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UNDERTOW in the THIRD WAVE: UNDERSTANDING the REVERSION from DEMOCRACY by PETER ALLYN FERGUSON a THESIS SUBMITTED in PARTIAL

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UNDERTOW in the THIRD WAVE: UNDERSTANDING the REVERSION from DEMOCRACY by PETER ALLYN FERGUSON a THESIS SUBMITTED in PARTIAL UNDERTOW IN THE THIRD WAVE: UNDERSTANDING THE REVERSION FROM DEMOCRACY by PETER ALLYN FERGUSON A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (Political Science) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) February 2009 © Peter Allyn Ferguson Abstract In 2007, the world suffered a net decline in freedom for the second successive year for the first time in fifteen years. There are indications of global democratic stagnation. Coups and democratic reversions continue to occur. Why do regimes sometimes experience reversions away from democracy? An analysis of data from 1972-2003 indicates that for every $1 increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, the odds of a democratic reversion decrease 0.2%; for each 1% increase in GDP growth, the odds of a democratic reversal decrease 9.2%; and, for each 1 unit increase in Consumer Price Index (CPI), there is a 4.1% increase in the likelihood of democratic reversion. When the analysis is limited strictly to a comparison of democratic reversion cases and ongoing democratic regimes, variables addressing political institutional configurations, vulnerabilities to international pressures and civilian control over the military are either insignificant or provide very little purchase for explaining variance on the dependent variable. The dissertation includes thirty case studies of reversions from democracy, representing one universe of such cases from 1975-2003. Based on an analysis of these cases, several conclusions may be drawn. On economic issues, the case studies indicate we should be cautious in overstating the importance of economic performance and they draw attention to the problematic nature of analyses based on one year lags. The importance of legislative gridlock, particularly during an economic crisis is highlighted. High levels of legislative fractionalization are found to increase reversion risks. Younger democracies are also found to be more vulnerable, as each additional year a democratic regime is in existence decreases reversion risks by 3.8%. The consideration of international influences on costs associated with reversion decisions is found to be relevant. The case analysis indicates attempts to assert civilian control over the military are likely to increase reversion risks. Based on a rational choice analysis and a case study of the Philippines, higher levels of democratic uncertainty are found to reduce reversion risks by allowing actors to tolerate lower levels of goods in light of the potential for future democratic change. ii Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................... ii Table of Contents ............................................................................................................... iii List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures .................................................................................................................. viii Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ ix Dedication .......................................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 2 The Relevance of Democratic Reversion Research ........................................................ 5 The Limits of Consolidation Research ......................................................................... 11 State of the Democratic Reversion Literature ............................................................... 15 The Competition between Structure and Choice .......................................................... 20 The Plan ........................................................................................................................ 23 Chapter 2: Theoretical Orientation and Methodology ...................................................... 29 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 30 Economic Influences ..................................................................................................... 31 Political Institutional Influences ................................................................................... 35 International Influences ................................................................................................ 37 Military Influences ........................................................................................................ 39 Democratic Uncertainty ................................................................................................ 42 Data and Methods ......................................................................................................... 44 Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 59 Chapter 3: Economic Issues and Democratic Reversion .................................................. 72 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 73 Cross-National, Time-Series Analysis .......................................................................... 76 Case Study Data Analysis ............................................................................................. 85 Case Level Analysis ...................................................................................................... 96 iii Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 117 Chapter 4: Political Institutions and Democratic Reversion ........................................... 124 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 125 Cross-National, Time-Series Analysis ........................................................................ 127 Case Study Data Analysis ........................................................................................... 138 Case Level Analysis .................................................................................................... 140 Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 145 Chapter 5: International Influences and Democratic Reversion ..................................... 155 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 156 Cross-National, Time-Series Analysis ........................................................................ 159 Case Study Data Analysis ........................................................................................... 161 Case Level Analysis .................................................................................................... 165 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 181 Chapter 6: The Military and Democratic Reversion ....................................................... 188 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 189 Civilian Control .......................................................................................................... 193 Cross-National, Time-Series Analysis ........................................................................ 195 Case Study Data Analysis ........................................................................................... 198 Case Level Analysis .................................................................................................... 203 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 223 Chapter 7: Democratic Uncertainty and Democratic Reversion ..................................... 231 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 232 Uncertainty in the Democratization Literature ........................................................... 234 Recent Interpretations of Uncertainty ......................................................................... 237 Flaws in Existing Interpretations ................................................................................ 241 Rehabilitating Democratic Uncertainty ...................................................................... 244 A Rational Choice Account ........................................................................................ 248 Discussion ................................................................................................................... 254 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 257 Chapter 8: Democratic Uncertainty and Regime Stability in the Philippines
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