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Downloaded 09/27/21 06:19 AM UTC 4898 JOURNAL of CLIMATE VOLUME 26 Et Al
VOLUME 26 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 15JULY 2013 Estimating the Permafrost-Carbon Climate Response in the CMIP5 Climate Models Using a Simplified Approach ELEANOR J. BURKE AND CHRIS D. JONES Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom CHARLES D. KOVEN Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California (Manuscript received 31 July 2012, in final form 5 November 2012) ABSTRACT Under climate change, thawing permafrost may cause a release of carbon, which has a positive feedback on the climate. The permafrost-carbon climate response (gPF) is the additional permafrost-carbon made vulnerable to decomposition per degree of global temperature increase. A simple framework was adopted to estimate gPF using the database for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The projected changes in the annual maximum active layer thicknesses (ALTmax) over the twenty-first century were quantified using CMIP5 soil temperatures. These changes were combined with the observed distri- bution of soil organic carbon and its potential decomposability to give gPF.ThisestimateofgPF is dependent on the biases in the simulated present-day permafrost. This dependency was reduced by combining a ref- erence estimate of the present-day ALTmax with an estimate of the sensitivity of ALTmax to temperature 21 from the CMIP5 models. In this case, gPF was from 26to266 PgC K (5th–95th percentile) with a radi- 2 2 ative forcing of 0.03–0.29 W m 2 K 1. This range is mainly caused by uncertainties in the amount of soil carbon deeper in the soil profile and whether it thaws over the time scales under consideration. -
Uvic ESCM 2.10)
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-373 Preprint. Discussion started: 21 February 2020 c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. Evaluation of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model version 2.10 (UVic ESCM 2.10) Nadine Mengis1,2, David P. Keller1, Andrew MacDougall3, Michael Eby4, Nesha Wright2, Katrin J. Meissner5, Andreas Oschlies1, Andreas Schmittner6, H. Damon Matthews7, Kirsten Zickfeld2 1Biogeochemical Modelling Department, GEOMAR – Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany 2Geography Department, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada 3Climate and Environment, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS, Canada 4School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada 5Climate Change Research Centre, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia and The Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia 6College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA 7Concordia University, Montréal, Canada Correspondence to: Nadine Mengis ([email protected]) 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-373 Preprint. Discussion started: 21 February 2020 c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. Abstract. The University of Victoria Earth system climate model of intermediate complexity has been a useful tool in recent 2 assessments of long-term climate changes, including both paleo-climate modelling and uncertainty assessments of future warming. Since the last official release of the UVic ESCM 2.9, and the two official updates during the last decade, considerable 4 model development has taken place among multiple research groups. The new version 2.10 of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) presented here, and to be used in the 6th phase of the coupled model intercomparison 6 project (CMIP6), combines and brings together multiple model developments and new components that have taken place since the last official release of the model. -
Projecting the Release of Carbon from Permafrost Soils Using a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Modelling Approach
Biogeosciences, 13, 2123–2136, 2016 www.biogeosciences.net/13/2123/2016/ doi:10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach Andrew H. MacDougall and Reto Knutti Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Correspondence to: Andrew H. MacDougall ([email protected]) Received: 14 October 2015 – Published in Biogeosciences Discuss.: 10 December 2015 Revised: 26 February 2016 – Accepted: 3 April 2016 – Published: 12 April 2016 Abstract. The soils of the northern hemispheric permafrost 1 Introduction region are estimated to contain 1100 to 1500 Pg of carbon. A substantial fraction of this carbon has been frozen and there- Soils of the northern hemispheric permafrost region are es- fore protected from microbial decay for millennia. As anthro- timated to contain between 1100 and 1500 Pg C of organic pogenic climate warming progresses much of this permafrost matter (Hugelius et al., 2014), roughly twice the quantity is expected to thaw. Here we conduct perturbed model exper- of carbon held in the pre-industrial atmosphere. As anthro- iments on a climate model of intermediate complexity, with pogenic climate warming progresses, permafrost soils are ex- an improved permafrost carbon module, to estimate with pected to thaw exposing large quantities of organic matter to formal uncertainty bounds the release of carbon from per- microbial decay, releasing CO2 and CH4 to the -
Causes and Implications of Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Loss!
Causes and Implications of Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Loss! Julienne Stroeve" National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder ! What is sea ice?! •# Frozen surface of the ocean – originates within ocean What is sea ice! !# Sea ice does not include land ice (glaciers, ice sheets) !# Does not include other floating ice (ice shelves, icebergs) !# If sea ice melts, sea level will not rise Image Courtesy Sebastian Copeland! Annual sea ice variability! Maximum Sea Ice Extent! Minimum Sea Ice Extent! 6 2! 14-16 x10 km ~7 x106km2! Siberia! Siberia! Maximum extent occurs in February/March (14-16 million km2 The shrinking summer ice cover! September 2012: A new record low! Sept 16, 2007: 4.17 million sq. km! Sept 14, 2008: 4.51 million sq. km! Sept 12, 2009: 5.10 million sq. km! Sept 19, 2010: 4.60 million sq. km! Sept 9, 2011: 4.33 million sq. km! Sept 16, 2012: 3.41 million sq. km! Trend = -14.3%/dec! Left: Univ. Bremen; right: NSIDC! What is causing the sea ice to retreat?! Warmer temperatures in all seasons Enhanced ice-albedo feedback Earlier development of open water More open water in September Thinner spring ice Warmer autumn temperatures Warmer in all seasons! 925 hPa air temperature anomalies from ERA-Interim averaged from 60-90N! Earlier formation of open water! Negative trends in summer ice concentration imply a corresponding reduction in albedo May June July Trends from 1979 to 2012 in %/decade! Enhancement of the ice-albedo feedback! InToday the 1970s! ! Leads to increased absorbed solar energy! 2002-2008 anomalies in cumulative absorbed SW relative to 1979-2008 mean Cumulative anomalies for August locally exceed 150 MJm-2, representing an equivalent melt of ice thickness of 49 cm! Data from JRA-25 Reanalysis! Figure from Stroeve et al., 2012! Ice is becoming younger and thinner! •# At the same time the extent has decreased, the ice has become younger and thinner. -
Differences in Soil Parametres Between Disturbed and Undisturbed
Difference in soil parameters between disturbed and undisturbed permafrost soil in Northwest Territories, Canada A thesis presented for the degree of Bachelor of Science at Institute of Environmental Science and Geography University of Potsdam Germany Frieder Tautz Pr¨asidentenstr. 73 16816 Neuruppin Matrikel-Nr.: 780602 [email protected] Potsdam, October 12, 2020 1st supervisor Prof. Dr. Guido Grosse Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Polar- und Meeresforschung Telegrafenberg A45-N, 14473 Potsdam 2nd supervisor Prof. Dr. Julia Boike Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Polar- und Meeresforschung Telegrafenberg A6, 14473 Potsdam Contents List of Figures iv List of Tablesv Acronyms vi 1 Introduction1 1.1 Scientific background........................2 1.1.1 Permafrost distribution and properties..........2 1.1.2 Permafrost carbon climate feedback............3 1.1.3 Thermokarst.........................5 1.1.4 Soil Properties.......................8 1.2 Site description........................... 10 1.3 Disturbance categories....................... 12 2 Methods 14 2.1 Sample extraction in-situ...................... 14 2.2 Acitve layer and permafrost subsampling............. 16 2.3 Laboratory Analyses........................ 18 2.3.1 Biochemistry........................ 18 2.3.2 Grain size analysis..................... 19 2.3.3 Ice content.......................... 21 2.3.4 Soil Organic Carbon Content............... 22 2.3.5 Radiocarbon dating..................... 22 2.4 Statistical approach......................... 23 3 Results 25 3.1 General properties......................... 25 3.2 Biochemistry in active layer and permafrost........... 28 3.3 Grain size distribution....................... 28 3.4 Disturbance categories....................... 29 ii 4 Discussion 33 4.1 General Properties......................... 34 4.2 Biochemistry in active layer and permafrost........... 35 4.3 Grain size distribution....................... 37 4.4 Disturbance categories....................... 37 4.5 Limitations and errors...................... -
WG-II:11Th /INF. 1 (4.VIII.2017) Agenda Item: 2 ENGLISH ONLY
IPCC WORKING GROUP II – ELEVENTH SESSION Montreal, 7 – 8 September 2017 WG-II:11th /INF. 1 (4.VIII.2017) Agenda Item: 2 ENGLISH ONLY WORKING GROUP II CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT (AR6) Background information (Submitted by the Co-Chairs of Working Group II on behalf of the Working Group II Bureau) IPCC Secretariat c/o WMO • 7bis, Avenue de la Paix • C.P. 2300 • 1211 Geneva 2 • Switzerland telephone : +41 (0) 22 730 8208 / 54 / 84 • fax : +41 (0) 22 730 8025 / 13 • email : [email protected] • www.ipcc.ch WORKING GROUP II CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Background Information (Prepared by the Co-Chairs of Working Group II on behalf of the Working Group II Bureau) TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1 2. CALL FOR NOMINATIONS.................................................................................................... 1 3. PARTICIPANT SELECTION .................................................................................................. 2 4. SCOPING MEETING ............................................................................................................. 2 BOX 1: WGII AR6 PROPOSED OUTLINE ..................................................................................... 7 5. ANNOTATED PROPOSED OUTLINE OF CHAPTERS FROM THE SCOPING MEETING .... 7 6. INCORPORATION OF CROSS-CUTTING THEMES .......................................................... 24 7. LINKAGES ACROSS THE -
ACADEMIC CALENDAR 2020-2021 I
StFX ACADEMIC CALENDAR 2020-2021 i St. Francis Xavier University Academic Calendar 2020-2021 Toll free 1-877-867-StFX(7839) PO Box 5000, Antigonish, Nova Scotia, Canada B2G 2W5 ii 2020-2021 StFX ACADEMIC CALENDAR Quaecumque Sunt Vera Whatsoever things are true The St. Francis Xavier University motto is taken from the letter of Paul to the Philippians. The following is an excerpt from the epistle. I want you to be happy, always happy in the Lord; I repeat, what I want is your happiness. Let your tolerance be evident to everyone: the Lord is very near. There is no need to worry; but if there is anything you need, pray for it, asking God for it with prayer and thanksgiving, and that peace of God, which is so much greater than we can understand, will guard your hearts and your thoughts, in Christ Jesus. Finally, brothers and sisters, fill your minds witheverything that is true, everything that is noble, everything that is good and pure, everything that we love and honour, and everything that can be thought virtuous or worthy of praise. Phil. 4: 4‑9 StFX ACADEMIC CALENDAR 2020-2021 iii Table of Contents 6.6 Bachelor of Education Certification 24 6.7 Diploma in Adult Education 24 Calendar of Events 2020 - 2021 ....................................v 6.8 Certificate in Elementary Mathematics Education 24 A Tradition of Excellence .............................................vi 6.9 Certificate in Outdoor Education 25 University Personnel...................................................viii 7. Faculty of Science Regulations .........................25 7.1 General Regulations 25 Board of Governors .....................................................viii 7.2 Engineering 28 University Senate .......................................................viii 7.3 Bachelor of Arts and Science 28 Coady International Institute .....................................viii 7.4 Possible Pathways in the Sciences 28 1. -
Simulating High-Latitude Permafrost Regions by the JSBACH Terrestrial Ecosystem Model
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 631–647, 2014 Open Access www.geosci-model-dev.net/7/631/2014/ Geoscientific doi:10.5194/gmd-7-631-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Model Development Simulating high-latitude permafrost regions by the JSBACH terrestrial ecosystem model A. Ekici1,2, C. Beer1,3, S. Hagemann4, J. Boike5, M. Langer5, and C. Hauck2 1Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany 2Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland 3Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM) and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden 4Department of Land in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany 5Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany Correspondence to: A. Ekici ([email protected]) Received: 1 March 2013 – Published in Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.: 3 May 2013 Revised: 28 February 2014 – Accepted: 4 March 2014 – Published: 22 April 2014 Abstract. The current version of JSBACH incorporates phe- Based on a simple relationship between air temperature nomena specific to high latitudes: freeze/thaw processes, and the permafrost probability, Gruber (2012) estimated that coupling thermal and hydrological processes in a layered soil around 22 % (±3 %) of the Northern Hemisphere land is un- scheme, defining a multilayer snow representation and an in- derlain by permafrost. During the past glacial/interglacial cy- sulating moss cover. Evaluations using comprehensive Arctic cles vast amounts of organic matter have been accumulated data sets show comparable results at the site, basin, continen- in these soils (Zimov et al., 2006). With the abundant re- tal and circumarctic scales. -
Limitations of the 1% Experiment As the Benchmark Idealized Experiment for Carbon Cycle Intercomparison in C4MIP
Response to reviews of manuscript: Limitations of the 1% experiment as the benchmark idealized experiment for carbon cycle intercomparison in C4MIP I appreciate the thoughtful comments of both reviewers and have responded to each comment below. The reviews are copied verbatim and are italicized. Author responses are in regular font. Changes made to the manuscript are blue. Response to Reviewer 1: Review of "Limitations of the 1% experiment as the benchmark idealised experiment for carbon cycle inter comparison in C4MIP", by Andrew MacDougall. This is a well written, clear description of a proposed alternative experiment to the now standard 1% experiments often used to quantify and compare carbon cycle feedbacks in coupled climate carbon cycle models (so-called C4MIP experiments). I found this a useful and thoughtful paper which makes some very salient comments about existing experimental design and offers some insights into the limitations of the standard experiments compared to new "logistic" CO2 pathways. The paper show cases the new pathways using the UVIC EMIC. In general, both personally and as a co-chair of C4MIP, I find this level of analysis and engagement very pleasing to see, and it will certainly help drive the further evolution of C4MIP in the future (I’m not yet ready to think about CMIP7 though!). C4MIP is explicitly aimed at ESMs, although we welcome EMIC participation. But perhaps for a next generation we should more explicitly engage with EMICs and provide additional simulations which EMICs can lead on to supplement joint ESM/EMIC runs. In fact it was a requirement of CMIP6 that no MIPs added new experiments which had not been tried by at least some models. -
Impacts on Arctic Sea Ice Predictions of Extreme Weather and Natural
Impacts on Arctic Sea Ice Predictions of Extreme Weather and Natural Variability Mark Serreze National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder The National Snow and Ice Data Center… Manages and Provides distributes tools for scientific data data access Researches the cryosphere Supports local and data and traditional science knowledge Educates the public Supports data about the users cryosphere Two views of the Arctic NSIDC (left) and (right), http://lance.nasa.gov/imagery/rapid-response/ We are losing the perennial sea ice cover 1) Sept 16, 2012: 3.41 million sq. km 2) Sept 16, 2007: 4.17 million sq. km 3) Sept 9, 2011: 4.33 million sq. km 4) Sept 14, 2008: 4.51 million sq. km 5) Sept 19, 2010: 4.60 million sq. km Left: Univ. Bremen; right: NSIDC Putting September 2012 into perspective September 1980 September 2012 More than a 40% reduction compared to the late 1970s Courtesy Walt Meier, NSIDC Putting the satellite record into a longer perspective Summer average extent based on paleoclimate records compared to modern observations – a “hockey stick”, but with the blade pointing down Kinnard et al., 2011 Arctic summer temperatures for the past 2000 years A composite of 23 proxy records from lake sediments, ice cores, and tree rings. relative to 1961-1990 reference period. The red line shows recent Arctic temperatures based on instrumental observations. Another “hockey stick” Adapted from Kaufman et al. [2009] Svante Arrhenius Back in 1896, the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius (winner of the Nobel Prize in chemistry) argued that rises in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would warm Earth’s surface and that the warming would be especially large in the polar regions (Arrhenius, 1896). -
Long-Term Drainage Effects on Carbon Fluxes of an Arctic Permafrost Ecosystem
Long-term drainage effects on carbon fluxes of an Arctic permafrost ecosystem Dissertation zur Erlangungen des akademischen Grades doctor rerum naturalium (Dr. rer. nat.) vorgelegt dem Rat der Chemisch-Geowissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena von Fanny Kittler, M. Sc. Geoökologie, geboren am 16. Juli 1988 in Dresden Gutachter: 1. Prof. Dr. Sabine Attinger, Universität Potsdam 2. Prof. Dr. Martin Heimann, MPI Biogeochemie Tag der Verteidigung: 07.08.2017 Abstract Permafrost landscapes in the Northern high latitudes with their massive organic carbon stocks are critically important for the global carbon cycle. Still large uncertainties in the sustainability of these carbon pools under future climate conditions persist, to a large part caused by limited understanding of mechanisms and drivers dominating permafrost carbon cycling due to scarce observational databases for Arctic permafrost ecosystems. To address these open issues, a continuous observation program was established within an Arctic permafrost ecosystem that represents a floodplain of the Kolyma river near the city of Chersky, NE Siberia, Russia. Year-round eddy- covariance measurements from a wet tussock tundra ecosystem focused on the ecosystem–atmosphere exchange fluxes of carbon (CO2 and CH4). Recent observations started mid-July 2013 and are still ongoing, while historic measurements are available for the period 2002–2005. Since 2004 part of the observation area has been disturbed by a circular drainage ditch, altering the soil water conditions in the surrounding area in a way that is expected for degrading of ice-rich permafrost under a warming climate. Parallel observations over a disturbed tundra ecosystem (i.e., drained) and a control tundra ecosystem aim to evaluate the disturbance effect on the carbon cycle budgets and the dominating biogeochemical mechanisms. -
Projecting the Release of Carbon from Permafrost Soils Using a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Modelling Approach Andrew H
Manuscript prepared for Biogeosciences with version 2015/04/24 7.83 Copernicus papers of the LATEX class copernicus.cls. Date: 26 February 2016 Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach Andrew H. MacDougall1 and Reto Knutti1 1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. Correspondence to: Andrew MacDougall ([email protected]) Abstract. The soils of the northern hemisphere permafrost region are estimated to contain 1100 to 1500 Pg of carbon. A substantial fraction of this carbon has been frozen and therefore protected from microbial decay for millennia. As anthropogenic climate warming progresses much of this permafrost is expected to thaw. Here we conduct perturbed model experiments on a climate model 5 of intermediate complexity, with an improved permafrost carbon module, to estimate with formal uncertainty bounds the release of carbon from permafrost soils by year 2100 and 2300 CE. We estimate that by year 2100 the permafrost region may release between 56 (13 to 118) Pg C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 102 (27 to 199) Pg C under RCP 8.5, with substantially more to be released under each scenario by year 2300. Our analysis suggests that the 10 two parameters that contribute most to the uncertainty in the release of carbon from permafrost soils are the size of the non-passive fraction of the permafrost carbon pool and the equilibrium climate sensitivity. A subset of 25 model variants are integrated 8000 years into the future under continued RCP forcing. Under the moderate RCP 4.5 forcing a remnant near-surface permafrost region persists in the high Arctic, eventually developing a new permafrost carbon pool.