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Modeling and Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Delaware River and Bay Area Risk Assessment and Mitigation FINAL REPORT Janua

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Modeling and Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Delaware River and Bay Area Risk Assessment and Mitigation FINAL REPORT Janua 204-RU6532 Modeling and Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Delaware River and Bay Area Risk Assessment and Mitigation FINAL REPORT January 2012 Submitted by Tayfur Altiok Ozhan Alper Almaz Amir Ghafoori Professor Research Assistant Research Assistant Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers University Center for Advanced Infrastructure and Transportation (CAIT) Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey Piscataway, NJ 08854 NJDOT Research Project Manager Scott Douglas In cooperation with New Jersey Department of Transportation Maritime Resources Disclaimer Statement The contents of this report reflect the views of the author(s) who is (are) responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the New Jersey Department of Transportation or the Federal Highway Administration. This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the information presented herein. This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Program, in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the contents or use thereof. ii TECHNICAL REPORT STANDARD TITLE PAGE 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. 204-RU6532 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Modeling and Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Delaware River January 2012 and Bay Area: Risk Assessment and Mitigation 6. Performing Organization Code CAIT/Rutgers 7. Author(s) Tayfur Altiok, Ozhan Alper Almaz, Amir Ghafoori 8. Performing Organization Report No. 204-RU6532 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. Center for Advanced Infrastructure and Transportation, Laboratory for Port Security (CAIT-LPS), Rutgers University 11. Contract or Grant No. 100 Brett Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854 13. Type of Report and Period Covered 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address Final Report New Jersey Department 05/29/2007-06/30/2011 of Transportation, Office of Maritime Resources P.O. Box 600, Trenton, NJ 08625 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 15. Supplementary Notes Email: [email protected] 16. Abstract This is the final report of a comprehensive study focusing on the maritime traffic in Delaware River and Bay. The study started in July of 2007 in collaboration with the Area maritime Security Committee in Sector Delaware Bay of the USCG. The study was carried out at the Laboratory for Port Security (LPS) at the Center for Advanced Infrastructure and Transportation, Rutgers, State University of New Jersey. The following milestones were achieved in the study. Simulation modeling of the maritime traffic Model based risk analysis of the maritime traffic Deepening impact analysis Analysis of the resumption of trade after reopening This report presents project description, objectives, model development and analysis carried out for each sub topic above. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Risk analysis of maritime traffic, simulation modeling of maritime traffic, deepening/dredge planning model, Delaware River and Bay, vessel prioritization 19. Security Classif (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 236 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8‐69) iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This project turned out to be highly challenging. A number of individual, and public and private organizations in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Delaware tri-state region participated in the project voluntarily and made it truly a regional effort. We would not be able to complete the project without their support and participation. In particular, we are indebted to Capt. David Scott (USCG, Ret.), former COPT of Sector Delaware Bay, for being instrumental at the initiation of the project and putting his years of experience on maritime issues at our service, especially in the risk analysis part of the project. Capt. John Cuff of the Pilots Association for the Bay and River Delaware was available at every opportunity for information on navigational issues. Doug Dillon, USCG (Ret.), Executive Director, Tri-State Maritime Safety Assoc., Harold Neil, former Director of Transportation Security and Michael Riley, former Manager of the Office of Maritime Resources, both retired from New Jersey Department of Transportation were all instrumental at the initiation of the project. Ken Beatty (USCG, ret.) Capt at Wilmington Tug, LCDR Soo Klein (USCG, ret.) of Sun Oil Co. and Jeffery Milstein of Moran Shipping Agency have all contributed to different parts of the project. Mr. Joe Balzano of the South Jersey Port Corporation and Marlin Peterson showed every effort to build future projects on this particular one. We are thankful to South Jersey Port Corporation, Philadelphia Regional Port Authority, OSG Inc., Sun Oil Co., Maritime Exchange for the Delaware River and Bay for their contributions and the Army Core of Engineers for making their information and data available to us for use in this project. The principal investigator also thanks to Dennis Rochford and Lisa Himber of the Maritime Exchange for the Delaware River and Bay for their insightful comments and strategic feedback in the deepening impact analysis. Finally, this project is being conducted in cooperation and under the sponsorship of the Office of Maritime Resources at the New Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT). The principal investigator expresses his gratitude to the NJDOT for providing iv the necessary funding for the research described herein. Special thanks are extended to Mr. Scott Douglas of the NJDOT for his input, support, and extending the opportunity to work in such a significant initiative. v TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................. 1 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 12 1.1. Project Description ........................................................................................... 12 1.1.1. Phase 1: Analysis of Vessel Traffic in the Delaware River Main Channel ....................................................................................................... 14 1.1.2. Phase 2: Deepening Impact on Navigation .............................................. 15 1.1.3. Phase 3: Risk Analysis and Mitigation Strategies ................................... 15 1.1.4. Phase 4: Vessel Prioritization during Incident Recovery ........................ 15 1.2. Why is Delaware River Vessel Traffic Important? .......................................... 16 2. SIMULATION MODEL OF THE VESSEL TRAFFIC IN DRMC ................................ 19 2.1. Literature on Models for Waterway and Port Traffic ...................................... 19 2.2. Modeling Maritime Traffic ................................................................................. 23 2.3. Vessel Traffic Data ............................................................................................ 23 2.4. Coast Pilot Recommendations for Navigation in DRB .................................. 29 2.5. Simulation Model Structure ............................................................................. 40 2.5.1. Vessel Generation ...................................................................................... 41 2.5.2. Itinerary Generation .................................................................................... 45 2.5.3. Modeling Navigation in the River .............................................................. 46 2.5.4. Lightering Operations ................................................................................ 47 2.5.5. Terminal Reservation Mechanism ............................................................. 49 2.5.6. Anchorages ................................................................................................. 50 2.5.7. Terminal Operations ................................................................................... 52 2.6. Overall View of the Model ................................................................................. 53 2.7. Output Statistics and Relevant Snapshots ..................................................... 60 2.8. Verification & Validation ................................................................................... 64 2.9. Conclusion for Simulation Modeling ............................................................... 70 3. IMPACT OF DEEPENING ON PORT PERFORMANCE .......................................... 71 3.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 71 3.2. Literature on Impact of Deepening on Port Performance .............................. 72 3.3. Deepening Scenarios ........................................................................................ 72 vi 3.3.1. Trade Growth .............................................................................................. 73 3.3.2. Deepening the Main Channel and Dredging of Berths (No Change in Fleet) ....................................................................................................... 73 3.3.3. Shift to a Fleet of Larger Vessels .............................................................. 75 3.4. Results of the Scenario Analysis....................................................................
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