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Benefits and Costs of Euro Implementation in Poland

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Benefits and Costs of Euro Implementation in Poland CRACOW UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Major: International Economic Relations Specialization: Studies in Trans-Atlantic International Relations Maggie Badgley BENEFITS AND COSTS OF EURO IMPLEMENTATION IN POLAND A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment requirements for the degree of Bachelor Academic Advisor: Dr hab. Krzysztof Wach Kraków 2013 Benefit and Cost of Euro Implementation in Poland Page 1 Imię i nazwisko studenta: Maggie Badgley Nr albumu: 179635 Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie Wydział Ekonomii i Stosunków Międzynarodowych Kierunek: międzynarodowe stosunki gospodarcze (w j. ang.) Specjalność: Studies in Trans-Atlantic International Relations OŚWIADCZENIE STUDENTA Niniejszym oświadczam, że pracę licencjacką na temat: “Benefits and Costs of Euro Implementation in Poland” napisałam samodzielnie. Oświadczam, że praca nie zawiera żadnych informacji, które zostały pozyskane w sposób niezgodny z prawem oraz oświadczam, iż praca nie narusza praw autorskich w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 4 lutego 1994 r. o prawie autorskim i prawach pokrewnych (Dz. U. z 2006 r. nr 90, poz. 631 z późniejszymi zmianami), oraz nie narusza dóbr osobistych zgodnie z prawem cywilnym. Oświadczam również, że przedstawiona praca nie była wcześniej przedmiotem procedur związanych z uzyskaniem tytułu zawodowego w wyższej uczelni. Kraków, dnia 13 czerwca 2013 ............................................ /podpis studenta/ Benefit and Cost of Euro Implementation in Poland Page 2 Table of Contents 1: Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 6 1.1 Research Topic, Objectives and Hypothesis ....................................................................................... 6 1.2 Background of the Topic ..................................................................................................................... 7 1.3 Research Methodology and Thesis Outline ........................................................................................ 8 2. History of Eurozone and Convergence Criteria ..................................................................................... 10 2.1 The Euro History ................................................................................................................................ 10 2.2 Convergence Criteria......................................................................................................................... 12 2.3 Preceded Benefits and Disadvantages .............................................................................................. 14 2.3.1 Benefits ...................................................................................................................................... 14 2.3.2 Disadvantages ............................................................................................................................ 15 3. Euro Adoption and Its Results. Case Studies of Slovenia, Slovakia and Estonia .................................. 17 3.1 The importance of selected countries for comparative analysis ...................................................... 17 3.2 Slovenia ............................................................................................................................................. 19 3.2.1 Price Stability.............................................................................................................................. 19 3.2.2 Public Finances ........................................................................................................................... 20 3.2.3 Exchange Rate Stability .............................................................................................................. 21 3.2.4 Long Term Interest Rates ........................................................................................................... 22 3.3 Slovakia ............................................................................................................................................. 23 3.3.1 Price Stability.............................................................................................................................. 23 3.3.2 Public Finances ........................................................................................................................... 24 3.3.3 Exchange Rate Stability .............................................................................................................. 25 3.3.4 Long Term Interest Rates ........................................................................................................... 26 3.4 Estonia ............................................................................................................................................... 27 3.4.1 Price stability .............................................................................................................................. 28 3.4.2 Public Finances ........................................................................................................................... 29 3.4.3 Exchange Rate Stability .............................................................................................................. 30 3.4.4 Long Term Interest Rate ............................................................................................................ 30 3.5 Results After The Change .................................................................................................................. 31 3.5.1 Slovenia ...................................................................................................................................... 32 3.5.2 Slovakia ...................................................................................................................................... 34 Benefit and Cost of Euro Implementation in Poland Page 3 3.5.3 Estonia ........................................................................................................................................ 35 4. Prospects of Euro Implementation in Poland. Empirical Analysis ....................................................... 38 4.1 Meeting the Convergence Criteria in Poland .................................................................................... 38 4.1.1 Price Stability.............................................................................................................................. 38 4.1.2 Public Finances ........................................................................................................................... 41 4.1.3 Exchange Rate Stability .............................................................................................................. 42 4.1.4 Long term Interest Rates............................................................................................................ 44 4.2 Polish Society Attitude towards Euro Implementation: Own Survey ............................................... 44 4.3.1 Survey Questions ....................................................................................................................... 46 4.3.2 Sample Size and Distribution ..................................................................................................... 46 4.4.1 The Results of the Survey ........................................................................................................... 47 5. Conclusion: Should Poland Make the Switch? ...................................................................................... 51 Benefit and Cost of Euro Implementation in Poland Page 4 Benefit and Cost of Euro Implementation in Poland Page 5 1: Introduction In this introduction I will first define my thesis, followed by a brief overview as to why I chose this topic, present my research methodology and main sources used for data collection. 1.1 Research Topic, Objectives and Hypothesis The Euro banknotes and coins have been in circulation since January of 2002. It was, and is, a process that aims to unify Europe by removing certain barriers to trade and merging the monetary and fiscal policies of all who participate. This is achieved though a set of strict requirements laid out in the Maastricht treaty referred to as the convergence criteria. The main objective of the thesis is to verify that it would benefit Poland’s economy in the long run with euro implementation using numerical data and survey. Within such the main purpose, the following operating objectives were established: O1: Presentation and discussion of euro history and convergence criteria. O2: Analysis of the benefits and costs of euro implementation in three selected countries (Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia) enabling to draw some lessons for Poland. O3: Analysis of the state of the convergence criteria meeting in Poland. O4: Diagnosis and analysis of the attitude towards euro in Poland by using a questionnaire survey. The focus of this paper will be that joining the eurozone would be economically beneficial for Poland, which is the research hypothesis to be proved. They have been in the European Union (EU) since May of 2004, and are in turn required to make the appropriate steps to gain acceptance in the EMU. “The government aims at achieving this goal as soon as possible, however taking into account the necessary conditions of a secure euro area membership.”1 In 1 Bureau of Government Plenipotentiary for Euro Adoption in Poland. "Euro in Poland: Documents." Ministry of
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