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Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

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Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Dr. S.S.L.Hettiarachchi Tsunami Risk Assessment Dr. S.P.Samarawickrama for Coastal Cities of Sri Lanka University of Moratuwa ________________________ Case Study for the Dr.N.Wijeratne Port City of Galle University of Ruhuna Dr. Juan Carlos Villaran UNU, Bonn Dr.Hong Kie Thio URS, USA ____________________________ Acknowledgements- USAID/IOTWS Project NSF, Sri Lanka PARI, Japan WAPMERR, Geneva Geo Science, Australia University of Arizona UNU, Bonn Moratuwa 8.4 10.210.3 6.9 Kalutara 09.30 hrs 1 st Wave Galle 06 30 00 N 09.45 hrs 2 nd Wave 8.8 12.20 hrs 3 rd Wave Payagala District 4.5 7.0 4.5 6.0 Ahungalla Yala 09.10 hrs 1 st Wave 3.5 Kirinda 09.20 hrs 2 nd Wave 4.1 Hikkaduwa 3.7 Hambantota 09.30 hrs 1 st Wave Galle 09.45 hrs 2 nd Wave Tangalle 06 00 00 N 12.20 hrs 3 rd Wave Unawatuna Matara 09.20 hrs 1 st Wave 09.45 hrs 2 nd Wave 09.20 hrs 1 st Wave 09.40 hrs 2 nd Wave 79 30 00 E 80 00 00 E 80 30 00 E 81 00 00 E 81 30 00 E 82 00 00 E City of Galle City Center Port of Galle Galle Bay and Headland comprising the Dutch Fort Approach towards Risk Assessment Multi Hazard Coastal Risk Assessment Framework …. towards Disaster Risk Reduction Risk= Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability x Deficiencies in Preparedness Early Warning and Countermeasures against tsunamis and Mitigation Options Multi Hazard approach considers all coastal hazards, each having a frequency of occurrence and potential impact (intensity /spatial distribution) Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability x Deficiencies in Preparedness The separation between Vulnerability and Deficiencies in Preparedness is done to highlight the existing vulnerabilities and those deficiencies which could enhance the loss of life during disaster. -Awareness -Early Warning -Response -Evacuation / Safe Places -Evacuation Structures/ Tsunami Resilient Infrastructure Next Destructive Tsunami ? Indian Ocean Tsunami 26th December 2004 Tsunami 17th July 2006 Tsunami Tsunami th 28th March 2005 12 Sept 2007 Early Warning and Countermeasures against tsunamis Promote successful evacuation Mitigate tsunamis from tsunamis (Mitigation Options) • Early Warning System •Physical Interventions (Local and Regional) (Artificial Methods, • Public Warning System Natural Methods and • Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Maps Hybrid Methods) • Set Back •Design Guidelines for • Evacuation Routes & Structures exposed infrastructure Early Warning and Countermeasures against tsunamis Promote successful evacuation Mitigate tsunamis from tsunamis (Mitigation Options) • Early Warning System •Physical Interventions (Local and Regional) (Artificial Methods, • Public Warning System Natural Methods and • Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Maps Hybrid Methods) • Set Back •Design Guidelines for • Evacuation Routes & Structures exposed infrastructure Risk Assessment- Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity 1 Assessment of the Tsunami Hazard and Exposure Source Exposure (1) Tsunami Hazard Source Exposure (2) Tsunami Hazard Impact on land Hazard impact on land Disaster- Hazard impact on land Vulnerability Hazard event within the broader hazard source Exposure Tsunami Hazard Source Tsunami Hazard Impact on land 1. Geological and Seismic Studies 2. Hydraulic, Geological and other investigations of the hazard sources of the impact of the tsunami hazard on land 3. Probabilistic Tsunami 4. Deterministic Tsunami Hazard Modelling (PTHM) Hazard Modelling 1 Study of the Hazard Source Geological and Seismic Studies •Previous events (their location, magnitude and sequence) •Seismic Gaps •Potential tsunami sources •Identification of ‘Credible Scenarios’ 2 Study of the impact of the hazard on land Impact Profile for a given tsunami 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 12/26/04 0:00 12/26/04 6:00 12/26/04 12:00 12/26/04 18:00 12/27/04 0:00 Time Measurements Field observations Satellite Images from instruments of known events Paleotsunami Research Field investigations and application of special techniques on Paleotsunami Research Exposure to the Tsunami Hazard on land at a given location Exposure of the island Enhanced Exposure to the Tsunami Hazard on land at a given location 3 Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Modelling (PTHM) Based on the principle of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Modelling (PSHM) Tsunami hazard Source Sensitivity Wave heights for a 475 year Allows identification of particular source areas of high vulnerability for a site recurrence time after Hong Kie Thio 4 Deterministic Tsunami Hazard Modelling Deepwater Modelling, Near-shore and Inundation Modelling (1) To study overall exposure of the island (2) Simulate tsunamis which have taken place and where possible, compare with field measurements on height, inundation and run up. (3) Simulate potential tsunamis based on ‘Credible Scenarios’ obtained from Geological and Seismic studies of the hazard. Mathematical Modelling comprise two types of modelling for the different phases of tsunami wave propagation -Generation Overall Regional Models -Deep water Exposure (deep water) Propagation -Interaction with the Continental Shelf Tsunami Local -Nearshore Hazard Models Transformation (nearshore Impact on and -Shoreline Entry inundation) land -Inland Dissipation RiskRisk ModelModel FlowFlow ChartChart Begin Risk Analysis ExposureExposure Hazard Data Elements at Risk & Parameters & Vulnerability Social & Event Event Physical Event Total Economic Occurrence Propagation Impact Scenario Risk Impact Hazard Model Vulnerability Model Evaluate all possible (probable) event scenarios VulnerabilityVulnerability HazardHazard after John Schneider Deep Water Modelling For a ‘given credible scenario’ Deep water Modelling will provide Information of Overall Exposure 4 .3 20. .10 0. -.0 1.0 0 •Wave heights at the boundary •Useful information for the development of an Advanced Tsunami Warning System Mathematical Simulation of tsunamis F1 = 300 km F1 Mathematical Simulation of the IOT F2 F2 = 570 km Mathematical Simulation of the IOT F3 F3 = 330 km Mathematical Simulation of the IOT F3 = 300 km F1 F2 F2 = 570 km F1 = 330 km F3 M=9.2 (3.32 N, 95.85 E) Indian Ocean Tsunami 26th Dec 2006 Mathematical Simulation of the IOT by WAPMERR M=9.2 (3.32 N, 95.85 E) Tsunami 28th March 2005 M=8.7 (2.07 N, 97.01 E) Tsunami 12th September 2007 M=8.4 (4.52 N, 101.37E) Enhanced Exposure to the Tsunami Hazard on land Submarine at a given location Geological features Impact of Submarine Geological features, Coastal Processes and Local Geometry on Tsunami Wave Amplification Regional Location Location with respect to the Continental Shelf Shoreline Geometry The influence of Wave Reflection from Maldive Islands Reflection of waves Enhanced Exposure- Characteristics influenced Energy concentration at headlands and in bays by the shape and geometry Concentration of wave energy Incoming wave rays contoursdepth Increase in Height/Speed and formation of Eddies Enhanced exposure of the City of Galle Galle Bay and Headland y Ba– increase of speed & height and circulation Historic Dutch Fort West East Headland – concentration of energy and 1 1 2 4 spreading around the headland H/(/)(/)2 H 1= b 1 b 2 1 h 2 h Nearshore and Inundation Modelling Modelling of Tsunami Hazard on land for Assessment of Hazard/Risk Nearshore and Inundation Modelling For a ‘given credible scenario’ Inundation Modelling will provide 1. Inundation Height 2. Distribution of Inundation level 3. Velocity of the propagating wave 4. Currents 5. Intrusion length 6. Run-up (where applicable) 7. Flood volume (if possible) Modelling of ‘different credible scenarios’ will provide a Data Base of the Key Parameters relating to inundation which could be stored in a GIS to obtain a clear understanding of Hazard and Risk Key Parameters Inundation Height Distribution of Inundation level Velocity of the propagating wave Currents Intrusion length Run-up (where applicable) Flood volume (if possible) Development of Critical Scenario Security of People and Infrastructure Inundation Depth :>50 cm Human killed (Velocity is strong ) :>1.0 m Partial damage House :>2-3 m Total damage and :>5.0 m Damage Building Hazard Maps of Inundation Contours based on Inundation Modelling of different scenarios (a) Scenario A (b) Scenario B (d) Scenario D (c) Scenario C Anuga Model (GeoScience-Australia) Hazard Map of Inundation Contours based on field measurements of IOT after Dr.N.Wijeratne M Dynamic Hazard Map of Inundation of IOT for Galle- PARI, Japan based on Deterministic Tsunami Hazard Modelling For Scenario Mathematical Modelling of nearshore propagation and inundation from tsunamis the requirements are Collaboration with -Availability of a reliable model (1) PARI, Japan representative of the phenomena (2) Geo-Science, Australia (3) Model of Prof. Imamura (4) ICG/IOTWS -Quality Data Seabed topography Land topography Lidar Surveys of the Coastal Zone carried out with Italian Assistance Puttalam HyperDEMHyperDEM”” Batticaloa The precise 3-D model Lidar Surveys of the Coastal of the coastal areas of of the coastal areas of Zone carried out with Italian Sri Lanka Assistance Airborne acquisition (Stage 1) Colombo Pottuvil Airborne acquisition (Stage 2) Kalutara Satellite acquisitions Galle (Stage 2) Hambantota Detail Topographical Data Detailed Topographical Data (LiDAR Surveys) Full 3-D reconstruction of the urban area of Galle. In foreview, the Dutch Fort 2 Vulnerability Structural, Economic, Human, Social, Cultural and Psychological Vulnerability represents the proneness of society and its full structure to be affected by the hazard. Vulnerability is a dynamic in character, it is modified by people, organizations, governments, social
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