Exporting the Second Amendment: U.S. Assault Weapons and the Homicide Rate in Mexico Luke Chicoine* University of Notre Dame Department of Economics First Draft: November 29, 2010 Current Draft: July 18, 2011 ABSTRACT In the four years following the expiration of the U.S. Federal Assault Weapons Ban (AWB), the homicide rate in Mexico increased 45 percent. Over the same period, over 60,000 firearms recovered in Mexico have been traced back to the U.S. A difference-in-difference approach is used to estimate the effect of the expiration of the AWB on homicide rates in Mexico; states with a strong pre-2005 drug cartel presence are defined as the treatment group. The baseline estimates suggest the expiration of the AWB is responsible for at least 16.4 percent of the increase in the homicide rate in Mexico between 2004 and 2008. (Keywords: assault weapons ban; Mexico; guns; drug cartels; homicides) (JEL Codes: F51, F52, K42) I am grateful to Trinidad Beleche, Shawn Bushway, John Donohue, Randi Hjalmarsson, John MacDonald, Emily Owens, and Viridiana Rios for their helpful comments. I would also like to thank Bill Evans and Jim Sullivan for their advice and guidance. As well as, Abbie Wozniak, the faculty at the University of Notre Dame, the participants of Development Economics Day at the University of Michigan and Diego Valle-Jones for their helpful comments, and the Kellogg Institute for International Studies and the Institute for Scholarship in the Liberal Arts for their support. * Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame, 434 Flanner Hall, Notre Dame, IN 46556 (e-mail:
[email protected], phone 206.795.3151, fax 574.631.4783).