ISSUE BRIEF No. 3603 | MAY 14, 2012

Scarborough Shoal and Safeguarding American Interests Walter Lohman

or a month, the Philippines and home early in the conflict, as has the Philippines at Chinese ports raise Fthe People’s Republic of China Philippine naval vessel that sought concerns that it intends to try. (PRC) have been deadlocked in a sov- to apprehend them. Sending a naval As things stand, two Chinese ereignty dispute off the Philippine vessel to deal with a law enforcement marine surveillance ships and a main island of Luzon, around issue was either a tactical mistake1 fisheries patrol ship remain in the Scarborough Shoal. The situation, or, as the Philippine government area today, as do two Filipino public which began with a Philippine war- maintains, a matter of expediency vessels, one from the coast guard and ship challenging private Chinese for a nation strapped for maritime the other from the Philippines’ own poachers in the waters around the resources. Either way, a subsequent fisheries bureau. Dozens of Chinese shoal, has evolved into something on decision by Philippine authorities fishing vessels are also reported to be which no less than the credibility of not to return it to the disputed area in the area. America’s commitment to peace and after replenishment was a gesture There is a very basic calculation security in the Pacific hinges. intended to de-escalate the conflict. involved here: The first to leave the The U.S. has two major interests On the PRC side, the state media shoal will be perceived as ceding at stake in the impasse: the security have been in hypernationalist mode. sovereignty. of treaty allies and freedom of navi- Rumors of war preparations (denied America’s Treaty Obligations gation. If the Obama Administration by the PRC Ministry of National to an Ally. The U.S. has long been mishandles this situation, all the Defense) and unconfirmed media neutral on the sovereignty issues “pivoting” (to the Pacific) in the world reports of PLA Navy warships en involved in the South China Sea. will not make up for it. route toward the Philippines2 have This is as it should be. It would be Standoff over Sovereignty. The only added to the sense of crisis. The folly for the U.S. to cast its support Chinese fishing boats that pre- Chinese Foreign Ministry contin- for the disputed territorial claims of cipitated the crisis left the shoal for ues to publicly declare its sovereign any party, even that of an ally. rights to Scarborough Shoal and the The South China Sea is a maze of waters around it. It has summoned conflicting territorial claims involv- the Philippine chargé d’affaires three ing six active claimants. Only one This paper, in its entirety, can be found at times to protest. And although it of these claimants—the PRC—is a http://report.heritage.org/ib3603 remains to be seen whether the PRC competitor for American predomi- Produced by the Asian Studies Center can successfully leverage its consid- nance in the Western Pacific. In fact, The Heritage Foundation erable economic strength in such the others are all, to one extent or 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002 diplomatic disputes, suspension of another, part of the American strat- (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org tours to the Philippines by Chinese egy to maintain a balance of power Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily tourist agencies and increased scru- in the region capable of restraining reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill tiny of agricultural imports from the Chinese ambitions. before Congress. ISSUE BRIEF | NO. 3603 MAY 14, 2012

This is not to say, however, that recognized borders subject to the common dangers.” The attack trig- the U.S. is neutral in the current treaty. In the current month-long gers formal bilateral consultations standoff between the PRC and standoff, the third part of this equa- under the treaty to determine an the Philippines. America has very tion is very much in play. appropriate course of action. (There specific treaty obligations to the In 1979, American Secretary is nothing uniquely tentative about Philippines, and other treaty allies of State Cyrus Vance confirmed the U.S.–Philippines MDT in this in the Pacific are assuredly watching in an official letter to Philippine regard. All of America’s security very closely to see how it executes Foreign Secretary Carlos P. Romulo treaties in the region contain similar those obligations under the current that the MDT covers an “attack on diplomatic nuance and consultation circumstances. Philippines armed forces, public ves- mechanisms.) The U.S.–Philippines Mutual sels or aircraft” even if such attack Formally invoking the treaty Defense Treaty (MDT) “recognizes does not occur in the “metropolitan would require a response that could that an armed attack in the Pacific territory of the Philippines or island range from diplomatic censure to Area on either of the Parties would territories under its jurisdiction,” armed defense of Philippine ves- be dangerous to its own peace and thus separating the issue of terri- sels. The decision over what specific safety and declares that it would torial sovereignty from attack on response to choose would be a politi- act to meet the common dangers Philippine military and public ves- cal one and dependent on the cir- in accordance with its constitu- sels. The Philippine ships currently cumstances of the conflict. Declaring tional processes.” It envisions three deployed off Scarborough Shoal are Chinese activity in the South China contingencies: “public vessels.” Sea “dangerous to peace and secu- U.S. Ambassador Thomas rity,” however, would have powerful ■■ An attack on the territory of the Hubbard reaffirmed these assur- effects in and of itself. With such a Philippines (or the U.S.); ances in 1999 during deliberations declaration on the table, it is difficult over the U.S.–Philippines Visiting to imagine life as usual in the U.S.– ■■ An attack on the “island terri- Forces Agreement. He also stated China relationship. tories under its (the Philippines unequivocally that “the U.S. consid- Ensuring Freedom of or the U.S.) jurisdiction in the ers the South China Sea to be part of Navigation. The U.S. has a sepa- Pacific”; or the Pacific Area.”4 This position has rate but related interest in free- not changed. dom of navigation at stake in the ■■ An attack on either party’s “armed What this series of statements Scarborough impasse. These issues forces, public vessels or aircraft in means in the current context is need not be as closely related as they the Pacific.” that if any Philippine “public ves- are, but it is the Chinese claims that sel” comes under Chinese fire, such have made them so. The implications of the first an act will result in the U.S. invoking On its face, the PRC’s assert- are obvious; it is not in any way in the treaty. Invoking the treaty does ing sovereignty so close to the play in the current conflict. The not mean automatic armed response, Philippines—as it has done so often implications of the second have but by invoking it, the U.S. formally over the past year and a half—is also been made clear—perhaps too recognizes the attack as “danger- suspect. Its famous nine-dash map much so3—by the U.S; it does not ous to its own peace and safety and encompassing virtually the entire consider Filipino claims beyond its declares that it (will) act to meet the expanse of the South China Sea and

1. Carlyle Thayer, “Standoff at Scarborough Shoal: Implications for US–China Relations,”China US Focus, May 9, 2012, http://www.chinausfocus.com/peace- security/standoff-at-scarborough-shoal-implications-for-us-china-relations/ (accessed May 14, 2012). 2. Damien McElroy, “Chinese Media Warns of War with Philippines,” The Telegraph, May 10, 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/ philippines/9258225/Chinese-media-warns-of-war-with-Philippines.html (accessed May 14, 2012). 3. Walter Lohman, “South China Sea: Make the Chinese Guess,” The Heritage Foundation, The Foundry, April 21, 2011, http://blog.heritage.org/2011/04/21/ south-china-sea-make-the-chinese-guess/ (accessed May 14, 2012). 4. Republic of the Philippines, Department of Foreign Affairs, “Statement of Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert F. del Rosario Regarding the Philippines–US Mutual Defense Treaty,” May 9, 2012, http://www.dfa.gov.ph/main/index.php/newsroom/dfa-releases/5359-statement-of-foreign-affairs-secretary-albert-f-del- rosario-regarding-the-philippines-us-mutual-defense-treaty (accessed May 14, 2012).

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repeated official references to “indis- such action “dangerous to its own interests within ASEAN and its putable sovereignty over the islands peace and safety” and would ini- cumbersome consensus-building of the South China Sea and their tiate formal consultations with process have prevented it from adjacent waters” are reflective of an the Philippines to determine an playing a mediating role is trou- expansive extra-legal claim. appropriate course of action. The bling. ASEAN can go a long way The dispute over Scarborough nature of its response will be dic- toward proving its value to region- Shoal, per se, is not the problem for tated by the nature of the attack. al peace and security by playing a the U.S. The problem is the nature of constructive role in de-escalating the Chinese claim that encompasses ■■ Call for clarity on Chinese the conflict. it. If the nine-dash map reflects a claims. Earlier this year, a PRC claim to all the water within it, then Ministry of Foreign Affairs ■■ Refrain from making the freedom of navigation is a right con- spokesman made the point public- situation at Scarborough and trolled by the PRC, and the U.S. Navy ly that American officials and ana- the South China Sea a talk- and international shipping sail there lysts have heard privately from ing point in the current push only at the PRC’s forbearance. the Chinese: “No country, includ- for ratification of the United This is why China’s assurances ing China, has claimed sover- Nations Convention on the Law that it will honor freedom of naviga- eignty over the entire South China of the Sea (UNCLOS). Whether tion in the South China Sea regard- Sea.”5 The Obama Administration or not the U.S. ratifies UNCLOS less of sovereignty disputes have should press the PRC to reiterate has no bearing on the impasse or fallen on deaf ears in Washington. this point publicly at the highest on the appeals to UNCLOS by the Developments over the past three levels. It might be a very small parties to the dispute. U.S. navi- years have only confirmed American step toward resolving the current gational rights are not dependent concerns about the way the PRC impasse over Scarborough Shoal on UNCLOS ratification either. views the rights of others in these and related disputes, as even a To imply otherwise, particularly waters. Since the Impeccable incident claim over all the land features given the uncertain outcome of 2009, the Filipinos and others encompassed by the nine-dash UNCLOS faces in the Senate, have been subject to multiple inci- map will not effectively change would weaken the defense of U.S. dents of Chinese violations of their much about the scope of claims interests. navigational rights. over the “adjacent waters.” At the American Leadership in the very least, however, it will put all A Strong America Means a South China Sea. The current claims in common language—a Stable and Secure Asia–Pacific. situation in the Scarborough Shoal necessary prerequisite to manag- In 1951, the U.S. signed a security requires concerted action by the U.S. ing the dispute successfully. treaty with the Philippines. The Its interests in the region, its role Obama Administration has done as the Asia–Pacific’s indispensible ■■ Encourage the involvement of much over the past three years to power, and its credibility as an ally the Association of Southeast indicate America’s continued com- depend on its active leadership. The Asian Nations (ASEAN) and mitment to it. The current impasse U.S. should therefore: ASEAN-centric organizations. over Scarborough Shoal is the first ASEAN should attempt to mediate real test of these efforts. If the ■■ Highlight U.S. treaty commit- an immediate de-escalation of the Administration mishandles this ments. The U.S. should make standoff in the Scarborough Shoal. situation, not only will America’s clear to PRC officials privately Both parties require a face-saving commitment to the security of the that in the event of an armed way to climb down from the cur- Philippines and freedom of naviga- PRC attack on Philippine “public rent impasse, yet the most logical tion be called into question, but so vessels,” the U.S. must invoke its intermediary has been missing in will the very credibility of its posi- treaty commitment to declare action. The fact that conflicting tion in the Western Pacific. That will

5. M. Taylor Fravel, “Clarification of China’s Claim?”The Diplomat, March 5, 2012, http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/2012/03/05/clarification-of- china%E2%80%99s-claim/ (accessed May 14, 2012).

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not be good for anyone on either side of the Pacific. —Walter Lohman is Director of the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.

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