DOCSLIB.ORG

Mediation and Artificial Intelligence: Notes on the Future of International Conflict Resolution Diplofoundation IMPRESSUM

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Mediation and Artificial Intelligence: Notes on the Future of International Conflict Resolution Diplofoundation IMPRESSUM Mediation and artificial intelligence: Notes on the future of international conflict resolution DiploFoundation IMPRESSUM Layout and design: Viktor Mijatović, Aleksandar Nedeljkov Copy editing: Mary Murphy Author and researcher: Katharina E. Höne Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under http://creativecommons.org/licences/by-nc-nd/3.0/ 2 DiploFoundation, 7bis Avenue de la Paix, 1201 Geneva, Switzerland Publication date: November 2019 For further information, contact DiploFoundation at [email protected] For more information on Diplo’s AI Lab, go to https://www.diplomacy.edu/AI To download the electronic copy of this report, click on https://www.diplomacy.edu/sites/default/files/Mediation_and_AI.pdf 3 Table of Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................................... 5 Executive summary ............................................................................................................................................................... 6 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Mediation and AI: The broad picture ................................................................................................................................... 8 Understanding AI and related concepts ....................................................................................................................... 8 A three-part typology to think through the relationship of AI and mediation ......................................................... 9 AI literacy for mediators................................................................................................................................................ 10 AI as a tool for mediators: Mapping the field ................................................................................................................... 11 Potential applications and uses of AI .......................................................................................................................... 11 Key considerations and precautions when using AI tools ....................................................................................... 14 Implications for trust and buy-in ................................................................................................................................. 16 Conclusions and further recommendations .................................................................................................................... 18 4 Acknowledgements In March 2018, a group of organisations came together diplomacy.2,3 The work of colleagues and the many con- to form the #CyberMediation initiative to inform media- versations about these topics have been important in tion practitioners about the impact of new information pushing the ideas in this report forward. Members of and communication technologies on mediation, includ- Diplo’s Data Team and Diplo’s AI Lab4 have been indis- ing their benefits, challenges, and risks in relation to pensable intellectual sparring partners. peacemaking; to develop synergies between the medi- ation community and the tech sector; and to identify A special thanks goes to two interviewees for this report, areas of particular relevance and co-operation. Over Miloš Strugar (executive director of Conflux center, UN the past 18 months, a number of meetings, both in situ Senior Mediation Advisor) and Diego Osorio (expert in and online, furthered this conversation among mem- mediation, negotiations, and peace processes) for their bers of the #CyberMediation initiative. Ideas and insights time and support at various stages of this project.5 generated through this exchange helped to inspire this report. Particular thanks goes to the Mediation For their support in finalising this report, special thanks go Support Unit (United Nations Department of Political to colleagues at Diplo – in particular Viktor Mijatović, Mina and Peacebuilding Affairs), the Centre for Humanitarian Mudrić, and Aleksandar Nedeljkov – and to Mary Murphy. Dialogue, and swisspeace.1 This report is published in the framework of a project This report builds on previous work by DiploFoundation supported by the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs on the role of big data and artificial intelligence (AI) in of Switzerland. We gratefully acknowledge this support. 5 Executive summary This report provides an overview of artificial intelligence and background research, (b) generating a good under- (AI) in the context of mediation. Over the last few years standing of the conflict and the parties to the conflict, and AI has emerged as a hot topic with regard to its impact (c) creating greater inclusivity of mediation processes. on our political, social, and economic lives. The impact of AI on international and diplomatic relations has also The report also highlights three areas of consideration been widely acknowledged and discussed. This report and precaution when using AI as a tool for mediation: (a) focuses more specifically on the practice of mediation. It potential biases related to data sets and algorithms that aims to inform mediation practitioners about the impact need to be acknowledged, (b) the need for strong provi- of AI on mediation, including its benefits, its challenges, sions regarding data privacy and security, and (c) the and its risks in relation to peacemaking. It also hints at need for collaboration with the private sector on some synergies between the mediation and technology com- of these tools. munities and possible avenues of co-operation. Trust can play an important role on the road towards Broadly speaking, the report provides (a) a mapping of successful mediation. The report identifiesthree ways the relationship between AI and mediation, (b) examples in which the use of AI tools might impact trust in the of AI tools for mediation, (c) thoughts on key considera- context of mediation: (a) if AI tools are used by media- tions and precautions when using AI tools, and (d) a dis- tors and their teams, it is important to undertake steps cussion on the potential impact of AI tools on trust in the to build trust in these tools; (b) trust in AI tools or the lack context of mediation. thereof might also impact the trust enjoyed by media- tors and their teams and vice versa; (c) AI tools might In mapping the relationship between AI and media- also be used to build a ‘working trust’ between the par- tion, the report offers a three-part typology: (a) AI as a ties in conflict, in particular when it comes to monitoring topic for mediation, (b) AI as a tool for mediation, and (c) and implementation. AI as something that impacts the environment in which meditation is practised. Lastly, the report offersfour additional recommen- dations for taking work in the context of AI and Based on this, the report argues that even if mediators mediation further: (a) engaging in capacity build- do not directly engage with AI tools, they need to have ing for AI in mediation that goes beyond AI literacy; a basic AI literacy. AI has started to shape the envi- (b) considering a re-shaping of mediation teams to ronment of conflict resolution and might, in the not so include relevant topical and technical expertise in the distant future, play a role in the conflict itself. area of AI; (c) developing best practices and guide- lines for working with the private sector; and (d) The report identifies three areas in which AI applica- engaging in foresight scenario planning and proof of tions can usefully support the work of mediators and concept regarding the use of existing and future AI their teams: (a) supporting knowledge management tools for mediation 6 Introduction This report provides an overview of AI in the context of Having said this, it is still worth exploring new tools for mediation. Over the last years AI has emerged as a hot mediation, if they offer the chance to support the journey topic with regard to its impact on our political, social, and towards conflict resolution. More broadly speaking, AI economic lives. The impact of AI on international and dip- will impact the work of mediators by changing the envi- lomatic relations has also been widely acknowledged and ronment in which conflict resolution is practised and discussed. However, at this point in the discussion, we regardless of whether mediators actively use AI tools need to carefully navigate between hype around AI and a for their work, this should be enough reason to learn dystopian vision of the technology. It is equally important more about the impact of AI on mediation. that the discussion on AI moves from general observa- tions to specific examples and applications. This report The first part of this report provides a broad overview takes these discussions forward in a productive way. of AI and mediation by (a) introducing key concepts related to AI, (b) mapping the relationship between AI More specifically, this report focuses on the practice of and mediation, and (c) stressing the importance of AI mediation, understood as ‘the active search for a negoti- literacy for mediators. The second part focuses more ated settlement to an international or intrastate conflict specifically on AI tools for mediation. It sheds light on by an impartial third party’.6 It informs mediation prac- potential applications of AI, adds key considerations
Load more

Recommended publications
  • A Comprehensive Workplace Environment Based on a Deep
    International Journal on Advances in Software, vol 11 no 3 & 4, year 2018, http://www.iariajournals.org/software/ 358 A Comprehensive Workplace Environment based on a Deep Learning Architecture for Cognitive Systems Using a multi-tier layout comprising various cognitive channels, reflexes and reasoning Thorsten Gressling Veronika Thurner Munich University of Applied Sciences ARS Computer und Consulting GmbH Department of Computer Science and Mathematics Munich, Germany Munich, Germany e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] Abstract—Many technical work places, such as laboratories or All these settings share a number of commonalities. For test beds, are the setting for well-defined processes requiring both one thing, within each of these working settings a human being high precision and extensive documentation, to ensure accuracy interacts extensively with technical devices, such as measuring and support accountability that often is required by law, science, instruments or sensors. For another thing, processing follows or both. In this type of scenario, it is desirable to delegate certain a well-defined routine, or even precisely specified interaction routine tasks, such as documentation or preparatory next steps, to protocols. Finally, to ensure that results are reproducible, some sort of automated assistant, in order to increase precision and reduce the required amount of manual labor in one fell the different steps and achieved results usually have to be swoop. At the same time, this automated assistant should be able documented extensively and in a precise way. to interact adequately with the human worker, to ensure that Especially in scenarios that execute a well-defined series of the human worker receives exactly the kind of support that is actions, it is desirable to delegate certain routine tasks, such required in a certain context.
    [Show full text]
  • Build Your Trust Advantage, Leadership in the Era of Data
    Global C-suite Study 20th Edition Build Your Trust Advantage Leadership in the era of data and AI everywhere This report is IBM’s fourth Global C-suite Study and the 20th Edition in the ongoing IBM CxO Study series developed by the IBM Institute for Business Value (IBV). We have now collected data and insights from more than 50,000 interviews dating back to 2003. This report was authored in collaboration with leading academics, futurists, and technology visionaries. In this report, we present our key findings of CxO insights, experiences, and sentiments based on analysis as described in the research methodology on page 44. Build Your Trust Advantage | 1 Build Your Trust Advantage Leadership in the era of data and AI everywhere Global C-suite Study 20th Edition Our latest study draws on input from 13,484 respondents across 6 C-suite roles, 20 industries, and 98 countries. 2,131 2,105 2,118 2,924 2,107 2,099 Chief Chief Chief Chief Chief Chief Executive Financial Human Information Marketing Operations Officers Officers Resources Officers Officers Officers Officers 3,363 Europe 1,910 Greater China 3,755 North America 858 Japan 915 Middle East and Africa 1,750 Asia Pacific 933 Latin America 2 | Global C-suite Study Table of contents Executive summary 3 Introduction 4 Chapter 1 Customers: How to win in the trust economy 8 Action guide 19 Chapter 2 Enterprises: How to build the human-tech partnership 20 Action guide 31 Chapter 3 Ecosystems: How to share data in the platform era 32 Action guide 41 Conclusion: Return on trust 42 Acknowledgments 43 Related IBV studies 43 Research methodology 44 Notes and sources 45 Build Your Trust Advantage | 3 Executive summary More than 13,000 C-suite executives worldwide their data scientists, to uncover insights from data.
    [Show full text]
  • A.I. Technologies Applied to Naval CAD/CAM/CAE
    A.I. Technologies Applied to Naval CAD/CAM/CAE Jesus A. Muñoz Herrero, SENER, Madrid/Spain, [email protected] Rodrigo Perez Fernandez, SENER, Madrid/Spain, [email protected] Abstract Artificial Intelligence is one of the most enabling technologies of digital transformation in the industry, but it is also one of the technologies that most rapidly spreads in our daily activity. Increasingly, elements and devices that integrate artificial intelligence features, appear in our everyday lives. These characteristics are different, depending on the devices that integrate them, or the aim they pursue. The methods and processes that are carried out in Marine Engineering cannot be left out of this technology, but the peculiarities of the profession and the people that take part in it must be taken into account. There are many aspects in which artificial intelligence can be applied in the field of our profession. The management and access to all the information necessary for the correct and efficient execution of a naval project is one of the aspects where this technology can have a very positive impact. Access all the rules, rules, design guides, good practices, lessons learned, etc., in a fast and intelligent way, understanding the natural language of the people, identifying the most appropriate to the process that is being carried out and above all. Learning as we go through the design, is one of the characteristics that will increase the application of this technology in the professional field. This article will describe the evolution of this technology and the current situation of it in the different areas of application.
    [Show full text]
  • Ilearn Goals
    Combining AI and collective intelligence to create a GPS for knowledge CRI Paris We experiment at frontiers of learning, life and digital From babies to lifelong learning LMD students Learning by doing Interdisciplinarity Sustainable Development goals A changing job market Too much! Fake news Recruting for skills on the digital job market Can we reinvent learning with artificial intelligence? What can you (almost) do with AI today? Deep Learning Classification Generation Who are these persons? www.thispersondoesnotexist.com Based on GAN (Generative Adversarial Networks) A.I. image generation From text to image From text to image Text generation Automatic Q&A generation from Wikipedia Debating with A.I. February 12th, 2019 IBM Project Debater vs. World Debating Champion Motion: “We should subsidise preschool” ● 15 mins to prepare arguments ● 4-minute opening statement ● 4-minute rebuttal ● 2-minute summary Predictive tools Pneumonia detection from thorax radiographies (2017) Deepfake A.I. lip reading Conversational interfaces May 2018 Google Duplex iLearn goals Map all learning resources available on the Internet Build learning profiles of our users Provide them maps of their own learnings Match learners with adapted resources Match learners with mentors or co-learners iLearn Knowledge maps + = + Collective Artificial intelligence intelligence Learning groups iLearn iLearn Tags an online Users improve document as a qualification Concepts extraction useful learning (concepts and resource difficulty) Artificial Collective Intelligence Intelligence
    [Show full text]
  • Comments from More Cowbell Unlimited
    June 10, 2019 Elham Tabassi National Institute of Standards and Technology 100 Bureau Drive, Stop 200 Gaithersburg, MD 20899 TM Enclosed: Technical Paper: FOCAL Information Warfare Defense Standard ​ (v1.0 minus Appendix) ​ Dear Ms. Tabassi, Thank you for the opportunity to submit comments in response to the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s (NIST) request for information on artificial intelligence (AI) standards. We assert that NIST should work collaboratively with Federal agencies and the private sector to develop a cross sector Information Warfare (IW) Defense Standard. The enclosed technical paper supports our assertion and TM​ describes our FOCAL IW Defense Standard ,​ which is available for anyone to use. ​ More Cowbell Unlimited, Inc. is a process mining and data science firm based in Portland OR. We are developing process technologies in support of national security and industry. Our mission is to help America remain a beacon of hope and strength on the world stage. Technological advancements are a double-edged sword. AI is a tool which promises great things for humanity, such reducing poverty and allowing creativity to flourish; however, there is a dark side which we believe must be the focal point of national security. Unsurprisingly, hunger for dominance and money are present in this discussion, too. Feeding large hordes of private information into an AI to create a “World Brain” is plausible and provides a vehicle to project power in various ways. One way to monetize and project power from this information is through advertisements. Another way--perhaps one we are already seeing-- is through IW. As the world becomes more reliant upon information, IW boosted with weaponized AI is a major threat.
    [Show full text]
  • Leading Edge Technologies from the Slide Rule to the Cloud
    Liquidtool Systems AG Leading Edge Technologies From the Slide Rule to the Cloud Rudolf Meyer 2021-03-24 Table of Contents 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 2 2.1 Industry 0.0 – Industrial prerequisites ..................................................................... 3 2.2 Industry 1.0 – Industrial production .......................................................................... 3 2.3 Industry 2.0 – Industrial mass-production ............................................................. 4 2.4 Industry 3.0 – Industrial automation ........................................................................ 4 2.5 Industry 3.5 – Industrial globalization ...................................................................... 5 3 A closer look – Where do we stand now? ..................................................................... 6 3.1 Industry 4.0 – Industrial digitization ......................................................................... 7 3.2 Leading edge technologies for Industry 4.0 ....................................................... 10 4 Looking ahead – Industry 4.0, 5.0, 6.0, 7.0… ................................................................ 15 Impact on the labor market .............................................................................................. 15 Impending developments .................................................................................................16 4.1 Industry 5.0
    [Show full text]
  • Creating the Engine for Scientific Discovery
    www.nature.com/npjsba PERSPECTIVE OPEN Nobel Turing Challenge: creating the engine for scientific discovery ✉ Hiroaki Kitano 1 Scientific discovery has long been one of the central driving forces in our civilization. It uncovered the principles of the world we live in, and enabled us to invent new technologies reshaping our society, cure diseases, explore unknown new frontiers, and hopefully lead us to build a sustainable society. Accelerating the speed of scientific discovery is therefore one of the most important endeavors. This requires an in-depth understanding of not only the subject areas but also the nature of scientific discoveries themselves. In other words, the “science of science” needs to be established, and has to be implemented using artificial intelligence (AI) systems to be practically executable. At the same time, what may be implemented by “AI Scientists” may not resemble the scientific process conducted by human scientist. It may be an alternative form of science that will break the limitation of current scientific practice largely hampered by human cognitive limitation and sociological constraints. It could give rise to a human-AI hybrid form of science that shall bring systems biology and other sciences into the next stage. The Nobel Turing Challenge aims to develop a highly autonomous AI system that can perform top-level science, indistinguishable from the quality of that performed by the best human scientists, where some of the discoveries may be worthy of Nobel Prize level recognition and beyond. npj Systems Biology and Applications (2021) 7:29 ; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41540-021-00189-3 1234567890():,; NOBEL TURING CHALLENGE AS AN ULTIMATE GRAND EURISKO6,8.
    [Show full text]
  • Data for Peacebuilding and Prevention Ecosystem Mapping
    October 2020 DATA FOR PEACEBUILDING AND PREVENTION Ecosystem Mapping The State of Play and the Path to Creating a Com- munity of Practice Branka Panic ABOUT THE CENTER ON INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION The Center on International Cooperation (CIC) is a non-profit research center housed at New York University. Our vision is to advance effective multilateral action to prevent crises and build peace, justice, and inclusion. Our mission is to strengthen cooperative approaches among national governments, international organizations, and the wider policy community to advance peace, justice, and inclusion. Acknowledgments The NYU Center on International Cooperation is grateful for the support of the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs for this initiative. We also offer a special thanks to interviewees for their time and support at various stages of this research, and to an Expert Group convened to discuss the report findings: Bas Bijlsma, Christina Goodness, Gregor Reisch, Jacob Lefton, Lisa Schirch, Merve Hickok, Monica Nthiga, and Thierry van der Horst. CITATION: This report should be cited as: Branka Panic, Data for Peacebuilding and Prevention Ecosystem Mapping: The State of Play and the Path to Creating a Community of Practice (New York: NYU Center on International Cooperation, 2020). Contents Summary . 1 Terminology........................................................................ 4 Introduction: Objectives and Methodology ............................................. 5 Objectives.....................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Reflections on Artificial Intelligence, Speech Technology
    Proceedings from FONETIK 2019 Stockholm, June 10–12, 2019 Reflections on artificial intelligence, speech technology, brain imaging and phonetics Björn Lindblom Phonetics laboratory, Stockholm University, Sweden [email protected] Whither speech research? his blackboard: ‘What I cannot create I Broadly defined, the field of spoken lan- do not understand!’ (Gleick 1993). Let guage research is undergoing rapid us interpret this quote as a requirement change as a result of several factors. to be met by all good science. Let us call Computer technology can be used to it the Feynman criterion. If we apply it simulate interactive human speech com- to speech research, what do we find? munication in spectacularly diverse and First let us consider some recent realistic ways. achievements in speech technology. Since the 90’s sophisticated meth- On an almost daily basis, we hear ods have become increasingly available about new, often spectacular, artificial for imaging the real-time processes that intelligence (AI) developments. For in- take place in the brain during speaking, stance, some car models now have auto- listening and learning to speak. pilots. Medical diagnoses and treatments It would seem that the present situa- can be drastically improved thanks to tion offers speech research yet another vast data sets and clever methods that opportunity to expand its experimental detect patterns in the data that escape toolbox and orient itself towards neuro- even the most experienced expert. Fur- science with a view to acquiring a more thermore, law breakers get more easily profound understanding of the many caught with the aid of clever facial forms of language use under normal as recognition algorithms.
    [Show full text]
  • Towards Common-Sense Reasoning with Advanced NLP Architectures
    Towards Common-Sense Reasoning with Advanced NLP architectures Alex Movilă - November 2019 NLP in 2019 News – Scary advances - GPT-2 model makes press headlines February 2019: Researchers, scared by their own work, hold back “deep-fakes for text” AI OpenAI Trains Language Model, Mass Hysteria Ensues This New Storytelling AI Fools Humans 3 out of 5 Times With It’s Writing Artificial Intelligence Can Now Write Amazing Content - What Does That Mean For Humans? The first AI-generated textbook: "Lithium-Ion Batteries: A Machine-Generated Summary of Current Research" Oct 2019: Elon Musk-backed AI company releases its text-generating robot despite concerns it could be used to create fake news and spam GPT-2 generates convincing fake news Humans find GPT-2 outputs convincing. Our partners at Cornell University surveyed people to assign GPT-2 text a credibility score across model sizes. People gave the 1.5B model a “credibility score” of 6.91 out of 10. … extremist groups can use GPT-2 for misuse, specifically by fine-tuning GPT-2 models on four ideological positions: white supremacy, Marxism, jihadist Islamism, and anarchism. CTEC demonstrated that it’s possible to create models that can generate synthetic propaganda for these ideologies. GPT-2: 1.5B Release Google improved 10 percent of searches by understanding language context (with BERT) “how to catch a cow fishing?” Even though I had purposely used the word “fishing” to provide context, Google ignored that context and provided results related to cows. That was on October 1, 2019. Today, October 25, 2019 the same query results in search results that are full of striped bass and fishing related results.
    [Show full text]
  • AI) for Your Business
    5 Things You Should Know About Artificial Intelligence (AI) For Your Business The other day, as I drove into work I saw a mobile SaaS van. It wasn’t a technician driving around, in fact, it was not a mobile IT services company at all. It was all about Smoothies. There is a technological shift where the world is headed to XaaS (Replace the X with whatever you provide). Companies are headed to XaaS fast and they’re becoming extremely personalized. Some other examples are CaaS (Cookies as a Service) and Blue Apron (Meals as a Service). What about Stitch Fix (Clothing as a Service)? Stitch Fix is a REALLY interesting case study for those of us in technology. With a strong degree of accuracy, they can predict what clothing you’ll like, send you a collection of curated clothing items on a monthly basis, and have VERY FEW items returned. And, it’s all through a subscription model. Everybody talks about the Netflix AI that predicts the shows you should watch. And who can escape Siri & Alexa? It’s all based on data, predicting from that data, and learning from your successes and failures, hence AI. Artificial intelligence, though it’s advancing very quickly, is still in relatively early days. As you try to understand how your company can play a part in this AI evolution, here are some initial things to consider. DEFINE AI 1 AI means different things to different people. Customer support bots are being called AI but so is IBM’s Watson. Two very different things.
    [Show full text]
  • Francesca Bonin
    Curriculum vitae: Francesca Bonin Contacts [email protected] [email protected] http://researcher.watson.ibm.com/researcher/view.php?person=ie-FBONIN Highlights Research Scientist in Artificial Intelligence and NLP, orientated on Natural Language data. Currently leading a group of 5 researchers within IBM Research Europe in finding synergies between research goals and business goals for internal and external stakeholders. Helping in the definition of the internal team strategy. Education September 2011 – June 2016 PhD in Natural Language Processing School of Computer Science and Statistics, Trinity College Dublin (Ireland). Advisors: Dr. Carl Vogel and Prof. Nick Campbell. Focus: NLP, Dialogue Processing, Conversational Analysis, Multimodal Information Extraction, Social Signal Processing, Feature Engineering, Machine Learning. Publications: [1,2,3,4,5,6,9,10,12,13,14,16,17,18,19,20,21,22] September 2005- December 2007 M.Sc. in Computer Science for the Humanities. Major in Language Technologies University of Pisa (Italy). Thesis: Natural Language and Ontologies. Text Simplification for human machine interaction Grade: 110/110 with honors. Advisors: Prof. Alessandro Lenci, Raffaella Bernardi Focus: Natural Language Processing, Semantic Web, and Ontologies. Publications: [29] September 2001-June 2005 B.A. in Computer Science for the Humanities. Major in Linguistics University of Pisa (Italy). Thesis: A computational grammar for Italian functional analysis Grade: 110/110 with honors. Advisor: Prof. Alessandro Lenci. Focus: Natural Language Processing, Syntactic Parsing. Work experiences April 2018 – current IBM - Principal Investigator - Research Scientist IBM Ireland, Dublin, Ireland March 2021 Francesca Bonin Leading a group of 5 researchers towards project planning, stakeholder satisfaction and business definition.
    [Show full text]