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Jackson County Employees' Retirement System JACKSON COUNTY EMPLOYEES' RETIREMENT SYSTEM The regular meeting of the Board of Trustees is scheduled as follows: September 27, 2018 8:30 a.m. Sixth Floor, Room 604 County Tower Building AGENDA 1. Approval of Agenda 2. Public Comment 3. Investment Manager Update – Brandes, Pranav Jaiswal presenting 4. Minutes a. Regular Meeting Minutes – August 23, 2018 b. Policy Committee Meeting Minutes – August 23, 2018 c. Investment Manager Committee Minutes – August 23, 2018 5. Monthly Financial Statement – August 2018 6. Consent Agenda a. Comerica Bank Custodial Statements of Account for August () b. Purchase of Service c. Refunds of Contributions d. Distribution of DROP Balances e. Approve Application(s) for Retirement f. Approve Application(s) for Deferred Retirement Option Plan (DROP) g. Statements Paid h. Correspondence i. Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd August 31, 2018 Settlement Report ii. Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd August 31, 2018 Portfolio Monitoring Report iii. Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd August 31, 2018 International Portfolio Monitoring Report iv. SSGA Performance and Analysis August 31, 2018 v. Morgan Stanley Client Statement for Period August 1-31, 2018; Morgan Stanley, SSGA, and Jefferies Transaction reports; SSGA Appraisal Report August 31, 2018 vi. () 7. Old Business a. Investment Manager Review Committee i. Other b. Policy Committee i. Policy 37 – Pension Administration Budget ii. Policy 38 – Actuarial Funding iii. Policy 19 – Repayment of Previously Withdrawn Accumulated Contributions iv. Policy 15 – Appointment of Public Member - Full report available in the Pension Coordinator’s Office Jackson County Employees’ Retirement System Board of Trustees – Agenda September 27, 2018 - Page 2 c. Legal Counsel Update i. Matters deemed pertinent ii. Letter from Attorney Chris Vlachos d. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Update i. Other e. Pension Coordinator i. Signature Audit – 2 benefits suspended from failure to return the form 8. New Business a. Informational Items i. Pension Coordinator Update – special project reviewing Disability Retirements b. Trustee Comments Committee Meetings (immediately following regular meeting): - Policy Committee Next Meeting: October 25, 2018 MINUTES OF JACKSON COUNTY EMPLOYEES’ RETIREMENT SYTEM Thursday, August 23, 2018 6th Floor Room 604 The August 23, 2018 Regular Meeting of the Jackson County Employees’ Retirement System Board of Trustees was called to order at 8:30 a.m. by Chairperson James E.(Steve) Shotwell, Jr. The following Trustees were present: Robert Griffis, Denise Owens, Tracey Johnson, Rodney Walz, Bryan Huttenlocker, Sharon Best, and James E. (Steve) Shotwell, Jr. Also in attendance: Jessica Gerlach – Pension Coordinator, Catherine Applegate – Pension Administrative Assistant, Nick Barris – Morgan Stanley, August Hurt – Morgan Stanley, Kayla Lange – Morgan Stanley, and Jack Timmony – VanOverbeke, Michaud and Timmony, P.C. Approval of Agenda: MOTION: Moved by Best, support by Griffis to approve the Agenda. Motion carried. Public Comment: None. Investment Manager Presentation: August Hurt with Morgan Stanley presented an update on behalf of Morgan Stanley & Co. Morgan Stanley has raised their GDP number from 2.7% to 3% for 2018 – economy is still doing very well. Very strong earnings from Target, Lowe’s, and Wal-Mart. A lot of movement in the economy. Average American has about $1,000 - $2,000 extra in their pocket because of the tax cut, a lot of it is moving and being spent thus the economy has kicked up a bit. They think it is a one-year surge driven by the repatriation of funds – again part of the tax cut / tax rate. Hopeful things stay strong but thinking things will drop back off next year. Unemployment is 3.8% - the U6 is down to 7.5% - lowest since 2001. What’s contained in that U6 number: discouraged worker, marginally attached worker, and the part time worker that wants to be full time. Labor participation rate at 62.9%, starting to see a lot of people retire. Inflation was 2.2% year over year through May; expecting to see it come in at 2.6%. Feds have been trying to get the rate up over 2% and they finally have it. Morgan Stanley believes it will drift back down a little bit next year into the upper 1’s. Consumer confidence still very high at 126.4, it did peak in February at 130, highest since 2000. Big news, and what’s driving the stock market, is corporate profits - up 16.88% year over year. Expecting they are peaking or will peak in 3rd quarter. Mr. Hurt shared a chart of the US dollar – highlighting that back on Valentine’s Day, it was about 88.6 - Dollar versus a basket of currencies. Peaked at 96.8, about a 9% move up in the USD, now it’s backed off a little bit, still up about 7%; significant move in a short period of time. Whenever the dollar goes up it makes exporting of goods more expensive and vice a versa so it has been a little bit of negative for companies. This hurts foreign stocks owned in USD. Why the significant move – part of it is still interest rates – rates are well over 2% now; Germany at .4 - 10 year, Japan at .1. Last big item on the macro overview is trade decisions – caused a little bit of nervousness in the market, more so overseas than here. The Chinese stock market is down 24% for the year – emerging markets, which includes India, Latin America, Eastern Europe, down 9% for the year. A lot of nervousness because of trade discussions. We are hearing rumors of potential deal being struck with Mexico, hearing they will take that blueprint to Canada to renegotiate that part of NAFTA. Europe has said they are going to continue discussions. Chinese started low level talks again with US on trade. Capital markets -the Bond Market – last time we met the AG down 2% but has had a little recovery, still down 1%. Corporate bonds which were down 3% is still down 2% for the year. Jackson County Retirement System Board of Trustees – Minutes for July 26, 2018 - Page 1 Looking at the flatness of the yield curve – 7 of the last 12 recessions were preceded by an inverted yield curve where the short rates are higher than the long rates and we’re getting closer and closer to that. As of right now the 2 year is 2.6%, 5 year is 2.7%, 10 year is 2.8% and 30 year is 3%. Fed will probably raise the short term Fed funds rate so may see that curve flatten a little more. The next potential Fed hike could be in December, and right now odds are that they are going to hike in December as well. Firm thinks it will see two more hikes next year, probably in the first half of the year, and that we will go to an inverted yield curve sometime in the first half of next year. We will see what that does in the financial world. Stocks – thanks to a wonderful move the last 6-7 weeks, your stock market is now up over 7% - continuing to be led by growth stocks – growth stocks continue to outperform value stocks. Large Growth up just under 6%, where Value only up just over 1%. Mid Cap Growth up 3% - Mid Cap Value up about 2.5%. Small Caps however different story – Small Cap Value up 8.3%, Small Cap Growth only 7.2%. Why are small stocks moving - less trade concerns, most of their business is done in the US. During the Quarter real strength was in Energy – up 13.5%. Consumer Discretionary up 8%, Technology up 7%. Weakness was in Industrials – because of trade – down 3% and Financials also down about 3%. Expecting S&P 500 which is right now about 28.61 to finish the year at 27.50 – Firm thinks will finish lower than we are right now. Subject to change of course, but the concern has been the rolling correction sector by sector, only two areas that have not been hit that hard yet are Consumer Discretionary and Technology - have started to see some cracks - Netflix dropped over 20% - Facebook dropped over 20% - started to see a little bit of that happen – if spreads to the whole sector could keep the market choppy. And of course the Election in November – that could have an impact at some point. Lastly, International markets – the real negative – Japan is down 4.8%, China is down 24%, Europe down just over 1% – the index down almost 4% for the year. That’s hurt all of our accounts with foreign managers. If trade resolution is done could see those market spring back. Kayla Lange spoke of the packet distributed at the meeting. She provided an update on the Portfolio – as of June 30th total market value is just above $231 million for the portfolio. Investment earnings were about $4.8 million for the quarter; which equates to performance of about 2% overall for the plan for the quarter. This is seemingly modest, especially as compared to some returns in 2017, but in terms of a balanced portfolio, it was a pretty difficult feat to overcome. The portfolio was able to outpace the policy benchmark by about 87 basis points. The S&P was the place to be for the year. At the end of the 2nd quarter the market was up 3.5%. Bonds again rough start – down .16% - International down 1.25%. Year to date the Portfolio is up 2.4% net of fees. Again, seeing some significant outperformance verses the policy benchmark. The Portfolio has earns of almost $92 million dollars over the last 10 years. Shotwell asked to clarify that the number since inception doesn’t include buying the Bond investment – Lange advised that was correct, it does not include that.
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