BASIN CHANCE OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE AS COMPARED TO HISTORICAL Cool colors mean lower chance than “normal” for flooding

Warm colors mean higher chance than “normal” for flooding

Small gray dot means near “normal” for flooding.

THIS MAP DOES NOT SAY WHETHER A LOCATION IS EXPECTED TO FLOOD, OR NOT MESSAGE: THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE IN THE EASTERN PORTION

Building a Weather-Ready Nation MISSOURI BASIN Mountain Snowpack (as of 06 March)

Building a Weather-Ready Nation MISSOURI BASIN 2019 Mountain Runoff

Building a Weather-Ready Nation MISSOURI BASIN Plains Snowpack (as of 07 March 19)

Building a Weather-Ready Nation MISSOURI BASIN FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

In Montana: Minor flooding likely along the Milk River.

Building a Weather-Ready Nation MISSOURI BASIN FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

In North Dakota: Minor flooding likely along Little Muddy Creek and Spring Creek. Also along the Cannonball River.

In South Dakota: Minor flooding likely along the Little Missouri and Bad Rivers. Moderate flooding along the Grand, Moreau, and White Rivers. Major flooding expected along the Big Sioux, Vermillion, and James Rivers.

Building a Weather-Ready Nation MISSOURI BASIN FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

In Nebraska: Minor flooding likely along the Little Blue and Little Nemaha Rivers, within the Loup River basin, and along Salt Creek. The lower reach of the North Platte River may also see minor flooding. The Elkhorn In Iowa: Moderate flooding likely and Platte Rivers, and Ponca Cr are expected to see within the Nishnabotna River basin. moderate level flooding. Wood River, Shell Cr, Logan Major flooding expected along the Cr, and the N Fork Elkhorn are projected to experience Floyd, Ocheyedan, Rock, Little major level flooding. Sioux, and Big Sioux Rivers. Building a Weather-Ready Nation MISSOURI BASIN FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

Missouri River below Gavins: Moderate flooding expected.

In Missouri: Minor flooding expected along the Chariton, In : Minor flooding likely in the Big Moreau, Big Piney, Gasconade, Marmaton, and Osage Blue, Little Blue, Marais des Cygnes, and Rivers; as well as along Moniteau and Petite Saline Creeks. Republican River basins. Moderate Moderate flooding projected along the Grand, Crooked, flooding expected in the Smoky Hill, Blackwater, Lamine, Sac, South Grand, 102, and Platte Saline, Solomon, and Little Rivers; as well as on Big and Wakenda Creeks. Major basins. flooding expected along the Tarkio River. Building a Weather-Ready Nation MISSOURI BASIN SPRING FLOOD SUMMARY • Mountain snowpack is near average this year. We still have roughly 20% of snow accumulating period remaining. • Plains snowpack widespread across entire basin. Heaviest amounts along the northern-eastern boundary of the basin, with 2-to-3 inch SWE amounts common. • Wet soils in the eastern half of the basin. Widespread frozen ground conditions exist. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD RISK in the eastern portion of the basin. MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG TRIBS. • Freeze-up ice jam flooding has already occurred, but with no significant impacts. Break-up ice jam flooding is very likely as warming temperatures continued to be delayed later and later into Spring. • Significant flooding due to mountain snow runoff alone is not likely. • Minor-to-moderate flooding likely in the lower portion of the basin (eastern KS, southern IA, MO) due to localized thunderstorm activity. This is typical whether soils are wet, or not.

Building a Weather-Ready Nation