Coordination and Higher Order Uncertainty
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The Determinants of Efficient Behavior in Coordination Games
The Determinants of Efficient Behavior in Coordination Games Pedro Dal B´o Guillaume R. Fr´echette Jeongbin Kim* Brown University & NBER New York University Caltech May 20, 2020 Abstract We study the determinants of efficient behavior in stag hunt games (2x2 symmetric coordination games with Pareto ranked equilibria) using both data from eight previous experiments on stag hunt games and data from a new experiment which allows for a more systematic variation of parameters. In line with the previous experimental literature, we find that subjects do not necessarily play the efficient action (stag). While the rate of stag is greater when stag is risk dominant, we find that the equilibrium selection criterion of risk dominance is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for a majority of subjects to choose the efficient action. We do find that an increase in the size of the basin of attraction of stag results in an increase in efficient behavior. We show that the results are robust to controlling for risk preferences. JEL codes: C9, D7. Keywords: Coordination games, strategic uncertainty, equilibrium selection. *We thank all the authors who made available the data that we use from previous articles, Hui Wen Ng for her assistance running experiments and Anna Aizer for useful comments. 1 1 Introduction The study of coordination games has a long history as many situations of interest present a coordination component: for example, the choice of technologies that require a threshold number of users to be sustainable, currency attacks, bank runs, asset price bubbles, cooper- ation in repeated games, etc. In such examples, agents may face strategic uncertainty; that is, they may be uncertain about how the other agents will respond to the multiplicity of equilibria, even when they have complete information about the environment. -
Prophylaxy Copie.Pdf
Social interactions and the prophylaxis of SI epidemics on networks Géraldine Bouveret, Antoine Mandel To cite this version: Géraldine Bouveret, Antoine Mandel. Social interactions and the prophylaxis of SI epi- demics on networks. Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, 2021, 93, pp.102486. 10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102486. halshs-03165772 HAL Id: halshs-03165772 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-03165772 Submitted on 17 Mar 2021 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Social interactions and the prophylaxis of SI epidemics on networkssa G´eraldineBouveretb Antoine Mandel c March 17, 2021 Abstract We investigate the containment of epidemic spreading in networks from a nor- mative point of view. We consider a susceptible/infected model in which agents can invest in order to reduce the contagiousness of network links. In this setting, we study the relationships between social efficiency, individual behaviours and network structure. First, we characterise individual and socially efficient behaviour using the notions of communicability and exponential centrality. Second, we show, by computing the Price of Anarchy, that the level of inefficiency can scale up to lin- early with the number of agents. -
Muddling Through: Noisy Equilibrium Selection*
Journal of Economic Theory ET2255 journal of economic theory 74, 235265 (1997) article no. ET962255 Muddling Through: Noisy Equilibrium Selection* Ken Binmore Department of Economics, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, England and Larry Samuelson Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 Received March 7, 1994; revised August 4, 1996 This paper examines an evolutionary model in which the primary source of ``noise'' that moves the model between equilibria is not arbitrarily improbable mutations but mistakes in learning. We model strategy selection as a birthdeath process, allowing us to find a simple, closed-form solution for the stationary distribution. We examine equilibrium selection by considering the limiting case as the population gets large, eliminating aggregate noise. Conditions are established under which the risk-dominant equilibrium in a 2_2 game is selected by the model as well as conditions under which the payoff-dominant equilibrium is selected. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers C70, C72. 1997 Academic Press Commonsense is a method of arriving at workable conclusions from false premises by nonsensical reasoning. Schumpeter 1. INTRODUCTION Which equilibrium should be selected in a game with multiple equilibria? This paper pursues an evolutionary approach to equilibrium selection based on a model of the dynamic process by which players adjust their strategies. * First draft August 26, 1992. Financial support from the National Science Foundation, Grants SES-9122176 and SBR-9320678, the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Sonderfor- schungsbereich 303, and the British Economic and Social Research Council, Grant L122-25- 1003, is gratefully acknowledged. Part of this work was done while the authors were visiting the University of Bonn, for whose hospitality we are grateful. -
Collusion and Equilibrium Selection in Auctions∗
Collusion and equilibrium selection in auctions∗ By Anthony M. Kwasnica† and Katerina Sherstyuk‡ Abstract We study bidder collusion and test the power of payoff dominance as an equi- librium selection principle in experimental multi-object ascending auctions. In these institutions low-price collusive equilibria exist along with competitive payoff-inferior equilibria. Achieving payoff-superior collusive outcomes requires complex strategies that, depending on the environment, may involve signaling, market splitting, and bid rotation. We provide the first systematic evidence of successful bidder collusion in such complex environments without communication. The results demonstrate that in repeated settings bidders are often able to coordinate on payoff superior outcomes, with the choice of collusive strategies varying systematically with the environment. Key words: multi-object auctions; experiments; multiple equilibria; coordination; tacit collusion 1 Introduction Auctions for timber, automobiles, oil drilling rights, and spectrum bandwidth are just a few examples of markets where multiple heterogeneous lots are offered for sale simultane- ously. In multi-object ascending auctions, the applied issue of collusion and the theoretical issue of equilibrium selection are closely linked. In these auctions, bidders can profit by splitting the markets. By acting as local monopsonists for a disjoint subset of the objects, the bidders lower the price they must pay. As opposed to the sealed bid auction, the ascending auction format provides bidders with the -
Statistical GGP Game Decomposition Aline Hufschmitt, Jean-Noël Vittaut, Nicolas Jouandeau
Statistical GGP Game Decomposition Aline Hufschmitt, Jean-Noël Vittaut, Nicolas Jouandeau To cite this version: Aline Hufschmitt, Jean-Noël Vittaut, Nicolas Jouandeau. Statistical GGP Game Decomposition. Computer Games - 7th Workshop, CGW 2018, Held in Conjunction with the 27th International Con- ference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI 2018, Jul 2018, Stockholm, Sweden. pp.79-97, 10.1007/978- 3-030-24337-1_4. hal-02182443 HAL Id: hal-02182443 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02182443 Submitted on 15 Oct 2019 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. In Proceedings of the IJCAI-18 Workshop on Computer Games (CGW 2018) Statistical GGP Game Decomposition Aline Hufschmitt, Jean-No¨elVittaut, and Nicolas Jouandeau LIASD - University of Paris 8, France falinehuf,jnv,[email protected] Abstract. This paper presents a statistical approach for the decompo- sition of games in the General Game Playing framework. General game players can drastically decrease game search cost if they hold a decom- posed version of the game. Previous works on decomposition rely on syn- tactical structures, which can be missing from the game description, or on the disjunctive normal form of the rules, which is very costly to compute. -
Common Belief Foundations of Global Games∗
Common Belief Foundations of Global Games Stephen Morris Hyun Song Shin Muhamet Yildiz Princeton University Bank of International Settlements M.I.T. January 2015 Abstract Complete information games– i.e., games where there is common certainty of payoffs– often have multiple rationalizable actions. What happens if the common certainty of payoffs assumption is relaxed? Consider a two player game where a player’spayoff depends on a payoff parameter. Define a player’s"rank belief" as the probability he assigns to his payoff parameter being higher than his opponent’s. We show that there is a unique rationalizable action played when there is common certainty of rank beliefs, and we argue this is the driving force behind selection results in the global games literature. We consider what happens if players’payoff parameters are derived from common and idiosyncratic terms with fat tailed distributions, and we approach complete information by shrinking the distribution of both terms. There are two cases. If the common component has a thicker tails, then there is common certainty of rank beliefs, and thus uniqueness and equilibrium selection. If the idiosyncratic terms has thicker tails, then there is approximate common certainty of payoffs, and thus multiple rationalizable actions. 1 Introduction Complete information games often have many equilibria. Even when they have a single equilibrium, they often have many actions that are rationalizable, and are therefore consistent with common This paper incorporates material from a working paper of the same title circulated in 2009 (Morris and Shin (2009)). We are grateful for comments from seminar participants at Northwestern on this iteration of the project. -
Sensitivity of Equilibrium Behavior to Higher-Order Beliefs in Nice Games
Forthcoming in Games and Economic Behavior SENSITIVITY OF EQUILIBRIUM BEHAVIOR TO HIGHER-ORDER BELIEFS IN NICE GAMES JONATHAN WEINSTEIN AND MUHAMET YILDIZ Abstract. We consider “nice” games (where action spaces are compact in- tervals, utilities continuous and strictly concave in own action), which are used frequently in classical economic models. Without making any “richness” assump- tion, we characterize the sensitivity of any given Bayesian Nash equilibrium to higher-order beliefs. That is, for each type, we characterize the set of actions that can be played in equilibrium by some type whose lower-order beliefs are all as in the original type. We show that this set is given by a local version of interim correlated rationalizability. This allows us to characterize the robust predictions of a given model under arbitrary common knowledge restrictions. We apply our framework to a Cournot game with many players. There we show that we can never robustly rule out any production level below the monopoly production of each firm.Thisiseventrueifweassumecommonknowledgethat the payoffs are within an arbitrarily small neighborhood of a given value, and that the exact value is mutually known at an arbitrarily high order, and we fix any desired equilibrium. JEL Numbers: C72, C73. This paper is based on an earlier working paper, Weinstein and Yildiz (2004). We thank Daron Acemoglu, Pierpaolo Battigalli, Tilman Börgers, Glenn Ellison, Drew Fudenberg, Stephen Morris, an anonymous associate editor, two anonymous referees, and the seminar participants at various universities and conferences. We thank Institute for Advanced Study for their generous support and hospitality. Yildiz also thanks Princeton University and Cowles Foundation of Yale University for their generous support and hospitality. -
Essays on Supermodular Games, Design, and Political Theory
Selection, Learning, and Nomination: Essays on Supermodular Games, Design, and Political Theory Thesis by Laurent Mathevet In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California 2008 (Defended May 15th, 2008) ii c 2008 Laurent Mathevet All Rights Reserved iii For my parents, Denise and Ren´eMathevet iv Acknowledgements Many people have helped me along the way. Christelle has been a source of happiness, and without her uncompromising support and faith in me, I would have been miserable. My parents, to whom this dissertation is dedicated, have shown continual and unconditional support despite the distance. They are a constant source of inspiration. I also wish to thank my advisors, Federico Echenique and Matthew Jackson, for their help and encouragement. Federico has spent numerous hours advising me, meeting with me nearly every week since my second year as a graduate student. He has endeavored to extract the most out of me, discarding unpromising thoughts and results, reading my drafts countless times and demanding (countless!) rewrites. Most importantly, he found the right words in those difficult times of a PhD graduate student. Matt has also been a wonderful advisor, available, demanding, and encouraging. I have benefited greatly from his comments, which are the kind that shapes the core of a research project. Matt has funded me for several years, which allowed me to concentrate on research. I also thank him for his invitation to spend a term at Stanford to further my research. I am indebted to Preston McAfee, whose personality, charisma, and sharpness have made meetings with him among the most fruitful and enjoyable. -
Game Theory for Signal Processing in Networks
Game Theory for Signal Processing in Networks Giacomo Bacci, Samson Lasaulce, Walid Saad, and Luca Sanguinetti Abstract In this tutorial, the basics of game theory are introduced along with an overview of its most recent and emerging applications in signal processing. One of the main features of this contribution is to gather in a single paper some fundamental game-theoretic notions and tools which, over the past few years, have become widely spread over a large number of papers. In particular, both strategic-form and coalition-form games are described in details while the key connections and differences betweenthemareoutlined.Moreover,aparticularattention is also devoted to clarify the connections between strategic-form games and distributed optimization and learning algorithms. Beyond an introduction to the basic concepts andmainsolutionapproaches,severalcarefullydesigned examples are provided to allow a better understanding of how to apply the described tools. I. INTRODUCTION game theory (GT) is a branch of mathematics that enables the modeling and analysis of the interactions between several decision-makers (called players) who can have conflicting or common objectives. A game is a situation in which the benefit or cost achieved by each player from an interactive situation depends, not only on its own decisions, but also on those taken by the other players. For example, the time a car driver needs to get back home generally depends not only on the route he/she chooses but also on the decisions taken by the other drivers. Therefore, in a game, the actions and objectives of the players are tightly coupled.Untilveryrecently,GThas been used only marginally in signal processing (SP), with notable examples being some applications in robust detection and estimation [1] as well as watermarking [2] (in which the watermarking problem is seen as a game between the data embedder and the attacker). -
Convergence to Approximate Nash Equilibria in Congestion Games†
Convergence to Approximate Nash Equilibria in Congestion Games† Steve Chien‡ Alistair Sinclair§ Abstract We study the ability of decentralized, local dynamics in non-cooperative games to rapidly reach an approximate Nash equilibrium. For symmetric congestion games in which the edge delays satisfy a “bounded jump” condition, we show that convergence to an ε-Nash equilibrium occurs within a number of steps that is polynomial in the number of players and ε−1. This appears to be the first such result for a class of games that includes examples for which finding an exact Nash equilibrium is PLS-complete, and in which shortest paths to an exact equilibrium are exponentially long. We show moreover that rapid convergence holds even under only the apparently minimal assumption that no player is excluded from moving for arbitrarily many steps. We also prove that, in a generalized setting where players have different “tolerances” εi that specify their thresholds in the approximate Nash equilibrium, the number of moves made by a player before equilibrium is reached depends only on his associated εi, and not on those of the other players. Finally, we show that polynomial time convergence still holds even when a bounded number of edges are allowed to have arbitrary delay functions. 1 Introduction The emerging field of algorithmic game theory has led to a fundamental re-examination, from a computational perspective, of the classical concept of Nash equilibrium [20]. Much of this activity has focused on understanding the structure of Nash equilibria (as expressed, notably, in the “price of anarchy,” see e.g. [22, 25, 24]) and the computational complexity of finding them (see, e.g., [10, 7, 4]). -
Bounded Rationality in Keynesian Beauty Contests: a Lesson for Central Bankers?
Vol. 14, 2020-16 | June 04, 2020 | http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2020-16 Bounded rationality in Keynesian beauty contests: a lesson for central bankers? Felix Mauersberger, Rosemarie Nagel, and Christoph Bühren Abstract The great recession (2008) triggered an apparent discrepancy between empirical findings and macroeconomic models based on rational expectations alone. This gap led to a series of recent developments of a behavioral microfoundation of macroeconomics combined with the underlying experimental and behavioral Beauty Contest (BC) literature, which the authors review in this paper. They introduce the reader to variations of the Keynesian Beauty Contest (Keynes, The general theory of employment, interest, and money, 1936), theoretically and experimentally, demonstrating systematic patterns of out-of-equilibrium behavior. This divergence of (benchmark) solutions and bounded rationality observed in human behavior has been resolved through stepwise reasoning, the so-called level k, or cognitive hierarchy models. Furthermore, the authors show how the generalized BC function with limited parameter specifications encompasses relevant micro and macro models. Therefore, the stepwise reasoning models emerge naturally as building blocks for new behavioral macroeconomic theories to understand puzzles like the lacking rise of inflation after the financial crisis, the efficacy of quantitative easing, the forward guidance puzzle, and the effectiveness of temporary fiscal expansion. (Published in Special Issue Bio-psycho-social foundations of macroeconomics) JEL E12 E13 E7 D80 D9 C91 Keywords Beauty Contest game; expectation formation; equilibration; level k reasoning; behavioral macroeconomics; game theory; experimental economics Authors Felix Mauersberger, University of Bonn, Germany Rosemarie Nagel, ICREA-UPF Barcelona GSE, Spain, [email protected] Christoph Bühren, Clausthal University of Technology, Germany Citation Felix Mauersberger, Rosemarie Nagel, and Christoph Bühren (2020). -
Efficiency of Mechanisms in Complex Markets
EFFICIENCY OF MECHANISMS IN COMPLEX MARKETS A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Cornell University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Vasileios Syrgkanis August 2014 ⃝c 2014 Vasileios Syrgkanis ALL RIGHTS RESERVED EFFICIENCY OF MECHANISMS IN COMPLEX MARKETS Vasileios Syrgkanis, Ph.D. Cornell University 2014 We provide a unifying theory for the analysis and design of efficient simple mechanisms for allocating resources to strategic players, with guaranteed good properties even when players participate in many mechanisms simultaneously or sequentially and even when they use learning algorithms to identify how to play and have incomplete information about the parameters of the game. These properties are essential in large scale markets, such as electronic marketplaces, where mechanisms rarely run in isolation and the environment is too complex to assume that the market will always converge to the classic economic equilib- rium or that the participants will have full knowledge of the competition. We propose the notion of a smooth mechanism, and show that smooth mech- anisms possess all the aforementioned desiderata in large scale markets. We fur- ther give guarantees for smooth mechanisms even when players have budget constraints on their payments. We provide several examples of smooth mech- anisms and show that many simple mechanisms used in practice are smooth (such as formats of position auctions, uniform price auctions, proportional bandwidth allocation mechanisms, greedy combinatorial auctions). We give algorithmic characterizations of which resource allocation algorithms lead to smooth mechanisms when accompanied by appropriate payment schemes and show a strong connection with greedy algorithms on matroids.