56 Newsworks, the Tornoe Spin: the face of the “new” Delaware GOP at: http://www.newsworks.org/index.php?option=com_flexicontent&view=items&id=32615:the-tornoe-spin (January 13, 2012); Governing, Previewing the 2012 Governor’s Races at: http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/reviewing-2012- governors-races.html (January 18, 2012); the Washington Post, Our 10 most popular governors, revisited at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/our-top-10-most-popular-governors- revisited/2012/04/12/gIQAEOaPDT_blog.html (April 12, 2012). 57 WBOC, Republican Jeff Cragg Enters Race for Delaware Governor, at: http://www.wboc.com/story/17382190/republican- jeff-cragg-enters-race-for-delaware-governor (April 11, 2012).
The race to succeed term-limited Republican Governor Mitch Daniels took shape early, with six-term Republican U.S. Representative Mike Pence and former Democratic House Speaker John Gregg announcing their candidacies in May of 2011, but has remained relatively quiet since. Much of the attention has been focused instead on the competitive Republican primary in the U.S. Senate race, and Representative Pence has been campaigning part-time while he continues to tend to his Congressional duties, limiting the opportunity for much back-and-forth between the candidates.58
Indiana is heavily Republican, which gives Representative Pence the early advantage and current polls give him a +13 edge, but Gregg has mounted a strong campaign. Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, speculates that the strengthening auto industry, both nationally and in Indiana, could boost Gregg’s chances.59
Missouri
Missouri’s Democratic Governor Jay Nixon is expected to win reelection, with current polls giving him between 11 and 14-point margins over potential Republican opponents Dave Spence and Bill Randles. By governing as a centrist, Nixon has solidified his already strong position and is almost as likely to get votes from Republicans as Democrats. Republicans, meanwhile, hope the state’s slow economic recovery and an expected tight presidential and U.S. Senate contest will help them recapture the seat.60
The Republican primary does not take place until August 7 and the Republican Governor’s Association has yet to endorse a candidate. Current polling gives the edge to Spence, a wealthy suburban St. Louis businessman, over Kansas City attorney Randles.61 The Cook Political Report posits that the presidential race may have as much of an impact on Governor Nixon’s fortunes as anything his Republican opponent does. Romney currently has a +3 advantage in polls.62
Montana
In conservative Montana, term-limited Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer is stepping down, and the race to replace him is expected to be one of the most competitive in the country. Former Republican Congressman Rick Hill survived tough competition in a crowded primary and will face off
58 The Cook Political Report, Indiana Governor: Baseline Report at: http://cookpolitical.com/governors/updates (June 14, 2012); Governing, id., supra note 57. 59 The Delaware Gazette, Democrats on defense in 2012 governor’s races at: http://delgazette.com/2012/02/democrats-on- defense-in-2012-governors-8217-races/; Real Clear Politics, Election 2012 Governor Polls at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/governor/# (accessed June 19, 2012). 60 Delaware Gazette and Real Clear Politics, id., supra note 60; Governing, id., supra note 57. 61 FOX 2, Ohio Gov. Kasich Raising Money For Missouri Challenger at: http://fox2now.com/2012/06/19/ohio-gov-kasich- raising-money-for-missouri-challenger/ (June 19, 2012). 62 The Cook Political Report, Missouri Governor: Baseline Report at: http://cookpolitical.com/governors/updates (June 7, 2012); Real Clear Politics, Missouri: Romney vs. Obama at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mo/missouri_romney_vs_obama-1800.html (accessed June 19, 2012). against the state’s Democratic Attorney General Steve Bullock. The Cook Political Report and Real Clear Politics’ currently list this race as a tossup.63
Republicans are enthusiastic about their prospects, but the Democrats’ hold on the seat of Governor Schweitzer looks better than one might expect. Bullock is considered likable, with an attractive young family and a background as a prosecutor. He may also have deeper pockets going into the final stretch, as Hill has been forced to spend a large chunk of his money getting through the primary.64
New Hampshire
There is currently no clear frontrunner in the New Hampshire gubernatorial election, and with the state’s primary not taking place until September 11, there is sure to be lots of activity leading up to election day. The wildly popular Democratic Governor John Lynch is retiring after serving a record four consecutive two-year terms, but Democrats will have to fight hard to retain his seat.
Over the last decade, the state experienced a gradual Democratic shift and President Obama easily won the state in 2008, but the state went heavily Republican in 2010 and is considered a swing state in this year’s presidential contest. While President Obama is currently polling +4, Romney also is just beginning to awaken a local campaign apparatus largely dormant for months. Both campaigns are flooding the tiny state with money and attention, and effects of that may trickle down to the gubernatorial election.65
On the GOP side, two-time statewide conservative candidate Ovide Lamontagne is considered the favorite over Kevin Smith, the executive director of Cornerstone Action, a conservative group that attacked Governor Lynch and the then-Democratic-led Legislature throughout the 2010 cycle. Former state Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan is a favorite in the Democratic primary. She will have to fend off former state Senator Jackie Cilley and political newcomer Bill Kennedy.
Current polls give Lamontagne a one-point advantage over Hassan, while a Lamontagne-Cilley contest is listed as a tie.66
63 The Cook Political Report, Governors at: http://cookpolitical.com/governors#belowMap (accessed June 20, 2012); Real Clear Politics, Montana Governor – Hill vs. Bullock at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/governor/mt/montana_governor_hill_vs_bullock-1839.html (accessed June 20, 2012). 64 The Delaware Gazette, id., supra note 60; Governing, id., supra note 57; CBS News, Four non-Wisconsin takeaways from Tuesday's primaries at: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57448214-503544/four-non-wisconsin-takeaways- from-tuesdays-primaries/ (June 6, 2012) 65 The Delaware Gazette, id., supra note 60; Governing, id., supra note 57; the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Battleground NH: Indies key in Romney backyard at: http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/battleground-nh-indies-key-1458130.html (June 14, 2012). 66 Real Clear Politics, id., supra note 60. North Carolina
The race to replace North Carolina Democratic Governor Bev Perdue is expected to be one of the tightest in the country. Governor Perdue was considered by many to be the most vulnerable potential incumbent and opted to step down after a single rocky term. Republicans are optimistic about their odds to take over the seat, but Democrats appear to be gaining back some ground.
The Democratic candidate, Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton, had whittled down Republican Pat McCrory’s double-digit lead to six points as of May. As of June 13, McCrory was leading 47 percent to 40 percent.67 Republicans are enthusiastic about McCrory, the former mayor of Charlotte, who lost narrowly to Governor Perdue in 2008. They also feel momentum is on their side after taking control of the state legislature in 2010 for the first time in over a century and after winning passage of an amendment banning gay marriage earlier this year. They also hope to capitalize on the widespread dissatisfaction with Governor Perdue and on a sexual harassment scandal in the state’s Democratic Party.68
Democrats are hoping for a boost from Obama – who chose Charlotte as the site of the Democratic National Convention in an effort to win the state for the second straight time – and from voters who want there to be a check on the GOP-controlled legislature.
North Dakota
North Dakota’s Republican Governor Jack Dalrymple is expected to win reelection in 2012. Governor Dalrymple became governor in 2010, rising from the position of Lieutenant Governor to complete the unexpired term of Governor John Hoeven following his election to the U.S. Senate. As of November 2011, Governor Dalrymple enjoyed a 61 percent approval rating, and he has only helped his standing with his leadership role after severe flooding hit the state this spring.69
The Democratic candidate, state Senate Minority Leader Ryan Taylor, says he would like at least seven debates with the Republican incumbent this fall.70 The candidates are focusing much of their debate on property taxes and the state surplus. Governor Dalrymple has addressed the property tax issue in various ways while in office, including by signing a $500 million tax relief package during the 2011 legislative session and successfully working to defeat Measure 2, which would have abolished all
67 The News & Observer, N.C. governor’s race closer than expected at: http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/05/16/2066796/governors-race-closer-than-expected.html (May 16, 2012); the Huffington Post, NC-2012 Governor at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/13/nc-2012-governor-47- mccro_n_1593563.html (June 13, 2012); Real Clear Politics, id., supra note 60. 68 Reuters, Republicans look south for help in tough North Carolina race at: http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/09/us- usa-campaign-northcarolina-idINBRE85803020120609 (June 9, 2012); Rothenberg Political Report, Tar Heel Blues Continue for Democrats at: http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/tar-heel-blues-continue-for-democrats (February 3, 2012). 69 Governing, id., supra note 57; the Delaware Gazette, id., supra note 60. 70 The Devil’s Lake Journal, ND candidate wants at least seven debates in gov race at: http://www.devilslakejournal.com/news/x358790791/ND-candidate-wants-at-least-seven-debates-in-gov-race (May 22, 2012). property taxes in the state. Governor Dalrymple is highlighting plans to use the surplus to address the influx of residents in western North Dakota, by constructing housing and infrastructure and adding emergency services. The governor also pressed for the construction of a pipeline in the state.
Taylor is instead focusing on a new plan that would use the state’s surplus, which is funded primarily by oil revenues, to pay for a three-part tax relief plan for residents. It focuses on creating tax reduction strategies for residential and agricultural properties and implementing a tax credit for rental income.71
Some analysts feel that the governor’s race was sealed for Governor Dalrymple when former state attorney general and tax commissioner Heidi Heitkamp opted to run for retiring Democratic U.S. Senator Kent Conrad’s seat instead of the governorship. Indeed, much of the state’s political attention is focused on that race, as Heitkamp has managed to make competitive a race that many expected early on to be a slam-dunk for Republicans. Two polls in early June 2012 show Heitkamp and her opponent, Representative Rick Berg, in a statistical dead heat. If the GOP manages to pick up Senator Conrad’s seat, it could mean the difference between a U.S. Senate controlled by Democrats in 2013 and one controlled by Republicans.72
Utah
Utah’s Republican Governor Gary Herbert, fresh off a 2010 victory to fill the remaining two years of former Governor Jon Huntsman’s term, is expected to win a full four-year term in 2012.73 He is touting Utah’s economic recovery, with 36,000 jobs created in 2011 and an unemployment rate that decreased from eight percent to 5.7 percent, as a reason that voters should reelect him. As of March 2012, the governor was enjoying a 68 percent approval rating and on June 12, he was elected Chairman of the Western Governors’ Association.74
The odds seem long for Democrats, who have not had a governor in the state since 1985. Still, Herbert’s Democratic opponent – General Peter Stryker Cooke – is seeing burgeoning support across
71 The Huffington Post, Jack Dalrymple, Ryan Taylor Discuss Surplus And Property Taxes In North Dakota Governor's Race at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/19/jack-dalrymple-ryan-taylor-north-dakota-governor_n_1609515.html (June 19, 2012). 72 The Hill, North Dakota race a test for Dems seeking to retain Senate at: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate- races/231609-north-dakota-race-a-test-for-dems-seeking-to-retain-senate (June 7, 2012); The Washington Post, North Dakota’s Senate race is no sure thing for GOP at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/north-dakotas- senate-race-is-no-sure-thing-for-gop/2012/06/13/gJQAGeJQaV_blog.html (June 13, 2012); the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Competitive Senate race shaping up in North Dakota at: http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Competitive-Senate-race- shaping-up-in-North-Dakota-3578629.php#ixzz1yMYB0UEY (May 23, 2012). 73 Governing, id., note 47. 74 The Salt Lake Tribune, Herbert says Utah economy is best argument for his election at: http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/53710756-90/economy-election-governor-herbert.html.csp (May 13, 2012); Utah Policy, Utah Gov. Herbert Elected Western Governors' Assocation Chair at: http://utahpolicy.com/bookmark/18957074- Utah-Gov-Herbert-Elected-Western-Governors-Assocation-Chair (June 12, 2012). the state. His 39 years of military experience bears heavily on his campaign, and he hopes that his organizational experience will help him compete with Governor Herbert’s overflowing coffers.75
Vermont
Vermont’s Democratic Governor Peter Shumlin is expected to win a second two-year term as governor of the Green Mountain State. While Governor Shumlin narrowly won the 2010 gubernatorial race, flipping the office to the Democrats after eight years under Republican Jim Douglas, he has so far made no major errors and currently is polling +33 above his opponent.76 He may also see a bump from having President Obama, who holds a comfortable lead in the state, and Independent Senator Bernie Sanders on the ballot.
The incumbent governor says he is proud of what he had accomplished so far in office, but that he looks forward to continuing his agenda, which focuses on creating jobs and more economic opportunities for Vermonters, stopping the increase of health care costs, continuing Hurricane Irene recovery efforts, expanding broadband and cell phone service across the state, and investing in renewable energy future and children’s education.77
Governor Shumlin plans to wait until around Labor Day to formally kick off his campaign, while his challenger, Republican state Senator Randy Brock, will campaign throughout the summer to gain name recognition. Senator Brock says he will push for smaller government and lower taxes.
Washington
The competitive race to replace Washington Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire is currently considered a toss-up, though polls are giving the Republicans a three-point edge. Governor Gregoire is stepping down after serving two two-year terms as governor and Republicans have a good chance at electing their first Republican governor since John Spellman in 1980.
As of April 2012, fewer than one in four Olympia lobbyists expected the Democratic candidate, U.S. Rep. Jay Inslee, to win the governor’s race. Representative Inslee is an experienced politician, but his long association with Washington and the Democrat's long reign in power, gives Republicans an opening. They are backing the popular GOP state Attorney General Rob McKenna.78
75 The Huffington Post, Peter Cooke, Utah Governor Candidate, Looks To Unseat Gov. Gary Herbert at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jake-rush/peter-cooke-utah-governor-gary-herbert_b_1594573.html (June 18, 2012). 76 Governing, id., supra note 57; Real Clear Politics, id., supra note 60. 77 Real Clear Politics, Vt. Gov. Shumlin announces reelection bid at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2012/Jun/12/vt__gov__shumlin_announces_re_election_bid.html (June 12, 2012); WCAX, Vt. Gov. Shumlin announces reelection bid at: http://www.wcax.com/story/18765605/vt-gov- shumlin-announces-reelection-bid (June 12, 2012). 78 Politico, Wisconsin heads top gubernatorial races at: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75743.html (April 30, 2012); Governing, id., supra note 57; Real Clear Politics, id., supra note 60. The candidates focused their first debate on differences over charter schools, tax breaks for targeted small businesses, and whether a “super-majority” of both houses of the state Legislature should be required to raise revenue. The candidates are also competing for the upper hand on education issues; McKenna has earned endorsements from the Public School Employees of Washington and Stand for Children, an advocacy group that is on record as favoring charter schools but which typically endorses Democrats, while Inslee is the favorite of the state teachers union.79
Democrats could make up for the small lead that polls are giving McKenna by having President Obama at the top of the ballot. The President won the state handily in 2008 and will likely do so again in 2012.
West Virginia
The West Virginia governor’s race pits incumbent Democratic Governor Earl Ray Tomblin against Republican drilling executive Bill Maloney, who came within three points of beating Tomblin in a 2011 special election despite having almost no political experience and little name recognition. Governor Tomblin had become acting governor in 2010, following the election of Governor Joe Manchin III to the U.S. Senate. In January 2011, the state Supreme Court required that he run in an October 2011 special gubernatorial election to serve the remainder of Governor Manchin’s unexpired term.
Democrats have an edge for other statewide and legislative offices, giving Governor Tomblin a good chance to stay ahead, especially after a reasonably good session in which he cut food taxes. Governor Tomblin’s strategy also includes distancing himself from the President, who has always been unpopular in the state. In the 2008 Democratic primary, President Obama was trounced by Hillary Clinton, and John McCain won the state by 13 points in the general election. In 2012, a prison inmate took more than 40 percent of the vote against President Obama in the Democratic primary and Romney currently leads Obama by 17 points in polls.80
Governor Tomblin announced in June that he would not attend the Democratic National Convention due to serious problems with the President, likely over coal and energy issues. The governor will be joined by other so-called “New Deal Democrats” in skipping the convention; West Virginia’s Senator Joe Manchin and Congressman Nick Rahall and Pennsylvania Congressman Mark Critz also say they will not attend.
This lack of support in Appalachia and some Southern states might not be a huge concern for Democrats, whose strategy includes shifting the electoral map from Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s class- based “New Deal Coalition,” which brought together ethnic minorities and blue-collar whites in urban areas (many of them Catholics) and rural voters in the South and West (many of them Protestants),
79 The Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Inslee vs. McKenna: Big differences revealed in debate at: http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/06/12/inslee-vs-mckenna-big-differences-revealed-in-debate/ (June 12, 2012); the Olympian, UPDATE - McKenna lands Public School endorsement at: http://www.theolympian.com/2012/06/11/2136555/mckenna-lands-public-school-endorsement.html#storylink=cpy (June 11, 2012); 80 The Hill, Discontent with Obama in coal country grows at: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/233727-dem- rep-critz-wont-attend-democratic-national-convention (June 20, 2012). towards a new map that allows them to win every state that has a large and growing immigrant population and/or a large percentage of African-Americans.81
However, coal country’s growing dissatisfaction with the President could cost the Democrats if it spreads through Ohio and Pennsylvania, two states President Obama needs to win, or other swing states like Virginia.82
81 Real Clear Politics, New Deal Democrats Not Part of Obama Electoral Map at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/20/new_deal_democrats_not_part_of_obama_electoral_map_114549. html (June 20, 2012). 82 The Hill, id., supra note 81. About Whiteboard Advisors
Washington D.C. and state governments can be confusing. Seemingly unrelated political and policy issues cloud the legislative calendar, and conflicting expert opinions mask emerging trends. As a result, it is difficult to separate the substance from the rhetoric to accurately forecast funding levels or legislative and policy outcomes. The current education policy environment exemplifies this phenomenon.
Whiteboard Advisors is a policy-oriented consulting practice. We provide proprietary research and strategic support to investors and philanthropic donors, government leaders and entrepreneurs that seek unparalleled understanding of the education policy and business environment.
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2012 State Ballot Initiatives & Referenda
State Number Based Type Title Subject Description Off Bill #
ALABAMA Statewide SB 471 Legislatively- Alabama Environm The measure Amendment 1 referred Forever Wild ent would extend constitutional Land Trust payments made to amendment Amendment the Forever Wild Land Trust for a 20-year period. The payments would be from fiscal year 2012- 2013 to fiscal year 2031-2032. Statewide HB 12 Legislatively- Alabama Bond The measure Amendment 2 referred General Issues would allow the constitutional Obligation state to issue amendment Bond general obligation Amendment bonds of no more than $750 million.
Statewide Legislatively- Alabama Property The amendment Amendment 3 referred Baldwin Rights would define the constitutional County Stockton amendment Stockton Landmark District Landmark within Baldwin District County and to prohibit the annexation by local law of any property within the district into any municipality. Statewide SB 112 Legislatively- Alabama Civil The measure Amendment 4 referred Segregation Rights would remove constitutional Reference language from the amendment Ban Alabama Amendment Constitution that references segregation by race in schools. The measure would also repeal Section 259, which relates to poll taxes. Statewide Legislatively- Alabama Natural The measure deals Amendment 5 referred Assets and Resources with transferring constitutional Liabilities the assets and amendment Transfer liabilities of the Amendment Water Works and Sewer Board of the City of Prichard to the Board of Water and Sewer Commissioners of the City of Mobile. Statewide HB 60 Legislatively- Alabama Health The measure Amendment 6 referred Health Care Care would prohibit constitutional Amendment mandatory amendment participation in any health care system. Statewide HB 64 Legislatively- Alabama Labor The measure Amendment 7 referred Secret Ballot would guarantee constitutional Amendment the right to a amendment secret ballot in votes of employee representation. Statewide HB 276 Legislatively- Alabama Legislatur The measure Amendment 8 referred Legislative es would provide that constitutional Compensatio the compensation amendment n paid to legislators Amendment does not increase during term of office. Compensation, according to the proposal, includes pay, travel allowance, expense allowance and per diem. The measure's text also includes a requirement of a recorded vote by members of the legislature on each proposed bill that would increase compensation. Statewide HB 357 Legislatively- Alabama Taxes The measure Amendment 9 referred Business would allow the constitutional Privilege Tax state legislature to amendment Amendment implement a business privilege tax on corporations among other provisions. Statewide HB 358 Legislatively- Alabama Banking The measure Amendment 10 referred Banking relates to the constitutional Amendment authority of state amendment legislature and banking in the state. ALASKA Primary Ballot Indirect initiated Increasing Property This bill would Measure 1 state statute the Tax allow a city or (for 8/28/12 Maximum borough to raise Ballot) Residential the property tax Property Tax exemption on a Exemption residence from $20,000 to at most $50,000. This kind of tax exemption must be put to a vote and approved at a local election. The bill also allows a city or borough to pass a law to adjust this exemption to reflect a raise in the cost of living. Primary Ballot Indirect initiated An Act Coastal This bill would Measure 2 state statute establishing Managem create the Alaska (for 8/28/12 the Alaska ent Coastal Ballot) Coastal Management Management Program in the Program Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development to develop new state and local standards to review projects in coastal areas of the State. Ballot Measure 1 Automatic Constitutiona Constituti The measure Ballot Referral l Convention onal would create a Question Amendm convention to ents revise, alter or amend the state constitution. Bonding Legislatively- General Obligatio Shall the state of Proposition A referred state obligation n Bonds Alaska issue its statute bonds for the general obligation purpose of bond in the transportatio principle amount n projects. of not more than $453,499,200 for the purpose of paying the cost of state transportation projects? ARIZONA Proposition 114 SCR Legislatively- Crime Victim Liability The concurrent 1020 referred Protection Protectio resolution constitutional From Liability n proposes an amendment For Damages amendment to the constitution of Arizona relating to crime victim protection from liability for damages. Proposition 115 SCR Legislatively- The Judicial Judiciary The concurrent 1001 referred Department resolution constitutional proposes an amendment amendment to the constitution of Arizona relating to the judicial department. Proposition 116 SCR Legislatively- Property Tax Property The concurrent 1012 referred Exemptions Tax resolution constitutional proposes an amendment amendment to the constitution of Arizona relating to property tax exemptions. Proposition 117 SCR Legislatively- Property Tax Property The concurrent 1025 referred Assessed Tax resolution constitutional Valuation proposes an amendment amendment to the constitution of Arizona relating to property tax assessed valuation. Proposition 118 HCR Legislatively- Establishmen Budgets The measure 2056 referred t Of would amend the constitutional Permanent constitution of amendment Funds Arizona to mandate that the annual distribution from the permanent fund be 2.5 percent of the average monthly market values of the fund for the immediately preceding five calendar years.
Proposition 119 SCR Legislatively- State Trust Property The measure 1001 referred Lands would amend the constitutional constitution of amendment Arizona to authorize the Arizona legislature to enact a process to exchange trust land if the exchange is related to protecting military installations and managing lands. Proposition 120 HCR Legislatively- State The concurrent 2004 referred Sovereignty resolution constitutional proposes an amendment amendment to the constitution of Arizona relating to state sovereignty. ARKANSAS Issue 1 HJR Legislatively- Arkansas Bond The amendment 1001 referred Highway Issues would provide constitutional Financing Act additional funding amendment of 2011 for state highways, county roads, city streets, bridges, and other surface transportation.
TBD3 Legislative Issuance of Transport The measure Referendum State of ation would authorize Arkansas Funding the State Highway Federal Commission to Highway issue bonds if the Grant total principal Anticipation amount and Tax outstanding from Revenue the issuance of the Bonds bonds, together with the total principal amount outstanding from the issuance of bonds does not, at any time, exceed $1,100,000,000. CALIFORNIA Issue 2 SJR 5 Legislatively- Arkansas Taxes An amendment referred Sales Tax concerning constitutional Increase municipal and amendment Amendment county financing of (2012) sales tax anticipated revenue bond projects, unfunded liabilities of closed local police and fire pension plans, and real and tangible personal property. CA SBx7 Legislatively- Safe, Clean, Bonds The measure 2 referred bond and Reliable would approve the act Drinking water bond to Water Supply allow the state Act of 2012. government to borrow $11.1 billion to overhaul the state's water system.
1487 (11-0010) Initiated state California Labor The measure statute "Paycheck would prohibit the Protection" government from Initiative automatically deducting union dues from paychecks, 1495 (11-0013) Initiated state Automobile Insurance Car insurance statute Insurance rates can be based Prices Based on a person's on History of history of Insurance insurance Coverage Act coverage. 1499 (11-0028) Veto Referendum Redistricti The measure Referendum on the State ng would nullify the Senate California State Redistricting Senate Plan redistricting plan approved by the California Citizens Redistricting Commission
1512 (11-0035) Initiated state End the Death The initiative statute Death Penalty would end the Penalty death penalty in Initiative California. 1530 (11-0057) Initiated state California Law The measure statute "Three Enforcem would modify Strikes ent elements of Reform" California's "Three Initiative Strikes" Law, approved by the state's voters in 1994. 1532 (11-0059) Initiated state Californians Law The measure statute Against Enforcem would prohibit Sexual ent human trafficking Exploitation Act 1550 (11-0080) Initiated state Tax Clean The measure statute Treatment Energy would require for Funding multistate Multistate businesses to Businesses. calculate their Clean Energy California income and Energy tax liability based Efficiency on the percentage Funding. of their sales in Initiative California. It would Statute. repeal existing law giving multistate businesses an option to choose a tax liability formula that provides favorable tax treatment for businesses with property and payroll outside California. It would dedicate $550 million annually for five years from anticipated increase in revenue for the purpose of funding projects that create energy efficiency and clean energy jobs in California. 1570 (11-0099) Initiated state California Food The measure statute Right to Regulatio would require Know About n labeling on raw or Genetically processed food Engineered offered for sale to Food consumers if the Initiative food is made from plants or animals with genetic material changed in specified ways. 1574 (11-0100) Initiated state Tax for Education The measure statute Education Funding would increase and Early personal income Childhood tax rates for Programs. annual earnings Initiative over $7,316 using Statute. sliding scale from 0.4% for lowest individual earners to 2.2% for individuals earning over $2.5 million, ending after twelve years. During first four years, 60% of revenues go to K- 12 schools, 30% to repaying state debt, and 10% to early childhood programs. Thereafter, it would allocate 85% of revenues to K-12 schools, 15% to early childhood programs. It would also provide K-12 funds on school specific, per-pupil basis, subject to local control, audits, and public input And prohibit the state from directing or using new funds.
1578 (12-0009) Initiated state Temporary Taxes/ The measure statute Taxes to Education would increase Fund personal income Education. tax on annual Guaranteed earnings over Local Public $250,000 for Safety seven years and Funding. increases sales and use tax by ¼ cent for four years. It would allocate temporary tax revenues 89% to K-12 schools and 11% to community colleges. It would bar the use of funds for administrative costs, but would provide local school governing boards discretion to decide, in open meetings and subject to annual audit, how funds are to be spent. It would also guarantee funding for public safety services realigned from state to local governments. COLORADO Amendment 64 Legislative Use and Drug/ The measure Referendum Regulation of Alcohol/ would legalize Marijuana Tobacco recreational use of Policy marijuana with regulations. CONNECTICUT NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 FLORIDA Amendment 1 CS/SJR Legislatively Health Care Health The measure 2 Referred Services Care would prevent Constitutional penalties for not Amendment purchasing health care coverage in order to comply with federal health care reforms. Amendment 2 CS/SJR Legislatively Veterans Taxes The measure 592 Referred Disabled Due would amend the Constitutional to Combat constitution to Amendment Injury; allow partially or Homestead totally disabled Property Tax veterans who Discount were not Florida residents at the time of entering military service to qualify for the combat-related disabled veterans' ad valorem tax discount on homestead property.
Amendment 3 CS/SJR Legislatively State State The measure 958 Referred Government Budgets would amend the Constitutional Revenue State Constitution Amendment Limitation to replace the existing state revenue limitation based on Florida personal income growth with a new state revenue limitation based on inflation and population changes. State revenues, as defined in the amendment, collected in excess of the revenue limitation would be required to be deposited into the budget stabilization fund until the fund reaches its maximum balance, and thereafter used for the support and maintenance of public schools by reducing the minimum financial effort required from school districts for participation in a state-funded education finance program, or, if the minimum financial effort is no longer required, returned to the taxpayers. The Legislature may increase the state revenue limitation through a bill approved by a super majority vote of each house of the Legislature. The Legislature may also submit a proposed increase in the state revenue limitation to the voters. The Legislature must implement this proposed amendment by general law. The amendment would take effect upon approval by the electors and will first apply to the 2014-2015 state fiscal year.
Amendment 4 CS/HJR Legislatively Property Tax Taxes This would amend 381 Referred Limitations; Florida Constitutional Property Constitution Amendment Value Article VII, Section Decline; 4 (Taxation; Reduction for assessments) and Non- Section 6 homestead (Homestead Assessment exemptions). It Increases; also would amend Delay of Article XII, Section Scheduled 27, and add Repeal Sections 32 and 33, relating to the Schedule for the amendments. Amendment 5 CS/HJR Legislatively State Courts Judicial The State 7111 Referred Reform Constitution Constitutional authorizes the Amendment Supreme Court to adopt rules for the practice and procedure in all courts. The constitution further provides that a rule of court may be repealed by a general law enacted by a two- thirds vote of the membership of each house of the Legislature. This constitutional revision would eliminate the requirement that a general law repealing a court rule pass by a two- thirds vote of each house, thereby providing that the Legislature may repeal a rule of court by a general law approved by a majority vote of each house of the Legislature that expresses the policy behind the repeal.
Amendment 6 CS/HJR Legislatively Prohibition Abortion This proposed 1179 Referred on Public amendment Constitutional Funding of provides that Amendment Abortions; public funds may Construction not be expended of Abortion for any abortion or Rights for health-benefits coverage that includes coverage of abortion. This prohibition does not apply to an expenditure required by federal law, a case in which a woman suffers from a physical disorder, physical injury, or physical illness that would place her in danger of death unless an abortion is performed, or a case of rape or incest. This proposed amendment provides that the State Constitution may not be interpreted to create broader rights to an abortion than those contained in the United States Constitution. With respect to abortion, this proposed amendment overrules court decisions, which conclude that the right of privacy under Article I, Section 23 of the State Constitution is broader in scope than that of the United States Constitution. Amendment 8 CS/HJR Legislatively Religious Religion The amendment 1471 Referred Freedom would provide that Constitutional no individual or Amendment entity may be denied, on the basis of religious identity or belief, governmental benefits, funding or other support, except as required by the First Amendment to the United States Constitution, and would delete the prohibition against using revenues from the public treasury directly or indirectly in aid of any church, sect, or religious denomination or in aid of any sectarian institution. Amendment 9 CS/HJR Legislatively Homestead Taxes The amendment 93 Referred Property Tax to the State Constitutional Exemption Constitution would Amendment for Surviving authorize the Spouse of Legislature to Military provide by general Veteran or law ad valorem First homestead Responder property tax relief to the surviving spouse of a military veteran who died from service- connected causes while on active duty or to the surviving spouse of a first responder who died in the line of duty. The amendment would authorize the Legislature to totally exempt or partially exempt such surviving spouse's homestead property from ad valorem taxation. The amendment defines a first responder as a law enforcement officer, a correctional officer, a firefighter, an emergency medical technician, or a paramedic. This amendment would take effect January 1, 2013. Amendment 10 CS/HJR Legislatively Tangible Taxes The amendment 1003 Referred Personal would provide an Constitutional Property Tax exemption from Amendment Exemption ad valorem taxes levied by counties, municipalities, school districts, and other local governments on tangible personal property if the assessed value of an owner's tangible personal property is greater than $25,000 but less than $50,000. Amendment 11 CS/HJR Legislatively Additional Taxes The amendment 0169 Referred Homestead would authorize Constitutional Exemption; the Legislature, by Amendment Low-Income general law and Seniors Who subject to Maintain conditions set Long-Term forth in the Residency on general law, to Property; allow counties and Equal to municipalities to Assessed grant an additional Value homestead tax exemption equal to the assessed value of homestead property if the property has a just value less than $250,000 to an owner who has maintained permanent residency on the property for not less than 25 years, who has attained age 65, and who has a low household income as defined by general law. Amendment 12 CS/HJR Legislatively Appointment Governm The amendment 0931 Referred of Student ent would replace the Constitutional Body Administr president of the Amendment President to ation Florida Student Board of Association with Governors of the chair of the the State council of state University university student System body presidents as the student member of the Board of Governors of the State University System and require that the Board of Governors organize such council of state university student body presidents
GEORGIA TBD1 HB 277 Legislative Transportatio Transport The measure (2010) Referendum n Investment ation would Authorize a Act of 2010 Funding regional transportation sales tax for a period of up to ten years if approved by voters in 12 Regional Commission areas of the state. TBD2 HR Legislative Permit State Education The measure 1162 Referendum to Create would amend the (2012) Public Constitution of Charter Georgia so as to Schools clarify the authority of the state to establish state-wide education policy; to restate the authority of the General Assembly to create special schools; and to delineate types of schools that the General Assembly may authorize and clarify funding authority; to provide for the submission of this amendment for ratification or rejection; and for other purposes. HAWAII NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 IDAHO HJR 2 Legislative Rights to Animal The measure Referendum Hunt, Fish Rights/Hu proposes a new and Trap nting & section to the Fishing Constitution of the State of Idaho to provide that the rights to hunt, fish and trap, including by the use of traditional methods, are a valued part of the heritage of the State of Idaho and shall forever be preserved for the people and managed through the laws, rules and proclamations that preserve the future of hunting, fishing and trapping; to provide that public hunting, fishing and trapping of wildlife shall be a preferred means of managing wildlife; and to provide that the rights set forth do not create a right to trespass on private property, shall not affect rights to divert, appropriate and use water, or establish any minimum amount of water in any water body, shall not lead to a diminution of other private rights and shall not prevent the suspension or revocation, pursuant to statute enacted by the Legislature, of an individual's hunting, fishing or trapping license. SJR 102 Legislative Control Over Criminal The measure Referendum State Prisons Justice would amend the Constitution of the state of Idaho, relating to the control over state prisons; to provide that the State Board of Correction shall have the control, direction and management of adult felony probation and parole.
Proposition 1 SB Popular Referendum Education The measure 1108 Referendum to Approve , Labor would revise or Reject written evaluation Legislation process; Limiting renewable Negotiated individual Agreements contacts; formal Between review of Teachers and employment Local School decisions; contract Boards and terms; salaries; Ending the professional Practice of liability insurance; Issuing early retirement Renewable incentives; scope Contracts & duration of negotiated agreements; fact finding. Proposition 2 SB Popular Referendum Education The measure 1110 Referendum to Approve , Labor would provide or Reject provisions relating Legislation to a pay for Providing performance Teacher system. Performance Pay Based on State- Mandated Test Scores, Student Performance, Hard-to-Fill Positions and Leadership Proposition 3 SB Popular Referendum Education The measure 1184 Referendum to Approve would modernize or Reject and reform the Legislation educational Amending system. School District Funding, Requiring Provision of Computing Devices and Online Courses for High School Graduation ILLINOIS HJRCA Legislatively- Illinois Public Pensions The measure 49 referred Pension would require a Constitutional Amendment three-fifths Amendment approval by the General Assembly, city councils, and school districts that wish to increase the pension benefits of their employees. INDIANA NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 IOWA NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 KANSAS NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 KENTUCKY TBD1 HB 1 Legislatively- Kentucky Hunting The measure (2011) referred Hunting and would protect the Constitutional Fishing right of residents Amendment Amendment to hunt and fish in the state. LOUISIANA SB 82 Legislatively- Louisiana Health The measure referred Medicaid Care would protect the Constitutional Trust Fund state Medicaid Amendment Amendment trust fund from budget cuts. SB 303 Legislatively- Louisiana Firearms This measure referred Right to Bear would fortify Constitutional Arms existing gun rights Amendment Amendment in the state. The amendment would add the rights to acquire, transport, carry, transfer, and use firearms in addition to the existing right to keep and bear them. HB 9 Legislatively- Louisiana Law The measure referred Retirement would allow the Constitutional Benefits legislature to deny Amendment Amendment retirement benefits to any public employee or official who commits a felony related to their office. HB 292 Legislatively- Louisiana Term The measure referred School Board Limits would require Constitutional Term Limit school districts to Amendment Elections hold local option Amendment elections on term limits for school board members. HB 497 Legislatively- Louisiana Taxes The measure referred New Iberia would authorize Constitutional Property Tax the city of New Amendment Exemption Iberia to grant Amendment contracts for the exemption of property annexed by the city. HB 674 Legislatively- Louisiana Taxes The measure referred Business would allow local Constitutional Property Tax governments to Amendment Exemption opt-in to property Amendment tax exemptions for non- manufacturing businesses that meet certain criteria. MAINE TBD5 Indirect initiated Maine Same- Same-Sex The measure state statute Sex Marriage Marriage would overturn a Question voter-approved 2009 ballot measure that banned same-sex marriage in the state. LD 359 Legislatively- An Act To Bond Do you favor a referred Authorize a Issues $7,925,000 bond Constitutional General Fund issue to be Amendment Bond Issue expended over 2 for years for revolving Wastewater loan funds for and Drinking drinking water Water systems and for Revolving wastewater Loan Funds treatment facilities, which will make the State eligible to secure $39,625,000 in federal grants? LD 852 Legislatively- An Act To Bond Do you favor a referred Authorize a Issues $5,000,000 bond Constitutional General Fund issue to purchase Amendment Bond Issue land and To Support conservation Maine's easements Natural statewide from Resource- willing sellers for based public land and Economy water access, conservation, wildlife or fish habitat and outdoor recreation, including hunting and fishing and deer wintering areas, and to preserve working farmland and working waterfronts to be matched by at least $5,000,000 in private and public contributions? LD 874 Legislatively- Maine Bond The measure referred Community Issues would allow for an Constitutional College Bond $11 million bond Amendment Question for higher education in order to expand the state's community college system. LD 894 Legislatively- Maine Bond The measure referred Transportatio Issues would allow for a Constitutional n Bond $51 million Amendment Question transportation bond, most of it to pay for road and bridge repairs in the state. MARYLAND SB 48 Legislatively- Maryland Judicial The proposed referred Orphans' Reform measure would Constitutional Court Judge require judges of Amendment Qualification the Orphans' Court s for Baltimore Amendment, County to have Prince been admitted to George's practice law in County Maryland and be in good standing with the Maryland Bar. SB 167 Veto Maryland In- Education The proposed Referendum State Tuition measure calls for Referendum overturning legislation that guarantees in- state tuition to undocumented immigrants.
SB 281 Legislatively- Maryland Judicial The proposed referred Orphans' Reform measure would Constitutional Court Judge require judges of Amendment Qualification the Orphans' Court s for Prince George's Amendment, County to have Prince been admitted to George's practice law in County Maryland and be in good standing with the Maryland Bar. HB 211 Legislatively- Maryland Law The proposed referred Elected measure would Constitutional Officials provide conditions Amendment Removal under which an from Office elected official Amendment convicted of a felony or certain misdemeanors will be removed from office. MASSACHUSETTS NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 MICHIGAN NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 MINNESOTA SF 1308 Legislatively Marriage Marriage The measure Referred Amendment would recognize Constitutional marriage as a Amendment union between one man and one woman. HF Legislatively Voter Elections The measure 1597 Referred Identification would require Constitutional Amendment people to present Amendment photo identification to vote. MISSISSIPPI NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 MISSOURI Constitutional Legislatively- Religious Civil & Shall the Missouri Amendment 2 referred Freedom in Constituti Constitution be (for 8/7/12 Constitutional Public Places onal Law amended to Primary Ballot) Amendment ensure: - That the right of Missouri citizens to express their religious beliefs shall not be infringed; - That schoolchildren have the right to pray and acknowledge God voluntarily in their schools; and - That all public schools shall display the Bill of Rights of the United States Constitution. SJR 51 Legislatively- Missouri State The amendment referred Judicial Judiciary would grant the Constitutional Appointment governor the Amendment Amendment power to appoint four persons to the Appellate Judicial Commission, the body responsible for choosing nominees for the Court of Appeals and the Missouri Supreme Court. MONTANA LR-120 HB 627 Legislative Relating to Abortion The measure Referendum parental would require involvement parental for a minor’s notification prior abortion. to abortion for a minor, provide for judicial waiver of notification, repeal prior statutes, and provide penalties.
LR-121 HB 638 Legislative Referendum Immigrati The measure Referendum to require on would require proof of proof of citizenship to citizenship to receive state receive state service service LR-122 SB 418 Legislative Referendum Health The measure Referendum to prohibit Insurance would prohibit the health state or federal insurance government from purchase mandating the requirement purchase of health insurance or imposing penalties for decisions related to purchasing health insurance. LR-123 SB 426 Legislative Referendum Income The measure Referendum for Tax Credit would contingent contingently property and provide taxpayers income tax refunds of surplus reductions state government based on general fund surplus balance through an income tax credit based upon property and individual income taxes paid. CI-107 Constitutional Amend the Criminal The measure amendment by Montana Procedur would amend the initiative Constitution es Montana to allow a Constitution to person allow a person accused of a accused of a crime crime to to argue to the argue to the jury the propriety, jury the applicability, and merits of the merits of the law law. that the person is accused of violating. It also would require the judge to instruct the jury that it can decide the propriety, applicability, and merits of the law that the person on trial is accused of violating. CI-108 Constitutional Amend the Abortion The measure amendment by Montana would Montana initiative Constitution’ Constitution’s due s due process process section to section to define “person” to define include all human “person” to beings, at every include all stage of human development, beings, at including every stage fertilization and of conception. development , including fertilization and conception. CI-109 Constitutional Reserve to Laws by The measure amendment by the people Initiative would amend initiative the power to Article III, Section amend or 4, of the Montana repeal laws Constitution to passed by provide that the initiative. people reserve to themselves the power to repeal or amend all laws passed by initiative. CI-110 Constitutional Establish a Marijuan The measure amendment by right for a would amend initiative adults to Article II, Section marijuana 14, of the subject to Montana reasonable Constitution to state law establish that limitations. “adults have the right to responsibly purchase, consume, produce, and possess marijuana, subject to reasonable limitations, regulations, and taxation. Except for actions that endanger minors, children, or public safety, no criminal offense or penalty of this state shall apply to such activities.” IR-124 Initiative Refer SB 423 Medical In 2004, Montana Referendum to the voters Marijuan voters approved I- of Montana a 148, creating a medical marijuana program for patients with debilitating medical conditions. This measure repeals I- 148 and enacts a new medical marijuana program. IR-125 Initiative Refer HB 198 Eminent House Bill 198, Referendum to the voters Domain enacted in 2011, of Montana states that (1) public utilities and (2) persons or entities issued a certificate under state law to construct certain energy infrastructure facilities, are authorized to take private property for public use by eminent domain. Under HB 198, entities issued a certificate after September 30, 2008, may exercise eminent domain. I-166 Statutory Charge Campaign This initiative initiative Montana Finance would establish a elected and state policy that appointed corporations are officials, not entitled to state and constitutional federal, with rights because implementin they are not g a policy human beings, and that charge Montana corporations elected and are not appointed officials, human state and federal, beings with to implement that constitutiona policy. With this l rights. policy, the people of Montana establish that there should be a level playing field in campaign spending, in part by prohibiting corporate campaign contributions and expenditures and by limiting political spending in elections. NEBRASKA LR Legislatively Nebraska Term The measure 19CA referred Grounds for Limits would make any constitutional Impeachmen misdemeanor amendment t while in pursuit of Amendment office grounds for impeachment of a civil officer. LR Legislatively Nebraska Hunting The measure 40CA referred Hunting and would protect the constitutional Fishing right of residents amendment Amendment to hunt and fish in the state. LR Legislatively Nebraska Term The measure 358CA referred Term Limits Limits would allow constitutional Amendment legislators to hold amendment three consecutive terms instead of two.
LR Legislatively Nebraska Legislativ The measure 373CA referred Legislative e Salaries would raise constitutional Salary lawmaker salaries amendment Amendment to $32,000 a year.
NEVADA Initiative The Right to The initiative Petitions to Live for proposes to Amend the Young and amend the Nevada Nevada State Old Alike Constitution by Constitution adding the following language: “No person shall be deprived of life, liberty, or property without due process of law.” As used in this section, the word “person” includes every human being from the beginning of biological development until death.
Initiative The The initiative Petitions to Education proposes to Propose a New Initiative amend Title 32 of Statute or to the Nevada Amend an Revised Statutes Existing Statute to impose a new margin tax on the taxable margin of specified business entities in the state. The proceeds of the tax, less administrative costs incurred by the Department of Taxation, would be deposited in the State Distributive School Account. The initiative would require that appropriations be made from the State General Fund to the Department of Taxation for the initial costs of administering the margin tax. The Initiative also proposes a temporary increase in the rate of the Modified Business Tax on Financial Institutions, with the revenue raised from this increase to support the appropriations made to the Department. NEW HAMPSHIRE CACR13 Legislative Prohibiting a Tax & The measure Referendum Personal Revenue would provide that Income Tax no assessment, rate, or tax on income earned by a natural person shall be levied by the state of New Hampshire except taxes in effect on January 1, 2012 and adjustments to the rate of such taxes. (requires a 2/3 vote to pass) CC Automatic New Governm The measure Ballot Referral Hampshire ent would create a Constitutiona Administr convention to l Convention ation revise, alter, or Question amend the state constitution. Part 2, Article 100 of the New Hampshire Constitution calls for a question about whether to have a convention to appear on the ballot every ten years. NEW JERSEY NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 NEW MEXICO HJR 11 Legislatively Commissione State The measure referred r Executive would raise the constitutional Qualification Officials qualifications amendment s required to be Amendment public regulation commissioner. HJR 16 Legislatively Corporations Governm The measure referred Chartering ent would remove the constitutional Amendment Administr chartering of amendment ation corporations from the PRC to the secretary of state. HJR 17 Legislatively Insurance Governm The measure referred Division ent would remove constitutional Amendment Administr insurance division amendment ation from PRC.
HJR 18 Legislatively New Mexico Judicial The measure referred Judicial Reform would add two constitutional Standards members to the amendment Amendment Judicial Standards Commission. HJR 27 Legislatively New Mexico Governm The measure referred Public ent would make the constitutional Defender Administr office separate amendment Office ation from the state Amendment government. NEW YORK NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 NORTH CAROLINA NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 NORTH DAKOTA Measure 1 SCR Legislatively North Dakota Governm The measure 4006 referred Poll Tax ent would revoke the constitutional Amendment Administr authority for the amendment ation poll tax and remove the offensive language Measure 2 HCR Legislatively North Dakota Governm The measure 3009 referred Oaths of ent would require the constitutional Office Administr governor and amendment Amendment ation other executive officials to take an oath of office OHIO Constitutional Automatic ballot Constitutiona Constituti The measure Convention referral l Convention onal would create a Question Question Conventio convention to n revise, alter or amend the state constitution. Section 3 of Article XVI calls for a question about whether to have a convention to appear on the ballot in 1932 and every twenty years thereafter. OKLAHOMA State Question HJR Legislative Taxes This measure No. 758 1002 Referendum would amends the No. 358 State Constitution to change the limits on increases in fair cash value to 5% and change the cap on increases to 3% for homestead exempted property and agricultural land. State Questions SJR 15 Legislative Public The measure No. 759 Referendum Employm would prohibit No. 359 ent certain preferential treatment or discrimination based on race or sex in public employment, education or contracts.
State Question SJR 25 Legislative Governm The measure No. 762 Referendum ent would modify the No. 360 Administr power and ation authority of the Governor and Pardon and Parole Board in the parole process for nonviolent offenders.
State Question HJR Legislative The measure No. 764 1085 Referendum would create the No. 361 Water Infrastructure Credit Enhancement Reserve Fund; and allow the OWRB to issue bonds. State Question HJR Legislative The measure No. 765 1092 Referendum would repeal No. 362 sections of the constitution relating to the Department of Public Welfare, its commission and director; and grant the Legislature the authority to create and direct the administration of a department to provide for public welfare State Question SJR 52 Legislative The measure No. 766 Referendum would exempt all No. 363 intangible personal property from ad valorem taxation OREGON NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 PENNSYLVANIA NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 RHODE ISLAND S 2695 Legislatively Rhode Island Gambling The measure Referred Newport would authorize Constitutional Grand Casino casino games at Amendment Amendment Newport Grand. H 5894 Legislatively Casino Gambling The measure Referred Gambling would ask voters if Constitutional Amendment they want state- Amendment operated casino gambling at the Twin River slot venue. SOUTH CAROLINA H 3152 Legislatively- Joint Election Elections The measure referred of Governor would amend the Constitutional and Constitution to Amendment Lieutenant provide that the Governor Lieutenant Governor must be elected jointly with the Governor, beginning with the general election of 2018.
SOUTH DAKOTA Constitutional HJR Legislatively- South Dakota Language The measure Amendment M 1001 referred Corporate would modernize Constitutional Language language dealing Amendment Amendment with corporations.
Constitutional HJR Legislatively- South Dakota Governm The measure Amendment N 1002 referred Legislative ent would strike from Constitutional Travel Administr the state Amendment Reimbursem ation constitution a ent provision that Amendment reimburses state lawmakers 5 cents a mile for their first and last trips to and from the legislative session. Constitutional HJR Legislatively- South State The measure Amendment O 1006 referred Dakota Budgets would change how Constitutional Cement- much money is Amendment Plant taken from the Amendment state’s cement- plant trust fund each year. Constitutional HJR Legislatively- South Dakota State The measure Amendment P 1007 referred Budget Budget would make clear Constitutional Balance in the South Amendment Amendment Dakota Constitution that the state budget must be balanced. Referred Law 14 HB Veto South Dakota Taxes The measure 1230 Referendum Tax Revenues would repeal a law (2011) for Grants that would Veto dedicate part of Referendum tax revenues for grants to some business projects in the state. Initiated Measure Initiated State South Dakota Taxes The measure 15 Statute Sales Tax would implement Increase a 1% sales tax Measure increase, from 4 to 5%, that would begin in 2013. Specifically, the measure would take 20% of the revenue and place it in the South Dakota Moving Forward Fund.
TENNESSEE NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 TEXAS NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 UTAH NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 VERMONT NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 VIRGINIA SJ 3 Legislatively- Virginia Eminent The measure referred Eminent Domain would limit constitutional Domain instances when amendment Amendment private property could be taken for public use. WASHINGTON Initiative 502 Initiative to the Washington Marijuan The proposed Legislature. Marijuana a measure would Legalization legalize the and production, Regulation, possession, Initiative 502 delivery and distribution of marijuana. The initiative would regulate the sale of small amounts of marijuana to people 21 and older. R-74 Veto Washington Same-Sex The proposed Referendum Same-Sex Marriage measure asks Marriage voters if same-sex Veto marriage should Referendum, be legalized in the Referendum state of 74 Washington. WEST VIRGINIA Senate Legislatively- West Virginia Governm The measure Joint referred County ent proposes ending Resolut constitutional Sheriff Term Administr end term limits for ion 10 amendment Limit ation county sheriffs. Amendment Currently, sheriffs are limited two consecutive terms.
WISCONSIN NO BALLOT MEASURES FOR NOVEMBER, 2012 WYOMING Amendment A Senate Legislatively- Wyoming HealthCar The measure Joint referred Health Care e would amend the Resolut constitutional Amendment state constitution ion 2 amendment regarding the federal Affordable Health Care Act. Amendment B Senate Legislatively- Wyoming Hunting The measure Joint referred Hunting would preserve Resolut constitutional Rights citizens' rights to ion 1 amendment Amendment hunt and fish. Amendment C HJ 0001 Legislatively- Wyoming Judicial The measure referred District Court Reform would allow constitutional Commissione district court amendment rs commissioners to Amendment act even if the district court judge is present and even if the district court judge could properly hear the case.
Sources, accessed as of June 26, 2012: Various state Secretary of State and government election sites; the National Conference of State Legislatures, State Ballot Measures Database at: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures- elections/elections/ballot-measures-database.aspx; Ballotpedia, Ballot Measures at: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Portal:Ballot_measures.
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Washington D.C. and state governments can be confusing. Seemingly unrelated political and policy issues cloud the legislative calendar, and conflicting expert opinions mask emerging trends. As a result, it is difficult to separate the substance from the rhetoric to accurately forecast funding levels or legislative and policy outcomes. The current education policy environment exemplifies this phenomenon.
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