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Designing Agrometeorological Information Services in Ghana by Combining Local and Scientific Forecasting Knowledge Invitation Designing Agrometeorological Information Services in Ghana by Combining Local and Scientific Forecasting Knowledge Designing Invitation You are cordially invited to Designing Agrometeorological Information Services in Ghana attend the public defence of my PhD thesis entitled: by Combining Local and Scientific Forecasting Knowledge Designing Agrometeorological Talardia Gbangou Information Services in Ghana by Combining Local and Scientific Forecasting Knowledge On Monday 18 January 2021 at 1:30 p.m. in the Aula of Wageningen University, Generaal Foulkesweg 1a, Wageningen Talardia Gbangou [email protected] +31 613091695 Paranymphs: Spyros Paparrizos [email protected] Wouter Smolenaars [email protected] Talardia Gbangou Talardia Propositions 1. There is no single approach to integrating local and scientific forecasting systems. (this thesis) 2. Understanding the full potential of local forecasting system requires an interdisciplinary approach. (this thesis) 3. Observational data sets are more important for rejecting bad models than for improving good models. 4. Both climate and non-climate related actions are needed to address food insecurity. 5. Synchronizing science, society, and technology for climate change adaptation is like aligning the best strikers in a ‘football game’. 6. The passion for solving environmental problems drives creativity. Propositions belong to the thesis, entitled Designing Agrometeorological Information Services in Ghana by Combining Local and Scientific Forecasting Knowledge Talardia Gbangou Wageningen, 18th January 2021 Designing Agrometeorological Information Services in Ghana by Combining Local and Scientific Forecasting Knowledge Talardia Gbangou Thesis committee Promotor Prof. Dr F. Ludwig Personal chair, Water Systems and Global Change Group Wageningen University & Research Co-promotors Dr E.J.J van Slobbe Researcher and Teacher, Water Systems and Global Change Group Wageningen University & Research Prof. Dr G. Kranjac-Berisavljevic Director of Office for International Relationships and Advancement of the University for Development Studies (UDS-DIRA), Tamalé, Ghana Other members: Prof. Dr A.M.G. Klein Tank, Wageningen University & Research Dr R. Kasei, University for Development Studies, Tamalé, Ghana Prof. Dr E.J. Moors, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education Dr A.M.E. Groot, Wageningen University & Research This research was conducted under the auspices of the Graduate School for Socio Economic and Natural Sciences of the Environment (SENSE) 2 Designing Agrometeorological Information Services in Ghana by Combining Local and Scientific Forecasting Knowledge Talardia Gbangou Thesis Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of doctor at Wageningen University by the authority of the Rector Magnificus Prof. Dr A.P.J. Mol, in the presence of the Thesis Committee appointed by the Academic Board to be defended in public on Monday 18 January 2021 at 1:30 p.m. in the Aula. 3 Talardia Gbangou Designing Agrometeorological Information Services in Ghana by Combining Local and Scientific Forecasting Knowledge, 213 pages. PhD thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands (2021) With references, with summary in English ISBN 978-94-6395-634-5 DOI https: //doi.org/10.18174/536154 4 This book is dedicated to: The loving memory of my late Father (Boari Gbangou) and Mother (Diakpampoa Naba). Rest on Dad and Mom, you are forever in my heart. 5 Abstract Agriculture is a key source of food and income security for farmers in Ghana. The farming sector, however, is severely affected by climate variability and change, with subsistence farmers impacted worst of all. Providing reliable, accessible and actionable agrometeorological forecast information can enable smallholder farmers to increase their adaptive capacity in the face of climate variability and change. This study investigated weather and climate information services for smallholder farmers, particularly, how the quality, accessibility and use of such services can be improved. Several methods and tools were developed drawing on and/or integrating scientific and local forecasting knowledge systems. The study first identified and investigated trends in the variability and predictability of key local agrometeorological indicators, namely wet season onset dates, dry spell occurrence and seasonal rainfall. Forecast performance was assessed using both dynamical (i.e., ECMWF System 4) and statistical (i.e., influence of sea surface temperatures) models, which were compared to weather station observations across Ghana. Results show high interannual variability of the agrometeorological indicators, especially across the coastal zone and in northern Ghana. Performance of the scientific, model-based seasonal forecasts in reproducing the observed interannual variability was a function of location, lead time, categories and the agrometeorological indicators considered. Categorical (probabilistic) seasonal predictions provided smallholder farmers valuable information for coping with climate variability. Forecast performance was greater for the coastal savanna than for the other agroecological zones. Next, the potential for improving forecast accuracy by combining local and scientific, model-based forecasts was explored in the Ada East district case study location. There, I found that combining a specific set of local forecast indicators could improve local forecast performance. Particularly, one-day rainfall forecasts could be improved by use of local and scientific forecasts side-by-side, depending on the set of local forecast indicators observed by farmers. The range of identified local forecast indicators offers the potential for development of other approaches to integrate local and modern forecasting systems, to improve and enrich each. I also analysed a citizen science coproduction experiment to produce and implement an ICT-based climate information service tailored for smallholder farmers in the Ada East district of Ghana. In this case, the co-design of user-friendly digital tools (smartphone apps) and coproduction of local and scientific forecast information with and for smallholder farmers facilitated access, understanding and the usefulness of the tools and information for decision-making. Implementing 6 such a service requires intensive collaboration between researchers and a dedicated group of farmers and extension agents to build a basis for information production and dissemination in the area of interest. In this case, the collaboration included a capacity building component, as well as monitoring and technical assistance, especially in the development phase. Overall, the current research indicates that access to and use of reliable, locally actionable agrometeorological forecast information is possible in Ghana and elsewhere. Three key findings of this research warrant particular mention: (i) scientific forecasts need to be tailored to smallholder farmers’ needs; (ii) integration of local forecasting knowledge can add value to scientific, model- based climate information services; and (iii) a tailor-made ICT-based weather and climate information platform can effectively deliver useful and actionable information to smallholder farmers while providing a vehicle for feedback. 7 Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ 6 Chapter 1. General Introduction ....................................................................................................... 9 Chapter 2. Seasonal variability and predictability of agro-meteorological indices: Tailoring onset of rainy season estimation to meet farmers’ needs in Ghana ......................................................... 22 Chapter3. Rainfall and dry spell occurrence in Ghana: trends and seasonal predictions with a dynamical and a statistical model ................................................................................................... 47 Chapter 4. Harnessing local forecasting knowledge on weather and climate in Ghana: documentation, skills and integration with scientific forecasting knowledge................................ 74 Chapter 5. Coproducing Weather Forecast Information with and for Smallholder Farmers in Ghana: Evaluation and Design Principles .................................................................................... 106 Chapter 6. Synthesis ..................................................................................................................... 140 References .................................................................................................................................... 156 Supplementary information .......................................................................................................... 167 Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 201 Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ 205 About the author ........................................................................................................................... 207 List of publications ....................................................................................................................... 209 SENSE training and education diploma ......................................................................................
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