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Trajectories of Union Transition in Emerging Adulthood: Socioeconomic Status and Race/Ethnicity Differences in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort

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Trajectories of Union Transition in Emerging Adulthood: Socioeconomic Status and Race/Ethnicity Differences in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort Yang Zhang University of Michigan Shannon Ang University of Michigan and Nanyang Technological University∗ Trajectories of Union Transition in Emerging Adulthood: Socioeconomic Status and Race/Ethnicity Differences in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the probability of membership in each to describe the patterns of union transition cluster. in emerging adulthood for the 1980 to 1984 Results: The findings showed the follow- cohort and examine its associations with ing six key clusters of trajectories: mostly socioeconomic status and race/ethnicity. single (37.6%), some cohabiting (13.8%), Background: Research on diverging destinies serial cohabiting (10.6%), early 20s marriage of cohabitation and marriage tends to focus on (11.4%), late 20s marriage (22.5%), and tur- singular transitions rather than entire individ- bulent (4.1%). We found that young adults ual trajectories composed of dimensions such as were most likely to be in the “mostly single” timing, order, duration, and number of transi- cluster, regardless of socioeconomic status and tions. race/ethnicity. Individuals with college degrees Method: Drawing on monthly prospective data tended to marry in their late 20s, whereas from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth individuals without college degrees were more 1997, social sequence analysis was used to clas- likely to be in “serial cohabiting” and “tur- sify union transition trajectories from ages 16 bulent” clusters. Individuals who lived with to 30. Multinomial logistic regression was used neither of their biological parents were more likely to belong to “early 20s marriage” and “turbulent” clusters when compared with those who lived with at least one of their biological Department of Sociology, University of Michigan, 500 S. parents. Blacks were more likely to remain State Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1382 and Population single, whereas non-Hispanic Whites were more Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI ([email protected]). likely to marry sometime in their 20s. Conclusion: Evidence for diverging trajectories ∗ Department of Sociology, University of Michigan, 500 S. exists in this recent cohort, but we also find that State Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1382; Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI and most young adults in fact stay single. We also School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological highlight the benefits of considering multiple University, Singapore. aspects of trajectories concurrently, especially Key Words: cohabitation, emerging adulthood, marriage, as relationship instability and complexity race, social class. increase. Journal of Marriage and Family 82 (April 2020): 713–732 713 DOI:10.1111/jomf.12662 714 Journal of Marriage and Family The United States has witnessed remarkable the following two major research questions: transformation in union formation and disso- What are the typical types of union transi- lution during the past few decades. One of the tion trajectories during emerging adulthood? most noticeable trends is that cohabitation is How do these trajectories vary across SES increasingly common, especially for young and race/ethnicity groups? We take advantage adults entering their first union (Manning, of sequence analysis to classify union tran- Brown, & Payne, 2014; Manning & Stykes, sition trajectories into six groups, implicitly 2015), but the risk of union dissolution has also accounting for multiple union transition charac- increased dramatically (Eickmeyer, 2018; Eick- teristics (including the timing, order, duration, meyer & Manning, 2018). Consequently, young and number of transitions) through a variant adults today are more likely to cohabit with of the optimal matching procedure. We then more than once before marriage (which some conduct multinomial regression analysis to scholars call “serial cohabitation”) compared to determine whether these typified trajectories the past (Eickmeyer & Manning, 2018; Lichter diverge by SES and race/ethnicity groups. The & Qian, 2008; Lichter, Turner, & Sassler, 2010). study provides new insights into diverging In this study, we describe life course trajectories union transition patterns across groups that of union transitions, describing long-term pat- may eventually translate into subsequent dis- terns (over 14 years) that occur across emerging parities in later life (McLanahan & Jacobsen, adulthood. 2015). Socioeconomic status (SES) and race/ ethnicity differences have been a key focus Background of research on union formation and dissolution (Kamp Dush, Jang, & Snyder, 2018; Kuo & A Life Course Perspective on Union Transitions Raley, 2016). Research suggests that Blacks During Emerging Adulthood and lower SES groups are less likely to enter The life course perspective (Elder, Johnson, & unions and less likely to transition from cohab- Crosnoe, 2003; Elder & Rockwell, 1979) pro- itation into marriage, but are more likely to vides a useful context for why our approach experience union dissolutions when compared (i.e., examining trajectories rather than single with Whites and higher SES groups (Raley, states) toward union transitions, and the novel Sweeney, & Wondra, 2015; Sassler & Miller, data used here are important. Three key insights 2017). Yet, these studies leave out important from the life course perspective are pertinent. nuances in the data because they rely heavily First, it acknowledges that the antecedents and on unidimensional measures (e.g., age at first consequences of life transitions and events vary marriage, probability of transition into marriage, according to their timing in the life course (the etc.) and fail to account for inherent features of principle of timing). Union transitions affect long-term patterns such as the order, duration, individuals differently depending on when it and the number of transitions for each individ- happens, both in terms of “absolute” time (e.g., ual, each of which may play an important role in age, year) and “relative” time (e.g., the order understanding trends by race/ethnicity and SES. of events). Recognizing this, much debate has Emerging adulthood is a distinctive period happened around whether premarital cohabita- from one’s late teenage-hood to late 20s, during tion is associated with subsequent dissolution of which most young adults leave the dependency marriages (Manning & Cohen, 2012; Musick & of childhood and adolescence, explore numer- Michelmore, 2018). ous possibilities of multiple domains of life, Second, the life course perspective recog- and encounter decisions that will shape their nizes that individual life course experiences are future (Arnett, 2000). Trajectories of union tran- embedded and shaped by historical time and sitions that occur during this crucial period are place (the principle of time and space). Tra- likely to have long-term influence on later life jectories of union transitions vary across birth outcomes. We use the life course perspective cohorts due to different opportunities and con- to analyze monthly cohabitation and marital straints available in the context. Compared with status data from the National Longitudinal previous birth cohorts, those born in the 1980s Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97; https://www. have grown up in a time of rapid demographic nlsinfo.org/content/cohorts/nlsy97), an under- change—seeing increases in cohabitation, non- studied cohort born in the 1980s, to address marital childbearing, and relationship instability. Trajectories of Union Transition in Emerging Adulthood 715 Existing research on union transitions, however, trajectories as being shaped by the available have revealed relatively little about this recent opportunities and constraints that differ by cohort. SES. They are then associated with differing Third, the life course principle of life-span outcomes (e.g., economic, social, and child development recognizes the importance of indi- well-being), likely resulting in the reproduction vidual life histories over the life course—for of social inequality. instance, late-life adaption to aging is connected Much of the research on diverging trajecto- to individuals’ experiences in formative years ries of union transitions by SES use measures of their lives. This means that beyond just of individual-level economic status (e.g., edu- the timing and order of their union formation cational attainment, employment, and earnings) experiences, the duration and number of these or family background (such as family struc- experiences can jointly influence one’s trajec- ture during adolescence and parent’s educational tory. For instance, Lichter and Qian (2008, p. attainment). Studies focused on family back- 861) found that those with two or more prior ground have shown that repeated family struc- episodes of cohabitation (who they term “serial ture change is predictive of the timing, type, cohabitors”) to marriage were more likely to and stability of young people’s first coresidential get divorced when compared with those without unions. For instance, individuals are quicker to cohabitation experience or those with only one form first unions and are at higher risk of union prior episode of cohabitation. Sassler, Michel- dissolution if they have experienced changes in more, and Qian (2018) showed that taking a living arrangements or lived with nonmarried longer time in a relationship before cohabita- or nonbiological parents during their childhood tion increased the probability of subsequently (Amato & Patterson,
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