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Assessment of Wind and Solar Power Forecasting Techniques in SAARC Countries

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Assessment of Wind and Solar Power Forecasting Techniques in SAARC Countries SAARC Energy Centre Assessment of Wind and Solar Power Forecasting Techniques in SAARC Countries December 2020 This page is intentionally left blank Executive Summary As energy demand grows globally, an increasing proportion of the demand will be met through variable REs such as wind and solar energy. RE is a major focus area for developing nations as their economies look to exploit opportunities for sustainable growth. Factors driving the growth of renewables have received significant attention in academia as well as industry. Wind and solar power forecasting is an inevitable and critical component of power systems running on such renewable resources. Forecasting primarily helps reduce the uncertainty associated with power generated by uncontrollable input sources of energy within a globally connected and complex atmosphere. The aim of reducing uncertainty finds myriad benefactors across all stakeholders in the power and energy sectors. This is especially true in the case of SAARC nations that are all at different stages on their distinct paths of growth and advancement of their power systems and markets. Consequently, forecasting systems in each of these countries are also at different stages of development. Nations such as India and Sri Lanka are more advanced in their preparedness for higher penetration of variable REs compared whereas Afghanistan, Bhutan, Nepal and Maldives that are at nascent stages. Pakistan and Bangladesh find themselves in the middle of the spectrum with sectoral advancements taking shape in recent years. In order to obtain a holistic view of the status of forecasting systems in SAARC nations and provide relevant recommendations, it is imperative to first establish the fundamental concepts and terminologies that help frame a better understanding about RE forecasting. The primary input to wind and solar power forecasting is weather forecast data. Weather forecasting, a matured and growing field of study, relies on numerical simulation of the atmosphere and other earth systems using large-scale data. Weather forecasting has been, and is still, largely the domain of government meteorological departments. Private entrants in this field allow for countries with less mature meteorological departments to source weather forecast data commercially, if not procured through cooperative agreements with other nations. Weather parameters are converted into power generation values through modelling of physical attributes of generation plants. In addition, statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) methods allow for utilisation of generation data to accurately predict power generation at different time horizons. Such methods aim at correcting errors that originate from weather forecasting or aim at performing predictions using only locally sensed data for very near-term horizons. However, the most commonly adopted approaches for wind and solar power forecasting involve combining two or more methods, which helps improve accuracy by bringing together the benefits of different methods under different circumstances. Internationally implemented forecasting systems serve as a ready reference to recommend techniques for SAARC nations. Australian and European systems for wind and solar power forecasting provide a good source of learning from existing state of the art systems that have operationalised forecasting with various attributes and approaches. Before applying the learnings from existing systems and the fundamentals of forecasting methods, it is also important to assess the status of forecasting in each of the SAARC nations. A country-wise review of the power sector structure, meteorological prowess, existing electrical grid operation frameworks and existing forecasting systems will reveal the progress already made and gaps if any. A detailed look at all aspects of forecasting readiness requires a standardised scoring framework, iii which can be used to quantify the status of wind and solar power forecasting in each SAARC country. This will also serve as a self-evaluation tool for the countries to know where they stand on the path to operational implementation. Challenges in establishing forecasting systems usually span multiple and wide-ranging aspects. At the outset, policy and regulatory challenges must be addressed taking into consideration all stakeholders. Financial viability and enforcement mechanisms also need to be considered at the policy level. Technical challenges are another critical aspect that require careful planning such that the requirements of data and information technology infrastructure are covered. Setting up of infrastructure is an important part of establishing forecasting systems. During the implementation and operationalisation of forecasting systems, there may be challenges associated with data collection from dispersed and remote locations as well as in ensuring stakeholder participation in the process. Financially, the costs involved in setting up forecasting systems represent large initial investments that can be borne by all stakeholders but must be done without placing undue burden on any particular stakeholder. However, the costs can be optimised by considering newly developed technologies. For successful implementation of forecasting systems, it is recommended to adopt a collaborative approach towards stakeholder involvement and bring all views onto a common forum for future cooperation and participation. Further, planning for the implementation of forecasting systems must cover all requirements in detail, including requirements on types of forecasts, forecast attributes, reporting, support and capacity building. Detailed guidelines provided in the report, covering all stages of forecasting system establishment, may be used for self-assessment and planning. Country-specific recommendations, where applicable, have also been included for consideration of stakeholders. iv Table of contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ iii List of Figures ......................................................................................................................... ix List of Tables .......................................................................................................................... xi Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................... xiii Data used in this Study .......................................................................................................... xix 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction to Wind and Solar Power Forecasting Globally .......................................... 2 1.1.1 Overview of Wind and Solar Power Forecasting Techniques .............................. 2 1.1.2 Rising Importance of Wind and Solar Power Forecasting .................................... 3 1.1.3 Major Factors in Assessment of Forecasting Techniques .................................... 4 1.2 Framework Adopted to Execute the Study ..................................................................... 4 1.2.1 Introduction to Forecasting ................................................................................. 5 1.2.2 Current Status of SAARC Nations......................................................................... 6 1.2.3 Challenges and Recommendations ..................................................................... 7 2 Wind and Solar Power Forecasting .................................................................................... 9 2.1 Need for Wind and Solar Power Forecasting ................................................................ 10 2.1.1 Issues in Ensuring Stability and Security of grid ................................................. 10 2.1.2 Evolution of Deregulated Electricity Markets .................................................... 11 2.1.3 Reduction in Dependency on Non-market Mechanisms for Short Term Power 12 2.2 Forecasting Techniques for Solar and Wind Power ....................................................... 13 2.2.1 Weather Forecasting ......................................................................................... 16 2.2.2 Wind Power Forecasting ................................................................................... 16 2.2.3 Overview of Operational and Commercial WPF Systems Globally .................... 23 2.2.4 Solar Power Forecasting .................................................................................... 25 2.2.5 Overview of Operational and Commercial SPF Globally .................................... 31 2.3 Global Case Studies ....................................................................................................... 32 2.3.1 Financial Implications for Dealing with High RE................................................. 32 2.3.2 Impact on the Countries Owing to Adopted Wind and Solar techniques .......... 39 2.3.3 Policy Overview ................................................................................................. 42 v 2.3.4 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 45 3 ASSESSMENT FOR SAARC MEMBER STATES ..................................................................... 46 3.1 Assessment of RE Scenario in SAARC Member States ................................................... 47
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