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An Outlook of Utility and Residential Solar Photovoltaic Growth Potential in Alberta From University of Calgary PRISM: University of Calgary's Digital Repository Graduate Studies Graduate Capstones 2020-08 An Outlook of Utility and Residential Solar Photovoltaic Growth Potential in Alberta from Polanowski, Peter Polanowski, P. (2020). An Outlook of Utility and Residential Solar Photovoltaic Growth Potential in Alberta from (Unpublished master's project). University of Calgary, Calgary, AB. http://hdl.handle.net/1880/112634 report University of Calgary graduate students retain copyright ownership and moral rights for their thesis. You may use this material in any way that is permitted by the Copyright Act or through licensing that has been assigned to the document. For uses that are not allowable under copyright legislation or licensing, you are required to seek permission. Downloaded from PRISM: https://prism.ucalgary.ca UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY An Outlook of Utility and Residential Solar Photovoltaic Growth Potential in Alberta from 2020-2030 By Peter Polanowski A RESEARCH PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE GRADUATE PROGRAM IN SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CALGARY, ALBERTA AUGUST, 2020 © Peter Polanowski 2020 Abstract In this paper, I present a review of literature assessing the key factors in solar PV adoption, while also estimating installed capacity for utility-scale and residential PV installations across Alberta by 2030. Several economic and socio-demographic variables are known to contribute to solar photovoltaic (PV) distribution, such as the resource availability, installed costs, household median income, policy instruments and the availability of financial incentives. Total employment potential from resulting estimates suggest that over 17, 000 jobs (in job-years) can be created in construction and installation of solar PV installations across the province. Resulting GHG avoided emissions were also calculated from projected installed utility-scale projects. Taken together, these results will help policymakers in what policy measures can be taken to facilitate further growth in the industry, as well as provide training organizations foresight on where best to apply training programs for workers transitioning to the renewable energy economy. Key words: Solar photovoltaic Installations GHG emissions Job growth ii Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the following people and organizations for their support in this project: • Dr. Irene Herremans – Thank you for your continuous feedback, support and motivation, especially during challenging times. • Dr. Ganesh Doulaweerawatta – Thank you for supervising this project and your continuous feedback. • Adam Lynes-Ford and Iron & Earth – Thank you Adam for spurring interest in this project and enabling me to contribute to Iron & Earth’s research. • Crystal Hickey – Thank you for motivating me to ‘stick with the program’. • Kelvin Tan – Thank you for your support and feedback throughout the project. iii Table of Contents Approval Page ................................................................................................................................................ i Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ ii Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................................ iv List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................ vi List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................... vi List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................... vii Chapter 1 - Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Interdisciplinary Research Areas ........................................................................................................ 2 1.2 Research Objectives ........................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Solar PV Systems ................................................................................................................................ 3 Chapter 2 - Related Literature ..................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Solar resource availability .................................................................................................................. 5 2.2 Economic Factors ............................................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Policy and Incentive Programs ........................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Socio-demographic factors affecting residential solar PV installations ........................................... 12 2.5 Variables affecting commercial, community and utility-scale projects ........................................... 14 Chapter 3 – Solar PV Job Growth Potential ............................................................................................... 15 3.1 Current trends in solar PV job growth ............................................................................................. 15 3.2 Methods to analyze job creation potential of solar PV ................................................................... 15 iv 3.4 Solar PV value chain job distribution ............................................................................................... 18 3.5 Research Gaps ................................................................................................................................. 19 Chapter 4 - Methodology and data collection ........................................................................................... 20 4.1 AESO Project List Methodology and Data Collection – Utility-Scale, centralized and distribution- connected projects .................................................................................................................................... 20 4.2 Residential PV Methodology and Data collection ............................................................................ 25 Chapter 5 - Results and Analysis ................................................................................................................ 28 5.1 AESO Project List results .................................................................................................................. 28 5.2 Residential Solar PV results ............................................................................................................. 31 Chapter 6 - Conclusion, Limitations and Future Research ......................................................................... 34 6.1 Limitations ....................................................................................................................................... 34 6.2 Future Research ............................................................................................................................... 35 6.3 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 37 References ................................................................................................................................................. 40 Appendix A – July 2020 AESO Project List: All solar PV installations ......................................................... 53 Appendix B - Census Data for Albertan Population Centres ..................................................................... 56 v List of Tables Table 1: Installed Capacity and employment figures from AESO Project List analysis .............................. 30 Table 2: Results of Rooftop residential PV installed capacity figures ........................................................ 31 Table 3: Installed capacity and job figures results for residential rooftop PV ........................................... 33 List of Figures Figure 1: Alberta Solar Resources Map ........................................................................................................ 6 Figure 2: Total PV system cost benchmarks from 2010-2018 in U.S. inflation-adjusted prices .................. 7 Figure 3: U.S. Solar Employment by Sector ............................................................................................... 19 Figure 4: AESO Transmission Planning Areas ............................................................................................. 23 Figure 5: AESO Project List – Projected Installed Capacity by Planning Area (MW) .................................. 29 Figure 6: Avoided GHG emissions from AESO Solar PV Projects – 2020-2045 (Mt CO2) ........................... 29 Figure 7: Alberta Population Centres with annual average capacity factors >13% and median income > $36,000. ....................................................................................................................................................
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