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Geography and the Environment: Graduate Student Capstones Department of Geography and the Environment

11-20-2015

North Korea: GIS Study of the Slowed Migration of North Korean Refugees

Brandi Hunnicutt

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Recommended Citation Hunnicutt, Brandi, "North Korea: GIS Study of the Slowed Migration of North Korean Refugees" (2015). Geography and the Environment: Graduate Student Capstones. 64. https://digitalcommons.du.edu/geog_ms_capstone/64

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N o rth K o rea : GIS Study of the Slowed M igration of North Korean Refugees

Brandi Hunnicutt

University of Denver Departm ent of Geography

Capstone Project

fo r

M aster of Science in Geographic Information Science

Novem ber 20, 2015

Hunnicutt- ii

A b s tra c t: Since 2009, hum an rights organizations have noted an almost fifty- percent decrease of North Korean refugees reaching freedom in South

Korea, when for so m any years there was a steady increase. Th is capston e paper evaluated the decline by taking two perspectives of research, one perspective being physical terrain changes or m odifications prohibiting the flow of refugees and a second approach of exam ining the lifestyle dem ographics of th e refugees w h o h ave su ccessfully crossed th e N orth

K orean border. G eographic Inform ation System (G IS) t o o ls w e r e u t iliz e d t o determine that in both research approaches there is data indicating purposes for the decrease -- proving that not only is the North Korean governm ent to blam e for this reaction, but policy in asylum and non- asylum cou n tries w ere a ls o a c o n t r ib u t in g fa c t o r .

Hunnicutt- iii

C ontents

Illustrations ...... iv Introduction: ...... 1 Literature R evie w: ...... 4 Design & Im plementation ...... 16 V ie w s h e d A n a ly s is : ...... 16 V iew sh ed R esu lts:...... 25 Least Cost Path Analysis ...... 34 Least Co s t Pa th R es u lts: ...... 39 Dem ographic Analysis: ...... 44 Demographic Results: ...... 45 A reas fo r Fu rther R esearch : ...... 55 R eferences ...... 59

Hunnicutt- iv

Illustrations

Map Page

1. M ou n tainous Te rrain at B orde r C rossing ...... 2 0

2. R ive r C rossing Poin ts ...... 2 2

3. V ie w s h e d o f R iv e r C ro s sin g P o in ts ...... 2 3

Im age

1. V ie w s hed O u tp u t O v e rlaid on G oogle E arth ...... 2 4

Map

4. Id e n tific ation o f N e w S tru ctu re s U s in g V ie w sh e d ...... 2 6

Im age

2. N e w S tru cture 1 ...... 2 7

3. N e w S tru cture 2 ...... 2 8

4. N e w S tru cture 3 ...... 2 9

5. N e w S tru cture 4 ...... 3 0

6. N e w S tru cture 5 ...... 3 1

7. N e w S tru cture 6 ...... 3 2

8. N e w S tru cture 7 ...... 3 3

9. N e w S tru cture 8 ...... 3 4

F ig u re

1. Le a s t C o s t P a th M o d e l...... 3 8 Hunnicutt- v

Map

5. Le a s t C o s t P a th O u tp u t...... 4 0

Im age

10. N ew S tructure A long Chongsong P a th ...... 4 1

11. N e w S tru cture A lo n g Kyongwon Path...... 4 2

12. N e w S tru cture A lo n g O n s o ng P a th ...... 4 4

F ig u re

2. Country of Preference...... 4 6

Map

6. Refugee Population by Country (W orldwide) ...... 4 7

7. Journey from China to Mongolia...... 4 9

8. Major Refugee Population Centers in China...... 5 3

9. Econom ics of a N orth Korean Refugee...... 5 6

Hunnicutt- 1

Introduction:

In 2015, those tuned into m edia would have w itn essed th e m ass- m ig r a t io n of refugees originating from w ar - torn countries such as Iraq and Syria th at have becom e an operating ground for different terrorist factions com m itting abuses against the people. A s a resu lt, people are fleeing at a rate that watch organizations have a hard time accounting for and they are flo w in g out of these countries freely. W hat about the refugees we aren’t seeing flow out of nations that have deplorable health and welfare situations such as starvation, m alnourishm ent, and access to h ealth care -- p la c e s lik e N o r t h

K orea? In a way, m any com parisons can be m ade between the refugee s it u a t io n s unfolding in the M id d le E a s t w ith th e situation th at face s th e N orth

Korean people. The N orth K orean g o v e r n m e n t p a r t ic ip a t e s in propagand a , brain washing, intense fear cam paigns, imprisonm ent, and executions of its people, all in an effort to m ain tain regim e stability . This is m uch like w hat journalists have been reporting on the refugee situation in the M iddle East; people are fleeing with th eir fam ilies by the thousands to escape som eth ing similar being propagated by ISIS who wants the people of these regions to participate in a form of strict Islam . (Kingsley 2014) In a sense, the North

K orean regim e is like its ow n religion w ith the leader of the D em ocratic

R e p u b lic o f K o r e a ( DPRK) being a god- like figu re, an d if a citizen ch allen ges t h is o r der, their fate could be imprisonm ent for the person who com m itted t h e c r im e and three generations of their fam ily as well. (Chang 2012) Hunnicutt- 2

S etting th ese com parison s aside, one m ajor difference exists between these two regions, an d th at is fre e dom of trav e l ou t of th e cou n tries th e y are fle e in g . One m ain difference between North Korea and Iraq or Syria is the strict travel policy in w h ich it places on all of its citizen s. Freedom of travel within North Korea and outside of North Korea is prohibited for the average

North Korean. The privilege of leaving the country is one granted to only the m ost tru ste d of gov e rn m e n t officials th at h av e prov e n th e ir loy alty to th e regime probably over m any generations. (Liberty in North Korea 2015)

Leaving the country without the permission of the governm ent can be punishable by imprisonm ent, labor cam ps, or even death. A ccording to a hum an rights organization called Liberty in North Korea, It is illegal for th e

North Korean people to leave their country without the regime’s perm ission, and the regime attem pts to restrict the people’s m ovem ent even inside their own country. If a North Korean w is h es to trav e l to an oth e r part of th e country, th e y are supposed to have a specific purpose and o b t a in p e r m is s io n from their work unit. If they do not live in Pyongyang, the showcase capital where m ost resources are concentrated, they w ill lik e ly b e d e n ie d a c c e s s .

The regime has also forcibly relocated hundreds of thousands of North

Koreans to less favorable parts of the country as a form of punishm ent and political persecution. (Liberty in North Korea 2015) T h e p r o h ib it io n s e x is t in an environm ent where the people outside of Pyongyang are helpless and Hunnicutt- 3

som etimes incapable of finding food, water, health care, or funds to acquire other item s needed for survival. (Cunningham 2007)

Since the late 90’s, m an y N orth K orean s disregarded th is policy over th e search for food or a better way of life. Steady increases of refugees were n ote d each year reaching asylum in South Korea; however, since 2009, the num ber of refugees arriving to countries of asylum have dropped sign ifican tly. (M inistry of U nification 2013) Th ere is little access to N orth

Korea to be able to speculate as to w h y th ere is su ch a drastic ch an ge, bu t w hat is being reported through m edia outlets is that the drop is probably related to tighter border security, China’s intense cam paign of repatriation of refugees, a North Korean fear cam paign through executions, and a low er expectation from North Koreans. (Lankov, The Guardian 2015) (Sky News

2015) The purpose of this capstone project is to try and prove two of these theories using GIS. Through the use of GIS tools and analysis, this project will reveal that North Korea has increased security along the border and along pathways of travel that act as barriers preventing refugees fro m passin g as easy as they did in the late 90’s and early 2000’s. In addition, an evaluation of lifestyle statistics of N orth K orean refugees w ill also reveal that there exists a low expectation of life beyond the border.

The benefit of answering these questions is to provide geospatial proof of increased secu rity for the purpose of stopping refugee m ovem ent that could be used as supporting docum entation when approaching North Korea on Hunnicutt- 4

hum an rights abuses. In addition, data studied on refugee life once they have left North Korea can also be used to help change po lic y in p la c e s lik e

China or South Korea.

Literature Review :

Developing enough substantial evidence to support a need for this research required an in - depth analysis of literature published on North Korean m igration patterns over tim e, lifestyle w ithin North Korea between the height of cross- border migration and during the decline, publications on changes to refugee policy as it relates to the penal system in North Korea, a n d fin a lly , a review of what life is like as a refugee that successfully escaped. The need to understand these fo u r m ain areas is to evaluate num ber fluctuations and assess if the experts in the field of North Korea agree that there has been a decline in refugee m ovem ent out of North Korea as well as to assess if there has been any change in North Korea since the height of m igration in the

90’s. The research behind all of these topics helps form ulate the basis for th is research an d the need for the investigation. Although there is quite a bit of inform ation available on N orth Korean m igr ation and life in N orth K orea, m uch of what has been released is speculative at times because no one has full access to North Korea or all of the refugees. Th e v ast m ajority of publications on North Korea is heavily reliant on m any of the hum an rights organizations data an d research th at is based from refugee interviews. Hunnicutt- 5

(Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North Korea 2009) (Committee for Human

Rights in North Korea 2006) (H assig 2 015) (Liberty in North Korea 2015)

Since the 17th cen tu ry, m ass m igration s of K orean people h ave crossed th e border between Korea into China due to war, fam ine, econ om ic an d political in stability. E x pe rts indicate th at these m igrations have resulted in as m any as 1 m illion ethnic Korean people rem aining in China and form ing a fairly large population in Northeast China. This very large group of Korean people who have integrated with Chinese and serve, in som e cases, as a life - su pport system on ce N orth K orean refugees cross th e border. (Kirkpatrick

2014) There was accelerated m igration under Japanese occupation of the

Korean peninsula in 1910, but that num ber drastically declined at the end of

W orld W ar II w hen Japan w as rem oved from the region. (N au tilus In stitute

2015) A t th e e n d o f W o rld W a r II, as China becam e a com m unist country and the Korean peninsula becam e divided, the North w as supported by the

Soviet U nion and the South su pporte d by th e U n ited S tate s. S u pport in th e form of m ilitary and food from the Soviet Union created a som ewhat stable environm ent resulting in m inimal m igration across the border. A dditionally, cross- border migration was not an issue d u r in g th is tim e because the re w ards, at th at tim e , w e re n ot w orth th e risk . China and South Korea were not the econom ic powerhouses they have becom e today – both countries were in econom ic disrepair and had m any years of recovery ahead of them .

(Kirkpatrick 2014) However, between the 1990’s and 2009, a steady and Hunnicutt- 6

increasing flow of North Korean refugees existed, m ostly as a resu lt of on e of the largest reported fam ines of the 20th century. (M inistry of U nific a t io n

2013) (Noland 2011) According to studies conducted by hum an rights organizations, famine has “stalked” North Korea for m ore than 20 years, but r e a lly peaked in the 1990’s. (C om m ittee for Hum an Rights in North Korea

2009) S om e re port e stim ate s indicate th at be tw e e n 6 0 0 ,0 0 0 to 1 m illion

North Koreans died as a result of this fam ine. (Kirkpatrick 2014) ( N o la n d

2011) The provinces h it h arde st are th e prov ince s adjace n t to th e N orth e ast

C hina border and as a result of proxim ity and less - secure border acted as a transit point for hundreds of thousands of refugees seeking food. Interview statistics sh ow th at N orth H am gy on g an d S ou th H am gy on g, th e tw o provinces closest to th e N orth east C h ina border, accou n t for 7 6 % of th e refugee population. See Refugee Population by Province M ap. (C om m ittee for Hum an Rights in North Korea 2006)

There are various publicized num bers from different organizations on the exact num ber of North Korean refugees that crossed into China during this time and could rem ain in the country. Most press reporting indicates that there could be 100,000 – 3 0 0 ,0 0 0 , th e S tate D e partm e n t su gge sts th at th e num ber is m uch lower around 30,000 – 50,000, and South Korean reporting indicates that the num ber could be approximately 100,000. ( N a u t ilu s

Institute 2015) (Noland 2011) Th e discrepan cy in reporting is based in the re ality th at n o on e re ally k n ow s th e popu lation statistics as N orth K ore an Hunnicutt- 7

refugees live illegally in C hina. China has an agreem ent with North Korea to return refugees to North Korea upon being discovered; therefore, making

China a very difficult and unsafe place to stay. The refugees have to live in hiding and if they can find w ork, do so illegally, based off of m ultiple reports and publications. (Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North Korea 2009)

(Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North Korea 2006) There is som e evidence that indicates that the num ber of refugees in China has declined drastically s in c e t h e la t e - 1990’s when reporting suggested the num ber was in the hundreds of thousands. (N au tilus In stitute 2 0 1 5 ) R esu lts from a stu dy analyzing population num bers of the three Northeast provinces of China sh ow th at population estim ates from 1 998 to 2009 dropped from around

33,700 North Korean refugees and m igrants in 1998 to perhaps 5,700 in

2009. (N au tilus In stitute 2 0 1 5 ) Due to the fact that China is not a country of asylum for North Korean refugees, it is m ost certainly not where the refugees want to perm anently stay. A review of interview surveys showed that the m ajority of North Korean refugees would prefer to live in South

Korea or the United States over China. (Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in

North Korea 2006) The m ajority of North Korean refugees flee in hopes of reaching South Korea or other asylum countries.

Northeast China is a part of what m any report as a new “underground railroad” for N orth K orean refugees. (Kirkpatrick 2014) China, for so m any, is m eant to be a transit hub for reaching freedom in South Korea, the United Hunnicutt- 8

States, or Europe; however, the sharp decline in num bers in China cannot be an indication of populations reaching their end destinations in South

Korea, United States, and Europe since those num bers have also drastically dropped or have not seen an increase to a degree that would reflect the drop. (UNHCR 2015)

It is recogn ized th at th ere is an in ability to properly track th e rise an d fall of num bers in China; however, there are m any organizations that track the flow of North Korean refugees in South Korea, where th e m ajority of N orth

Koreans arrive outside of the Northeastern China population. Th e statistics sh ow th at re fu ge e s arriving to S ou th K ore a starte d to de cline in 2 0 0 9 , afte r steady increases between 1998 – 2008. (N au tilus In stitute 2015) (Lankov,

Behind the decline in North Korean defections 2015) A dram atic and significant decrease was noted in 2012 and 2013 when roughly 1500 refugees arrived in each of those years. (M inistry of U nification 2013)

Further reporting indicates that in 2014, that num ber dropped even lower to just over 1300 refugees. (Lankov, Behind the decline in North Korean defections 2015) The num bers of refugees granted asylum in the United

States and Europe during this tim e are too low to account for this great d e c lin e . Based on these studies it is apparent that North Korean refugees have stopped crossing the border.

These patterns are troubling to m any hum an rights organizations since the com m unity knows that life in North Korea has not been altered fo r th e Hunnicutt- 9

be tte r. Th e cou n tless stories from N orth K orean refugees describing life insecurity m akes anyone ponder the sharp decline.

Secret police, starv ation , m alnutrition, lack of m edicine, e xecutions, la b o r cam ps, travel restrictions internal and external, environm ental insecurity, and econom ic uncertainty have existed under the regimes of the past and present. (Tudors and Pearson 2015) (Hassig 2015) The prevalence of all of th e se topics act as both a de te rre n t to leav e N orth K ore a, bu t also play a heavy role in why people would want to flee. N orth K orea’s en tire system is based on m aintaining the structure of the Kim dynasty, and all of the aforem entioned challenges of the people, are a result of the Kim dynasty ideology of m ilitary - first politics an d a belief th at on ly th e elite m atter.

(Vorontsov 2006) The elite class of North Korea is centered in Pyongyang,

North Korea’s capital, and they constitute about 1% of the population. These people historically have been con side re d to be th e m ost im portan t to th e survival of the Kim regim e and have reaped the rewards while the 99% of the population has to search for food. (W ee 2013) Th is system h as left N orth

Korea so far behind the rest of the world. W hile North Korea’s Asian neighbors to the South in South Korea and to the W est in China have experien ced econ om ic boom s an d sign ifican t ch an ges since W orld W ar II, the N orth rem ains isolated and deteriorating from w ithin . (Hassig 2015) The deterioration began with the end to the Cold W ar era. North Korea, for decades, had received aid from both China and the Soviet Union; Aid that Hunnicutt- 10

was the only m eans of feeding the people of North Korea. The public distribution system (PDS) w as a food distribution system and all N orth

Koreans were dependent on this system to receive controlled food rations.

Upon the fall of the Soviet Union coupled with poor econom ic choices in the

1990’s and a series of back- to- back floods that destroyed food crops, the

PD S failed m iserably. This failure resulted in the m ass starvation of alm o st a m illion people, according to som e expert num bers. (Hassig 2015) (Tu dors and Pearson 2015) H ow ever, w hat this failure also created w as a shift in the thinking of m any North Korean’s --- s h ift in g from a loyalty to a socialist stru ctu re to be com ing fre e - m arket participants now loyal to them selves and t h e ir fa m ily . (Tudors and Pearson 2015) The Kim regime had failed these people, forcing them to fend for them selves by any m ean s n ecessary. The official salary of a civil servant is under $1 a m onth. A factory w orker m akes even less. (Tudors and Pearson 2015) W ith the governm ent incapable of taking care of the people, these people have m oved into a double- life econom y to survive. The secondary ways of earning capital are num erous and can include growing crops to sell at m arket, renting out room s by the hour t o courting couples, and trading goods from China. The governm ent is well aware of the free- m ark e t practice s an d doe s w h at it can to try an d regulate, but in reality, the m arket has becom e ram pant across the country and the governm ent has lost the ability to truly m anage and control the system . (Tudors and Pearson 2015) Hunnicutt- 11

The free- m ark e t has becom e the m ain source of incom e for the people of

North Korea, and what you can earn in these m arkets is far better than any other means of incom e that the governm ent can provide. It is being reported that this new way of earning and living is one of the reasons we are seeing a decline of refugees as North Korean way- of- life is b e c o m in g b e t t e r . (Lankov,

The Guardian 2015) W h at th e m arkets are also providing is access to inform ation from th e ou tside w orld at a rate n e v e r se en before in North

Korea. North Korea’s closed borders and tight restrictions on inform ation have precluded the population from knowing anything about the outside world from another source other than the governm ent of North Korea.

However, this has changed and people are now able to purchase and share

DVD’s of South Korean dram as or other m edia, all of which is against the law , bu t th e people are still participatin g in th is illegal activity, accordin g to reporting. This change is significant and profound. It is creatin g a lifestyle in

North Korea that brings happiness to the people. Although this m arket activity has m ade life m ore tolerable in N orth Korea as a m eans to buy food, m edicine, clothing, and entertainm ent goods, th e goals of the regime g e t in th e w a y o f t h is tolerance. There is always a loom ing threat around the corner that creates dissent of the people and a need to try and leave the country. (Tudors and Pearson 2015)

O ne of the m ethods created to deter individuals from defecting or rejecting th e goals of th e regim e is th e prison cam p system . Th e prison cam p system Hunnicutt- 12

is known by all North Koreans and they do fear them . (Tudors and Pearson

2015) A ccording to publications on this topic, th e D PR K ope rate s prison cam ps that rival in cruelty to anything in the 20th century. The prison cam p system h olds con ven tion al crim inals, con victed for crim es su ch as th eft or m urder, but also holds a significant num ber of political prisoners. The num ber estimates for how m any people these cam ps hold varies in re porting, bu t m ost re ce n t e stim ate s indicate th at th e popu lation cou ld be as m any as 120,000. (Tudors and Pearson 2015) (Hawk 2013) The num ber of people w ho are political prisoners is reportedly m uch larger than those in conventional prisons for non- p o lit ic a l c r im e s . A political crim e could be anything from m aking a statem ent against the governm ent, insulting the

K im fa m ily , o r d is t r ibuting leaflets criticizing the governm ent. (Tudors and

Pearson 2015) All of these could put som eone in a prison cam p with no hope of ever being released. It has been reported that within these cam ps there is forced back- breaking labor, below subsistence rations, torture, and beatings.

W e also know that under a three- generation rule, political prisoners w ill likely be joined by fam ily m em bers as a result of their crim e as w ell as c h ild r e n . (Tudors and Pearson 2015) In an effort to discourage prison escape, pu blic execu tion s of th ose trying to escape are com m on place an d seen as an effective m easure for stopping those from trying. R esearch indicates that over time there were as m any as ten of these political prisons operating in North Korea; however, the data now reveals that there are four Hunnicutt- 13

th at probably re m ain active . E x pe rts can n ot state th at th e drop in political prison cam ps m ean s that the governm ent doesn’t use them any less as a m eans to deter the people from renouncing the governm ent or defecting since there is som e belief that starvation of so m any of these people has resu lted in less of n eed for so m an y of th e cam ps. (Tudors and Pearson

2015) W e also can’t relate the drop in prison cam ps to the drop in refugees as th e govern m en t still en forces tactics of cold an d bru tal m easu res su ch as exile. Research indicates that the prison cam ps are expensive to m aintain, and the governm ent has m oved to using exile m ore and m ore as a m eans of getting rid of the unw anted. This involves rem oving the political crim inal from society an d placing th e m in th e m ost re m ote are as of N orth K ore a w ith nothing. It is thought that the m ajority of the people w ill die as a result. The m ost rem ote areas of North Korea, North Korea’s Siberia if you will, is along the border regions in the Northeast. (Tudors and Pearson 2015) If e x ile is o n the rise to these areas, then perhaps refugee organizations should have noted an increase in these types of refugees fleeing; however, there has been no reporting indicating this. This could potentially be that the people placed in exile w e re in such a bad physical state that making the difficult jou rn ey w as n ot possible. It is unknown if this m ethod truly deters defection from N orth K ore a, bu t th e atrocities com m itted in th e se place s m u st cre ate a pu sh - pull effect on the people – either push ing th ose to de fe ct to av oid it or pulling those to stay because they are so scared of getting cau gh t. Hunnicutt- 14

If the harsh penal system in North Korea should be a reason for trying to abandon North Korea for a better life elsewhere, despite the consequences for leaving, the environm ent should be an even bigger con cern as it is on th e verge of collapse, according to scien tists. W h en discussing th e en viron m en t, it has to be considered that the people are already struggling to find food, and if the environm ent continues on this track of failure, the im plications of food and w ater shortages w ould be historic. A ccording to scien tific reports,

North Korea’s fresh water supply is polluted and bacteria- infested; there is deforestation and soil erosion on a m assive scale. ( V illa r r e a l 2 0 1 2 ) Forests provide natural environm ents for creating water and air purification, food provision, ground water recharging, and buffering against natural disasters su ch as flooding, according to scien tific re porting. It h as be e n re porte d th at

North Korea has experienced severe losses and dam ages from flooding, probably as a resu lt of m assive deforestation , since th e 1 9 8 0 ’s. In fact th ere has been a steady increase of death due to flooding since the 1980’s.

(Myeong 2014) This type of environm ental failure creates a serious struggle for people to grow food or find water – tw o m ajor issues th at shou ld create a m assive surge of fleeing refugees, but experts are not seeing this in the last few years.

W ith the sharp decline of refugee’s reaching South Korea, an exam ination of o ld and new policies is in order to determ ine if there has been a change that w ou ld cau se th is. R eporting su ggests th at it is a w ell- known issue that Hunnicutt- 15

previous defectors from North Korea have revealed the countless crimes against hum anity that is currently ongoing. Pyongyang has a long history of denying all of its atrocities, and to avoid having to face the m usic on refugee accusations against the governm ent, they are doing what they can to try an d stop th e flow , according to press reports. (Hum an Rights W atch 2014)

However, press reports also indicate that the policy of the new leader, Kim

Jong Un, ou tside of tigh te r borde r se cu rity, is just a continuation of old policies instilled by his father and grandfather. (Hum an Rights W atch 2014)

However, other reporting indicates that Kim Jong Un has taken a new and progressive approach beyond just tighter borders. W here there is reportedly an increase in fencing along the border, K im ’s policy a ls o in c lu d e s s t a t io n in g m ore m ilitary in the area and rotating those m ilitary personnel m ore frequently to avoid in relationships to form w ith the population. R elationships between border guards and villagers can w eaken the system and open up bribery m ore easily. In addition, Kim has m ade the progressive m ove to allow for labor m igration. There is also a grow ing propaganda cam paign h ig h lig h t in g d o u b le - de fe ctors w h o fled to th e S ou th th e n w an te d to re tu rn to the North. These people are given m oney and goods to re tu rn hom e to N orth

K orea and tell their story to the public --- m ostly to insu lt th e S ou th an d its tre atm e n t of N orth K ore an s. (Lankov, The Guardian 2015)

Hunnicutt- 16

D esign & Im plem entation

There are two approaches that were used to try and determ ine the reason behind the drop in refugee num bers. The first approach is a search for any physical changes along the terrain of North Korea to try and discover additional security barriers preventing N orth Korean’s from being able to cross th e border. G IS tools th at included th e v ie w s h e d a n a ly s is a n d le a s t cost an alysis tools were used to designate areas for review using satellite imagery. The second approach is an evaluation of the statistics on the lifestyle of a refugee. A review of refugee econom ics and placem ent around the globe was reviewed to determ ine if the lifestyle post- departure from

N orth K orea can be m easu red as being w orse o r o n th e sa m e s c a le a s liv in g in North Korea. These two approaches w ere com bined to try and add som e insight as to why there is a decline in refugee num bers.

View shed Analysis:

A review of interviews conducted by hum an rights organizations indicate that the overwhelming m ajority of North Korean refugees cross one very im portan t te rrain fe atu re to e x it th e cou n try . That feature is the Tum en

R iv e r spanning 324- m ile s a lo n g t h e K o r e a - China border and em ptying into the Sea of Japan. (Encyclopaedia Brittanica 2015) (Committee for Human

Rights in North Korea 2009) Th e refugees w h o su ccessfully h ave crossed th is river without being detected are usually being assisted by paid guides w ho have made this journey countless times. There is no avoiding crossing this Hunnicutt- 17

river; how ever, even though th is river is th e th ird large st in K orea, it is very narrow and shallow , m aking for a relatively easy crossing as long as there is no threat from border guards on the N orth K orea or C hina side. A review of satellite imagery between 2013 and 2015 of the Tum en R iv e r showed m any places that becom e frozen in the winter m onths as well. These areas would also m ake for an easy crossing, an d w e kn ow from interview accou n ts, th at m any refugees have crossed the frozen sections of the Tum en. (C om m ittee for Hum an Rights in North Korea 2009) The m ajority of refugees know to cross with the intention of reaching the Chinese border town of Tum en, a town that has a very large ethnic Korean population who can speak Korean.

Through word- of- m outh or the paid guide, the refugee knows that their ch an ce s are be tte r of re ach ing S ou th K ore a if th e y m ak e it to th is tow n first where a church or hum an rights organization m ight be able to assist.

Although, reaching Tum en by way of the river requires luck or m oney.

A ccording to M elanie Kirkpatrick, an investigative journalist, a refugee needs luck to evade border guards who think nothing of shooting a fleeing m an in t h e b a c k . L u c k w ill a ls o h e lp h im s t a y c le a r o f th e p rim itive but effective m an- traps that are dug into the riverbanks for the purpose of snaring North

Koreans who are about to cross the river to China. (Kirkpatrick 2014) The m oney is needed to bribe guards, if one is so bold and tru sting. Hunnicutt- 18

The terrain prior to arriving to the river is m ountainous and forest- covered.

The m ain m ountain range that stands between the refugees and China is the

Ham gyong Mountains, also called the Korean Alps. See M ap G raphic 1 .

A ccou n ts taken from interview s of refugees indicate th at m an y h ave to cross this range in order to reach China. One wom an states, “Three of us walked all night through the m ountains.” (Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North

Korea 2009) A second wom an says that they climbed the m ountains all night before reaching China. (Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North Korea

2009) These people travel up and down extrem e slopes and dangerous terrain to reach the The Tum en River, the m ain crossing point, according to interview testimony. O ne wom an discusses her journey, “W e crossed the

Tum en River after w alking all night.” (Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North

Korea 2009). Crossing such terrain is a difficult undertaking as the trek is hard and under the cover of darkness in m ost cases, but at least during this portion of the journey the refugee is under protection of forest cover. O nce they reach the river there are a num ber of observation points where a refugee can be spotted. Knowing how vulnerable these people are at the rive r, th e first ste p at try ing to find an y sort of m odification to se cu rity in p la c e w as to con du ct a view sh ed an alysis in A rcG IS .

E sri, th e corporation th at created th e G IS softw are an d services kn ow n as

ArcG IS, defines a view shed in the follow ing w ay: Hunnicutt- 19

A viewshed identifies the cells in an input raster that can be seen from one or m ore observation locations. Each cell in the output raster receives a value that indicates how m any observer points can be seen from each location. If you have only one observer point, each cell that can see that observer point is given a value of 1. A ll cells that cannot see the observer point are given a value of 0. The observer points feature class can contain points or lines. The nodes and vertices of lines w ill be used as observation points. (Esri 2012)

In a sim plified w ay of explaining this, the view shed tool is used to find w here t h e b e s t v ie w o f a p o in t w ill b e . In o r d e r to r u n a v ie w s h e d a n a ly s is , t h e

A rcG IS softw are requires a digital elevation m odel (DEM ) as an input to account for the m any variables of the terrain and visibility factors and then a point file (the area that needs to be visible). For this specific view shed, a

108- m ile x 7 4 - m ile DEM of the North Korea- China border w as dow nloaded from the Unites States Geological Survey database called earth explorer.

(USGS 2015) To acquire points needed to run the viewshed I selected tw e n ty - e ig h t p o in t s a lo n g t h e riv e r – these points were chosen as they are in the narrowest section of the river and also in close proximity to the town of

Tum en.

Hunnicutt- 20

M ap Graphic 1: M ountainous Terrain at B o rd er Cro ssing

Hunnicutt- 21

A s state d abov e , th e tow n of Tu m e n is th e first de stination for so m an y refugees trying to m ake their w ay across the border and to a third country – in m ost cases th at is h oped to be S ou th K orea; how ever, in m an y cases these refugees don’t m ake it out of China or are caught by Chinese law enforcem ent and returned to North Korea. In addition, these points also reflect the areas of the river that were observed frozen in the winter time m aking it possible to ju st w alk across th e river to potential freedom . It is assessed that by finding the best observation points there is a high likelihood that there should be som e sort of security observation point in these locations and if there are not it represents a hole in the security of guarding the border. See M ap G raphic 2.

The viewshed was then conducted of all twenty- eight points along a 28 - m ile area of the Tum en River. The ArcGIS function displays the result in a visible or not visible output. M ap G raphic 3.

O nce the viewshed was com plete d it cre ate d a raste r file th at sh ow s th e visible and not visible areas. In order to use this data for identification of security posts within these identified areas the raster needed to be converted to a file that could overlay on satellite im ager y in g o o g le e a r t h .

The next step in this process was to convert raster to polygon and then polygon to a .k m l file so th at th e ou tpu t cou ld be se e n atop sate llite imagery. This process m ade it easier to scan the areas of where the visible view of the river w ould be. See Im age G raphic 1. Hunnicutt- 22

M ap Graphic 2: R iver Crossing Points

Hunnicutt- 23

M ap Graphic 3: View shed of R iver Crossing Points

Hunnicutt- 24

Im age Graphic 1: Visible O utput O verlaid on Google Earth

O nce overlaid atop the satellite imagery a thorough scan of the imagery was con du cted. The imagery reviewed was both historical and recent, but the historical imagery was not consistent throughout the area researched. In som e areas, h istorical im agery w as only available back to 2010; how ever; in m any of the locations there was imagery available dating back to 2002 or

2003 resu lting in a m ore accu rate assessm en t of m odification s m ade in th e area. Th e criteria u sed for th e search w as trying to iden tify stru ctu re s th at appeared to be m odified or new between 2002 and 2015 on both the North

Korea and China areas. Focu sing on C h ina w as part of th is research as China is a m ajor partner w ith N orth K orea on preventing the refugees from successfully reaching a third country like South Korea. (Cohen 2014) It h a s Hunnicutt- 25

been reported in the m edia and by governm ent organizations that both

China and North Korea have increased border security to prevent additional refugees from crossing the border. (Congressional Executive Com m ission on

China 2014) The data that is represented in recent publications indicates th at th e drop in re fugees began just after 2009. (Hum an Rights W atch 2014)

If new structures or m odifications could be confirmed between 2009 and

2015, then it could be assessed with m oderate confidence that th e increased presence along the border has had an im p a c t on the flow of refugees.

View shed R esults:

The viewshed output as seen in the viewshed of river crossing m ap was overlaid into google earth and review ed in its entirety. The viewshed output covered an area of approximately 22- m ile s b y 1 1 - m ile s . H is t o r ic a l im a g e r y was com pared with recent imagery to determ ine if there had been any m odification s to stru ctu res or lan dscape th at cou ld indicate an increase in secu rity postu re. This review resulted in identifying eight new structures that w ere con stru cted between 2003 and 2010. These structures also all fall w ithin the visible points of the view shed – possibly further indicating that the structures were placed in these locations to have a good look upon the

Tum en River. It is also w orth n oting th at 6 6 % of the new structures were placed in the southern portion of the viewshed search area. See M ap G raphic

4.

Hunnicutt- 26

M ap Graphic 4: Identification of New Structures Using View shed

Hunnicutt- 27

Im age Graphic 2:

N ew S tru ctu re 1 , Geographic Coordinates: 42.991496 129. 880170:

N ew stru ctu re 1 is assessed to be a probable guard tow er. The structure is a p p r o x im a t e ly 1 0 - feet by 10- feet and casts a fairly large shadow – probably indicating that the structure has som e height. The height of the structure is indicative of this probab ly being a guard tow er. T h e r e is a ls o a c le a r w a lk in g path leading to th e stru ctu re th at w as n ot obse rv e d on the historical im agery coverage in 2011. The structure was probably constructed between 2011 Hunnicutt- 28

and 2013 and sits very close to the bank of the Tum en R iv e r , m aking for an excellent guard tow er location .

Im age Graphic 3:

N ew S tru ctu re 2 , C o o rd in ates: 42.978661 129.916839

N ew S tru ctu re 2 is assessed to be a probable gu ard sh ack. Th e stru ctu re was built between 2011 and 2015 and is 15- feet by 20- fe e t. Th is stru ctu re also has a clear walking path that form ed post- 2011 when the structure was built. This structures position alo ng the bank of the Tum en and good Hunnicutt- 29

obse rv ation of th e rive r su gge sts th at th is is probably a gu ard sh ack th at w a s b u ilt in th e la s t fo u r y e a r s .

Im age Graphic 4:

New Structure 3, 42.924681 129.867640

N e w S tru ctu re 3 is an oth e r stru ctu re that sits alon g th e bank of the Tum en

River. The location is very near to a tunnel exit/entrance. The structure is a p p r o x im a t e ly 1 0 - feet by 15- feet. Th is stru ctu re is also assessed to be som e sort of security structure due to location and visible view of the river.

Hunnicutt- 30

N ew Structure 4, 42.830865 129.813492

This new structure is m uch larger than the previously noted guard shacks or guard towers. The structure is a new building that m easures approximately

40- foot by 15- foot and there are two paths, likely for vehicles, that have access points to th is bu ilding. The vehicle path is unique and interesting in that it form s a perimeter around the area and appears to m aybe be for the purpose of perform ing vehicle perimeter checks. This entire structure and vehicle pathw ay did not exist prior to 2013. This building re sides in an area that used to be part of the river itself; however, since 2013, the area was m odified with the existing vehicle path. This area appears to be extrem ely m arsh - like and would serve no other purpose other than being som e sort of security point as this area likely is w et m ost of the year. Im age Graphic 5:

Hunnicutt- 31

Im age Graphic 6:

N ew S tru ctu re 5 , 42.825547 129.811364

New Structure 5 m easures approximately 10- feet by 12- feet and is probably a guard shack. The shack was built between 2002 and 2008 and is just south of structure 4, but is not connected by vehicle path. The shack can be reached by a walking trail that conne cts to th e ve h icle path th at se rv ice s stru ctu re 4. Th is stru ctu re also sits n ear th e ban k an d h as a visible view of the Tum en River.

Hunnicutt- 32

Im age Graphic 7:

New Structure 6, 42.820056 129.806340

New Structure 6 is assessed to be a probable guard shack and appears to have been som e sort of observation point prior to the structure being constructed after 2008. A walking path is present between 2002 to 2015 – indicating that this area has probably been u sed since at least 2 0 0 2 as a probable observation point; however, no structure was present until the

2013 im agery. It is possible that this area w as m odified to becom e m ore of a perm anent border security location.

Hunnicutt- 33

Im age Graphic 8:

N ew S tru ctu re 7 , 42.805251 129.809373

New Structure 7 m easures approximately 15- feet by 13- feet and was con stru cted betw een 2 0 0 2 an d 2 0 1 3 . Th e stru ctu re is assessed to be a gu ard sh ack. Th is sh ack also sits n ear th e ban k w ith a visible view of th e

Tum en River.

N ew Structure 8, 42.836680 129.817903

New structure 8 m easures approximately 30- feet by 10- feet and is 600- feet from the bank of the Tum en River. There appears to be one sm all access trail to this structure. This structure is further away from the bank of the

Tum en than the other previously identified structures. It is possible that this Hunnicutt- 34

stru ctu re’s position is set furth er back to gain a w ider view of th is area. Th is portion of the river is one of the shallow est and narrow areas of the river, probably m aking this a preferable crossing point. The area that one could cross w ithou t h av ing to tou ch w ate r is v e ry large at th is location .

Im age Graphic 9:

L east C o st P ath A n aly sis

Th e Least C ost Path A n alysis is th e secon d approach u sed in trying to identify any physical m odifications or changes to structures along the path of where refugees have successfully travelled for so m any years. A Least cost path analysis is a distance analy sis tool w ithin G IS th at use s th e least cost path or th e path be tw e e n tw o location s th at costs th e least to th ose travelling along it to determ ine the m ost cost- effective route between a Hunnicutt- 35

source and destination. Cost can be a function of time, distance or oth e r criteria that is defined by the user. (Briney 2014) The thinking behind using th is as a strate gy for finding pote n tial se cu rity m odification s w as th at th e tool could be weighted to account for the best route for som eone needing to travel u n der th e cover of forests. In m an y cases th is tool is u sed in th e G IS service world to find paths that avoid intervention such as forests; however, in the case of a refugee, a thick forests would be the best way to travel to avoid being detected.

The data files required to conduct this analysis included land cover, the sam e

D EM file used in the view shed, origin point shapefiles, and destination point shapefiles. According to reporting from the Com m ission for Hum an Rights in

N orth K orea, the m ajority of refugees originate in the Northern most province of North Ham gyong – w ell over half of all refugees are probably from this province. (Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North Korea 2009)

Since this area represents the largest population of refugees, I selected three of the m ajor cities in the North as the origin points w h ic h in c lu d e

Kyongwon, Chongsong, and Onsong. The destination point is Tum en, China as it is the m ain hub for the refugees as stated above. The land cover data w as dow nloaded from DIVA- G IS an d represen ts th e type of lan d u se across

North Korea. The land use data acquired includes forests, shrubs, cultivated areas, an d w ater. Th e D E M file is u sed to accou n t for slope as th e steeper the slope the m ore difficult to m ove through. The least cost analysis tool Hunnicutt- 36

com bine s all of th is data an d form u late s th e be st rou te , an d in th is particu lar instan ce , I spe cu late d th at the ou tpu t w ou ld be th e m ost like ly rou te of a

N orth K orean refugee trying to travel undetected.

Conducting the Least Cost Path analysis consisted of building a m odel in m odel builder that ran a series of tools from the arc toolbox. The tools used included finding slope, reclassify, w eighted overlay, cost distance, a n d cost path . Th e follow ing ste ps to cre ate the m odel in c lu d e d :

Create Toolbox and new m odel:

- Add a toolbox to arc toolbox: A toolbox was created called “least

cost path ”.

- N e w m ode l w as cre ate d w ithin least cost path toolbox

- M odel properties were m odified for Environm ent so th at w orkspace,

process extent, and raster analysis were all selected.

B u ild th e m o d e l:

- Calculate slope by dragging slope tool from Spatial Analyst tools to

th e m odel space

- Input the DEM raster within the s lo p e t o o l le a v in g Z fa c t o r a t th e

default of “1”

- R u n th e slope tool w ithin th e m ode l so th at th e re is data for th e

reclassifying portion of the m odel Hunnicutt- 37

- Drag reclassify tool from arc toolbox to the m odel space

- Input the slope output that was previously calculate d as th e inpu t

raster and review the values associated with the slope. For this

m odel the lower values should reflect lower slope degree and the

higher values should reflect the higher slope degrees.

- Drag weighted overlay to the m odel space so that values can be

assign ed to the land use raster. Lower values are assigned to thick

forests as they act as cover for the refugee. Higher values were

assign ed to cu ltivated areas an d open areas con taining sh ru bs as

these areas would be m ore of a threat to being seen. A weight

percentage has to be added to the weighted overlay so that the

m odel knows which to weigh heavier in the output – the slope or

the land use. Since travelling under the cover of forests is probably

m ore im portan t to av oid de te ction th an trav elling across steep

slopes, I assigned the land use a higher percentage than slope.

Lan d u se w as assign ed 6 0 % an d slope w as assign ed 4 0 % . A costs

ou tpu t is adde d to th e m ode l to re flect th is w e igh t.

- Th e n e x t ste p is to add th e cost distan ce tool to th e m odel space.

Th e re are tw o inpu ts th at n e e d to be adde d to th is tool, th e costs

output just achieved from the weighted overlay and the destination

p o in t . Hunnicutt- 38

- Th e final tool to be adde d to th e m ode l is cost path so th at w e can

n o w a d d o u r o r ig in p o in t t h a t w ill b e connecting to the destination.

The cost path tool is added to the m odel space and the origin point

o f 1 o f th e 2 c it ie s o f Chongsong or O nsong is added as the input.

As stated earlier, these two cities were selected since they are in

th e N orthern Province where the m ajority of refugees originate.

- Run m odel for each of the origin points.

- Add least cost path output to display in m ap.

F ig u re 1 : L east C o st P ath M o d el

Hunnicutt- 39

The result of the output is added to the m ap display and show s th re e path s from Kyongwon, Onsong, and Chongsong to Tum en. S e e Le ast C ost O u tpu t

M ap below . The output appears to have been successful as the cultivated areas are avoided and the heavy forests areas are predicted to be the best path . A s state d abov e , w h e n reclassifying the land use layer, forests were given a value of 1 – 2 and the cultivated/agricultural areas were given a m uch higher value of 9 – 10. T h is d a t a is t h e n o v e r la id in g o o g le e a r t h so that an imagery analysis can be conducted of these paths in search of finding any new or m odified structures that could be acting as security w atch p o in t s -- preventing the refugees from m aking this journey. See M ap

G r a p h ic 5 .

L east C o st P ath R esu lts:

Upon review of the imagery of the paths that ArcGIS determ ined to be th e best path based on the assigned values, there were three new structures discovered along each of the nam ed paths originating from Chongsong,

Onsong, and Kyongwon.

Hunnicutt- 40

M ap G rap h ic 5 : L east C o st P ath O u tp u t

Hunnicutt- 41

New Structure along Chongsong Path, 42.955743 129.966727

The Chongsong least cost path is the second to longest of the paths and follows along the Tum en River through the m ountainous terrain. It is worth pointing ou t th at th e re are tw o oth e r sm aller cities alon g th is path th at cou ld b e considered as being origin points as well. The new structure observed on this route was constructed between 2010 and 2015 and sits along a road that runs through a thick forested area. The structure does have the appearance of being a guard tow er, but im age quality precluded being able to confirm .

Im age Graphic 9:

Hunnicutt- 42

New Structure along Kyongw on Path, 42.878574 130.171987

The Kyongwon Path is the longest of the three. An analysis of this path showed no new structures less than .75 m iles from the path; however, one new structure was observed .75 m ile from the path point. A new building had been constructed between 2014 and 2015 and m easured approximately

30- feet by 20- feet. There are no other structures in the imm ediate area and th is bu ildin g sits at an elevation of alm ost 1,000 feet. A w alking trail w as also observed leading to the structure. If th e trail leads to th e en tran ce , it would indicate that the front of the building faces the Kyongwon least cost path and could be an observation point for looking upon that route.

Im age Graphic 10:

Hunnicutt- 43

New Structure along Onsong Path, 42.955743 129.966727

The Onsong path is the shortest of the three. A new building was constructed between 2010 and 2011 and m easures approximately 50- feet by 25- feet. It is possible th is bu ildin g is related to agricu ltu re in th e area.

The building sits very near to sm all field s that appear to be used for som e type of farm ing, possibly sm all- scale farm ing. There are a ls o no other structures in the area and no m ajor roads. T h e r e is o n e sm a ll t r a il le a d in g t o the structure, m uch like what has been seen in the other structures id e n tified. It is also possible th at th e farm ing areas are for su sten an ce fa r m in g – providing food to the isolated building. M any experts have indicated that m any North Koreans have to grow their own food to survive.

If this is som e sort of observation post or re m ote station , it is possible th at som e sm all scale farm ing could be being conducted to provide food to those who are stationed here.

Hunnicutt- 44

Im age Graphic 11:

Dem ographic A n a ly s is :

Th e final m eth od u sed is an evaluation of th e statistics associated w it h life outside of North Korea. W here the viewshed and least cost analysis coupled w ith im agery analysis w as u sed to try an d find ph ysical secu rity th at has been put in place to stop the flow of refugees, a n evaluation of lifestyle and hardship w as conducted to try and prove that refugee num bers have probably dropped due to lo w e x pe ctation s. Choropleth and inform ational m aps were used as the canvas to represent life outside of the DRPK w it h a focu s on econ om ics an d lifestyle. A s state d th rou gh ou t th is paper, there are heavy risks involved in attem pting to leave the country. If a refugee choses Hunnicutt- 45

to leave alone, they risk exposing their fam ily that stays behind to brutality of imprisonm ent or labor cam ps. If a refugee is caught along the way, their fa te could be imprisonm ent or death. A series of unfortunate circum stances could arise as a result of trying to cross the border, and therefore, there is re ason to spe cu late th at North Korea’s drop in refugee num bers could be th at th e risk is ju st n ot w orth th e rew ard. Getting captured in China is one of m any risks. A review of m any accounts of refugees indicates that the hard road extends beyond China as China is hopefully just a transfer hub to trying to reach a country of asylum . There are only a few options for a refugee to reach freedom . They have to reach a South Korean consular or reach another country of asylum in South Asia, such as Thailand. Experts have conducted thousands of interviews of North Korean refugees and the data gathered from those encounters sheds a disturbing light on what a refugee has to endure, even once they have reached South Korea.

Dem ographic R esults:

W hen a group of 1,248 North Korean refugees were polled on what de stination th e y w ou ld pre fe r to live , th e re su lts indicate th at overwhelmingly the refugees would prefer to live in South Korea or the

United States of Am erica; however, the actual refugee num bers do not reflect the preference. (Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North Korea 2006)

Hunnicutt- 46

Figure 2: Co untry o f P reference

The overwhelming m ajority of North Korean refugees have rem ained in

China. As seen above, the reality of where a North Korean wishes to live and where they actually reside are com plete opposite. A ccording to m ultiple sources on refugee num bers, it is assessed th at C h ina h olds th e large st am ount of North Korean refugees. The estimates range from 28,000 to

400,000. The huge range exists because refugees reside in China illegally and there is no way of really knowing how m any live in hiding. ( N a u t ilu s

In stitute 2015) (Kirkpatrick 2014) (Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North

Korea 2009) Hunnicutt- 47

The following m ap graphic depicts estimates of the North Korean refugee population around the globe. The data is taken from m u ltiple sou rces as n o database w as com plete. M an y w estern n ation s h ave policies on accepting the refugees as seen below; however, the overwhelming m ajority rem ain in

China. See M ap G raphic 6.

M ap Graphic 6: North Korean Refugee Population by Country

Even if the num ber estimates differ, experts do believe that China does hold the largest North Korean refugee population outside of North Korea. There are a few different reasons for this, and the reasons are not because lifestyle is be tte r. C h ina h as becom e som ew h at of a trap for so m an y h elpless refugees and the m ajority of those refugees are wom en. (Kirkpatrick 2014) Hunnicutt- 48

(Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North Korea 2009) A refugee has a few options on m aking safe passage out of China; however, these options are not easy and require a netw ork of people w illing to help (i.e. aid organizations or Christian m issionaries) or m oney to pay guides. If a refugee can m ake it to M ongolia or Thailand, the chances are good that they will be able to receive assistance to be sent to South Korea for settlement. China is a very big country and m aking either of these journeys without being caught by police or suffering at the hand of the natural environm ents of the G obi desert or the S outheast A sian jungles requires a lot of luck, skill, and a w ill to survive. W here there are m an y refugees th at have su ccessfully m ade th is journey, experts don’t know for sure how m any have died trying to traverse the unforgiving terrain. M elanie Kirkpatrick states in her book, “Som ewhere in th e G obi D esert stan ds a cross in th e san d. It m arks th e grave of Yoo

Chul- m in , a t e n - year- old N orth Korean boy w ho died w hile w alking across the Chinese border to M ongolia.” (Kirkpatrick 2014) See M ap G raphic 7:

Although, so m any do not m ake this journey not for a lack of trying, but as a result of China’s policy of repatriation to North Korea or exploitation of hum an traffickers. As previously m entioned, China and North Korea have a refugee agreem ent policy. Hum an Rights organizations state that, the

Chinese policy of com plicity w ith North Korea puts North Koreans in a permanent state of fear once in China. Their exploitation in China is alm ost Hunnicutt- 49

guaranteed by this practice; they are pushed into low- w age “dirty, difficu lt, and dangerous” w ork. (Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North Korea 2009)

M ap Graphic 7: Journey from China to M ongolia

O ther areas in w hich they are forced is m arriage. W om en are lured even from within North Korea to China for the purpose of becom ing brides to the m any unm arried Chinese m en living in rural Northeast China. A ccording to

North Korea Now, a hum an rights organization for N orth K orean refugees, O f the tens of thousands of North Korean refugees hiding in China, in 2008, it Hunnicutt- 50

w as e stim ate d th at a disproportion ate n u m be r, n e arly tw o- th irds of th e refugee population, were wom en. O f these wom en, 70 to 80 percent of

North Korean refugee wom en are trafficked into forced m arriages, com m ercial sex exploitation, and exploitative labor. (North Korea Now 2015)

There are four main provinces in Northeast China where the m ajority o f

N orth K orean refugees settle; three provinces along the border with North

Korea and Shandong Province where there is a very large South Korean population. The three provinces along the border are Heilongjang, Jilin, and

Liaoning and consists of rural farmland and is considered to be relatively poor and underdeveloped. (North Korea Now 2015)

The ratio of m arriageable age m ale to female in these regions is 14:1 in som e parts. This imbalance can be attributed to China’s one- c h ild p o lic y a n d th e Chinese preference of having a m ale child over a female child. This selective m ethod of choosing to have m ales predom inantly over females has created the significant imbalance between m en and wom en. Unfortunately, the imbalance has also created the need to import brides m ade up of unknowing participants who are either intercepted once they cross the border or are lured from N orth K orea w ith lies of having a better life once in

China. (North Korea Now 2015) (Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North

Korea 2009) The tales that these trafficked wom en provide are both sad and disturbing, and sets up the question of whether staying in North Korea would Hunnicutt- 51

have been the better choice than a life that is forced upon them . These vulnerable wom en went from one forced life to another.

The accounts of three North Korean wom en refugees below paint a picture of the inhum ane treatm ent of these people who were just trying to leave one b a d s it u a t io n fo r a better life.

“O nly w hen w e arrived in a village in H eilongjiang did I hear that I w as going to get m arried. I didn’t have a choice because I didn’t even know where I w a s.” (Kirkpatrick 2014)

“W e m et with one ethnic Korean m an by chance, and he said we should get m arried to a Chinese citizen to be safe. W hile I was not sure whether I should follow him or not, he took m e to Mishan in Heilongjiang and sold m e to a Han Chinese m an.” (Kirkpatrick 2014)

“I crossed the Tum en River with three other people, and we all went to the house of ethnic Koreans nearby. This house- hold had an orchard. They let us work there for a while, giving us food and shelter. O nce day, three men, including one dressed in a s o ld ie r ’s uniform , cam e in a taxi and took m e to

Longjing, where I was sold to an ethnic Korean m an.” (Kirkpatrick 2014) Hunnicutt- 52

Som e of these wom en are able to run away from these lives of forced m arriage, but unfortunately, th e y run to the sex trade business in Shandong province. Shandong province is hom e to an estimated 300,000 ethnic

Korean’s and there is reportedly 80,000 South Koreans living in Shandong due to the import of South Korean com panies to the area. The presence of so m any ethnic Korean’s m akes it appealing for North Korean refugees because the presence of so m any of a similar culture and language could offer up an opportunity to be able to work and save m oney to go to South

K orea. A boom ing sex trade bu siness h as m ade it so a refugee can earn ten times as m uch in a m onth than working as a waitress in a Korean re stau ran t. (Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North Korea 2009) M a n y o f th e se w om e n do try an d sav e m on e y to ge t to S ou th K ore a, bu t also m any send m oney back to their fam ilies in N orth Korea. It is hard to m ake a de te r m in a t io n o n w h ic h life is w o r s e , a life in N orth K orea, a life as a forced bride, or a life in the sex trade business. It is all an unfortunate circu m stan ce. See M ap G r a p h ic 8 .

If the ultimate goal and preference of a refugee is to reach South Korea then it m ust be the best of all options. O f the m ajor refugee population centers that include the four provinces in China, North Korea, and South Korea,

South Korea does offe r th e be st e con om ic situation . Hunnicutt- 53

M ap Graphic 8: M ajor Refugee Population Centers in China

Hunnicutt- 54

South Korea isn’t only the best choice because the econom ic situation is better, but it m akes m ore sense culturally. M any North Korean’s have extended fam ily in South Korea, language sim ilarity, and they rem ain close to N orth K ore a w h e re th e y can pote n tially m ake connections to the fam ily that rem ain in North Korea. However, as it has seem ed throughout this paper, the lives of the refugees are a story of continual hardship. T h e ir search for freedom is an en dless battle against abu se, discrim ination an d lo n e lin e s s . (Shako Liu 2012) W h e re th e statistics sh ow th at th e av e rage salary of a refugee is $16000 per year, a few thousand less than a sex trade worker in Shandong province, the type of work that is offered to the refugees are the worst of jobs that the average South Korean does n ot w an t to do. In South Korea the jobs are called 3D – dirty, dangerous, and difficult.

(Pohl 2015) Much like the lives of m any refugees around the world, the

North Korean refugees suffer the sam e econom ic fate due to a lack o f training, relatable education, and skills. The A sian Institute for Policy S tudies re ports th at, 40% of of the North Korean refugees living in South Korea are children and young adults aged 10 to 29. Am ong the m any challenges faced by th e se young North Korean refugees are different from adults’, such as g a p s in p h y s ic a l h e a lt h a n d s o c io - econ om ic statu s, psych ological h ealth issues su ch as post- trau m atic stress disorder (PTS D ), an d bias tow ards th e

North Korean refugees that are widely prevalent in schools an d w orkplaces. Hunnicutt- 55

(M yon g- Hyun 2014) Th ese obstacles preven t th ese you th from su ccessfully integrating and having an opportunity at a life like their South Korean- born peers are able to achieve. R e porting from 2 0 1 4 su gge sts th at, new refugee arrivals suffer from six times the unem ploym ent rate of the regular p o p u la t io n an d th is can clearly be attribu te d to th e cu ltural gap in te rm s of education, work ethic, and financial goals. The defector’s transition s cou ld not be m ore extrem e. (Ghandi 2014) See M ap G raphic 9.

A reas for Further R esearch: Between the imagery findings of increased security and a review of the results of incom e disparity and difficult hardships experienced by the refugees, the results indicate that there are two barriers preventing them from su ccessfully reach ing freedom . Th e barrier of observed ph ysical m odifications to the security along the border and a depressing outlook of life beyond the border. If a refugee can su ccessfully cross th e border exiting

North Korea, the num ber of other hardships facing them is probably a m ajor factor as to why there has been such a drop in the num ber of refugees.

It has been reported by a num ber of sources that the North Korean people are becom ing m ore connected to the outside w orld through illegal cell phones smuggled into the country.

Hunnicutt- 56

M ap Graphic 9: Econom ics of a North Korean Refugee

Hunnicutt- 57

This provides a com m unications netw ork to fam ily m em bers or friends that have escaped. It is possible that their tales of trafficking, incom e inequality, and discrim ination is deterring the N orth Korean people from trying to endure the long journey ahead th at pote n tially cou ld tak e y e ars to com e to fr u it io n .

The U nited States does not have good diplom atic relations w ith North Korea and therefore exposing N orth K orea for stepping up border security for the purpose of preventing their people from leaving probably w ould not change policy. W e do know from m edia reporting that the DRPK has w orked very hard at trying to prevent the exit of the refugees because they expose the regime and the country. (Kim 2013) (Mandel 2014) It is possible th e imagery findings of North Korean border security could be used to em barrass the regime and discount their constant propaganda that the people aren’t leaving North Korea because they prefer to stay, but rather

N orth Korea has taken efforts to force the stoppage. Another usage of the findings is to provide som e exposure to China as w ell. S itting be tw e e n th e refugees and their freedom is China. The continued research into the population centers of China and the existence of such a horrific hum an trafficking trade could expose China in a light that they would prefer to keep q u ie t . T h is is also an area that South Korea co u ld p o t e n t ia lly a d d r e s s since the ethnic Koreans that live in Shandong province are such a huge factor in th e sex trade practices. (Com m ittee for Hum an Rights in North Korea 2009) Hunnicutt- 58

Th is project atte m pte d to ide n tify factors stopping th e flow of N orth K ore an refugees, but really only scratch ed th e su rface. A reas for furth er research could be to continue the search for the m odification of security but with the use of higher quality im agery. T h e im a g e ry u sed in th is stu dy w as w h at w as available on G oogle Earth. If high quality im agery consisting of m ore frequent collection could be purchased from a com m ercial im aging com pany the results could be m ore extensive. In addition, since China could potentially be pressured on this topic, a continued look at China’s security increases along their border could also be researched more intensely. China belongs to the United Nations Refugee Convention. China acceded to the

C onvention in 1982, which is the core international doctrine pertaining to rights of refugees, and it s disregard for protection of N orth K orean defectors and asylum - seekers is perceived as noncom pliance to its obligations, according to Eunbee Chung of Yonsei U n iv e r s it y . (Chung 2012) Estim ating where China has contributed to physical barriers of these refugees is som ething worth exploring since the United States and South Korea have diplom atic room to possibly m ake headw ay.

Hunnicutt- 59

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