SPACE ECONOMY 18 WORKFORCE 42 Q & A 10 GPS for deep space Smithsonian’s Stofan on diversity U.S. Rep. DeFazio on the pandemic SURVIVAL PLAN Airlines chart a long, slow path back from the pandemic. PAGE 24 MAY 2020 | A publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics | aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org 11–15 JANUARY 2021 | NASHVILLE, TN CALL FOR PAPERS The 2021 AIAA SciTech Forum will cover the science, technologies, and policies that are shaping the future of aviation and space. The 2021 forum theme, Accelerating Innovation Through Diversity, will explore the role and importance of diversity in advancing the aerospace industry. The diversifi cation of teams, industry sectors, technologies, design cycles, and perspectives can all be leveraged toward innovation. AIAA is soliciting papers in the following technical disciplines: › Aerospace Education › Inlets, Nozzles, and Propulsion Systems Integration › Applied Aerodynamics › Meshing, Visualization, and › Atmospheric and Space Computational Environments Environments › Propellants and Combustion › Communications Systems › Small Satellites › Computer Systems › Society and Aerospace › Design Engineering Technology › Digital Avionics › Software › Digital Engineering › Space Exploration › Flight Testing › Space Operations and › Fluid Dynamics Support › Green Engineering › Supersonics › Ground Testing › Survivability › Guidance, Navigation, and › Systems Engineering Control › Terrestrial Energy › High-Speed Air-Breathing › Transformational Flight Propulsion › Wind Energy › History › And More! › Information and Command and Control Systems SUBMIT AN ABSTRACT BY 8 JUNE 2020 AT 2000 HRS EST USA aiaa.org/SciTech/CFP FEATURES | May 2020 MORE AT aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org American Airlines American Airlines jets are parked at Tulsa International Airport, Okla., and fi ve other locations during the shutdown caused by the coronavirus. 18 32 42 24 GPS for lunar Taking charge of Opinion: Lifting Preparing missions space debris up STEM role models for takeoff Scientists are proving While the U.S. that GPS is a viable Congress and The National Air and tool for spacecraft the White House U.S. lawmakers and airlines are taking Space Museum is fl ying beyond the GPS wrestle over space working to uncover fi nancial and technical steps to revive airline constellation. traffi c management the stories of women and manufacturing businesses once the oversight, commercial who have helped move coronavirus is less of a threat. By Adam Hadhazy satellite operators are aerospace forward. stepping in. By Cat Hofacker By Ellen Stofan By Debra Werner aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org | MAY 2020 | 1 As an analyst and developer, Kevin knows the importance of location. Lately, he’s been eyeing some charming real estate 250 miles above Earth. DEVELOPER As a real estate developer and business analyst, Kevin Barry has big plans. Kevin is going to ASCEND, where he’ll share his vision for establishing the DIFFERENT infrastructure that’ll make life off Earth commonplace. ASCEND is all about big ideas and bringing together the people with the vision and those with the means and MISSIONS expertise to make it happen. You can read Kevin’s story at ascend.events/barry. Join Kevin and other entrepreneurs and visionaries at ASCEND. Save an extra $50 with code BARRY SHARED ascend.events 16–18 November 2020 | Las Vegas & online SPACE IN THIS ISSUE AEROSPACE★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ AMERICA MAY 2020, VOL. 58, NO. 5 EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Adam Hadhazy Ben Iannotta Adam reports on astrophysics and technology. His work has appeared in [email protected] Discover and New Scientist magazines. ASSOCIATE EDITOR PAGE 18 Karen Small [email protected] STAFF REPORTER Cat Hofacker OPINION Cat Hofacker [email protected] Cat joined Aerospace America as staff reporter in 2019 after an internship EDITOR, AIAA BULLETIN Christine Williams In his words: Don Kesslerat USA Today, where sheon covered the 2018 midterm elections. PAGES 10, 24 [email protected] orbital debris and pandemics CONTRIBUTING WRITERS BY DON KESSLER Adam Hadhazy, Amanda Miller, he math underlying the predictions in a pandemic and what is known Robert van der Linden, as the Kessler Syndrome can be expressed with similar equations. In each situation, the prediction depends onAmanda the frequency that Miller Debra Werner, some “Object” encounters a “Victim.” In a pandemic, the Object is a virus and the Victim is a person. In Earth Amandaorbit, the Object is a is freelancea reporter and editor based near Denver with 20 years Tlarge piece of debris and the Victim is a structure or another large item of de- Frank H. Winter bris. The frequency with which an Object hits a Victim is ofproportional experience to their at weekly and daily publications. speed relative to each another. If that were the only factor, then we would see a slow, linear increase in Victims with time. PAGE 14 John Langford AIAA PRESIDENT However, in each case, an Object that hits a Victim creates more Objects, each creating even more Victims, i.e., a cascading. This results in an exponential Daniel L. Dumbacher PUBLISHER increase in Victims with time — with much greater speed in a pandemic than in Katie Taplett DEPUTY PUBLISHER orbit, of course — and will continue until there are no longer any operational Don Kessler satellites in orbit or vulnerable people in a pandemic. established NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office in 1979 That’s the simple answer — the math is the same. The uncertainty in the A chart from NASA’s and continued researching equations is “Frequency.” In the pandemic, how quickly the virus transfers itself the topic until his retirement ADVERTISING Orbital Debris Program Office resembles the from an Object is determined by biology and by human behavior. in 1996. His calculations showing that cascading COVID-19 graphs that Thirty years ago, NASA formulated mitigation guidelinesDebra for orbital Wernerdebris [email protected] collisions could someday health officials refer to that have been adopted internationally. Other countries made the guidelines render entire orbits useless when explaining the mandatory, but NASA’s implementation has lagged. As a result, these measures virus’s spread. A frequent contributorbecame knownto Aerospace as the Kessler America, Debra is also a West Coast have failed to adequately slow the growth in the debris population. The same Syndrome. He now lives in NASA ART DIRECTION AND DESIGN results can be expected if the virus mitigations are notcorrespondent followed. for NorthSpace Carolina. News. THOR Design Studio | thor.design PAGES 32, 64 Familiar Monthly number of objects in Earth orbit by object type 20,000 MANUFACTURING AND DISTRIBUTION trajectory Total objects Fragmentation debris Association Vision | associationvision.com The increase in Spacecraft Mission-related debris amounts of orbital DEPARTMENTSRocket bodies debris corresponds LETTERS AND CORRESPONDENCE with Kessler Syndrome predictions. The 2007 Ben Iannotta, [email protected] spike is attributed to an anti-satellite weapon test in which China destroyed its OPINION nonoperational weath- NUMBER OF OBJECTS 40 er satellite; the 2009 Space debris and the coronavirus spike to the collision 5,000 of an operational Iridium satellite and a nonoperational Russian satellite. 0 1970 1980 1960 1990 CREDIT: NASA 2010 2020 2000 Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly YEAR except in August by the American Institute of Aeronautics 4 Editor’s Notebook and Astronautics, Inc., at 12700 Sunrise Valley Drive, Suite40 | MAY 2020 | aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org 8 10 200 Reston, VA 20191-5807 [703-264-7500]. Subscription 5 Letters rate is 50% of dues for AIAA members (and is not deductible AeroPuzzler Q & A therefrom). Nonmember subscription price: U.S., $200; Controlling the descent of U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio foreign, $220. Single copies $20 each. Postmaster: Send 7 Flight Path a helicopter on the effects of the address changes and subscription orders to Aerospace coronavirus and drone America, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 8 AeroPuzzler regulations at 12700 Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, VA, 20191-5807, Attn: A.I.A.A. Customer Service. Periodical postage 10 Q & A paid at Reston, Virginia, and at additional mailing 62 offi ces. Copyright 2020 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved. 14 Engineering Notebook Looking Back The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA U.S. Coast Guard makes 64 in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Offi ce. 49 AIAA Bulletin one of the fi rst helicopter Trajectories rescues From a youth taking 62 Looking Back apart electronics to a career as a manager at 64 Trajectories Embraer aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org | MAY 2020 | 3 EDITOR’S NOTEBOOK CORONAVIRUS Why the airlines must get it right upersonic fl ight, cleaner burning engines, biofuels and electric propulsion: These are among the exciting advances in aviation whose timing and perhaps fruition depend on airlines earning the trust of customers in the coming new reality. Inside the U.S. industry, we often hear about thought leaders and subject matter experts, but the coronavirus pandemic reminds us that it’s the actions of consumers that drive and Sdefi ne progress. Listening to health experts, it sounds like we’re headed for a future in which the current pandemic subsides but the danger from the virus persists. What happens then will be largely determined by our collective behaviors. For air travelers, those new behaviors are likely to extend beyond this pandemic. It no longer seems like a healthy choice to pack oneself onto a crowded plane. Airlines should be working now to prepare for this new reality, and I mean with more than social distanc- ing measures in boarding lines and hand sanitizer and bottled water on planes, as important as those are. The fi rst days of the outbreak offer a tough lesson about planning ahead. Airline executives at the March 5 Aviation Summit 2020 in Washington, D.C., like many of us, were slow to grasp the seriousness of the threat. “It’s a gut punch right now, but hopefully it will be short-lived,” said Gary Kelly, the CEO of Southwest Airlines.