AMSTATNEWS the Membership Magazine of the American Statistical Association •

MAY 2018 • Issue #491 AMSTATNEWS The Membership Magazine of the American Statistical Association • http://magazine.amstat.org

JOIN US IN VANCOUVER ! Highlights of the JSM 2018 Program

ALSO: 2017–2018 Academic Salary Survey

Early-Career Statistician Offers Language, Tools for Establishing Influence WHAT’S GOING ON IN HIS GRAPH What’s Going On in This Graph? is a new monthly activity from the ASA and he New or imes.

Students will answer the following questions: • What do you notice? WHO: Grades 7–12 math,? English, and social • What do you wonder? studies students • What’s the story this graph is telling? WHAT: A free, online feature of The New York Times in partnership with the American Statistical Association On release Tuesdays, moderators will respond WHEN: Second Tuesday of each month during the in real time to students’ entries. school year and in the archives thereafter On reveal Fridays, moderators will reveal the WHY: Using timely New York Times graphs that are graph and its article, summarize the responses compelling to students, learn how to with shout-outs, ask additional questions, and critically think and write about all kinds of graphs give three stat nuggets—de nitions of statistical HOW: A class starter, which can take just 10–15 minutes terms and where they are seen in the graph. www.amstat.org/Ngraphchat AMSTATNEWS MAY 2018 • ISSUE #491

Executive Director Ron Wasserstein: [email protected] features Associate Executive Director and Director of Operations Stephen Porzio: [email protected] 3 President’s Corner Director of Science Policy 5 Census, NIH, NSF Among Winners in Steve Pierson: [email protected] FY18 Federal Budget Director of Strategic Initiatives and Outreach Donna LaLonde: [email protected] 8 CHANCE Highlights: Special Issue Looks at Statistics Behind Defense and National Security Director of Education Rebecca Nichols: [email protected] 9 Princeton Graduate Student Awarded ASA/AAAS Mass Media Fellowship Managing Editor Megan Murphy: [email protected] 10 2017-2018 Academic Salary Survey Editor and Content Strategist 16 Journal of Privacy and Confidentiality Moves to Cornell Val Nirala: [email protected]

Production Coordinators/Graphic Designer Megan Ruyle: [email protected]

Advertising Manager Claudine Donovan: [email protected] columns Contributing Staff Members Naomi Friedman • James Earle • Lara Harmon • Kathleen Wert 20 STATS4GOOD Amstat News welcomes news items and letters from readers on matters of interest to the association and the profession. Address correspondence to Data Resources for Data for Good Researchers Managing Editor, Amstat News, American Statistical Association, 732 North This column is written for those interested in learning about the world Washington Street, Alexandria VA 22314-1943 USA, or email amstat@ amstat.org. Items must be received by the first day of the preceding month of Data for Good, where statistical analysis is dedicated to good causes to ensure appearance in the next issue (for example, June 1 for the July issue). that benefit our lives, our communities, and our world. If you would Material can be sent as a Microsoft Word document, PDF, or within an email. like to know more or have ideas for articles, contact David Corliss at Articles will be edited for space. Accompanying artwork will be accepted [email protected]. in graphics file formats only (.jpg, etc.), minimum 300 dpi. No material in WordPerfect will be accepted. 22 STATtr@k Amstat News (ISSN 0163-9617) is published monthly by the American Observations About Taking Control of Your Statistical Association, 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria VA 22314- 1943 USA. Periodicals postage paid at Alexandria, Virginia, and additional Career Path mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Amstat News, 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria VA 22314-1943 USA. Send Canadian STATtr@k is a column in Amstat News and a website geared toward peo- address changes to APC, PO Box 503, RPO West Beaver Creek, Rich Hill, ple who are in a statistics program, recently graduated from a statistics ON L4B 4R6. Annual subscriptions are $50 per year for nonmembers. Amstat program, or recently entered the job world. To read more articles like this News is the member publication of the ASA. For annual membership rates, one, visit the website at http://stattrak.amstat.org. If you have suggestions see www.amstat.org/join or contact ASA Member Services at (888) 231-3473. for future articles, or would like to submit an article, please email Megan American Statistical Association Murphy, Amstat News managing editor, at [email protected]. 732 North Washington Street Alexandria, VA 22314–1943 USA (703) 684–1221 24 MASTER’S NOTEBOOK ASA GENERAL: [email protected] Early-Career Statistician Offers Language, ADDRESS CHANGES: [email protected] AMSTAT EDITORIAL: [email protected] Tools for Establishing Influence ADVERTISING: [email protected] This column is written for statisticians with master’s degrees and highlights WEBSITE: http://magazine.amstat.org areas of employment that will benefit statisticians at the master’s level. Printed in USA © 2018 Comments and suggestions should be sent to Megan Murphy, Amstat News American Statistical Association managing editor, at [email protected].

26 PASTIMES OF STATISTICIANS What Does Wayne Nelson Like to Do When He Is Not Being a Statistician? ® This column focuses on what statisticians do when they are not being stat- The American Statistical Association is the world’s largest isticians. If you would like to share your pastime with readers, please email community of statisticians. The ASA supports excellence in Megan Murphy, Amstat News managing editor, at [email protected]. the development, application, and dissemination of statistical science through meetings, publications, membership services, education, accreditation, and advocacy. Our members serve in industry, government, and academia in more than 90 countries, advancing research and promoting sound statistical practice to inform public policy and improve human welfare. Quality and Productivity Section Mentoring Program departments 17 statistician's view NOW OPEN! Who Is the American Statistician? Visit the section on the ASA Community Or, Is It Data Scientist (https://bit.ly/2JHgI35) for more information. (You’ll have to log in first.) Details will also 28 meetings appear in next month’s Amstat News. Join Us in Vancouver! Highlights of the JSM 2018 Program The Founders Award Featured Speakers Online Articles Named Lectures The following articles in this issue can be found online at http://magazine.amstat.org. Create Your Own Vancouver Adventure JSM for Newbies NOMINATIONS SOUGHT for 2018 Student Opportunities William Hunter Award. June 30 is the 2018 NISS Writing Workshop for Junior application deadline for the William G. Hunter Researchers (at JSM) Award, sponsored by the Statistics Division of Applications Now Being Accepted for the the American Society for Quality. The award Diversity Mentoring Program at JSM is presented at the Fall Technical Conference in October. Download award criteria and a nomination form from the ASQ site (http:// CAPILANO SUSPENSION BRIDGE asq.org/statistics/about/awards-statistics. html) or visit Amstat News online for details: AdventureCreate Your Own http://magazine.amstat.org/blog/category/ Vancouver Adventure! membernews/awardnews. Page 33

IN MEMORIAM Sadly, ASA member Mary E. Reuder passed away recently. In any era, she was remarkably well trained as a statistician, member news experimental psychologist, and licensed 40 People News clinical psychologist, but particularly so at 41 Section • Chapter • Committee News a time when women were not as active in academia as they are today. http://magazine. 45 Professional Opportunities amstat.org Follow us on Twitter www.twitter.com/AmstatNews

Join the ASA Community http://community.amstat.org

Like us on Facebook www.facebook.com/AmstatNews

Leading Outside Our Comfort Zone

his month, I want you to At Lilly, we developed a meet Aarti Shah, another leadership program personalized impressive member of the for statisticians in partnership TLeadership Institute Steering with our leadership training Committee. If you are reading the organization and, over the years, President’s Corner because you are I have seen so many statisticians interested in leadership, then you benefit from this program. Today’s may already know Aarti or have corporations need quantitative heard of her, because she has been decision-makers and leaders who a strong advocate of leadership can bring immense business and Jon Gardiner by Photo UNC-Chapel Hill training for many years and pio- customer value, and I truly believe Lisa LaVange neered on-the-job training. statisticians are well-equipped for Aarti directed the statistical and these roles if they take the time analytics group at Eli Lilly, where to invest in and develop their she was instrumental in develop- leadership skills. ing a comprehensive leadership training program for her staff. I Aarti Shah With the ASA providing a remember walking past the Lilly Photo courtesy of Eli Lilly & Company reception at JSM shortly after I breadth of leadership offerings, I joined the FDA, and although roles beyond statistics. Her own hope many of you will take the I could not attend the reception career is an example of doing just opportunity and make the time as an FDA employee (conflict of that. I asked Aarti to share a few to invest in yourself and always interest), I was able to watch the thoughts, and here is what she had be a student of leadership. slide show about the program from to say: the doorway. I was so impressed. The institute’s master plan For a company to invest that much I am thrilled to see one of the involves offering training oppor- in developing their own staff’s presidential initiatives focused tunities at the pre-career, early- to leadership capabilities was truly on leadership development and mid-career, and mid- to late- marvelous to see! customized for the various stages career stages. You read about Aarti’s own career has followed of one’s career. This is truly terrific, our pre-career training ideas a steep leadership trajectory. From and I applaud Lisa for her efforts in the March issue of this col- leading the statistics and analyt- on this very important topic. umn. For the early- to mid-career ics group, she was appointed to opportunity, we are planning a direct an entire drug development Who would have thought a follow-up experience for the JSM program, and—today—she sits in statistician one day would be 2018 Preparing Statisticians for the C-suite as chief information asked to serve as the CIO with Leadership: How to See the Big officer (CIO) of Lilly, reporting to responsibilities for information Picture and Have More Influence the CEO and serving on the technology, information security, course that will be open to course executive team. advanced analytics, and digital registrants and past participants. She shared with us her tremen- Our target audience is statisticians health? As I reflect on my 24-year dously insightful views on what it 5–10 years post-graduation who career at Lilly, I have to say the means to be a leader in the phar- have an interest in leadership or company’s and my investment in maceutical industry, and what it already hold leadership positions leadership development, along takes to do so successfully. Aarti and want to enhance their learn- with access to superb mentors, emphasized the need for statisti- ing. During the year, we plan to have enabled me to take on both cal leaders to develop confidence hold several workshops, both in- traditional and nontraditional and move out of their comfort person and web-based, focusing zone as they take on leadership roles as a statistician. may 2018 amstat news 3 on a range of skills. Information The interconnections across But here we are. So, can we learn can be found at https://sites.google. functional or geographical from our collective past to finally com/view/leadershipinstitute/home. boundaries are becoming right this wrong? I hope so. The One module will emphasize the key sources of innovation and ASA hopes so. And we have a importance of developing busi- collaboration. Speaking from my task force set up to do just that. ness acumen as a core leadership personal experience, innovation Last November, the ASA competency, and we plan to draw and collaboration are happening Board unanimously approved upon Aarti’s expertise in building in the ASA Safety Working a task force on sexual harass- this module. Group (of the Biopharmaceutical ment and asked Leslie McClure Another learning module we Section) through our close to chair. The task force was plan to build as part of the year- collaboration with the global DIA proposed in response to con- long experience involves diversity, Safety Communities; they are versations among attendees at considered from two aspects: (i) as happening in the multi-functional the 2017 Women in Statistics statistical leaders, we need to rec- and multi-regional International and Data Science conference. A ognize cultural differences among Council of Harmonisation E17 month later, urgency was added those we lead and to be aware of expert working group. to the process with a blog post- and learn to manage those differ- ing about misguided behavior at ences for more effective leadership a professional statistical meeting. and (ii) as a society, we need to rec- [John] Tukey said statisticians can In seeking members for the ognize there are cultural differences play in everybody’s backyard. task force, my goal was to build in our attitudes toward leadership Our functional capabilities of a balanced group. We have rep- and learn how to develop strong dealing with uncertainty and resentation from former board and effective leaders for our profes- ambiguity in diverse settings members, including a past ASA sion in light of these differences. offer us tremendous leadership president, to speak from a gov- One of my good friends and opportunities. Together, we can ernance standpoint; a survey colleagues who exemplifies what turn our backyard play into a research expert to guide data col- it means to be a leader in a global whole block party! lection; statisticians working in and diverse world is William (Bill) each of our three major sectors Wang. Bill traveled from China to When I thought about col- to discuss differences in work Philadelphia to study for his PhD leagues who could help develop environments; and women of in statistics at Temple University the leadership and global diversi- different generations, reflecting and, after graduation, joined ty training module for the ASA, different work experiences. Merck, where he worked for is it any surprise I turned to Bill? The task force has begun its many years. In 2007, he returned I am excited about building both work, and Leslie’s report as chair to China and built the statistical leadership modules and look will be featured in the June issue organization for Merck in Beijing. forward to the training they will of Amstat News. In the mean- He became instrumental in devel- provide for years to come. time, I wanted you to be aware oping the statistical community of Embracing diversity from a that the ASA is indeed respond- the Drug Information Association training standpoint is infinitely ing to the disturbing reports of (DIA) in China and served on more enjoyable than having to last winter and will do every- the DIA Global Community react to a lack of sensitivity to thing possible to ensure our Leadership Council. In 2017, Bill diversity, but that is what I will members are, and feel, safe at all received the DIA Inspire Award talk about next. ASA events. for Global Connector, recognizing Those of us coming of age In developing leaders and his “meritorious service through a during the 1960s are no strang- taking leadership in address- leadership role that has advanced ers to the challenges that result ing sexual harassment and the mission of DIA and promoted from a lack of diversity in the other inappropriate behav- global collaborations in order to workplace. For me, the chal- iors, the ASA is following the advance health care products to lenge was being female in a field advice of the JSM 2018 theme: patients.” Here is what Bill has largely dominated by men. If #LeadWithStatistics. to say about statistical leadership someone told me early in my from a global perspective: career we would still be facing sex discrimination or intimida- We are living in a diverse tion in this decade of this centu- and interconnected world. ry, I would not have believed it.

4 amstat news may 2018 Census, NIH, NSF Among Winners in FY18 Federal Budget FY19 Budget Process Just Underway Steve Pierson, ASA Director of Science Policy

fter two short government FY18 Final Budget the bureau prepares for the decen- shutdowns, a February deal nial census in 23 months. between Congress and the The additional discretionary The amount is a welcome sur- administrationA raising the spend- funding provided in the February prise because the House and Senate ing caps allowed the resolution of deal allowed Congress to gener- levels released last summer were the fiscal year 2018 (FY18) budget ally reject the widespread cuts pro- only $1.5 billion and the modified in late March. Research-funding posed in the FY18 administration administration request was only agencies and the US Census request (https://bit.ly/2s2WMBQ) $1.7 billion. Advocates are prais- Bureau were among the entities and go above the levels approved ing the bipartisan effort—led by benefitting most. Shortly after the in their summer 2017 bills. Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), Sen. deal, the administration released its The FY18 omnibus bill has a Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Rep. FY19 budget request with hastily $1.36 billion increase (93%) to John Culberson (R-TX), and Rep. amended levels to account for the $2.81 billion for the US Census Jose Serrano (D-NY)—to achieve increased spending caps. Bureau, a much-needed increase as this level at a crucial stage when

FY18 FY19 Table—FY15– FY18 Budgets and Change Change FY19 Requests from from for NIH, NSF, FY15 FY16 FY17 Final FY17 Request FY18 AHRQ, FDA, and Research Agency (amounts in millions of dollars) the 13 Primary Federal Statistical 30311 32311 34229 37084 34767 NIH* 8.3% -6.2% Agencies NSF 7344 7463 7472 7767 4.0% 7472 -3.8% AHRQ 364 334 324 334 3.1% 256 -23.4% *The FY15, FY16, and FY17 levels for FDA 2597 2730 2771 2812 1.5% 3524 25.3% NIH are program Statistical Agency (amounts in millions of dollars) levels.

BEA 96.3 105.1 103.8 99.0 -4.9% 98.0 -1.0% BJS 41.0 41.0 45.5 48.0 5.5% 41.0 -14.6% BLS 592.2 609.0 609.0 612.0 0.5% 609.0 -0.5% BTS 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 0.0% 26.0 0.0% Census 1088.0 1370.0 1457.0 2814.0 93.1% 3797.0 34.9%

EIA 117.0 122.0 122.0 125.0 2.5% 115.0 -8.0%

ERS 85.4 85.4 86.8 86.8 0.0% 45.0 -48.1%

NASS 172.4 168.4 171.2 191.7 12.0% 165.0 -13.9%

NCES 232.1 261.0 258.5 258.5 0.0% 261.5 1.2%

NCHS 155.4 160.4 160.4 160.4 0.0% 155.0 -3.4%

NCSES 58.3 58.3 59.7 59.8

ORES 29.0 25.9 24.0 31.0 29.2% 31.0 0.0%

SOI 36.8 37.8 34.3 33.6 -2.0% 35.2 4.8%

may 2018 amstat news 5 Figure 1: The budgets of five larger statistical agencies normalized to their FY09 levels, along of Justice Statistics (BJS) with the GDP defla- (5.5%) and Energy Information tor to account for Administration (EIA) (2.5%). inflation. Census is Congress also rejected the omitted because of administration’s proposed FY18 the large changes cuts to forensic science research in the decennial and programs at the National census cycle. Budget Institute of Standards and restructuring for https://bit. NASS and NCHS in Technology (NIST) ( FY15 is accounted ly/2GTk4hV), adopting the for in the graph to Senate language to maintain allow for comparison these programs. The bill also over this period. funds the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) at $334 million, restoring it to Figure 2: The budgets its FY16 level after a $10 million of the seven mid-sized cut in FY17 and attempts by the statistical agencies administration and House to cut normalized to their its budget in FY18. Both AHRQ FY09 levels, along with the GDP deflator to and NIST’s forensic science work account for inflation. are slated for cuts in the admin- Budget restructur- istration’s FY19 budget request. ing for ERS in FY15 is Details are forthcom- accounted for in the ing for the FY18 budgets of graph to allow for the Internal Revenue Service comparison over this Statistics of Income Division period. One-time mov- (SOI); National Center for ing costs in FY16 for Science and Engineering Statistics BEA are also omitted. (NCSES); and the Social Security Administration Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics (ORES), the advertising and partnership (BEA) 7.5%—levels that are though estimated FY18 budget campaigns must begin. disappointing considering the levels were inserted at page proof The National Institutes of role of these agencies to our data stage as available. Health (NIH) is also a big win- infrastructure, which is so critical The Bureau of Transportation ner, with a $3 billion increase to US economic prosperity and Statistics (BTS) is not funded (8.8%) over FY17 to $37 bil- competitiveness. through the normal appro- lion, exceeding the prior House The FY18 levels for BLS and priations process—but by the and Senate increases of approxi- NCHS are especially concern- Highway Trust Fund—and so is mately $1 billion and $2 billion, ing because these two agencies not influenced by either the FY18 respectively. The omnibus bill remain at their FY10 levels (as budget deal or the FY19 request. has a welcome 4% increase for shown in Figure 1), thereby jeop- Turning to longer-term the National Science Foundation ardizing their programs, ability to trends—already discussed for (NSF) to $7.87 billion in FY18, innovate, and capacity to keep up BLS and NCHS—one can see thanks to the afore-mentioned with the changing economy (e.g., in Figures 1 and 2 that several congressional leaders. effects of gig economy, AI, robot- other agencies have lost purchas- The omnibus bill flat funds ics) and societal trends. ing power since FY09, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics Returning to more encour- BJS, BTS, ERS, NCES, ORES, (BLS), National Center for aging news, the omnibus bill and SOI. As pointed out last Health Statistics (NCHS), provides a 12% boost to the year, the FY17 SOI budget is off National Center for Education National Agricultural Statistics more than 20% in purchasing Statistics (NCES), and Economic Service (NASS) for the quin- power since FY12, resulting in Research Service (ERS) and cuts quennial Census of Agriculture delayed release of some prod- the Bureau of Economic Analysis and small boosts to the Bureau ucts, reductions of the content

6 amstat news may 2018 Years of Stagnant Funding Impact BLS, NCHS Flat budgets for the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) over many years have affected the agency’s ability to support existing and ongoing data of other products, and ham- collections that monitor the opioid epidemic, track change in health care use, pered efforts to modernize data and chart the prevalence of a wide range of health conditions and risk factors. dissemination practices. Funding limitations have also resulted in staffing level cuts of almost 20%. Even more serious effects of the NCHS budgets will be felt in future years because President’s FY19 NCHS’s ability to invest in innovation has been severely curtailed such that Requested Budget the agency is not able to make advances in the collection of electronic health The administration’s fiscal year records, the use of portable health measurement devices, and the securing of 2019 (FY19) budget was released more detailed information from our vital records. February 12. Besides the increase Without careful methodical innovation, experts caution NCHS will not be able proposed for the US Census to provide critical information about health and health care in the coming years. Bureau and the 50% cut to the To make this point to Politico’s Danny Vinik in fall 2017, NCHS Director Charles ERS, the proposal would gener- Rothwell said, “It’s like driving an Indy car. We keep messing around with the ally cut or flat fund the federal engine, but maybe we ought to replace the engine at some point.” statistical agency budgets as seen in Table 1. For NASS specifi- The situation is equally troubling for Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), whose approximate loss in purchasing power is $80 million since FY09 and whose cally, the quinquennial Census budget also saw a 5% cut in the intervening years. As a result, BLS advocates of Agriculture is fully funded, in the business and economic sectors have been stating a much higher level of but the agricultural estimates urgency when making the case for its budget. Erica Groshen, 2013–2017 BLS programs are nearly $15 million commissioner, recently summarized the situation for a forthcoming Business MORE ONLINE below what is needed to maintain Economics article: Follow the current programs and continue FY19 budget critical modernization efforts. To adjust temporarily, the BLS has slowed improvements, delayed training, developments The request holds the NSF and cut research, and left vacancies unfilled. The agency can recover from at https://bit. NIH close to their FY17 levels such adjustments if funding is restored in subsequent years. However, this ly/2HaucDQ underfunding is not sustainable: and https:// (https://bit.ly/2HaucDQ), which bit.y/2GwaDbS. is relatively welcome news given • First, the BLS cannot devote enough staff, data purchases, IT hardware, the large cuts proposed for the and software to better cover emerging economic trends (including two agencies in FY18 (https://bit. the growing service sectors and the gig and digital economies) and ly/2IKFxtL). The administration expand use of ‘‘big data.’’ This is the path to irrelevance. was on track to again request • Second, short staffing risksserious errors or last-minute delays in major large cuts to the two agencies in statistical releases. Less training, outdated equipment and software, FY19, but amended their request and fewer backups raise risks from mistakes and unforeseen events. (https://bit.ly/2HizzmT) after the This has not happened yet—thanks to BLS staff—but on this path it FY18 and FY19 budget deal will, sooner or later. with Congress that raised the budget caps. If the decline in funding is not reversed, to avoid irrelevance and operational The administration again pro- failures, the BLS must cut or shrink its existing programs. Across-the-board cuts generally do not work for the BLS, as this approach jeopardizes the poses to cut substantially the bud- quality of all BLS data. Instead, the BLS strategic approach is to eliminate get for AHRQ and to fold AHRQ specific product lines or entire surveys in order to maintain the quality and into NIH. The FY19 request has a relevance of the remaining base programs. When deciding on program 25% increase for the US Food and reductions, the BLS has protected its Principle Federal Economic Indicators Drug Administration (FDA) dis- (PFEI) and the programs that are written into or referenced by law for cretionary budget authority, most- allocation or other purposes. Together, these prioritized programs account ly for its medical product work. for more than 85% of the BLS budget. The remaining programs (the Many federal statistical agen- National Longitudinal Survey, JOLTS, American Time Use Survey, Census of cies are facing critical staffing, pro- Fatal Occupational Injuries, and Employee Benefits Survey) provide unique gram, and other budget challenges information on causes and effects of labor market outcomes and account because of years of stagnant bud- for less than 10% of the budget. Cross program technical and management gets. As a result, it remains criti- activities account for the remainder. In any event, even elimination of all cal for the statistical and broader the non-PFEI and non-legally required and referenced programs would be community to urge their members insufficient to fund the budget shortfall. of congress to adequately fund Other federal statistical agencies are also feeling the effect of flat budgets these programs, the cornerstones going back many years. of our data infrastructure and evidence-based policymaking. n may 2018 amstat news 7 CHANCE HIGHLIGHTS Special Issue Looks at Statistics Behind Defense and National Security Scott Evans, CHANCE Magazine Executive Editor

hreats to national security range of problems in counter- come in many forms. In terrorism. Douglas Ray and Paul 2016, Russians hacked Roediger then discuss adaptive Tthe United States election. On testing of DoD systems with a September 11, 2001, 19 mili- binary response. The evolution tants associated with the extrem- of statistical modeling of military ist group al-Qaeda hijacked four recruiting is the topic of an article airplanes, killing nearly 3,000 by Samuel Buttrey, Lyn Whitaker, people. In the 1990s, President and Jonathan Alt. Susan Sanchez Bill Clinton was convinced the discusses the use of data farming, global spread of AIDS was reach- using tools and techniques for the ing catastrophic dimensions and design and analysis of large simu- formally designated HIV a threat lation experiments, as applied to to United States national security defense problems. since it could threaten the stabil- In an independent article, ity of foreign governments, touch Beverly Wood, Megan Mocko, off ethnic wars, and undo recent Michelle Everson, Nick Horton, advances in building free-market and Paul Velleman evaluate clarifi- democracies abroad. cations and updates to the six rec- Defense and national security ommendations for teaching from is the theme of CHANCE 31(2), the original, foundational GAISE a special issue. Six articles discuss College Report. They consider evo- various aspects of national secu- lutions affecting the teaching and rity and how statistics is playing practice of statistics, including the a key role in addressing various rise of data science, an increase in issues. David Banks and Alyson the number of students studying Wilson served as guest editors for statistics, increasing availability of this issue. data, and advances in science and In the first article, Laura technology. They discuss how the Freeman and Catherine Warner original recommendations can be discuss implementing statistical clarified by acknowledging these design and analysis in the evalua- developments. tion of the Department of Defense In the Odds of Justice column, (DoD) operational systems in Mary Gray evaluates the death “Informing the Warfighter— penalty and the role statistics is Why Statistical Testing Methods playing and can play in evaluat- Matter in Defense Testing.” ing its appropriateness. In Visual Ron Fricker and Steven Rigdon Revelations, Howard Wainer and then discuss surveillance meth- Michael Friendly take a histori- ods applied to detecting and cal look at visualization and the tracking deadly diseases such as profound impact visual commu- influenza (swine flu or bird flu), nication has had, going back to Ebola, Zika, or SARS. Banks ancient civilizations. discusses how adversarial risk All ASA members have access analysis, a modeling strategy to CHANCE online by logging in that incorporates an opponent’s to members only and clicking on reasoning, can be applied to a ASA publications. n 8 amstat news may 2018 Princeton Graduate Student Awarded ASA/AAAS Mass Media Fellowship

about everyone in between. He and misunderstanding statistics also contributes to the Massive can be devastating. Cabreros Science Consortium, where he wrote that he would like to Irineo Cabreros writes about the perils of sta- contribute to more “statistically tistical fallacy. Aside from sci- minded journalism.” ence, he loves dancing, making The ASA joined the AAAS rineo Cabreros, a fourth-year and listening to music, playing Mass Media Fellowship sponsor- PhD student at Princeton sports, being outside, and watch- ship programs in 2017 to expand with John Storey, has been ing “Planet Earth.” As an indica- its efforts to promote statistical selectedI as the ASA’s 2018 AAAS tion of his musical talent, he is a capacity in reporting and provide Mass Media Science & recipient of the Jack Kent Cooke statisticians with more media Engineering Fellow (MMF). He Young Artist Award and a two- experience. The ASA Committee will spend 10 weeks this summer time performer on NPR’s “From for Excellence in Statistical training as a science journalist the Top.” Reporting evaluated candidates. with Slate in its NYC offices. In his fellowship application The ASA’s 2017 fellow, Nick Cabreros’ primary research materials, Cabreros wrote that Thieme, also spent 10 weeks interests are in population genet- statistics and journalism have with Slate in its NYC and DC ics, causal inference, and the much to learn from each other; offices, publishing more than 20 interplay between the two to har- journalists require statistical lit- pieces. He also wrote two engag- ness genetic diversity to under- eracy for faithful reporting while ing pieces for ThisIsStatistics, stand gene function. He earned a statisticians require journalis- including “Stats in Action: 3 bachelor’s degree in physics from tic skills to convey their work Data Journalism Skills I’ll Take Harvard University and a Master to the broad community that Back to Grad School” (http:// of Music degree from the New uses it. Noting that statistics is thisisstatistics.org/?s=thieme). England Conservatory. a notoriously confusing subject, A call for 2019 fellows will Among Cabreros’ passions he commented that many peo- be issued this fall. Find out is teaching science, both in the ple who aren’t experts in statis- more about the ASA/AAAS Mass classroom and through writing. tics—including scientists—need Media Fellowship by visiting the He has taught Namibian middle- to understand statistics to do AAAS website at www.aaas.org/ schoolers, Ivy League undergrad- their jobs well and the possible page/about-1. n uates, prison inmates, and just consequences from mishandling

may 2018 amstat news 9 2017–2018 Academic Salary Survey Patricia Hall, Medical College of Georgia; Varghese George, Augusta University; and Donna LaLonde and Ron Wasserstein, ASA

he 2017–2018 academic salary survey includes 3 summarizes salary information on full-time both faculty and nonfaculty statisticians and academic faculty in the mathematical sciences biostatisticians. We received responses from 68 departments by rank, based on nine-month salary. Tinstitutions in the United States. The data included A few cases of statistics and mathematical sciences 1,289 faculty and 148 nonfaculty statisticians with faculty with 12-month salaries were adjusted down gender information. The quartiles and 90th per- by a factor of one-fourth, and a few cases of biosta- centile for relevant categories are provided in the tistics faculty with nine-month salaries were adjusted summary tables. up by a factor of one-third. Tables 4, 5, and 6 provide similar percentiles for the groups in Tables 1, 2, Faculty Data and 3, respectively, stratified by gender. Tables 8, 9, The faculty data set—comprised of 840 males, 448 and 10 provide salary information by tenure status. females, and 1 who identified as transgender— included faculty members in 32 statistics depart- Nonfaculty Data ments (N = 629), 26 biostatistics departments The nonfaculty data set included 148 observations (N = 537), and 17 mathematical sciences depart- from 22 institutions, with 24 observations at the ments (N = 123). doctoral level and 124 at the master’s level. Of the Table 1 summarizes salary information for full- 148 individuals, there were 133 from biostatistics time academic faculty in statistics departments departments, 14 from statistics departments, and 1 by rank and years in rank, based on nine-month from mathematical sciences. Table 7 provides their salary. Table 2 provides similar information for salary distribution, stratified by highest degree full-time academic faculty in biostatistics depart- (master’s or doctorate) and years since obtaining ments, but is based on 12-month salary. Table the highest degree.

Table 1— Years in 1st 3rd 90th 2017–2018 Rank Rank N Quartile Median Quartile Percentile Academic Faculty in Statistics 0-2 29 $112,501 $121,752 $131,956 $180,739 Departments 3-5 42 $118,647 $135,908 $166,100 $203,165 by Rank and Years in Rank, Based on 6-9 26 $121,701 $136,618 $192,500 $252,450 Professor 9-Month Salary 10-16 51 $127,800 $154,700 $181,505 $236,346 17+ 86 $140,403 $163,191 $198,326 $263,566 All 234 $123,108 $148,368 $186,739 $241,346 0-1 28 $94,734 $106,884 $118,950 $140,000 2-3 36 $91,862 $103,044 $121,016 $142,802 Associate 4-6 42 $93,959 $101,805 $105,000 $126,466 Professor 7+ 39 $85,125 $97,495 $110,241 $126,902 All 145 $90,992 $102,142 $111,529 $140,000 0-1 55 $79,950 $90,247 $98,000 $101,300 2-3 61 $77,450 $90,366 $100,000 $109,250 Assistant 4-5 49 $84,050 $93,845 $97,421 $104,313 Professor 6+ 10 $86,779 $95,977 $100,859 $118,103 All 175 $81,947 $92,004 $97,992 $105,500 Instructor All 75 $53,938 $63,160 $75,702 $94,216 All Ranks All 629 $87,125 $102,687 $137,700 $181,505

10 amstat news may 2018 Years in 1st 3rd 90th Table 2— Rank Rank N Quartile Median Quartile Percentile 2017–2018 Academic Faculty in Biostatistics 0-2 32 $163,165 $184,135 $197,410 $240,000 Departments 3-5 47 $173,002 $185,861 $213,790 $230,000 by Rank and Years in Rank, Based on 6-9 28 $177,155 $185,000 $206,970 $253,900 12-Month Salary Professor 10-16 51 $194,133 $208,633 $267,604 $347,879 17+ 52 $197,038 $233,373 $272,908 $316,872 All 210 $177,576 $198,435 $233,513 $279,545 0-1 26 $120,450 $141,299 $150,000 $155,880 2-3 36 $132,443 $139,571 $153,216 $170,424 Associate 4-6 48 $125,410 $144,125 $153,542 $167,198 Professor 7+ 46 $132,154 $146,257 $163,276 $181,496 All 156 $129,016 $143,091 $153,542 $167,199 0-1 46 $105,000 $110,000 $116,000 $129,000 2-3 44 $106,000 $109,252 $118,000 $131,028 Assistant 4-5 32 $107,875 $113,570 $123,076 $131,028 Professor 6+ 31 $102,090 $114,348 $127,749 $133,587 All 153 $105,315 $110,000 $121,141 $131,028 Instructor All 18 $72,100 $81,765 $96,968 $98,838 All Ranks All 537 $115,586 $146,389 $187,140 $233,233

Table 3— 1st 3rd 90th 2017–2018 Rank N Quartile Median Quartile Percentile Academic Faculty Professor 45 $97,230 $111,531 $131,700 $156,028 in Mathematical Sciences Associate 39 $78,742 $87,105 $96,073 $103,100 Professor Departments by Rank, Based on Assistant 29 $69,923 $78,460 $92,175 $108,200 9-Month Salary Professor Instructor 10 $51,862 $57,132 $65,541 $71,479 All Ranks 123 $76,752 $89,854 $107,810 $131,700

may 2018 amstat news 11 Table 4— 2017–2018 Academic Years 1st 3rd 90th Faculty in Statistics Rank in Rank Gender N Quartile Median Quartile Percentile Departments by Rank, Years Female 29 $112,500 $123,348 $145,294 $203,165 0-6 in Rank, and Gender, Male 54 $117,905 $132,154 $164,360 $213,110 Based on 9-Month Female 15 $134,720 $155,508 $218,000 $252,450 Salary Professor 7+ Male 136 $133,611 $159,497 $191,000 $253,588 Female 44 $114,651 $130,432 $185,688 $220,000 All Male 190 $125,987 $152,824 $186,739 $242,167 Female 15 $89,500 $101,247 $112,695 $120,000 0-2 Male 34 $90,750 $106,884 $123,586 $140,000 Associate Female 35 $90,992 $98,362 $104,550 $126,466 3+ Professor Male 61 $91,118 $102,904 $108,977 $142,802 Female 50 $90,992 $99,855 $106,746 $120,850 All Male 95 $90,750 $103,363 $114,365 $142,802 Female 33 $72,000 $85,000 $95,000 $110,000 0-2 Male 57 $80,800 $90,366 $97,000 $100,511 Assistant Female 28 $84,219 $93,015 $96,386 $109,250 3+ Professor Male 57 $84,500 $95,004 $100,363 $115,099 Female 61 $77,358 $88,482 $95,582 $109,250 All Male 114 $82,617 $92,847 $98,756 $104,600 Female 45 $52,000 $60,900 $73,044 $95,921

Instructor All Male 29 $57,823 $66,684 $75,702 $90,045 Transgender 1 $94,216 $94,216 $94,216 $94,216

Table 6— 1st 3rd 90th 2017–2018 Rank Gender N Quartile Median Quartile Percentile Academic Faculty Female 9 $78,713 $97,230 $105,000 $111,019 in Mathematical Professor Sciences Departments Male 36 $101,284 $115,556 $141,554 $165,600 by Rank and Female 14 $71,599 $85,207 $94,932 $104,114 Gender, Based on Associate Professor 9-Month Salary Male 25 $80,000 $89,412 $96,605 $102,995 Assistant Female 10 $70,000 $79,230 $89,000 $105,384 Professor Male 19 $69,923 $77,357 $96,500 $108,200 Female 7 $56,473 $63,256 $67,851 $75,106 Instructor Male 3 $50,000 $51,000 $51,862 $51,862

12 amstat news may 2018 Table 5— Years in 1st 3rd 90th 2017–2018 Rank Rank Gender N Quartile Median Quartile Percentile Academic Faculty in Biostatistics Female 31 $165,000 $188,533 $203,679 $230,000 0-6 Departments Male 53 $170,000 $184,370 $213,417 $240,000 by Rank, Years Female 33 $180,000 $196,368 $230,205 $254,475 in Rank, and Professor 7+ Gender, Based on Male 93 $187,483 $211,737 $269,940 $325,333 12-Month Salary Female 64 $175,375 $189,313 $222,853 $240,000 All Male 146 $178,110 $201,751 $244,333 $294,023 Female 20 $123,522 $133,500 $146,318 $149,700 0-2 Male 26 $137,572 $144,769 $153,972 $163,000 Associate Female 48 $125,771 $142,209 $153,542 $166,536 3+ Professor Male 62 $132,885 $145,219 $158,453 $170,755 Female 68 $125,410 $140,369 $151,842 $165,631 All Male 88 $133,402 $145,123 $155,954 $170,195 Female 26 $105,060 $108,884 $116,000 $129,000 0-2 Male 46 $105,000 $110,000 $118,450 $129,000 Assistant Female 38 $104,314 $114,174 $125,492 $131,485 3+ Professor Male 43 $106,500 $110,331 $127,749 $133,587 Female 64 $105,030 $111,562 $120,594 $130,810 All Male 89 $105,500 $110,000 $122,000 $131,028 Female 12 $73,925 $81,765 $96,855 $98,838 Instructor All Male 6 $63,000 $86,113 $96,968 $97,706

Years Table 7— Since 2017–2018 Highest Highest 1st 3rd 90th Academic Degree Degree N Quartile Median Quartile Percentile Nonfaculty Statisticians* 0-2 24 $61,410 $62,915 $67,229 $80,609 by Highest 3-5 20 $60,704 $65,713 $72,250 $82,553 Degree, Based on 6-9 17 $69,779 $75,346 $76,853 $79,546 12-Month Salary Master’s 10-15 29 $72,576 $81,588 $86,940 $97,920 *Includes 133 from 16+ 34 $83,121 $91,616 $113,689 $126,085 biostatistics, 14 All 124 $65,063 $75,346 $86,940 $97,920 from statistics, and 1 from mathematical Doctorate All 24 $70,963 $83,266 $91,997 $101,289 sciences departments.

may 2018 amstat news 13 Table 8— 2017–2018 Tenured or Tenure Track Academic Faculty Years in 1st 3rd 90th in Statistics Rank N Median Departments Rank Quartile Quartile Percentile by Tenure Status, 0-3 39 $115,500 $126,466 $170,000 $205,553 Rank, and Years 4-7 40 $119,453 $133,596 $173,075 $229,428 in Rank, Based on 8-14 46 $124,415 $152,470 $179,288 $236,346 9-Month Salary Professor 15-20 38 $142,531 $167,393 $200,000 $241,346 21+ 60 $139,431 $161,865 $200,413 $267,125 All 223 $124,206 $148,698 $188,675 $242,987 0-2 43 $93,396 $106,000 $121,700 $135,323 Associate 3-5 49 $99,478 $103,932 $108,977 $143,430 Professor 6+ 45 $87,900 $97,206 $106,700 $122,532 All 137 $92,203 $102,153 $112,695 $140,000 0-2 62 $87,125 $92,886 $100,000 $109,250 Assistant 3+ 73 $89,375 $95,553 $100,363 $111,650 Professor All 135 $88,000 $94,850 $100,000 $110,700 All Ranks All 495 $95,723 $111,803 $146,697 $192,708

Non-Tenure Track (All Years)

1st 3rd 90th Rank N Median Quartile Quartile Percentile Professor 11 $90,545 $112,500 $163,000 $164,360 Associate 8 $72,204 $79,759 $96,820 $120,000 Professor Assistant 40 $52,000 $72,098 $82,566 $85,723 Professor Instructor 75 $53,938 $63,160 $75,702 $94,216 All Ranks 134 $54,000 $70,000 $84,050 $97,393

Table 9— 2017–2018 Tenured or Tenure Track Academic Faculty Years in 1st 3rd 90th in Biostatistics Rank Rank N Quartile Median Quartile Percentile Departments 0-3 29 $174,173 $185,861 $198,038 $240,000 by Tenure Status, Rank, and Years 4-7 32 $177,497 $200,457 $219,107 $253,900 in Rank, Based on Professor 8-14 31 $198,289 $211,473 $269,940 $350,000 12-Month Salary 15+ 55 $198,492 $233,513 $279,912 $330,289 All 147 $183,900 $208,633 $250,000 $296,000 0-2 24 $133,427 $144,650 $153,000 $155,880 Associate 3+ 57 $128,750 $145,008 $157,166 $170,755 Professor All 81 $129,281 $145,000 $154,018 $169,700 0-2 42 $106,080 $110,000 $120,000 $129,000 Assistant 3+ 35 $106,500 $113,988 $127,600 $132,372 Professor All 77 $106,500 $110,000 $120,000 $130,810 All Ranks All 305 $123,500 $158,453 $204,516 $265,867

14 amstat news may 2018 Table 9— Non-Tenure Track 2017–2018 (continued) Years in 1st 3rd 90th Rank Rank N Quartile Median Quartile Percentile 0-5 25 $157,751 $179,867 $196,732 $221,682 Professor 6+ 38 $173,940 $183,964 $212,736 $231,750 All 63 $165,000 $180,000 $212,736 $228,786 0-2 22 $120,450 $136,860 $147,636 $153,264 Associate 3+ 53 $132,154 $142,776 $154,325 $166,238 Professor All 75 $128,354 $140,000 $153,264 $165,631 0-2 30 $101,000 $108,691 $115,586 $127,850 Assistant 3+ 46 $103,779 $112,949 $125,529 $131,506 Professor All 76 $101,614 $110,261 $121,331 $131,506 Instructor All 18 $72,100 $81,765 $96,968 $98,838 All Ranks All 232 $110,261 $132,520 $164,751 $194,690

Table 10— Tenured or Tenure Track 2017–2018 Academic Faculty 1st 3rd 90th Rank N Median in Mathematical Quartile Quartile Percentile Sciences Professor 44 $97,928 $111,719 $133,152 $156,028 Departments by Tenure Status Associate 37 $80,000 $89,412 $96,073 $103,100 and Rank, Based Professor on 9-Month Salary Assistant 28 $69,962 $78,461 $93,288 $108,200 Professor All Ranks 109 $78,713 $93,012 $110,200 $139,508

Non-Tenure Track

1st 3rd 90th Rank N Median Quartile Quartile Percentile Professor 1 $67,214 $67,214 $67,214 $67,214 Associate 2 $78,662 $78,702 $78,742 $78,742 Professor Assistant 1 $37,969 $37,969 $37,969 $37,969 Professor Instructor/ 10 $51,862 $57,132 $65,541 $71,479 Lecturer All Ranks 14 $51,862 $60,524 $67,851 $78,662

may 2018 amstat news 15 MASTER’S IN BIOSTATISTICS Journal of Privacy and 1 YEAR OPTION! Confidentiality Moves to Cornell 4 TRACKS: Editorial Board Accepting Papers from Multiple Disciplines Biostatistics he editorial office of the Journal of Privacy and Confidentiality—a multidisciplinary journal focused on the interface of social, computer, and statistical sci- Genomics and Tences—has migrated to Cornell University, where it is now Bioinformatics managed by Lars Vilhuber at the Labor Dynamics Institute. The journal’s new website can be found at www.journal privacyconfidentiality.org. Health Care Analytics In 2008, Cynthia Dwork of Harvard, Stephen Fienberg of Carnegie Mellon, and Alan Karr of RTI issued a call for papers Social and Behavioral on privacy and confidentiality to be published in a new journal— Science the Journal of Privacy and Confidentiality. The novelty of their call was that it was addressed to multiple, usually separate, constituen- cies. Statisticians, computer scientists, lawyers and social scientists, health researchers, and survey designers have all responded to the call over the years and been published in the journal. In the editorial of the first issue, US Census Bureau Chief Scientist John Abowd, Kobbi Nissim of Georgetown University, and Chris Skinner of the London School of Economics noted that “Gargantuan online services gather petabytes of data on Internship search queries, online purchases, email exchanges, [...] many data users from all of the fields listed above perform analyses that are conditioned on the privacy and confidentiality protec- #2 US Hospital tions imposed on their work without all the means to assess Affiliated with School the consequences of those measures on the inferences they have made.” Those concerns continue to resonate today. For nearly seven years, Fienberg was the editor-in-chief of MONTHLY WEBINARS the journal. With his passing in 2016, the journal needed a new home. Vilhuber has assumed the role of managing edi- ON PROGRAM tor and migrated the journal infrastructure to a new system http://epbiwww.case.edu/ (Open Journal System). Dwork, Karr, Nissim, and Abowd continue to serve on the editorial board. The Edmund Ezra ms-biostatistics Day Chair at Cornell University contributes funding to the journal’s operating budget. The journal is open access, and there is no submission fee. Academics and practitioners from all domains are invited to MORE INFO? submit their papers at www.journalprivacyconfidentiality.org/ index.php/jpc/about/submissions. n [email protected]

16 amstat news may 2018 statistician's view

STATISTICIAN’S VIEW Who Is the American Statistician? Or, Is It Data Scientist? Table 1—Top 10 Skills Listed by Data ohn] Tukey started the occurrence after correcting the Scientists on LinkedIn statistics and data analy- frequencies using TFIDF. In text [Jsis reformation in his retrieval, TFIDF is short for term Most Popular Data Science Skills [Annals of Mathematical Statistics] frequency–inverse document fre- Data Mining publication, titled “The Future quency. It is a numerical statistic Machine Learning of Data Analysis.” More recently, that reflects how important a R David Donoho summarized the word is to a document. 50-year discussion of science and Jumah then created the top Python statistics, and the story of how 10 frequency list in Table 1 and Data Analysis data science was enabled through explored the relationships among Statistics the marriage of technology in the these skills by representing and SQL form of the young discipline of visualizing them as a network, Java computer science and the mature shown in Figure 1. discipline of statistics was told by Matlab Gil Press in his Forbes piece, titled Algorithms “A Very Short History of Data ABOUT THE AUTHOR Science.” The name “data science” Michael Latta holds is now the discipline charged with a master’s degree utilizing Big Data. The role of sta- and PhD in industrial tistics in data science is also an and organizational ongoing debate. Making sense of psychology and statistics from Iowa who is a Data Scientist and who is State University. a Statistician has been debated by He is a professor Scientists, Statisticians, Librarians, in the department and Computer Scientists recently. of marketing and However, after much debate, the hospitality, resort, and tourism in the Wall definitions of Data Scientist, College of Business Statistician, Business Analyst, Administration at Master Data Manager, and Data Coastal Carolina Engineer—among others—are University. On the still in flux. business consulting side, he is the Importance of Data executive director of YTMBA Research and Science to Job Growth Consulting, a firm The economic importance of the specializing in new emergence of data scientist as a product development job title is illustrated in LinkedIn’s in international markets 2017 US Emerging Jobs Report at and predictive analytics. https://bit.ly/2IO3non. Of the top Figure 1: Network of data scientist skills 20 emerging jobs, Data Scientist is second on the list. Three themes common to the In February 2015, Mark van profiles are the following: der Laan wrote a “Dear Amstat What Skills Do Data • Approach data with a math- News” letter taking the position Scientists Say They Have? ematical mind set that Statistics is a Science, not an In an initial exploration of Data • Use a common language to art, and the way to survive is to real- Science as a job title, Ferris Jumah access, explore, and model ize that truth is at the heart of Data looked at what skills people with data Science (https://bit.ly/2GU9pDy). the title “Data Scientist” have list- • Develop strong computer In that position statement, van der ed on their LinkedIn profiles and science and software engi- Laan took exception to George aggregated the top 10 skills by neering backgrounds Box’s well-known comment, “[A]ll may 2018 amstat news 17 statistician's view

models are wrong, but some are Two responses to van der true? No. Is either useful? That is useful.” What Box actually wrote Laan’s letter also appeared as a our current problem. Should we in the first iteration of this idea “Dear Amstat News” letter, one look to improve it? Yes. of scientific correctness was the from Michael Lavine and one following: from Christopher Tong (https:// The arguments about bit.ly/2IKfEu8). These letters Statistics and Science may never Since all models are wrong[,] were rebutted in a third letter end, but we already have jobs and the scientist cannot obtain by van der Laan. The real value professionals who define them- a “correct” one by excessive of these three letters appeared in selves as Data Scientists, which elaboration. On the contrary[,] three comments that were later leads to a new question. following William of posted as part of a discussion. Occam[,] he should seek an One of these comments from Who Do Statisticians Say economical description of Richard Browne describes a real- They Are? natural phenomena. Just as life legal situation, as follows: One may legitimately ask, “Who the ability to devise simple do Data Scientists say they are?” At but evocative models is the One example from my the 2017 Conference on Statistical signature of the great scientist[,] experience comes to mind Practice, this author presented a so overelaboration[,] and that points out the need for poster that was heavily discussed overparameterization is often clarity, instead of perfection, in and commented upon there. In the mark of mediocrity.” modeling. In an EEO litigation, fact, it generated more traffic and the expert witness for those discussion than most other posters What Box was really talking claiming racial discrimination in at the conference. about in this classic article was the hiring (the plaintiffs) used simple That poster had the following ideal balance between theory and regression and two-dimensional purpose and goals. In August of practice, where the ‘Advancement graphs. The defendant’s expert 2015, the ASA published a state- of Learning’ involves ‘An Iteration devised an exquisite regression ment on the Role of Statistics in Between Theory and Practice’ model with over 50 parameters. Data Science. The purpose of followed by ‘A Feedback Loop,’ In rendering his final judgement, that statement appears in its final which motivates true scientific the judge said (in simple words), sentence: “The ASA aims to facili- discovery. However, the ideal bal- “You, I understand (the plaintiff’s tate collaboration between statisti- ance was typically not in play and expert). You, I don’t understand cians and other data scientists and the real process showed flaws of (the defendant’s expert). I find thus enable them to achieve more imbalance. He named those flaws for the plaintiffs.” In other words, than they could on their own.” as follows: a result that is truthful and useful Ron Wasserstein, executive to the client is often preferable director of ASA, discussed the The maladies which result may to one that would charm our statement in his blog and out- be called Cookbookery and major professor, but leave the lined some of the ASA’s efforts Mathematistry. The symptoms client confused. to “facilitate further collaboration of the former are a tendency to between statisticians and other force all problems into the molds Georgette Asherman made a data scientists.” of one or two routine techniques, second comment: The poster was aimed at insufficient thought being given offering the audience an analy- to the real objectives of the Statistics shouldn’t be an sis of what Statisticians, Data investigation or to the relevance art, but it is definitely a craft. Scientists, Data Engineers, of the assumptions implied by Most of us spend our time and those practicing Predictive the imposed methods. reducing complexity to simple Analytics say about their jobs, techniques for people like relationships, and their roles. the judge above who value Mathematistry is characterized A further analysis of what ASA simplicity, even when it by development of theory for members say about these issues is might not be true. Yesterday, theory’s sake, which since it summarized here. I spent an hour with a clinical seldom touches down with researcher creating a graphic Data Collection practice, has a tendency to that would show the difference redefine the problem rather than Data were collected from the between a 2 x 2 contingency solve it. Typically, there has once ASA Connect Digest Online table and a ranking technique been a statistical problem with in a thread on the definition of for blocked data. Our simple scientific relevance but this has Data Scientist posted from July description was described as long since been lost sight of. 11, 2016, at 06:02 to July 28, “too wordy.” Is either model 2016, at 09:04. There were 18 18 amstat news may 2018 statistician's view participants in the discussion, generating 35 posts. Two participants generated seven posts, five generated two posts, and 11 generated only a single post. After collecting the data from the online blog, the analysis involved the usage of terms aris- ing from recent controversies such as what are statistics, data science, predictive analytics, and data engineering being discussed at the time in the ASA Connect Digest Online. This online activ- Figure 2: Visualization of ASA blog posts ity appeared in the ASA Blog Posts with the title Data Science Table 2—Signature Identity Title and Statistics. The analysis was Data Science Network include directed at learning about what the following: Student, M.S. in Applied Statistics the terms Data Science, Statistics, Director, Global Knowledge Services Analytics, and Data Engineering • Data Engagement Director Business Analytics mean to facilitate 1) communi- • Big Data cation with clients, collabora- • Data Mining Statistician, Chemist tors, and customers; 2) having • Statistics Consultant and Adjunct Associate Professor of a positive impact on clients and Biostatistics their business operations; and 3) Principal Consultant Discussion having a positive impact on the Senior Data Scientist organizations where those clients, Tukey coined the term “bit,” Principal Staff Scientist collaborators, and customers live which Claude Shannon used and work. The next step involved in his paper, “A Mathematical removing all capitalization and Theory of Communications.” the answer may surprise many punctuation (with the excep- In Tukey’s work, done for the by being “important but not tion of possessive apostrophes). Army Research Office and titled vital,” although[,] in others[,] The final step was to create a “The Future of Data Analysis,” word cloud using the text and a Tukey foreshadowed the emer- there is no doubt but what the program named Wordle (www. gence of Data Science when he computer has been “vital.” wordle.net/create). wrote the following: Later, Tukey published his Data Visualization For a long time[,] I thought I widely used text Exploratory The visualization of the text data was a statistician, interested in Data Analysis, where he wrote is presented in Figure 2. Word inferences from the particular the following: clouds give greater prominence to the general. But as I have to the visualization of words that watched mathematical [M]ore emphasis needs to appear more frequently in the statistics evolve, I have had be placed on using data to source text, where prominence is cause to wonder and doubt. suggest hypotheses to test and defined by size and location. … I have come to feel that that Exploratory Data Analysis The participants in the blog my central interest is in data and Confirmatory Data Analysis typically signed off with only analysis. … Data analysis, “can—and should—proceed their names. However, some also and the parts of statistics side by side.” named their identity with a title, which adhere to it, must … as indicated in Table 2. take on the characteristics of It seems Data Scientists and science[,] rather than those of Statisticians can coexist and work It’s All About the Data mathematics … data analysis to advance methods of under- Primarily, it’s all about the data is intrinsically an empirical standing data and perhaps prac- in both the ASA Connect Digest science. … How vital and how tice science together. n postings and the Data Science important … is the rise of the Network. Similarities between stored-program electronic the ASA Connect Digest and the computer? In many instances[,]

may 2018 amstat news 19 columns

Bureau of Labor Statistics

STATS4GOOD Data Resources for Data for Good Researchers

With a PhD in ata for Good research, of course, starts collected through the chief (decennial) census every statistical astrophysics, with data. Many projects begin with an 10 years, which collects a large amount of data of David Corliss existing relationship between the research- different kinds and tries to reach every person in the works in analytics Der and an organization that has data but needs sta- country. The American Community Survey (ACS) architecture at Ford Motor Company tistical support to obtain the greatest good. As one collects more detailed information than the decen- while continuing becomes more familiar with the data and needs of nial census, with a basic survey sample taken every astrophysics research the organization or cause, a natural progression in year and a detailed survey taken every five years. The on the side. He is the the analytical process is to consider, evaluate, and wealth of data in the ACS makes it an important founder of Peace- Work, a volunteer integrate data from other sources. While the source for Data for Good projects. cooperative of researcher often begins with a paucity of useful data The American Fact Finder page (census.gov/acs/ statisticians and data in-house, this can turn to an embarrassment of www/data/data-tables-and-tools/american-factfinder) scientists providing riches when other data sources are considered. provides easy access to the ACS data sources. Both analytic support for Many data sources are compiled by government the decennial census and ACS are produced in a charitable groups and agencies. While the federal government maintains a series of tables representing a particular area, such applying statistical methods to issue- general-purpose search engine at www.usa.gov, the as demographics, economic data, and housing. The driven advocacy in data-focused website Data.gov is a more valuable ACS also includes data on specific industries. Data poverty, education, resource, with a search engine for publicly available can be downloaded free of charge, including whole and social justice. government data. More than 200,000 data sets can tables, although some files may be broken into sepa- be searched. rate files by geographic characteristics such as “state.” One of the most important data sources for Data Census data is geocoded using FIPS codes for state, for Good researchers is the US Census Bureau. The county, and census track, so gaining a familiarity with main data page at census.gov/data.html links to the these codes will facilitate use of the data. The FIPS main Census Bureau products. Census data can be codes can be separate fields, combined into a single

20 amstat news may 2018 columns

Resources string as GEOID, or both. The Census Bureau JSM Presentations strives to support many kinds of data consumers Going to JSM? Visit ww2.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2018 and with different needs. This leads to some redundancy search for Data for Good to find 95 listings of presentations in the tables, so it’s best to parse through it. and other activities. On August 2 at 10:30 a.m., Jake Porway Most people may not think of the Census Bureau of DataKind will lead an invited session on data science for often, or they may only think of it in conjunction social good, with instructions and examples for setting up with its foremost commercial uses. As a person your own project. active in Data for Good projects, my colleagues and I have come to understand the Census Bureau data as a cornerstone of this important work. Learning Student Instruction Packet to find, access, and manage government resources— Peace-Work has developed a student instruction packet on especially Census Bureau data—is a valuable skill gun violence research. Written for people in the first two well worth cultivating, sharing with colleagues, and years of a college or high-school AP Stats class, it describes teaching to students. a process for performing a local gun violence study. This State and local government agency sites also pro- is to support a number of local studies at the metro area, vide valuable data sources for local data. This is par- county, or state level investigating various dimensions ticularly true for crime data, as most localities have of gun violence. Once a number of these studies are good data, not all of which is shared with the federal government. Data for good studies requiring crime completed and published, meta-analysis can leverage data will do well to look at state and local sources. them to contribute to a national picture of gun violence The same is true for environmental data and school- in the United States. The gun violence student instruction and district-level education data and outcomes. packet is available for free download at peace-work.org/ Data resources also exist for specific industries and peace-work-studies. areas of social concern. I am always surprised at what I can find, and data sources continue to grow Data Sources in number and improve in quality. Data for Good, of course, is more than the data. • Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) for data on The software is available on an open source or free labor, employment, and unemployment and the basis to support your work. Many people will be Consumer Price Index and inflation familiar with the open source analytic platform R. The base software and many packages can be accessed • Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov) for through the Comprehensive R Archive Network at macroeconomic data, including GDP and a wealth of cran.r-project.org. Because R is open source, it has industry-specific data been incorporated into many commercially available • National Weather Service (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ analytic packages. These offer the advantage of pro- data-access) for weather data, including archival data viding support through the maker of the commercial package and being integrated into other tools with • Bureau of Justice Statistics (www.bjs.gov) for crime which you may be familiar. However, proprietary data, though I have found these data difficult to work platforms embedding R will only be able to support a with at times limited number of packages; rarely used packages or those with specific uses may not be covered. RStudio (rstudio.com) is a popular IDE, but is not open source for commercial purposes. Getting started in Data for Good research can SAS offers University Edition (sas.com/en_us/ seem confusing at first, but good resources are avail- software/university-edition.html), a free platform for able to help. Even experienced researchers can ben- professors, students, and non-commercial research- efit from the variety of free and government data ers. Some Data for Good researchers (includ- sources. Because data is a type property, public data ing me) prefer SAS University Edition for its should be considered public property. Data for SAS environment and an end-to-end solution for Good uses the public data resources we own for the data, analytics, and visualizations. greater good of all. n

may 2018 amstat news 21 columns

STATtr@k Observations About Taking Control of Your Career Path

s a graduate research assis- Some of the new responsi- sure to discuss your goals as they tant in college, I knew bilities I’ve taken on have been may be different from the goals exactly where I wanted frightening, some I was sure they think you should have. myA career to go. It was a vertical I was going to fail at, and a straight line to becoming a senior few just seemed like fun. The Know your company/ biostatistician. More than 10 years one thing that was consistent industry promotion into my career, I’ve now become a throughout all my decisions was requirements. senior biostatistician, but I’ve also I thought I had control over done so much more than I ever the choices I made to shape the It’s a lot easier to earn your next Heather Kopetskie is a senior biostatistician could have imagined when I was a career I wanted, and the career I promotion when you know what at Rho with experience graduate research assistant. desired changed over time—and you need to accomplish to be in statistical planning, still changes now. In fact, I don’t recognized. If you don’t know analysis, and reporting know where I want to be 10 years what your company require- for clinical trials. She down the road; currently, I’m just ments are for promotion, talk also serves as Rho’s biostatistics operational enjoying the journey and making to your mentor or someone in service leader, an decisions as they come—and I’m human resources. If they can’t internal expert sharing perfectly comfortable with that give you a clear answer, look at a biostatistical industry plan, or lack thereof. job description of the next posi- trends, best practices, Below are seven observations tion you want. If you don’t plan processes, and training. from successful statistical col- on staying with your company, She holds an MS in biostatistics from The leagues and me to think about make sure to look at several job University of North as you maneuver the career descriptions for different com- Carolina at Chapel Hill. growth ladder. panies as the skill sets may vary depending on each organization’s Find a great mentor. expectations and values. Take these to your mentor or boss I want to stress the word “great” and ask for new opportunities to here because a good mentor build the skill set required for the isn’t enough. If you can’t find a promotion you seek. single great mentor, then recruit more than one person. There is no rule saying this has to be a Be empowered. single person, or even someone What is empowerment? Broadly, within your company (don’t for- it’s speaking up to ask for what get alumni resources and confer- you want, speaking up when you ence connections). What makes disagree, and taking initiative to a great mentor? Someone who is do something that needs to be going to fight for the opportuni- done. I like to think of it as being ties you want, provide guidance confident taking action. Why is and advice, help develop your this important? If you say yes to leadership skills, and offer you everything, you will be overcom- new opportunities. When you mitted and won’t be able to excel meet with your mentor, make at anything. You need to shine

22 amstat news may 2018 columns

you and is a valuable knowl- Know your strengths. edge area for your company and Know what your strengths are industry. The goal is to become and what your company values. recognized as a subject matter Then figure out how to lever- expert in this field so your col- age your strengths to maximize leagues start coming to you with their effect on your organization. their questions. This makes you Our company uses the book valuable within your company, as StrengthsFinder 2.0 by Tom Rath well as marketable to others. (www.tomrath.org/book/strengths- to get that promotion. When finder) to help employees iden- Celebrate your victories. you are asked to do something, tify strengths. This was a great don’t respond immediately. Take resource for me, as it highlighted It’s a long career, and it’s too easy a moment and think about how what my strengths were, what to get stuck in the day-to-day it could influence your career. my weaknesses were, and what grind and get worn out. Take a The work may not be exciting, my colleagues’ strengths were so moment to celebrate your accom- but it could help accelerate your I could best interact with them. plishments, even the really small career. If a new responsibility is I will offer one example deliverables/victories. Celebrating going to spread you too thin, you here, as I think leveraging your breaks it all up and lets you feel may want to say no. Saying no is strengths is difficult to under- rejuvenated for the next big task difficult at first, but it gets easier stand. My company values inno- you tackle. Also remember to pass over time. And if you explain vation. This is not one of my on accomplishments to your boss why your answer is no, people strengths. I like to develop close as they may be too busy to notice, will usually respect your deci- relationships, achieve goals, create but they likely have influence on sion. If you are told—instead of routine and structure, and deter- how your career progresses within asked—to work on a project, you mine how to arrange tasks for the company. can still have a discussion about productivity. There is nothing That concludes my seven why you think the work may not in there about innovation. Yet, if observations for taking con- be a good fit. You may still need you ask my colleagues, they will trol of your career. I wish I had to perform the task, but your probably say I’m innovative. This more room to share my expe- voice will have been heard. is because I’ve figured out who in riences, but it’s better to hear my company is innovative and examples from individuals in Step out of your I’ve collaborated with them. They your own industry. When you comfort zone. come up with the idea and I can meet individuals in your com- run with executing it, because pany, ask them about hard deci- This is one you probably see a that’s where my strengths lie. It sions they had to make regarding lot, but for good reason. If we ends up being a win for both of their career path. Ask them how stay in our bubble of comfort, us. I just had to figure out how they’ve leveraged their strengths we can’t grow. If we don’t grow, to align my strengths with my within the company. You’ll learn we can’t get to the next level in company’s values. more from that personal inter- our career. Don’t be afraid to say action, which could lead to a yes to new opportunities. More Continue learning. relationship with a new mentor. importantly, speak up, volunteer, Good luck, and remember it’s or talk to your mentor when you Learning doesn’t stop when you a long journey, so don’t get dis- want to do new things outside graduate from college. You need couraged. If it’s not always going your comfort zone. If you don’t to keep up with new skills in your how you want, refocus your speak up, no one is going to field to make sure you are still a efforts and try again. n know you want the opportunity. desirable employee in the industry. Find something that interests

may 2018 amstat news 23 columns

MASTER’S NOTEBOOK Early-Career Statistician Offers Language, Tools for Establishing Influence

hile statisticians are be consulted at the beginning of enthusiasm without minimizing formally taught meth- a project, or on an ad hoc basis your contributions. odological skills, tact- as the project progresses? Do you In addition to wanting to Wful project management and anticipate writing part of the seem so skilled at my job that establishing credibility early on manuscript, or to only review the everything was easy, another are less often taught, but equally methods and results sections? Do challenge I encountered was fig- important to successfully con- you want to be involved in all uring out the right time to send tributing to a team. In some set- project meetings, or only meet- results to an investigator. Naively, tings, such as the medical field ings that are statistics oriented? my initial approach was to drop where traditional hierarchies These are examples of details what I was doing if it was a quick drive authority, it may be partic- the collaborator should be request and to always send results ularly difficult as an early-career informed of from the beginning the moment they were produced. statistician to establish credibility to set the stage for a successful Of course, this sense of urgency and manage projects with confi- collaborative relationship. would be necessary in the pres- dence. To build expertise and After you have explained your ence of a deadline, but it can lead command respect from the get- role, it is important to main- to setting up unreasonable expec- go, or to re-work the current tain respect for your expertise tations in the absence of one. Jessica Lavery is a biostatistician in the dynamic on a project team, sev- throughout the project. Often, Like saying something is easy, Health Outcomes eral subtle tactics may be used. intending to be seen as having constantly having a short turn- Research Group at At the Women in Statistics mastered my role, I’m inclined to around time implies your job is Memorial Sloan Kettering and Data Science (WSDS) say, “Sure, no problem, this task quick and effortless and you are Cancer Center in conference in October 2017, I will be easy.” This was something constantly on call, ready and New York. She has an undergraduate degree shared tools picked up during my I struggled with in my first job waiting to immediately handle all in statistics from Loyola first few years as a statistician that out of graduate school. Of course requests. Even investigators with University Maryland have proven useful in being taken I can tackle any task you present me good intentions will learn they and a master’s degree seriously by senior collaborators. with; I just got my master’s degree! can wait until the last minute to in biostatistics from I share them again with you here. Not only does this approach ask for something, since it takes The University of North minimize the amount of effort such a short time to produce. Carolina at Chapel Hill. Managing Expectations required and results produced, Instead of immediately reply- At the beginning of collabora- resulting in unrealistic expecta- ing with results, acknowledging tion, it is important to estab- tions in terms of how long it you have received the request lish that the scope of a statisti- takes to complete a task, it also and intentionally delaying send- cian’s responsibilities often spans conveys the idea that anyone can ing the results for a short time beyond producing analyses. do my job, devaluing my role on helps manage your collaborators’ The level of involvement by the team. Additionally, if a task expectations and provides buffer the statistician certainly var- comes easily, often that’s only time for you to digest the results ies across institutions and may because I went through six years before disseminating. vary across projects and inves- of school to learn how to master tigators, as well. For this reason, that skill. Collaborating and it is most beneficial to establish Instead of saying something Communicating what your skills are and how you is easy, it is more beneficial to In the day to day, back and expect to use them at the begin- say something along the lines of, forth of collaborating, several ning of each project and on an “This project will involve x, y and subtle language modifications ongoing basis so your collabora- z, and I’m looking forward to get- can be helpful in enforcing the tor is aware of how you expect ting started on it.” This conveys idea that you are an integral part to be involved. Do you expect to competence, confidence, and of the team.

24 amstat news may 2018 columns

As statisticians, we are often remove unnecessary instances of conflicted about how to refer to taught to speak the same language “just” (which is most of them) them. Dr. Jones? Ms. or Mrs. as our collaborators, and this and re-read, noting how much Jones? Jane? The trick that comes cannot be emphasized enough. clearer the email sounds. in handy here is to start formally Giving an example or explaining Upspeak is something I only and then mirror the way some- an analysis in the same content recently learned about, and I one signs emails. If a collabora- area as the project prevents your could not stop noticing how fre- tor signs off using his or her first clinical collaborator from hav- quently I did it once I did. The name, I take that as an invitation ing to translate from an abstract term upspeak refers to ending to refer to them as such, connect- content area to statistics, and what should be a statement as a ing on a more personal level and from statistics back to their con- question. As a simple example, if further building a collaborative tent area. As an example, work- someone asks when a meeting is relationship. Always defaulting ing in oncology, I would want to and you reply, “The meeting is back to the more formal name avoid explaining a methodology Monday at noon?” Ending this reinforces the idea that you are a based on agriculture plots, even in a question leaves the group subordinate. With that said, if a though this is how I was taught with no more information than collaborator indicates a preference a lot of statistics. My oncologist before you answered. It is espe- for a more formal communica- collaborator is then translating cially important to avoid doing tion, then it is certainly appropri- ideas from agriculture to statis- this when sharing results with ate to respect that preference. tics to oncology, opening a lot of a group, and to instead speak a Last, but certainly not least, opportunity for things to get lost sentence as a declaration, por- it is important to remember in translation. While this may traying more confidence in the that silence is okay. Often, when sound obvious, it is something answer. It is much easier for a I present a result or explain that serves us well to remember. collaborator to be dismissive of a method and a collaborator Using the term “we” instead an idea or response if it is pre- is processing what I just told of “you” ingrains you into the sented as a question. them, I continue nervous-talk- research team. Asking, “What Authorship can be a touchy ing—speaking rapidly and quick- question are we trying to subject, especially when the proj- ly trailing off into gibberish as I answer?” conveys you are equally ect team is large. Additionally, worry something I explained did invested in the research. clinical collaborators are some- not make sense. I often fall back I used to frequently insert times unaware that authorship on prematurely asking, “Did that “just,” as in, “I’m just emailing is important to a statistician’s make sense?”, pre-emptively sug- to …” or “I just wanted to …” career. It is your responsibility gesting I was incoherent. Instead, The intention is to be polite and to establish early on what your it is more constructive to give the Editor’s Note: deferential, but what this does is expectations are regarding any collaborator a few moments to The views and indicate we are in a position of abstracts, as well as the final man- process, and then invite feedback opinions expressed inferiority when we deserve to uscript. Instead of presenting this by having the collaborator reiter- here are Jessica be an equal collaborator. If I am as a question—“Can I be listed as ate their understanding of what Lavery’s and do not emailing to follow up with a col- second author?”—it is more effec- you communicated. necessarily reflect those of Memorial laborator who ignored my last tive to present a statement such Thoroughly explaining your Sloan Kettering. email for a week, inserting “just” as, “Generally, when a statistician role and consistently communi- makes me feel like I am convey- cleans the data, runs the analyses, cating the value of your contribu- ing understanding that they are and writes the methods and results, tions both explicitly and implic- assiduously working and may they are awarded second author.” itly increases your influence on not have had time to respond. This politely establishes a norm the project team. Of course, not As equal members in the profes- and requires justification by all tips will be applicable in all sional field, it is my collaborator’s your collaborator if there is scenarios, but I hope you will responsibility to respond to an going to be a shift. find some helpful. This is an area email, and I should not feel shy Collaborating with medical in which I am constantly learn- about reaching out. I now scan doctors and doctoral-level health ing, and I look forward to hear- all emails after drafting them and services researchers, I often felt ing from others about tactics that have proven useful. n

may 2018 amstat news 25 columns

PASTIMES OF STATISTICIANS What Does Wayne Nelson Like to Do When He Is Not Being a Statistician?

Tell us about what you like to do for fun when you are not being a statistician. When I was 12, my grade school gave me ballroom dance lessons with girls. Now 81, I’m still dancing with them—but, today, it’s Argentine tango, which is a three-minute romance. Seriously, dancing social ballroom at age 60, I discovered Argentine tango, became addicted, and now need a “tango fix” two or three times a week. What drew you to this hobby, and what keeps you interested? Argentine tango has various charms. Few in number, tangueros are friendly and welcoming to all dancers. I’ve been warmly welcomed in dances all over the US and abroad, including Buenos Aires, Cairo, Mexico City, Bordeaux, and embargoed Havana (I went there as a wetback). Used to dancing chest-to-chest (heart to heart) and cheek-to-cheek, tangueros warmly hug friends on greeting. No other dance has such intimate contact—chest, head, feet, calves, and, yes, thighs. The women dance only on the balls of their feet and have gorgeous legs. It is the world’s most difficult social dance, an enticing challenge that requires years to master. I’ve been working on tango for 20 years. Still humbly learning. Tango music is romantic, beautiful, and expres- sive of feelings. Good social dancers express the feeling of the music using suitable “figuras” (dance Wayne Nelson dances with his tango partner, Cheryl Monti, who he calls an patterns) and rhythms; that is, they spontaneous- angel. ly choreograph. Such musicality is rare in social ballroom dancing, which uses a simple repeating rhythm for each dance style. To hear the beauti- Who are you, and what is your statistics ful tango “Invierno” [Winter] and see charming position? professional choreography, view www.youtube.com/ My name is Wayne Nelson. I am a semi-retired private watch?v=nfSWPO7uhpo. statistical consultant and leading expert on reliability The best dancers have outstanding technique that data analysis, recurrent events data analysis, and statis- feels wonderful to partners. Ballroom partners are tical methods for accelerated testing. I also give train- performer wannabes and try to look good. Tangueros ing courses for clients and professional societies. An try to feel good to partners. My partners have ranged employee of General Electric Corporation Research from clumsy sumo wrestlers to butterfly angels who and Development for 24 years, I consulted across the are lighter and follow me better than my shadow. I company. As an adjunct professor at Union College always fall in love with the angels. A tango with an and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, I taught gradu- angel is three minutes in heaven. Such a tango dance is ate courses on the theory and application of statistics. described in Buenos Aires as “one heart with four legs.

26 amstat news may 2018 columns

Now 81 and an advanced dancer, I am flattered (no pun) of musicians improved their skills, when asked to dance by gorgeous young 60-year- instructed by maestros. For four days, 100+ olds I don’t know. At a tango dance in the Catskills, tangueros participated in dance classes and Marilyn—a most attractive and skilled tanguera— danced to a live orchestra of 23 musicians invited me to dance with her in New York City. who raised the hair on the back of my neck. We’ve danced in Central Park, in the pavilion at the end of Pier 45 as the sun sets in New Jersey, in the • There are customs at tango dances. You do UN Building, and in many tango clubs and dance not approach a tanguera and ask her to dance. halls. Tango brought me this much-treasured friend. In ballroom dancing, just asking is custom- ary. To invite a tanguera, you must catch her Some special tango moments for me include: eye (sometimes across the dance floor) and smile and nod. If she smiles back, you go to • Anne, my beloved dance partner and sweet- her and dance. If she ignores you, you’re out heart of 27 years, took me on a tango cruise. of luck. The tangos are played in a tanda, a set It departed from Venice and stopped at vari- of three or four tunes of the same style and ous Greek ports (including Rhodes and the by the same orchestra. On hearing the first ancient Olympics site) and beautiful medieval notes of the music, you can invite a partner Dubrovnik. Our group of 25 tangueros had suited to the music and dance that tanda with classes every morning, an adventure ashore her. Some tandas have other styles of music in a new place each afternoon, and a private such as swing, Latin, polka, paso doble, etc. tango dance at night. Our eight teachers put In Argentina, they do the chacarera folk on a first-rate tango show in the ship’s theater; dance. In Mexico, they dance traditional dan- it attracted 300 passengers just by word of zón, which is like rumba but more compli- mouth. The trip included memorable stays in cated. Most music at dances is by the famous Venice and Florence. orchestras of the Golden Age of Tango—the 30s, 40s, and 50s—and some is by more • As a raw beginner, I went to tango boot camp recent orchestras. We dance to three styles of in Buenos Aires for a week in 1997. In a class Argentine music: of 25 beginners, I was taught a figura by a maestro (master teacher) each afternoon, fol- • Traditional tango with a 2/4 or 4/4 lowed by a practice with five or six attentive (march) tempo teachers who drilled me on technique involving balance and delicate connection with part- • Waltz tango with 3/4 time (a three-beat ner that does not disturb the partner’s balance measure), which is like a Viennese waltz and movement. Each evening, we went to a but with a faster tempo different dance club, struggled on a crowded floor, and also saw a tango show. Still need- • Milonga with a 2/4 or 4/4 (march) tempo, ing boot camp, I repeated it the following which is faster than traditional tango year. Boot camp showed me what technique I needed to learn to dance well with a partner. These dance styles have a common base, and I am still working on improving technique. each has some unique steps and customs. There are other styles of tango. In the US, ballroom dancers • Buenos Aires is the Mecca for tangueros. Self- dance “American tango,” which is much like fox employed and having a good boss, I have spent trot danced to music with a heavy drum beat, for five weeks there in March and April each year example, “Hernando’s Hideaway.” International since 2000. A high point was my Fulbright tango is a studio-invented competition style with Award to teach reliability statistics in Spanish exaggerated stylized movement, such as head snap- to engineers there for three months. Of course, ping, and the men wear tails and the women wear you know why I chose Buenos Aires and what long ball gowns. In addition to the social Argentine I did in my free time. tango, there is professional stage tango, called fan- tasy tango. It is athletic and complicated with high • Recently, for the first time, I attended the speed and lifts. n Stowe Tango Music Festival, where scores

may 2018 amstat news 27 JOIN US IN VANCOUVER ! Highlights of the JSM 2018 Program

Christian Léger, JSM 2018 Program Chair

et in beautiful Vancouver, British Columbia, from July 29 through August 2, JSM 2018 promises to be a fantastic meeting. With your help, the JSM Program Committee (ww2.amstat.org/meetings/ Sjsm/2018/programcommittee.cfm) has prepared a wonderful program with a total of 681 sessions, including four plenary sessions, 178 invited sessions, 167 topic-contributed sessions, 181 contributed sessions, 26 speed sessions, 40 contributed poster sessions, and 76 roundtables for a total of 2,480 individual paper presentations, 509 speed presentations, 437 individual poster presentations, and more than 100 discussants. Although it is too early to tell, the number of submissions indicates JSM 2018 will be one of the largest JSM meetings ever.

28 amstat news may 2018 meetings

THE FOUNDERS AWARD No Longer Top Secret Such a large meeting sometimes discourages potential par- Since its inception nearly 30 years ago, the ASA Founders Award—our association’s top ticipants. There are, after all, award for service—has been presented behind a veil of secrecy. That is, no notice of or to the between 41 and 43 parallel ses- recipients was given and the recipients’ pictures did not appear in the JSM Awards Booklet sions in each non-plenary time until the following year. Members of the Founders Award Committee have concluded this slot from Sunday, July 29, at 2 practice is not particularly helpful and does not provide JSM attendees, family, and friends the p.m. through Thursday, August appropriate opportunity to congratulate new Founders. 2, at 10:30 a.m. The flipside is Therefore, we’d like to announce the 2018 Founders Award recipients: Marie Davidian, that every participant is sure to Alicia Carriquiry, and Dan Kasprzyk. We hope you will join us at the 2018 President’s find exciting sessions in all time Address and Founders & Fellows Recognition Tuesday, July 31, in Vancouver to recognize these slots from Sunday to Thursday! outstanding individuals! More about the 2018 recipients is coming soon. But to take full advantage of what JSM offers, it is important to plan which sessions to attend. Consulting the online program at ww2.amstat.org/meetings/ opportunity to learn about vari- useful in several applications and jsm/2018/onlineprogram is the ous topics during the invited has witnessed an absolute explo- best way to select the sessions of poster session, when 40 elec- sion of interest. interest, since you can construct tronic posters will be presented Then, Sunday, July 29, at your own program and eventu- near the vendors in the EXPO. 4 p.m., Examining What and ally use the mobile application to How We Teach at All Levels: Public Lecture consult it. But to help you plan, I Key Ideas to Ensure the Progress CHILD CARE at JSM will highlight some sessions in the This year, JSM is innovating and Relevance of Statistics will Looking for next few paragraphs. by presenting a public lecture highlight changes in introducto- child care during JSM? to raise the profile of statistical ry-level material and both under- Register through Plenary Sessionsh sciences in the community host- graduate and graduate programs KiddieCorp at Jeff Rosenthal www.jotform.com/ Let me begin with the plenary ing the meeting. in statistics, biostatistics, and data KiddieCorp/jsmkids. sessions. The first one is the ASA of the University of Toronto science at a time when demand President’s Invited Address on will deliver the first JSM pub- for our profession continues to Monday, July 30, at 4 p.m. On lic lecture, Born on Friday the grow and the emergence of data Tuesday, July 31, at 4 p.m., the Thirteenth: The Curious World science has invigorated both Deming Lecture, Improving the of Probabilities. industry and academia. Quality and Value of Statistical Held on Monday night to On Monday, July 30, at 8:30 Information: Fourteen Questions accommodate high-school math a.m., data science leaders from on Management, will be deliv- teachers and the general pub- major technological firms will ered by John L. Eltinge of the US lic—its principal audience—the demystify real-world data science Census Bureau. Tuesday night at public lecture is also open to JSM applications at scale and illustrate 8 p.m., Lisa LaVange will pres- attendees who may be interested. how to become an excellent data ent the ASA President’s Address. scientist, build a high-impact data Finally, the COPSS awards will Introductory Overview science team, design data science be presented on Wednesday, Lectures curriculum, and lead with sta- August 1, at 4 p.m., followed by Introductory overview lectures tistics in Leading Data Science: the Fisher Lecture—The Future: are among the most popular Talent, Strategy, and Impact. Stratified Micro-Randomized sessions at JSM. They are high- Multivariate Data Modeling Trials with Applications in Mobile quality introductions to timely with Copulas on Monday, July Health—given by Susan Murphy and important statistical topics 30, at 10:30 a.m., will focus of Harvard University. of interest to broad JSM attend- on the fundamental principles ees. This year, JSM will host six. of copulas and copula mod- Opening Mixer The first—The Deep Learning els, one of the most powerful Sunday night, as you mingle Revolution, taking place Sunday, and appealing ways to account with colleagues and friends July 29, at 2 p.m.—will explore for dependence in multivariate during the JSM Opening Mixer, this machine learning tool that data, and provide concrete illus- you won’t want to miss the has proven to be extremely trations of its use in finance,

may 2018 amstat news 29 meetings

Rounding It Out insurance, biostatistics, and Annals of Applied Statistics Following are other sessions you environmental sciences. Monday, July 30, 2 p.m. may find interesting: On Tuesday, July 31, at Technometrics Medallion Lecture I: Statistical 8:30 a.m., Reproducibility, Tuesday, July 31, 8:30 a.m. Inference for Complex Extreme Efficient Workflows, and Rich Events, by Anthony Davison Environments will explore the Journal of Agricultural, Biological, (Sunday, July 29, 2 p.m.) need for reproducibility of results and Environmental Statistics from modern data analysis and Tuesday, July 31, 2 p.m. The Good, the Bad, and the how getting the most of rich Ugly: The Future of Statistics Statistics Surveys computing environments can Wednesday, August 1, 8:30 a.m. and the Public (Sunday, help build efficient workflows July 29, 4 p.m.) and organize computations to Statistica Sinica REGISTER Wednesday, August 1, 10:30 a.m. EARLY Theory vs. Practice (Monday, encourage validity, reproducibil- Early registration July 30, 10:30 a.m.) ity, and collaborative sharing. JASA Applications and Case deadline is May Finally, on Wednesday, Addressing Sexual Misconduct Studies 31. Register August 1, at 8:30 a.m., The in the Statistics Community Wednesday, August 1, 2 p.m. online at www. Statistical and Data Revolution (Monday, July 30, 2 p.m.) amstat.org/ in the Social Sciences CHANCE jsmregistration. will high- Statistical Leadership: Insights light new statistical methods for Thursday, August 2, 8:30 a.m. from Experiences of Prominent three areas of social science— Leaders (Tuesday, July 31, demography, social network Late-Breaking Sessions 10:30 a.m.) analysis, and criminology—in Up to two late-breaking sessions may be added to the program for Worldwide Statistics without which the impact of statistics has Monday, July 30, at 2 p.m. and Borders Projects: Statistics, been expanding rapidly, spurred Tuesday, July 31, at 10:30 a.m. Data Visualization, and by a huge expansion in available social science data, new kinds Decision-Making (Wednesday, Speed Sessions August 1, 8:30 a.m.) of social science data, and the establishment of several interdis- One way to diminish the number Noether Award with Jianqing ciplinary centers and institutes in of parallel sessions is to encourage Fan and Anirban Bhattacharya US universities. researchers to present in a speed (Wednesday, August 1, session. Such a presentation is 10:30 a.m.) Memorial Sessions delivered in two parts: a four- Every year, we remember the minute oral advertisement for the Sirken Award with Colm contributions and personalities O’Muircheartaigh, (Wednesday, topic in a session with 19 others of extraordinary statisticians who August 1, 10:30 a.m.) on a similar theme, followed by a died in the recent past through 45-minute electronic poster in a Are We (Academia) Producing memorial sessions. This year, we later session. This year, we have Leaders with Necessary will salute Stephen E. Fienberg increased the number of speed Statistical Skills? (Wednesday, (Sunday, July 29, 2 p.m.), sessions from 18 to 26. I invite August 1, 2 p.m.) Charles Stein (Monday, July 30, you to consider attending at The State of Peer Review and 2 p.m.), Ingram Olkin (Tuesday, least one such session. You may Publication in Statistics and the July 31, 2 p.m.), Alastair Scott like them and consider submit- Sciences (Wednesday, (Thursday, August 2, 8:30 a.m.), ting your research to a speed Joseph Hilbe August 1, 2 p.m.) and (Thursday, session next year. August 2, 10:30 a.m.). The theme of the meeting is Medallion Lecture II: Statistical #LeadWithStatistics and, as you Analysis of Large Tensors, by Journal Sessions will discover throughout the pro- Ming Yuan (Wednesday, Several journals have invited ses- gram, our field is healthier than August 1, 2 p.m.) sions to highlight some of the ever and full of energetic mem- best papers they publish. This Theory at the Intersection year, the following journals have bers ready to lead with statistics. of Machine Learning and sessions scheduled: On behalf of the JSM Program Statistics (Thursday, August 2, Committee, I wish you a won- 8:30 a.m.) Journal of Statistics Education derful JSM 2018 in Vancouver. Data Science for Social Good Sunday, July 29, 2 p.m. We hope you will learn from (Thursday, August 2, 10:30) JASA Theory and Methods and enjoy it as much as we did Monday, July 30, 8:30 a.m. preparing it! n

30 amstat news may 2018 meetings

Featured Speakers

ASA President’s Address and COPSS Awards and Fisher Lecture Founder & Fellows Recognition Susan Murphy Follow us on Harvard University Twitter Lisa LaVange “The Future: Stratified @AmstatNews Use #JSM2018 The University of North Carolina Micro-Randomized Trials with Applications in Mobile Health” Tuesday, July 31, 8:00 p.m.

Photo by Eliza Grinnell Wednesday, August 1, 4:00 p.m. Photo by Jon Gardiner UNC Chapel Hill Technological advancements in the field of mobile ASA Deming Lecture devices and wearable sensors make it possible to John L. Eltinge deliver treatments anytime and anywhere to users like you and me. Increasingly, the delivery of these US Census Bureau treatments is triggered by detections/predictions “Improving the Quality and Value of vulnerability and receptivity. These observa- of Statistical Information: Fourteen tions are likely to have been affected by prior Questions on Management” treatments. Furthermore, the treatments are often designed to have an impact on users over a span Tuesday, July 31, 4:00 p.m. of time during which subsequent treatments may be provided. In his landmark book, Out of the Crisis, W. Here, I discuss work on the design of a mobile Edwards Deming presented “Fourteen Points for health smoking cessation study in which the above Management.” Taken as a whole, his points reflected two challenges arose. This work involves the use of a profoundly humane and nuanced perspective on multiple online data analysis algorithms. Online improved management of large and complex orga- algorithms are used in the detection, for example, nizations. The exposition of those 14 points cen- of physiological stress. Other algorithms are used tered primarily on management of quality and pro- to forecast, at each vulnerable time, the remaining ductivity in manufacturing, but also was informed number of vulnerable times in the day. These algo- by Deming’s extensive experience with sample sur- rithms are then inputs into a randomization algo- veys. In addition, his commentary on these points rithm that ensures each user is randomized to each included substantial discussion of work by govern- treatment an appropriate number of times per day. ment agencies and other organizations that produce The stratified micro-randomized trial that statistical information for public use. involves not only the randomization algorithm, but a precise statement of the meaning of the treatment effects and primary scientific hypotheses, along with primary analyses and sample size calculations, is developed. Considerations of causal inference and potential causal bias incurred by inappropriate data analyses play a large role throughout.

may 2018 amstat news 31 meetings

Named Lectures IMS Medallion Lecture I IMS Medallion Lecture II Anthony Davison Ming Yuan EPFL Columbia University

Statistical Inference for Complex “Statistical Analysis of Large Extreme Events Tensors”

Sunday, July 29, 2:00 p.m. Wednesday, August 1, 2:00 p.m. Photo by Claire Cullen Davison Photo by Claire Photo by Bryce Richter Statistics of extremes deals with the estimation of A large amount of multidimensional data in the form events that have low probabilities but potentially of multilinear arrays, or tensors, arise routinely in large consequences, such as stock market gyrations, modern applications from such diverse fields as che- flooding, and heat waves. Often, the events of mometrics, genomics, physics, psychology, and signal interest have never been observed, and hence their processing. At the moment, our ability to generate probabilities must be estimated by extrapolation and acquire them has far outpaced our ability to effec- well outside any existing data. This area exhibits tively extract useful information from them. There is a beautiful interplay between probability and sta- a clear demand to develop novel statistical methods, tistics and has a long history and rich tradition of efficient computational algorithms, and fundamen- applications, originally in insurance and engineer- tal mathematical theory to analyze and exploit ing, but increasingly in the environmental sciences information in these types of data. In this talk, I and in finance. Statistical methods for modeling will review recent progress and discuss some of the scalar and multivariate extremes based on sample present challenges. maxima and threshold exceedances are well-established, but the focus has turned to more complex settings, including spatial and space-time modeling Public Lecture of extremal phenomena. In this lecture, I shall survey recent work on the topic and then show how Jeffrey Rosenthal detailed modeling for high-dimensional problems University of Toronto can be undertaken using Pareto processes, general- Born on Friday the Thirteenth: The ized versions of threshold exceedances, and gradient Curious World of Probabilities scoring rules. Monday, July 30, 7:00 p.m.

This talk will use randomness and probability to answer questions such as the following: Just how unlikely is it to win a lottery jackpot? If you flip 100 coins, how close will the number of heads be to 50? How many dying patients must be saved to demonstrate the effectiveness of a new medical DATA ART drug? Why do strange coincidences occur so often? How accurate are opinion polls? How did statistics help expose the Ontario Lottery Retailer Scandal? Explore the “art” in data art with Should parents be convicted of murder if two of this JSM exhibit featuring data their babies die without apparent cause? Can statis- artists. Located inside the exhibit tics explain luck and superstition? Why do casinos always make money, even though gamblers some- hall, it will explore the relationship times win? And how is all of this related to Monte between data and art. Carlo algorithms, an extremely popular and effective method for scientific computing? No mathematical background is required to attend. n

32 amstat news may 2018 meetings

Create Your Own Vancouver

The Vancouver Convention Centre is located at 1055Adventure Canada Place in downtown Vancouver along beautiful Vancouver Harbor. The location makes it convenient to squeeze in a little “tourist time” to your busy JSM schedule. Check out a few attractions you may want to scout out while you’re in Vancouver.

VANCOUVER AQUARIUM CAPILANO SUSPENSION BRIDGE PARK 845 Avison Way www.vanaqua.org 3735 Capilano Road North Open daily. See website for hours and www.capbridge.com ticket prices. Strongly recommend Open daily, 8:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m. purchasing tickets online in advance. See website for ticket prices. Museum of Penguins, sea otters, and 50,000 The 450-foot-long (137m), Vancouver 230-foot-high (70m) Capilano Photo courtesy of other aquatic creatures await your Tourism Vancouver arrival at Canada’s largest aquari- Suspension Bridge has thrilled um. Enjoy the new sea lion exhib- visitors since 1889. While the it, sea otter feeds, shark dives, and wobbly bridge and stunning loca- free-roaming animals found in the tion is a Vancouver landmark, popular Amazon Gallery. Capilano Suspension Bridge Park MUSEUM OF VANCOUVER offers an all-encompassing BC 1100 Chestnut Street experience. https://museumofvancouver.ca DR. SUN YAT-SEN Open Sunday–Wednesday, 10:00 CLASSICAL CHINESE a.m. – 5:00 p.m.; Thursday, 10:00 a.m. GARDEN CAPILANO SUSPENSION BRIDGE – 8:00 p.m.; Friday–Saturday, 10:00 578 Carrall Street a.m. – 9:00 p.m. www.vancouverchinesegarden.com Open daily Check website for hours Spark your curiosity with the and ticket prices. Museum of Vancouver’s inspiring collection of extraordinary trea- Named the World’s Top City sures. MOV’s featured exhibit, Garden by National Geographic, Haida Now, presents a visual Dr. Sun Yat-Sen Classical feast of innovation and tradition Chinese Garden was the first with an unparalleled display of classical Chinese garden in all of Haida art that boasts 450 works Canada. The jade green pond, koi created by carvers, weavers, pho- fish, collection of 150-year-old BILL REID GALLERY OF tographers, and print makers miniature trees, and tai hu rock NORTHWEST COAST ART from as early as the 1890s. While imported from China are some 639 Hornby Street visiting MOV, experience perma- of the delights the garden offers. www.billreidgallery.ca nent Vancouver history and neon Built in 1986 by 53 master crafts- See website for hours and ticket prices. galleries, support local artisans at men from China and 950 crates the MOV gift shop, and enjoy of traditional material, it was The gallery is home to the a stroll through beautiful Vanier constructed using 14th-century Simon Fraser University Bill Park on English Bay, situated methods—no glue, screws, or Reid Collection, alongside spe- between Kitsilano Beach and power tools were used. cial exhibitions of contemporary Granville Island. Northwest Coast Art. Highlights include stunning gold and silver jewelry, monumental sculptures, and a towering totem pole by James Hart of Haida Gwaii. may 2018 amstat news 33 meetings Getting Around GROUSE MOUNTAIN, THE PEAK OF VANCOUVER 6400 Nancy Greene Way North www.grousemountain.com See website for hours and Landsea tours mini-bus ticket prices. Photo courtesy of Tourism Vancouver Be sure to check out Vancouver’s public transportation system, Just 15 minutes from downtown, Translink, to easily get around the city, including the easy and inex- Grouse Mountain sits on the pensive SkyTrain Canada Line route with access from downtown to edge of wilderness and civiliza- the airport. tion. As Vancouver’s most vis- ited attraction, the resort’s unique BC FERRIES combination of soft adventure, north 155 miles along a string BC Ferries has two Vancouver sophisticated leisure, and rugged of glacier-fed lakes, the region ferry terminals, Tsawwassen recreation truly make it a must- is divided into seven distinctive and Horseshoe Bay, which see destination. sub-regions, each with different provide access to Vancouver climates and soil types. Along Island, the Gulf Islands, and with producing excellent wines, the Sunshine Coast. the wineries are known for their Tsawwassen, approximately 45 picturesque surroundings. minutes south of downtown Vancouver, provides service to VISIT WHISTLER Victoria (90 minutes), Nanaimo Although acclaimed for its win- (2 hours), and the Southern ter attractions, Whistler is a year- Gulf Islands (55 minutes – 3 round destination, with festivals, hours). activities, and fun for every season. Horseshoe Bay, about 45 min- A visit to the resort in the summer utes north of Vancouver, offers is the perfect time to try moun- service to Nanaimo (100 min- tain biking, play 18 holes on one utes), Bowen Island (20 min- of Whistler’s four golf courses, utes), and the Sunshine Coast hike the many mountain trails, (40 minutes). and enjoy al fresco dining. From May to September, skip the drive Stanley Park Seawall During peak months, fer- and take Whistler Air’s float plane Photo courtesy of Tourism ries run every one to two hours, service from downtown Vancouver Vancouver STANLEY PARK but schedules change dependant to Whistler and enjoy a view of the 735 Stanley Park Drive on the season. Reservations are mountains from the air. http://vancouver.ca/parks-recreation- available on some routes and rec- BOWEN ISLAND culture/stanley-park.aspx ommended during peak season and holiday periods. Visit the Looking to get away without Explore the 400-hectare natural BC Ferries website for current spending a fortune? Just take West Coast rainforest and enjoy schedules, fares, and reservations a trip to nearby Bowen Island, scenic views of water, mountains, or call (888) 223-3779 (in North which is a 20-minute ferry ride sky, and majestic trees along America) or +1 (250) 386-3431 away from West Vancouver’s Stanley Park’s famous Seawall. (international). Horseshoe Bay. Here, you can Discover kilometers of trails; Extend your trip with one or take in the laid-back vibe of rural beautiful beaches; local wildlife; more day trips, just a bit outside island life while exploring small great eats; and natural, cultural, of Vancouver. art galleries, cute shops, casual and historical landmarks. The eateries, and waterfront patios park offers a wide range of unfor- DISCOVER BC WINE along Snug Cove. This island also gettable experiences for all ages Boasting about half of the more offers plenty of opportunities and interests, including Canada’s than 270 BC wineries, the for outdoor recreation, includ- largest aquarium. Okanagan Valley is a five-hour ing hiking through lush rain- drive east of Vancouver. Running forests, swimming at serene from the Canada-US border, beaches, and mountain biking where the landscape is almost along forested trails. n desert-like, and continuing 34 amstat news may 2018 meetings

JSM for NEWBIES

he largest congregation of is now available at ww2.amstat. this combination of presenta- statisticians in the world org/meetings/jsm/2018/program. tion types, the oral portion is happens every August Because there may be more than given first in what is known as Tduring the Joint Statistical 40 concurrent presentations a “speed” session. A few hours Meetings (JSM). More than at any time, it is best to arrive later, the corresponding electron- 6,000 people attend these meet- at JSM with an idea of which ic poster presentation takes place. ings, which are sponsored by 11 to attend. This can be done by Online registration for JSM statistical societies, including the examining the session titles and begins around May 1. For mem- American Statistical Association. performing keyword searches in bers of a sponsoring statistical Christopher The meetings offer a variety of the online program prior to JSM. society, the cost is $455 during Bilder is a activities such as attending Oral presentations are separat- the early registration period. The Professor in the Department of research presentations, inter- ed into invited, topic-contributed, cost increases to $555 if you reg- Statistics at the viewing for jobs, taking profes- and contributed sessions, with ister at JSM. Registration for stu- University of sional development courses and each session lasting 1 hour and dent members is only $120, and Nebraska-Lincoln workshops, and browsing the 50 minutes. Invited and topic- this rate is available at any time. and a Fellow of exhibit hall. With so many contributed sessions include Also starting around May 1, you the ASA. opportunities, new attendees groups of related presentations can reserve a hotel room through can be overwhelmed easily by that were submitted together the JSM website. A number of their first JSM experience. and selected by JSM Program hotels near the convention center Based on my familiarity with Committee members. These are designated as official confer- attending meetings over the last presentations each last for 25 or ence hotels, and they discount 18 years and the experiences of more minutes for invited and 20 their normal rates. However, student groups I have led, I’m minutes for topic-contributed. even with a discount, you can going to provide some tips on Contributed sessions include expect to pay $200 or more per how to get the most out of JSM. groups of 15-minute oral presen- night for a room. If you would like to share your tations. Unlike invited and topic- Attending JSM can be own recommendations, I encour- contributed sessions, contributed expensive. Students have sev- age you to submit a comment at presentations are submitted indi- eral options to reduce the cost http://stattrak.amstat.org. vidually and then grouped by JSM burden. First, ask your adviser Program Committee members. or department for funding. Before JSM Poster presentations are also Many departments offer finan- Most new attendees who choose separated into invited, topic- cial support for students who to present their research do so contributed, and contributed present their research at JSM. in a contributed session via an sessions, with the vast majority in Students also may qualify for oral or poster presentation. The contributed sessions. These types funding from the student activ- deadline to submit an abstract of presentations involve speak- ities office on their campus. for acceptance into the program ers being available for questions For example, when I was a stu- was in early February. For those next to their displayed poster dent, my department’s statistics who did this, additional proof of during the entire session. Most club received funding this way, progress (e.g., drafts of a paper) posters are of the traditional which paid for most of my first for the presentation must be sub- paper format. An increasing JSM expenses. mitted by mid-May. number now are in an electronic In addition to school- A preliminary program list- format paired with a short four- based resources, many ASA ing the presentation schedule minute oral presentation. For sections sponsor student paper

may 2018 amstat news 35 meetings

IMPORTANT LINKS JSM 2018 ww2.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2018 (@AmstatNews) and Facebook learning, and quantile regression. accounts. Attendees at JSM can There are also many Professional Online Program use #JSM2018 to tag their JSM- Development courses and work- ww2.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2018/ related posts. shops available for an additional To welcome and orient new fee. However, you can attend a onlineprogram.cfm attendees, the JSM First-Time course for free by volunteering Attendee Orientation and prior to JSM to be a monitor. Job Seekers Reception is scheduled for early Monitors perform duties such ww2.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2018/ Sunday afternoon. At this recep- as distributing and picking up careerservice.cfm tion, docents will be present materials during the course. As (identified with a special orange an added benefit, monitors can Professional Development button by their name badge) to attend one additional course for ww2.amstat.org meetings/jsm/2018/ answer any questions you may free without any duties. Those professionaldevelopment.cfm have about the meetings. These who are interested should contact docents will be available through- Rick Peterson at [email protected]. out the conference as well. Featured talks at JSM are usu- competitions that provide Later on Sunday evening, ally scheduled for late afternoon travel support to award the Opening Mixer will be held on Monday through Wednesday. winners. For example, in the exhibit hall. This event is On Tuesday evening, the ASA the Biometrics Section open to all attendees, and drinks president’s address is given, of the ASA sponsors and hors d’oeuvres will be served. along with an introduction to the David P. Byar In between the orienta- the new ASA fellows and win- Young Investigators tion and the mixer, the ASA ners of the Founders Award. The Award, with $2,000 Awards Celebration and Editor fellows introduction is especially awarded to the win- Appreciation session is held. interesting because approximate- ner and separate $1,000 Many first-time attendees are ly 60 ASA members (<0.33% of awards given to authors of honored during it due to being all members) are recognized for other outstanding papers. Most awarded a scholarship or winning their contributions to the statis- competitions require a complet- a student paper competition. tics profession. Docents will be ed paper to be submitted many The main sessions start In addition to presentations, available throughout months prior to JSM. Sunday at 2:00 p.m. Many of the the JSM exhibit hall features more the meetings to answer research presentations are dif- than 90 companies and organiza- any questions—look At JSM ficult to understand completely. tions exhibiting their products for the orange button. JSM begins on a Sunday after- My goal for a session is to have and services. Many exhibitors noon in late July. Business casual 1–2 presentations in which I give away free items (e.g., candy, clothing is the most prevalent learn something relevant to my pens, etc.). All the major statistics attire, but some attendees wear teaching or research interests. textbook publishers and software suits and others wear T-shirts and This may seem rather low, but companies are there. Textbook shorts. When you arrive at JSM, these items add up after attend- publishers usually offer a dis- go to the registration counter at ing many sessions. count on their books during JSM the convention center to obtain For attendees who teach intro- and often for a short time after. your name badge (if not already ductory courses, the sessions The exhibit hall also includes mailed to you) and additional sponsored by the ASA Section electronic charging stations and conference materials. on Statistical Education are often tables that can be used for meet- There is a significant online the easiest to understand. Many ings. Additionally, it’s the location presence during JSM. A main share innovative ideas about how for the poster presentations. resource is the JSM app and to teach particular topics. The JSM Career Service pro- online program. Both con- Introductory overview lec- vides a way for job seekers and tain all the information you tures are another type of ses- employers to meet. Pre-registration will need, including a conven- sion that has easier-to-under- is required, and the fee is discount- tion center map. Also, the ASA stand topics. Recent lectures ed if you register before mid-July. posts the most up-to-date news have included introductions to The service works by providing about JSM through its Twitter variable selection, statistical an online message center for job

36 amstat news may 2018 meetings

STUDENT OPPORTUNITIES AT JSM seekers and employers to indicate Lara Harmon, ASA Marketing and Online Community Coordinator their interest in each other. Once a common interest is established, an re you an ASA student member? We’re hoping to see many of interview can be arranged for dur- you at JSM 2018! This year, we go abroad to Vancouver. In ing the meetings. addition to enjoying the program and the beautiful city, why Other activities at JSM include notA deepen your experience by volunteering? We have opportunities the following: for a range of time constraints and interests! • Shopping at the ASA Store Attend a Continuing Education (CE) Course for Free to purchase a statistics- themed T-shirt or mug JSM’s CE courses give conference attendees a chance to learn from experts they might not otherwise meet in person. As a volunteer CE • Attending an organized monitor, you can attend a course for free! CE monitors help courses roundtable discussion run smoothly and get to follow along with course content and meet during breakfast or lunch the instructor and attendees. Interested? Contact Rick Peterson, the about a topic of inter- ASA’s professional development and chapters and sections manager, est (pre-registration is required) at [email protected]. Keep an eye on the JSM 2018 website for a list of CE courses, and then let Rick know which one you would most like IMPACT • Taking a little time off to monitor when you contact him! VANCOUVER from JSM for sightseeing Interested in giving or attending a sporting Meet Presenters and Gain Experience Managing a Session back to the community event Session chairs introduce and support session presenters. These volun- while in Vancouver? Connect with other JSM After JSM teers help keep sessions on topic and on time, plus they get to meet attendees while making and work directly with session presenters! Session chair slots fill up, blankets (no sewing JSM ends in the early afternoon but don’t give up if they’re full—you can still volunteer as a backup. involved) to be donated on Thursday. Don’t let what hap- To learn more about what session chairs do and to apply, visit the JSM to Blanket BC, a local pens at JSM stay at JSM! The 2018 website, choose “Be on the Program,” scroll down to the “Chairs” nonprofit that provides first thing I do after the meet- bar, and click to see the details. blankets and warm clothes to area shelters. ings is prepare a short review Learn More About Student Chapters Meet in the exhibit hall of my activities. Using notes I Monday through took during sessions, I summa- Over the past few years, the ASA’s student chapter program has grown Wednesday between rize items from presentations I to almost 70 student chapters, spread all across the US. This year, we’re 11:30 a.m. and 1:00 p.m. want to examine further. I also hosting our second JSM student chapters meeting! If you’re a student to participate. summarize meetings I had with chapter officer, faculty adviser, member, or just interested in learning individuals about research or more about student chapters, join us for this chance to share ideas and other important topics. Much plan for the future. We’ll need a few helping hands to keep the meeting of this review process starts at running smoothly! Contact me, Lara Harmon, at [email protected] if the airport while waiting for you’re interested in helping with setting up and moderating the event. my return flight. We’ll let you know the time and place as soon as they’re determined. If you give a presentation at Meet Fellow Student Members from Across the Country JSM, you may submit a corre- (and the World) sponding paper to be published in the conference proceedings. Will this be your first time at JSM? Don’t miss the Student Mixer on Papers are not peer-reviewed in Monday, July 30, from 6–8 p.m.! Enjoy free food and drinks, enter our the same manner as for journals, free raffle, and mingle with other student attendees. Handing out raffle but authors are encouraged to tickets before the mixer takes a few pairs of hands—if you’re interested have others examine their paper in helping out, contact me, Lara Harmon, at [email protected]. before submission. The proceed- Chill Out and Chat While Helping People in Need ings are published online around December. Authors retain the Sometimes the blur of new faces and packed sessions can become a right to publish their research later little much and you just need some time to relax and chat casually. in a peer-reviewed journal. n Take a breather at the ImpACT Vancouver station in the exhibit hall! We’ll have everything you need to make no-sew blankets for home- less and family shelters. Grab a few friends and do a good deed while giving your feet a rest!

may 2018 amstat news 37 meetings

2018 NISS Writing Workshop for Junior Researchers (at JSM)

he National Institute of discusses ethical issues, writing Statistical Science grant proposals, issues of jour- (NISS) will hold a writ- nal choice, and understanding Ting workshop for junior and responding to reviewers’ researchers in statistics and data comments. At the end of this science during the 2018 Joint session, each participant meets Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, with the mentor who analyzed British Columbia, Canada. their paper. The Tuesday session focuses Objective on specific issues for partici- The goal of the workshop is to pants whose native language provide instruction for writing is not English, covering the journal articles and grant propos- writing process and details of als. Participants will be required grammar, sentence structure, to provide a recent sample of their and word choice. A panel of writing, which will be reviewed by senior researchers whose native a senior mentor. The sample could language is not English will be a current draft of an article to discuss their experiences with be submitted for publication or an technical writing in English. early version of a grant proposal. Senior mentors will be for- Audience mer journal editors and program The workshop is designed for officers, who will critique the researchers with a PhD award- submitted material and provide ed or anticipated during 2012– Registration individual feedback. 2018 in statistics, biostatistics, Workshop applicants are asked to Participants will be expected or a related field. Attendance register online, submit a writing to initiate a revision in response at the writing workshop will be sample, and confirm interest in with additional feedback from limited Applicants within 0–3 participating by paying the $100 their mentors. years post-PhD and members registration fee (if the submission The deadline for application of the participating societies is accepted). Depending on the submissions is June 1, with noti- will receive preference. availability of funds, travel and fication of acceptances on a roll- housing costs will be partially ing basis until June 20. Schedule Time reimbursed to those accepted. Part I: Sunday We strongly encourage work- Content July 29, 2018 shop participants to also seek The workshop consists of two 7:30 a.m.–3:30 p.m. additional funding on their own. sessions, plus a final meeting Convention Center If interested, register at www. with mentors. The Sunday tuto- niss.org/events/2018-niss-writing- rial is an all-day session that cov- Part II: Tuesday workshop-junior-researchers-jsm. ers scientific writing, as well as July 31, 2018 This includes a copy of your writ- how to organize a paper. It also 7:30 a.m.–10:30 a.m. ing sample. All submitted material Convention Center will be handled confidentially. n

38 amstat news may 2018 meetings

Applications Now Being Accepted for the Diversity Mentoring Program at JSM

2017 Diversity Mentoring Program participants and mentors

pplications are being accepted for the JSM Program activities include small-group discus- Diversity Mentoring Program, one of the sions and one-on-one meetings between mentor- initiatives of the American Statistical mentee pairs. Association’sA Committee on Minorities in Statistics. For more information and the mentee applica- The program is designed to promote the statistics tion link, visit http://community.amstat.org/cmis/events/ profession among under-represented minority pop- dwmp/dmp2018. Preference will be given to applica- ulations in the US (African-American, Hispanic/ tions received by May 31, 2018. For more informa- Latino, Native American). Graduate students, post- tion, contact Dionne Swift at [email protected]. n doctoral scholars, and early-career professionals are brought together with senior-level statisticians/biostatisticians and faculty in academia, government, and the private sector in a structured program during the 2018 Joint Statistical Meetings. This multi-day program (Sunday, July 29, through Wednesday, August 1) provides career information, mentoring, and networking activities.

may 2018 amstat news 39 people news

A Commitment to Community Reaches 10-Year-Old at StatFest Adrian Coles and Reneé Moore

This year’s youngest attendee Program Summary was 10-year-old Dawson Batemon, This year’s StatFest brought 150 who accompanied his mother, students and professionals to Erica Dawson, as she balanced Emory University to connect to professional and family service. and learn from graduate students; Erica is an epidemic intelli- early career professionals; and gence officer at the US Centers established leaders in academia, for Disease Control and industry, and government. Prevention. She was an invited In addition, participants ben- panel speaker who has learned efited from panel discussions that to use the often-unavoidable addressed topics such as careers in overlap between professional and statistics and the graduate student personal life to her advantage. experience. Participants also took She says, “I felt extremely advantage of structured activities comfortable bringing my son that helped enhance their net- to the workshop. Everyone working skills. welcomed and embraced him. Former ASA President Sastry StatFest has a sense of com- Pantula provided a special pre- From left: Nagambal Shah, Erica Dawson, Dawson Batemon, munity that enables participa- sentation that highlighted student Brian Millen, and Reneé Moore. Millen was the keynote tion from parents, like myself.” opportunities within the ASA while former ENAR president F. speaker for this year’s event. Dawson has accompanied her to Dubois Bowman provided insight Photo by Jesse Chittams several events such as this year’s into how to prepare for graduate StatFest and been exposed to the school admission. same guidance and wisdom used uilding supportive commu- A special presentation was nities within our broad to motivate high-school and held in honor of Nagambal Shah, field helps create pipelines undergraduate students. founder of StatFest. She was pre- Bthrough which talented individu- Dawson’s favorite subject in sented with flowers and a plaque als from all backgrounds can enter school is mathematics, and he to honor her initiation of this into our discipline. One such pipe- uses his mathematical skills as a annual event and her contin- line is StatFest, which is a one-day member of the LEGO Robotics ued contributions to the ASA’s conference aimed at encouraging Team at his school. Erica believes Committee on Minorities in undergraduate students from his- her love for mathematics and the Statistics (CMS). torically under-represented groups support she has received from The chair of this year’s StatFest to consider careers and graduate this community has contributed Planning Committee was Reneé studies in statistics. to his enjoyment of mathematics. Moore, chair of the ASA’s CMS. Organizers of StatFest typi- She says, “He gets a lot of StatFest 2018 will be held at cally endeavor to reach under- exposure to opportunities beyond Amherst College on September graduate and high-school stu- high school and undergradu- 23. Check the Committee on dents. However, they discovered ate studies. This normalizes the Minorities in Statistics website at their efforts to build communi- notion that people from under- http://community.amstat.org/cmis/ ty this year extended the pipe- represented groups can success- home for more information if you line to at least one person who fully earn advanced degrees in are interested in participating in is a bit younger. mathematical sciences.” the next StatFest or the CMS’s other key initiative, the Diversity Mentoring Program. n 40 amstat news may 2018 section • chapter • committee news

Arizona Chapter Members Participate in DataFest

he Arizona Chapter concluded its first ASA DataFest competition on MarchT 25 with excellent participa- tion from students of Arizona State University’s Tempe and West campuses. A total of 15 teams comprised of 49 students finished the weekend-long competition. Referred to as a data hack- athon, ASA DataFest challenges undergraduates to analyze a large data set from industry over a weekend and present their results before judges. From left: Arizona Chapter officers Jie (Jane) Pu, Yongzhao Peng, Shuo Jiang, and Rodney Many of the students began Jee; district vice chair Ji-Hyun Lee; and Jennifer Broatch of ASU-West Campus learning R for the competition, but at least one of the teams relied heavily on their training with specific languages or soft- students, she took time to talk in SAS for their data preparation ware tools and such effort was with members about the needs and analyses. Visualization was not wasted. Python and Tableau and opportunities for leadership one of the judging criteria, yet experts were announced upon roles in the chapters and ASA. n teams were seen learning to use a arrival and immediately found commercial package like Tableau teams seeking assistance in on the spot for their analyses and applying those tools to their presentations. A few teams ven- analyses. chapternews tured into building quick models, The competition finished ranging from logistic regressions, Sunday afternoon with student North Carolina to time series, to machine learn- presentations of their key find- The North Carolina Chapter offered the ASA’s sta- ing. Clearly, many of the stu- ings. The ASU site was fortunate tistical leadership course to its members in March. dents took up the challenges and to have a representative of the Gary Sullivan from the ASA’s ad-hoc leadership used the competition as a way to data donor among the panel of committee came to the Research Triangle Park area strengthen their technical skills five judges. A senior analyst from to lead a course that included personal reflection, while conducting data analyses. the health care sector provided group discussions, and targeted exercises to develop More than 30 mentors another perspective on judging. a greater awareness of leadership. signed up to help the students ASA members Steve Robertson of Local leaders involved in the courses includ- overcome DataFest’s challeng- Southern Methodist University, ed David Banks of Duke University and Abie es. Most of the mentors were John Stufken of ASU, and Ekangaki of biopharmaceutical company UCB. graduate students and faculty Ji-Hyun Lee of The University Banks spoke of his personal leadership develop- at ASU, but members of the of New Mexico rounded out the ment, from working in his role in government to Arizona Chapter saw many data panel. Lee, who is also the cur- his current position as director of the Statistical and professionals from local business rent Council of Chapters district Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute. Ekangaki and industry participating, too. vice chair, not only judged, but explained the differences between leadership and An attempt was made to also was present for the entire leaders and the implications of those differences find mentors who could help event. Besides working with the inside an organization’s structure. n

may 2018 amstat news 41 section • chapter • committee news sectionnews

Biometrics not typically taught in traditional program provided to learn from great statistics courses. Exploratory statistician! I believe the mentoring The Biometrics Section will data analysis, data visualization, program is a very beneficial and sponsor seven continuing edu- machine learning, and tidyverse successful program, especially to cation courses at the 2018 tools are just a few of the ‘essentials’ people who are new to the statistics field, like myself. Thank you very much! Joint Statistical Meetings in we will cover. And throughout the Vancouver. This month, we course, there will be an empha- And mentor Greg Ball says this highlight the following two: sis on three key skills needed for about his experience: Introduction to Bayesian you to succeed: creating, con- Really like the mentoring program. For Nonparametric Methods for necting, and computing. This me, in addition to being able to help Causal Inference half-day course is an ideal quick young statisticians get off to a good Instructors: Jason Roy and Michael guide for statisticians wanting to start, I like keeping a connection to Daniels gain practical knowledge about my roots. Wenlin and I have had some n Have you ever thought about try- data science. interesting and productive discussions ing more innovative approaches this year. Would like to see this program to causal inference, but you don’t Biopharmaceutical continue to expand. know how to begin? Bayesian non- Janelle Charles, Juliet Ndukum, and The goal of this program is to parametric methods (BNP) could Wen-Chi Wu be exactly what you are looking help members further enrich their The Biopharmaceutical Section professional experience through for! In this short course, these invites all section members to par- experts will review BNP methods achieving personal and profession- ticipate in the 2018 mentoring al goals. This may occur through and illustrate their use for causal program. inference in the setting of point sharing knowledge and experience Networking can be challeng- between a professional practitioner treatments, dynamic (longitudinal) ing but beneficial. Meeting oth- treatments, and mediation. The and someone entering the profes- ers in our profession can help us sion. A constructive mentoring BNP approach to causal inference quickly learn the ropes, improve has several possible advantages over relationship can take many forms our careers, and contribute to and occur at any stage of one’s popular semiparametric methods, the statistics profession. Finding including efficiency gains, the career with benefits for both the a mentor has its challenges mentor and mentee. ease of causal inference on any and, keeping that in mind, the We will provide hands-on functionals of the distribution Biopharmaceutical Section has cre- resources (https://bit.ly/2JEWozx) of potential outcomes, the use of ated a mentoring program based for mentors and mentees to facili- prior information, and capturing on the mentoring blueprint cre- tate their interactions. Information uncertainty about causal assump- ated by the Committee on Applied related to the mentoring activities tion via informative prior distribu- Statisticians. More than 100 people and additional resources for men- tions. You’ll learn even more from have participated in our mentoring tors and mentees is available via the a wealth of examples, supported by program since 2014. Biopharmaceutical Section website detailed instructions on software Mentee Wenlin Yuan has this to (http://community.amstat.org/biop/ implementation using R. say about the program: aboutus/sub-committees/mentoring). Data Science for Statisticians The mentoring program has been Are you interested in becoming Instructor: Rafael Irizarry extremely stimulating and satisfying a mentor and helping fellow bio- Do you possess the three key to me. My mentor, Greg, has been pharmaceutical statisticians? Are skills needed to succeed in today’s providing me lots of helpful advices you a potential mentee, or can you and has been answering all kinds of nominate a statistician who may be data science revolution? Come my questions regarding statistics study, to this course to find out! This research projects, career development, looking for a mentorship program? short course focuses on statistical graduate school application, and a If so, email your contact informa- thinking in today’s data science lot more. I really appreciate the time tion to biopharmmentoring@gmail. environment. Real-world data and effort that my mentor has been com with “Biopharmaceutical analysis examples will introduce devoted in helping me, and also Section Mentoring Program” in data science concepts and skills the opportunity that the mentoring the subject line. n

42 amstat news MAY 2018 section • chapter • committee news

Quality and Productivity There were 28 students We find that model complex- presenting posters, and three ity alters nonlinear relationships The Quality and Productivity prizes were awarded to the fol- between water and energy fluxes; (Q&P) section will offer one lowing students: for example, higher-resolution invited session at JSM 2018. First Prize, $400: Lauren M. models predicted larger reduc- Leading with Statistics: Process tions to snowpack, surface water, Monitoring and Improvement Foster, Colorado School of Mines and groundwater stores per degree will cover a range of important of temperature increase, suggest- and contemporary topics such When Does Uncertainty ing that warming signals may be as using baseline data in process Matter While Modeling underestimated in simple mod- improvement, control charts and Climate Change in Mountain els. Hydrologic impacts from multivariate process monitoring, Headwaters? Contrasting Model increases in temperature are robust and the real-time monitoring of Resolution and Complexity to variation in model complexity, events. Subhabrata Chakraborti of Under a Changing Climate in an Alpine Catchment but impacts from changes in pre- the University of Alabama is orga- cipitation are within uncertainty Alpine, snowmelt-dominat- nizing the session. bounds of model configurations. ed catchments are the source of Q&P is also sponsoring the This result corroborates previous water for more than one-sixth following two roundtable discus- research showing that mountain of the world’s population. These sions: systems are significantly more catchments are topographically sensitive to temperature changes Dynamic Data Visualization, complex, leading to steep tem- than to precipitation changes and led by Blanton Godfrey and Lori perature gradients and nonlinear that increases in winter precipita- Rothenberg of North Carolina relationships between water and tion are unlikely to compensate for State University. energy fluxes. Recent evidence increased evapotranspiration in a suggests alpine systems are more Preparing Statisticians to Be higher energy environment. sensitive to climate warming, but Successful Data Scientists in These experiments help to these regions are vastly simplified Big Data Era, led by Ming Li of bracket the range of uncertainty in climate models and opera- Amazon. n in published literature of climate tional water management tools change impacts on headwater due to computational limitations. Statistics in National hydrology, characterize the role Simultaneously, point-scale obser- Defense and Security of precipitation and tempera- vations are often extrapolated to ture changes on water supply The ASA’s Section on Statistics larger regions where feedbacks can for snowmelt-dominated down- in National Defense and Security both exacerbate or mitigate locally stream basins, and identify chang- (SDNS) sponsored the stu- observed changes. It is critical to es to climate impacts at different dent poster session prize at the determine whether projected cli- scales of simulation. Conference on Data Analysis mate impacts are robust to dif- (CoDA), which took place in ferent methodologies, including Second Prize, $100: Divya Santa Fe, New Mexico, March model resolution and complexity. Banesh, UC Davis/Los Alamos 7–9. Using high-performance National Laboratory, The prize has become a major computing and a representative Finding Change Points in Time- feature of CoDA and is a great headwater catchment modeled in way to introduce students to the Dependent Image Sequences Parflow-CLM, we determined the Based on Feature Analysis section. The conference high- spread of uncertainty in hydrologic Time-dependent sequences of lights data-driven problems of fluxes across 30 projected changes interest to the Department of images derived from simulated for the Rocky Mountains. These scientific models or imaged from Energy. Talks and posters feature projections were run on multiple research from the Department the experimental sciences can model configurations of varying range over long periods of time of Energy national laboratories, complexity, including 100m and academia, and industry. with many time steps. Often, this 1km resolution, a traditional land data can be cumbersome for the surface modeling single column scientist to parse, or extract perti- vertical flow, and subsurface 3D nent information specific to their lateral flow.

may 2018 amstat news 43 section • chapter • committee news

research. We present an analysis driven analysis methods that classifiers. We show how uncer- technique to extract change points quantify the uncertainty in their tainty propagates through the from a time-dependent image results. In this work, we explore two approaches and compare sequence using image processing the propagation of uncertainty the resulting classifications and and computer vision tools. We through multiple levels of data associated uncertainties. n use these tools to extract types of analysis. In many cases, the ulti- features that would be of interest mate result of a real-world data Physical and Engineering to a scientist and analyze changes analysis is the output of the final Sciences to these features over time. We stage of a pipeline of processing then apply change detection to and inference steps. While sta- Brad Evans, SPES Program Chair-Elect these features to extract time tistical uncertainty quantifica- steps that may be most interest- tion methods exist for individu- The Physical and Engineering ing to a scientist. To showcase al pipeline stages, methods that Sciences Section (SPES) will sup- these tools, we use a cinema data- systematically incorporate and port four roundtables as part of base of MPAS-Ocean image files. propagate uncertainty end-to-end JSM 2018. Roundtable discus- remain largely unexplored. sions are a great way to network, Honorable Mention: Michael share ideas, discuss topics of Darling, Sandia National We demonstrate one possible approach to uncertainty propaga- interest, and participate within Laboratories, University of New the SPES and statistical commu- Mexico tion on a multi-sensor supervised pixel classification task based on nities. For 2018, the topics are Uncertainty Propagation in co-registered optical and LiDAR the following: Multimodal Image Analysis images. The baseline classification • DOE: It’s not a one and The continued proliferation scheme uses the raw data as its done! Discussion will focus of remote sensing systems, par- features and estimates the uncer- on design as part of sequen- ticularly with respect to their use tainty in the assigned classes. We tial learning where the accu- in decision-making applications compare the baseline approach to mulated knowledge is based ranging from national security one in the data that is clustered, on scientific method and to climate science, has resulted and the cluster probabilities are leads to greater collaboration in increasing demand for data- used as features for supervised and success. • Go green, do good. Learn how you can support green engineering projects as a consultant or volunteer. Green science needs input from statisticians who understand REGISTRATION algorithms and uncertainty. • Have you always wanted to be a Bayesian? This roundtable IS OPEN! focuses on practicalities for successful Bayesian implementation based on examples from the medical device industry. • Sources of variation. Sure, “we” know what that means, but how do you extract this information from collabora- #LeadWithStatistics tors? This roundtable will focus on how to communi- cate this concept to project Register online at teams based on a broad understanding of the research prob- ww2.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2018/registration lem. When successful, this leads to greater collaboration and places statisticians as critical team members. n

44 amstat news may 2018 professional opportunities

Minnesota n The School of Public Health, University Professional Opportunity listings may not exceed 65 words, plus equal of Minnesota, seeks a division head to be opportunity information. The deadline for their receipt is the 20th of the appointed at the rank of full professor for month two months prior to when the ad is to be published (e.g., May 20 its division of biostatistics. The position for the July issue). Ads will be published in the next available issue follow- requires a well-established researcher, col- ing receipt. laborator, and mentor to be a visionary Listings are shown alphabetically by state, followed by international list- leader with skills to strengthen and fur- ings. Vacancy listings may include the institutional name and address or be ther develop our successful teaching and identified by number, as desired. research programs. This national search Professional Opportunities vacancies also will be published on the ASA’s will continue until filled. Submit applica- website (www.amstat.org). Vacancy listings will appear on the website for tion at https://z.umn.edu/ the entire calendar month. Ads may not be placed for publication in the jobopening322561. EOE magazine only; all ads will be published both electronically and in print. Rates: $320 for nonprofit organizations (with proof of nonprofit status), Virginia $475 for all others. Member discounts are not given. For display and online n Daniel H. Wagner Associates, Inc.—a advertising rates, go to www.amstat.org/ads. leader in mathematics, operations Listings will be invoiced following publication. All payments should be research, and software development—is made to the American Statistical Association. All material should be sent currently seeking bright, highly moti- to Amstat News, 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria, VA 22314- vated, self-directed individuals who are 1943; fax (703) 684-2036; email [email protected]. interested in solving real-world problems. Employers are expected to acknowledge all responses resulting from Applicant is expected to work closely publication of their ads. Personnel advertising is accepted with the under- with software engineers in developing / standing that the advertiser does not discriminate among applicants on designing algorithms / solutions for vari- the basis of race, sex, religion, age, color, national origin, handicap, or sex- ous DoD agencies. PhD in mathematics, ual orientation. statistics, physics, computer science, Also, look for job ads on the ASA website at www.amstat.org/jobweb. or related field. www.wagner.com/ contact-wagner-operations-research. EOE. n

RTI International invites applications for its Senior Survey Statistician position. In this role, you will work in a variety of elds, in the domains of public and global health, education and workforce, social science research, sample surveys, and the environment. You will have the opportunity to utilize your skills in survey sam- pling, experimental design, and complex data analysis. We take our mission “to improve the human condition” seriously and seek sta who resonate with it.

Quali cations: PhD in Statistics, Bio- statistics, or Mathematics with at least 10 years of nonacademic related experience and 5 years of experience with survey statistics. See www.rti.org/ careers (search “survey statistician”) for the complete position description and application information. We are proud to be an EEO/AA employer M/F/D/V.

may 2018 amstat news 45 46 amstat news may 2018 AMSTATNEWS ADVERTISING DIRECTORY

Listed below are our display advertisements only. If you are looking for job-placement ads, please see the professional opportunities section. For more job listings or more information about advertising, please visit www.amstat.org.

misc. products and services Case Western Reserve University...... p. 16 Penn State World Campus...... p. 8 professional opportunities RTI International...... p. 45 US Census Bureau...... p. 46 University of Minnesota...... p. 47 Westat...... p. 45 software JMP software from SAS...... cover 4

may 2018 amstat news 47 SOCIAL CHATTER What our followers are saying online

community. amstat.org James Earle • @James_Amstat We asked our follow- The @LaberLabs LaserFoxes game is a big hit again this www.facebook.com/ year at #SciFest! @AmstatNews booth 3512 to play. AmstatNews ers to sum up JSM in four or fewer words. @AmstatNews A few responded on Facebook: www.instagram.com/ AmstatNews Kelly Zou JSM Mentoring Opportunities Rock

Susie Chen Networking and Learning

American Mathematical Society • @amermathsoc Our fellow JPBM society partner @AmstatNews is NEXT MONTH : offering some activities involving #statistics at #scifest and helping to celebrate #Mathstatmonth We’ll ask our followers— If you could interview a famous statistician, who would it be? Make sure to tag @AmstatNews in your response.

48 amstat news may 2018 HELP US RECRUIT THE NEXT GENERATION OF STATISTICIANS The fi eld of statistics is growing fast. Jobs are plentiful, Site features:

opportunities are exciting, and salaries are high. • Videos of young So what’s keeping more kids from entering the fi eld? statisticians passionate about their work Many just don’t know about statistics. But the ASA is • A myth-busting quiz working to change that, and here’s how you can help: about statistics

• Send your students to www.ThisIsStatistics.org • Photos of cool careers in statistics, like a NASA and use its resources in your classroom. It’s all biostatistician and a about the profession of statistics. wildlife statistician

• Download a handout for your students about careers • Colorful graphics in statistics at www.ThisIsStatistics.org/educators. displaying salary and job growth data

• A blog about jobs in statistics and data science If you’re on social media, connect with us at www.Facebook.com/ThisIsStats and • An interactive map www.Twitter.com/ThisIsStats. Encourage of places that employ your students to connect with us, as well. statisticians in the US Tatsuo Ya mamoto Statistician and Statistical Consultant, W.L. Gore & Associates

Great software in the right hands can change the world.

At W.L. Gore, innovative experiments elevate the R&D process. Waterproof materials made from foolproof science.

Read about W.L. Gore’s success, and ﬁ nd out how JMP can help you change your world: www.great.jmp

SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc. in the USA and other countries. ® indicates USA registration. Other brand and product names are trademarks of their respective companies. Copyright © 2017, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. 156200.0517US

JMP-Gore-ad-FINAL-AMSTAT.indd 1 8/9/17 5:27 PM