Southern Political Science Association Preliminary Program 2018 Annual Meeting New Orleans, LA Version

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Southern Political Science Association Preliminary Program 2018 Annual Meeting New Orleans, LA Version Southern Political Science Association Preliminary Program 2018 Annual Meeting New Orleans, LA Version 1.0 2100 2100 Challenges and Opportunities for Mentoring Undergraduate Research: A Faculty-Student Roundtable Thursday Undergraduate Research and Training 8:00am-9:30am Participants Geoffrey Peterson, University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire Bruce Anderson, Associate Professor, Southern Florida College Zachary Baumann, Florida Southern College Chair Carol Strong, University of Arkansas - Monticello With faculty and former students from a variety of institutions, our roundtable explores the challenges and opportunities for mentoring undergraduate research. Faculty will discuss departmental and institutional initiatives to promote undergraduate research opportunities. The former students will talk about the benefits they received from the experience and how it has prepared them for graduate school and the workforce. The roundtable will examine best practices and lessons learned from mentoring undergraduate political science research. Furthermore, the roundtable will identify resources, such as the Council on Undergraduate Research, that are available to faculty who are novices or veterans at mentoring undergraduate research. Audience participation and feedback will be encouraged throughout the discussion. 2100 Environmental politcs Thursday International Politics: Global Issues and IPE 8:00am-9:30am Chair Clint Peinhardt, University of Texas at Dallas Participants An Unexpected Partnership: Explaining Why Firms and NGOs Collaborate in Private Environmental Governance James Heilman, University of Massachusetts Amherst Decolonizing concepts: Exploring the conceptualization of climate justice, women’s empowerment, and happiness Chesney McOmber, University of Florida Karla Mundim, University of Florida Saskia A van Wees, University of Florida Examination of process on changing norms and actors in global environmental governance: A Japan's case Masatoshi Yokota, Tokyo University of Science Understanding China’s Evolving Role in Global Environmental Governance Saskia A van Wees, University of Florida The Impact of Women’s Participation on Sustainable Development Efforts in the Liberian Agriculture Industry Teaway Zehyoue Collins, Southern University and A&M College Discussant Clint Peinhardt, University of Texas at Dallas 2100 2100 Deliberation and Democratic Theory Thursday Democratic Participation & Civic Engagement 8:00am-9:30am Chair Phil Parvin, Loughborough university Participants Democracy without participation: A new politics for a disengaged era Phil Parvin, Loughborough university Talking to the Misinformed: How Politicians Communicate with Constituents who Lack Accurate Information D.J. Flynn, Dartmouth College The Politics of Language: Changing the Discourse during the Trump Presidency Mehnaaz Momen, Texas A&M International University Transforming Social Theory with Dereification and Reflective Practice David V. Edwards, University of Texas at Austin Foundations of Distrust: The State of Political Trust in The Federalist Stephanie Ahrens, University of Chicago Discussant Se-Hyoung Yi, University of Houston-Clear Lake 2100 Comparative Politics, Courts, and Democratization Thursday Judicial Politics 8:00am-9:30am Chair Vanessa Baird, Professor Participants Civil Courts and Authoritarian Stability Margaret Hanson, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Perception of Procedural Justice and Judicial Legitimacy in China Dong Erico Yu, University of Iowa When can transitional justice be implemented in democratic governments? : Focusing on the process of democratization in South Korea In sul Park, Kyungpook National University Daeweon Seo, Kyungpook National University Discussant William M Myers, University of Tampa 2100 2100 Taxation and Economic Policy in the States Thursday State Politics 8:00am-9:30am Chair Shawn J Donahue, Binghamton University (SUNY) Participants Do Economic Measures at the State Level Drive Terrorism within the United States? Jeffrey Payne, University of Central Florida Kansas and California: A Contemporary Investigation into Reaganomics Alexander Myles Freedman, Tulane University Responding to an Economic Crisis: Gubernatorial Budgetary Authority and Social Assistance Spending Jeffrey V Swanson, Florida State University The Political Economy of Taxes that Governors Propose and Legislatures Dispose Richard Winters, Dartmouth College Carlisle Rainey, Texas A&M Kevin Stout, Univ of New York at Buffalo Discussant Seth C. McKee, Texas Tech University 2100 Middle East Policy Thursday International Politics: Conflict and Security 8:00am-9:30am Chair Albert Wolf, American University of Afghanistan Participants Iraqi Foreign Policy and Iran: Bandwagoning or Balancing? Clifton W Sherrill, Troy University The Iraq War and the Republican Party’s Traditional Foreign Policy: Accord or Discord? Bobby Lint, University of West Florida The misperception of Iranian foreign policy by both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama Clinton Lamar Ervin, American Military University Who Lost Iraq?: Competing Narratives for U.S. Foreign Policy Failure Kelly McHugh, Florida Southern College Discussant Albert Wolf, American University of Afghanistan 2100 2100 Political Inequality: Who Gets Represented? Thursday Class and Inequality 8:00am-9:30am Participants Economic Segregation and Unequal Policy Responsiveness Patrick Flavin, Baylor University William W. Franko, West Virginia University (Un)equal Representation in Low Inequality Contexts? Mads Andreas Elkjaer, University of Southern Denmark Are the Rich Always Better Represented than the Poor? Income- and Party-Stratified Policy Representation in the U.S. Senate Elizabeth Rigby, George Washington University Cory Maks-Solomon, George Washington University Discussants Matt Grossmann, Michigan State University John Kuk, Washington University in St Louis 2100 Parties without Borders: Examining Comparative Party Competition Thursday Political Parties 8:00am-9:30am Chair Matthew Wagner, University of South Carolina Participants Statistical Nightmare of Causal Feedback: How Spatial Econometric Improves Empirical Evaluations of Party Competition Brandon Beomseob PARK, University of Missouri Laron K. Williams, University of Missouri Ed Goldring, University of Missouri Social Cleavages in New Democracies: An Application of the Lipset-Rokkan Paradigm Matthew Wagner, University of South Carolina The Death of the Catch-All Party? Rethinking Party Strategy in the 21st Century John Ishiyama, University of North Texas Christopher Williams, University of Arkansas at Little Rock Parties, platforms and populism: Party organization in an era of online-decision making Alberto Lioy, University of Oregon Democracy and Caste Politics in India: A Study in Andhra Pradesh Dr. SATRI VEERA KESALU, UNIVERSITY OF HYDERABAD Discussants Christopher Williams, University of Arkansas at Little Rock Alberto Lioy, University of Oregon 2100 2100 CW11 Emergency Management: Theories and Evidence Thursday Conference Within A Conference 8:00am-9:30am Participants Policy Entrepreneurs and Disaster Policy: Testing the Influence of Entrepreneurs on Lawmakers Sarah Anderson, University of California Santa Barbara Robert DeLeo, Bentley University Kristin O'Donovan, Wayne State University Partial Couplings, Issue Linkage, and Multiple Partial Couplings Dana Archer Dolan, George Mason University Exploring the applicability of the Multiple Streams Framework to a non-democracy: Legal change in China after SARS and A(H7N9) avian influenza Annemieke van den Dool, University of Amsterdam Demographic Drivers of the Spread of Tornado Warning Information Scott Robinson, University of Oklahoma Jason Pudlo, University of Oklahoma Wesley Wehde, University of Oklahoma Narratives in the Policy Process: Hurricane Katrina as a Condensation Symbol Meg Warnement, North Carolina State University The 2018 mini-conference builds on the success of 2017’s CWC on hazards governance and growing scholarly attention to disasters, first responders, emergency management, and politics. We aim to showcase outstanding scholarship on emergency management, disasters, and politics, providing a venue for scholars to present their research, strengthen their network, and shape future hazards and disaster politics research across the social sciences via theoretically informed, methodologically rigorous empirical work. We hope this and subsequent conferences will motivate scholars of emergency management, hazards, and disaster politics to advance theoretical insights, work with generalizable theories, and use innovative and illuminating empirical methods and data. 2100 Latina/os in 2016: The Politics of Threat Thursday Race, Ethnicity, and Gender 8:00am-9:30am Chair Eric Juenke, Michigan State University Participants Assessing survey measures of Latino Racial Resentment Mark D Ramirez, Arizona State University Dave A.M. Peterson, Iowa State University Back in the Shadows, Back in the Streets Melissa R Michelson, Menlo College Jessica L Lavariega Monforti, California Lutheran University Exploring Public Attitudes Towards Sanctuary Cities Jason Casellas, University of Houston Sophia Jordan Wallace, Universiyt of Washington Latinos por Trump: Colorblind Latinos and racial appeals Rudy Alamillo, University of California, Riverside Media Coverage from the States: How the Tone of Media Reporting Changes as Demographics Shift Raul Madrid Jr., Claremont Graduate University Discussants Eric Juenke, Michigan State University Johanna Dunaway, Texas A&M University 2100 2100 Executive
Recommended publications
  • 2019 Preliminary Program Southern Political Science Association January 17-19, Austin
    2019 Preliminary Program Southern Political Science Association January 17-19, Austin v. 5.0 January 8, 2019 2138 2138 Thursday Registration Thursday Meetings 7:30am-6:00pm 2108 Causes and consequences of judicial review Thursday Judicial Politics 8:00am-9:20am Chair Meghan E. Leonard, Illinois State University Participants Are We Alone In Our Concern About Judicial Review? Attitudes of Elected Officials Towards Judicial Review Kyle Morgan, Rutgers University A Survey of Federal Judges' Views on Redistricting Mark Jonathan McKenzie, Texas Tech University Severability Clauses and the Exercise of Judicial Review Garrett Vande Kamp, Texas A&M University Justiciability: Examining Separation of Powers and Institutional Motivations for Dodging Disputes H. Chris Tecklenburg, Georgia Southern Discussants Richard Pacelle, University of Tennessee Jordan Carr Peterson, Texas Christian University 2110 2110 After the Violence: Local Attitudes and Behavior Thursday International Politics: Conflict and Security 8:00am-9:20am Chair Pellumb Kelmendi, Auburn University Participants Caring for the Self and the Other: Compassion Training in Post Conflict Societies Alexa Royden, Queens University of Charlotte How does Terrorism Impact Public Foreign Policy Attitudes? Andrea Malji, Hawaii Pacific University Ngoc Phan, Hawaii Pacific University The Impact of Exposure to Terrorism on the Likelihood of Political Participation Cigdem Unal, University of Pittsburgh The Specter of Qaddafi's Failure: Where Libya’s Path to Reputational Recovery went Wrong and What Alternatives Exist for Others to Follow Matthew Clary, Auburn University 2111 Retrospective Voting Thursday Electoral Politics 8:00am-9:20am Chair Linda Trautman, Ohio University Participants Assessing the timelessness of retrospective and pocketbook voting Thomas Gray, University of Texas at Dallas Daniel Smith, University of Maryland It’s Not Economics, Stupid: Class, Region, and the Social Dimension’s Effect on Changes in White Political Behavior M.
    [Show full text]
  • What Is the “College-Educated Voter”?
    What is the “College-Educated Voter”? A Framework for Analysis and Discussion Of 2020 Voter Data. Irene Harwarth, PhD Cynthia Miller, PhD [email protected] [email protected] Harwarth and Miller 2 Abstract The 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections brought unprecedented attention to political polling and especially to analysis of voter preferences by education level. In addition to affecting collection of voter data, how a survey defines and categorizes college attendance and completion and whether participants are presented with levels to define their educational attainment or whether they self-identify, can also affect analysis of voter data collected in surveys of voter preference. This paper examines the current polls leading up to the 2020 election and the impact that defining education may have on predicting outcomes. Keywords: Election Polling, Polling variables, Presidential Election, Voting, Education, College- educated. Harwarth and Miller 3 The 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections brought unprecedented attention to political polling and especially to analysis of voter preferences by education level. Americans widely viewed the presidential polling in 2016 as problematic as most polls predicted a Democratic win contradictory to the eventual election results. The quality of political polling received more attention in 2018 and was the focus of several articles not only in academic journals but also in the mainstream media from 2017 through 2020.1 2 3 4 While there is evidence that presidential polling at the national level in the 2016 election was close to the results of the popular vote, the swing states (those that swung the Electoral College), were not accurately predicted in their polling.
    [Show full text]
  • At Electoral Crossroads ******** an Analysis of U.S
    At Electoral Crossroads ******** An Analysis of U.S. Federal Elections Since 1984 With November 2020 In Mind ******** An Amor Mundi K. J. O’Meara Report October 2020 Amor Mundi (online) Homepage: www.theamormundi.com At Electoral Crossroads: An Analysis of Federal Elections Since 1984 With November 2020 In Mind K. J. O’Meara To cite this report: K. J. O’Meara (2020) ‘At Electoral Crossroads: An Analysis of Federal Elections Since 1984 With November 2020 In Mind’, Amor Mundi, theamormundi.com, https://theamormundi .com/2020/11/01/at-electoral-crossroads-an-analysis-of-federal-elections-since-1984-with-november- 2020-in-mind/ To link this report: https://theamormundi.com/2020/11/01/at-electoral-crossroads-an-analysis-of- federal-elections-since-1984-with-november-2020-in-mind/ Date of Publication: 31st October 2020 Contents 2020 - A Unique Election: An Introduction………………………….1. I. The Presidency……………………………………………………..9. II. Congress………………………………………...……………….42. Conclusion – The Electoral Crossroads…………………………….63. Appendix……………………………………………….………………………68. Acknowledgements…………………………………………………….……....90. About the Author………………………………………………………………90. 2020 - A Unique Election: An Introduction “As the select assemblies for choosing the President, as well as the State legislatures who appoint the senators, will in general be composed of the most enlightened and respectable citizens, there is reason to presume that their attention and their votes will be directed to those men only who have become the most distinguished by their abilities and virtue, and
    [Show full text]
  • Chicago Debates High School Core Files 2019-2020
    Chicago Debates High School Core Files 2019-2020 Resolution: The United States federal government should substantially reduce Direct Commercial Sales and/or Foreign Military Sales of arms from the U.S. Table of Contents —Chicago Debates High School Core Files 2019-2020 Table of Contents Note: This year’s Core Files are divided into affirmative and negative materials. From there, affirmative and negative are divided into on-case and off-case. Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................................................. 2 Red/Maroon Conference Argument Limits ....................................................................................................................... 6 Blue/Silver Conference Argument Limits .......................................................................................................................... 7 Ukraine AFFIRMATIVE (Rookie/Novice – Beginner) ........................................................................................................... 8 Plan .............................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Contention 1 - Inherency ............................................................................................................................................ 10 Contention 2 is Harms – Ukraine Crisis ......................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • 2019 SPSA Preliminary Program
    2019 SPSA Preliminary Program Created: October 22, 2018 2100 2100 Democratic Theory and Republicanism Thursday Political Theory 8:00am-9:20am Chair Arturo Chang Quiroz, Northwestern University Participants Agonism, Democracy, and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 Micah Akuezue, UCLA A Republican Rationale for the Indian State to Retract its Declaration to Article 5(a) of the CEDAW Shritha K Vasudevan, University of Florida Between Tyranny and Technocracy: John Dewey's Liberal Democratic Alternative Michelle Chun, Columbia University Discussant Arturo Chang Quiroz, Northwestern University 2100 Causes and consequences of judicial review Thursday Judicial Politics 8:00am-9:20am Chair Meghan E. Leonard, Illinois State University Participants Are We Alone In Our Concern About Judicial Review? Attitudes of Elected Officials Towards Judicial Review Kyle Morgan, Rutgers University A Survey of Federal Judges' Views on Redistricting Mark Jonathan McKenzie, Texas Tech University Reading the Tea Leaves: The Future of Administrative Law in U.S. Supreme Court Jurisprudence. John M. Aughenbaugh, Virginia Commonwealth University Severability Clauses and the Exercise of Judicial Review Garrett Vande Kamp, Texas A&M University Justiciability: Examining Separation of Powers and Institutional Motivations for Dodging Disputes H. Chris Tecklenburg, Georgia Southern Discussants Richard Pacelle, University of Tennessee Jordan Carr Peterson, Texas Christian University 2100 2100 Communication meets Political Science: Cross-Disciplinary Perspectives on Social Media
    [Show full text]
  • Dr. Richard L. Vining, Jr. Curriculum Vitae February 10, 2020
    Dr. Richard L. Vining, Jr. Curriculum Vitae February 10, 2020 Address 180 Baldwin Hall E-mail: [email protected] Department of Political Science Home phone: 706-296-3269 University of Georgia Athens, GA 30602 Education • Ph.D. in political science, Emory University, 2008. o Dissertation: Pensions, Perks, and Politics: Departures from the U.S. Courts of Appeals o Dissertation Committee: Thomas Walker (chair), Micheal Giles, Randall Strahan • M.A. in political science, Emory University, 2005. • B.A., summa cum laude, Southeast Missouri State University, 2001. o Major: political science [Minor: philosophy] Additional Training • ICPSR Summer Program in Quantitative Methods, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 2002. o Mathematics for Social Scientists II, MLE for Generalized Linear Models • Teaching Assistant Training and Teaching Opportunity (TATTO) Program, Emory University, Summer 2003; Departmental supplement Fall 2003-Spring 2004. Research and Teaching Interests • Judicial politics • American political institutions • Public law • Research methods/measurement • American political development • Legislative politics • State politics • Media Research and Publications Peer-Reviewed Publications • “Judicial Reform in the American States: The Chief Justice as Political Advocate.” With Teena Wilhelm, Ethan D. Boldt, and Bryan M. Black. State Politics & Policy Quarterly. Forthcoming. • “Succession, Opportunism, and Rebellion on State Supreme Courts: Decisions to Run for Chief Justice.” With Teena Wilhelm and Emily Wanless. 2019. Justice System Journal. 40: 286-301. • “Examining State of the Judiciary Addresses: A Research Note.” With Teena Wilhelm, Ethan Boldt, and Allison Trochesset. 2019. Justice System Journal. 40: 158-69. • “The Chief Justice as Effective Administrative Leader: The Impact of Policy Scope and Interbranch Relations.” With David A. Hughes and Teena Wilhelm.
    [Show full text]
  • Hyperpartisan Campaign Finance
    Emory Law Journal Volume 70 Issue 5 2021 Hyperpartisan Campaign Finance Michael S. Kang Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/elj Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Michael S. Kang, Hyperpartisan Campaign Finance, 70 Emory L. J. 1171 (2021). Available at: https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/elj/vol70/iss5/4 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at Emory Law Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Emory Law Journal by an authorized editor of Emory Law Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. KANG_6.22.21 6/22/2021 11:37 AM HYPERPARTISAN CAMPAIGN FINANCE Michael S. Kang ABSTRACT Hyperpartisanship dominates modern American politics and government, but today’s politics are strikingly different from the preceding period of American history, a Cold War Era when bipartisanship and ideological moderation predominated. Hyperpartisanship was not the salient dynamic in American politics when campaign finance law began, and as a result, campaign finance law developed under strikingly different assumptions about American politics than the current prevailing circumstances. Today’s campaign finance law, inherited from this preceding era, is thus mismatched to the campaign finance of today. Campaign finance law focuses on individual candidates as the central actors in fundraising and misses the role of parties in organizing the campaign finance landscape. It therefore both systematically underestimates the risk that parties pose in collectivizing the potential for campaign finance corruption and overestimates the First Amendment values promoted by modern campaign finance when the parties today focus so heavily on mobilizing their base and preaching to the choir.
    [Show full text]
  • Redefining Electability New Insights About Voters, ‘Good’ Candidates
    GETTY IMAGES/RAYMOND BOYD GETTY IMAGES/RAYMOND Redefining Electability New Insights About Voters, ‘Good’ Candidates, and What It Takes To Win By Judith Warner August 2020 WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG Contents 1 Introduction and summary 5 Women have a record of success in U.S. elections— despite false narratives 9 Electability in a polarized age 11 Getting out in front of voters—and getting voters to show up 13 Recommendations 18 Conclusion 19 About the author and acknowledgments 20 Endnotes Introduction and summary In a period of nonstop fear, loss, and pain, there they were: female leaders around the globe, stepping up and making headlines as the new faces of crisis management. In the United States, in the wake of George Floyd’s death at the hands of Minneapolis police, they were Black women mayors: San Francisco Mayor London Breed (D), Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D), Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D), and Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser (D). Overseas, they were female heads of state, winning international accolades for their deft handling of the coronavirus crisis: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand, who lifted the country’s lockdown and celebrated the eradication of the disease in her nation as American deaths from COVID-19 passed the 100,000 benchmark;1 Mette Frederiksen and Erna Solberg, the female prime ministers of Denmark and Norway, respectively, who were celebrated for the speed and efficiency with which they had shut down their countries and cared for their people;2 and Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, who was so successful in imposing fast and effective disease-containment measures that her country was widely hailed as a COVID-19 “success story.”3 News reports repeatedly flagged the down-to-earth empathy and efficiency of these and other female leaders whose nations had exceptionally low coronavirus fatality rates, contrasting their successes with the dismal records of reality-fleeing “strongmen”4 such as Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.5 Meanwhile, back in the United States, Michigan Gov.
    [Show full text]
  • A Study of the Modern Progressive Movement
    Missouri University of Science and Technology Scholars' Mine Undergraduate Research Conference at Missouri S&T Apr 27th, 2021 - 1:15 PM A study of the modern progressive movement Anthony Watson Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarsmine.mst.edu/ugrc Part of the History Commons Watson, Anthony, "A study of the modern progressive movement" (2021). Undergraduate Research Conference at Missouri S&T. 1. https://scholarsmine.mst.edu/ugrc/2021/full-schedule/1 This Presentation is brought to you for free and open access by Scholars' Mine. It has been accepted for inclusion in Undergraduate Research Conference at Missouri S&T by an authorized administrator of Scholars' Mine. This work is protected by U. S. Copyright Law. Unauthorized use including reproduction for redistribution requires the permission of the copyright holder. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Introduction The “Progressive era” of American politics, which spanned from the 1890s to 1920s and included memorable political figures such as presidents Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson, introduced politicians and public figures who believed in “the Hamiltonian concept of positive government” and a national government that had to extend its powers past the “strict construction of the Constitution by conservative judges” in order to “act against social evils and to extend the blessings of democracy to less favored lands.”1 There is a major difference between capital ‘P’ Progressives, who lived during the Progressive era, and modern-day self-proclaimed progressives (lower-case ‘p’). Thomas C. Leonard, in his interview with Matthew Harwood for The American Conservative, proclaims that there is little that connects modern progressives to their ideological ancestors from the Progressive era of history, as “Today’s progressives emphasize racial equality and minority rights, decry U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • It's Aspen Ideas to Go, from the Aspen Institute. I'm Tricia Johnson. the 2020 Presidential Election Has a Unique Backdrop
    Tricia Johnson: It's Aspen Ideas To Go, from the Aspen Institute. I'm Tricia Johnson. The 2020 Presidential Election has a unique backdrop. Not only are voters influenced by deep partisan divides and a growing distrust of government, they're also weighing America's response to a deadly pandemic that has plunged the country into a recession. Rachel Bitecofer is a political scientist. She says this year is different for the Trump campaign. Rachel Bitecofer: In 2016, it was about burning the world and revolution, right? And now people just want to watch Monday Night Football in peace and not die. Tricia Johnson: What's in store for the November Election? Do the results hinge on swing voters? Aspen Ideas To Go brings you compelling conversation from the Aspen Institute, which drives change through dialogue, leadership and action, to help solve our greatest challenges. Today's discussion is from the McCloskey Speaker Series held by Aspen Community Programs. Rachel Bitecofer accurately predicted the 2018 Midterm Elections with a revolutionary new theory. Swing voters matter far less than most experts think. Instead, turning out new voters drives election results. So what will get people to mark their ballots? "The motivators may include strong party loyalty and exhaustion with the pandemic and systemic racism," says Tamara Keith. She covers the Whitehouse for NPR. Keith and Bitecofer sit down with Dan Glickman, who leads the Aspen Institute's Congressional Program. He served in Congress for 18 years. Here's Glickman. Dan Glickman: Rachel, you've been referred to as an election nerd, maybe you refer to yourself that way.
    [Show full text]
  • The 2020 U.S. Presidential Race: Mobilize the Base Or Persuade Swing Voters?
    Claremont Colleges Scholarship @ Claremont Pomona Senior Theses Pomona Student Scholarship 2020 The 2020 U.S. Presidential Race: Mobilize the Base or Persuade Swing Voters? Jonathan Miller Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.claremont.edu/pomona_theses Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Miller, Jonathan, "The 2020 U.S. Presidential Race: Mobilize the Base or Persuade Swing Voters?" (2020). Pomona Senior Theses. 234. https://scholarship.claremont.edu/pomona_theses/234 This Open Access Senior Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Pomona Student Scholarship at Scholarship @ Claremont. It has been accepted for inclusion in Pomona Senior Theses by an authorized administrator of Scholarship @ Claremont. For more information, please contact [email protected]. 1 The 2020 U.S. Presidential Race: Mobilize the Base or Persuade Swing Voters? Jonathan Miller Thesis for a Major in Philosophy, Politics, & Economics Professor Malte Dold Professor John Seery April 22nd, 2020 2 Thank you to all who tolerate my constant injection of Politics into everyday conversation. It is much appreciated. 3 Table of Contents Introduction 4 Turnout vs. Persuasion Part One 9 The Persuasion Strategy Chapter One 12 1.1 Political Analysis Chapter Two 17 1.2 Economic Analysis Part Two 22 The Base Strategy Chapter One 24 2.1 Political Analysis Chapter Two 31 2.2 Economic Analysis Part Three 36 A Third Way Chapter One 38 3.1 Political Analysis Chapter Two 47 3.2 Economic Analysis Part Four 50 Normative Implications & Conclusion References 54 4 Introduction Turnout vs. Persuasion Following Donald Trump’s unprecedented upset victory in the 2016 U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • 2020 Presidential Election Predictors
    FORECAST ERROR: 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREDICTORS By Timothy Martyn Hill. Edited version published online at https://www.significancemagazine.com/705 PART 0: TAGLINE The Republican President Donald John Trump lost the popular vote to his Democratic rival Joseph Robinette Biden and received 232 electoral votes to Biden’s 306 when the Electoral College met in December 2020. Timothy Martyn Hill reviews the predictions - and the errors - that were made PART 1: THE ELECTION Early in 2020 the 45th President of the United States Donald J. Trump looked forward to the coming election. A billionaire property developer who had acceded to the presidency after a surprise win in 2016, he anticipated winning his second election as most sitting first-term Presidents do. Then the pandemic happened. In a remarkable November 3rd election in which earlier postal votes played an unprecedented role, President Trump’s on-the-day lead was worn away as the postal votes were laboriously counted. Despite repeated legal challenges, the individual states certified their votes one-by-one and Joseph R. Biden won the Electoral College when it met in December 2020. Billions of dollars had been spent, modellers had predicted, bookies had taken bets, pollsters had polled. Which of them had predicted the outcome and how far out had they done so? This article sets out to answer that question, by analysing the performance of pollsters, seat and vote modellers, and betting firms all the way up to election day 2020. PART 2: ASSESSMENT To assess the performances of predictors, we convert all predictions made to a two-party-forced format, meaning that the predictions for undecided voters, "don’t knows", and third-party and independent candidates will be proportionally reallocated to the official Democratic and Republican candidates for president.
    [Show full text]