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The Digital Revolu on and Sustainable Development The Digital Revolu� on and Sustainable Development: Opportuni� es and Challenges Report prepared by The World in 2050 ini� a� ve International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an independent, international research institute with National Member Organizations in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. Through its research programs and initiatives, the institute conducts policy-oriented research into issues that are too large or complex to be solved by a single country or academic discipline. This includes pressing concerns that affect the future of all of humanity, such as climate change, energy security, population aging, and sustainable development. The results of IIASA research and the expertise of its researchers are made available to policymakers in countries around the world to help them produce effective, science-based policies that will enable them to face these challenges. www.twi2050.org This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. For any commercial use please contact [email protected] Figures by the TWI2050 consortium are licensed under CC-BY-NC 4.0. For all other figures see individual source details. RecommendedFirst published in citation: July 2019 TWI2050 - The World in 2050 (2019). The Digital Revolution and Sustainable Development: Opportunities and Challenges. Report prepared by The World in 2050 initiative. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. www.twi2050.org Available at: pure.iiasa.ac.at/15913/ ISBN 10: 3-7045-0155-7 ISBN 13: 978-3-7045-0155-4 DOI: 10.22022/TNT/05-2019.15913 The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such web sites is, or will remain, accurate, or appropriate. The views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, its National Member Organizations, or any other organizations supporting the work. The Digital Revolution and Sustainable Development: Opportunities and Challenges Report prepared by The World in 2050 initiative Authors Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Dirk Messner, Caroline Zimm, Geoff Clarke, Johan Rockström, Ana Paula Aguiar, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Lorenza Campagnolo, Ilan Chabay, David Collste, Luis Comolli, Luis Gomez-Echeverri, Anne Goujon, Arnulf Grubler, Reiner Jung, Miho Kamei, George Kamiya, Elmar Kriegler, Michael Kuhn, Julia Leininger, Charles Martin-Shields, Beatriz Mayor-Rodriguez, Jerry Miller, Apollonia Miola, Keywan Riahi, Maria Schewenius, Jörn Schmidt, Kristina Skierka, Odirilwe Selomane, Uno Svedin, Paul Yillia Contributors Tateo Arimoto, Bill Colglazier, Arthur Contejean, Ines Dombrowsky, Tanvi Jaluka, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Kris Murray, Michel Noussan, Mihail C. Roco, Lucilla Spini, Mark Stoeckle, Sander van der Leuw, Detlef van Vuuren, Eric Zusman Foreword The Digital Revolution, including technologies such as virtual and augmented reality, additive manufacturing or 3D-printing, (general purpose) artificial intelligence, or the Internet of Things, has entered the public discourse in many countries. Looking back, it is almost impossible to believe that digitalization is barely featured in the 2030 Agenda or the Paris Agreement. It is increasingly clear that digital changes, we refer to them as the Digital Revolution, are becoming a key driving force in societal transformation. The transformation towards sustainability for all must be harmonized with the threats, opportunities and dynamics of the Digital Revolution, the goals of the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement. At the same time, the digital transformation will radically alter all dimensions of global societies and economies and will therefore change the interpretation of the sustainability paradigm itself. Digitalization is not only an ‘instrument’ to resolve sustainability challenges, it is also fundamental as a driver of disruptive change. This report that focuses on the Digital Revolution is the second one by The World in 2050 (TWI2050) that was established by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and other partners to provide scientific foundations for the 2030 Agenda. This report is based on the voluntary and collaborative effort of 45 authors and contributors from about 20 institutions, and some 100 independent experts from academia, business, government, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations from all the regions of the world, who met four times at IIASA to develop science-based strategies and pathways toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Presentations of the TWI2050 approach and work have been made at many international meetings such as the United Nations Science, Technology and Innovation Forums and the United Nations High-level Political Forums. Transformations to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals In 2018, the first report by TWI2050 on identified Six Exemplary Transformations needed to achieve the SDGs and long-term sustainability to 2050 and beyond: i) Human Capacity & Demography; ii) Consumption & Production; iii) Decarbonization & Energy, iv) Food, Biosphere & Water; v) Smart Cities and vi) Digital Revolution. The focus of this report is the Sixth Transformation, The Digital Revolution. Although it is arguably the single greatest enabler of sustainable development, it has, in the past, helped create many negative externalities like transgression of planetary boundaries. Progress on the SDGs will be facilitated if we can build and implement detailed science, technology and innovation (STI) roadmaps at all levels that range from local to global. STI is a forceful driver of change connected to all 17 SDGs. The Digital Revolution provides entirely new and enhanced capacities and thus serves as a major force in shaping both the systemic context of transformative change and future solutions; at the same time it potentially carries strong societal disruptive power if not handled with caution, care, and innovativeness. This report assesses all the positive potential benefits digitalization brings to sustainable development for all. It also highlights the potential negative impacts and challenges going forward, particularly for those impacted by the ‘digital divide’ that excludes primarily people left behind during the Industrial Revolution like the billion that go hungry every night and the billion who do not have access to electricity. The report outlines the necessary preconditions for a successful digital transformation, including prosperity, social inclusion, environmental sustainability and good governance. Importantly it outlines some of the dramatic social implications associated with an increasingly digital future. It also covers a topic that so far has not been sufficiently dealt with in the cross-over discussions between sustainability and the Digital Revolution, that is, the considerations about related governance aspects. Completion of this report has involved voluntary and sustained contributions from many colleagues around the world. Special thanks and gratitude go to all contributing institutions that provided personal and institutional support throughout. We are especially grateful for the contribution and support of the IIASA team that has provided substantial in-kind support and vision needed to conduct an initiative of this magnitude. Special thanks go to my IIASA colleagues Caroline Zimm and Pat Wagner for coordinating and managing TWI2050, to all authors and contributors without whose knowledge and dedication this report would not have been possible. iii The publication of this report in July 2019 and its launch during the United Nations High-level Political Forum is timely. TWI2050 outlines nine key considerations on the linkages between the digital and sustainability revolutions – both positive and negative – and the critical issues that need to be addressed to maximize the opportunities and minimize the risks of digitalization to a sustainable future. It is my belief that this report will provide policy and decision makers around the world with invaluable new knowledge to inform action and commitment towards achieving the SDGs in a new era. I hope it will be a roadmap toward a sustainable future in the Digital Anthropocene and will divert from the alternatives that transcend the planetary boundaries and leave billionsNebojsa behind. Nakicenovic TWI2050 Executive Director iv Table of Contents Key Considerations: Digitalization and Sustainability in the Anthropocene 1. Six Fundamental Transformations for a Sustainable Future for All 7 2. Report Outline 17 3. The Digital Revolution 19 4. Preconditions for a Sustainable Digital Revolution 19 23 4.1 Prosperity 24 4.2 Social Inclusion – Overcoming the Digital Divide 25 4.3 Environmentally Oriented Sustainability 28 5. Digitalization4.4 Inclusive Good and Governance Sustainable and Development Peace 29 33 5.1 A Systems View 33 5.2 Human Capacity & Demography 33 5.2.1 Health 33 5.2.2 Education 38 5.2.3 Gender Equality and Empowerment 42 5.3 Consumption & Production 44 5.3.1 Additive Manufacturing 46 5.3.2 Financial Services 48 5.3.3 The Future of Work 51 5.4 Decarbonization & Energy 53 5.4.1 Energy Systems 53 5.4.2 Climate 57 5.5 Food, Biosphere & Water 59 5.5.1 Agriculture and Food
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