Theory and Evidence in Comparative Politics and New Visions in Security Series Editor: Richard Ned Lebow

Ending the Cold War: Interpretations, Causation, and the Study of International Relations Edited by Richard K. Herrmann and Richard Ned Lebow Embedded Liberalism and Its Critics: Justifying Global Governance in the American Century Jens Steffek Theory and Evidence in Comparative Politics and International Relations Edited by Richard Ned Lebow and Mark Irving Lichbach Reframed: Security and Identity in Europe’s Eastern Enlargement (forthcoming) Merje Kuus Theory and Evidence in Comparative Politics and International Relations

Edited by

Richard Ned Lebow and Mark Irving Lichbach THEORY AND EVIDENCE IN COMPARATIVE POLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Copyright © Richard Ned Lebow and Mark Irving Lichbach, 2007. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2007 978-1-4039-7456-3

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published in 2007 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN™ 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, England RG21 6XS Companies and representatives throughout the world. PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 978-1-4039-7661-1 ISBN 978-0-230-60750-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230607507

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Theory and evidence in comparative politics and international relations / edited by Richard Ned Lebow and Mark Irving Lichbach. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-4039-7661-1 (pb) 1. Social sciences––Philosophy. 2. Social sciences––Methodology. 3. Political science––Philosophy. 4. Political science––Methodology. 5. Knowledge, Theory of. 6. Science––Philosophy. I. Lebow, Richard Ned. II. Lichbach, Mark Irving, 1951– H61.S58976 2007 300.1––dc22 2007060712 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: August 2007 10987654321 To Kate, Eli, David and Andrew And to Sammi Jo and Yossi This page intentionally left blank Contents

About the Authors ix

1. What Can We Know? How Do We Know? 1 Richard Ned Lebow

Part I Foundational Claims 2. Evidence, Inference, and Truth as Problems of Theory Building in the Social Sciences 25 Friedrich V. Kratochwil 3. The Limits of Interpreting Evidence 55 Ted Hopf

Part II The Product of Inquiry 4. Beyond Logical Positivism: Reframing King, Keohane, and Verba 87 Brian M. Pollins 5. Methodological Pluralism and the Limits of Naturalism in the Study of Politics 107 Fred Chernoff

Part III The Purpose and Methods of Research 6. Transforming Inferences into Explanations: Lessons from the Study of Mass Extinctions 145 David Waldner 7. Theory, Evidence, and Politics in the Evolution of International Relations Research Programs 177 Jack S. Levy viii CONTENTS

8. Imperial Peace or Imperial Method? Skeptical Inquiries into Ambiguous Evidence for the “Democratic Peace” 199 Andrew Lawrence

Part IV New Directions 9. Social Science as Case-Based Diagnostics 229 Steven Bernstein, Richard Ned Lebow, Janice Gross Stein, and Steven Weber 10. Theory and Evidence 261 Mark Irving Lichbach

Index 285 About the Authors

Steven Bernstein is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto. His current research focuses on global governance and the problem of legitimacy. He is the author of The Compromise of Liberal Environmentalism (New York: Columbia University Press, 2001) and coeditor (with Louis W. Pauly) of Global Liberalism and Political Order: Toward a New Grand Compromise? (Albany, NY: SUNY Press, 2007). Fred Chernoff is Professor of Political Science and Director of the International Relations Program at Colgate University in Hamilton, NY. His interests are in international relations theory and metatheory and security studies. His most recent books are Theory and Metatheory in International Relations: Concepts and Contending Accounts (Palgrave- Macmillan, 2007) and The Power of International Theory: Re-forging the Link to Policy-making Through Scientific Enquiry (Routledge, 2005). Ted Hopf is Associate Professor of political science at Ohio State University. His most recent book is Social Construction of International Politics (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2002). Friedrich V. Kratochwil is Professor of International Relations at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy. His most recent book (together with Ed Mansfield, eds.) is International Organization and Global Governance (New York: Pearson, 2006). He has been the editor of European Journal of International Relations (2000–2004) and is a member of several editorial boards in Europe and the United States. Andrew Lawrence is Lecturer in African Politics in the School of Social and Political Studies at the University of Edinburgh. He is working on a book on the political economy of South Africa’s democratization in comparative perspective. Jack S. Levy is Board of Governors’ Professor of political science at Rutgers University, New Jersey. He is author of War in the Modern Great Power System, 1495–1975 (Lexington, KY: University Press of Kentucky, 1983) and of numerous articles relating to the causes of war and foreign-policy decision making. x ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Richard Ned Lebow is the James O. Freedman Presidential Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH. His The Tragic Vision of Politics: Ethics, Interests, and Orders (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003) won the Alexander L. George Award for the best book in political psychology. Mark Irving Lichbach is Professor and Chair of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland. He is the author of The Rebel’s Dilemma (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, 1995) and of other books and articles in comparative politics. Brian M. Pollins is Associate Professor of political science and a Research Fellow at the Mershon Center of the Ohio State University. His research interests concern international conflict as well as research methods. His articles on these topics have appeared in American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, and Journal of Politics. Janice Gross Stein is Belzberg Professor of Conflict Management in the Department of Political Science and Director of the Munk Centre for International Studies at the University of Toronto. She is a fellow of the Royal Society of Canada. Her most recent publications include Networks of Knowledge: Innovation in International Learning (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2001); The Cult of Efficiency (Toronto: House of Anansi Press, 2002); and Street Protests and Fantasy Parks (Vancouver: UBC Press, 2002). She has recently been appointed Trudeau Fellow. She is currently writing a book on local and global challenges to accountability. David Waldner is Associate Professor in the Department of Politics at the University of Virginia. He is the author of State Building and Late Development (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1999) and is currently completing a book manuscript, Democracy and Dictatorship in the Post- Colonial World. Steven Weber is Professor of Political Science at University of California, Berkeley. His most recent book is The Success of Open Source (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2004).